There's 4 minimum but..So what you're saying is we are getting 6 characters in the Direct
Or am I literally an idiot
A trailer would take up a slot too, there could be 2 unique characters revealed.
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There's 4 minimum but..So what you're saying is we are getting 6 characters in the Direct
Or am I literally an idiot
God damn this was a thesis good work dudeMy speculation on the remaining newcomers for Ultimate:
One thing that has me puzzled was Sakurai's language in the last direct. I thought in the June direct it seemed clear that were would be less newcomers than Smash 4 and Brawl (17 and 18 respectively). Right now we are at 8 newcomers with about three months until the game's release (and Sakurai confirming he plans to reveal every character before the game's release).
Will we within the last three months get a number of newcomers unveiled equal to what we have already have? Is there precedence?
Melee kept four unique newcomers and six clones hidden until very close to the game's release (Zelda, Mewtwo, Marth, Mr. Game & Watch, and the six Melee clone newcomers). That is 10 versus 4 (what was known about for most of the pre-Melee speculation period). Brawl's original release was December 2007. In the last four months prior to December, they revealed Ike, Diddy Kong, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard, Lucas, King Dedede, Sonic, and likely Olimar (and Lucario, ROB, Toon Link, and Wolf were kept hidden until release). That is 13 versus five.
Things get different with Smash 4. After E3 2014 (of which there were only three months left until Smash 4's release), there already had been 11 newcomers unveiled. Of the remaining six newcomers not to be shown, two of them were echoes, and only three were kept hidden until the game's release (Bowser Jr., Duck Hunt, and Dark Pit). The pattern changed with Smash 4.
Many would think the Melee/Brawl model would happen over the Smash 4 once since so few newcomers have been confirmed so far, and we have only three months until the game's release. Aside from the Direct this week, there really exists only one more opportunity for character unveils within Nintendo Direct's which would be the last Direct before the game's launch (assuming there is only one more Smash Bros. direct and not two more). Assuming we are guaranteed one fully unique fighter for this upcoming direct, how much does that leave for the final direct if we are just purely looking at precedence?
For Smash 4, the highest amount of newcomer confirmations happened during E3. During E3 2013, three newcomers were confirmed. During E3 2014, five newcomers were confirmed. However, during E3 2018, only two were confirmed, one of which was an echo fighter. This divergence from precedence (along with the lack of any new content for Ultimate being confirmed in nearly two months) was what was leading to the pessimistic thinking that there were only five more additional newcomers after Ridley's confirmation.
However, with the 8/8 direct we were in for a massive surprise, we had nearly double the amount of newcomers unveiled than what had already been confirmed so far, and this lead to expectations return back to traditional Smash Bros. newcomer number expectations.
So I think the most optimistic scenario for fully unique fighters, is one unique newcomer for later this week, and three unique fighters for the final direct (one at the beginning, one in the middle, and one near the end), Echoes will likely be sandwiched somewhere in there. There are three locks as far as I am concerned for echoes (Isabelle, Ken, Shadow). If there are four more unique newcomers, I surmise there is one more echo fighter as well to keep the amount of echoes and unique newcomers even. This would give Ultimate 16 newcomers total.
However, 16? That does not sound like a number for Sakurai have to pair down the expectations of his fans. Even if you point to the lack of fully unique fighters, it is still on par with Melee (which also only had eight unique fighters). Sakurai also still considers echoes to be new character additions. Daisy, Chrom, and Dark Samus all made their fans very excited just as any other normal newcomer confirmation would for a fully unique fighter. Sakurai also imparted his lessened expectations again after the confirmations of Chrom and Dark Samus. Chrom and Dark Samus, even though they are echoes, both possess unique animations (or at least more than the Melee clones had) Even if you look at Richter, a lot of his animations (taunts and victory animations, and even one of his idle poses) gives close homage to poses he made in artwork and ingame for Rondo of Blood. Sakurai and his team are trying to stay true to these characters even if they are in the category of the most cloney of clones.
What then does the most pessimistic scenario look like if the most optimistic is another eight newcomers? Personally, I see the lowest range being five newcomers (that number includes both unique fighters and echoes). This number happening hinges upon whether there is a newcomer shown later this week or not. In the event there is not, the worst case scenario would be that there are only two fully unique fighters left in the game (a Pokemon newcomer and one out of Skull Kid or Geno). The remaining three newcomers would be Isabelle, Ken, and Shadow. A number of 13 newcomers is less than the last three Smash Bros. games and definitely a number Sakurai would want to warn his fans twice about in hoping to bring down fan expectations from traditional norms.
