Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

[ChronoBound]

Yet Lucario is Gen 4 and you'd be removing a Pokemon very close to his popularity. Sakurai wouldn't make that mistake twice in a row.

Mewtwo is going to outpriortize Lucario because he is both more popular and he is being more heavily promoted in relation to X/Y.

However, I do think Lucario is safer than the likes of Ike, Toon Link, and Snake though.

 

[BluePikmin11]

But doesn't he research alot of Pokemon before choosing one, it says in the Sakurai's criteria.
I don't think the Pokemon Company is deciding on this one.

 

[Silverjay323]

Sakurai likely sees Ridley as an impossibility, as he's stated before. My faith in both Ridley and K.Rool was never strong to begin with. At this point I honestly think this may out lesser characters like Isaac.

 

[ChronoBound]

Yet Lucario is Gen 4 and you'd be removing a Pokemon very close to his popularity. Sakurai wouldn't make that mistake twice in a row.

Mewtwo is going to outpriortize Lucario because he is both more popular and he is being more heavily promoted in relation to X/Y.

However, I do think Lucario is safer than the likes of Ike, Toon Link, and Snake though.

 

[BluePikmin11]

If there was an additional 2nd party, we'd most likely get at least 3 2nd party characters from 3 different series. My personal picks are Isaac, Starfy, and Chibi Robo.

 

[CalumG]

Sakurai likely sees Ridley as an impossibility, as he's stated before. My faith in both Ridley and K.Rool was never strong to begin with. At this point I honestly think this may out lesser characters like Isaac.

He said Ridley was impossible, and then went back on that statement in the very next sentence. I don't think that really counts.

 

[FlareHabanero]

Sakurai likely sees Ridley as an impossibility, as he's stated before.

Sakurai likely sees Villager as too inappropriate, as he's stated before.

 

[N3ON]

If there was an additional 2nd party, we'd most likely get at least 3 2nd party characters from 3 different series. My personal picks are Isaac, Starfy, and Chibi Robo.

There's no real evidence Sakurai categorizes 2nd parties different than first-parties, I doubt he'd limit or add second-parties just because they were second-parties. What we've seen so far is he seems to hold them to the exact same standards as the first-parties.

 

[TheLastJinjo]

Mewtwo is going to outpriortize Lucario because he is both more popular and he is being more heavily promoted in relation to X/Y.

However, I do think Lucario is safer than the likes of Ike, Toon Link, and Snake though.

I call bull crap on that. Lucario is just as related to X & Y, you'd be removing an insanely popular pokemon, and you'd have all gen 1 Pokemon, Mewtwo is big priority, but I doubt he'll get in if it means replacing Lucario. Jiggs on the other hand...

 

[ChronoBound]

Sakurai likely sees Ridley as an impossibility, as he's stated before. My faith in both Ridley and K.Rool was never strong to begin with. At this point I honestly think this may out lesser characters like Isaac.

I think if Sakurai only includes Dixie Kong and not K. Rool, K. Rool will get in Smash 5 assuming a new DK game with K. Rool is made.

If no new DK game with K. Rool is made in the interim between Smash 4 and Smash 5, K. Rool could very well end up falling down the memory hole (due to his last game appearance having been in 2007/2008), by the time development for Smash 5 happens.

I do think though if a third Returns game happens, K. Rool and the Kremlings will make a comeback though.

So all of you out there better buy Tropical Freeze.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

If there was an additional 2nd party, we'd most likely get at least 3 2nd party characters from 3 different series. My personal picks are Isaac, Starfy, and Chibi Robo.

Isaac, Starfy, and Andy. I love Chibi-Robo, but you gotta admit, he'd make for the absolute best Assist Trophy of all time. Going around picking up items, scrubbing the floor to make it slippery, and blasting away opponents. It screams little robot helper, as in, little assist trophy.

There's no real evidence Sakurai categorizes 2nd parties different than first-parties, I doubt he'd limit or add second-parties just because they were second-parties. What we've seen so far is he seems to hold them to the exact same standards as the first-parties.

