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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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Morbi

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There are 3 big contenders.
Toad, Bowser Jr, and Paper Mario.
I really want Paper Mario in.
I just find Paper Mario to be the most unlikely of the bunch. The Dr. Mario argument doesn't really work because Sakurai wanted some last minute clones. We haven't really seen a clone character with a different move-set as of yet. Roy is just Marth but slower. Pichu is Pikachu but weaker. So if we did get Paper Mario, he would need to draw from a different move pool to be relevant and well-received. However, I don't see them denying the sheer popularity of Toad or the relevance of Waluigi for Paper Mario. I think that Bowser Jr. has a good chance. I am just a little worried that he is over-due.
 

Bajef8

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I hate Waluigi as a character anyway and seriously doubt he'll ever make anything but AT. He's never once been featured in a main branch game for Mario or Warioware. His inception was literally because Nintendo needed a doubles partner for Wario in Mario Tennis. Seriously what a cheap knock off addition of a character. "Hmmmm, well we have Wario. We need evil Luigi. Let's just name him Waluigi." -___-

He literally only shows up cuz Wario is like, "Yo dawg. I need that mean tennis swing you got there." And Waluigi is like, "YES! I get to show up for something regardless of how minor a role it is!"
 

Morbi

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Yeah I'm still not seeing why people think it's sound logic to say Toad being Peach's moveset doesn't deconfirm.

I'd say the top contenders are Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario. But I think Jr. will triumph because it makes the most sense.

Paper Mario is admittedly a cool idea, but that's why people want him. Cuz he'd be a neat idea. Jr. just makes the most sense, he's the next biggest Mario character left.
I am not giving up on Toad for the same reason I never gave up on Toon Link. The appearance of the character in the background of a stage means nothing. We have had similar appearances from the likes of Game and Watch (Flatzone) and Donkey Kong (75 M). Spirit Tracks Link and Wind Waker Link are different people in the same way that no two Toad's are the same. Speculation would leave one to believe that the Toad Peach has hidden up her snatch is not the iconic Toad present in almost every Mario Party/Kart game. Not to mention Sakurai stated that the move-set was subject to change. So we don't even know if the counter Toad is going to be omitted or not. Nothing is confirmed until Sakurai or a relevant Sora Ltd. representative confirms it. So a picture of Peach holding Toad is irrelevant to any rational basis. That is why it is sound logic to say that Toad still has a chance.
 

Metal Overlord

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Really? How? The Paper Mario series is still going strong, with a recent game under its belt (not that recency would affect PM's chances).
I just feel like if Sakurai really wanted a second Mario in Smash, he would have either just kept Dr. Mario or replaced Doc with Paper Mario already (like what happened with Young and Toon Link)
 

Arcadenik

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I sincerely hope Toad is playable in SSB4. He is long overdue... moreso than Bowser Jr.... and I believe Toad still has a chance to be playable in SSB4 despite Peach's Neutral Special move. Sakurai himself said Peach's moveset is not finalized and that her moveset "may be refreshed" by the time SSB4's development ends. Sakurai could have saved Peach's reveal on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... but instead she is revealed on September... way too early. I have a feeling in my gut that something might happen on November... maybe Toad may be revealed on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... I don't know... this is Sakurai we are talking about... he loves playing mind games with fans and speculators alike... he showed the other Toon Link on the Spirit Tracks stage months before the playable Toon Link was confirmed... he showed the Pyrosphere stage and alluded to Ridley... even purposefully showed us what is inside one of the holes after everyone speculated about holes... and now telling us that Peach might get a new moveset after showing us Toad as part of her moveset.
 

