Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[N3ON]

To be fair, I wouldn't say Sora is on the level Ryu, Cloud, and Slime are in terms of being iconic. Not yet, at least.
The slime is known throughout Japan, and decently recognizable here. Cloud is... Cloud. He's Final Fantasy's poster boy. I don't think I need to say much for Ryu. It isn't as if the slime is Nintendo-only, but it's Nintendo-also. DQ currently has games on multiple consoles, the Switch as well, which is one thing it has on top of Geno and Sora. It would bring in fans of the franchise, fan of the franchise on other consoles, and fans of the franchise on their own console.

If he's not at that level, he's close. I don't think you'd encounter many people who'd question whether his pedigree warrants Smash inclusion.

And of remaining third-parties, he'd rank pretty highly on the list, especially if you narrow it down to SE. Slime may be a bigger icon in Japan, and Lara Croft may be a bigger icon in the west, but I'd argue that Sora has more balanced global popularity than either of those two. Not to minimize them as choices. Though I doubt we'd get Lara.

 

[Hydrualic Hydra]

If we get a first-party Nintendo character my money would be on Bandana Dee. He's proven his popularity, being easily one of the most (if not the most) requested characters in Japan, he's all but guaranteed to keep showing up in the Kirby series, and he's more than likely the most popular first-party ballot choice that has yet to be hard deconfirmed. But I only take bets I've already won, anything could happen, but Elma feels too old to be relevant as DLC now, Dixie doesn't seem to be quite as popular worldwide, Nintendo seems to wish to do away with Paper Mario, and I don't want to open the can of Waluigis.

Pokemon Gen 8 doesn't really need any kind of promotion, we got Incineroar as our usual new Pokemon and Pokemon doesn't need Smash's help at all to sell. Fire Emblem used to need it when the only steady game they had was Awakening, but the success of Heroes in particular makes it seem unnecessary to keep promoting it with Smash, now that it easily stands on its own.

The 3rd-party pool is plentiful, and the choices really do depend on whether the Big N is willing to lean towards Sakurai's 'for the fans' philosophy, or towards the 'for the money' philosophy that's only natural for a business. A Squeenix character in general will make mad bank, even Geno, given his proven popularity within the Smash community. I'm unwilling to make a call on exactly who, but I'd be shocked if it weren't one of Geno, Sora, or [insert your DQ rep here]. A Bethesda rep, Crash Bandicoot, a Koei Tecmo character, and Rayman feel like big names to keep an eye on. A Microsoft character would be a huge way to end off.

My best guess is
Bandana Dee
Squeenix rep [at gunpoint I say Sora]
Crash Bandicoot
Rayman
Microsoft rep [at gunpoint I say Banjo-Kazooie]

 

[Union of Darkness]

They aren't exactly wrong.

Why do you know just the right words to make me hurt?

 

[MyDude213]

LaxChris intensifies

Lax is seriously the Ali-A of smash content I don't think there's really any other Smash YouTube channel with his amount of seriously bad clickbait.

 

[FirestormNeos]

>a 2B ship that isn't 2Bx9S or 2BxA2

dededisgusting.

anyway, here are my Square Enix preferences:

1. 2B
2. Aqua from Kingdom Hearts
3. Sora
4. Adam Jensen
5. a 2nd Final Fantasy Rep + More Final Fantasy music for Smash
6. Other Kingdom Hearts Reps
7. Lara Croft
8. Any female Square Enix character not on this list
9. Other Deus Ex Reps
10. Literally Everything Else
11. A literal pile of trash
12. a 2nd Final Fantasy Rep but no more Final Fantasy music

like, ***** a mother****in PIRANHA PLANT is in nothing matters anymore. let people pine for whoever they want. there are no rules now.

There aren't? then I want Wonder Woman.

The rage the would ensue if Lightning from FFXIII was the Square Rep

I'd be down with her in Smash.

Nintendo: *teleports behind you and adds 4 FE characters for DLC*

 

[ChronoKatie]

ugh smh another Fire Emblem character

u wot m8?

 

[Royalty1702]

Wait, so why are we so certain that Nintendo didn't make the line-up two years ago?

