How does Toad have more potential? You haven't mentioned anything he can do.
- There is no "can't jump" problem. You can recover without "jumping". You can animate a character jumping without him actually jumping. Captain Toad can just have an animation where he's abducted by Wingo or Flaptor in place of him jumping: https://www.technobuffalo.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Captain-Toad-Treasure-Tracker-3.jpg
- You mentioned plucking turnips, but if there's a version of Toad that's known for plucking and throwing turnips, it's Captain Toad.
- I just can't stress how much Toad over Captain Toad is a bad idea. Captain Toad is an actual character with an actual personality. Nothing has changed for Toad so he isn't any more likely now than he ever was. Whereas Captain Toad is actually a significant character in the 2014-2016 era of Nintendo.
- If you use the generic version of Toad, you forfeit his ability to appropriately reference Captain Toad. The only source of personality and source material to make Toad an interesting SSB fighter.
- Captain Toad has plenty of source material. Infinitely more than Toad. Pick Axe, Turnips, Wingo, Headlamp, Small Toad, Cannon, Double Cherries, Keys, Other Toad Brigade Members,.
Captain Toad is just oozing with material for moves, taunts, stages, music, trophies, victory poses/themes, personality, references, and all of which are tied to a specific game. It's stuff that's actually original to him and not forced into a character that doesn't have it (Toad).
This is a character who's actually done something as of late worthy of notice. It is the golden opportunity to make Toad the best he can be as a Super Smash Bros fighter. To sell him short and make him a generic Toad, the same generic Toad that was used as a human shield, who people are so desperate to make a move set for that they give him Mario Kart items, is truly a slap in the face to both Toad and Super Smash Bros as well as the cast of the game.
And it's an even bigger slap in the face if you try to suggest that he have these things without being Captain Toad.
Let's just deconstruct every single argument here.
1. Smash, as a platform fighter, is heavily focused on movement and control over both ground and air, with jumping being an essential part of gameplay that allows players to enter the air, which makes up about half of a fight. To suggest removing an essential movement option, and limiting his aerial abilities to an Up Special, is asinine. Or alternatively, if you're suggesting that every time Toad jumps, a bird appears to carry him, that doesn't come off as clever or unique, it comes off as desperate to create a workaround.
2. Toad has been associated with plucking and throwing things since Super Mario Bros. 2. His first solo outing, Wario's Woods, also has him plucking and throwing things. Captain Toad is not special in that regard.
3. Captain Toad, as a character, is just the mainline Toad character in a new costume. It stings, but it's true. Same mushroom cap, same heroic demeanor, same role as "main Toad", it's the same character. Captain Toad is just their attempt at making it a bit more streamlined.
4. You don't "forfeit" moveset potential by changing one costume to another. By that logic, you shouldn't be able to use any of the Master weapons w/ Mega Man without changing colors. Or use any of the various Copy Abilities like Cutter / Hammer / Fighter without changing appearances as Kirby. Or using nearly any attack as the EarthBound boys without changing to a completely different party member.
5. Out of all the things you mentioned, the only ones that could remotely be considered for Cpt. Toad would be turnips, the pick axe, double cherries, maybe the cannon, and the Toad Brigade as a Final Smash. Wingo is a humongous boss that would be the equivalent of having Samus' recovery involve Ridley, the headlamp is a stretch, keys are just REALLY scratching the bottom of the barrel... and Small Toad? Really? The depowered, vulnerable, "about-to-die" form is considered a plus in favor of his addition? What moveset potential does getting hit and shrinking possibly have?
Now, don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Captain Toad in Smash. But this argument isn't sound. Instead of making workarounds like "birds carry him when he jumps" or "he uses pivotal items like keys", why not let him take inspiration from the literal years of Toad characters and just use the abilities from SMB2 / Wario's Woods / etc? And also, why not translate the "can't jump" as horrible vertical recovery? Maybe he can jump just a little, but his backpack's so heavy he fastfalls? Or maybe, he can take the backpack on and off to store items in the pack, or allow him better recovery? Trade off mobility for an expanded kit?