Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[Bajef8]

I'd like to point out that Sakurai NEVER said that he picks the "newest" Pokémon characters, and that he DID in fact CUT OUT A PREVIOUS SMASH POKEMON THAT REALLY HAD NO REASON TO BE CUT OTHERWISE.

I'd also like to point out that I NEVER SAID JIGGLYPUFF WAS GOING TO BE CUT NOR THAT IT DOESN'T HOLD SOME "RIGHT" TO RETURN; JUST THAT IT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVEL OF SAFETY THAT PEOPLE CLAIM IT TO BE.

So I suggest if you're going to step into the lion's den while the lion's been particularly riled up, you get your facts straight first.

Facts? In a debate about uncertainty? Seriously? It's all a matter of opinion, there's no 100% fact at all in regards to how cuts, character choice, or anything about Smash for that matter. Jigglypuff is an uncertainty that no one agrees on, with no point in debate anyway. I say she deserves to be in for a numerous amount of reasons, not that SHE IS going to be in. No where have i ever argued otherwise. Do I think she'll make it? Duh. Does that mean I'm saying it's a fact she will be? Not at all.

Meanwhile you casually act like she has no right, or "right" as you would say like she doesn't even have one. She's a part of Smash, she's important to Smash, definitely not to Pokemon anymore. Sorry that you seem to disagree.

Also way to not quote the part of my last post regarding why Mewtwo MAY HAVE BEEN cut. And you know what, he DIDN'T cut her out of Brawl, so I'm not seeing some pattern to indicate she is going, or in some high danger that you view her being.

"But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things."

You can assume that's his process for adding the NEW reps, not just starting over every game in the series. Above is a direct quote from the article as well. She is unique, she fits into Smash just find seeing as she's been part of it since the beginning, and she has history with the series as whole. Don't discredit her so easily.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

When do you all think we will get another newcomer?

Before the end of the year? Or do we wait till 2014?

 

[N3ON]

I still stand by those choices though, or if it has to be a mixed Isaac that is young adult.

But I do see where you are coming from, and understand your opinion.

If Sakurai/Camelot wants to represent DD, it's going to be Matthew, if they want to represent GS as a whole, or want to choose the most popular and prolific character, it's going to be teenage Isaac. There really aren't any other options, including Adult Isaac. The most he'll be is an alt. outfit.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

If Sakurai/Camelot wants to represent DD, it's going to be Matthew, if they want to represent GS as a whole, or want to choose the most popular and prolific character, it's going to be teenage Isaac. There really aren't any other options, including Adult Isaac. The most he'll be is an alt. outfit.

I just choose Adult Isaac because they tend to go for whatever is the most recent look at the time, from what is possible to grab and not too late. Could Teenage Isaac be there? Sure, but other choices are there.

However they might just go with Matthew. No one knows but Sakurai or Camelot.

 

[N3ON]

I just choose Adult Isaac because they tend to go for whatever is the most recent look at the time, from what is possible to grab and not to late. Could Teenage Isaac be there? Sure, but it is not a guaranteed look.

However they might just go with Matthew. No one knows but Sakurai.

That would be a lot more valid if Adult Isaac wasn't so drastically different from the most iconic appearance of Isaac's, which is fundamentally the face of the series. It's pretty unlikely Sakurai is going to choose a far-less major appearance, literally that of an NPC, to represent a series with. You are being too rigid in what you believe Sakurai's ideology is, as well as assuming Sakurai himself will be rigid in his ideology. "Well, this is his iconic, popular appearance, but darn, I need to include his lesser-known, noticeably different, most recent appearance because that's what I do!"

The characters so far have gotten their most recent appearance either because it was also a major important appearance of theirs, or because their most recent appearance wasn't drastically different to their most well-known or typical appearance. Do you mean to say if hypothetically Yarn Yoshi was the most recent game with Yoshi in it when Sakurai was determining the roster, he'd go with that version? Because that's pretty ridiculous, and it's the same principle here.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

That would be a lot more valid if Adult Isaac wasn't so drastically different from the most iconic appearance of Isaac's, which is fundamentally the face of the series. It's pretty unlikely Sakurai is going to choose a far-less major appearance, literally that of an NPC, to represent a series with. You are being too rigid in what you believe Sakurai's ideology is, as well as assuming Sakurai himself will be rigid in his ideology. "Well, this is his iconic, popular appearance, but darn, I need to include his lesser-known, noticeably different, most recent because that's what I do!"