Morbi

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I sincerely hope Toad is playable in SSB4. He is long overdue... moreso than Bowser Jr.... and I believe Toad still has a chance to be playable in SSB4 despite Peach's Neutral Special move. Sakurai himself said Peach's moveset is not finalized and that her moveset "may be refreshed" by the time SSB4's development ends. Sakurai could have saved Peach's reveal on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... but instead she is revealed on September... way too early. I have a feeling in my gut that something might happen on November... maybe Toad may be revealed on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... I don't know... this is Sakurai we are talking about... he loves playing mind games with fans and speculators alike... he showed the other Toon Link on the Spirit Tracks stage months before the playable Toon Link was confirmed... he showed the Pyrosphere stage and alluded to Ridley... even purposefully showed us what is inside one of the holes after everyone speculated about holes... and now telling us that Peach might get a new moveset after showing us Toad as part of her moveset.
Not only that... but say Peach still has the Toad dspecial. How does that have any correlation to Toad being included as a character anyways? That is such an arbitrary reason. I am hoping that he is revealed when Super Mario 3D World comes out. I will be 2 for 2. I got Toon Link right, now it is time to get the Toad baby right!
 

Bajef8

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I am not giving up on Toad for the same reason I never gave up on Toon Link. The appearance of the character in the background of a stage means nothing. We have had similar appearances from the likes of Game and Watch (Flatzone) and Donkey Kong (75 M). Spirit Tracks Link and Wind Waker Link are different people in the same way that no two Toad's are the same. Speculation would leave one to believe that the Toad Peach has hidden up her snatch is not the iconic Toad present in almost every Mario Party/Kart game. Not to mention Sakurai stated that the move-set was subject to change. So we don't even know if the counter Toad is going to be omitted or not. Nothing is confirmed until Sakurai or a relevant Sora Ltd. representative confirms it. So a picture of Peach holding Toad is irrelevant to any rational basis. That is why it is sound logic to say that Toad still has a chance.
Well the picture is relevant seeing as it's the only picture of Toad we have in Smash 4. People take that Mii-verse quote too seriously and try to use backwards logic to justify Toad having a chance. That is a common disclaimer for any game under development. Sakurai said the exact same thing when presenting Mario VS Mega Man at E3. Its meaning usually refers to the fact that the visuals and power of each move aren't finished yet, not that they'll decide to completely change something last minute.

The Toon Link thing doesn't work either. Toon Link is a returning vet. Toad is a returning MOVE. The Link argument you brought up about WW and Spirit Tracks Link is also flawed. You can't say well, it's because WW Link got repped, not ST Link. Toon Link represents ALL young/cel-shaded/kid Links just as regular Link reps ALL adult Links form previous games. Smash doesn't have one specific Zelda series' Link. Yes they use the artwork of a specific Link, but that by no means means he's repping 1 specific Link. He's repping the series protagonist Link all-together, not 1 Link. Just as Toon Link is repping the fact that the Zelda franchise always differentiates an Adult/Child Link. There's 2 Links repped because they are 2 important versions of Link throughout his series. It just so happens that this cartoon style has become synonymous with the games featuring Child Link.

Toad is a species just as Yoshi is. Yoshi is just a lot more iconic to Mario itself, has his own series, and actively helps Mario instead of just standing there going, "Oh, Bowser got Peach again." "Here's a star for no reason." Etc.... Well until recently I guess since he's popped into the platformers again. However once again, Bowser Jr. trumps Toad in importance and appearances. Sure Toad has been around longer, but he doesn't really take active roles in most games, whereas Bowser Jr. has appeared in almost every major game since his debut and is a primary antagonist w/ Bowser in each one.

Also clearly Sakurai doesn't view Toad as important since he made him a meat shield to Peach in all of her Smash appearances.
 

Morbi

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Well the picture is relevant seeing as it's the only picture of Toad we have in Smash 4. People take that Mii-verse quote too seriously and try to use backwards logic to justify Toad having a chance. That is a common disclaimer for any game under development. Sakurai said the exact same thing when presenting Mario VS Mega Man at E3. It's meaning usually refers to the fact that the visuals and power of each move aren't finished yet, not that they'll decide to completely change something last minute.

