Ryker Mafia Is Over: Ryker Always Wins

[~ Gheb ~]

Circus, Ryker used the gambler as a town aligned role in touhou mafia - what it does is target a player and it has a 50% chance of either protecting or killing that player. The role that has to guess the next lynch is called "Warlock".

 

[Gova]

3. AM (1) Circus
4. The Account With No Name (1) J
7. Inferno ()
8. Circus ()
10. J ()
13. Gheb ()

Not voting - TAWNN, AM, Gheb, Inferno

With 6 playing, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is May 13th at 11:59PM CST (GMT-6).

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Did zapp ever actually claim? I don't see where you get the idea from that he's likely a cop.

 

[Circus]

Circus, Ryker used the gambler as a town aligned role in touhou mafia - what it does is target a player and it has a 50% chance of either protecting or killing that player. The role that has to guess the next lynch is called "Warlock".

Ah. Well that makes things even weirder. Would Indie Gambler be the same way? Protecting any player at all seems like it would impede an indie's wincon—If I were Glyph, I probably wouldn't have used that ability at all unless it was compulsory. I assume Glyph would have been trying to kill every player he targetted, but must have gotten a protect every time (or targeted the same player that scum did).

That also makes it weird for him to pick Zapp on N3. Obviously he'd be trying to kill him, but Zapp was looking like a pretty good NK choice (backed by the fact that mafia must have killed him). What if Glyph's ability had protected Zapp from scum's NK? Why would Glyph risk that?

Zapp being a Cop variant comes from hints that I thought I read in his play more than anything. I'll try finding examples of what I mean later.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Yeah, I don't think it's the same gambler role either. It makes no sense with the confirmed NA results [aka flips] in mind. I mentioned it because it's the only point of reference I could think of when it comes to the "gambler" but at this point it's safe to assume that his Night Actions were non-lethal.

The thing that really bugs me about AM's town busdriver claim is the fact that so far there's only one player left that he potentially could've messed up with his ability. The color affictionado, the back-up and an indy with a non-lethal ability all seem to be pretty much pointless to swtich actions with so why would there be a busdriver in the first place? If J and TAWNN actually have a special ability then Ninja or another passive ability is the only option left for them and those abilities can't be switched either.

I'm really leaning towards AM being the play right now.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

And that is all in case J / TAWNN are scum at all. A passive ability can't be switched and only few of them can be replaced by a back-up. The scenarios in which either of them could be scum are really unlikely and rare compared to the odds of AM being mafia busdriver.

 

[#HBC | J]

I just went to go research a game and ended up getting reminiscent in the old times of DGames because I thought the Gambler role was in it but it turns out it was the dag on Bookie role instead.

Yeah, with NAs, AM is the logical choice for toDay. The only one not left "cleared" is Inferno and I find it really weird that I am voting my strongest town-read toDay and my second strongest is the next "logical" choice in line.

Unvote
Vote: Aggressive Mediation

 

[#HBC | Ryker]

3. AM (2) Circus, J
4. The Account With No Name (0)
7. Inferno ()
8. Circus ()
10. J ()
13. Gheb ()

Not voting - TAWNN, AM, Gheb, Inferno

With 6 playing, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is May 13th at 11:59PM CST (GMT-6).

 

[#HBC | J]

Unvote

Mod's playing a houdini on us.

 

[Inferno3044]

Okay. So I'm fairly confident we can win this and right now AM seems like the play. If we're wrong on AM we would be in mylo right?

 

[#HBC | J]

It would be MyLo yes but we would most likely NL so we could get to LYLO and have more info.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

@ mod

Votecount is wrong. I'm currently not voting.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

It would be MyLo yes but we would most likely NL so we could get to LYLO and have more info.

And we'd lose both clears -.-
Let's not make a knee-jerk decision toDay and think everything through carefully. And if we thought everything through carefully ten times in a row then we will think this whole thing through an eleventh time if needed be. Up to this point town has been so successful and it'd be laughable if we'd lose the game because of Zen / dabuz being ******** and everybody else getting impatient now. We're not going to quicklynch AM toDay and we won't lynch anybody anytime soon toDay - we're not hoping for a plan B with slightly improved odds or "more info" in lylo. We're not going to lylo to begin with. We're using all our powers to end this toDay.

