Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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I'm not advocating a mass claim quite yet.
I have no qualms with GhebinM claims tomorrow.
I have no qualms with GhebinM claims tomorrow.
-
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Skies of Arcadia Mafia - Game Over! Indy (AM) Wins!
- Thread starter Raziek
- Start date
^Think this gif is hilarious for this game for some reason w.r.t. J vs. Gheb. Yes, that's salt.
Probably either doing one of these tonight:
A.) Finishing up the DGames interview then getting to this.
B.) Finish up the DGames interview then get to this tomorrow
C.) Do both tomorrow.
Don't see how that's supposed to be funny but w/e.
I got an exam today but I will definitely look into the possibility of Kevscum after that [it will be in like 4 hours]. Orbo is still likely scum but I feel like Kevin's flip may be crucial - the missing piece of the puzzle so to speak and if Kevin is scum I'm like 99% sure that the game is won.
I got an exam today but I will definitely look into the possibility of Kevscum after that [it will be in like 4 hours]. Orbo is still likely scum but I feel like Kevin's flip may be crucial - the missing piece of the puzzle so to speak and if Kevin is scum I'm like 99% sure that the game is won.
So here's the deal about Kevin: After Marshman pointed out how similar Kevin's and my reads are I started to realize that it's not only extremely unusual but also that it's typical for Kevinscum to buddy Ghebtown in on way or another. Started in Simpsons Mafia and went at least all the way to FFVII remix. This is similar to how he plays now considering he's 'covering my back' by pushing the same lynches as me without actually defending me. This had me reconsider the scumpool for a moment and think about what a Kevin flip does for us. It may actually be the most illuminating one in the game.
If we assume Kevinscum for a moment that'd mean that he bussed Gorf. But it's still very likely that he's also bussing *somebody* toDay considering how unlikely it is that nobody out of Orbo, Rockin or J is actually scum and Kevin has pushed all three lynches and still supports them. If any of those were to be lynched and to flip scum toDay then Kevin would not only gain credibility for having lynched 2 scumbags in this game but would also look strong in front of AM / myself [for sharing similar reads] and still not have alienated Marsh [townread by the majority] too much - incidentally, these are the only players in the game Kevin would hesitate to throw under the bus. Coincidence? I doubt it. The way Kevin is playing this game is EXTREMELY rewarding for a scumbag because he looks good for lynching the baddies and looks good for going down the same road as the goodies.
Now, if he's town things are bit more difficult I admit. However, I don't think the way he's played so far justifies a town read on him anyway. And if it happens at least it would confirm that AM / myself have probably been on the right track, considering how reliable Kevin's scumdar is and how we all came to our conclusions independently. That'd mean we're pretty much set to rip apart of whoever is possibly left of the scumteam, which - minus the recruitee - would have to be pretty *** anyway.
If Kevin is scum - which I repeat seems extremely likely at this point to me - then we've virtually won this game already and if Kevin flips town we definitely know which direction is the right one to go and we can proceed to do our thing. Unless we have some crazy, unlikely **** going on like Marshyscum with JTB / Soup as buddies then a Kevin lynch will virtually open the door for us to win the game. At this point AM could only be scum upon a Kevintown flip in my book, LAK is the closest thing we have to a clear and J can only be scum if neither Kevin nor Orb are the recruitee.
tl;dr
Lynch Kevin, then Orb; Orb is the safety net as he's 90% scum regardless of what Kevin flips.
Vote KevinM
Macman, I know you're down for his lynch. J I know you're down for his lynch too. AM, unless you think there's nothing odd about Kevin's reads matching those from both of us [quite possibly the least likely constellation of reads you could possibly imagine in dGames] you have no reason to not suspect him either. LAK, you're down for this if J is, right? We can definitely make this happen.