 

[Cereal Bawks]

Unfortunately I think they will never put a secondary character instead of the main protagonist

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Robin's a better example. Lucian was an afterthought addition to the full roster(instead of being a costume).

Also, please don't post media-only replies.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

But we got Robin.








Don't kill me Opossum

 

[osby]

It all comes to whether you think Robin or Chrom is the main character, actually. I'd say they are kinda on the same ground.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

u wot m8?

It's Marisa from Sacred Stone breh

 

[NineS]

If he's not at that level, he's close. I don't think you'd encounter many people who'd question whether his pedigree warrants Smash inclusion.

And of remaining third-parties, he'd rank pretty highly on the list, especially if you narrow it down to SE. Slime may be a bigger icon in Japan, and Lara Croft may be a bigger icon in the west, but I'd argue that Sora has more balanced global popularity than either of those two. Not to minimize them as choices. Though I doubt we'd get Lara.

truth be told, and i'm ashamed to say this, i had thought that kingdom heart's was a niche franchise, at least here, up until i saw everyone's reactions this year's E3.

People may be aware of him existing, but I'm not so sure if they actually know of him too much. Granted, anecdotal evidence is the weakest kind of evidence.
Saying he's anywhere near Cloud, Slime, or Ryu's level of being iconic is saying a bit much, though. He's certainly seems to be more popular in Japan than here, however.
He's certainly popular as well here, but not as well known or "iconic". Again, though, that may just be subjective.

 

[KMDP]

What the hell is he going to do when DLC ends.

If he's smart, he'll already be branching off into other things.

Isaac
Isaac
and of course Isaac

Isaac
Adult Isaac
Matthew

Sounds about right.

 

[TeenGirlSquad]

The fact that Sakurai is preemptively acting defensive should be enough to tell you something about the DLC tbh

 

[N3ON]

I don't think Lucina or Robin are particularly good counterarguments considering one is a clone and the other only got in because the most MC of the three was such a derivative SNOOZE it put Sakurai to sleep until someone suggested Robin.

Or perhaps a less biased recounting of events. You guys know what happened. Point is, you wouldn't run into that problem with DQ.

 

[ChronoKatie]

It's Marisa from Sacred Stone breh

Errr Jade could actually make for a very interesting character. She's all about allure and using spears and fisticuffs. The aesthetic of a character should not dictate their uniqueness.

 

[MyDude213]

He's backed himself up into a corner. Smash was his gold fountain, and it's running out.

I can guarantee you what he's gonna do is talk about who's in the next Smash game for like 5 years or however long it takes for Smash to come out after DLC. Because what do you do when you're a clickbait channel with a dying purpose to clickbait? Easy you clickbait twice as hard as before of course.

 

[NineS]

Wait, so why are we so certain that Nintendo didn't make the line-up two years ago?

..Second time I've had to quote this post:

Alright, since we're all losing our minds now, I'm going to put my thoughts down on this and try to clear some things up.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate’s DLC line-up is now complete. This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo. I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan.

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) November 6, 2018

First off, please note that Sakurai is saying "Super Smash Bros. Ultimate’s DLC line-up is now complete." Not that it has been complete, or they completed months ago. But that it is now complete. As in, they've only now finally finished choosing the DLC characters and thinking of how they'll work. Not that they've finished creating them, as it hasn't been nearly long enough since the game has gone gold to finish them.
This means there's a chance that, in fact, recent characters (anyone from games after early 2016) could be part of the DLC lineup. Of course, this goes against what he said the final smash direct, but yet again, what he said in that direct goes against what Bill had said about how they were handling Smash DLC.

Second off, please note what he said. "This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo." This doesn't mean no 3rd Party characters.
It means that, we may get a lot of 1st Party characters, but some 3rd Parties as well. Nintendo chose them, but they could've chosen them for promotional reasons, trying to gather attention for franchises on the switch, or games coming to the switch soon that we've yet to hear of, 3rd and 1st party. This doesn't eliminate 3rd parties entirely, but it limits our options to "Which 3rd parties would Nintendo want in Smash? How would it help them for this 3rd party to get in smash besides making money off of DLC?" Geno's chances are hurt, because we don't know how badly Nintendo themselves want him. DQ's chances increase immensely because of this, as are Chocobo's or any FF character's. Sora's chances are, admittedly, very hurt as well. However, characters like Sora and 2B (Basically 3rd party franchises who've yet to have a game on the switch, but can get one in the nier near future) potentially have a chance if their inclusion is anything like Isabelle's; In other words, their announcement and reveal coincides with the announcement of their game arriving to the Switch at a later date or that same day. Banjo is still a potential fit, due to the potential 64 Mini.