I believe he's said that 2nd-party characters still involve a bit of paperwork. Even Pikachu takes more time to get a license for Smash Bros. than characters like Olimar and Samus.

 

[Deleted member]

All I'm saying is that attempts to justify Toad as viable based on the notion that Peach's moveset could change reek of denial.


No K. Rool or Ridley won't hurt SSB4's sales. Brawl sold fantastically well and included neither of those characters despite their popularity.

Brawl had a ton of popularly requested characters that were as wanted if not more so than Ridley and King K. Rool that got in, so their exclusion had virtually no effect on sales.

Smash 4, however, is a much different beast. Ridley and King K. Rool are two of the most wanted Nintendo newcomers for this game (not counting Mewtwo) and were highly expected for a significant period of time. They also have some of the best résumes for a potential newcomer. They have the extremely high fan demand, they're very important characters within their own franchise and they're very unique. One character won't have much of an effect on sales, but groups of characters will. A big selling point in Smash are the characters. If the roster is underwhelming in that few popularly requested characters gets in and multiple unique veterans get the axe, sales will take a hit.

 

[ChronoBound]

I call bull crap on that. Lucario is just as related to X & Y, you'd be removing an insanely popular pokemon, and you'd have all gen 1 Pokemon, Mewtwo is big priority, but I doubt he'll get in if it means replacing Lucario. Jiggs on the other hand...

You would have to be lacking eyes to not see that Mewtwo is being more heavily promoted than Lucario right now. There was even a Mewtwo-centric movie released just a few months ago. And secondly, Jigglypuff is going nowhere.

 

[N3ON]

Isaac, Starfy, and Andy. I love Chibi-Robo, but you gotta admit, he'd make for the absolute best Assist Trophy of all time. Going around picking up items, scrubbing the floor to make it slippery, and blasting away opponents. It screams little robot helper, as in, little assist trophy.

Andy isn't second party. He's like FE.

I do think though if a third Returns game happens, K. Rool and the Kremlings will make a comeback though.

So all of you out there better buy Tropical Freeze.

I doubt Nintendo will be deterred from making a DKCR3. Even if this one doesn't sell like the first, that'll likely be due to the Wii U's install base, not the game itself, and I think Nintendo would be aware of that.

That said, I don't see it as Retro's next project.

 

[kingmario92]

I have nothing interesting to say

 

[ChronoBound]

Speaking of sales, I am definitely seeing Smash 4 Wii U selling worse than Brawl, for these reasons:
1. Far smaller install base.
2. Coming out later in the Wii U's life than Brawl did in the Wii's life.
3. Less hype for it than Brawl.
4. Even if the game has legs, the Wii U is likely going to have a smaller lifespan than the Wii did.

It may even end up selling worse than Melee, and possibly Smash 64.

One thing Sakurai really needs to be careful of is a lot of people simply buying the 3DS version, and being content with that.

 

[BluePikmin11]

There will only be a DKCR3 if they have Retro has more ideas, but it's likely that Kremlings won't return because Retro wants their own kind of enemies in DKC.

 

[God Robert's Cousin]

Brawl had a ton of popularly requested characters that were as wanted if not more so than Ridley and King K. Rool that got in, so their exclusion had virtually no effect on sales.

Smash 4, however, is a much different beast. Ridley and King K. Rool are two of the most wanted Nintendo newcomers for this game (not counting Mewtwo) and were highly expected for a significant period of time. They also have some of the best résumes for a potential newcomer. They have the extremely high fan demand, they're very important characters within their own franchise and they're very unique. One character won't have much of an effect on sales, but groups of characters will. A big selling point in Smash are the characters. If the roster is underwhelming in that few popularly requested characters gets in and multiple unique veterans get the axe, sales will take a hit.

The only concern I have with that logic...

Would you honestly not buy SSB4 if Mega Man and Sonic weren't in it? They each overshadow Ridley and King K. Rool in popularity.

