Smash 4 Speculation Chart [WE UPDATE NOW]

[Neanderthal]

Kazuya has been the main character of Tekken before, Namco has chosen him to be the main Tekken rep in other games, his inclusion isn't based off another Tekken character getting in first.


Off the top of my head (I didn't look at Swampy's list):

[collapse=More likely than Medusa]Toad
Bowser Jr.
Waluigi
Paper Mario
K. Rool
Dixie
Ridley
Krystal
Mewtwo
Zoroark
Goroh
Roy
Chrom
Palutena
Little Mac
Isaac
Shulk
Saki
Takamaru
Mega Man[/collapse]


Let's see, first of all, villains don't get extra points for being villains, just like females don't get extra points for being females, and female villains don't get any extra points for being... female villains.

Secondly, the other Sakurai villain (Dedede) was cut twice, so he could include characters he didn't have an impact on so he wouldn't be thought of as biased. The Sakurai point doesn't work here.

You're really arguing that Sakurai bias doesn't exist?

I personally doubt that we would have ever had 3 Kirby reps in Brawl if it wasn't Sakurai's franchise.

Also just look how Kirby is made to appear as Mario's equal or the second most prominent protagonist after Mario (e.g. in Subspace Emmisary). Without Sakurai he would be waaaay down in the pecking order in that regard.

You both came up with good 20 most likely lists I'll admit. So even if you concede that she's only in the top 30 most likely characters, it's still bizare excluding such a likely character from a 74 man list.

Again, Sakurai has stated the importance of a characters presence on a Nintendo console. Kazuya has only ever been the protagonists evil father in Nintendo.
There's just no way Kazuya is getting in without Jin.
Even Jin has got to be considered an incredible long shot given the games popularity on Xbox and Playstation and lack of popularity on Nintendo. But that's beside the point.

 

[N3ON]

You're really arguing that Sakurai bias doesn't exist?

I personally doubt that we would have ever had 3 Kirby reps in Brawl if it wasn't Sakurai's franchise.

Also just look how Kirby is made to appear as Mario's equal or the second most prominent protagonist after Mario (e.g. in Subspace Emmisary). Without Sakurai he would be waaaay down in the pecking order in that regard.

I'm not arguing against the prominence of the Kirby characters' role in the SSE, that was due to bias, but before Sakurai even gets to that stage, he decides the roster, and so far that has been done three times without bias. It is very likely we would've had three Kirby characters in Brawl no matter who was developing it, in fact it's fairly likely we would've gotten a second before Brawl. King Dedede had been a very popular suggestion since Melee, and pre-Brawl he peaked. Post-Melee Meta-Knight became increasingly popular, in part to his playable role in Nightmare in Dreamland, and by the time of Brawl's trailer, he had overtaken Dedede as most popular Kirby character, though obviously Dedede also still had a lot of popularity.

In addition, Kirby is not some minor series. Of the series in Smash, it is the fifth best selling, one of the larger ones, and especially popular in Japan. Both Dedede and MK easily deserved their spots in Brawl, and if it wasn't for Sakurai's bias, we would've seen a Kirby character even sooner.

Palutena has enough going for her that Sakurai would probably feel justified in adding her even with the hesitation he feels in including his characters (which Palutena basically is), but Sakurai's bias against his own characters is basically the only thing Palutena has going against her. It's definitely enough to likely keep the amount of KI newcomers at one.

Again, Sakurai has stated the importance of a characters presence on a Nintendo console. Kazuya has only ever been the protagonists evil father in Nintendo.

All Sakurai has said is the character needed to have had an appearance on a Nintendo system. He didn't specify the magnitude of the appearance.

There's just no way Kazuya is getting in without Jin.
Even Jin has got to be considered an incredible long shot given the games popularity on Xbox and Playstation and lack of popularity on Nintendo. But that's beside the point.

Because Metal Gear Solid games have been sooooo popular on Nintendo systems.

Have you forgotten Namco has acknowledged the apparent requests for a Tekken character in Smash? Have you forgotten Kazuya has been the main/central character in several Tekken titles before as chosen by Namco? No one is saying he has better chances than Jin, but, and you can deny as much as you want, there is a chance, if we do get a Tekken character (a single Tekken character) it will be Kazuya.

 

[Frostwraith]

 

[Neanderthal]

Oh so now Sakurai bias means bias against his own characters?

Ofcourse theres a "chance" that we will get Kazuya without Jin. Just like theres a "chance" albeit very marginal, that we will get Medusa without Palutena.
We can argue all day about which set of odds has the most 0's after the decimal place, but I still find the omission of one and not the other hypocritical.