Lastly, the end of his tweet. "I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan." The wording of this suggests that Nintendo didn't give Sakurai specific 5 fighters, but rather, a large list of characters, 1st party and potentially 3rd party, which Sakurai would have to pick 5 characters from said large list based off of if he wants to do something with given characters or can. This means Nintendo decided far more than 5 characters for smash, gave Sakurai a list and told him "Choose 5 of these you think you can make something good with," and essentially to throw the other choices away. This means Sakurai still has some level of control as to who gets to be in Smash, only it has to be off of the list of characters Nintendo gave him.

It's not the end of the world. In fact, this kind of excites me.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Errr Jade could actually make for a very interesting character. She's all about allure and using spears and fisticuffs. The aesthetic of a character should not dictate their uniqueness.

Are you trying to imply 'anime swordsman' is a ****ing terrible argument? *gasp*

 

[Dee Dude]

Let’s say Geno does get in as DLC, who do you think would be the new “big three” in the community (like Ridley, K Rool, and Geno).

Personally I’d like to see Waluigi, Isaac, and Banjo fill that role. Waluigi would be the lovable popular purple villain of the three, Banjo would be the forgotten Rare character, and Isaac would be the underdog of the group. It’s different, yet somehow still the same.

New Ridley? (The extremely memed and heavily debated character ) Waluigi for sure.

New K.Rool? (A massively requested character that somehow misses the bus completely ) Isaac.

But I think if there’s gonna be a new holy trinity, it’s gonna be Isaac, Waluigi, & Banjo. (Maybe add Shadow for a holy quadnity)

 

[KMDP]

Errr Jade could actually make for a very interesting character. She's all about allure and using spears and fisticuffs. The aesthetic of a character should not dictate their uniqueness.

Cutie Gwen is obviously joking.

That aside, she's comparing Jade to this character.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Cutie Gwen is obviously joking.

That aside, she's comparing Jade to this character.

Who herself is literally a palette swap of Lyn in game

 

[osby]

The fact that Sakurai is preemptively acting defensive should be enough to tell you something about the DLC tbh

I think he's acting defensive because people are spamming him with their wants, not because he's not confident in DLC line-up.

EDIT: read=it says more about the fanbase than DLC

 

[nintenplayer]

Lastly, the end of his tweet. "I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan." The wording of this suggests that Nintendo didn't give Sakurai specific 5 fighters, but rather, a large list of characters, 1st party and potentially 3rd party, which Sakurai would have to pick 5 characters from said large list based off of if he wants to do something with given characters or can. (...) This means Sakurai still has some level of control as to who gets to be in Smash, only it has to be off of the list of characters Nintendo gave him.

Okay that's kind of a relief, but my expectations are still pretty low. It's still primarily Nintendo's decision, which isn't ideal IMO.

Sorry if I sound pessimistic but that's just how I feel. And I learned my lesson after the Grinch leak that irresponsible hype is never good. Might as well have no expectations at all, in that way I can be a lot more surprised and satisfied with the reveals.

 

[ChronoKatie]

Cutie Gwen is obviously joking.

That aside, she's comparing Jade to this character.

Oh, my apologies. Just wanted to put out a good case for Jade.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Seeing a lot of the Smash fanbase start shouting doom and gloom about how the DLC is all gonna be promotional characters without any sort of solid base in reality is kinda depressing. The Grinch leak's fall made a lot of Smash fans a hell of a lot more pessimistic, it seems.

People got way too hopeful. King K. Rool and Ridley's reveals gave them the false impression that EVERY new character added to the roster would be an old fan favorite boomer pick. But now we know that's not the case. The Grinch leak gave us a lot more to discuss and talk about, but it's obvious it did more harm than good in the long term.

