Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Chrollo.]

watch me break a rule with my first post in years here.

I do not comprehend how anyone can look at this background comparison and still seriously discuss the grinch leak:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/ru...er-updates-in-op.76702/page-145#post-14199041

That aside the character list feels like a GameFAQs Melee fanfiction list where everyone’s elusive fav got in. Its only missing Ashley and a bunch of others that actually did get added this time / last (like mac and krool and castlevania)

As someone who loves Geno and hates Banjo and Isaac I would put all three of them on the same level of undeservedness to make a smash roster.

I’m sticking with not even the insiders on this one, but what I feel is the obvious gut feeling which is that there’s maybe another one or two characters and a handful of echoes to announce.

(which covers boring pokemon like incineroar instead of good ones like raichu or decidueye. and all your ken shadow etc echoes)

See, you can say whatever you want about why you doubt the leak and I don’t care because I’m not sold on it either, but for the life of me I don’t understand reasonings like this. In a game CENTERED around fanservice, how are any of these unlikely? If you leaked the roster of newcomers we had now as the final ones you’d be able to say the same exact ****, except that’s what we actually got.

 

[amazonevan19]

I read a lot of the thread with the newest "insider" claim and I think there's two posts very worthy of sharing here.

Spoiler: Lunar15

"I think people have the wrong impression of how "insider" info works. They think it's some kind of clandestine phone conversation, like deepthroat. As someone who works in advertising and has had my fair share of gaming NDAs surrounding creative materials, it's more that people tend to talk around stuff, and if you're a journalist talking to other journalists, there's usually stuff everyone collectively hears some version of. You can't prove it and there's no direct source, but things get said around the industry and you pick up on it.

"For example, Nintendo actually sent out requests for proposals to publishers for Labo long before they announced it. The details were vague, but you could surmise that there was some kind of interactive, creative thing being worked on. Ad teams at gaming websites were no doubt talking about this with journalists present, but everything was vague and hard to confirm at the time. "

Spoiler: Finale Firework

"Insiders do what we do: speculate and estimate based on available information. Sometimes they have more insight than we do, but it's rare they know things for sure or have first-hand information. When they speculate, they have to be careful of the fact they might be wrong too, plus they have to respect and protect their sources.

"Usually certainty comes down to trust. People trust somebody who told them something. If you have a friend who works at Nintendo who tells you things all the time that are always true, you will believe them when they say "Incineroar is definitely in Super Smash Bros," But you don't know first-hand. You trust your source because you've built up a relationship with them that gives you confidence in their testimony. But you can't confirm it outright because you don't know.

"So you can choose to believe the person you know, who has never lied to you, or you can believe something unproven on the internet. However compelling the banner leak is, they must reconcile what they're now seeing with what they've been told, and that means they must adopt their speculation accordingly. Some choose to simply not believe the banner leak because this is the most natural conclusion to come to if you believe your information is good. You have reasons to trust your sources and those reasons are stronger than whatever reason you have to believe the banner rumor.

"Perhaps the original design document roster list for Smash Ultimate is common knowledge among various industry members and we have a Chrom situation on our hands. Or maybe Incineroar is meant to be revealed soon and various people are familiar enough with the marketing to be 100% assured the character is coming. But the certainty over Incineroar comes from somewhere and it's widespread enough that journalists and friends of the industry are extremely confident the character is coming.

"So if this banner leak is real, it is very difficult to reconcile that fact with information you believe beyond doubt. If the banner leak is real, the explanation for this inconsistency is unknowable, which means these industry insiders are back to speculating just like we are. If there is some explanation for Incineroar's absence, they don't know and can only guess. Many will simply conclude the leak must be a very convincing fake and this is a natural, educated conclusion to come to based on the information you have.

"But I think that every layman can see plainly from this entire ordeal that, if nothing else, Incineroar is supposed to be in the roster. Whether he is or isn't is anyone's guess."

The sheer volume and the ferocity of insider denials has me in serious doubt but the actual substantive arguments about the leak makes me believe. It's only making this wait harder...

