Smash Ultimate Leak Discussion Thread

[ThatOneAnon]

It’s funny. Every time I get optimistic in thinking the box theory might be wrong, something kills that hope real quick.
This also basically confirms the blog theory’s dead, too.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

On the music theory, here's the remaining series

Star Fox
Earthbound
Retro series
Kid Icarus
Wario
Wii Fit
Punch Out

Sonic
Bayonetta
Final Fantasy (Not getting any)
Pac-Man (unless the Galaga theme counts)

Did I miss any?

 

[Deoxys911]

Sakurai today: We won't be announcing characters at the same pace through release.
4chan anon later today: The next Direct will be October 4th, here's a description of everything in it and a list of the 15 remaining newcomers. (Sorry, no pictures, I'm Amish.)

 

[iruchii]

Well so much for being optimistic that music theory was wrong. I'm pretty much sold on just Ken, Incineroar and either Square base rep or Square first day dlc.

This really goes against what most people say against box theory whether it's "Why would they slow down closer to release?" or "Last direct gave us 5 characters I can't see the next giving us only 2". I'd be interested in seeing Source Gamings translation. Number of reveals might just be reffering to directs correct? As in there is only one more direct, but it could have 5 new characters? Need to wait and see what the full translation says.

Edit: This translation mentions the "pace" of new character reveals not the number. I'm not sure if trigger happy makes more sense for pace or number, but yeah based on this short translation it could mean 4-5 newcomers in one direct is still a possibility. Yay word connotations!

I checked the original myself. Sakurai explicitly means character reveals, not Nintendo Directs. He makes it clear that he feels he revealed too many characters continuously instead of spreading them out. But yes, it could mean they just won't announce anything soon, and are saving a big reveal for November or something. Don't lose out hope, I guess!

On the music theory, here's the remaining series

Star Fox
Earthbound
Retro series
Kid Icarus
Wario
Wii Fit
Punch Out

Sonic
Bayonetta
Final Fantasy (Not getting any)
Pac-Man (unless the Galaga theme counts)

Did I miss any?

Missing Xenoblade!

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Smash hype is not fun anymore.
I do not enjoy the speculation anymore as all it has lead to is me getting less hyped for the game rather than more hyped. This latest statement from Sakurai has intensified that feeling.
It’s too late to get off the hype train now, though.
At this point I’d be happy if Ultimate got cancelled, since at least then I wouldn’t need to worry about it anymore.
The box theory is right, and Sakurai has abandoned us. Sorry, guys.

 

[Ring-a-Sheep]

Never did buy into the box theory but either way if we get more than two newcomers or not i wouldn't be disappointed if we ended off with what we got, having every vet back plus the currently known newcomers is more than enough for me to be happy with the game.

 

[Nap_]

Uh, even Sakurai saying to us to lower the hype. Nice thing that the box theory killed mine already. Hope that the last Direct become awesome or with a DLC teaser.
But, if only Ken and Incineroar left, lest check out what we got:
-Whole Smash 4 roster, some fighters with changes.
-6/7 returning veterans: Pichu, Young Link, Pokémon trainer (Ivysaur, Squirtle) , Snake, Ice Climbers, Wolf.
-6 new fighters and 6 echoes.
Talking only about the roster still are good numbers, every veteran returning would take a good portion of time for sure.

 

[lightdrago]

Smash hype is not fun anymore.
I do not enjoy the speculation anymore as all it has lead to is me getting less hyped for the game rather than more hyped. This latest statement from Sakurai has intensified that feeling.
It’s too late to get off the hype train now, though.
At this point I’d be happy if Ultimate got cancelled, since at least then I wouldn’t need to worry about it anymore.
The box theory is right, and Sakurai has abandoned us. Sorry, guys.

Geez, you make it sound like the end of the world is upon us. Being happy if Ultimate got cancelled makes literally no sense.

Every vet is returning. Stages have been revamped. The music is awesome. Characters thought to be impossible have been added. Sakurai saying “we’re slowing down reveals” killing your hype is sad. Makes me think you were never really hyped for this game to begin with.

Sakurai hasn’t abandoned us. Really, he’s giving the fans what they want this time around, and that should make many fans happy.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Never did buy into the box theory but either way if we get more than two newcomers or not i wouldn't be disappointed if we ended off with what we got, having every vet back plus the currently known newcomers is more than enough for me to be happy with the game.

