Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

Is Mystic still confident on Isaac and Geno because he is also saying that one of the characters on the mural is an assist trophy like Emily is. I don't believe these insiders much at all but I'm just curious about this

 

[Cosmic77]

If one of the banner characters is an AT, my money is on Shadow or Isaac. Mach Rider has never been an AT before, so even though he/she might seem like a better fit, there's nothing that indicates Sakurai even considered making Mach Rider an AT before. Plus, we have the Excitebikers from Brawl, and they feel like a more iconic fit for a biker AT anyway.

Mr. Saturn also has the benefit of being very close to Ness right? Cause like, he's tiny and like the banner, is like the Djinn and Isaac interacting "Even though I don't really see the Venus Djinn shape there"

Mr. Saturn is there just so the Pikmin have something to carry. They could've went with virtually any item, and they just so happened to pick one who technically qualifies as a character.

Doesn't mean anything.

 

[Deleted member]

It's literally the one thing we've been talking about the past day...

I wasn't here last night. Could someone explain?

 

[Fablemad]

Why? Despite not being as important as actual characters, why exactly would it be impossible for an insider to know about assist trophies?

These are things people close to the development team would know. They are not that close. Their ''sources'' themselves are probably people that heard things from people that heard thing from people that heard things from people that work on it. It gets diluted, so the only thing they would know about is the characters since that's the important thing. Can you imagine the sources going: ''Ahah by the way Mach Rider as an assist teehee'' Emily Rogers is a literal who, and last night all these insiders went full aggro

 

[Mehdow]

Unusual, but not the first time it has happened on a tuesday

Spoiler: Big image

View attachment 173625

Oh, thanks for the info.

But yeah kinda strange we're getting a stage in tuesday, being the last one in July......DIRECT ON THURSDAY AS EVERYONE ARE SAYING CONFIRMED

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Oh, thanks for the info.

But yeah kinda strange we're getting a stage in tuesday, being the last one in July......DIRECT ON FRIDAY AS EVERYONE ARE SAYING CONFIRMED

Aren't we supposed to be getting the Direct on Thursday?

 

[Fablemad]

So... who do we believe are the real characters in the Grinch leak?

Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Shadow, Ken and Geno

I know I don't mean to go in full circle or anything, but while the AT thing is odd, as well we only had about 3 people state a thing, they're not exactly saying characters are faked. Aren't they kind of just pointing to the fact that while the leaked banner itself is fake as far as the art goes, characters in that banner can be playable fighters. Was that not the consensus?

Yes...I know all the work that would have to go in it to fake it.

They're backpeddaling now, too, huh?

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Aren't we supposed to be getting the Direct on Thursday?

Our Thursday is Japan’s Friday

 

[Zinith]

I wasn't here last night. Could someone explain?

Essentially Greninja's tongue in the mural was used to attempt to disprove the Grinch leak, but it was thoroughly debunked so we're at square one, and at each other's throats even more...

 

[CosmicQuark]

Some guy was going "The simplist explanation is probably the real one so it's real because that's simpler than someone with a lot of time on their hands faking it, which is what I mean, which would be the opposite for ESRB and the Rayman leak

Konata is an anime character, she'd just be another blue haired swordswoman either way

Yes, that's how we generally make inference from evidence. Of course, the simplest explanation isn't always the correct answer, as it's a heuristic tool we all use. Insiders would be using that too, "I've been told characters are in the game that are not on the banner, so the simplest explanation is the banner's fake."

The assist trophy argument is far more conclusive--if insiders have good reason to believe a character on the banner is an assist trophy, that directly contradicts the banner. If you disagree that it being real is the simplest explanation, that's fine--it's subjective. But the problem isn't with Occam's Razor.

 

[bigblast181]

Aren't we supposed to be getting the Direct on Thursday?

No official confirmation. Rumors are that it's this week. Or the next week.

 

[Deleted member]

Essentially Greninja's tongue in the mural was used to attempt to disprove the Grinch leak, but it was thoroughly debunked so we're at square one, and at each other's throats even more...

Huh. Okay then!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

lmao the thread is glitching out again, saw the same 2 posts twice

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Isaac, Banjo, Mach Rider, Chorus Kids, Shadow, Ken and Geno

So... you're believing all of them?

 

[Ultinarok]

Regardless of the current situation I think it's significantly better than going "Muh Occam's Razor" cause that was just dumb lmao

You're right, we just go back to Box Theory, a theory built entirely on multiple assumptions, seeing as how its not Occam's Razor, and therefore not "dumb".

Occam's Razor isn't an argument. Its a logical tool, as CosmicQuark said. The simplest solution that involves the fewest assumptions/coincidences is often the most likely to be true. It is highly applicable to the banner leak. At this point its just Occam's Razor vs leaker trust/skepticism.

-Occam's Razor tells us its probably better to believe the leak is real.
-Our general distrust and skepticism of leaks and blurry images from sources whose personal character we do not know is conflicting with that.