The characters so far have gotten their most recent appearance either because it was also a major important appearance of theirs, or because their most recent appearance wasn't drastically different to their most well-known or typical appearance. Do you mean to say if hypothetically Yarn Yoshi was the most recent game with Yoshi in it when Sakurai was determining the roster, he'd go with that version? Because that's pretty ridiculous, and it's the same principle here.

I guess you are right with that, but it could possibly be different for certain characters (don't know though as predicting this stuff is almost impossible). And yeah, I may be going by what I see in past games a little too much. It is probably just because it is something I can go off of.

Matthew is probably coming back on my roster then, or a younger Isaac in some sense. Don't know, the roster is still changing (and my official 2013 is close but not done yet).

 

[N3ON]

I guess you are right with that, but it could possibly be different for certain characters (don't know though as predicting this stuff is almost impossible). And yeah, I may be going by what I see in past games a little too much. It is probably just because it is something I can go off of.

Matthew is probably coming back on my roster then, or a younger Isaac in some sense. Don't know, the roster is still changing (and my official 2013 is close but not done yet).

Well... you could always go with what's generally thought of as "likely" instead of something that technically "could" happen when making predictions as to what the outcome of the roster will be... crazy, I know. No mentality is foolproof, but at least there's more sound reasoning with ones other than yours.

And I still say you're putting waaaay too much importance on recency. Think about it, when in Smash up until this point has a series been introduced without its most popular, most well known character?

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Well... you could always go with what's generally thought of as "likely" instead of something that technically "could" happen when making predictions... crazy, I know.

And I still say you're putting waaaay too much importance on recency. Think about it, when in Smash up until this point has a series been introduced without its most popular, most well known character?

Not often, but still everything is up to Sakurai.

Also nothing is very "likely" in Smash Bros, as often as anyone (including myself) should know. Characters requested for, among other stuff, doesn't always get in.

Plus I only go off of recency, in at least certain points, because it appears that that is kind of included in each game (namely past gen stuff). Like I said, I go off what I see.

 

[N3ON]

Not often, but still everything is up to Sakurai.

Yes, but as unpredictable as he is, there is still a precedent he tends to follow on some things, such as series inclusion and how he portrays characters. And your mentality is going against it on the basis of "I dunno, only Sakurai does. It's not impossible, therefore I find it the most likely outcome".

Also nothing is very "likely" in Smash Bros, as often as anyone (including myself) should know. Characters requested for, among other stuff, doesn't always get in.

Ofc there are varying degrees of likelihood in Smash Bros. prediction. Does that mean even the most likely things will definitely happen? No, but the fact that some things are likelier than others are undeniable. Is it very likely we get a Galaxy stage? Yes. Is it very likely we get another retro character? Yes. Is it very likely we get another Mario character? No, but it's not unlikely.

Sure nothing is for certain, and even the things that seem the most likely don't always pan out, look at Ridley's probable fate, but that doesn't mean there isn't a "likely" view and an "unlikely" view.

Plus I only go off of recency, in at least certain points, because it appears that that is kind of included in each game (namely past gen stuff). Like I said, I go off what I see.

Yes, but which is more important in representing a series? The most recent character getting in, or the most well known character getting in? And again I ask you, when has a series ever been included without its most well known character?

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

I'm pretty sure if we got a Golden Sun character it would be Isaac. We've always gotten the most iconic protagonist for each series. Mother = Ness. Fire Emblem = Marth. Pikmin = Olimar. Pokemon = Red. Isaac is without a doubt the most iconic protagonist of the series.

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Yes, but as unpredictable as he is, there is still a precedent he tends to follow on some things, such as series inclusion and how he portrays characters. And your mentality is going against it on the basis of "I dunno, only Sakurai does. It's not impossible, therefore I find it the most likely outcome".