The Toon Link thing doesn't work either. Toon Link is a returning vet. Toad is a returning MOVE. The Link argument you brought up about WW and Spirit Tracks Link is also flawed. You can't say well, it's because WW Link got repped, not ST Link. Toon Link represents ALL young/cel-shaded/kid Links just as regular Link reps ALL adult Links form previous games. Smash doesn't have one specific Zelda series' Link. Yes they use the artwork of a specific Link, but that by no means means he's repping 1 specific Link. He's repping the series protagonist Link all-together, not 1 Link. Just as Toon Link is repping the fact that the Zelda franchise always differentiates an Adult/Child Link. There's 2 Links repped because they are 2 important versions of Link throughout his series. It just so happens that this cartoon style has become synonymous with the games featuring Child Link.

Toad is a species just as Yoshi is. Yoshi is just a lot more iconic to Mario itself, has his own series, and actively helps Mario instead of just standing there going, "Oh, Bowser got Peach again." "Here's a star for no reason." Etc.... Well until recently I guess since he's popped into the platformers again. However once again, Bowser Jr. trumps Toad in importance and appearances. Sure Toad has been around longer, but he doesn't really take active roles in most games, whereas Bowser Jr. has appeared in almost every major game since his debut and is a primary antagonist w/ Bowser in each one.
I am not necessarily arguing that he is a given. I am arguing that the picture has no relevance to his inclusion at all. The notion that the two Toads could very well be different is more than enough. The Toad Peach pulls out of her snatch is a generic Toad. The Toad that might be playable will be the one from Super Mario 3D. The Toad that might be playable will be the one from EVERY Mario Party and EVERY Mario Kart. That is my premise.

The Toon Link thing was just to point out the similarities between the situations. It wasn't evidence.
 

Arcadenik

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Not only that... but say Peach still has the Toad dspecial. How does that have any correlation to Toad being included as a character anyways? That is such an arbitrary reason. I am hoping that he is revealed when Super Mario 3D World comes out. I will be 2 for 2. I got Toon Link right, now it is time to get the Toad baby right!
I know!! It is like Sakurai is throwing our flawed logic back at us!

People reasoned that Toon Link was cut because of the Spirit Tracks stage... Sakurai disproved that reasoning as a logical fallacy.

People reasoned that Ridley is inside the holes and comes out as a stage hazard in the Pyrosphere stage... Sakurai partially disproved that reasoning by showing us what is inside the holes (they are empty).

People reasoned that as long as Peach still has Toad as her Neutral Special move, Toad would never be playable... what if Sakurai disproves this reasoning too?
 

FinalStarmen

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I would love it if both Toad and Waddle Dee are playable in SSB4!!! Imagine that... the four heroes of Kirby's Return to Dream Land and the four heroes of Super Mario 3D World (Super Mario Bros. 2 for MUH NOSTALGIA) all in SSB4... it sounds too good to be true!!!

Considering how iconic and important Toad is to the Mario universe... it is quite criminally offensive Toad may not even be included on the main roster, or even the fact he has yet to already do so.

I just find Paper Mario to be the most unlikely of the bunch. The Dr. Mario argument doesn't really work because Sakurai wanted some last minute clones. We haven't really seen a clone character with a different move-set as of yet. Roy is just Marth but slower. Pichu is Pikachu but weaker. So if we did get Paper Mario, he would need to draw from a different move pool to be relevant and well-received. However, I don't see them denying the sheer popularity of Toad or the relevance of Waluigi for Paper Mario. I think that Bowser Jr. has a good chance. I am just a little worried that he is over-due.

Are you actually, wait just a moment... wait just a moment, are you... are you actually saying that Waluigi is more relevant than Paper Mario to a Super Smash Brothers game? Are you actually comparing a side-character from several spin-off series to a major character from a major series? It is as asinine as it sounds.