 

[#HBC | J]

Well then lemme ask ya a question, is someone scummier than AM in your mind after all the claims have been sorted? The only logical choice would be Inferno.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

To add a little bit to that I really feel like most people are slacking off right now or letting things slow down too much [TAWNN, Inferno, J] and this is actually the worst time to get lazy.

 

[Circus]

It would be MyLo yes but we would most likely NL so we could get to LYLO and have more info.

Bad idea. Scum would just kill Gheb. Mylo is going to be your last chance to find scum; treat it like lylo.

That is of course assuming we don't hit scum toDay.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

To add a little bit to that I really feel like most people are slacking off right now or letting things slow down too much [TAWNN, Inferno, J] and this is actually the worst time to get lazy.

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Well then lemme ask ya a question, is someone scummier than AM in your mind after all the claims have been sorted? The only logical choice would be Inferno.

Let's not count out options on a whim. While I consider Circus clear for the most part there's still a chance he's not telling the truth. And even though we assume him to tell the truth that does not exclude the possibility of you, Inferno or TAWNN being scum.

 

[#HBC | J]

Welp, I am out of cards to be fully honest. My strongest town-read is now the best candidate for toDay's lynch, my highest scum-read TAWNN is "cleared" due to NAs and its like "welp what do."

Gheb, that didn't answer my question. If not AM, who then would be your lynch choice out of supposedly Inferno/TAWNN?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Welp, I am out of cards to be fully honest. My strongest town-read is now the best candidate for toDay's lynch, my highest scum-read TAWNN is "cleared" due to NAs and its like "welp what do."

Double-check those reads with the new information in mind.

Gheb, that didn't answer my question. If not AM, who then would be your lynch choice out of supposedly Inferno/TAWNN?

AM > Inferno > you > TAWNN > Circus > me

 

[#HBC | J]

See AMScum just does NOT make sense because he double-bussed the **** out of Bugboy/Soup, it seems preposterous. I don't get how switching dabuz/Zapp resulted in AM becoming 100% AM is scum due to the flip because it does not make sense in my head. His posts consist of scum-hunting and looking exactly at how things are going. My heart truly does say that he is town and TAWNN is scum in this position and I am completely torn at this moment between which lynch I should go for. In the end, I am leaning towards the person I truly believe is scum over someone I am just grudgingly going along with. So I am voting to lynch the actual scummiest person in the game which is TAWNN.

Vote: The Account With No Name

Gheb, why do you find AM suspicious besides the NAs?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

See AMScum just does NOT make sense because he double-bussed the **** out of Bugboy/Soup, it seems preposterous.

Uh no, I would definitely bus the **** out of them if the situation ever occured. Laundry for sure would and Gorf's play has been influenced so much by Ryker, Laundry and me that I wouldn't even hesitate to think he'd do the same. If you feel like it's "preposterous" then you might just give them exactly what they want from you.

Gheb, why do you find AM suspicious besides the NAs?

I was planning to get into that anyway by reading back. Gotta wait for it a bit though.

 

[#HBC | J]

Thing is AM was the start pretty much of BOTH, he didn't just bus due to situations. I was the one who swung the Bugboy lynch D1 and then Me/AM/Zapp got onto Soup D2. I'll re-read but AM's play does not make sense for bussing both slots and also their play overall feels sincere scum-hunting.

 

[Inferno3044]

Gheb I think I have a way to convince you I'm town, but you have to make a deal to not vote me today.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Thing is AM was the start pretty much of BOTH, he didn't just bus due to situations. I was the one who swung the Bugboy lynch D1 and then Me/AM/Zapp got onto Soup D2. I'll re-read but AM's play does not make sense for bussing both slots and also their play overall feels sincere scum-hunting.

No, **** you, that was my lynch. >:r

Jokes aside, I hear I'm on the chopping block. Time to fix it.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Uh no, I would definitely bus the **** out of them if the situation ever occured. Laundry for sure would and Gorf's play has been influenced so much by Ryker, Laundry and me that I wouldn't even hesitate to think he'd do the same. If you feel like it's "preposterous" then you might just give them exactly what they want from you.

But can you prove that I did?

