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Roster Prediction Discussion Thread

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I wasn't try to say that Smash completely deviates from every other fighting game out there in every way, I was saying that comparing it to other fighting games (that existed before Smash popularized both the mascot fighter and the platform fighter) to try and predict what the future of Smash will be, and using logic such as "this happens in other fighting games, therefore it must also happen in Smash" is a bit of a flawed way of looking at things. And not even from a solely gameplay perspective. Obviously there are gameplay differences between Smash and the fighters that existed previously, but I also was referring to situations such as when people say "3rd-parties won't return because no other fighter has had them return", while, true, this can't be proven incorrect yet, just because it happened in another fighter doesn't mean Smash will adhere to it. That's all I was saying, of course there are many similarities, if there weren't calling it a fighting game would be debatable as a whole.

Disregarding all the games that have tried to emulate Smash in one way or another, and acknowledging that there are many similarities (which I never denied) I stand by Smash being an atypical fighter, and not just from a gameplay perspective.
Ok, I gotcha.

I agree that trying to predict the roster in that way is a flawed way of looking at things, in fact, I even mentioned it last post. However, wouldn't you say that the opposite is also true? That trying to disprove cuts by saying that BECAUSE Smash is an atypical fighter, then it will deviate from the standard, is also flawed? Both are rather flawed forms of analyzing what will happen as they aren't looking at the core of the situation, but instead looking at superficial patterns. There really is no way to prove that the development for Smash and the roster selection process happens in one way or the other.

In fact, on the subject of cuts. If you think about it. Technically, the Smash series has been prone to them before any of us even played Smash 64. Because, like I said, cuts happen due to time constraints, etc... And the planned roster has been cut short in both 64 and Melee, many of those characters finally appearing in Brawl. In the case of Melee, many of the clone characters were finally added as a way of buffing the roster at the last minute to compensate for the characters that didn't make it in. So if we keep that in mind, and the design process of making the game, then logically, I don't see why this would stop happening in Smash 4. How DLC may come into play is a different monster all together ofc.

I agree that in regard to 3rd parties it's even more fallacious to think that way though. But at the same time, the argument that "Guest characters will not return because they are guests" is a very real one, one that can't really be disproven until either Sonic or Snake get confirmed for a return (or not). I mean, both were marketed as guest characters during the launch for Brawl, being the primary selling point for that game. In addition if we also take the legal and corporate issues into account, then the whole situation is even more difficult to ascertain, particularly in regard to Snake (which is funny as 6 months ago I was telling all those who were sure Sonic would come back and Snake wouldn't to **** off, ofc, the circumstances now are very different from 6 months ago, hahahaha). On the other hand, Sakurai has publically stated his sentiment about displeasing fans by cutting characters, and given how popular both Snake and Sonic were, maybe we'll be seeing them after all.

Anyway, what I'm getting at is that when you look at the 3rd party characters, ultimately what determines their return is something that falls completely out of our abilities to predict. All I can say is that Sonic seems to have a high chance of returning, and despite not wanting it so, Snake doesn't seem so certain. However, the way I see it, us getting JUST Megaman, or all 3 are both equally likely to happen.




I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people here let what they think should happen get in the way of what likely will happen.

Nope, that's what happens period. But it's kinda what makes debating worthwhile. Ultimately we can't predict what WILL happen without some bias. Removing ALL bias from this is quite difficult, and honestly, admitting that you have some in regard to character selection is better than pretending you are the ultimate objective GOD of Smash Bros and KNOW what you are talking about.

Because really... Most of us are just talking out of our asses. Hahahahaha.

Paper Mario, the answer is always PAPER MARIO.



Whoa I think you're onto something there with that Calum...
Agreed, on both points actually.

Also, I don't see why people think Toad is more notable, likely, or interesting than Paper Mario or Jr.