I guarantee most of you saying you won’t be disappointed are all gonna turn around and say how disappointed you are when Ultimate comes out.

 

[Pyra]

Good morni--

*Looks at sakurai saying Character announcements will slow down*

*Looks at my prediction about Geno in October*

Welp. I'm still gonna die on this hill. It'll happen. Fight me.


They did, to be fair, reveal Daisy, Ridley, Simon, Richter, Damus, Chrom, K. Rool, and Isabelle between June and September (8 over a span of 4 months).
So, about 2 a month characters per month (average, not literally).

This confirms to me that yes, there isn't an exorbitant amount of newcomers remaining (of course). I imagine maybe 3 characters remaining max, 1 in a general direct and maybe 2 in a Smash direct and that's it?
Or, just 2 in the Smash direct in Octvember. I think it's reasonable to expect a Smash direct but also that it's the only direct with Smash information left.


tl;dr:
Nothing's really changed too much, temper your expectations as always, and october lol

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.

Now I’m gonna start hyping responsibly. If Sakurai himself said to be mindful then I will heed his words.

My guesses for what we have left before DLC are:

Unique:
Incineroar
Geno
Elma

Echoes:
Shadow
Ken
Dixie Kong

 

[Fatmanonice]

I'm not sure. People listened to Sakurai so much with SSB4 to lower our expectations until we were practically crawling on the floor, that is, until Gematsu fell through and later DLC was announced. It could also mean to not expect a giant info dump again like the August Direct. My base expectation is still 6 characters: three original and three echoes.

 

[Pyra]

I'm not sure. People listened to Sakurai so much with SSB4 to lower our expectations until we were practically crawling on the floor, that is, until Gematsu fell through and later DLC was announced. It could also mean to not expect a giant info dump again like the August Direct. My base expectation is still 6 characters: three original and three echoes.

That's what I'm leaning to.
I'm still standing by 5 characters base remaining prediction but I was saying in my other post that 3 max sounds reasonable too.

Like always though I mean we won't know until we get more news.

 

[Deleted member]

Hey box theorists, check this out [original source here]. Sakurai said we should expected announcements to slow down, making me think we either won't have an October Direct (saving everything for a later November Direct?) or we really... aren't getting many new characters. He especially mentions they went overboard and might've been mistaken in revealing so many characters upfront.

You guys knew this was coming so: I told you so.

 

[iruchii]

I think 6 characters (3 unique, 3 echo) like Fatmanonice and TyrantLizardKing are saying is a fine prediction, although an optimistic one. I expect most fake leaks to not go over that amount, and we can (probably) dismiss any that does.

My 6 character wishlist is:
- Elma
- Lip/Ayumi Tachibana/Retro rep
- Geno
- Ken (e)
- Dixie (e)
- Medusa (e)

 

[Luigimon98]

You guys knew this was coming so: I told you so.

Not quite yet.

He means the amount characters in a direct, not the number of characters left, so jump into the "LOWER YOUR EXPECTATIONS" bandwagon just yet.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Not quite yet.

He means the amount characters in a direct, not the number of characters left, so jump into the "LOWER YOUR EXPECTATIONS" bandwagon just yet.

Good lord, the denial.
Just accept the fact that the dream is dead. I know I have.

 

[Luigimon98]

Good lord, the denial.
Just accept the fact that the dream is dead. I know I have.

Not until the release comes.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Smash hype is not fun anymore.
I do not enjoy the speculation anymore as all it has lead to is me getting less hyped for the game rather than more hyped. This latest statement from Sakurai has intensified that feeling.
It’s too late to get off the hype train now, though.
At this point I’d be happy if Ultimate got cancelled, since at least then I wouldn’t need to worry about it anymore.
The box theory is right, and Sakurai has abandoned us. Sorry, guys.

I guarantee most of you saying you won’t be disappointed are all gonna turn around and say how disappointed you are when Ultimate comes out.

Good lord, the denial.
Just accept the fact that the dream is dead. I know I have.

You know the phrase "hype responsibly"? You're doing the equal and opposite, irresponsibly anti-hyping.

 

[Pyra]

Good lord, the denial.
Just accept the fact that the dream is dead. I know I have.