I was planning to get into that anyway by reading back. Gotta wait for it a bit though.

No, no, you can tell me now, I'm here and I wanna hear you're reasoning.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

Gorf ****ed up our actions. We switched ourselves and S-Tier n2 and I switched ourselves and Gheb n4. Both of those nights were trying to dodge the NK and I was trying to take out a player I didn't particularly trust.

 

[#HBC | J]

How in the world did he mess up your actions.....that poorly?

I mean that's not even close to what he originally said.

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

So, N1 and N2, GLG tracked J both times. This initially lead me to believe that J was probably not mafia since he apparently did nothing on either Night, which falls in line with his VT claim, and also proves that if he were mafia then he at least wasn't the one making kills on N1 (it would have had to be Soup). But N2 is a little tricky to analyze. I saw J do nothing, but since the kill on N2 was stopped, I'm not really sure what that means. Mafia wasn't roleblocked, so I think I should still have "seen" J visit Swiss/Gheb on N2 if he had been the last maf even if his action hadn't been fully resolved, but I don't know if Ryker would make the same choices as mod that I would.

Noted for down the road.

Now this part's weird. If this is true, then that means that the Night scum ended up killing Zapp, they were actually trying to kill Dabuz. That makes no ****ing sense. And it kind of tweaks my results from N3.

N3, I tracked Glyph and saw that he had visited Dabuz. This confirmed to me that Glyph was not mafia. At the time, since we still hadn't seen an explanation about the lack of death on N2, and already saw Zapp flip a role that I'm assuming corresponds to Cop, I was kind of thinking Glyph might have been a Jailer or something (couldn't be Doc, because what kind of Doc would protect Dabuz?). That's why I was really confused when Glyph decided to switch to Dabuz for the lynch. Gambler flip solves that little mystery.

However, if AM did what he claims to have done on N3, then that means that Glyph was trying to target Zapp that Night but got Dabuz instead, and Zapp died. Weird weird weird. I don't know exactly what Ryker's Gambler does, and there's no official page for it on MafiaScum or anything, but I'm under the impression that Gambler is a role that tries to guess the player that is going to get lynched the following Day. Wincon would be guessing correctly X number of times. Why would Glyph have targeted Zapp? Maybe people who have been in this game longer have a different perception of the slot than I do, but while I was rereading, Zapp definitely didn't look like a player that was going to be lynched any time soon. This Night looks really jacked up to me. Again, if AM is scum, maybe he actually stopped Switching after N1.

Nah, as Gheb later explained, Gambler's a role that has a 50/50 shot between two actions. I've seen a couple of variants and the actions it has can be switched up to fit a balance. Ryker's variant could just as easily have had a killshot and Glyfe pulled the NK that night but failed every night before, hence why there was only one NK. Or maybe scum failed and he got NKs where they didn't. I don't really know.

For the record, I'm assuming Glyfe had a killshot. Giving an indy something stupid like investigate/protect would be dumb and make their job that much harder.

This is why I went into D4 pulling for the dabunz lynch. Yes, we flipped them, and yes, Zapp got shot, but we still didn't know what type of indy we were messing with and that wasn't discounting the possibility that dabunz was indy himself. His play was atrocious regardless, especially after that case against him went up and I wanted his lynch. Scum, indy, either were possible.

And, for the record, we switched Zapp and Dabunz for the reasoning that I thought Zapp could've drawn an NK and I wanted Dabunz out of the way instead. Imagine my surprise when it happened the other way around.

Also worth noting that if we're right to think that Zapp was basically a Cop, then that means that this Town had a Cop, Tracker, and a Vigilante, with scum having a Back-Up player and a "Color Aficionado," which I assume does nothing substantive. Bus Driver would be a good way try to combat those roles in lieu of a Godfather/Roleblocker combo.

I doubt Zapp was investigative. I was thinking more protective. I don't really know regardless and you say the only thing you have on this is crumbs. Care to point them out?

 

[Aggressive Mediation]

How in the world did he mess up your actions.....that poorly?

I mean that's not even close to what he originally said.

Iunno how he got N2 screwed up. N4 was something I submitted quickly because Broto was bugging me for **** and I neglected to tell him why I did it. I didn't want to overthink it, so I went with the safe play.

