Its been a very long time since I last did an analysis on the results to Shortie's poll. Hopefully, the results as they are now are the standing about where those character fit among the overall popularity with the Western fanbase (though with the big exception being Waluigi due to 4chan
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votes).
This is with a 1337 (
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) votes:
Mega Man (722)
Mewtwo (634)
Ridley (510)
Little Mac (498)
K. Rool (474)
Waluigi (418)
Isaac (400)
Palutena (460)
Ghirahim (343)
Roy (339)
Bowser Jr. (327)
Chrom (309)
Shulk (302)
Pac-Man (266)
Krystal (264)
Zoroark (249)
Geno (240)
Toad (212)
Takamaru (209)
Dixie Kong (187)
Saki (180)
Samurai Goroh (174)
Black Shadow (137)
Mona (137)
Waddle Dee (134)
Mega Man:
Definitely the Sonic of Smash 4. He is far away the most wanted character for Smash 4 and for good reason. He is probably the most iconic video game character that is a prospective newcomer for Smash 4 (aside from Pac-Man). Unlike nearly other third-party character out there (especially for modern Nintendo), the Mega Man brand is synonymous with Nintendo consoles. Classic Mega Man having two well receieved new "classic" games since Brawl's release definitely helped spike more interest for him. I can't think of a single character that could help bring as much hype to Smash 4 as Mega Man. I believe Mega Man will be the most wanted character overall for Smash 4 among Western Smash Bros. fans until his eventual confirmation.
Mewtwo:
There is a reason why The Pokemon Company is bringing him back in the spotlight. To this day Mewtwo is probably the most popular legendary Pokemon, and overall within the Top 5 most popular Pokemon of all time. Him being a playable character in Smash Bros. has helped the Smash Bros. fanbase be endeared with him, and kept him fresh in their memories after all these years (people still go back to Melee even with the release of Brawl). Aside from Mega Man, no other character out there challenges Mewtwo for requests for Smash 4 in the West. Internationally, Mewtwo is probably the most wanted character overall for Smash 4. Mewtwo being an iconic and popular character (and with little competition from other characters for his series) for Nintendo's most popular franchise aside from Mario explains why he ranks as high as he is.
Ridley:
No surprise he is the third highest in this poll. He has been a popularly requested character for Smash Bros. for over a decade, and is largely seen as the main antagonist for one of Nintendo's more popular franchises. Metroid is no Pokemon, nor is Ridley an iconic face for video games like Mega Man, which explains why he is not on the same level as Mega Man and Mewtwo. Ridley is probably the one true Nintendo newcomer that could bring the most hype to Smash 4. For this reason, I believe he has a very good chance of showing up at E3.
Little Mac:
Many people here are likely surprised to see him as high as he is (he is within 15 votes of Ridley even, and over 20 votes ahead of K. Rool), especially considering how quiet his fanbase is. However, it should not come as a surprise for a few reasons. One is that he was a popularly requested character after Brawl's unveil (he was seen as the next retro character inline after Pit). Secondly, the NES Punch-Out still remains among the most iconic and popular titles for the NES (in charts NES Punch-Out ranks among the Top 10 best selling Virtual Console games for the 3DS's eshop, and constantly ranks within the Top 20 each week for the Wii's Virtual Console shop). Couple that also with a successful and highly acclaimed Wii installment since Brawl's release (as well as highly regarded SNES installment that was also made readily available to a new generation thanks to the VC), and you have a recipe for a highly requested character for Smash 4. Despite he basically invisible fanbase, he probably could bring more hype and interest to Smash 4 than any other possible Nintendo newcomer aside Ridley (and maybe K. Rool).
K. Rool:
K. Rool is a big gun for sure due to being the main antagonist of Rare's immensely popular DK games (as well as for the lesser known Paon DK games). However, despite him being far away more requested and desired than any character not named Mega Man, Mewtwo, Ridley, or Little Mac, he is still a bit behind Ridley/Little Mac. The biggest reason for this is due to him basically having his last large profile role in a game in 1999 basically (although he has had significant roles in games since then, ie the Paon DK trilogy, none of those games have come close to the impact, popularity, or sales of DK64). He has been coasting on the popularity of Rare's DK games since then, of which, the popularity to which have helped to be renewed and stay alive thanks to GBA ports and Virtual Console re-releases. DK being among the more popular franchises from Nintendo certainly helps K. Rool having as large a fanbase as he does. Its impressive that he is as high as he is due to him not being as prominent as he used to be.