I can tell you right now, I'd sure be upset that Mega Man isn't in SSB4 if he wasn't in SSB4, but I'd be kidding myself if I let that be my reasoning for why I'm not getting it.

There will only be a DKCR3 if they have Retro has more ideas, but it's likely that Kremlings won't return because Retro wants their own kind of enemies in DKC.

Stop.

Don't make me give up hope on seeing them in Tropical Freeze.

Don't you dare.

 

[Silverjay323]

He said Ridley was impossible, and then went back on that statement in the very next sentence. I don't think that really counts.

Sakurai likely sees Villager as too inappropriate, as he's stated before.

He listed possibilities most likely because he didn't want to flat-out deconfirm a character. I'm not saying his opinions don't change, but it doesn't seem like he had any intention to include him to begin with, unlike Villager.

 

[FlareHabanero]

There's no real evidence Sakurai categorizes 2nd parties different than first-parties, I doubt he'd limit or add second-parties just because they were second-parties. What we've seen so far is he seems to hold them to the exact same standards as the first-parties.

Don't know, from what we've seen that may be the case of keeping a somewhat low exposure of that kind of content in order to prevent possible conflicts later in the future, like third party content but generally more safe-ish. It would explain a few things at least, like how during Melee the only content from company Rare was mostly Donkey Kong content with a cameo from Perfect Dark/GoldenEye007, and why in Brawl the majority of 2nd party stuff was regulated to an Assist Trophy cameo at best.

 

[N3ON]

There will only be a DKCR3 if they have Retro has more ideas, but it's likely that Kremlings won't return because Retro wants their own kind of enemies in DKC.

If Nintendo wants more DKCR, there will be more DKCR, with or without Retro.

I have nothing interesting to say

Well at least you know you have nothing interesting to say, unlike a lot of people here who think they do but really don't.

 

[CalumG]

One thing Sakurai really needs to be careful of is a lot of people simply buying the 3DS version, and being content with that.

To be honest, I find the decision to release Smash on both consoles an incredibly poor one from a marketing standpoint - whilst I as a fan am happy to buy and enjoy both, I don't doubt that a lot of people will be happy to get a very similar experience on their 3DS and not bother with the Wii U version. By having it available on both handheld and console, it kills the fact that in previous generations, Smash has been a system-seller for home consoles. It still will be, no doubt; but perhaps not to the same extent knowing that there's a perfectly viable alternative on a cheaper console, and one that the average person is more likely to already own.

They're cannibalizing their own sales.

 

[Deleted member]

Surprised by the fact that people are not in denial about Toad being debunked like they are with Toon Link. Apparently the rules of multiples only applies to your favorite character.

Difference is that the Link we saw was Spirit Track Link. We could still get the Toon Link we got in Brawl, who is Wind Waker Link. Plus the Blue Falcon runs in Port Town in Brawl yet Captain Falcon is still playable.

The Toad we saw was in his iconic outfit. Not blue, not red, his iconic outfit. Neither are disconfirmed, but Toon Link does have the better shot of getting in out of the two.

 

[AEMehr]

That Kirby hammer picture. Pretty sure it's Battlefield at night

No it isn't. Compare it to photos of Battlefield at night, the lighting and sky are completely different.
http://www.mariowiki.com/images/a/aa/WiiU_SmashBros_scrnC02_04_E3.png
http://www.mariowiki.com/images/1/18/WiiU_SmashBros_scrnC05_07_E3.png
http://www.mariowiki.com/images/2/2a/WiiU_SmashBros_scrnNew03_07_E3.png
http://www.mariowiki.com/images/2/28/SSB4_-_Miiverse_U12.png

Everything leads to it being a Super Mario Galaxy stage.

 

[jaytalks]

If Retro is a fan of trilogies, we will get a DKCR3. We got three Metroids from them. However, Nintendo might need them for a different type of project other that a platformer, due to the Wii U's many platformers. But DKCR did sell more than their Metroid entries, so it all depends. My guess is we get either another DKCR or entirely new project (maybe Star Fox) before Metroid. Metroid appears to be on break.

