Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Knight Dude]

It's because of Mewtwo I don't think Sakurai will be so quick to cut supremely popular characters. I feel as if Mewtwo was meant for Brawl but Sonic did him in.

He also probably was someone that was meant for base roster of Smash 4 but timing pushed him to be the starter for DLC.

With the way you described it, I just thought of Sonic pushing Mewtwo down a flight of stairs to get into Brawl.

 

[Cosmic77]

Honestly, you could pull pros and cons for each of the three clone characters.


Dr. Mario:
Pro: The most unique of the three clones.
Con: Literally supposed to be the same character he was cloned from, just with a doctor's coat. Already cut once before.

Dark Pit:
Pro: Comes from a series Sakurai created.
Con: Most poorly received of the three clones. The series he comes from hasn't been active lately.

Lucina:
Pro: Extremely popular and comes from an active series. The only exclusively female FE rep.
Con: Series is thought to be overrepped in Smash. Least unique of all FE characters and is cloned from a character who already has a more unique semi-clone.


Anything can happen. There's nothing that provides solid evidence as to which of these clones would be the highest priority for Sakurai. We could get two of them. Could get only one of them. All could return, or all could get cut.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

With the way you described it, I just thought of Sonic pushing Mewtwo down a flight of stairs to get into Brawl.

: You're too slow!
:
:

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

The most wanted playable Chaotix member was Vector. Both Mighty and Espio saw some support, then there's Charmy who is unwanted.

Next is a poll focusing on classic Sonic characters who were obscure, but came back into the limelight recently. Your choices are Nack the Weasel (Or Fang as you prefer), Bean the Dynamite, Bark the Polar Bear, and Ray the Flying Squirrel.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Begin.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I’m starting to think that if it comes down to cuts, Lucina would be kept over Roy for example because of how much easier she would be, and the fact that she’s extremely popular.

Not to mention, with Marth and Ike effectively being the series mascots (or at least two popular lords from older games), and Robin, Lucina and Corrin being pushed in newer media like Fire Emblem Warriors, Roy is the only one who doesn’t have that kind of support.

By the way, I like playing as Roy. I would like to think he wouldn’t be cut, but Lucina is easy to make in comparison.

I don’t like talking about cuts though, so i’ll leave it there.

 

[Questionmark222]

Actually, if 5mash is a half sequel (like Majora's Mask or Splatoon 2), I don't see any reason to cut any of Sm4sh's characters, since the assets are already there to make them work. The only cuts I can see happening are for third-party characters that would get pulled out for potential licensing issues, but I doubt it, since all the third party companies that have characters in Sm4sh have a good relationship with Nintendo (even Square Enix with Octopath Traveler).

 

[TimidKitsune129]

For Fire Emblem, I think we're getting back the six we currently have now and get no new additions this game.

Sakurai has acknowledged that having six FE characters is too much, though that doesn't necessarily mean we are getting cuts. It would depend on how much priority the characters have and how smoothly development goes.

To be honest, I'm not sure why an FE16 "rep" is expected among the Smash fanbase. Maybe after Corrin they think the lord of the newest game is required? Though Corrin getting in was them getting lucky more than anything. When Sakurai was looking for a character to use for promotion as DLC, Fates just so happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Perhaps another reason an FE16 or SoV character is expected is because we've gotten a new FE addition in every game since Melee? I guess I could see why people would think that, though if I've learned anything from Smash speculation it's that relying on patterns is usually not a good idea.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

For Fire Emblem, I think we're getting back the six we currently have now and get no new additions this game.

Sakurai has acknowledged that having six FE characters is too much, though that doesn't necessarily mean we are getting cuts. It would depend on how much priority the characters have and how smoothly development goes.

To be honest, I'm not sure why an FE16 "rep" is expected among the Smash fanbase. Maybe after Corrin they think the lord of the newest game is required? Though Corrin getting in was them getting lucky more than anything. When Sakurai was looking for a character to use for promotion as DLC, Fates just so happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Perhaps another reason an FE16 or SoV character is expected is because we've gotten a new FE addition in every game since Melee? I guess I could see why people would think that, though if I've learned anything from Smash speculation it's that relying on patterns is usually not a good idea.

Actually, Sakurai didn't just think 6 FE characters was too much, he already felt FE was overrepresented before Corrin was added.

Also, this whole "FE is keeping all it's characters and getting no new characters" argument reminds me of when people assumed there would be no Pokemon newcomer in Smash 4 and that we we more likely to just keep the Brawl ones. Time will only tell if history will repeat itself.