However, a range of only 5 to 8 does not seem that big does it? Well, it certainly does. Had Brawl only lost three more slots, Jigglypuff, Toon Link, and Wolf all would have been gone from Brawl. Had Brawl gained another three slots Mewtwo, Roy, and Dr. Mario would have made it in. That number (3) could mean the difference of your fan favorite making it or being relegated to a non-playable role as a consolation prize.
Of the most pessimistic scenario, I see Isabelle, Ken, and Shadow happening, so that is three out of five to eight slots, leaving only two to five slots left to speculate about. However, I expect one of those remaining two to five slots to be a Pokemon newcomer (especially judging by how much Sun/Moon content we have already seen in this game), and that will probably be Incineroar seeing as he is the one tipped off by Vergeben. That leaves only one to four slots left.
That is where things gets very interesting. There have been two credible leakers for Smash Bros. this go around: Vergeben and Loz. Vergeben is claiming Isabelle, Ken, and a Pokemon newcomer (he has said one of his sources have said Incineroar). He says one of his sources says there will be a second Square-Enix character. Most likely this means Geno, however, there is also a chance this could be someone to represent Dragon Quest, which is by far the biggest Japanese developed franchise without any sort of representation in Smash Bros.
In the other corner we have Loz, who is only claiming Skull Kid (though he made all sorts of other dodgy claims for other characters that he would say two completely different things about). Skull Kid is the character that Loz is putting all of his leaker chips on, and is the only one he has been adamant on since the 8/8 direct.
In the most pessimistic scenario, this means Geno versus Skull Kid for the final slot. Personally, if there is only ONE slot left, it would be most likely Geno in this scenario.
For the most optimistic scenario (four more newcomers left), things look far rosier. Both Skull Kid and Geno end up getting in, leaving two slots in contention. One a fully unique slot, and the other an echo fighter slot. Anything goes for both of them. Bandanna Dee, Chorus Kids, Banjo-Kazooie, Isaac, and Elma would all be strong contenders for such a slot. For the final echo fighter slot, again, there would be many strong contenders. Dixie Kong, Funky Kong, Impa, and Octoling (and possibly some sort of dark horse very few see coming like Richter was) are all strong contenders for this.
In less than three months, dreams will be either realized or dashed. However, even if there is only five (or even less) newcomers left, it is not the end. The DLC for Smash 4 was Nintendo's biggest moneymaker as far as DLC for their games was concerned. Even the Mii Fighter costumes sold very, very well. With this in mind, I expect there to be even more DLC for Ultimate than there was for Smash 4.
As long as the character does not have a major non-playable role in Ultimate, this leaves your character of choice to continue to have the possibility of being playable in Ultimate. The last round of Assist Trophies reveals will be very interesting for this reason alone. So far there have been 40 Assist Trophies confirmed, out of 50+ (which is the number given by Sakurai himself). This means that there are anywhere from 11 to 20 Assist Trophies left to be confirmed. I assume quite a few of those though will be veteran Assist Trophies though.
Ultimate has 103 stages. Nearly double the amount that Smash 4 Wii U had even with DLC. However, with such a tremendous number, only four of these stages are new to the series (New Donk City Hall, Dracula's Castle, Great Plateau Tower, and Moray Towers). That is less than half the stages that even Smash 64 had, yet its very interesting to see very few complaints about this, and all the eyes still on whether the amount of newcomers left will be "satisfactory".
With characters, Sakurai has brought back every character to date, a very impressive feat. Even ignoring the newcomers confirmed so far, seven veterans have been brought back for Ultimate that were not in Smash 4 or its DLC (Ice Climbers, Snake, Wolf, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Pichu, and Young Link). Only two of these seven fighters are like traditional clones (Pichu and Young Link), with the other five needing to have have their own unique animations be made for most of their movesets.
We are seeing the limit to just how many characters can enter a Smash Bros. game. Five to eight newcomers left is very, very impressive. Heck, even if there were less than five newcomers left, it would still be impressive.
The week ahead is going to prove to be absolutely essential for speculation. Even one newcomer confirmation for this week, can mean a ton going forward.