 

[Guybrush20X6]

It's gonna be a long 12 days waiting for that supposed direct.
Even more thanks to the clocks going back an hour.

 

[JellieBomb]

You're doubting.... things that actually have happened? Because insider information do exist, denying that is kinda delusional.

Of course insider information exists, but I don't think Nintendo is just handing it out to random journalism sources. If so, it would be very much under the table by someone breaking their NDA, or the information being spread could be outright misleading. I believe Nintendo and Sakurai have been burned enough by game spoilers in the past that they're doing everything that they can to keep the reigns on this sensitive information.

 

[Idon]

Honestly, going back to anything before the physical special split in Pokemon is hard.

But anything after XY's power fantasy feels a bit too easy.

Aaaaagh, Pokemon please.

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[osby]

Gen is the worst gen imo, just beacuse it's so broken...

But it gave us so many interesting and creative Pokemon designs like a sentient ball, a sentient pile of slime, a three headed mole, a three headed ostrich, a three headed gas balloon and a three headed flying magnet.

 

[Dcas]

I'm gonna say this.

If these insiders were actually shown the whole roster, Nintendo is doing the dumbest crap when handling their game.

Mhm and people still defends this atrocious secretism.

Anyways, right now its almost certain that the leak is fake. Theres still a chance it might be real but theres enough proof to counter that argument, like a 70% fake or 30% might be real.

 

[Untouch]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

No, it's ****posting.

 

[Deleted member]

It's been repeatedly stated the Grinch stuff doesn't confirm anything here; the person easily could've been working on it and the Smash stuff was a side project.

Also, Ryce isn't "some guy from ResetERA" (which is the successor to neogaf and has most of it's insiders), he had an ongoing string of leaks that blew MVCI wide open.

How about you take a step back and just be less vitriolic about things? You latched onto a clickbait article about Verg that didn't even cite anything and was patently incorrect; if that's not a sign of taking things too seriously...

Both ResetERA and NeoGAF have always been super toxic echo chambers, please. Stop putting those cesspools on a pedestal as if they have any validity due to their reputations. Everything is fallable, the words of "insiders" mean **** all on their own. Do your own research, and use your head.

Also, your first claim would still imply the leak is real. Unless you wanna suggest a 50yo Frenchman made a fake smash leak to troll us all. Because that's who took the Snapchat, it came from Eric Brigard's phone.

 

[Chrollo.]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

As far as I know, nah

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Ice Ben hearing its the back of the head wasn't leaked

I know the front end wasnt

 

[Mutsukki]

Of course insider information exists, but I don't think Nintendo is just handing it out to random journalism sources. If so, it would be very much under the table by someone breaking their NDA, or the information being spread could be outright misleading. I believe Nintendo and Sakurai have been burned enough by game spoilers in the past that they're doing everything that they can to keep the reigns on this sensitive information.

I don't know why you're assuming Nintendo is handing out information. 99% of insiders don't get official info you know, it's people who work there who leak information they saw or heard secretly to these people, so they don't get in hot water. That's why Square has a habit of feeding fake leaks to different people, so it's easier to weed out who did it

 

[Chrono.]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

J think they're yanking your chain.

 

[Pakky]

Anything after gen 5 sucks

Anything before gen 4 just doesn't work good.

 

[TheAnvil]

I highly doubt they would legally be aloud to send out fake promotional material featuring characters they have no legal right to use in any capacity. Banjo, Geno and Shadow are on the leak, (so's Ken but he's in anyway). So it's not a case of Nintendo faking art.

 

[Untouch]

Where are we even seeing the back of the Grinch anyways?

 

[Deleted member]

We already discussed this yesterday. That render existed long before October 24.

Gimme a source my man. Show me the render.

 

[KMDP]

Spawn Wave straight up said Incineroar’s inclusion is a open secret among insiders and journalist. Gamexplain also expect Incineroar and they’re close to a bunch of insiders.