 

[Freduardo]

So where does everyone see the inevitable Splatoon stage going.

I see inkopolis square with random squid sisters or off the hook concerts if you play smash during splatfests or something like that.

 

[LOLey21]

Tbh I hope they add most clone characters as new skin pallette. We've already seen differences between different costumes with Bowser Jr.
Iggy (I think) had a bigger hurtbox than the rest. Maybe they could apply changes like this between those costumes. That way we could have for examble original Mario, Doctor Mario AND Odyssey Mario in one single Character slot kind of... The same with Marth, Lucina and Roy... They wouldn't have to cut them ^^
I'd like the idea =D

 

[DMWN]

I basically stopped posting once Roy was confirmed for Smash 4 back in June 2015 (I made only a few posts since then, only one in 2016, and none in 2017).

I intended for Smash 4 to be the final game in the series I would do any speculation for. I have lost nearly all of my interest in speculation and anticipation for future Smash Bros. titles. Nearly every character I wanted in has gotten in, and the few left that I care for, have sub-50% prospect of getting in at this point (most notably and unfortunately, Ridley).

However, due to this Smash Bros. installment having a very small speculation window from its unveil (Brawl's unveil to release date was 1 year and nearly nine months, Smash 4 was a year and three months, and assuming Smash Switch does release in December 2018 at the latest, it will be only nine months). At this point (ignoring how long the DLC period is, assuming there is DLC), there are only eight months of speculation left.

I have been out of the loop for nearly three years now. However, there are a few that wish for me to come back and do some more analyses for this upcoming Smash Bros. Truth be told, I am not anticipating this Smash Bros. game like I did the previous four titles. There has been an interest for me to do a reprise of my ULTIMATE character analysis topic that I did for Brawl and Smash 4. I will do as much.

There are 23 series now do analyses for (Mario, Donkey Kong, The Legend of Zelda, Metroid, Yoshi, Kirby, Star Fox, Pokemon, Mother, F-Zero, Fire Emblem, Wario, Pikmin, Kid Icarus, Animal Crosssing, Wii Fit, Punch-Out, Mii, Xenoblade, Splatoon, Retro, New Series, and Third Party), so it will take a lot of time to get everything done (I did not even finish the analyses for Pokemon, Fire Emblem, and New Series for Smash 4 due to how much more busy I was). However, I plan to get out one new series analysis every week (which will give me the pacing necessary to gradually chip away at the meatier and more time consuming series to properly analyze).

I did not plan on returning, and in many ways, my return is like that of a phantom. I do not intend to be at the forefront of speculation this time around, and there are many others who have taken up that baton. Like Miyamoto's suggestion to Itoi for the re-start of Mother 3's development, my place on the speculation scene will be that of a small play. I hope that through me publishing yet another iteration of my analysis topic that it gives the speculation scene a sense of continuity and history (my first detailed analyses were made over a decade ago).

I hope that my analyses offer some sober and detailed insight into the prospects of characters many cherish and desire to make either a reprisal or a grand debut in what is likely to be the biggest Nintendo release of the year. I also appreciate if any of you would help provide materials such as polls or particular official developer statements regarding contenders for Smash Bros. for the Switch (Smash 5... or Smash 6?). I will post a list of "contenders" (characters with at least a 25% prospect of being in the next Smash Bros. according to my own personal assessments) either later tonight or tomorrow. Please feel free to to PM me with any materials or links that you feel would be integral to a character's analysis and overall assessment.

It is my hope and ambition to have most of my analyses done months before the next game's release, and updating analyses as new information comes accordingly.

I might drop in a few threads to put my two cents in. It was really the fact that Smash 5/6 ended up happening so soon after the end of Smash 4 DLC (two years after Bayonetta and Corrin were released), and that there is still some interest in my work that I returned to do analysis for this game in the series. Had the next Smash Bros. title had the same break between announcements as Brawl and Smash 4 had (Brawl was announced when Melee was 4.5 years old, and Smash 4 when Brawl was 5.5 years old), I would likely have not even had interest to do a reprisal of the ULTIMATE analysis topic.

Regardless, I hope I can offer some interesting insight and have a different presence this time around than I did when I speculated for Melee, Brawl, and Smash 4. I hope I can offer encouragement to other speculators and the fans of particular characters as well, and I see a lot of good work with the next generation of speculators during the twilight of Smash 4 (such as PushDustin's website). It is good to be back.

