People, it's not as simple as it being a popularity contest. While being
prominent within the generation helps, there are other factors at play here than whether the collective community approves of their inclusion. Remember,
unique traits and high moveset potential are among the most important factors for a character's inclusion, and Pokémon characters generally have the latter covered with how huge their movepools are. We know from Sakurai's word that they consider how a character would fight and it goes directly into deciding who to pull the trigger on, not as an afterthought after they're already chosen the way many seem to assume.
It's not about who they are or where they're from or even how much the fans think they "deserve" it, it's about what they can do.
That said, I kind of have strong opinions on Pokémon candidates, to where I think getting more than one is very possible if we see enough new content. Here's where I think their chances lie:
Top Tier
I actually think Decidueye
is the most likely choice, and even the second most likely newcomer overall after the Inklings, but not for the reasons that are generally assumed. We have no need to "complete the starter triangle", but the fact that we have no characters with plant-based powers right now means a newcomer who specializes in them is inherently unique and interesting. Combine that with a much more intricate use of archery than the four neutral specials we've seen so far and avian traits such as wing sweeps and multiple midair jumps, and you have a legitimately compelling choice even after you cut out the misinformation.
High Tier
Any of y'all who've seen my Challenger Approaching video series knows I think these guys are being super overlooked. Lycanroc in either form has high prominence both in the promotional material leading up to release
and ingame thanks to being the signature 'mon of the region's professor, one of the island kahunas, and due to that,
two important endgame fights. Being Rock types, they're masters of earth elemental attacks, which are
also nearly nonexistent in Smash and would make them highly unique among the rest of the roster (and different from Isaac's take on the element, if he ends up a Ballot pick). And now Ash has a Rockruff in the anime to use as inspiration, and
placeholder data was found in the Global Link's code for more Lycanroc forms, suggesting they have further plans for this line. Any Lycanroc form would work, with the most likely being whichever form Ash's Rockruff evolves into...or perhaps you could have one that shifted between forms as a sort of stance system?
Mid Tier
This is where the unconventional-yet-interesting stuff pops up. Silvally's tragic lore and position as the rival Gladion's signature 'mon might be enough to get a look. There're quite a few ways to build a character concept out of the chimera's RKS system, able to change its affinity to any type in the game with the proper equipment. Would another stance system be in the cards here, maybe complete with basic elemental attacks that'd become enhanced depending on the drive currently equipped?
You know how Nintendo/Game Freak/etc. have been on a real trip about Gen 1 nostalgia lately? The regional variants in Alola were one way of combining old and new, and I wouldn't quite put it past all parties involved to try and do something similar for Smash as a way of showcasing both Pokémon's beginning and its modern age--not "representing", mind you; it'd just be one way of making the character in question interesting. I think Alolan Ninetales specifically would get the nod in that scenario because of the Vulpix Lillie owns in the anime--having an animated counterpart isn't
crucial for Smash, but it does help. She'd be unconventional yet graceful in her own way, combining fluid movement with a mastery of ice and cold in ways not even the Ice Climbers can match, allowing both to coexist without intruding on each other. Could even use one or more of her tails to carry items!
"Wait", you might be wondering, "All the way down here?" While Mimikyu is a hit among fans, popularity can only carry a character so far. We've seen many fan favorites miss the cut for various reasons, while surprises like the Wii Fit Trainer found a place despite being off everyone's radars. In the end, it's a character's concept that makes their case the most...and Mimikyu's unconventional body shape and lack of limbs other than a single shadowy arm would be very difficult to get to work in Smash's environment. While Sakurai and his team have come up with ideas we'd never have considered, they aren't miracle workers--this is a potential roadblock that limits what Mimikyu can do and we should treat it as such, not wave it off and assume they'd find a way around it and make a full moveset anyway. Remember how many people assumed they'd solve the issues they were having with the Ice Climbers?
I admit, I don't have as clear a picture on this one. Tapu Koko plays an important role in both the games and anime, as the warrior-like guardian spirit of Melemele Island. There's an argument to be made, potentially, but Tapu Koko's lightning-based abilities would need to be handled in a way that felt both true to character and different enough from Pikachu, Robin, and any other users of electric attacks.
Low Tier
Oof. Why do I have a
wrestler, such a natural fit for a fighting game, ranked this low? Well...think of how many physically oriented fire users we already have: Mario, Bowser, Charizard, Captain Falcon, Roy...the list goes on for a while. When this style of this element is already so prevalent, I just think it'd be a tall order to justify
another physical-based fire user when there are so many other compelling choices who don't have such issues, even despite Incineroar's other, heel-like traits. I think he'll be too low priority compared even to other characters from the same series.
But Incineroar isn't even the worst off of the starters. Being in a platform fighter entails being able to run, jump, and generally get around in a 2D platforming environment with little trouble. When you're a sea lion and don't have actual legs...it presents a problem. That said, I could see Primarina working in Pokkén's environment with its more outlandish movesets
.