Ive played a few games with Drinkingingfood and talked the mu over a bit. Sheik beats rob in neutral by just shutting down his approach with tilts, and with bairm and needles, sheik is one of the few characters that can edgeuguard ROB efficiently. If I remember correctly DF said the mu was either 65:35 or 60:40 in Sheiks favor.
I've also talked to Umbreon a little bit about it over skype. Iirc he said it was either even or slightly advantagous for ROB, and he thinks ROB is one of the best characters in the game.
I gotta agree with DF on this one, partly cause L A B O Y S, but also because I could see what he was talking about when we played, and I'm not sure how much practice Umbreon has really invested into learning to fight ROB (not to knock him of course, just seems like hes much more comfortable with the melee characters and ROB is very different).
i'll try to clarify a bit. first needles dont shut down anyones neutral, needles are either aerial and then you dont stand 45 degrees below sheik or horizontal and the animation is hella laggy and you can just block. bair/fair wall is good as is SH nair reacting to rob boosting in towards you. tilts are super risky because they open you up to robs CC grab and subsequently his entire punish game. needle harassment and safe aerials are the way to go, but they make approaching tricky- but thats a two way street because sheik has super mediocre approach options as well, thats just how the neutral plays out in this particular MU (and say the sheik ditto).
i think the MU is firmly even. sheik wins her matches in a general way based on the simple formula of SH FF fade AC fairs > react and WD back > react, ideally until you can grab them and expand your punishment options. rob isnt particularly weak to WD back because his mediocre approaches discourage the movement that WD back takes advantage of (unless rob does high boost > nair/fair without a FF which is awful and he can either boost low > fair or FF the nair to make it safe on block when sheik does WD back. tldr do it correctly and its not an issue). i think sheik and rob are both some of the best chars in the game and i put both of them firmly into top tier.
im def more comfortable with melee chars and some other brawl chars that arent rob like wario ike MK etc. that said ive spent a good amount of time looking into the rob MU. theres a few real issues-
- sheik cant edge guard rob that well if he recovers high with 2 boosts and saves the 3rd to preserve his aerial options, particularly air dodge
- sheiks punishment game on rob is extremely limited, often reduced to throw > hit > hit again if they DId the previous hit poorly, or the aforementioned bair fair nair in neutral while attempting to wall him out, since this seems to be the crux of the MU (what DF refers to as "meaty aerials" you can simply make it a point to finesse around them and be much more savvy in the MU)
- rob combos and edge guards sheik back much more reliably
- sheik struggles with a good CC game, and rob has a godly CC game with his weight into a REALLY good CC grab (robs grabs are better than sheiks in this MU and sheiks grabs are usually godlike).
- to play around CC and resetting aerials in neutral all the time, sheik has to rely on her grabs to make up the diff in punishment margin, but sheiks grab are way limited vs robs physics
- same goes for kills, sheiks best kill setups are throw/dtilt > upair but both tend to be pretty obvious to DI out of. sheik will still get you sometimes because of human error but its way less reliable for sheik than her usual grab > do whatever you want combo
the short version is that neutral is surprisingly even or sheik wins slightly, but rob wins both aspects of the punish game. at mid level when neutral is more important sheik might win, and frankly mid level players overrate sheik anyway because shes just really easy to use against softer players. at top level its much closer when the rob is better at making defensive plays that reduce sheiks ability to regain margin in the MU. for example if you watch DF vs both sethlon and dizzy from aftershock he gets hella shield grabbed because he doesnt FF his boost aerials which is just incredibly unsafe. had this been played out tighter he may have won either of those sets. top level players fundamentally offer the opponents much fewer chances to make comebacks and this is what im considering when i say the MU is even.