Right, erm...
...
...Who are you supposed to be?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So where does everyone see the inevitable Splatoon stage going.

I see inkopolis square with random squid sisters or off the hook concerts if you play smash during splatfests or something like that.

I'm thinking Inkopolis as the main setting but the sage gimmicks of proper Splatoon stages thrown in.

 

[92MilesPrower]

If anyone from Fire Emblem is returning, it's gotta be Marth and Ike definitely. Robin is likely staying too, because of their uniqueness, the importance of Awakening for the franchise, and because of their popularity. Lucina I can either see as staying as her own separate character, or as a skin for Marth, I doubt she's getting cut because of her popularity, and how she can easily be put in because of her qualities as a Marth clone with very slight differences. I would prefer her as just a skin, though, to not have a wasted roster slot again.

Roy and Corrin are different cases that I'm not too sure about, to be honest, but if only one had to return, it'd likely be Roy. In Smash 4, he was made DLC before even the ballot, because of fan outcry for his return, and because of this, he'd likely return on the base roster, or as DLC again. Corrin, on the other hand, despite their popularity, was put in mostly as an advertisement for Fates, and because of this, can very likely get cut because of Sakurai stating that he felt there was already too many Fire Emblem characters before they were put in. If a new main series Fire Emblem is also announced sometime soon, the main character from that game can easily end up replacing Corrin. Corrin could be DLC, however, because of their popularity, but I don't see them on the base roster regardless.

 

[splat]

Right, erm...
...
...Who are you supposed to be?

Might wanna tone down the snark, Chrono is one of the most well-known and knowledgeable figures during pre-Smash speculation.

 

[SoccerStar9001]

The Fire Emblem talk is basically going in circles. X might get cut because of Y. X is probably staying because of Z.

Though I won't say anyone is right or wrong, I actually hope every characters returns while having a new FE reps. To me, the more the merrier.

 

[92MilesPrower]

The Fire Emblem talk is basically going in circles. X might get cut because of Y. X is probably staying because of Z.

Though I won't say anyone is right or wrong, I actually hope every characters returns while having a new FE reps. To me, the more the merrier.

Sakurai has outright stated that he felt that even just 5 reps for FE was too much, so unless he takes that statement back and we get lucky like we did with Pokemon in Smash 4, either somebody's gonna get axed, or there won't be any newcomers. Fire Emblem may be very popular, but it's not as important as Mario, for example, which it almost has the same amount of reps as, when it really shouldn't. That enough outright screams overrepresentation.

 

[FlareHabanero]

The Fire Emblem talk is basically going in circles. X might get cut because of Y. X is probably staying because of Z.

You can say the same thing for every other discussion honestly.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I don't think FE will have a newcomer, unless the FE Switch protagonist is overly interesting, and Sakurai knew who he/she was.

 

[Wyoming]

I think Lucas will be cut as we will have a new blonde representative in BOTW Zelda.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

We have reps based on hair color now?

 

[Wyoming]

That's right.

We needed that red hair again with Roy. Now we need a green hair character.

 

[TheMagicalKuja]

Yeah, I'm still at a loss on why people expect Gen 8 Pokemon or FE16 protagonist when we know nothing about either. Even in the case of Roy, his game was probably a known quantity in Japan. And Corrin's game had been out in Japan. No such thing is happening here.

 

[FUNT1MER]

I just developed a theory as to why spyro wasn’t announced for switch . Nintendo likes to announce those things themselves and what better way than to reveal spyro for smash? I know I’m crazy.

 

[Deleted member]

That's right.

We needed that red hair again with Roy. Now we need a green hair character.

Now we need Toon Link to be replaced by ALttP Link. Gotta rep that pink hair.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

For all we know, Fire Emblem 16 could be a remake of a game with one of the current Smash characters. Bamboozled!

To be honest though, if we know nothing about Gen 8 Pokémon by E3, I would be incredibly surprised if we didn’t get an Alolan Pokémon. Smash Switch has to be entirely out by the end of 2018 (if not October or November even). They aren’t going to debut a character in Smash before a game is even revealed. That would be an...interesting marketing approach.

Personally I think Fire Emblem could get away with not adding anybody but retaining their current cast. It embodies the Smash staples (Marth, Roy, Ike) while including the new blood (Robin, Lucina, Corrin). I do like the idea of Celica, but I don’t know that she’s a necessary addition. At the same time i’m not sure that Sakurai, a dude who already thinks Fire Emblem is well off, would add another character unless he totally felt they added something that we couldn’t afford to miss.