Which is why it's plausible Incineroar is a smoke-screen.

Seriously? An "open secret"? Are you kidding me?
An open secret is, essentially, "something everyone knows, but doesn't discuss in public", for those unaware.

Who told them? Why? How?

Where's the evidence? Why is their source believable and trustworthy.

We have no reason to believe those guys, beyond having a history of being correct; but as history as shown us, literally any person in that chain of events can be wrong (or... as I keep saying, be deliberately misleading them).

 

[Pyra]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

...No, Jacob official, no it didn't.

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

J think they're yanking your chain.

Okie dokie, thanks for telling me

 

[Mutsukki]

Gimme a source my man. Show me the render.

Here, I just posted it a few post ago

https://static1.srcdn.com/wordpress...nch-2018-final-poster.jpg?q=50&fit=crop&w=738

Use your head man!!!!!!!!!!

 

[KingofKoopas]

It's gonna be a long 12 days waiting for that supposed direct.
Even more thanks to the clocks going back an hour.

Not really that extra hour will be one more extra hour of sleep

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

No, I think it's just a meme post...

 

[SushiRoll]

Hey, guys how about we stop arguing over a dumb leak that will be confirmed or debunked in like 2 weeks, and instead relax, have a cup of coffee, and discuss something more harmless?...

*Sip*
So... Are there any stages that you guys want to see that wouldn't be tied to a character?

Virtual Boy stage would be kinda neat. Can't think of a lot of a lot of Nintendo properties that don't already have character representation. Unless you go back to like B-list NES games. Lolo's castle?

 

[Bootortle]

An actual wolf is boring.

Amaterasu would be sick, though

 

[Deleted member]

While I do personally believe Incineroar is in, I would like to remind everyone of Smash 4 with the Chorus Kids and Chrom.

Nothing is final until Nintendo shows it themselves.

 

[andres22]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Sora deconfirme, i guess

 

[The DanMan051]

Both ResetERA and NeoGAF have always been super toxic echo chambers, please. Stop putting those cesspools on a pedestal as if they have any validity due to their reputations. Everything is fallable, the words of "insiders" mean **** all on their own. Do your own research, and use your head.

Also, your first claim would still imply the leak is real. Unless you wanna suggest a 50yo Frenchman made a fake smash leak to troll us all. Because that's who took the Snapchat, it came from Eric Brigard's phone.

As others have pointed out, the Grinch renders were already available to the public before that point; seems like you got baited.

So every legit thing insiders have leaked doesn't matter anymore because of their choice of platform? I think a lot of Neogaf and ResetEra is ****, but that's where leakers gravitate.

Do we even know what happened to these pics before they became public? Somebody could've edited his name and scribbled it out; heck, it doesn't even necessarily need to have come from snapchat, since the videos delete themselves after viewing. Seems all very convenient if you as me.

Also, chill out.

 

[AugustusB]

While I do personally believe Incineroar is in, I would like to remind everyone of Smash 4 with the Chorus Kids and Chrom.

Nothing is final until Nintendo shows it themselves.

A million times this. Myself included, be Cautiously Optimistic in everything.

 

[GenoToto]

May I posit a crazy, absolutely insane theory, about this supposed leak, based on what we know for a fact is coming up.

We have two Live events going on in Tokyo (Nov. 3rd-4th), and Kyoto (Nov. 23rd-24th), and it's quite possible that one of the items shown in the leak pertained to a wrap-around banner of some kind for a cylindrical display... Then, maybe this could be what we're seeing:

What if the banner contradicts with various 'Insiders' because the banner shown here is incomplete? And if incomplete, what if this means this banner is specifically for a display at the upcoming Nov. 3rd-4th Nintendo Live 2018 event? And what if that means that there is another banner that is being worked on that differs here, and is perhaps the actual banner the insiders know about, and will be put up for display at the next event on Nov. 23rd-24th? ERGO...

If the leak banner is inaccurate because it's missing key characters previously leaked from insiders, that means we haven't seen all of the fighters yet.

Maybe.

