CUTS
: Honestly, I think he's in the weakest spot of the three Smash 4 clones. He's literally Mario as a doctor, which is less than compelling for anyone who isn't a Melee fan, he doesn't have Lucina's home series favouritism or Dark Pit's director bias, and he's leagues worse than the original Mario. Furthermore, his additional differences make him less likely in my opinion, as he's less of a "free dessert" than the other two. I can't see Mario changing more than 2 moves for Odyssey, and to me that's not enough to make the Doc worth keeping.
: Given that there's 2 clones of Marth and the aforementioned favouritism of Intelligent Systems towards Lucina, I think they'll double down on making her more unique with a couple of things from Roy and a few lance attacks.
: More trouble than they're worth in a time when Nintendo is clearly phasing out Miis. I don't think Sakurai will burn time on fighters who can't go online and are probably the least loved in the game.
RETURNEES
: Self-explanatory, they were only cut for technical issues on 3DS that don't exist, they should be back. However, given that they have abused unhealthy techniques in the past, if they revive chaingrabbing or something similar by virtue of their design, I think they're best left in the older games.
: He didn't deserve to go. A couple of things from Zero (Lightning Tornado UpB and Hunter for the Final Smash) and a little polish on his animations and we're good to get him back. He should be higher priority that ICs in my opinion.
NEWCOMERS:
Waluigi: He's a gem of the Mario spin-offs and has infinitely more potential than Captain Toad, Pauline and especially Daisy
*shudders*. Waluigi is one of the few recognisable faces, particularly for casual fans, that Smash has yet to give. I think it's his time.
King K. Rool: Dixie could go here, and in many respects she's more likely than him. However, irrespective of how polls are a skewed perception of the fanbase, the Mii costume with all-new assets tells me the ballot must've done something for him.
Daitouryou: The retro character. I haven't had one on previous drafts and I doubted the chances of this guy before, but representing pre-video games Nintendo with a Gambit fighting style is something I'm now open to, and it's one of the few retro options that's actually believable to me in how off the wall it is.
Ridley: Again, one of the last all-stars that Smash has to offer. I still think he can work and Smash 4 seems like tey at least tried, so I hope Sakurai finishes what he likely started. It's not as if he hasn't changed his mind before.
Takamaru: He has more recognition overseas than when he was rejected from Smash 4 due to a number of factors, his Assist Trophy shows Sakurai cares and he's one of the few characters Sakurai has expressed a desire to include in interviews who missed out. His placement here next to Zelda, Metroid and KI is one of the reasons I added him in the first place, let's get the Famicom 4 back together.
Mimikyu: One of the most popular Gen 7 Pokemon, has a stupid amount of marketing, potential for a nice gimmick with Disguise (I'd say armouring through the hitstun of the first 20% damage dealt before its Disguise breaks and the hurtbox changes), and a nice foil to Pikachu that doesn't copy him at all. My 2nd most wanted newcomer.
Elma: Xenoblade X came out right around the time Smash 5 started development and is one of the last Wii U games left that's worth representing in a game like Smash. 3 Xenoblade characters may seem like a lot, but the series has had one of the strongest growths of any Nintendo series since Smash 4 and the characters lend well to introducing fighters with enthralling new mechanics. Additionally, I think Elma is our Vifam rifle character with her Skell.
Rex & Pyra: Speaking of new mechanics, their affinity link would be awesome. I think these two are likely the Ike/Greninja of this game as their concept art was completed around the time Sakurai would have been devising a roster plan for the game, and Sakurai both likes the series and is aware of it's changing cast of characters. The reason I included these two but not Spring Man is simply due to them being for an existing IP, rather than a new untested one, so I think Sakurai would have been more likely to look into them when considering all-new Switch characters.
Bandana Waddle Dee: He's a major Kirby character now, no doubts about it. A pure spear fighter is something we don't have at all, Kirby easily deserves 4 characters and he's just a wholesome, beloved character worldwide who likely did pretty well in the Ballot among Nintendo characters.
Isabelle: My Animal Crossing knowledge is extremely limited, but given her explosive popularity and strong promotion, I think she's seriously likely for this game. You don't just waltz in as a guest character to Mario Kart without Nintendo wanting to promote the hell out of you.
Henry Fleming: This is a new post-Smash 4 IP that has a lot of elements likely appealing to Sakurai being from Fire Emblem's devs. Again, I haven't played it but I'm interested, and the idea has potential. Biggest stop here is that the game sold dismally, Sakurai may shine a light of redemption on it but I'm not gonna lie, this is by far my least confident pick and one I just added to get more new Nintendo franchises in the game rather than safe picks. Mentally substitute Roy or Spring Man in here at your leisure.
Dillon: He's eShop representation, he's big enough there to be making the jump to physical releases and he has a lot of potential. Tower Defence games are an interesting thing to represent. Once again I haven't played it, so apologies for not goin deeper on these last few, but the chances are there.
Octoling and Yarn Yoshi: I think most people can tell by their position, but I think that dessert clones, despite their mixed reception in Smash 4, are quite a safe bet given the large amount of characters in this game and ease of implementation. I picked 2 that represented the 2014-2016 era in the same way Dark Pit and Lucina were new 3DS characters, and are fairly safe costume bets, but characters like Alph, Dr Mario and Funky Kong have a chance here too. Naturally I think these 2, Lucina and Dark Pit all stand to have at least a few more differences from their bases than what Smash 4 gave us, but still in the realms of easy additions.
Rayman: Ubisoft is cosy with Nintendo right now, and more 3rd Parties are a given. One of the safer 3rd Party bets in this game. Not much else to say here.
Monster Hunter: Monster Hunter is a huge, huge deal in Japan. 3 Capcom characters is the only thing that stands in the way of this Japanese Juggernaut making it into Smash and if 2 wasn't too many, neither is 3. I think this is a pretty underestimated pick for the game.