If anything, Paper Mario "deserves" the spot more for being the RPG Mario, who has access to a different set of moves than platforming Mario. As for Jr. from a gameplay standpoint, he'd make a much better 'glass cannon' than Toad. Just my two cents, but the fact that The Toad, and generic Toad don't really stand out from each other kinda works against him imo, and the fact that the other two can offer just as interesting or even more interesting movesets puts him far behind the other two.

I don't see why the DK series doesn't deserve four reps. Sure it might not get four, but it's big enough (amount-of-games-wise and commercially), popular enough, and has two more-than-qualified characters. It's definitely the series that should be next in line, much moreso than Kirby, SF, or FE tbh. Whether it will get four is obviously another question.


Well, I would have been inclined to agree here a long time ago, but I don't think Sakurai looks for balanced representation across series. I think he just picks and pulls a character based on what that character can offer independently from what they represent.

I mean, if the representation argument is flawed in regard to 'recentness' then I'd say it's also flawed in regard to roster balance.

If Sakurai adds both Dixie and K.Rool in, it's cause he felt both would make unique additions over all other options. We just justify it to ourselves as "a series deserving reps," but I don't think Sakurai is thinking in terms of what a series deserves and what a series doesn't.

At least that's the way I see it.

Hey guys. Two questions for you all.

1) If you had to pick one of Ridley, K. Rool and Little Mac to not appear in Smash Bros. 4 in any form, which would it be?
2) What do you guys think about a roster competition? keybladeguy just finished his here, and I'm wondering if you guys would be cool with running the idea again, but with better judgement (probably a community poll and tournament bracket). There was something similar on Gamefaqs that ended like a week ago so you guys could check that out for what I'm thinking of.
1) K.Rool, I'm not against his inclusion in any way, but Ridley and Little Mac seem like they would be wayyyy more fun to play as. K.Rool I think would play a lot like Bowser.
2) You mean like we would post our roster and compete to see whose is more accurate? Sounds like a recipe for lots of ****-flinging and dumb debates.... COUNT ME IN!! Hahaha.

What would happen if ALL the series were just like the Mario series? (If every series had 5 characters) Ill make a roster tomorrow.


Thanks but no thanks. I'd rather have 25, really diverse and balanced characters than 100+ skins of the same character with 'slightly' different properties. BT3 was fun, but it lacked any real depth, game got boring once you realized EVERYONE had the same combos.
 

Holder of the Heel

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Agreed, on both points actually.
Yeah, Holder be broodin', don't mind me. :laugh:

Also, I don't see why people think Toad is more notable, likely, or interesting than Paper Mario or Jr.

If anything, Paper Mario "deserves" the spot more for being the RPG Mario, who has access to a different set of moves than platforming Mario. As for Jr. from a gameplay standpoint, he'd make a much better 'glass cannon' than Toad. Just my two cents, but the fact that The Toad, and generic Toad don't really stand out from each other kinda works against him imo, and the fact that the other two can offer just as interesting or even more interesting movesets puts him far behind the other two.
At this point on our Smash adventure, my view can only be that we get the most interesting inclusions we can grab onto once justified. The Great Gonzales is one of these uncrowned kings, and I can only think that he remains folded and tucked away out of everyone's view because I am cursed to not like those who are widely accepted (see: Ghirahim). I take my broken record everywhere I go with me on this subject, and let's give a nice good listen this time around: Paper Mario brings more to the roster, to the soundtracks, to the stage-list, and to everything else. We could get most of those things without a character appearance, yes, but at that point why abstain from selecting the best option of the "Mario" selections when his absence would be most felt and most strange? And he can do this well not just because he is fun, but because he is more than capable of earning his keep representation-wise, as you so sagely point out here.

Also someone mentioned the possibility that he'd be hard to differentiate from Mario on the 3DS. I simply must disagree. His movements, proportions, dimensions, and moves would be quite distinct, don't you agree?

Thanks but no thanks. I'd rather have 25, really diverse and balanced characters than 100+ skins of the same character with 'slightly' different properties. BT3 was fun, but it lacked any real depth, game got boring once you realized EVERYONE had the same combos.