 

[Circus]

Gorf ****ed up our actions. We switched ourselves and S-Tier n2 and I switched ourselves and Gheb n4. Both of those nights were trying to dodge the NK and I was trying to take out a player I didn't particularly trust.

You're telling me that not only are you capable of self-Switching, but that Gorf forgot that you guys ever even did it.

**** this slot being a hydra.

 

[#HBC | J]

Role note: I have seen/even implemented Bus Driver roles that can self-switch themselves with a target in order to get things. Its really fun for having a mafia Bus-driver also work as a Godfather that could switch itself with any townie in order to be cleared through investigation, ya know?

The amount of ".........." is still sinking in, but Circus, say AM isn't on the table, who is your candidate for lynching off scumminess and not NAs?

 

[Circus]

@J: Not answering that because AM is definitely scum. We got him.

This is why I went into D4 pulling for the dabunz lynch. Yes, we flipped them, and yes, Zapp got shot, but we still didn't know what type of indy we were messing with and that wasn't discounting the possibility that dabunz was indy himself. His play was atrocious regardless, especially after that case against him went up and I wanted his lynch. Scum, indy, either were possible.

And, for the record, we switched Zapp and Dabunz for the reasoning that I thought Zapp could've drawn an NK and I wanted Dabunz out of the way instead. Imagine my surprise when it happened the other way around.

No. Absolute bull****. You actually brought up a point that I hadn't even thought of, and I'm about to dig your grave with it.

For starters, I flat-out don't believe that scum targeted Dabuz on N3 and lucked into hitting Zapp instead because you managed to switch them. Not only was Dabuz not a threat to scum at all, but he had already claimed VT. Even if scum knew there was a Bus Driver in the game, they wouldn't have picked Dabuz, hoping that the Bus Driver would pick Dabuz to switch with someone better. That did not happen. Scum would have picked someone that they actually wanted gone, but who would be less likely to be picked to keep around from town's perspective. Dabuz was literally one of the worst candidates for scum's shot in the whole game. The odds of them picking him and then just happening to shifted to another, much better choice, are unreal.

But more important than that, you just pointed out that, thanks to the N3 situation, you were basically given mod confirmation that Dabuz was DEFINITELY not mafia. But this was your first post of D4, after Zapp flipped:

vote: Dabunz

Still don't see TAWNN on a scumteam with Spidey/Soup, Dabunz definitely fits right into the equation though. Standing by my case earlier, the guy did chainsaw the **** outta Soup and still remained tentative when attacking Spidey.

That's you, not only voting Dabuz, but making the case that he makes the most sense as Spidey's and Soup's scumbuddy, even though you know based on Night results that he cannot possibly be that. If you had actually switched Dabuz with Zapp that Night, then you would have know, for a fact, that Dabuz could not possibly be scum, because he would have had to try to shoot himself in order to wind up with that result.

There goes your little "I still suspected him because he might have been indy" excuse. That was a straight up lie.

You are toast. Enjoy your lynch.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Yeh, I blew it. Something so small too, but that ****ing claim situation was a nightmare. GG guys, well-played.

 

[Circus]

Successful town is successful.

Good game, Washed. Your slot was one of my towniest reads until suddenly it wasn't.

 

[Inferno3044]

Vote: Aggressive Mediation

I hate you WL. I seriously can't recall a game you've played with me in which you were town and yet I'm consistently fooled. I have a lot of respect for you, but the mass claim really got you. Also I'm taking credit because I brought up the idea to mass claim

 

[Inferno3044]

inb42ndindy

 

[Circus]

That awkward moment when you have to wait for two more people to show up and end a game that's already over.

inb42ndindy

Don't you even joke like that.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Successful town is successful.

Good game, Washed. Your slot was one of my towniest reads until suddenly it wasn't.

Yeh, I figured I could ride it until endgame. The two things I didn't want to happen (someone other than Gheb being Indy and there being a tracker instead of a cop) actually did happen and it ****ed me up so far that there really was no rebounding. My one flaw was the dabuz lynch. I should've pushed Gheb but failed.

 

[#HBC | Laundry]

Also, your face when you caught scum because of their scumbag teammate.