 

[KMDP]

Who herself is literally a palette swap of Lyn in game

You think so?

While I see similarities, I think it's just a case of same face.

 

[Deleted member]

Unfortunately I think they will never put a secondary character instead of the main protagonist

See, all you have to do is put just a little bit of effort, and you won't look like Great Value-brand Fire Emblem!

 

[PsySmasher]

She is part of Nintendo series though. If we take out every secondary Nintendo character on the roster, we'd be back to the Smash 64 roster.

Alright, since we're all losing our minds now, I'm going to put my thoughts down on this and try to clear some things up.

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate’s DLC line-up is now complete. This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo. I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan.

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) November 6, 2018

First off, please note that Sakurai is saying "Super Smash Bros. Ultimate’s DLC line-up is now complete." Not that it has been complete, or they completed months ago. But that it is now complete. As in, they've only now finally finished choosing the DLC characters and thinking of how they'll work. Not that they've finished creating them, as it hasn't been nearly long enough since the game has gone gold to finish them.
This means there's a chance that, in fact, recent characters (anyone from games after early 2016) could be part of the DLC lineup. Of course, this goes against what he said the final smash direct, but yet again, what he said in that direct goes against what Bill had said about how they were handling Smash DLC.

Second off, please note what he said. "This time the selection was made entirely by Nintendo." This doesn't mean no 3rd Party characters.
It means that, we may get a lot of 1st Party characters, but some 3rd Parties as well. Nintendo chose them, but they could've chosen them for promotional reasons, trying to gather attention for franchises on the switch, or games coming to the switch soon that we've yet to hear of, 3rd and 1st party. This doesn't eliminate 3rd parties entirely, but it limits our options to "Which 3rd parties would Nintendo want in Smash? How would it help them for this 3rd party to get in smash besides making money off of DLC?" Geno's chances are hurt, because we don't know how badly Nintendo themselves want him. DQ's chances increase immensely because of this, as are Chocobo's or any FF character's. Sora's chances are, admittedly, very hurt as well. However, characters like Sora and 2B (Basically 3rd party franchises who've yet to have a game on the switch, but can get one in the nier near future) potentially have a chance if their inclusion is anything like Isabelle's; In other words, their announcement and reveal coincides with the announcement of their game arriving to the Switch at a later date or that same day. Banjo is still a potential fit, due to the potential 64 Mini.

Lastly, the end of his tweet. "I decide if we can create a fighter based on their selection, then come up with the plan." The wording of this suggests that Nintendo didn't give Sakurai specific 5 fighters, but rather, a large list of characters, 1st party and potentially 3rd party, which Sakurai would have to pick 5 characters from said large list based off of if he wants to do something with given characters or can. This means Nintendo decided far more than 5 characters for smash, gave Sakurai a list and told him "Choose 5 of these you think you can make something good with," and essentially to throw the other choices away. This means Sakurai still has some level of control as to who gets to be in Smash, only it has to be off of the list of characters Nintendo gave him.

It's not the end of the world. In fact, this kind of excites me.

It's better than Nintendo having complete control, but they did limit the characters Sakurai can choose from. For all we know, some very popular characters could've not made Nintendo's list, pretty much obliterating their chances.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

You think so?

While I see similarities, I think it's just a case of same face.

Look at the sprites then

People got way too hopeful. King K. Rool and Ridley's reveals gave them the false impression that EVERY new character added to the roster would be an old fan favorite boomer pick. But now we know that's not the case. The Grinch leak gave us a lot more to discuss and talk about, but it's obvious it did more harm than good in the long term.

The problem was expecting any boomer picks, boomers are people born in 1979 at the very latest iirc, why would they care about video games, they're too busy yelling how millenials are killing the mayonnaise industry with their feminism

 

[A.G.L.]

Which is none existent XD (interest in Geno by Nintendo & Square). I don't believe this is the first time Nintendo took over however. I believe most of FE chars were their call too. Btw, when did you realize Square's behavior? You seem to be bitten by it. I'm guessing FF related.

