That's true, but I'd say that a good chunk of those who missed out on the Wii U version probably played the 3DS version (I mean, it sold nearly twice as much), which had the same roster (and arguably the better mode). That said, you're definitely right with the Mario Kart comparison. There's a large crowd that most likely went by without playing either version of the game, so, like most ports, it would essentially be a brand new game to them. Again though, Smash is a hype machine, and if a new game isn't happening for a few years, then I can see Nintendo doing whatever they can to get as much excitement out of this port as possible. It's a new situation for the series, just like the DLC period was, so who knows what will happen...
It all depends on when and where Nintendo has
Smash on their minds. The installments tend to be released a good five-seven years apart (the obvious exception being the original
Super Smash Bros. and
Melee at two years apart, though it's painfully obvious the latter was rushed to be an early release for the GameCube, as shown by all of its... interesting mechanics...), and with
Smash 4 being released in late 2014, I think 2019 is when we should start considering the possibility of
Smash 5 a guarantee. By the time 2018 ends, the
Smash 4 Deluxe boat will have already sailed (of course that depends on weather they keep releasing ports from the Wii U to the Switch, though I have a feeling that
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze will be the last one, or one of the final ports at least). And I am aware of the issue of DLC pushing
Smash 4 development into early 2016; as you mentioned, this is new ground for us. On one hand, the time taken for DLC wouldn't really matter. On the other hand, it could, and we may need to wait one or two more years for a new installment.
2018, in my opinion, is just a weird time for
Smash; it's both too early for
Smash 5 and too late for
Smash 4 Deluxe. Yes, I am aware they are continuing to release ports, though as time goes on likelihood decreases more and more. I think E3 is our last chance to get a port. If we get no
Smash news by then, we'll probably need to start accepting
Smash 5 as the inevitable.
That said, I'm certainly expecting
Smash 5 to be later down the Switch's lifespan than most. My prediction is a reveal in 2019, along with a trailer with some newcomer announcements, akin to
Brawl and
Smash 4. Then, we'll continue to get trickles of information regarding characters, stages, modes, and more until the release, which I would personally pinpoint somewhere in 2020-2021, depending on how late into 2019 the game is revealed.
cut. Unlike last game, I'm not expecting any newcomers I want to get in so I've cut off that source of anticipation. What Smash needs is a new director that will take the franchise in a new direction and takes risk with it like what Nintendo did to Mario and Zelda last year. Otherwise, the frachise will stagnate as we've already added the most important characters that will bring in sales (except arguably Inklings). Eventually something has to change because if I see the next Smash game that's the same things but possibly more stuff, I'm going to have second thoughts about picking up the game.