Ofc there are varying degrees of likelihood in Smash Bros. prediction. Does that mean even the most likely things will definitely happen? No, but the fact that some things are likelier than others are undeniable. Is it very likely we get a Galaxy stage? Yes. Is it very likely we get another retro character? Yes. Is it very likely we get another Mario character? No, but it's not unlikely.

Sure nothing is for certain, and even the things that seem the most likely don't always pan out, look at Ridley's probable fate, but that doesn't mean there isn't a "likely" view and an "unlikely" view.



Yes, but which is more important in representing a series? The most recent character getting in, or the most well known character getting in? And again I ask you, when has a series ever been included without its most well known character?

1. True, I agree
2. A lot of that stuff is likely, yes. Such as a Mario Galaxy stage, more Retro characters, etc. I agree. Both Likely and Unlikely have categories, and then there are stuff that is practically Neutral.
3. That varies on the series I guess. Lets take Golden Sun vs Sin & Punishment. Isaac is the clear lead in most of the Golden Suns up to this point (Matthew is probably going to take that spot in the future). Being in the most games makes him more likely, as is his teen appearance. When it comes to Sin & Punishment, both Saki and Isa only have one game each (and neither really have any precedent over the other). The difference here is terms of importance each lead of both series has against each other. Isaac outways Matthew, but the S&P debacle isn't as clear. Matthew could happen, but Isaac is more likely. Neither Saki or Isa have anything really over the other (especially for as minor a franchise as it is). The S&P rep "could" go the way of Ninten vs Ness.....or it could not. Also they practically never go for a franchise without the well-known character, this is more noticeable for Golden Sun than it would be for Sin & Punishment though.

 

[Deleted member]

Facts? In a debate about uncertainty? Seriously? It's all a matter of opinion, there's no 100% fact at all in regards to how cuts, character choice, or anything about Smash for that matter. Jigglypuff is an uncertainty that no one agrees on, with no point in debate anyway. I say she deserves to be in for a numerous amount of reasons, not that SHE IS going to be in. No where have i ever argued otherwise. Do I think she'll make it? Duh. Does that mean I'm saying it's a fact she will be? Not at all.

Meanwhile you casually act like she has no right, or "right" as you would say like she doesn't even have one. She's a part of Smash, she's important to Smash, definitely not to Pokemon anymore. Sorry that you seem to disagree.

Also way to not quote the part of my last post regarding why Mewtwo MAY HAVE BEEN cut. And you know what, he DIDN'T cut her out of Brawl, so I'm not seeing some pattern to indicate she is going, or in some high danger that you view her being.

"But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things."

You can assume that's his process for adding the NEW reps, not just starting over every game in the series. Above is a direct quote from the article as well. She is unique, she fits into Smash just find seeing as she's been part of it since the beginning, and she has history with the series as whole. Don't discredit her so easily.

So instead of getting facts straight, you step into the lion's den with barbecue sauce to pour on yourself and rock to throw at the lion.

NEVER did I say Jigglypuff has no "right" to be in Smash, and no, I'm not putting quotations to say that she "doesn't have one", I'm putting quotations BECAUSE IT'S A POINT I WAS NEVER ARGUING. Do you ****ing get that now?

As for "not quoting the part about Mewtwo" YOU ****ING EDITED YOUR POST. It was NOT there when I hit the quote button, and it was a point I DID NOT SEE. Anything else you want to say to piss me off more? You're already at a point I want to knock your teeth in.

Actually, I'm glad it wasn't there before; it's nothing but bull****.
Mewtwo was not "dropped" for Lucario; Mewtwo was planned for the game. And just like Jigglypuff, Mewtwo was low priority. The only difference is, when push came to shove, Mewtwo had to scrapped while Jigglypuff could stay. Low priority does not mean "gonna be cut", it means "if they have to be cut, they will be". Jigglypuff was one of the three that were lucky to not have to have been cut.
Aside from that, Lucario's situation now does not match Mewtwo's and Jigglypuff's before. Lucario is STILL a "hot ticket"; it's still being heavily marketed and getting promotion.
And with Mewtwo being more of a "hot ticket", that leaves Jigglypuff in the same problems as it had pre-Brawl.