I will not deny Waluigi has a number of factors favorable to his inclusion, yet they are far and few in between, especially in comparison to his unfavorable factors. Has Sakurai ever included a playable character in the main game roster, whose only sole contribution is an inconsequentially minor role as a secondary/tertiary supporting character, within mostly-side Mario games. All Waluigi is... is Wario's partner-in-crime in the Kart, Sports, and Party series. That's that.

EDIT: Must you like every status, MorbidAltruism?
 

Bajef8

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I am not necessarily arguing that he is a given. I am arguing that the picture has no relevance to his inclusion at all. The notion that the two Toads could very well be different is more than enough. The Toad Peach pulls out of her snatch is a generic Toad. The Toad that might be playable will be the one from Super Mario 3D. The Toad that might be playable will be the one from EVERY Mario Party and EVERY Mario Kart. That is my premise.

The Toon Link thing was just to point out the similarities between the situations. It wasn't evidence.
The similarities aren't even very similar though. Toon Link reps all Child Links. You're suggesting a Blue Toad reps all the Toads. Even though Peach's B move is in fact, that iconic Toad you refer to when speaking about Mario Party/Kart (which is an irrelevant argument seeing as those are party and spin-off games).

They obviously went with a Blue Toad because it differentiates him color-wise from the rest of the group. Red/regular Toad, Mario is Red. Look at that other Wii platformer with 2 Toads. Blue and Yellow Toad because Mario and Luigi represent Red and Green. The Toads get thrown in as an easy 4th character and just give him whatever color isn't there.
 

ChronoBound

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I have a feeling that if Toad does end up playable in Smash 4 it will be Blue Toad if for nothing else but to tie him in with Super Mario 3D World (which is the highest profile game to be released for the Wii U so far in its life).
 

TumblrFamous

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I sincerely hope Toad is playable in SSB4. He is long overdue... moreso than Bowser Jr.... and I believe Toad still has a chance to be playable in SSB4 despite Peach's Neutral Special move. Sakurai himself said Peach's moveset is not finalized and that her moveset "may be refreshed" by the time SSB4's development ends. Sakurai could have saved Peach's reveal on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... but instead she is revealed on September... way too early. I have a feeling in my gut that something might happen on November... maybe Toad may be revealed on November when Super Mario 3D World comes out... I don't know... this is Sakurai we are talking about... he loves playing mind games with fans and speculators alike... he showed the other Toon Link on the Spirit Tracks stage months before the playable Toon Link was confirmed... he showed the Pyrosphere stage and alluded to Ridley... even purposefully showed us what is inside one of the holes after everyone speculated about holes... and now telling us that Peach might get a new moveset after showing us Toad as part of her moveset.
That's what I feel. But I find it unlikely. Some of Peach's moves shown were a little gritty on the site. He might have been referring to those.
 

Bajef8

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Main, iconic Toad

Supporting Toads


Note that iconic Toad has the red dots and blue jacket. And as you have brought up Morbid, that is the Toad in the Party/Kart series. That Toad is not the one in any of the recent platforming appearances Toad has had. That platforming role is assigned to one of the minor ones above whom are color-coded. Note once more, iconic Toad is the one Peach holds in that screenshot.

There is no smart logic behind saying he'll be in.
 

ChronoBound

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New Super Mario Bros. Wii is the second highest selling home console game of all time in Japan.

I am not so sure we can say Yellow Toad and Blue Toad are not iconic. I think especially after Super Mario 3D World, it may end up that Blue Toad becomes "The Toad".
 

Smashoperatingbuddy123

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I know!! It is like Sakurai is throwing our flawed logic back at

People reasoned that Ridley is inside the holes and comes out as a stage hazard in the Pyrosphere stage... Sakurai partially disproved that reasoning by showing us what is inside the holes (they are empty).
I want this to comence the skepticals but they are never going to surrender
 

Bajef8

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New Super Mario Bros. Wii is the second highest selling home console game of all time in Japan.