If we assume Kevinscum for a moment that'd mean that he bussed Gorf. But it's still very likely that he's also bussing *somebody* toDay considering how unlikely it is that nobody out of Orbo, Rockin or J is actually scum and Kevin has pushed all three lynches and still supports them. If any of those were to be lynched and to flip scum toDay then Kevin would not only gain credibility for having lynched 2 scumbags in this game but would also look strong in front of AM / myself [for sharing similar reads] and still not have alienated Marsh [townread by the majority] too much - incidentally, these are the only players in the game Kevin would hesitate to throw under the bus. Coincidence? I doubt it. The way Kevin is playing this game is EXTREMELY rewarding for a scumbag because he looks good for lynching the baddies and looks good for going down the same road as the goodies.
Now, if he's town things are bit more difficult I admit. However, I don't think the way he's played so far justifies a town read on him anyway. And if it happens at least it would confirm that AM / myself have probably been on the right track, considering how reliable Kevin's scumdar is and how we all came to our conclusions independently. That'd mean we're pretty much set to rip apart of whoever is possibly left of the scumteam, which - minus the recruitee - would have to be pretty *** anyway.
If Kevin is scum - which I repeat seems extremely likely at this point to me - then we've virtually won this game already and if Kevin flips town we definitely know which direction is the right one to go and we can proceed to do our thing. Unless we have some crazy, unlikely **** going on like Marshyscum with JTB / Soup as buddies then a Kevin lynch will virtually open the door for us to win the game. At this point AM could only be scum upon a Kevintown flip in my book, LAK is the closest thing we have to a clear and J can only be scum if neither Kevin nor Orb are the recruitee.
tl;dr
Lynch Kevin, then Orb; Orb is the safety net as he's 90% scum regardless of what Kevin flips.
Vote KevinM
Macman, I know you're down for his lynch. J I know you're down for his lynch too. AM, unless you think there's nothing odd about Kevin's reads matching those from both of us [quite possibly the least likely constellation of reads you could possibly imagine in dGames] you have no reason to not suspect him either. LAK, you're down for this if J is, right? We can definitely make this happen.
Forgot that but if the unlikely case of Kevinscum + Orbotown arises then the play is between Rockin or JTB.
Marsh at this point I have reason to see as scum and Soup / JTB can live for now by process of elimination. J is extremely scummy but any recruitee flip would clear him as long as LAK flips mason, which I have no reason to question at this point. There can be no question about myself being town either. The only variables in that are JTB who may be scum under certain circumstances and an even smaller chance of Scumsoup, both of which can be neglected up to the point where Orbo flips town. Then, and only then I'd bank on one of them being scum.
Rockinslot is irrelevant to how this plays out. He's either the #1 scumpick if Kevinscum + Orbotown or he dies somewhere along the way or he just gets to live through it. Doesn't matter and since I don't think he's scum I'm going to ignore his playerslot for the next two Day phases at least.
The rest depends on Kevin's flip as Orbo not being scum would be a miracle at this point. So lynch Kevin first and let the pieces fall into place.
Marsh at this point I have reason to see as scum and Soup / JTB can live for now by process of elimination. J is extremely scummy but any recruitee flip would clear him as long as LAK flips mason, which I have no reason to question at this point. There can be no question about myself being town either. The only variables in that are JTB who may be scum under certain circumstances and an even smaller chance of Scumsoup, both of which can be neglected up to the point where Orbo flips town. Then, and only then I'd bank on one of them being scum.
Rockinslot is irrelevant to how this plays out. He's either the #1 scumpick if Kevinscum + Orbotown or he dies somewhere along the way or he just gets to live through it. Doesn't matter and since I don't think he's scum I'm going to ignore his playerslot for the next two Day phases at least.
The rest depends on Kevin's flip as Orbo not being scum would be a miracle at this point. So lynch Kevin first and let the pieces fall into place.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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KevMo is no friend of mine and one of two that I want to follow Orbo. Orbo, however, you have as 90% chance he's scum. I've lynched secondary scum reads first before (recently it blew up in my face in MP2), but I had a reason. There's no shortage of people willing to lynch KevMo at the moment, so what makes you want to lynch him prior to Orbo?
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Oh man, the Aladdin ninja. I love you.
Even upon a Kevintown flip we'd still have Orbo to 'rectify' the 'mistake'. And it blew up in MP2 but I doubt it's the same situation considering only one townie died so far and scum has already lost a player themselves. Not to mention that you had a somewhat similar plan in FFT work out perfectly and essentially winning the game for town.