In terms of characters getting people to buy games, it's not a matter of one character selling a gaming. It is each character adding to the chance you might purchase. No single character can sell the game because most of them come from different genres in which Smash's core principles won't cross over. So Mega Man adds to the chances someone might purchase the game. And so does the Villager, for all those AC fans who see a New Leaf as the best game on 3DS. All the characters work together to sell the product.

 

[N3ON]

Don't know, from what we've seen that may be the case of keeping a somewhat low exposure of that kind of content in order to prevent possible conflicts later in the future, like third party content but generally more safe-ish. It would explain a few things at least, like how during Melee the only content from company Rare was mostly Donkey Kong content with a cameo from Perfect Dark/GoldenEye007, and why in Brawl the majority of 2nd party stuff was regulated to an Assist Trophy cameo at best.

Or it could be because Rare and Nintendo were going through legal troubles at the time and they had a lot of content removed from Melee and because Sakurai prioritized content from series with playable characters over series without.

And as for 2nd parties being ATs at best... that's because every 2nd party series of Nintendo's, bar Pokemon, wasn't on the level of the first-party series, not because Sakurai viewed them as "lesser".

 

[BluePikmin11]

Difference is that the Link we saw was Spirit Track Link. We could still get the Toon Link we got in Brawl, who is Wind Waker Link. Plus the Blue Falcon runs in Port Town in Brawl yet Captain Falcon is still playable.

I don't think Sakurai cares about technicality.

Also I'm getting the Wii U version because of the beautiful graphics.

If Retro is a fan of trilogies, we will get a DKCR3. We got three Metroids from them. However, Nintendo might need them for a different type of project other that a platformer, due to the Wii U's many platformers. But DKCR did sell more than their Metroid entries, so it all depends. My guess is we get either another DKCR or entirely new project (maybe Star Fox) before Metroid. Metroid appears to be on break.

In terms of characters getting people to buy games, it's not a matter of one character selling a gaming. It is each character adding to the chance you might purchase. No single character can sell the game because most of them come from different genres in which Smash's core principles won't cross over. So Mega Man adds to the chances someone might purchase the game. And so does the Villager, for all those AC fans who see a New Leaf as the best game on 3DS. All the characters work together to sell the product.

I see Layton also adding the chances of someone buying Smash 4. But Pac-Man, not really, at least for me.

 

[Curious Villager]

I'd rather not get ahead of myself and call any unconfirmed characters 100% cut or confirmed until the game is out and we have seen the full roster. All we can go on is how likely we think they are. Or else we can possibly end up with cases like Brawl R.O.B., Ness and Mewtwo again. But that's just my opinion really...

Oh well, hi again everyone.

 

[?????????????]

When it comes to newcomers, there isn't anyone that I'm absolutely expecting, but these four stand out to me:

Mewtwo: When it was initially revealed in it's new form, I immediately thought Mewtwo stood a chance, not to mention the movie going along with it. I thought that maybe his chances had been slightly less prominent after the feature of many "Mega Pokemon," but now that we know Mewtwo has TWO different Mega Forms, his uniqueness has been rekindled...again. It has a lot going for it.

Chrom: Despite what others may say, this totally follows what we saw in Ike's inclusion, to a T. This is a total opinion, but I really think Awakening completely stands out as a new Fire Emblem title; I'd be more surprised to NOT see Chrom.

Ridley: This is our only classic, recurring Nintendo bad guy left. Like Bowser and Ganon, he started on the NES and continues to be the recurring antagonist of his series. K. Rool, in comparison, came later, and now is not the antagonist we see in newer DK games (from what we've seen so far). When a new Metroid game comes out, you still expect that Ridley will be in it (in some ways, more than you expect Ganon to appear in a new Legend of Zelda).

Little Mac: This...is just my own most wanted character.