Well, I wish all your wishes come true. I don't mind any, I was just feeling for Geno fans and honestly I still think not evry choice should be hard cold cash based. I don't appreciate building a stack over passion then dropping it all for pure cash sake, that to me is so wrong.

It wasn't just Vergeben, Hitagi too. So it's pretty much on spot. Even if there was a new Banjo game, reality says 90Mil. players = more $$.
Just to point, you see, we're talking reality now. Passion, dream, imagination all went out of the door for that cold cash. New players like Minecraft fans think it's ok because they're the reality call, they'll soon realize that Fortnite does better.. and so on and so on the better in cash get to be called the real deservant. That's just not gaming, not the fantasy world people go for to escape that specific reality. It's just wrong.

I think even if we stick together we're still microscopic XD At least I'm used to this by now.

Parts of Europe as well. Though, I don't think you'll find any more respectful people than in Japan. They're just so SO polite.

I agree not all choices should be made with highest investment in mind, but thats the world we live in. That being said sometimes financial gain and fan nostalgia align. Perfect example of this is Disney buying Fox, finally the Xmen and Fantastic Four characters are coming home. Or when people lost their minds when Spiderman appeared in the trailer for Civil War. These companies allowed these things to happen for financial interest yes, but we fans got something out of it as well. So not every time that companies choose financial interest as a priority means that we don't get something in return. Yes we may get Sora over Geno. And yes we may get Minecraft, but that means all those fans of those franchises got their wishes to come true. And who knows we who were not fans of those characters may grow to like them. I mean look how much of the internet loves Piranha plant already. It may seem that these companies choosing to pursue financial gain is all doom and gloom. However it does not mean we fans don't have something to gain, and who knows their picks might end up becoming our new favorites.

I started noticing when I became super interested in FF15. Im a huge FF15 fan despite all the problem it has, the story and the villain are incredible. That game believe it or not got me super interested in the FF series. I began to try to see what Square would do with all the plot holes. Then I began to predict if they were going to release a second season pass, because Ardyn's story is so incredible that I wanted to know more. I then began to try to predict what world's would be in KH3 and if Square would have FF15 characters in it. Then I began to think of Sora's chances in Smash. that led to a rabbit hole of me exploring Square's financial pattern's, character patterns' cross promotion patterns, character history, character development, company history. and so on. They are very interesting company and they make some of the most incredible music. If there is one thing you cannot take away from Square, they know how to choose incredible composers. Also them choosing Darin De Paul as the voice of Ardyn was genius. Seriously though listen to the music in FF15, especially Apocalypsis Aquarius. I really, really dream of this song making it in Smash, even though its already in Tekken lol.

Haha don't give up friend, you never know we could get our wish. If not this Smash there is always the next one.

Yes theres something about Japan that is just awe inspiring. Though I would also love to travel to Spain, as many parts of my family came from there.

 

[Dee Dude]

People got way too hopeful. King K. Rool and Ridley's reveals gave them the false impression that EVERY new character added to the roster would be an old fan favorite boomer pick. But now we know that's not the case. The Grinch leak gave us a lot more to discuss and talk about, but it's obvious it did more harm than good in the long term.

I mean added with the fact that Sakurai directly stated that Chrom and Dark Samus were highly requested characters, could you really blame us for assuming so?

I mean if they were gonna finally add two of the most massively requested characters of all time, why not throw a few more fan-picks a bone?

And no, not all of them would be long time requests (hence Isabelle and Incineroar) but we figured most would be.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Something I'm thinking... a long post with speculation, as usual.

Sakurai said he didn't want to modify Wii Fit Trainer's face but someone requested him to do it (was it the first Smash Direct?).
He said that he didn't want to make Villager's neck longer but he did it because someone requested him to do it.

We actually received a request from the Animal Crossing team to lengthen Villager’s neck a bit. Honestly, I didn’t want to do this since each game has a design that fits best, but fielding these types of requests and making them work is what Ultimate is all about.

Now he says that the DLC are chosen by Nintendo and not by himself.

For some reason, when Sakurai is forced to do something against his will, he feels the need to tell it publicly, even if it's irrelevant such as the neck of a character.