If we don't do it now it'll probably be to late unless another Night without a kill happens.
If we don't do it now it'll probably be to late unless another Night without a kill happens.
#HBC | ѕoup
The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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*read gheb wall*
Vote: KevinM
Vote: KevinM
Marshmellowman
Macman|marshy
gheb so your reasoning for kevinscuM is basically that he's buddied you and might be bussing his mates?
He's buddied virtually everybody that he might consider a threat to him [AM, myself] or at least he didn't rile them up in a manner that made people suspicious of him [MM]. And we always have to assume busses happening in a game where J, Kevin, AM, yourself and myself are present. It's not like this should come off to you as surprising, should it?
Think about how much Kevin gains from his play if he's scum ... and what he gains from playing this way as town. If you break that equation down you'd see how much sense it makes.
Think about how much Kevin gains from his play if he's scum ... and what he gains from playing this way as town. If you break that equation down you'd see how much sense it makes.
Marshmellowman
Macman|marshy
its just funny you considered my reasoning for kevinscuM to be shallow when yours was just he could be bussing(which is always a given/he could also be just playing good town) and that hes buddied ppl like you and AM which isn't really that strong of an argument
but ok
but ok
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Why? Craft the worst case scenario with an Orbo lynch. He flips town PR of some sort and we go into night phase. Worst case scenario is probably Marshy dying. We go into Day phase tomorrow. J and LAK start knocking on your door. I still hate J, but he's the recruit, so I'm not pushing him. If you're right and KevMo is scum, he probably backs the Gheb push if he doesn't go shoving after Rockin. Between myself, Soup, Rockin, and Legolas, the worst case scenario for you is that you are lynched tomorrow and then every eye turns to Kevin.If we don't do it now it'll probably be to late unless another Night without a kill happens.
Let's do the math assuming no kill and (worst case scenario) 3 scum on one team.
11 alive
Orbo lynch - 10 alive
Night kill - 9 alive
Gheb lynch - 8 alive
Night kill - 7 alive
Kevmo Lynch
Even in a scenario that assumes SO MUCH (Orbo and Gheb town. Gheb lynch before Kevin lynch. No more No Kills. Three remaining scum alive. No credible investigations.) Kevin cannot win without pushing another lynch past town and I don't see him being able to do that. So what's your case for making it so much more vital to the secondary lynch? You're more confident on Orbo. I'm "SO ****ING HYPE" for that lynch because I think he's the recruiter from J's danceing around him and Gorf's awkward Rockin flip under pressure on Day 1. Here we stand to gain TWO scummies with every scum lynch we take which will reduce their power in the thread and make it nigh impossible for your theoretical KevMo scum to push the mislynches necessary to win.
Again, why? This analysis even includes the very real possibility that you could need to go before him and the game STILL isn't "probably too late."
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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EBWOP: do the math assuming no more no kills and
I find it incredibly silly that you're, once again, pushing Orbo aside so as to go after a possible bigger fish.So here's the deal about Kevin: After Marshman pointed out how similar Kevin's and my reads are I started to realize that it's not only extremely unusual but also that it's typical for Kevinscum to buddy Ghebtown in on way or another. Started in Simpsons Mafia and went at least all the way to FFVII remix. This is similar to how he plays now considering he's 'covering my back' by pushing the same lynches as me without actually defending me. This had me reconsider the scumpool for a moment and think about what a Kevin flip does for us. It may actually be the most illuminating one in the game.
If we assume Kevinscum for a moment that'd mean that he bussed Gorf. But it's still very likely that he's also bussing *somebody* toDay considering how unlikely it is that nobody out of Orbo, Rockin or J is actually scum and Kevin has pushed all three lynches and still supports them. If any of those were to be lynched and to flip scum toDay then Kevin would not only gain credibility for having lynched 2 scumbags in this game but would also look strong in front of AM / myself [for sharing similar reads] and still not have alienated Marsh [townread by the majority] too much - incidentally, these are the only players in the game Kevin would hesitate to throw under the bus. Coincidence? I doubt it. The way Kevin is playing this game is EXTREMELY rewarding for a scumbag because he looks good for lynching the baddies and looks good for going down the same road as the goodies.