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CalumG

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At this point on our Smash adventure, my view can only be that we get the most interesting inclusions we can grab onto once justified. The Great Gonzales is one of these uncrowned kings, and I can only think that he remains folded and tucked away out of everyone's view because I am cursed to not like those who are widely accepted (see: Ghirahim). I take my broken record everywhere I go with me on this subject, and let's give a nice good listen this time around: Paper Mario brings more to the roster, to the soundtracks, to the stage-list, and to everything else. We could get most of those things without a character appearance, yes, but at that point why abstain from selecting the best option of the "Mario" selections when his absence would be most felt and most strange? And he can do this well not just because he is fun, but because he is more than capable of earning his keep representation-wise, as you so sagely point out here.
I do hope you're suggesting you're a fan of Ghirahim rather than suggesting he's widely accepted... because honestly, Ghirahim is not widely accepted at all. He has no business being a playable, and the vast majority of Smashboards knows it. :p
 

G0LD3N L0TUS

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Hey guys. Two questions for you all.

1) If you had to pick one of Ridley, K. Rool and Little Mac to not appear in Smash Bros. 4 in any form, which would it be?
2) What do you guys think about a roster competition? keybladeguy just finished his here, and I'm wondering if you guys would be cool with running the idea again, but with better judgement (probably a community poll and tournament bracket). There was something similar on Gamefaqs that ended like a week ago so you guys could check that out for what I'm thinking of.
1) Little Mac for sure. More so for lack of interest than anything else. The other two are the main antagonists (Ridley is debated) of their franchise, so they should at least make an appearance. However, I would definitely say Little Mac should still appear.

2) Sounds like constant arguing. I'M IN! But no, seriously, I would recommend making it a competition of popular vote, no arguments. I'd say each contestant could explain their thought process for building their roster and explain the characters chosen as well. Of coarse, that's just something I think would be more peaceful. I don't know how others would react to this idea of mine XD

Could I also get a link to the example you gave (the Gamefaqs thing)?
 

YoshiandToad

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Toad. Then Paper Mario or Bowser Jr. Then nobody. Then Waluigi. Then any other Mario character. Then Baby Daisy. Then Baby Daisy In Her Sports Outfit. :troll:
Glad to see I wasn't the only person that yelled "BABY DAISY?!?" when Mario Kart Wii's roster was revealed.

Mario priority?

What I hope for personally:
Toad > Paper Mario > Bowser Jr > Waluigi > No one > Everyone else (>Baby Daisy)

What I expect is more likely:
No one >>>> Toad = Bowser Jr > Doctor Mario> Waluigi > Paper Mario> Everyone else (>Baby Daisy) > Kamek > Koopalings

Or worst case scenario:
Nabbit > Doctor Mario >>>>>> No one >>>>>>Everyone else.

I seriously had a nightmare that Nabbit got in over Toad, Paper Mario, Bowser Jr and Waluigi.

I woke up in a cold sweat. Terrifying.
 

Starbound

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Kinda like this one Smash Bros. dream I had where it confirmed K. Rool, Dixie Kong, Palutena, Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario.

...which made me rather disappointed when I checked the Smash Dojo in the mornin'.
 

AEMehr

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Oh my god this pic of the day

that comment

it's killing me guys

what is sakurai alluding toooooooooooooo
 

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"Pic of the day. Out of the blue, here's a new stage--the Pyrosphere from Metroid: Other M! An enemy from Samus's past may appear at any second…"
- Sakurai
...

Stage hazard?
 

Starbound

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I think deep inside we're all hoping for playable Ridley but we're all slowly getting prepared if he's a stage hazard/background.
 

Sebz

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Oh god, Ridley's gpnna be a stage hazard...
-The hole on the wall: Ridley's probably gonna come out of there)
-The splash of lava (Maybe he falls and reemerges from it)
-Samus fighting bowser (Why show the Ridley fight stage and have Samus vs Bowser?=nail in the coffin)

I don't want it to be true but my logic is crushing my dreams.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Hold the phone...