So yes, when it comes down to it, Mewtwo and Lucario will outprioritize Jigglypuff next go round. At that point, as long as Sakurai doesn't find interest in any of the Unova or Kalos Pokémon, Jiggs should still be able to squeak by barring any time issues that require low priority characters to be scrapped from development (as the case for Brawl).

And no, you can't just assume he's only talking about NEW characters in his statement, that's stupid. Especially since he also says that he looks to Pokémon that are in the anime; ones that are in movies as of recent; ones that will be central to any conversation of Pokémon going forward. What you quoted is just an addition to it, as in it's not enough that a certain Pokémon is getting spotlight, they have to also be unique and be feasible.
Example, in Melee's time, Entei was the "hot ticket" movie Pokémon. But Entei is not suited for Smash due to an improper body type. So regardless of being a recent movie star, he isn't feasible.
And really, if Jigglypuff's history was as strong a point as you think it is, Jigglypuff would not have been low priority at all.

And so it's finally clear to you; I'm not saying Jigglypuff SHOULD be cut. I'm saying that she easily COULD be.

 

[N3ON]

2. A lot of that stuff is likely, yes. Such as a Mario Galaxy stage, more Retro characters, etc. I agree. Both Likely and Unlikely have categories, and then there are stuff that is practically Neutral.

Sure, there is a middle-ground as well, but as far as a GS rep is concerned, Isaac is far closer to "likely" while Matthew is far closer to "unlikely".

3. That varies on the series I guess.

No. No it doesn't. We're not talking about series that have yet to have a character revealed, we're talking about existing series in Smash, where we have proof. And of those series, which one hasn't gotten their most well known and most iconic character first?

Lets take Golden Sun vs Sin & Punishment. Isaac is the clear lead in most of the Golden Suns up to this point (Matthew is probably going to take that spot in the future). Being in the most games makes him more likely, as is his teen appearance. When it comes to Sin & Punishment, both Saki and Isa only have one game each (and neither really have any precedent over the other). The difference here is terms of importance each lead of both series has against each other. Isaac outways Matthew, but the S&P debacle isn't as clear. Matthew could happen, but Isaac is more likely. Neither Saki or Isa have anything really over the other (especially for as minor a franchise as it is). The S&P rep "could" go the way of Ninten vs Ness.....or it could not. Also they practically never go for a franchise without the well-known character, this is more noticeable for Golden Sun than it would be for Sin & Punishment though.

Ok, for S&P it very well might be more debatable (though with S&P's VC release being successful enough to warrant a sequel which then wasn't as successful as its predecessor, things still seem to be in Saki's favour). But as it stands S&P probably won't even get a character. The point is, one character (Isaac) is the face of his series, and the most popular character. These are the characters who get in first. If you disagree, prove otherwise. Matthew could eventually surpass Isaac if he gets future games (not so likely without GS getting a character in Smash first) and those games matching or outweighing the success of the first two (even unlikelier without a Smash-influenced resurgence). Obviously that's not a probably outcome. But regardless, if you admit Isaac outweighs Matthew in terms of factors for Smash, why still include Matthew? When has recentness outweighed being the most iconic?

 

[DragonSniperNintendo]

Sure, there is a middle-ground as well, but as far as a GS rep is concerned, Isaac is far closer to "likely" while Matthew is far closer to "unlikely".


No. No it doesn't. We're not talking about series that have yet to have a character revealed, we're talking about existing series in Smash, where we have proof. And of those series, which one hasn't gotten their most well known and most iconic character first?