 

[Frostwraith]

Oh so now Sakurai bias means bias against his own characters?

Ofcourse theres a "chance" that we will get Kazuya without Jin. Just like theres a "chance" albeit very marginal, that we will get Medusa without Palutena.
If we wan't to argue which ones odds has the most 0's after the decimal place we can, but I still find the omission of one and not the other hypocritical.

He DID say he didn't include King Dedede (one of his own characters) in Smash 64 out of fear that his series would be over represented.

Well, I do agree that there are such chances, but the chart itself is for the characters that have the highest chance, not just any character.

Seeing as Hades hijacked Medusa as the main villain in Uprising, the most recent and memorable Kid Icarus game, while Palutena maintained prominence throughout the story, it's easy to see that Palutena's chances are much higher. Palutena is also the most requested Kid Icarus character, which proves that she's popular.

Of course that I am not denying the fact there's a possibility for Medusa to appear, but Palutena is the more expected character, thus she's on the chart while Medusa is not.

 

[Deleted member]

Kazuya is not dependant on Jin.
Kazuya was the original protagonist of the series until he took over Heihachi's role as the antagonist.
And then Jin took the role of protagonist (after Heihachi did for one game), then took over KAZYUA'S role as antagonist with Lars taking over as the protagonist. While Heihachi is just chillin' and trying to get young again (and sending his family into space and into Earth's atmosphere...)

By your logic, ManBearPig, Jin is dependant on Lars.

Kazuya is typically used along with Heihachi as Tekken representation in spin-offs.

 

[FalKoopa]

Another Ove situation is brewing. Interesting.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I really don't think Tekken is likely compared to Pac-Man or the Tales series, but thats my opinion. I don't see why any character that is 3rd party to Smash Bros. would need another to get in, unless it was a side character. So for example, Rawk Hawk only getting in based off of Paper Mario being included. Get what i'm saying?

@ N3ON I wouldn't compare anything to Metal Gear Solid in Smash simply because there was special reasoning for Snake's inclusion, which in Tekken's case isn't necessarily applicable (correct me if i'm wrong though).

 

[Deleted member]

According to Namco-Bandai, Tekken received the most buzz from fans when it was revealed that they were working on the new Smash.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

According to Namco-Bandai, Tekken received the most buzz from fans when it was revealed that they were working on the new Smash.

Interesting. How many Tekken games have appeared on Nintendo consoles? I know they just had Tag tournament 2. I always pictured Tekken as a Sony type game for some reason.

 

[Deleted member]

There is Tekken 3D Prime Edition on 3DS, and Tekken Advance for the GBA.

With three games, that's about the same as Snake before Brawl.

 

[N3ON]

Oh so now Sakurai bias means bias against his own characters?

Uh... yeah. Do some research.

Ofcourse theres a "chance" that we will get Kazuya without Jin. Just like theres a "chance" albeit very marginal, that we will get Medusa without Palutena.
We can argue all day about which set of odds has the most 0's after the decimal place, but I still find the omission of one and not the other hypocritical.

Golden covered this pretty well.

@ N3ON I wouldn't compare anything to Metal Gear Solid in Smash simply because there was special reasoning for Snake's inclusion, which in Tekken's case isn't necessarily applicable (correct me if i'm wrong though).

Snake is just an example that Sakurai will accept characters that didn't have their largest impact on a Nintendo system. Sure, Kojima requested Snake's inclusion, but with Namco aware Tekken is the most requested of their series (which I'm personally not thrilled about), who's to say they won't request a Tekken character to Sakurai? A Tekken character wouldn't get in due to general popularity, like Sonic or possibly Mega Man, it would also need special reasoning to get in.

Also, I'm going to repost this question for Golden, cause it got lost on the last page:
If Palutena is confirmed, will Medusa then be added to the chart, or will she only be added if she herself is confirmed?

 

[Deleted member]

No.
Simply because each character on the chart is meant to be as if the other options were not chosen withing their series.
Not that they can't be chosen as well, but that is how it is intended.
Medusa would be added to the list of Unexpected if she managed to get in after Palutena.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Uh... yeah. Do some research.



Golden covered this pretty well.



Snake is just an example that Sakurai will accept characters that didn't have their largest impact on a Nintendo system. Sure, Kojima requested Snake's inclusion, but with Namco aware Tekken is the most requested of their series (which I'm personally not thrilled about), who's to say they won't request a Tekken character to Sakurai? A Tekken character wouldn't get in due to general popularity, like Sonic or possibly Mega Man, it would also need special reasoning to get in.