The hole in the wall isn't the hole Ridley escaped through.

Check the end of the video...

The plot thickens...
 

Starbound

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If this is indeed a Ridley confirmation, then I think this game's roster is going to be incredible.

Ridley is the most wanted Nintendo newcomer.
Mega Man is the most wanted Third Party character.

Those are two of Sakurai's biggest cards on the table, and the only other ones would be K. Rool and Mewtwo. and as we know, Sakurai never plays all of his cards at the beginning of the game.
 

G0LD3N L0TUS

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If Ridley appears as a stage background or hazard, players will be furious with the tease, so I find that unlikely. That would leave Ridley as a playable character, a boss, or a separate villain altogether is the hazard/background. I think the latter is more probable.
 
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At this point on our Smash adventure, my view can only be that we get the most interesting inclusions we can grab onto once justified. The Great Gonzales is one of these uncrowned kings, and I can only think that he remains folded and tucked away out of everyone's view because I am cursed to not like those who are widely accepted (see: Ghirahim). I take my broken record everywhere I go with me on this subject, and let's give a nice good listen this time around: Paper Mario brings more to the roster, to the soundtracks, to the stage-list, and to everything else. We could get most of those things without a character appearance, yes, but at that point why abstain from selecting the best option of the "Mario" selections when his absence would be most felt and most strange? And he can do this well not just because he is fun, but because he is more than capable of earning his keep representation-wise, as you so sagely point out here.

Also someone mentioned the possibility that he'd be hard to differentiate from Mario on the 3DS. I simply must disagree. His movements, proportions, dimensions, and moves would be quite distinct, don't you agree?
Well, like I told N3ON, the whole 'representation' argument is how we justify it. I do agree that since Paper Mario can bring in stages, music, items and other things along with him, he becomes a more viable choice than the other two. I think that the majority of the fanbase will agree that Paper Mario's inclusion is justified once he makes it in, it's all a matter of what Sakurai opts for imo.

Oh, and whoever said that he'd be "hard to differentiate from Mario on the 3DS" is a moron. Their designs are clearly different. One is more simple, and will likely have less frames in all his movements. Hell, you'd be able to tell them appart simply on their moves alone. Are Mario and Wario hard to differentiate in Brawl? Will Wario be deconfirmed because of the 3DS's limitations...?

My only fear for Paper Mario is that it'd be another Toon Link dilemma. A case where the character COULD be a very interesting deviation from the one already in (I'm still sour about TL NOT having the Four Sword as a FS, no Leaf, no Hurricane Spin Attack, no Gust Jar, etc...), but ends up being a clone because, lol Sakurai.

Seriously, between SMRPG, and the Paper Mario series, PM has tons of moves he could do that regular Mario can't, most notably his Hammer and Super Jumps, but also the Paper abilities from ATYD, the Dimension abilities from SPM, and some of the moves he earns in SMRPG (haven't played PM 64 or Sticker Star).
 

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Today's pic has me all up in a tizzy.

This is very BIG news about a BIG topic with a BIG impact on a BIG community. As I said in the Daily Update thread, I'm not sure if this is helps confirm or deconfirm Ridz.
 

Glaciacott

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Believe me, a lot of people are going nuts over this.

I keep wavering between sheer anxiety that he's a stage hazard and joy and anticipation that the Ridley reveal will finally come.
 

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I hate to say it but... I think it's saying that Ridley's a stage hazard. I want him as much as the next guy/girl, but... evidence suggests otherwise.
 

Arteen

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Today's pic has me all up in a tizzy.

This is very BIG news about a BIG topic with a BIG impact on a BIG community. As I said in the Daily Update thread, I'm not sure if this is helps confirm or deconfirm Ridz.
There will be a BIG hole in my heart if Ridley is just a stage hazard.
 

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Ridley: playable at last or stage hazard. It's another edition of Sakurai trolls the Smash community!
Wait...what? Where the heck did the idea of a Stage hazard come from?

The fact Ridley MAY be confirmed soon.