This is like... the equivalent of the crazy people walking around major cities with signs saying the world is ending.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

I guarantee most of you saying you won’t be disappointed are all gonna turn around and say how disappointed you are when Ultimate comes out.

I've been battling this community to get Snake back for 10 years and I got him back. Along with Simon a character I love but never dreamed of getting but got anyways. Along with Ridley who I've been rooting for for 10 years. Along with K. Rool who I've been supporting for 10 years. I may have not gotten Isaac but if you expect me to come back here on December the 7th still hyped for DLC and turn around and say "yeah, Ultimate is disappointing." You are sorely mistaken.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

This is like... the equivalent of the crazy people walking around major cities with signs saying the world is ending.

You know the phrase "hype responsibly"? You're doing the equal and opposite, irresponsibly anti-hyping.

whyareyoubooingmeimright.jpg

 

[Pyra]

I guarantee most of you saying you won’t be disappointed are all gonna turn around and say how disappointed you are when Ultimate comes out.

Wanna bet? **** could be delayed and I'd still be happy with the game lol

oh woe is me for being okay with the roster as it is

 

[MylesMad]

*clings to Golden Sun cartridge*

 

[Zinith]

Like I've said, I'm okay with the roster as is and Boshi would only be a bonus, nothing more...

 

[Deleted member]

This happened last time but it's not like anyone will listen to me, just look at ChronoBound, dude always makes some great long posts but everyone just knocks him off as the anti-fun guy. Users here never do listen to those who experienced past speculation periods, hell, I'm guilty of that too so I guess it's futile to try to convince you guys. "Oh but this is different from past games" or "this is not Brawl/Smash 4" are things I'll hear as attempts to justify their unrealistic predictions, and yes, this isn't those periods but it's still the same. Sakurai's design philosophy may change but the way game development works doesn't and there's always so much time and resources one can put into a game.
Don't act like this is some disappointing outcome, this game has had more than enough content to please these 'boards, so focus on what is there rather than what isn't, this is a problem a lot of people don't deal with, Mega Man's inclusion in Smash 4 was largely overlooked because people focused on what WASN'T there. Mega Man, who might as well have been the biggest newcomer announcement after Sonic.

The only ones who will be disappointed are those who refused to listen and had unrealistic expectations. We tried to warn you, but you didn't listen, now there's no avoiding the fall.

 

[CosmicQuark]

We may have been a little trigger-happy so we’ll be living modestly from here on out.

Wha? This is a weird statement, to say the least. Doesn't sound like something that would be said about something as carefully controlled and based on marketing analytics as a Nintendo game. Seems to be 6 characters is the fun topic now (though, given this statement, I wouldn't be surprised if it's less). If I'm given six characters, with what we know from Verge:

1. Incineroar
2. Ken (e)
3. Banjo & Kazooie
4. Shadow (e)
5. Dixie (e)
6. Geno

 

[GAINAX]

Best thing about the Box theory is that I don't have to worry about Steve being on the front cover and ruining the artwork.

 

[Fatmanonice]

I know not everyone was here during SSB4 speculation but we were all practically telling each other GG after E3 '14 when Gematsu had gotten everything right so far and that Chrom, Shulk, and the Chrous Kids were supposedly the only things left to confirm. Like now, expectations were incredibly low and a lot of people got indignant or even belligerent if someone suggested that Gematsu was wrong or didn't know everything. Then Robin and Lucina were announced instead of Chrom and that boosted people's spirits again. Instead of three newcomers (boy, doesn't that sound familiar?), it wound up being six: Lucina, Robin, Shulk, Dark Pit, Bowser Jr, and Duck Hunt. That said, don't completely evaporate your expectations but also keep them in check because, realistically, I'd say 8 is super optimistic while anything above is largely dillusional.

 

[Pyra]

The only ones who will be disappointed are those who refused to listen and had unrealistic expectations.

Besides me. I do it cause I like to gamble and it's fun getting wild guesses right

If people could master the art of betting against the grain, and knowing full well it's unlikely, and having fun with it, it's less of a bar fight and more of a drinking game.