What about files before that? Have they been skipped, too? Sorry if that’s obvious. I just got back to the thread.There's 4 minimum but..
A trailer would take up a slot too, there could be 2 unique characters revealed.
...okay, that sounds better than I thought, actually. That's what I get for trying to ****post at 3am. No doubt I can come up with something much nastier if I wanted to, though. :pYOU'RE JUST ASKING ME TO MAKE A MOVESET AROUND 999-HIT COMBOS
actually, that should be the Pugilist's moveset
It's funny, because if I hadn't used Mega Man pretty much exclusively in the 3DS demo when it was first released, I might have felt the same way. I stuck with him though, and adapted to all of his unique attributes, and he ended up being my main in Smash 4! But yeah, I understand his playstyle is very different from pretty much everyone else on the roster.I've always wanted to play (i'm a huge fan of the serie) but i couldn't find ways to be consistently good and his list of 'good' moves was quite short in sm4sh (mainly f-air, up-tilt, dash attack, down and f-smash) which makes his gameplay a bit unintersting imo, also metal blade and leaf shield were all but useless. As a fan it was pretty disapointing to see that Megaman's projectiles sucked... that's supposed to be his 'thing' after all.
Tho i will absolutely give him another go in Ultimate mainly because he'll get some pretty exciting buuuuuuuuuffs!! :
Smash wiki:
Attributes
Ground attacks
Like all characters, Mega Man's jumpsquat animation now takes three frames to complete. Footstools can now be teched, which significantly worsens his combo game.
Special Moves
The ability to use any ground attack out of a run in Ultimate benefits up tilt, as combined with its sheer knockback, it can catch landings and punishopponents much more effectively for KOs. Forward smash has more range and activates faster. Up smash activates faster. Up smash has more endlag. Dash attack deals more damage.
Metal Blade deals more damage and knockback. Leaf Shield has a faster startup, its leaves spin more quickly around Mega Man and do not vanish upon hitting opponents, and the shield can be thrown much faster.
I'm curious if Simon will actually talk or only gruntSpeaking of, who’s ‘s voice actor, anyone know?
Keith Silverstein voices Simon here, reprising his role from Judgement.New English voices eh?
Kinda disappointed isn’t voiced by Alexis Tipton this time around, and is in Union VO Hell, but I kinda would like Michelle Ruff to voice
And NEEDS to have Crispin Freeman as his new VO. Please. My fangirl sensibilities demand it
Speaking of, who’s ‘s voice actor, anyone know?
If you think those are his good moves then you didn't play Mega Man properly. Ok, FSmash is good but FAir is terrible and completely overshadowed by BAir, UTilt is just for styling when you have that USmash, Dash Attack is okay and lol DSmash lolmainly f-air, up-tilt, dash attack, down and f-smash
Making an assumption..What about files before that? Have they been skipped, too? Sorry if that’s obvious. I just got back to the thread.
NGL I vastly prefer Electroshock.Which pit side special is better?
Okay, so it’s pretty evident that 6 things probably would have been added after the direct.Making an assumption..
Ike should have been 128.
Wolf should have been 127.
Dedede should have been 131.
Music post should have been 130.
Bowser should have been either 138 or 134.
Before Bowser, none were skipped.
I don't think I'm quite getting what you're saying.Looking at the blog post numbers based on the filenames...
New Donk City -> 124
Peach (Memory) -> 126 (skipping 1 character)
Ike (Memory) -> 129 (skipping 2 characters)
Final Destination -> 132 (skipping 1 character and 1 song)
A. Exeggutor -> 133
Toon Link (Memory) -> 139 (skipping 2 characters)
It's very clear something was skipped over.
*Crack knuckles let's do this*Okay guys what music do you want to see in Ultimate
I'd love to see a character neither Verge nor LoZ have said anything about, just to throw a wrench into the system. Shadow, like you mentioned, Elma, of BWD would be my top picks. LoZ is also really seemingly banking on Isaac, but we don't know if that's genuine or not.I feel like the next reveal is REALLY going to be a throwdown between Loz and Vergeben.
I feel incredibly confident in Vergeben's claims, but Loz is a lot shakier... However, a LOT of people are throwing their hat into the Skull Kid ring, so I could see it happening.
I think the main thing I'm more interested in is the Echoes.
Skull Kid + Incineroar + Geno make sense if you mash both leaker's claims together.
And then on the Echoes side you have:
Isabelle, Ken.
