So the problem is, if she's not a fighter in the base game, she can't be DLC, because she's gonna be stuck as an Assist Trophy. So Box Theory = only Incineroar and Ken = Shantae not in base roster. Shantae not in base roster + WF NDA = Assist Trophy = no chance for DLC = Game Over. (Sorry if I sound pessimistic again)
She could be a regular trophy.
To be honest, I feel like relegating Shantae to an AT is squandering a massive amount of potential and though her avoiding the snow globe of death doesn't guarantee she'll be in as DLC, I do think it keeps her chances on the table. Personally, if I was in Sakurai's shoes and I had a character that ticks off all of my design wants in a newcomer, is heavily requested and is easier to acquire legally than even some 1st parties (Sakurai has shown he's willing to put the work in to do the legal negotiations for difficult characters but at the same time, it being a roadblock could indicate that he would appreciate a few easier choices), that's currently relevant and fits the mold of a business strategy... She ticks too many boxes.
A character like that, even if you can't squeeze them into the base roster, is a character you would rather want to keep on the table. Even if ultimately you decide against it, I feel like it would be smart to keep her in the pocket.
I get the feeling she did super well in America too and the US is a massive audience. My crackpot theory right now is that she was the #1 in America and Bandana Dee was #1 in Japan and they'll get a special direct together revealing these facts since we already "know" that Bayonetta was #1 in Europe. I know that Shantae usually doesn't beat Shovel Knight in fan-polling here in the US but if the rumors are true that she had a massive following in more casual areas of social media (Instagram, Tumblr, etc.) then that could account for the loss of votes on those fan polls (wherein she
still did really well). It's entirely possible she could have claimed the #1 spot.
Orrrr, she could be #442 for all I know. I'm just enjoying my crack theory for now.~