Now, if he's town things are bit more difficult I admit. However, I don't think the way he's played so far justifies a town read on him anyway. And if it happens at least it would confirm that AM / myself have probably been on the right track, considering how reliable Kevin's scumdar is and how we all came to our conclusions independently. That'd mean we're pretty much set to rip apart of whoever is possibly left of the scumteam, which - minus the recruitee - would have to be pretty *** anyway.
If Kevin is scum - which I repeat seems extremely likely at this point to me - then we've virtually won this game already and if Kevin flips town we definitely know which direction is the right one to go and we can proceed to do our thing. Unless we have some crazy, unlikely **** going on like Marshyscum with JTB / Soup as buddies then a Kevin lynch will virtually open the door for us to win the game. At this point AM could only be scum upon a Kevintown flip in my book, LAK is the closest thing we have to a clear and J can only be scum if neither Kevin nor Orb are the recruitee.
tl;dr
Lynch Kevin, then Orb; Orb is the safety net as he's 90% scum regardless of what Kevin flips.
Vote KevinM
Macman, I know you're down for his lynch. J I know you're down for his lynch too. AM, unless you think there's nothing odd about Kevin's reads matching those from both of us [quite possibly the least likely constellation of reads you could possibly imagine in dGames] you have no reason to not suspect him either. LAK, you're down for this if J is, right? We can definitely make this happen.
If you truly strive for a Orbo lynch, then go for it. Waffling back and forth isn't helping anyone, especially with KevinM being lynched toDay is really unlikely.
Marshmellowman
Macman|marshy
rockin, what do YOU think about kevin?
I have him as null atm. he sounds like KevinM, as well as contributing his share of stuff. Nothing he's done so far has given me the drive to lynch him. I want to think he's town, but I'mm just not seeing it (and as such, I don't think he's scummy in any aspect I've seen from him thus far).
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Now why's that? He's fairly popular at the moment and a strong push could theoretically cause the small shift needed for quite a few people.
What would you do if KevMo had 5 votes and Orbo had 4 right now? We've got some time till deadline, so what would your plan be?
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Finished reading new stuff finally and probably going to do a full readthrough again tonight if I'm up for it. Not really interested in lynching J or LAK until the recruiter is dead and we can find them based on that flip. Willing to vote Orbo, what AM said wrt to Gorf jumping on Rockin and not Orbo makes me less confident in Rockin scum but moreso in Orbo scum. Don't want to lynch him yet though since I know Raziek is actively looking to replace him and their replacement can just claim for us before lynching the slot.
As for Rockin, I want to keep calling him scum, but his play is just so odd that I have a hard time believeing scum would act so anti-town and not correct themselves when they are pushed to L-1 because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if he was indy and not mafia.
more to come later
As for Rockin, I want to keep calling him scum, but his play is just so odd that I have a hard time believeing scum would act so anti-town and not correct themselves when they are pushed to L-1 because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if he was indy and not mafia.
more to come later
JTB are you going to spend the entire game "catching up"? I wish we could lynch you on principle.
This wagon on me is wack.
We should be lynching J/Rockin/Orbo
But y'all gotta spend the entire day bein crispy
This wagon on me is wack.
We should be lynching J/Rockin/Orbo
But y'all gotta spend the entire day bein crispy
#HBC | ѕoup
The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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He's fairly popular by mindset of two/three people and no more.
If KevinM had 5 votes, I would still not join it. I'm not much into voting him, as I do not see him being scum. A claim would probably work best with him rather then just off him, but that's just me.
I feel that the lynch pool's desire in general is bit too divided. There are several people that rather wants a lynch in this order of priority
Rockin
Orbo
J
Previously, I have yet heard of people mentioning KevinM or have shown disagreement with him.
My plan right now is to keep pushing for this legolas lynch, for it's the one lynch I currently desire.
