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I definitely see where you're coming from, but I'd add one thing to that.I find it's really tough this time to gauge who would (I would say should, but I don't really think anybody from Wii U should be cut in the first place) be cut. Pair this with the fact that characters are cut by not being a priority over other characters.
I would love to pick Sakurai's brain when it comes to that. With the characters, are there multiple developers working on characters and then sending them to Sakurai to test? How long does the character development process take?
The one thing I really like about the Pokemon roster is that every single one is a different typing, and they each play differently. You can't play Greninja the same as Mewtwo, or Lucario like Charizard. Each one, in order to succeed, needs to be played to their strengths.
I do really think it's awesome that the types covered so far are Electric, Fairy, Fire, Flying, Psychic, Fighting, Steel, Water, Dark...If Decidueye were added, we'd be getting Grass and Ghost. We'd have the starting trinity of typing, as well as Dark, Psychic, and Ghost. Those last three have always seemed to be tied together for me for whatever reason.
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On a separate note, I'm going to throw this out there. I'm still not entirely convinced that what we're looking at is, in its entirety, a brand new game. Because of the time frame and sheer amount of content (and effort in the additional content), I am maintaining a wee bit of skepticism.
If you also consider the fact that there isn't a much larger pool of playable options since Wii U was in "speculation mode", there may be good reason to bring much of the content from Wii U over. What I mean by that, is that a large percentage of characters who were big last time are being talked about again, with not much in other contexts being different for them.
I mean really, the only characters who are more largely in the running of being added as opposed to the Wii U days are Inklings (in), Spring Man (probably in, imo), and Rex/Pyra (probably, imo). There the possibility of a character like Decidueye, who I think would be great.
New main games from larger Nintendo series that have come out since Wii U:
Super Mario Odyssey
The Legend of Zelda BOTW (already getting BOTW Link, I don't know that I really see anyone getting added. Not even Impa.)
Metroid: Samus Returns (Literally Samus)
Donkey Kong Country Returns: Tropical Freeze (getting released twice, will be out before new Smash, could get Dixie or Cranky)
Pokemon Sun & Moon (could add Decidueye here)
Kirby: Star Allies (Maybe Bandanna Dee if Sakurai sees him as more than your average ally or enemy)
Star Fox Zero (Basically 64 with a new coat of paint)
Fire Emblem Shadows of Valentia
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Series that haven't had additional games since Wii U
Animal Crossing
Punch-Out!!
Wii Fit
Pikmin (well, there IS that 3DS game)
Mother
F-Zero
Kid Icarus
Basically, I would wager that we would get characters from the series that have churned out releases in the last few years. I know, I know, people will say, "But old man Jones! Recency/relevancy doesn't matter!" But that's kinda how I'm seeing it right now. I know the development time isn't all that crazy based on the dev times of other Smash games, but something just feels...different.
By the way, by no means do I think it'll ONLY be a port. I think it'll be a port based on characters, but that character models may be updated, stages will be updated, as well as additional materials like trophies. It'll be based on Smash 4's engine, basically giving us a...Smash Bros. 4.5 (5.5?)
I'm sure there will be disagreement, but I don't think there would be a problem if it's effectively a heavily expanded port. It's a new Smash game altogether, just based on the engine of the previous game and retaining most if not all characters. Keep what we have, but just get fewer newcomers than normal.
I don't think Animal Crossing should be discounted so easily, mainly because Isabelle exploded in prominence since Smash 4's release, even without a post-New Leaf full release (and even then there's still Pocket Camp, Happy Home Designer, and...amiibo Festival).