I am not so sure we can say Yellow Toad and Blue Toad are not iconic. I think especially after Super Mario 3D World, it may end up that Blue Toad becomes "The Toad".
-____- red dot blue jacket Toad is THE Toad. Just because Yellow/Blue Toad appeared in a high selling Mario =/= those Toads are iconic by any means at all. The main red dot blue jacket Toad is the iconic Toad, the one people know.
 

Morbi

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The similarities aren't even very similar though. Toon Link reps all Child Links. You're suggesting a Blue Toad reps all the Toads. Even though Peach's B move is in fact, that iconic Toad you refer to when speaking about Mario Party/Kart (which is an irrelevant argument seeing as those are party and spin-off games).

They obviously went with a Blue Toad because it differentiates him color-wise from the rest of the group. Red/regular Toad, Mario is Red. Look at that other Wii platformer with 2 Toads. Blue and Yellow Toad because Mario and Luigi represent Red and Green. The Toads get thrown in as an easy 4th character and just give him whatever color isn't there.
I was alluding to the essence of Toad as a main character. Not necessarily his color. Just the mere notion that he is important to the series. "Toad" Toad not just Toad.
 

Curious Villager

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Oh well, whether Toad's default colour would be red or blue. He practically will wear the other colour anyway as a colour swap. Especially for Team Battles. :rolleyes:
 

Bajef8

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I was alluding to the essence of Toad as a main character. Not necessarily his color. Just the mere notion that he is important to the series. "Toad" Toad not just Toad.
If Toad would be in (which I'm saying won't happen, gotta stick to my guns just like w/ Toon Link and Jiggs) they'd have iconic red dot blue jacket Toad, not random color-swap-to-make-sure-I'm-a-different-color-than-Mario-Luigi-Peach Toad.

And guess what? That iconic Toad is Peach's move, not one of those cheap imitation Toads. Even if you wanna get nitpicky with the whole "Toon Link was a background" argument, I pose this question. Was the iconic green, pointy hat Toon Link standing in the background? Or was a Link in a conductor's outfit standing there? Is iconic Toad Peach's move and not one of the color swap Toads? Yes? By the logic of the "Toon Link background argument," Nuff said.
 

Arcadenik

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I have a feeling that if Toad does end up playable in Smash 4 it will be Blue Toad if for nothing else but to tie him in with Super Mario 3D World (which is the highest profile game to be released for the Wii U so far in its life).
I gathered that... and adding to the confusion, THE Toad (red spots, blue vest) is playable in Super Mario 3D World too.



Even the Japanese website for Super Mario 3D World seems to imply that the Blue Toad is THE Toad. It says "Kinopio", not "Ao Kinopio"

His name in Japanese is like this... キノピオ. The website says キノピオ, not あおキノピオ like the Japanese website for New Super Mario Bros. Wii said.

Maybe you are correct... that the playable Toad will be Blue Toad but he would still be named キノピオ (Kinopio aka THE Toad)...
 

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Toad should be red-spotted, it is the most iconic out of all colored Toads. I personally don't find Toad that exciting to play as though, despite being my favorite Mario character.
 

Bajef8

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This. Toad's color is irrelevant. Just the mere notion that it is Toad should be enough for most fans.
No! This logic is so off...by that statement, fans wouldn't care if the roster was Link and Toon Link in conductor's outfit -___-
I gathered that... and adding to the confusion, THE Toad (red spots, blue vest) is playable in Super Mario 3D World too.



Even the Japanese website for Super Mario 3D World seems to imply that the Blue Toad is THE Toad. It says "Kinopio", not "Ao Kinopio"

His name in Japanese is like this... キノピオ. The website says キノピオ, not あおキノピオ like the Japanese website for New Super Mario Bros. Wii said.

Maybe you are correct... that the playable Toad will be Blue Toad but he would still be named キノピオ (Kinopio aka THE Toad)...
The iconic Toad isn't made playable because Toad is thrown in as an easy addition for a 3rd or 4th platforming character. They change his color palette so he doesn't conflict with important characters visually IE Mario, Luigi, or Peach.
 