Waluigi:
Its 4chan's fault that Walugi is sixth in this poll. Looking at the pinned poll for this board, Waluigi is about around where Paper Mario is for popularity. I do think Waluigi is likely within the Top 15 most wanted characters for Smash 4, however, I strongly doubt he is more wanted than the likes of Isaac and Palutena (and probably Roy and Ghirahim as well). I would say he is true popularity is around where Bowser Jr's. is more or less (from other polls for Mario characters I have seen and done on other sites, they are usually very close together in terms of votes). Since the majority of people who avidly post on gaming sites (especially with the free time to post as much as they do) are people who grew up with the Nintendo 64/PS1 and now the GCN/PS2/XBOX, we now have a generation and very large contingent of gamers that sees Waluigi as a staple for the Mario series, so the argument that he is a "filler" character that just meant as a partner for Wario is holding less precedence as more and more people who grew up in previous gaming generations leave gaming, and as more and more people who grew up in the post-N64 era become involved. Despite Waluigi being a far less important character than Toad, Bowser Jr., and Paper Mario, he has been found to be "endearing" to larger portion of Smash Bros. and Mario fans since Brawl's release due to in part his personality, his meme status, and Brawl in the Family (of which contributed to his meme status).
Isaac:
Isaac is the true sixth-most highly requested character for Smash 4 in the West. I think if Golden Sun had a very highly regarded third installment Isaac would be on par with the likes of Ridley, Little Mac, and K. Rool for requests. Isaac is basically coasting on his popularity from two games released a decade ago. Its impressive that his popularity has held on for as a long as it has (I think Dark Dawn did more bad than good since at the very least it helped convince people that the GS series was still "relevant" and not dead). Isaac will likely move into the Top 5 in the West since basically all of the Top 5 characters for this poll are contenders for confirmation at E3 2013. I think like Little Mac and K. Rool, Isaac could have high popularity buoyed (or sustained) through the re-release of his games for the Virtual Console, which could introduce a new generation of fans for his games and help re-invigorate existing fans to support him.
Palutena:
Palutena is basically what would happen if a female character had all the stars line up for them (and then some, ie. Sakura's involvement with their source material). She is easily the most wanted "new" character this time (when I say "new" I mean a character that only began to have a large fanbase since Brawl's release). Palutena especially did not take off as a popular choice for Smash 4 until the release of Uprising. Palutena's endearing personality and banter with Pit, her overall high important to the Kid Icarus series, and Uprising squelching all of the arguments against her ("too big" and "can't fight" and "too strong" were arguments I have seen used against her prior to Uprising). There is no other female character that comes close to Palutena for requests this time, and probably there won't be any others that enter the Top 10 after Palutena is confirmed (though the possibility exists for Krystal if a new Star Fox game is made and released before Smash 4's arrival). Surprisingly, Palutena has a very quiet fanbase, especially for one of its size, which makes it even curious considering she is an attractive female character (whom tend to have very "loud" supporters in general).
Ghirahim:
Like Little Mac, Ghirahim's placement comes as a bit of a surprise to those looking at the results. This especially comes with the fact that Skyward Sword was more weakly received than any other 3D Zelda before it. However, Ghirahim's placement is both a combination of him having a very memorable role as well as the Zelda fanbase not being fractured at all this time. During pre-Brawl, the choice for a Zelda newcomer was split between Wind Waker Link, Midna, Tingle, Vaati, and Zant. Now its only Ghirahim with a notable fanbase. I think if Skyward Sword had a much better reception he would probably have been a bit behind where Isaac is now. The Zelda fanbase has the largest hardcore fanbase of any Nintendo series not named Pokemon, so its no surprise that a prominent new actor (even if he is likely to be a one-shot) from a more weakly received installment is as highly requested as he is.