 

[BKupa666]

Okay, comparing Toad to Mewtwo, K. Rool and Ridley is a bit of a massive stretch, considering all that they share is importance, nothing more. Unlike Toad, all three of those are popular requests, two of those are popular requests in multiple regions, and one of those has been in or planned for every Smash game to date. The people who like to lump Toad in with them have even gone on record saying that fan demand is split amongst the potential Mario newcomers, as well as that Toad being liked in Japan does not translate to him being requested for Smash. Compared to the possible exclusion of those three, Toad doesn't compare. The fact that his fans have to work desperately to sell users on his inclusion and that he wouldn't be "boring" is indication enough that he might not be the most ideal choice for Smash, particularly if newcomer spots are at a premium.

As a general rule, as much as people lament the fact that certain potential newcomers are underrated, it's no coincidence that they're rated lowly to begin with.

 

[Deleted member]

The only concern I have with that logic...

Would you honestly not buy SSB4 if Mega Man and Sonic weren't in it? They each overshadow Ridley and King K. Rool in popularity.

I can tell you right now, I'd sure be upset that Mega Man isn't in SSB4 if he wasn't in SSB4, but I'd be kidding myself if I let that be my reasoning for why I'm not getting it.

Considering that they're guests, they wouldn't effect my decision to not buy the game if they were excluded. I consider them an incredibly awesome bonus, but not a necessity. However, if they were excluded and the SSB4 roster turns out to be crap, I probably wouldn't get the game.

 

[ChronoBound]

Chrom: Despite what others may say, this totally follows what we saw in Ike's inclusion, to a T. .

His strong similarities to Ike is the reason why a lot of people are not keen on him. Its also the reason why I think Lucario overall is safer than Ike (Chrom can realistically inherit most or all of Ike's moveset, whereas, no other Pokemon could take all of Lucario's moveset).

The only two ways I can see Chrom getting in are:
1. At the expense of Ike.
2. Having the tag-team gimmick.

Otherwise, Sakurai will just pass over him.

 

[xXBlazeMonkeyXx]

 

[?????????????]

His strong similarities to Ike is the reason why a lot of people are not keen on him. Its also the reason why I think Lucario overall is safer than Ike (Chrom can realistically inherit most or all of Ike's moveset, whereas, no other Pokemon could take all of Lucario's moveset).

The only two ways I can see Chrom getting in are:
1. At the expense of Ike.
2. Having the tag-team gimmick.

Otherwise, Sakurai will just pass over him.

I can see him replacing Ike, but I don't think that's necessary; it's entirely possible to create a separate, unique moveset for Chrom. Plus...I doubt Sakurai will pass over a character simply because they're "similar" to another character (Fox, Falco, Wolf, Ness, Lucas, etc.).

 

[xXBlazeMonkeyXx]

this is my ssb4 roster prediction 2.0

 

[Gune]

o3o

 

[xXBlazeMonkeyXx]

o3o

o3o

 

[FlareHabanero]

it's entirely possible to create a separate, unique moveset for Chrom.

Pfffffthahahaha!

 

[ChronoBound]

I can see him replacing Ike, but I don't think that's necessary; it's entirely possible to create a separate, unique moveset for Chrom. Plus...I doubt Sakurai will pass over a character simply because they're "similar" to another character (Fox, Falco, Wolf, Ness, Lucas, etc.).

Sakurai said an emphasis this time will be to bring in characters that are "things that we have not seen before in Smash Bros.". Especially considering that we likely will have a smaller number of newcomers than Brawl did (and possibly even Melee), I don't think Chrom is something we haven't seen yet in Smash Bros. before, especially coming after Marth, Roy, and Ike.

I feel if Sakurai wants an all-new FE character for Smash Bros. he is going to want to deviate from the traditional swordsman arche-type, and bring us something entirely fresh not just from what we have already seen in regards to FE characters in Smash Bros., but in regards to Smash Bros. as whole.

 

[BluePikmin11]

View attachment 2480 this is my ssb4 roster prediction 2.0

Could use some organization, I think Isaac will be chosen over Matthew.
What makes Matthew a better Golden Sun character than Isaac?
I can see well for Isa though.