Or, maybe this is not at all what's going on, and it's only as simple as one side or the other being fed false information, be it by insider or by the leak. I think the former's more fun, even if absolutely impossible, though.

insert the conspiracy guy jpeg here

 

[osby]

Amaterasu would be sick, though

Nah, how many goddesses you guys need, we already have all the female characters in the roster.

 

[Pakky]

Amaterasu would be sick, though

She's more than 'Just a wolf'

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Oh wait, I found it btw:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=113&v=nytpYtLtHpE

Seems to be this apparently. The Grinch back render from the leak is used at the start, shown off for the very first time too on Oct 24th.

In other words, the Grinch content from the leak is 100% legit. Now it's a question of how legit the Smash content is. Would a 50yo Frenchman with a family, who doesn't speak English (I checked his facebook too), go out of this way to create a fake Smash leak at his office just to trick "us kids"? I doubt it. I think Eric was ******** about how much work he had to do, and dun goofed. He posted something he thought was insignificant, and it wound up being actually something SUPER important unbeknownst to him.

Also, he's DEFINITELY not the guy behind the Chadnondorf leak.

The leak is 100% real, best start accepting it. It's legit.

Some guys on 4chan have found the actual renders and not just the silhouette: they screenshotted them and posted them on 4chan. Those came from a different trailer.

I don't know the source and I didn't even search to be honest, though that trailer alone is not enough to prove or debunk anything, we need to do more research first.
And by the way, there's no back of the grinch, it's still a front picture, just it's the one without the dog.

 

[Cosmic77]

Did the grinch leak actually say this?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

"We don't get Sora, you don't get Mario."

 

[KMDP]

I highly doubt they would legally be aloud to send out fake promotional material featuring characters they have no legal right to use in any capacity. Banjo, Geno and Shadow are on the leak, (so's Ken but he's in anyway). So it's not a case of Nintendo faking art.

But do you know who they have permission to make fake promotional material of?

First party characters.

Like, say, Incineroar.

 

[Phyr]

THERE. IS. VALID. EVIDENCE. FOR. BOTH. SIDES.
DON'T. ACT. LIKE. IT. IS. CONFIRMED.

For all we know the dude threw in the Grinch render for ****s and giggles.

Honestly, you have to do very heavy mental gimnastics to think that this is fake. In a court all of this evidence would have been a complete sentence because it circumstacially is too heavy to ignore all of it.

The man was old and mostly wont care about smash that much. Was ******** about his job and didn't know that that armband had so heavy spoiler info. In fact these things are usually without value: for example we got leaked grinch renders and we DONT ****ING CARE, and for him I'm sure that the smash thing would be the same ****ing thing because these thing of promotional **** is normally done public, to help people make connection between promotion and product. It, is, real.

As I said, the only possibility is that Nintendo somehow backed up with the roster and did a change after sending these to print. These couldn't have been from a long time ago, simply because there was no events being held. Is almost sure that those are being prepared for an upcoming event in november or in store sales.

Face it, it's done. This IS real, the only thing left is confirmation from Nintendo.

Incineroar will be day one dlc i suppose, like mewtwo.

 

[Nekoo]

But do you know who they have permission to make fake promotional material of?

First party characters.

Like, say, Incineroar.

It seems that what the insiders saw go beyond promotional Material for being SURE that incineroar is in and that MOST of the roster is different from the Grinch leak.

 

[tsundoku]

This might sound controversial but I'd rather there not be any insiders at all if they're going to tell everyone they have the information and not give it up. Like, what's even the point then, besides sounding like you're proud of that fact? At least people like Vergeben actually give the information they receive out. It's baffling to me when I see insiders who say things like "this information is false, it contradicts what I know." Okay? So, if you're not going to tell us what you know, why should we care?

so they can disavow fake leaks?
they cant actually give out their information basically ever because it can get their sources big fired.

 

[Untouch]

I don't see the Grinch's back at all in the leak, I see one side with the Grinch and his dog, one with just the Grinch