Also, I'm going to repost this question for Golden, cause it got lost on the last page:
If Palutena is confirmed, will Medusa then be added to the chart, or will she only be added if she herself is confirmed?

Alright. Yea I agree with this when looking at it that way.

There is Tekken 3D Prime Edition on 3DS, and Tekken Advance for the GBA.

With three games, that's about the same as Snake before Brawl.

Alright, gotcha. So Tekken has three games, what about Pac-Man and Tales? I just mean as a comparison because I think its fairly obvious that Namco will be getting some sort of representation. Its also a point to be made that games alone will not get a character in, but it means something unless you're Solid Snake (apparently lol). Plus I think its a good subject to try to figure out who's more likely to be the rep. I still like Lloyd most out of all of them (I've never played ToS, but I just won it on Ebay and will soon enough).

The idea of Heihachi or some other character being in Smash just seems uncomfortable to me because of Heihachi being in PSAS. I'd rather see a character that hasn't been in a game like Smash yet. This could mean another character from Tekken though. i just don't want to see Heihachi.

Pac-man just doesn't really interest me that much. That just opinion though.

 

[Deleted member]

"Character that hasn't been in a game like Smash yet".
Snake was in DreamMix TV World Fighters before he was in Brawl.

As for number of games, that doesn't matter.
Sakurai's two guidelines for 3rd Parties:
-They must have debuted in a video game. (So no Batman, Naruto, etc.)
-They must have been on a Nintendo system. (So no Master Chief, Kratos, etc.)

We only have two examples of 3rd Parties in Smash, one that got in through creator request (Snake), and one that got in through supreme fan demand (Sonic). We cannot make our own distinctions on what makes a 3rd Party more likely in this case.

 

[AEMehr]

So uh Golden, when do you plan on updating the list?

 

[Deleted member]

Whenever I get that confirmation on that one particular issue.
If I don't get any confirmation, I'll just update it anyway.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Whenever I get that confirmation on that one particular issue.
If I don't get any confirmation, I'll just update it anyway.

You mean The Wonderful 101 thing? Well, there is this The Wonder 101 trademark thing for Nintendo of America. Not sure if that's good enough to consider, but I presume the IP The Wonderful 101 is at least 2nd Party if Nintendo owns a part of it and Platinum Games (logically) owns the other.

 

[Deleted member]

Well there is THAT, but what I was talking about was an addition I was planning.
It was something I was asking in the Roster Discussion Thread.

With the Wonderful 101 thing, I'll just wait until the official website pops up.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

If Namco gets a character, and they probably will, it would most likely be Pac-Man or a Tales character (Lloyd Irving pretty much).

Not counting out Tekken, it is quite possible for a character like Jin, Kazuya, or King, but the two franchises above seem more likely.

 

[FalKoopa]

King Boo was added due to Luigi's Mansion - Dark Moon, I suppose. Is there any other reason?

Spoiler

I wish Lyn were on that chart. After her appearance as an AT in Brawl, I hope that she makes the cut.

Ah, but worry not. I won't whine about her like Adeliene.

 

[Neanderthal]

The Miis have been removed due to what I had seen in the Iwata Asks.



This is a pretty big hint that Miis are "too casual oriented" for Sakurai's tastes.

There are two reasons as to why I believe Mii has been removed incorrectly.

1) He was talking about Brawl. SSB4 is a different game and they may decide to take it in a different direction.
Unless there is proof that he intends to go in the same direction again, Mii needs to be re-added.

2) This was before Mii's had become a Ninendo Icon. The pure iconic status that the Mii has gained since could override any pre-contrived idealogies Sakurai may have had.


An example of a similar situation in which Sakurai changed his mind was when he used to hold that Super Smash Brothers was a game for Nintendo characters only.
Evidently he decided to take a different direction with Brawl.
(This point is irrelevant however, since a change of philosophy from game to game is possible whether or not he can be shown to have done so previously).


I hope you decide to reconsider Mii's inclusion in light of these facts.
Cheers.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I agree with ManBearPig. They should at least be on the list.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Regardless, we are not going to add Mii onto the chart again as long as the statement stating they're "too casual" to work in Super Smash Bros. is present. If something crops up to say otherwise, then Mii will be re-added to the chart.

 

[Neanderthal]

Regardless, we are not going to add Mii onto the chart again as long as the statement stating they're "too casual" to work in Super Smash Bros. is present. If something crops up to say otherwise, then Mii will be re-added to the chart.