I do expect a Gen 7 Pokémon however. As always, Decidueye would be my pick.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Yeah, I'm still at a loss on why people expect Gen 8 Pokemon or FE16 protagonist when we know nothing about either. Even in the case of Roy, his game was probably a known quantity in Japan. And Corrin's game had been out in Japan. No such thing is happening here.

Thing though is that we do know that Pokemon and Fire Emblem games on the Nintendo Switch are in development.

The tricky part is that we don't know anything else, such as what the games are or how far they are in development. But based on past experiences, we might get another "promotional" character again like what happened with past games. That's why we can't exactly dismiss the possibility.

 

[Deleted member]

Sorry for the late response.

From what I've seen, Mipha is the most popular Champion (particularly in Japan) worldwide, with Urbosa as the runner-up. Revali isn't as popular as Urbosa in NA and EU, but he does seem to almost match her in Japan. Daruk is the only Champion who doesn't seem to be very popular in any country, but I'm assuming that's mainly because his personality doesn't make him stick out as much as a lovesick Zora or a tsundere Rito.


Anyway, to respond to your comments, none of the Nintendo characters we got in Smash 4 (bar Mewtwo) were popular or iconic enough to the point to where a majority of fans would be incredibly disappointed if they were absent from the game. Were Rosalina, Shulk, and Robin "needed"? Not really. Would people flip out if Greninja, WFT, and Dark Pit were excluded? Again, not really.

I understand your argument, but it seems like you're exclusively applying it to the Champions and the Zelda series. An absence of newer characters like Decidueye and Rex/Pyra would be disappointing for Pokemon and Xenoblade fans respectively, but they aren't crucial inclusions that people wouldn't be able to get over. Both are likely to be completely irrelevant by their next game. Still, that doesn't mean Sakurai shouldn't consider them. They're both characters that fans of their franchises would recognize, especially those who picked up Sun/Moon or XC2 as their first game of the series. Same thing applies to the Champions.

Personally, I feel like the Champions did enough in BotW to make them stand out and be remembered, and after getting amiibo and a special DLC focusing on them, I definitely believe there's a market out there for the Champions. Yes, Link and Zelda would probably be enough to attract some BotW fans, but a new character like Mipha or Urbosa would be even more effective. They're not required, but that applies to practically every franchise now, doesn't it?

That was my argument throughout this whole time, I said as much in my last reply to you. Not once did I say that it only applied to the Champions and the Zelda series only that they were an example of characters that aren't needed. Granted I could have phrased it better but I'm not doing this because I have a vendetta against a Champion character.

I think we've gone on long enough. At least I can say I'm glad you engaged with me on this.

For all we know, Fire Emblem 16 could be a remake of a game with one of the current Smash characters. Bamboozled!

To be honest though, if we know nothing about Gen 8 Pokémon by E3, I would be incredibly surprised if we didn’t get an Alolan Pokémon. Smash Switch has to be entirely out by the end of 2018 (if not October or November even). They aren’t going to debut a character in Smash before a game is even revealed. That would be an...interesting marketing approach.

Personally I think Fire Emblem could get away with not adding anybody but retaining their current cast. It embodies the Smash staples (Marth, Roy, Ike) while including the new blood (Robin, Lucina, Corrin). I do like the idea of Celica, but I don’t know that she’s a necessary addition. At the same time i’m not sure that Sakurai, a dude who already thinks Fire Emblem is well off, would add another character unless he totally felt they added something that we couldn’t afford to miss.

I do expect a Gen 7 Pokémon however. As always, Decidueye would be my pick.

I want that Fire Emblem 6 remake already. Give to us Intelligent System!

...then Roy gets to be in Smash forevah!

 

[CBO0tz]

Now we need Toon Link to be replaced by ALttP Link. Gotta rep that pink hair.

Toon Link's got a second Classic colored outfit could be recolored to look like ALttP link.

EDIT: Also tbh I think if Toad became his own character, Peach's neutral B should be her two-handed shotgun cannon from Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.

 

[DMWN]

Might wanna tone down the snark, Chrono is one of the most well-known and knowledgeable figures during pre-Smash speculation.

Yea okay, but that's no excuse to hype oneself up and drop cringey one-liners like "my return is like that of a phantom"

Anyway, on-topic:
I'd prefer it if the roster was kept as intact as possible--minimal cuts. I think even Lucina has her merits in keeping her own character slot.