Thus, this week long debate.

 

[Jchrono95]

I saw something about mach rider being the main one being implied to be fake a couple pages ago? Is this true? If so that's kinda lame cause they were the one in the leak I was most looking forward to. Closely followed by Banjo Kazooie

 

[Jetsurge]

May I see this then?

https://smashboards.com/threads/smash-ultimate-discussion.434391/page-6692#post-22623840

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Yes, that's how we generally make inference from evidence. Of course, the simplest explanation isn't always the correct answer, as it's a heuristic tool we all use. Insiders would be using that too, "I've been told characters are in the game that are not on the banner, so the simplest explanation is the banner's fake."

The assist trophy argument is far more conclusive--if insiders have good reason to believe a character on the banner is an assist trophy, that directly contradicts the banner. If you disagree that it being real is the simplest explanation, that's fine--it's subjective. But the problem isn't with Occam's Razor.

I'm not saying Occam's Razor is the problem but people who can't debate based on prior debates using it. Perhaps my wording was off or I should have been more clear, sorry

 

[Heracr055]

What happened to the new discussion thread?

 

[Flyboy]

Woke up to the sound of a possible new direct, which means new characters, and also the possible return of our dream page of 6969! Today is going to be a good day!

 

[Pakky]

Smash head cannon time

is actually a glutton in private and eats 3 dozen donuts a week.

is great- grandad times 10

 

[Wambo]

I saw something about mach rider being the main one being implied to be fake a couple pages ago? Is this true? If so that's kinda lame cause they were the one in the leak I was most looking forward to. Closely followed by Banjo Kazooie

Mach Rider's potential moveset sounds really ****ing gnarly to me, so I'm hoping they're legit. Imagine whipping out a mother****ing motorcycle like Wario and using ranged attacks. Or even both, if the motorcycle has guns mounted on it like in Melee.

Also, imagine playing with Mach Rider on Big Blue. Just seems fitting since, y'know, that's the stage that had the MR song in Melee. <3

 

[VGPhaze]

These are things people close to the development team would know. They are not that close. Their ''sources'' themselves are probably people that heard things from people that heard thing from people that heard things from people that work on it. It gets diluted, so the only thing they would know about is the characters since that's the important thing. Can you imagine the sources going: ''Ahah by the way Mach Rider as an assist teehee'' Emily Rogers is a literal who, and last night all these insiders went full aggro

I could see a sources saying that after getting wind of a certain leak...

 

[SebasSancy]

Could be this the first time we get a playable character that is also an Assist Trophy?

 

[Fablemad]

So... you're believing all of them?

I, personally, yes. There is, again, no way this leak could be fake. The only evidence from the other side that we have is the supposedly credible sources who are, may I remind everyone, not big figures, just random nobodies. None of them even work in the industry and the people that do (see; Gamexplain) are being shady as fudge.

 

[CosmicQuark]

So... who do we believe are the real characters in the Grinch leak?

If the banner is mostly right, but some characters are assists (not necessarily the case, as some characters might not be in the game at all if the banner is fake), I have a couple ideas. Mach Rider could be an assist, as the only thing pointing to Mach Rider outside of the banner is the toy Sakurai shared (no reason to assume it's for a playable character). Would be disappointing, because it's probably the best retro pick. Chorus Kids as well, as I'm not sure if the rumor was a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash 4--could have been a dropped assist (correct me if I'm wrong). Both Shadow and Isaac used to be assists--it would be unfortunate for those fans if they were assists, but weren't already revealed. Ashley fans had to wait 2 months for a deconfirmation, this has been 4.

So, just in terms of speculating based on possible assist trophies, I think the most likely characters from the banner would be Ken, Banjo, and Geno. Hope most, if not all, of the other characters are in as well, though. It's such a perfect roster, in hindsight.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I saw something about mach rider being the main one being implied to be fake a couple pages ago? Is this true? If so that's kinda lame cause they were the one in the leak I was most looking forward to. Closely followed by Banjo Kazooie

Well, (S)he wouldn't really be true to the original game if they were not on the bike that much...
An assist trophy however...

 

[Flyboy]

Mach Rider's potential moveset sounds really ****ing gnarly to me, so I'm hoping they're legit. Imagine whipping out a mother****ing motorcycle like Wario and using ranged attacks. Or even both, if the motorcycle has guns mounted on it like in Melee.

Also, imagine playing with Mach Rider on Big Blue. Just seems fitting since, y'know, that's the stage that had the MR song in Melee. <3

The fact that that was the original MR stage in Melee and that we still haven't seen Mute City (Melee) has me mad suspicious...

 

[Luigifan18]

What happened to the new discussion thread?

Merged into this one.

 

[xXShadeXx]

What happened to the new discussion thread?

It was put together with the old one with the power of Flex Tape.

 

[Fablemad]

I could see a sources saying that after getting wind of a certain leak...