Ok, for S&P it very well might be more debatable (though with S&P's VC release being successful enough to warrant a sequel which then wasn't as successful as its predecessor, things still seem to be in Saki's favour). But as it stands S&P probably won't even get a character. The point is, one character (Isaac) is the face of his series, and the most popular character. These are the characters who get in first. If you disagree, prove otherwise. Matthew could eventually surpass Isaac if he gets future games (not so likely without GS getting a character in Smash first) and those games matching or outweighing the success of the first two (even unlikelier without a Smash-influenced resurgence). Obviously that's not a probably outcome. But regardless, if you admit Isaac outweighs Matthew in terms of factors for Smash, why still include Matthew? When has recentness outweighed being the most iconic?

1. OK
2. I agree they would at least go with iconic first, depending mostly on the franchise, but yes they do pretty much.
3. Matthew isn't on my current roster though, I had Adult Isaac. I said it was possible for me to put him back on. However I will pretty much for to Teen Isaac and keep Isa Jo as my S&P choice.

 

[AEMehr]

I am very late on this but...

Did I just step back into youtube? Because judging by everything in Red (Which are bad ideas), it certainly looks like it. All I need is a Ridley is too big comment and it'll be perfect...ly horrible.

I find the fact that you think Waluigi and Professor Layton are worse ideas than King Boo to be appalling.

EDIT: SAFDADSSAFDASD
AAAAAAH TOON LIIIIINK

 

[BKupa666]

Shut the f...ront door! I don't believe it! This early?!

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

What was all that talk about Toon Link not being a character because he was in the background of a stage? YEEEEEEAAAH!

 

[BKupa666]

Early reactions:
--Falkoopa is gonna orgasm
--Twice I've stayed up for the update, twice it's been a veteran reveal
--The "he's obviously cut, he's a background character, an you're an idiot if you think otherwise because it's just so obvious'' people have got some 'splainin' to do
--Two characters, one month, as SmashChu (?) predicted may happen eventually just due to a surplus of veterans to show

 

[AEMehr]

Well to be fair, WW HD released in Japan today.
But still, before Zelda???????

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Toon Link is baaaaaaaaaaack! No updated move set apparently....I want the deku leaf and skull hammer! Also, this all but deconfirms Retro Link :tear:

Toon Zelda's chances has increased though!

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

Well to be fair, WW HD released in Japan today.
But still, before Zelda???????

I'm just glad they revealed a veteran that a lot of people were doubting.

 

[FinalStarmen]

So... to those spectators that considered Toon Link nonviable for this iteration of Super Smash Brothers, solely because of the Spirit Tracks stage..... they are wrong. So very wrong. I must say, it is quite enjoyable for me to watch them be ever so very wrong. It's gratifyingly delicious.

 

[N3ON]

Well to be fair, WW HD released in Japan today.
But still, before Zelda???????

I'm guessing if this hadn't been a Toon game, Zelda would've been the one revealed over TL. As it stand now, she'll probably be in November.

--Two characters, one month, as SmashChu (?) predicted may happen eventually just due to a surplus of veterans to show

If SmashChu was saying that, he was hardly the only person.

 

[AEMehr]

I just can't wait for the inevitable pic of Toon Link and Spirit Tracks Link in the same photo.
"You may have noticed that Toon Link also appears in the Spirit Tracks stage. This Toon Link is actually a different person entirely, so fitting in Toon Link from the Wind Waker HD wasn't an issue at all. [laughs]"

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Well to be fair, WW HD released in Japan today.
But still, before Zelda???????

I don't think the order in which the characters are revealed matters.

So... to those spectators that considered Toon Link nonviable for this iteration of Super Smash Brothers, solely because of the Spirit Tracks stage..... they are wrong. So very wrong. I must say, it is quite enjoyable for me to watch them be ever so very wrong. It's gratifyingly delicious.

I personally didn't expect him, not because of his Spirit Tracks appearance but because of multiple other reasons. But hey, glad to see him back.

 

[Ridley_Prime]

Well, I guess the revelation of the dual role Toon Link has will change some of the current speculation there is for some of the other characters, so yay?

 

[FalKoopa]

Early reactions:
--Falkoopa is gonna orgasm

Lol.

I was literally shouting at the top of my voice for a while, though.

Anyways, ALBW Link is disconfirmed. This also probably raises Toon Zelda's chances a bit.