Raziek
Charging Limit All Day
As of this post, Ramen King replaces Orboknown.
Raziek
Charging Limit All Day
Votecount 3.4
1. Rockin: Legolas > Nabe > Gorf > Legolas
2. Nabe
3. Aggressive Mediation (Ryker/WashedLaundry): Soup > Orbo
4.Orboknown Ramen King: Rockin > Nabe < Replacement here>
5. Gheb_01: LAK > Orbo > Gorf > Nabe > AM > Gorf > J > orbo > J > Orbo > KevinM
6. J: Legolas > Gorf > Lego > Gorf > AM > Gorf > Gheb_01 > Rockin > Gheb
7. KevinM: Soup > Gorf > LAK > AM > Gorf > Rockin > J
8. Soup~: J > Orbo > J > Orbo > J > Rockin > Orbo > Nabe > AM > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin > AM > orbo > KevinM > orbo
9. Lovably Adorable Kanine (Red Ruy/John2k4): Gheb > Soup > Soup > Nabe > Gorf > Rockin
10. Gorf: Orbo > Rockin > Orbo > Nabe > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin
11. Legolas: LAK > Rockin > Rockin > J > Orbo > Rockin > Soup > Rockin > Rockin > Orbo
12. Marshmellowman (Macman/marshy): Rake > Orbo > Gorf > Rockin > Nabe > Gorf > AM > Gorf > Rockin > Legolas > Rockin > Gheb > orbo
13. JTB: Gheb > Orbo > Rockin > AM > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin
Count
Orboknown Ramen King (3): AM, Legolas, Soup~
Gheb (3): Anon, J, Marshmellowman
Rockin (2): JTB, LAK
J (1): KevinM
Legolas (1): Rockin
KevinM (1): Gheb
With 11 alive, 6 to lynch! Deadline is June 27th at 11:59 PM AST!
1. Rockin: Legolas > Nabe > Gorf > Legolas
2. Nabe
3. Aggressive Mediation (Ryker/WashedLaundry): Soup > Orbo
4.
5. Gheb_01: LAK > Orbo > Gorf > Nabe > AM > Gorf > J > orbo > J > Orbo > KevinM
6. J: Legolas > Gorf > Lego > Gorf > AM > Gorf > Gheb_01 > Rockin > Gheb
7. KevinM: Soup > Gorf > LAK > AM > Gorf > Rockin > J
8. Soup~: J > Orbo > J > Orbo > J > Rockin > Orbo > Nabe > AM > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin > AM > orbo > KevinM > orbo
9. Lovably Adorable Kanine (Red Ruy/John2k4): Gheb > Soup > Soup > Nabe > Gorf > Rockin
10. Gorf: Orbo > Rockin > Orbo > Nabe > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin
11. Legolas: LAK > Rockin > Rockin > J > Orbo > Rockin > Soup > Rockin > Rockin > Orbo
12. Marshmellowman (Macman/marshy): Rake > Orbo > Gorf > Rockin > Nabe > Gorf > AM > Gorf > Rockin > Legolas > Rockin > Gheb > orbo
13. JTB: Gheb > Orbo > Rockin > AM > Rockin > Gorf > Rockin
Count
Gheb (3): Anon, J, Marshmellowman
Rockin (2): JTB, LAK
J (1): KevinM
Legolas (1): Rockin
KevinM (1): Gheb
With 11 alive, 6 to lynch! Deadline is June 27th at 11:59 PM AST!
Raziek
Charging Limit All Day
Ramen King
Smash Cadet
Man I was genuinely hoping to get mafia this game. Someone tell me all that has gone on. J since you're here n_n.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Your scum made's play has condemned you, so we're waiting on you to claim.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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EBWOP: scum mate's
Ramen King
Smash Cadet
Are you my scum mate?
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Yeah, now claim before people think that you and I are cooking up a safe claim.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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By the way, you should claim before I insinuate that you and J are cooking up a safe claim.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Seriously, you and J can stop talking now.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Ruy, KevMo, and JTB should put him at L-1.
Aggressive Mediation
Smash Lord
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Or Rockin, he would work.