5 DAYS LATER: B-B-B-B-B-B-B-B-BUT ISAAC IS AN AT I SWEAR

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I, personally, yes. There is, again, no way this leak could be fake.

But there possibly is a way...
You never know with the internet

 

[VGPhaze]

Could be this the first time we get a playable character that is also an Assist Trophy?

Waluigi time?

 

[Wambo]

Really hope the AT thing turns out to be bull****. Mach Rider sounds too fun, and they don't always have to be on a motorcycle.

 

[Fablemad]

But there possibly is a way...
You never know with the internet

Listen, I understand your point and I'll admit there is a possibility. I hate to share my own pasta but it was floating around on 4chan yesterday so take all that into account when you're making your opinion on the leak:

 

[Deleted member]

So...if one of the mural characters could hypothetically be an AT, why is Banjo not an option as one? We've already had 3 other 3rd party characters be AT (Bomberman, Zero from Megaman X, and Shovel Knight). I've seen every suggestion possible (except for Issac & Geno since insiders are sure they're in), but nobody's suggesting Banjo could be one.

 

[Phyr]

In before this is more damage control from nintendo.

Because it just makes no ****ing sense.

First, the AT argument:

- Mystic only used the AT argument AFTER he went private because supposed nintenjas got him. Also, why would it continue answering via PM questions, knowing what had already happened to him?
- People that were in train IS FAKE, NO INCINEROAR, have now changed to ITS FAKE, ONE IS AN AT, BUT CANT SAY WHICH >
- And mind you if they know one is an AT it would be muuuch easier to state it because IS NOT A CHARACTER which are the big boys. But they keep being vague for ?????? Reasons?
- Why they ****ing have info on at characters of all things? And they do NOW too? Nobody leaked shovel knight or bomberman at and these were huge.

But considering that one of those is an AT:
- Banner have never had any non playable characters but mr saturn.
- If this were to be a first, it would be a BIG misservice to all other important first/third/indie characters.
- For example: Bomberman should be in the banner as a legendary third party if thats the case.
- That is why none of the suspected characters make any sense as an At.
- Banjo seems the most likely but quick reminder that the inage leak that ruffled nintendo feathers was the banjo render that couldnt be post on church stuff. The guy gave us the hint of the ruffled feathers and nobody debunked it. EVEN SO, Banjo in the banner while bomberman for example is not would be a massive discredit for third parties.
- Geno is mostly confirmed.
- Mach rider and Isaac are two obscure characters to be worth of the banner adition. There are worthier first party characters already in AT form not getting in.
- Chorus kid has the same case than the above...
- For something like this to happen it would have to be an actual rep like ARMS or a meme like waluigi. Neither of those is happening.
- Finally, shadow AT and on banner doesnt make sense when knuckles is not in the banner.

Still this is only logic but... yeah, it makes 0 sense and even puts nintendo in a bad place against franchises/third parties if they were to do that.

Finally quick reminder that ATs are now much more complete on terms of a character development, some being fully fledged fighters with dodges, shields and stuff. Wouldnt be hard to pick one and make him a full fighter.

So I wouldnt trust leakers, neither in the direct (if we get one direct it will be for presenting the japanese tourney, and announcing the direct in the 8, but that would be huge guessing) neither on the info when its clear that nintenjas are on it.

- Leakers are not to be ttusted right now. Nintendo is in HEAVY damage control.
- Leakers could still be being given false information willingly/unwillingly.
- last minute secret changes could be made to ATs.

Wait untik the direct is out to get your final conclussions guys, and stop giving the leakers internet fame. This whole situation is going toxic because of them trying to mine the trust on the leak. They could just stay silent and there wouldnt be any hate between teams, but they sre trying to mine the leak and right now are the only thing on leak being fake, and they are doing this for a reason (they are businesses, remind you).

Be calm, and wait one/two weeks for the smash anime zero grand leak grand finale

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Listen, I understand your point and I'll admit there is a possibility. I hate to share my own pasta but it was floating around on 4chan yesterday so take all that into account when you're making your opinion on the leak:
View attachment 173627

But still, the leak is missing Incineroar...
They's no way the banner is incomplete so what happened?...

 

[Pakky]

Mach Rider's potential moveset sounds really ****ing gnarly to me, so I'm hoping they're legit. Imagine whipping out a mother****ing motorcycle like Wario and using ranged attacks. Or even both, if the motorcycle has guns mounted on it like in Melee.

Also, imagine playing with Mach Rider on Big Blue. Just seems fitting since, y'know, that's the stage that had the MR song in Melee. <3

Imagine her drop kicking

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Really hope the AT thing turns out to be bull****. Mach Rider sounds too fun, and they don't always have to be on a motorcycle.

No way to prove that it’s just a claim without evidence same with with all insiders even creditable sources are wrong


And I know the leak is still alive

And with greninja tongue thing see this is what I’m talking about no matter what we find we are gonna hit amwall that neither disproves or confirms the leak we need a reveal to ends this