Roy:
Roy is definitely the most wanted FE character for Smash 4. Being a popular character in Melee and Melee having staying power even after the release of Brawl explains why is as high as he is. Like Little Mac and Palutena, Roy surprisingly has a rather quiet fanbase despite its large size. His main contender for a spot being Chrom, of whom could just as easily end up as "semi-clone" as Roy, helps Roy a lot more than many people think (since a lot of the arguments that could be used against Roy, "could be a clone" or "another sword-user" could apply to Chrom as well). For many people, Roy was what introduced them to Fire Emblem, so he holds a special place in many Smash and Nintendo's fans hearts. In Japan his popularity is even more pronounced (being probably the most wanted Smash 4 newcomer after Mewtwo, and holds a lot of nostalgia among the FE fanbase there).
Bowser Jr.:
No surprise he is high up. He has been having important roles in main Mario games (platformers) ever since Sunshine. Like Waluigi, he has made regular roles in much of the non-RPG spinoffs as well. The Mario fanbase is extremely fractured as to who they want for a Mario newcomer this time (divided between Toad, Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, Waluigi, and Geno), so Bowser Jr. could be even higher on this poll (probably around where Isaac is) if there wasn't fan sectarianism.
Chrom:
Chrom is largely riding on the quality and acclaim for FE13. He is not as requested as Roy, but he is definitely the second most wanted FE character for Smash 4. I think Chrom probably would have been higher in this poll if he were anything other than a "blue-haired sword user". Chrom is also hurt a bit by being outshined a bit by Lucina and My Unit in FE13. I think Chrom is helped by being seen as "inevitable" due to being the latest lord, but hurt due to being seen as "bland". Overall, Roy vs. Chrom is a whole lot less interesting than the kind of dynamics going on during pre-Brawl (Marth vs. Roy vs. Ike vs. Lyn. vs. Hector vs. Sigurd vs. Micaiah vs. Ephraim).
Shulk:
I think Shulk is undergoing Takamaru-syndrome in this poll now. By Takamaru-syndrome, I mean initially he was very high within the poll at one point (even within the Top 10), but gets very little votes lately. I think Shulk slowing down for votes is largely due to how few people have played his source material. Xenoblade is probably the highest acclaimed RPG to come out Japan this generation, so its no surprise that he is as high as he is despite Xenoblade having been a relatively limited release in the West. I think "X" could help or hurt Shulk depending on the details about it. Overall, Shulk is probably the most wanted "new series" character after the likes of Little Mac and Isaac. However, seeing how much lower Shulk is shows that there is still more interest in expanding existing franchises for characters than giving unrepped series a slot.
Pac-Man:
Pac-Man's fanbase as a character for Smash 4 only really started to exist last year. Pac-Man despite being an iconic game character, suffers due to being seen as "bland". Despite this, he is overall within the Top 15 for Smash 4 in the West. Pac-Man's fanbase stands a good chance of collapsing if he is not shown at E3 2013 due to the expectation that if a Namco character were to happen (of which there are possibilities aside from Pac-Man), it would most likely happen at E3 2013. As has been mentioned before, Pac-Man's far lower position than Mega Man shows just how little interest there is for third-party newcomers even amongst the diminished pool of newcomers that Smash 4 has.
Krystal:
Krystal is certainly the second-most wanted female character in the West, though her standing is a farcry from her pre-Brawl days. She is doing much better than expected in light of that she has not been in a game for over six years, the very mixed reception/legacy of the post-64 games, and the belief that SF has more than enough characters already in Smash Bros.. I am not sure whether her doing better than the likes of Toad, Dixie Kong, and Samurai Goroh, is a statment that shows how well she has done, or whether a statement about how much those three are underperforming. She might creep up to Shulk (especially if he starts performing like Takamaru), but otherwise she will pretty much just pass up Pac-Man, and stay there (but have no behind characters pass her up).
Zoroark:
Another character that is performing more strongly than expected. Zoroark is probably the second-most wanted Pokemon newcomer for Smash Bros. (though that could change after the Genesect movie, perhaps), but he pales in comparison to Mewtwo. He has not been a big face to Pokemon since 2010, and even Lucario is being promoted more. Toad, DIxie Kong, and Samurai Goroh being behind this guy really shows they have deep problems.
Geno:
Geno is the male analogue to Krystal His hey-day was pre-Brawl, though he still has a fanbase that wants to see him for Smash 4 (though Bowser Jr., Paper Mario, and Waluigi are all more wanted than him). Again, Toad, Samurai Goroh, and Dixie Kong being lower than him shows big problems.
