I'm not sure we'll see anything in relation to Geno for a while, if he's in then I get the feeling he'll be the last newcomer shown, and if he isn't then it's unlikely he even has a role in the game at all.
At the very least Loz18 has gotten a lot of things right up until now, and in great detail aswell. His behaviour is a little bit odd, and he unnecessarily adds a lot of his own speculation into his posts which creates a lot of confusion, but there's no doubt he has at least had legitimate information at one point, and is also still part of a circle of people sharing potential insider information with each other.
This NeoGAF guy is just running off of predicting Chrom would be a Roy echo, he's no more credible than say the Imgur leak which got Snake right. There are plenty of other suspicious things about that leak, like a Galacta Knight echo despite Meta Knight having a Galacta Knight recolor (which does not fly, as seen by Samus' Dark Samus recolor being removed), or the Monster Hunter character being so far behind in development that it's not ready to be shown a mere 4 months before release.