If vergeben is accurate, and this new Indies Direct does end up having at least a hint of a new indie-related Smash characters, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed for any of these:
Square-Enix: Crono- Usually tops the charts as the best and most memorable RPG of all time; at least here in the West. I'm not sure how the Japanese feel about it. Would be super cool if they loved the game too. It shouldn't be too hard to differentiate him from the other 'anime swordsman' given his Lightning elemental focus and ability to do team attacks. Good alternative would be Magus, since a Scythe character would be awesome.
Square Enix: Sephiroth- Still clinging to that Hero vs Villain thing (sorry to those who hate that), he is just as memorable as Cloud himself. Plus, his style and the sword itself would lend itself to an entirely different kind of swordsman (the way he holds and uses it is more similar to a Samurai than a Knight).
Square Enix: Geno- Don't care for him myself or see his appeal, but he's certainly possible given the acknowledgement Sakurai made to him last game with the Mii Costume. I just hope he's as cool as everybody is hyping him up to be.
Square Enix: Kefka- From the FF game that is considered the best before RPGs became mainstream thanks to the Playstation, Kefka is the most well-known FF Villain aside from Sephiroth. It would give us another Magic user, but this one more erratic; essentially a Magical Joker, which could lead to a very interesting Smash character. Pretty unlikely, though, if I'm to be honest. At least the others I mentioned have a chance.
Indie: Shantae- Recently played her game and I loved it; she's got a lot of moveset potential and as I had learned; does have prior Nintendo association.
Other than Shovel Knight and Sans, probably among the most recognizable of the Indie choices right now.
I'd be super happy if any of those are added. Though to be fair, since I dont care too much about Geno, I would be slightly dissapointed; I just included him due to how likely he is at this point.
As for the SE thing, no idea who or what made Verge think we're getting another one. Really wish he would've clarified a bit more on that. I'll be patient and wait for an answer from him, but the way he's handling this feels like the whole "Decidueye/Mimikyu/Lycanroc are disconfirmed, but I don't know for sure who the rep is" debacle from last month. It's fishy and comes across as another attempt to drag the spotlight back on himself.
I thought about that, but I think the reason he can't be specific about it might be due to the fact that he has multiple sources. If he has, let's say, 3 sources and all of them say "its not Lycanroc, Decidueye, or Mimikyu", then thats how he can definitively say that, but if two of them are unsure of the actual rep and only 1 says it is definitively Incineroar, then that might be why he's hesitant to outright state that its Incineroar (since he's desperately trying to avoid being wrong and unwilling to commit to it with only 1 source being absolutely sure). Thats just my 2 cents on that whole thing, anyway.