I actually wonder if this Direct is where Shadow would get confirmed, since NO ONE has hinted at him, yet his AT being absent is incredibly strange... and I can't imagine Sonic being passed over for a new character if other 3rd party franchises start getting them.
The “leaked” Zelda logo looks a bit...off. Why is the word “The” on a different line than “Phantom Curse”?There was a problem fetching the tweet
was this ever talked about?
Shadow is getting that big reveal with Tails obviously.I feel like the next reveal is REALLY going to be a throwdown between Loz and Vergeben.
I feel incredibly confident in Vergeben's claims, but Loz is a lot shakier... However, a LOT of people are throwing their hat into the Skull Kid ring, so I could see it happening.
I think the main thing I'm more interested in is the Echoes.
Skull Kid + Incineroar + Geno make sense if you mash both leaker's claims together.
And then on the Echoes side you have:
Isabelle, Ken.
I actually wonder if this Direct is where Shadow would get confirmed, since NO ONE has hinted at him, yet his AT being absent is incredibly strange... and I can't imagine Sonic being passed over for a new character if other 3rd party franchises start getting them.
Well, the classic NES games are already revealed, so they don’t mean a lot.There was a problem fetching the tweet
https://twitter.com/NintendoBasics/status/1039264127728799745
was this ever talked about?
Pretty sure most Zelda titles that start with "the" do the same thing or similarThe “leaked” Zelda logo looks a bit...off. Why is the word “The” on a different line than “Phantom Curse”?
Is Loz actually banking on Isaac? He seems to be dry humping the Skull Kid bandwagon, but the only Isaac-related thing I've seen from him is the sunset tweet.I'd love to see a character neither Verge nor LoZ have said anything about, just to throw a wrench into the system. Shadow, like you mentioned, Elma, of BWD would be my top picks. LoZ is also really seemingly banking on Isaac, but we don't know if that's genuine or not.
It's fake. The Mario font is a fan made one and the Mario and Daisy models are taken from Super Mario Run.There was a problem fetching the tweet
https://twitter.com/NintendoBasics/status/1039264127728799745
was this ever talked about?
It's fake. Everything there is stuff that we already know about or has been heavily rumoured. The Mario and Daisy picture is made using Mario Run. Also if it was real they'd actually show the Smash character revealed.There was a problem fetching the tweet
https://twitter.com/NintendoBasics/status/1039264127728799745
was this ever talked about?
My fanboy sensibilities demand he stay voiced by Vegeta.New English voices eh?
Kinda disappointed isn’t voiced by Alexis Tipton this time around, and is in Union VO Hell, but I kinda would like Michelle Ruff to voice
And NEEDS to have Crispin Freeman as his new VO. Please. My fangirl sensibilities demand it
Speaking of, who’s ‘s voice actor, anyone know?
the choice of fonts is giving me physical pain. especially that NES one.There was a problem fetching the tweet
https://twitter.com/NintendoBasics/status/1039264127728799745
was this ever talked about?
Well this is interesting!There was a problem fetching the tweet
https://twitter.com/NintendoBasics/status/1039264127728799745
was this ever talked about?
Right now I'd bank on Isaac as the reason why we still haven't got a direct date.Is Loz actually banking on Isaac? He seems to be dry humping the Skull Kid bandwagon, but the only Isaac-related thing I've seen from him is the sunset tweet.
Thanks for the tips As i said i 'couldn't find ways to be consistently good' so i don't think i was playing him properly too.If you think those are his good moves then you didn't play Mega Man properly. Ok, FSmash is good but FAir is terrible and completely overshadowed by BAir, UTilt is just for styling when you have that USmash, Dash Attack is okay and lol DSmash lol
USmash, DTilt, BAir, Nair, Neutral B are what I'd call his best moves.
Also, UAir and DAir have their uses, the former can kill surprisingly early and DAir is good against low recoveries.
That's a BIG assumption, especially considering it could just as well be literally any-other game.Right now I'd bank on Isaac as the reason why we still haven't got a direct date.
Really?Right now I'd bank on Isaac as the reason why we still haven't got a direct date.
The way the Zelda title looks it seems to be a handheld style title (like Phantom Hourglass or ALBW) so I don't think it would interfere that much.Like Nintendo would announce a brand new Zelda game like only 3 months before it comes out.
Nvm the fact that itd interfere with Smash Ultimate as their big holiday game.