I think that the tweet could mean that Nintendo wants him to add one (or more) character that Sakurai doesn't want to, and he's making that character against his will.

What character is important to Nintendo but Sakurai has always purposely ignored? Toad.
I think that there is a good chance that Toad is one of the DLC characters.

For what we know, maybe Piranha Plant was chosen by Nintendo as well: it doesn't fit Sakurai's selection criterias but it fits well with the rosters of Mario's party and sport games; you can play tennis as a chomp, for example; I can totally see it being an idea from Nitnendo and not from Sakurai.

I'm against Bandana Dee in Smash, I don't like him, but I think that this may also play in his favor:
I think that Bandana Dee has always been ignored for the same reason as Toad, because Sakurai don't want that type of characters in the roster (and also because it goes against Sakurai's vision of Waddle Dees).
Now that Nintendo is in charge of selecting the characters, they don't follow Sakurai's criteria anymore, and they could have chosen him as well.
Off course Sakurai can still say no, but he must find a credible reason for denying a character, and after making a Piranha Plant a playable character it's hard to find an excuse to exclude any character.
Though, with Piranha Plant, the surprise of having a regular enemy in the roster has gone and a Waddle Dee wouldn't have the same impact anymore, so I'm not sure.

Anyway, there are other characters with higher priorities IMO.
I think that Tetra has big chances, she's been used a lot in Nintendo's marketing, and she's still very recognizable. She along with Toad is the only character from that Japanese advertising of the 3DS skins that's not in the roster yet (aside of the idol XD) and I think she's very likely.

I'm pretty confident that Toad and Tetra have high chances of being DLCs, at least 80% each; I'm about 40% of chance for Bandana Dee or (more likely considering Piranha Plant got in before Petey Piranha) Waddle Dee in general (it was 20% and dropped to 0% when he was absent from the final roster, but now that it's up to Nintendo things have changed a lot).
The only problem with those characters is to find music and a new stage that's specific to them; Tetra already has a stage and some music in the game, Toad can bring stuff from Cpt Toad, but Waddle Dees aren't linked to a specific location or music either (aside of maybe King Dedede's castle, but that's Dedede stuff anyway).
Considering how much Miyamoto loves Star Fox, probably we must expect Peppy or Slippy as well...? Or someoe like Pigma, or even Andross (in some form)? As unique fighter?
Then, I'm not sure, but I hope Ganon will get his chance too... he doesn't have much support, he's not used in advertising, but he's an icon to Nintendo and I hope they push for him since it's one of my most wanted, but I have a bad feeling about his chances.

So my final verdict is, the most likely DLC characters are IMO:

Spoiler: full list

-Toad
-Tetra
-Star Fox character
-Waddle Dee (Bandana or not, probably not), or a character from a modern/upcoming Kirby game due to lack of representation, to promote Star Allies
-Dixie Kong
-Ganon
-Gen 8 Pokèmon (because we know that it's inevitable)
-And I would say that Zinith 's prediction/wish of Poochy is not impossible at all, considering how much Nintendo invests into making Yoshi's Island sequels and that Crafted World is coming out soon.
-if they push hard enough, they can even bring E Gadd (or King Boo, Sakurai probably wouldn't but Nintendo would) in to promote Luigi's Mansion 3.
-someone from new or unrepresented franchises, or secondary franchises that will get a sequel announced soon.
-and, I would add, due to the success of Breath of the Wild, one of the champions may get in as well.
-not to forget about Metroid Prime 4.

This if 3rd parties are not involved.
If they are:

-Rayman/Rabbids
-FF rep (because Vergeben and portings on Switch)
-Steve (because Vergeben)
and I don't know, I have absolutely no idea really, I think Nintendo wouldn't give priority to third parties at all.

My speculation ended with 15 characters, but only 5 are allowed.

An optimized chart with only the ones who IMO have the biggest chances:
-Toad
-Zelda newcomer: Tetra/a champion from BOTW (but both options already have a stage and musics in the game)
-Gen 8 Pokèmon (not announced yet)/other promotional charcter from different franchise (maybe unrepresented or new ip)/Eevee (I almost forgot)
-Character from a western appealing franchise: Starfox character/Metroid Prime 4 character (Sylux if he has a major role in the game)/Dixie Kong
-Third party: Final Fantasy character (if Vergeben is right about a Square Enix rep)/Rayman (if Ubisoft)

There are still a lot of options with multiple choices, I'm not sure about how Nintendo would approach the selection of newcomers.
After that tweet, speculating became a lot harder, but as the first DLC character will be announced, the situation will get a bit more clear.