I'll wait for Goldens final evaluation.


But out of curiosity, what basis are you using to support this claim that Mii is "too casual" for Super Smash Brothers 4?
A statement about SSB 4? Or a statement about SSB Brawl?

 

[Deleted member]

Going by that logic, I should add Goku and Master Chief to the chart because Sakurai's guidelines for guests was only for Brawl and nothing had been said for Smash 4.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Going by that logic, I should add Goku and Master Chief to the chart because Sakurai's guidelines for guests was only for Brawl and nothing had been said for Smash 4.

But Mii's not exactly a guest. Is he? She? Uh...Them?

 

[Deleted member]

But Mii's not exactly a guest. Is he? She? Uh...Them?

That is rather beside the point. The point was that if I should consider him "changing his mind" on one thing, I should do it for others. That includes guests that didn't follow his Brawl guidelines, negative statements in regards to Sukapon, etc.

EDIT: The reason the Crosser is on the chart is not for the possibility of him "changing his mind" on the issue, but rather because he backpeddled his initial stance with a counterpoint ("Can't really fight" to "It is possible to have a character armed with a bug net and shovel."). Just like Ridley.

 

[Neanderthal]

Going by that logic, I should add Goku and Master Chief to the chart because Sakurai's guidelines for guests was only for Brawl and nothing had been said for Smash 4.

Not at all. The difference is Goku and Master Chief are not Nintendo Icons with a very realistic chance of getting in, all things considered.


Am I wrong is assuming that the main criteria that you are using is estimated chance of inclusion in SSB4? (ALL things considered to estimate this chance)
Iconic status is a valid consideration that can make up for chance reduction made by the Brawl quote.

If so, you need to honestly believe that Mii has a smaller chance of inclusion than virtually every other character on your list.
You must believe that Mii has less chance than Heihachi Mishma, Waddle Dee and Slippy for example. Is that so?

I agree that the Brawl Sakurai quote makes his chances smaller. But it is a long way from ruling out his inclusion and it certainly doesn't make him less likely than everyone on the chart.
You have to be mad to consider Mii still at a lower chance than characters like the aforementioned or other more obscure characters you included.

If I'm wrong in assuming that chance of inclusion in SSB4 is the main criteria for appearance on your chart, then you need to make that clear in order to protect the credibility of this chart.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think the statement that Sakurai made regarding Miis being "too casual" was for Smash Bros. in general. The installment of the series this statement was made for is basically irrelevant.

Note that while Sakurai made comments on changing his mind about Ridley and an Animal Crossing character, there is nothing pointing towards him changing his mind about the Mii's. Without an actual statement, the basis for the Miis reinstallment on the chart would be based on something completely circumstantial.

I don't really see why it matters anyway. It might make sense to add them to the chart. But really, if they get added, they will be in the unexpected characters list anyway.

 

[N3ON]

Even with all Sakurai's said about Miis, I would still include them on the chart. However, it's not my chart, and Golden has his reasoning, so there's not much point in complaining any more.

 

[FalKoopa]

I think people are taking this chart a bit too seriously. Golden also has provisions for including unexpected characters, so I don't see a reason for any additions or cuts at the moment. After all, it's not like the characters not in the chart don't have a chance at all.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Why is Namco content so obvious and expected by many? I'm not seeing any Tekken character happen yet, only as costumes maybe.

 

[FalKoopa]

Why is Namco content so obvious and expected by many? I'm not seeing any Tekken character happen yet, only as costumes maybe.

People are expecting a Namco rep as they are developing the game, duh. It is only logical to expect Namco to try to advertise their characters in the expected-to-be console seller.

Well, to be frank, the only Namco character that piques my interest is Lloyd.

 

[Diddy Kong]

It shouldn't be taken for granted though.

Which was all I was saying.

 

[Deleted member]

Nothing should really be taken for granted at this point.

 

[Diddy Kong]

So stop saying Sheik will definitely get in then please?



Am a little headstrong, can't help iittttttt.

 

[FalKoopa]

So stop saying Sheik will definitely get in then please?



Am a little headstrong, can't help iittttttt.

Then also stop saying that Impa will definitely replace Sheik.

To be honest, I expect the Melee veterans to be shoe-ins.

 

[Diddy Kong]

So Dr.Mario will definitely return?

 

[Deleted member]

So stop saying Sheik will definitely get in then please?



Am a little headstrong, can't help iittttttt.

Go screw yourself. Any more of this crap, and Impa gets cut off the chart completely. It's bad enough I have to see her ugly face every time it gets updated.