Toad:
Toad should be doing far better than he is. He is definitely the most iconic Mario character not yet playable in Smash Bros., so what gives? I think the best reason for this is due to two reasons, one is being seen as "bland", and the second is that much of the Smash Bros. and Nintendo fanbase nowadays is made up of people who grew up during the Nintendo 64 and GameCube generations of which Toad was only par with Waluigi, and took a backseat to Bowser Jr. and Paper Mario. Only with the Wii generation did Toad return to pre-N64 days prominence, however, I believe the people who have grown on the Wii have yet to begin avid video game fandom (and probably won't begin to show until some time after Smash 4's release). As such, Toad for many Mario and Nintendo fans is simply seen as another Waluigi, except with a less pronounced personality (or perhaps endearing one).
Takamaru:
It should come as no surprise that he is as low as he is. The majority of Western Nintendo fans only know him through Samurai Warriors 3 (a rather nice release in the West) and Nintendo Land. He is definitely no Pit (or a Little Mac when he was still considered a retro). Takamaru has the support he has largely from more hardcore Smash Bros. and Nintendo fans, who may know who he is. He is largely an unknown among most Western Nintendo fans. He makes sense for serious Smash Bros. speculators, though he will probably come as a surprise to most people when he is confirmed.
Dixie Kong:
Another character that is far lower than they probably should be. You would think that since K. Rool and Dixie Kong are in the same boat, and have had the same benefits (GBA re-releases and the Virtual Console re-releases) that they would be much closer together than they are. However, as mentioned with the Toad explanation, the largest faction existing for the plurality of avid Nintendo fans today is probably those who grew up with the Nintendo 64. Dixie Kong's last proimient role in the series was in 1997, so she has started to fall down the memory hole. I still think Dixie Kong will enjoy more support once K. Rool is confirmed, though I am starting to doubt whether she would even enter the Top 10 in the West. As low as Dixie Kong is, she is definitely the third-most wanted female newcomer in the West.
Saki:
Sin & Punishment being a popular Virtual Console game, and Saki being a cool Assist Trophy explains his position. Sin & Punishment 2 may have helped him a bit as well. However, those are both still rather niche releases. Saki had a rather vocal fanbase for much of pre-Smash 4, so its curious how he is fanbase is not bigger than it is here.
Samurai Goroh:
Goroh being as low as he is a bit surprsing. Its possible that the existence of Black Shadow as a viable choice is fragmenting the F-Zero fanbase (combining the votes for the two a "second F-Zero character" would be just behind Bowser Jr. in this poll). Goroh has always had more focus in Smash Bros. than any F-Zero character not name Captain Falcon, so him being definitely the most wanted F-Zero character should not come as a surprise. He is definitely more wanted than Black Shadow, however, there is still not much interest in him in general, and I can only see a few people putting up a stink if Falcon is again the lone playable character for F-Zero. F-Zero being on hiatus since 2004 is largely the reason why I think many Nintendo/Smash Bros fans are okay with Falcon being the sole F-Zero character again this time (heck, the F-Zero attraction in Nintendo Land is even called "Captain Falcon's Twisty Race).
Black Shadow:
He makes up the three bottom characters for this poll. He probably gets most of his popularity from being a character that could inherit Ganondorf's current moveset and his role in the F-Zero anime (particularly the meme from the epic Falcon Punch at the conclusion of it). I think Black Shadow missed his chance with Brawl, and he should have been the one to get Ganondorf's present moveset. Like Goroh, Black Shadow is hurt by the long hiatus for the F-Zero series.
Mona:
I think she is very likable amongst WarioWare fans and she (along with Jimmy T.) are the best choices for a second Wario character. However, there frankly is just not much interest in a second Wario character to begin with (see how poorly Captain Syrup is doing in the poll on this board). Not much there is to be said.
Waddle Dee:
He has the same problems as Toad. Return to Dream Land came out too late in the Wii's lifecycle, and far too few people played it for people to change their perspective about this character. If more people played Return to Dream Land, I think he would be doing much better than he is now (probably around where Takamaru is right now). Like with Wario, there just isn't any interest for a Kirby newcomer this time.