 

[Royalty1702]

Since Geno is on the table at the moment, I just wanted to say:
Press F for papagenos.

 

[KMDP]

Look at the sprites then

They look even more different.
(Also apparently Marisa is 10-foot tall)

 

[N3ON]

truth be told, and i'm ashamed to say this, i had thought that kingdom heart's was a niche franchise, at least here, up until i saw everyone's reactions this year's E3.

People may be aware of him existing, but I'm not so sure if they actually know of him too much. Granted, anecdotal evidence is the weakest kind of evidence.
Saying he's anywhere near Cloud, Slime, or Ryu's level of being iconic is saying a bit much, though. He's certainly seems to be more popular in Japan than here, however.
He's certainly popular as well here, but not as well known or "iconic". Again, though, that may just be subjective.

If you were to say the others were bigger I wouldn't argue with you. But Sora's no slouch either, he's a pretty well known, popular character. Kingdom Hearts is also one of the only JRPG series treated as a triple-A thing in the west. If the arguments here have proved nothing else, it is ultimately subjective, but I don't think calling him iconic is a stretch.

It doesn't help that all the other third-parties (bar Bayo) have over a decade on KH, but its inclusion would certainly not break the trend of major third-parties (bar Bayo again).

 

[MyDude213]

People got way too hopeful. King K. Rool and Ridley's reveals gave them the false impression that EVERY new character added to the roster would be an old fan favorite boomer pick. But now we know that's not the case. The Grinch leak gave us a lot more to discuss and talk about, but it's obvious it did more harm than good in the long term.

I can agree with everyone on that image except Master Chief. That's not gonna happen and I'm actually surprised people are even trying to seriously entertain the idea of it happening. Would I have a problem with him in the game no of course not he's a huge name in gaming for that fact he makes sense to have a slot in the game. But it still won't happen because he's not a third party character he is a first party IP had Smash as a game been a third party IP instead of a first party Nintendo IP I could see it happening. Since they would have no real alliance to Nintendo in particular as it would be a multiplat game. But it's not and most likely never will be as far as we know so Master Chief is a character that's is off the tables for inclusion same with any other first party.

 

[Deleted member]

Since Geno is on the table at the moment, I just wanted to say:
Press F for papagenos.

Are we allowed to steal papa bless from the h3 crowd and use that instead?
I don't wanna get sued for fanbase appropriation.

truth be told, and i'm ashamed to say this, i had thought that kingdom heart's was a niche franchise, at least here, up until i saw everyone's reactions this year's E3.

tbf with the frequency that people **** on the concept of "Disney meets Final Fantasy" you could be forgiven for that.
Side note: it was actually ****ing impossible to play Kingdom Hearts at E3 this year. I got to the convention center as early as I could all 3 days and the line was always at max capacity. At least I got to play quite a bit of Ultimate

 

[Deleted member]

Something I'm thinking... a long post with speculation, as usual.

Sakurai said he didn't want to modify Wii Fit Trainer's face but someone requested him to do it (was it the first Smash Direct?).
He said that he didn't want to make Villager's neck longer but he did it because someone requested him to do it.

Now he says that the DLC are chosen by Nintendo and not by himself.

For some reason, when Sakurai is forced to do something against his will, he feels the need to tell it publicly, even if it's irrelevant such as the neck of a character.

I think that the tweet could mean that Nintendo wants him to add one (or more) character that Sakurai doesn't want to, and he's making that character against his will.

What character is important to Nintendo but Sakurai has always purposely ignored? Toad.
I think that there is a good chance that Toad is one of the DLC characters.

For what we know, maybe Piranha Plant was chosen by Nintendo as well: it doesn't fit Sakurai's selection criterias but it fits well with the rosters of Mario's party and sport games; you can play tennis as a chomp, for example; I can totally see it being an idea from Nitnendo and not from Sakurai.