Whether it's playable or stage hazard is the problem.
Wait...the new pic of the day is up soon? GODDAMN SITE! IT'S NOT UPDATING FAST ENOUGH FOR ME! :C Can someone show me a picture? Also...I highly doubt Sakurai would make Ridley of all people a stage hazard. If he is, it's not only basically ripping off the DOA: Dimensions stage of the same calibur, but it'd be a serious blow and would turn alot of people off from wanting to buy the product. Ridley's popularity is huge, I highly doubt Sakurai would want this game to take such a serious blow so early in development. Ridley's not only too important a character to make such a low role, but it's like taking the Boxing Ring stage and making Little Mac a stage hazard who comes in to beat the **** out of people. Sakurai may want to load a bullet, because if it does turn out to be a stage hazard, he's shot himself in the foot.
 

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I don't see why people are pretty much convinced he's stuck to being a stage hazard. That's a stupid move on Sakurai's part. He'll either be a boss, an assist trophy, or a playable character. Maybe nothing at all.
 

zauberdragon

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Sakurai you absolute tease. For those unable to see Miiverse the actual text is 'An enemy from Samus's past may appear at any second'. Now obviously that hints at Ridley and I've just looked up a list of enemies from Metroid Other M's pyrosphere (I own it but lack the drive to finish it) and he is there.

Still that doesn't mean he's unconfirmed. Sakurai the troll could always zoom the picture out a bit and reveal playable ridley gliding round the top. It also looks like Ridley will appear with his Other M design. Something I'm not keen on but at this stage I don't care as long as he's playable.

I've been looking on Miiverse and the Ridley haters are having an absolute field day. Just for that I really want Sakurai to prove them wrong. Please don't let the most ignorant section of the Smash fanbase win Sakurai, please.
 

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They have it up on the Miiverse Daily Picture thread The comment is on the last page.
 

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I just saw the picture...and to be honest, it doesn't look like that of a stage with a stage hazard other than that of Rising lava. However, I created a little something...


This is for the "JIC". Hold onto it, I just pray to Arceus almighty I won't have to show it again.
 

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Ridley: playable at last or stage hazard. It's another edition of Sakurai trolls the Smash community!
What I love about this update is that Sakurai effectively trolled both Ridley fans and Other M haters. He added an Other M stage where that infamous scene between Samus and Ridley took place.... AND teased that "an enemy from Samus's past" may appear as a stage hazard. Indeed a glorious chapter in the "Sakurai's How to Troll the Smash Community" book. :troll:
 

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...Is it normal to be shaking from fear of what this could be? Because I literally am right now. Is it too much to hope that Super Metroid Ridley is the playable character while Other M Ridley is the stage hazard...?
 

zauberdragon

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...Is it normal to be shaking from fear of what this could be? Because I literally am right now. Is it too much to hope that Super Metroid Ridley is the playable character while Other M Ridley is the stage hazard...?

I hope you're right. Though what you said about rising lava is interesting. Both Ridley and rising lava would be a bit overkill.

I've made the huge mistake of posting a pro Ridley comment on another forums. Within minutes I got the reply 'how can you make a moveset for someone who flies around so much'? Clearly Ridley doesn't have enough to work with while Wii Fit Trainer does.
 

shinhed-echi

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Ridley: playable at last or stage hazard. It's another edition of Sakurai trolls the Smash community!

Now watch as tomorrow's update is Kirby replacing someone else's head. XD


BTW, I don't recall lava rising in this stage right where you fight Ridley.

Sure, it gushes from outside the "arena", but not inside. At least not as a hazard. But There weren't any tidal Lava waves in norfair, so who knows?
 

zauberdragon

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Now watch as tomorrow's update is Kirby replacing someone else's head. XD

With that I had the horrible image of kirby with a volcano on his head and later an update confirming a new character saying 'rising lava burns the competition'! Sakurai posts that he really wanted to put a new Metroid character but couldn't think of any other than his favourite stage hazard, rising scolding liquid.
 
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