I personally lean towards the 'real leak' Tansut is talking about is still kept within some kind of internal circle and hasn't truly leaked yet, but as of now there's nothing concrete saying whether or not it's this Geno image.
But I refuse to believe, in a world where-
A) Sakurai has wanted Geno since at least Brawl
B) Sakurai has metnioned as recently as 2016 that they still receive many, many votes to include Geno
C) Square-Enix is already working with Smash from the get-go, and has already allowed Geno in the game in some capacity
D) Geno got to be a 3rd-Party Mii Costume alongside characters like Monster Hunter, Heihachi, Chocobo, extra Mega Man characters, and extra Sonic characters
E) By all metrics we can draw from, Geno was the most popular SE character on the polls by a wide margin and the most reliable leakers point to a new SE character coming
-that Geno could possibly miss this game. Base, DLC, online subscription bonus, name your price, but I can't see it not happening somehow, some way. There is no such thing as a 'lock', but by god, the evidence is there.