I'm against Bandana Dee in Smash, I don't like him, but I think that this may also play in his favor:
I think that Bandana Dee has always been ignored for the same reason as Toad, because Sakurai don't want that type of characters in the roster (and also because it goes against Sakurai's vision of Waddle Dees).
Now that Nintendo is in charge of selecting the characters, they don't follow Sakurai's criteria anymore, and they could have chosen him as well.
Off course Sakurai can still say no, but he must find a credible reason for denying a character, and after making a Piranha Plant a playable character it's hard to find an excuse to exclude any character.
Though, with Piranha Plant, the surprise of having a regular enemy in the roster has gone and a Waddle Dee wouldn't have the same impact anymore, so I'm not sure.

Anyway, there are other characters with higher priorities IMO.
I think that Tetra has big chances, she's been used a lot in Nintendo's marketing, and she's still very recognizable. She along with Toad is the only character from that Japanese advertising of the 3DS skins that's not in the roster yet (aside of the idol XD) and I think she's very likely.

I'm pretty confident that Toad and Tetra have high chances of being DLCs, at least 80% each; I'm about 40% of chance for Bandana Dee or (more likely considering Piranha Plant got in before Petey Piranha) Waddle Dee in general (it was 20% and dropped to 0% when he was absent from the final roster, but now that it's up to Nintendo things have changed a lot).
The only problem with those characters is to find music and a new stage that's specific to them; Tetra already has a stage and some music in the game, Toad can bring stuff from Cpt Toad, but Waddle Dees aren't linked to a specific location or music either (aside of maybe King Dedede's castle, but that's Dedede stuff anyway).
Considering how much Miyamoto loves Star Fox, probably we must expect Peppy or Slippy as well...? Or someoe like Pigma, or even Andross (in some form)? As unique fighter?
Then, I'm not sure, but I hope Ganon will get his chance too... he doesn't have much support, he's not used in advertising, but he's an icon to Nintendo and I hope they push for him since it's one of my most wanted, but I have a bad feeling about his chances.

So my final verdict is, the most likely DLC characters are IMO:

Spoiler: full list

-Toad
-Tetra
-Star Fox character
-Waddle Dee (Bandana or not, probably not), or a character from a modern/upcoming Kirby game due to lack of representation, to promote Star Allies
-Dixie Kong
-Ganon
-Gen 8 Pokèmon (because we know that it's inevitable)
-And I would say that Zinith 's prediction/wish of Poochy is not impossible at all, considering how much Nintendo invests into making Yoshi's Island sequels and that Crafted World is coming out soon.
-if they push hard enough, they can even bring E Gadd (or King Boo, Sakurai probably wouldn't but Nintendo would) in to promote Luigi's Mansion 3.
-someone from new or unrepresented franchises, or secondary franchises that will get a sequel announced soon.
-and, I would add, due to the success of Breath of the Wild, one of the champions may get in as well.
-not to forget about Metroid Prime 4.

This if 3rd parties are not involved.
If they are:

-Rayman/Rabbids
-FF rep (because Vergeben and portings on Switch)
-Steve (because Vergeben)
and I don't know, I have absolutely no idea really, I think Nintendo wouldn't give priority to third parties at all.

My speculation ended with 15 characters, but only 5 are allowed.

An optimized chart with only the ones who IMO have the biggest chances:
-Toad
-Zelda newcomer: Tetra/a champion from BOTW (but both options already have a stage and musics in the game)
-Gen 8 Pokèmon (not announced yet)/other promotional charcter from different franchise (maybe unrepresented or new ip)
-Character from a western appealing franchise: Starfox character/Metroid Prime 4 character (Sylux if he has a major role in the game)/Dixie Kong
-Third party: Final Fantasy character (if Vergeben is right about a Square Enix rep)/Rayman (if Ubisoft)

There are still a lot of options with multiple choices, I'm not sure about how Nintendo would approach the selection of newcomers.
After that tweet, speculating became a lot harder, but as the first DLC character will be announced, the situation will get a bit more clear.

Which FF character do you think would get in Ultimate alongside Cloud?