 

[Frostwraith]

So... to those spectators that considered Toon Link nonviable for this iteration of Super Smash Brothers, solely because of the Spirit Tracks stage..... they are wrong. So very wrong. I must say, it is quite enjoyable for me to watch them be ever so very wrong. It's gratifyingly delicious.

Yes, indeed...

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I feel like this is the veteran reveal that pretty much kicks teeth in and forces people to wake up and release Sakurai is not a creature to be predicted.

I foresee a trollish picture of Wii Fit Trainer and Toon Link tomorrow as a ''**** you I do what I want."

 

[N3ON]

Yes, Sakurai kept Toon Link, which many weren't counting on, but attributing this reveal to Sakurai and not Nintendo is a bit misguided imo. I mean sure, if he wasn't ready they wouldn't have revealed him, but this was almost definitely not Sakurai's decision, same as the other promotion-based reveals.

 

[papagenos]

Wow I'm surprised Toon Link was basically at the top of my list of "probably cut" characters... this honestly has me excited the roster might be bigger than I was assuming (i was assuming 40 MAYBE 43 with about 5 cuts...yeah pessimistic I know) now that toon link the character at the top of my cuts is actually in I'm thinking 45 with maybe a couple cuts might really be happening. get hyped.

 

[xXBlazeMonkeyXx]

welcome back my little buddy!!!!!!

 

[CrusherMania1592]

TOON LINK IS BACK?!?



OMGWHTHISNTIAHIGNIENG

 

[TumblrFamous]

No one can be happier at this reveal than me and Falkoopa. He looks so amazing! Dem Catlike eyes!

And it seems that he's going to be keeping, so far, his spin attack, arrows, and his bombs. YAY!

 

[MagnesD3]

Toon Link is baaaaaaaaaaack! No updated move set apparently....I want the deku leaf and skull hammer! Also, this all but deconfirms Retro Link :tear:

Toon Zelda's chances has increased though!

I predict changes to normals at least.

 

[New_Dumal]

Toon Zelda? Toon Ganondorf could be SO MORE UNIQUE.
And with Toon Ganon, Sakurai could retire that Cap.Falcon semiclone that is Ganondorf in SSB.

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

Another thing that this reveal really shook my "Luigi will be a starter" argument. While TL coooould be a starter, its not very likely. Therefore, its entirely possible that previously locked characters that revealed through promotions may still be unlocked.

When viewed this way, it is extremely likely we will have a Mewtwo or Lucario update next month.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Well that was certainly a surprise. A welcome one at that.

Toon Link was amongst the ones people thought were most likely to get cut and BAM; 4th Vet revealed on the site.
I'll admit I had my doubts he;d return, but I'm glad he's back.

 

[Arcadenik]

Toon Link?! What the hell are you doing on the starter roster? You're supposed to be unlockable. Now we have two Links on the starter roster this time. What does Toon Link's early confirmation mean for the Zelda roster?

Is Zelda going to keep her Twilight Princess look or is she going to be updated to her Skyward Sword look? Is she still going to transform into Sheik or is she going to be in a tag team with Impa instead? Is Toon Zelda more likely now? Is Ganondorf going to become Toon Ganondorf? Is Tingle going to be playable this time around?

I'm glad that Toon Link is back to say the least... I always preferred him over regular Link... But I'm a little disappointed he doesn't appear to be decloned at all. Stupid Sakurai's rule about child Links having to be the same as adult Links.

 

[TumblrFamous]

Another thing that this reveal really shook my "Luigi will be a starter" argument. While TL coooould be a starter, its not very likely. Therefore, its entirely possible that previously locked characters that revealed through promotions may still be unlocked.

When viewed this way, it is extremely likely we will have a Mewtwo or Lucario update next month.

Let me compose myself.... I agree. I think he's just showing off characters like Toon Link or Luigi because of their games. There's no doubt in my mind that they'll be unlockables again.

And what of the irony, everyone? Here I was last night trying to make a realistic roster, and cutting Toon Link, saying I think he's one of the first out. Ugh. And who was saying a few days ago we will get something for WWHD?