But it's long since slipped into bar fight territory on SmashBoards haha.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

This happened last time but it's not like anyone will listen to me, just look at ChronoBound, dude always makes some great long posts but everyone just knocks him off as the anti-fun guy. Users here never do listen to those who experienced past speculation periods, hell, I'm guilty of that too so I guess it's futile to try to convince you guys. "Oh but this is different from past games" or "this is not Brawl/Smash 4" are things I'll hear as attempts to justify their unrealistic predictions, and yes, this isn't those periods but it's still the same. Sakurai's design philosophy may change but the way game development works doesn't and there's always so much time and resources one can put into a game.
Don't act like this is some disappointing outcome, this game has had more than enough content to please these 'boards, so focus on what is there rather than what isn't, this is a problem a lot of people don't deal with, Mega Man's inclusion in Smash 4 was largely overlooked because people focused on what WASN'T there. Mega Man, who might as well have been the biggest newcomer announcement after Sonic.

The only ones who will be disappointed are those who refused to listen and had unrealistic expectations. We tried to warn you, but you didn't listen, now there's no avoiding the fall.

You either temper your expectations or stay hype long enough to see yourself let down.

 

[iruchii]

Wha? This is a weird statement, to say the least. Doesn't sound like something that would be said about something as carefully controlled and based on marketing analytics as a Nintendo game.

If you mean the term "trigger-happy" being used, that was just a translation liberty. Sakurai does mean something akin to that in the original, though, just more formally. I do agree it's weird for them (as in, Nintendo's marketing team) to not have thought this through instead of going 'whoops' later.

 

[SSB4Dojo]

With sakurai seemingly frontloading the reveals, it does make the ending seem a little less awesome but I got my main three wanted characters with inklings, ridley and krool and also got my boy snake back so when I finally am sitting and playing the game, I won’t be thinking as much as what could have been in the base game, just enjoying what I got with knowledge that dlc should still happen.

 

[ubiblu]

Sakurai's new column excerpt is a good reminder to take stock of the journey since E3 in June 2018:

Six (6) Veterans (IceClimbers/Pichu/YoungLink/PokemonTrainer/Snake/Wolf)
Five (5) Newcomers (Inkling/Ridley/Simon/KingKRool/Isabelle);
Four (4) Echoes (DarkSamus/Daisy/Chrom/Richter);
Three (3) Character Redesigns (Link/Zelda/Ganondorf)

We have 15 (!!) new playable fighters since Smash Wii U, on top of the insane reality that Mega Man, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, and Bayonetta are all still hanging around. Now this is before additional characters are announced in both the pre-launch period and DLC period, and were all revealed in the course of 3 months.

The Smash hype cycle is like no other, but sometimes it's nice to sit back and just look at what we've already got over such a short period of time.

Whether we get two more characters, or twenty more after all is said and done: this is going to be the Ultimate Smash Experience.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

With sakurai seemingly frontloading the reveals, it does make the ending seem a little less awesome but I got my main three wanted characters with inklings, ridley and krool and also got my boy snake back so when I finally am sitting and playing the game, I won’t be thinking as much as what could have been in the base game, just enjoying what I got with knowledge that dlc should still happen.

And what will happen when DLC is inevitably disappointing as well? Hm?

 

[Luigimon98]

And what will happen when DLC is inevitably disappointing as well? Hm?

Do you realize the amount of potential new fighter that can be added in the game?

 

[Nekoo]

>People still expecting more than 5 Newcomers

GG guys.
Honestly Worst case scenario (I don't know how it's worst case because we will get another Square-Enix Character)
>Ken
>Incineroar
>SE Character

Best case scenario:
>Ken
>Incineroar
>SE-Character
>Steve
>Echo

Like I genuinely believe that realistically we will get 3 max 4 Characters and 5 is being optimistic

 

[I_DON'T_KNOW_YOU!]

We should only expect Ken and Incineroar for base roster, and the Square Enix character and Steve? as DLC.

 

[Akg0001]

And what will happen when DLC is inevitably disappointing as well? Hm?

Dont be so pessimistic bro. Have faith in sakurai :D

 

[CosmicQuark]

If you mean the term "trigger-happy" being used, that was just a translation liberty. Sakurai does mean something akin to that in the original, though, just more formally. I do agree it's weird for them (as in, Nintendo's marketing team) to not have thought this through instead of going 'whoops' later.

I meant the latter, that's it's weird for them to make such a cautious response despite having been carefully planned, rather than an issue with the literal words used in translation. We should heed his caution, nonetheless.