In an effort to keep discussion on this thread going, I have compiled evidence that both supports and weakens Reimu's chances.
Evidence for Reimu's inclusion:
*The Touhou series is huge in japan. We're talking a legacy worth over a decade of music remixes, fan art, fan games, memes, you name it!
*ZUN is perfectly okay with licensing out his IP to other companies. (Bandai Namco, Konami, etc.)
*ZUN is a Japanese developer. If you've been keeping up with Sakurai's preferences, you'd know that gives ZUN an advantage over western developers like Ubisoft and Activision.
*Reimu would represent a new genre in Smash: Bullet Hell.
*Her specialty could involve making her play like she does in the bullet hell games, with a smaller hit box, 2 movement speeds, and a high array of projectiles. (They wouldn't cause hitstun much like Fox's lasers.)
*Reimu has also been in fighting games, and could pull from there as well.
*There is a small, but still notable counterargument towards Reimu being too niche: Simon. How long has it been since the last Castlevania game? When was the last time Castlevania had any significant relevance in the industry prior to the Belmonts making it in? The same can be said about Mega Man, though the time between the infamous cancellations and the Smash announcement was a lot shorter. (2 Years for Mega Man VS. 4 Years for Castlevania/8 if you don't count Lords of Shadow)
Evidence against Reimu's inclusion:
*It's debatable on how "niche" Touhou is compared to giants like Sonic, Mega Man, etc. I'm unsure if Sakurai would consider Reimu to be within that regard.
*It's also debatable on whether or not Sakurai would be okay with including a playable rep from an indie franchise. Shovel Knight already made it in as an Assist Trophy, and he most likely placed very high in the Fighter Ballot. (Nintendo publishing his game in Japan also helped.)
*Another major debate is whether or not we're getting more stages beyond the 103 that are already announced. If we aren't, that limits the possibility of certain fighters getting into the base roster, including Reimu.
*Sakurai has stated he's pulling from the ballot. When Pushdustin did research on what Japanese fans wanted, and made that pie chart, Reimu (or any Touhou character for that matter) did not show up. In fact, Push was unable to find any evidence of people wanting a Touhou character
*Finally, there's the "Not as many new fighters limitation." With the ballot and highly requested characters finally making it in, Sakurai would probably want to place characters who ranked high in the ballot on high priority.
At the same time, between all the bandwagoning, all the speculation, and all the digging, we don't know who actually won, or what the full results look like. Sakurai mentioned Ridley got in becuase of "fan outcry." Was he referring to how Ridley placed high in the ballot? Or was he referring to the backlash from Ridley being a boss stage hazard? Also, you know who else didn't show up at all in Push's findings? Simon and Richter. In addition, the Belmonts didn't really get much love during the era when Shovel Knight/Shantae/K.Rool/Inkling supporters ruled with an iron fist.
With Smash Bros., you never know. We'll find out what happens soon enough. For all we know, Sakurai could consider Touhou big enough to at least get an Assist Trophy like with Bomberman and Rathalos. (Which I would be fine with.)
Discuss.
along with a Scarlet Devil Mansion stage.
