I can tell this is going to get off-topic pretty soon. Good to get this out before we get too deep into derp and get the thread closed.
So I've been on GameFAQs and checked out a thread. I noticed that there was yet another person claiming that a third-party character (this time Lloyd Irving) would take little effort to put in Smash. Immediately, I called him out for saying this because of not recognizing that Sakurai considers all third-party characters to be an excruciating effort (and I don't think that fitting in gets any easier just because you're a character from Namco, a third-party is still a third-party), sometimes even harder than the game itself. After finishing my post, I then realized something very important, that due to the unknown nature of third-parties, there are no likely third-party additions.
Us getting third-parties at all is more of a 50/50 deal. Granted, I do lean towards the side where third-party returns, but I've been putting Snake, Sonic, Mega Man and Layton at 50% or higher in my mind and honestly... that's way too much. It's difficult to determine what will happen with third-party characters, so I have to keep things in perspective. I especially came to realize this after thinking about who I felt was among the Top 20 most likely newcomer. I saw that I put Mega Man at #8 on my list and inwardly groan knowing that I was being too generous on his odds (I also should not be expecting third-parties at all, even if I do lean towards them returning). Mega Man will still appear on my Top 20 most likely newcomers, but he'll barely crack it. I'm not even sure if I'm even going to keep Layton around (I may just because I could still see him getting in and I can't think of anyone else that I don't already have on my Top 20 that I could see).
So for now, I'm removing all third-parties from my prediction roster (I still have the one from my previous prediction roster, I just renamed it as one with third-parties in it) and will not be expecting any until we get confirmed information whenever or not third-parties will be returning. There are reasons to believe why third-parties might return, but the fact is, no third-party characters should be treated as likely because of how little we truly know about third-parties.