 

[Superyoshiom]

So do we think that Bayonetta changed the no guns rule? Or were her guns just out there and fantasy enough to be an exception?

I think her guns got away with being unrealistic enough not to set off any alarms. I'd argue that a character like Dante also wouldn't break those rules. The problem only arises when a realistic human character is using a realistic gun that can be matched to a real-life model.

 

[RandomAce]

I have seen a lot of people talking about if a lord or Pokémon from FE16 or Pokémon Switch can get in. Personally, it’s more likely that we’ll get a FE16 character simply due to the fact that FE16 or whatever it’s called is also coming out this year, unlike Pokémon where we don’t even know it’s release year.

And even if we don’t have an FE character in the base roster, later down the line when FE16 ends up getting released we could still see a FE16 character added as DLC. Same thing with Pokémon when Gen 8 comes out.

I think it’s possible that there will be Smash DLC throughout the switch’s whole lifespan to add content based on new switch releases in order for Smash 5 to be more in line with this generation games and IPs so it won’t be generation behind like all the previous Smash games were.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

EDIT: Also tbh I think if Toad became his own character, Peach's neutral B should be her two-handed shotgun cannon from Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle.

Let us appreciate that we are now at a point where we can have posts saying "Give Princess Peach a Shotgun in Smash" and not have it be a troll post.

Been a nutty few years, hasn't it?

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I think Lucas will be cut as we will have a new blonde representative in BOTW Zelda.

We already have enough blonde female characters, though.

Spoiler

Dixie disconfirmed

 

[Tree Gelbman]

If Captain Toad gets in then no changes to be done to Peach however. Honestly if Toad got in as just Toad. I doubt you could really see much fuss over Peach's B being the same. They're a species after all.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I have seen a lot of people talking about if a lord or Pokémon from FE16 or Pokémon Switch can get in. Personally, it’s more likely that we’ll get a FE16 character simply due to the fact that FE16 or whatever it’s called is also coming out this year, unlike Pokémon where we don’t even know it’s release year.

Getting a FE16 character (assuming they cannot be last-minute clones) in the base roster would be the equivalent of getting a FE10 character in Brawl as that game was released in the same year Brawl was originally intended. But we didn't. We got Ike, who was based off Path of Radiance, a game that was released in the same year the Brawl roster was finalised.

If anything, we're more likely to get Celica, seeing as Shadows of Valentia was even originally meant to be released in the same year the Smash Switch roster was likely finalised, similar to how Mother 3 was meant to be released in the same year the Brawl roster was finalised before being bumped up to 2006.

 

[Superyoshiom]

I have seen a lot of people talking about if a lord or Pokémon from FE16 or Pokémon Switch can get in. Personally, it’s more likely that we’ll get a FE16 character simply due to the fact that FE16 or whatever it’s called is also coming out this year, unlike Pokémon where we don’t even know it’s release year.

And even if we don’t have an FE character in the base roster, later down the line when FE16 ends up getting released we could still see a FE16 character added as DLC. Same thing with Pokémon when Gen 8 comes out.

I think it’s possible that there will be Smash DLC throughout the switch’s whole lifespan to add content based on new switch releases in order for Smash 5 to be more in line with this generation games and IPs so it won’t be generation behind like all the previous Smash games were.

On the other hand, DLC during the game's lifetime on the Switch means there'll barely be anything left to add by the next game. For example, Inklings are arguably this game's biggest newcomer, but DLC could have easily added them to the last game.

 

[Pakky]

I hope they have a Kremlings mode in the release of Tropical Freeze as DLC or if a new DKC is coming which I think it is based on the rumors they should really bring them back.

Also I kind of like the not-so Tiny, Tiny Kong.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I'm starting to lean into the rumor that Smash Switch isn't a new gen and will just revisit Gen 1.

If that's the case we might just get a Gen 7 Pokemon, because outside of Meowth or Eevee I don't think anyone from Gen 1 is iconic enough to represent that era of Pokemon for the 900th time, especially when Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Mewtwo, and Charizard say more than enough for that Generation.

 

[Icedragonadam]

A whole month gone since the direct and still no word.

It's starting to feel like the Roy/Ryu-Cloud period again.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Yea okay, but that's no excuse to hype oneself up and drop cringey one-liners like "my return is like that of a phantom"

Better than snark.