TumblrFamous

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Oh well, whether Toad's default colour would be red or blue. He practically will wear the other colour anyway as a colour swap. Especially for Team Battles. :rolleyes:
That's the thing. It'd be weird when Toad changes his colors.

I'm sure it would work, but it's odd. Toad, the one we know, is Red dots and Blue jacket. This one is plain blue, so I don't really know.
 

Arcadenik

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Eh? Toad looks nothing like Mario, Luigi, and Peach. I believe the game originally had the two Toads from New Super Mario Bros. games but they simply replaced Yellow Toad with Peach to give the game some gameplay variety.
 

Bajef8

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Seriously, if they put Toad in (which they won't) it would be his most iconic form/color/look whatever you wanna call it. Meaning red dot blue jacket Toad. But seeing as he is Peach's move, not happening. If she was holding one of those cheap color swap Toads, then I'd say we have a different story.

EDIT: Then again Sakurai may be trolling me and the whole moves aren't finalized thing could just mean he changes Peach's B-move Toad to Blue Toad and then reveals regular Toad :troll:
 

Curious Villager

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That's the thing. It'd be weird when Toad changes his colors.

I'm sure it would work, but it's odd. Toad, the one we know, is Red dots and Blue jacket. This one is plain blue, so I don't really know.
Why would it be weird? We have seen plenty of similar coloured Toads throughout the Mario franchise. I'm not sure if this would be anything out of the ordinary but I guess that's just my opinion. Just as I didn't find it weird to have both Wind Waker Link and Spirit Tracks Link coexisting... :/ Unless I didn't get what you meant?
 

Morbi

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No! This logic is so off...by that statement, fans wouldn't care if the roster was Link and Toon Link in conductor's outfit -___-


The iconic Toad isn't made playable because Toad is thrown in as an easy addition to a 3rd or 4th platforming character. They change his color palette so he doesn't conflict with important characters visually IE Mario, Luigi, or Peach.
All Toads are iconic. Sakurai will most likely pick Red Toad as the default. Name it TOAD. The iconic yellow or green or whatever Toad will be represented through a pallet swap. What has come over you. ONE picture of Peaches old move and you blatantly deny the POSSIBILITY of Toad? Really? I thought you were a little more intelligent than that. One little picture has NO relevance whatsoever. No relevance to my perspective. No relevance to the opposite perspective. It is just a picture. WAIT until OFFICIAL confirmation from Sora Ltd. before you start throwing around arbitrary statements.

We are both using logic. There is no right or wrong here. So give it a rest. Toad IS the most likely Mario rep in my opinion. You can think it is Bowser Jr. all you want.
 

Bajef8

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Just as I didn't find it weird to have both Wind Waker Link and Spirit Tracks Link coexisting... :/
Yaaarg why doesn't anyone get the whole Link thing? The playable character Toon Link can be WW, ST, PH, whoever kid Link. He represents all of them, just as regular Link reps, OoT, TP, SS, etc...
 

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Ya know...I actually can't think of a more worldly recognised Nintendo character that currently hasn't been playable in Smash, than Toad.

Yeah, I'm obviously biased but I mean seriously; try and name one. Someone everyone recognises?

Dixie Kong and Meowth are arguably the only others I can think of that compete with that level of fame; Dixie because she's one of the few strong, non sexualised female protagonists and DK was huge and Meowth because at one point the Pokemon franchise conquered the world, and the anime was a huge part of that.

Any others?
 

BluePikmin11

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Ya know...I actually can't think of a more worldly recognised Nintendo character that currently hasn't been playable in Smash, than Toad.

Yeah, I'm obviously biased but I mean seriously; try and name one. Someone everyone recognises?

Dixie Kong and Meowth are arguably the only others I can think of that compete with that level of fame; Dixie because she's one of the few strong, non sexualised female protagonists and DK was huge and Meowth because at one point the Pokemon franchise conquered the world, and the anime was a huge part of that.

Any others?
Miis?
 
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