It's that time again. 1300~
1.Megaman [Capcom] 713
2.Mewtwo [Pokemon] 622
3.Ridley [ Metroid] 501
4.Little Mac [Punch Out] 489
5.King K. Rool [Donkey Kong] 465
6.Waluigi [Super Mario] 407
7.Isaac [Golden Sun] 390
8.Palutena [Kid Icarus] 353
9.Ghirahim [Legend Of Zelda] 339
10.Roy [Fire Emblem] 328
11.Bowser Junior [Super Mario] 315
12.Krom [Fire Emblem] 304
13.Shulk [Xenoblade] 300
14.Pac - Man [Namco] 259
15.Krystal [StarFox] 256
16.Zoroark [Pokemon] 242
17.Geno [Square Enix] 237
18.Takamaru [Murasame Castle] 207
19.Toad [Super Mario]205
20.Dixie Kong [Donkey Kong] 184
21.Saki [Sin & Punishment] 179
22.Samurai Goroh [F-Zero] 169
23.Mona [WarioWare] 135
24.Black Shadow [F-Zero] 135
25.Bandana Dee [Kirby] 132
Anyone wanna do the honors? Diddy? Kuma? Anyone really.
I'll give my thoughts I guess.
1.Megaman [Capcom] 713
Him being in first isn't too surprising. Pretty much every demographic and place online wants Mega Man, except for the Nintendo purists. What is surprising is how far ahead he is. I'm guessing he's the only new 3rd party character Sakurai will go to the effort of approaching a company for, not counting the Namco characters, as they're in a bit of a different situation. Or, if not the only, he'd be the first one Sakurai attempts to add. If he isn't unveiled at E3, I don't imagine his popularity will go anywhere, unless Sakurai makes some negative statement regarding his chances.
2.Mewtwo [Pokemon] 622
Again, not too surprising. All this Mewtwo talk and promotion will probably push him higher in the coming weeks, but still not above Mega Man. Probably the most likely character to be added (or technically re-added). Not much to say about him that hasn't already been said. Expecting him to place just as highly post-E3.
3.Ridley [ Metroid] 501
Another not surprising place. Now that Ridley is the most wanted true Nintendo newcomer in the west, and Sakurai has been made aware of the want for a playable Ridley, and given a very non-committal answer like normal, but not a negative answer, I'm definitely expecting him. I'm also guessing he'll be revealed at E3, but if he's not, there will probably be people questioning if he is to appear playable at all. His overall popularity will be interesting once we can compare a western poll to an eastern poll.
4.Little Mac [Punch Out] 489
Considering how iconic and popular Punch-Out is in the west, this isn't too surprising. What is surprising is, although a lot exists, we rarely hear very vocal Mac support. I'm pretty confident he'll be added, he's pretty much the biggest unrepresented IP left, that Sakurai hasn't dismissed. Some people say he won't get in because he's too bland... but that's nonsense.
I am surprised he's above K. Rool though. He definitely wouldn't be on a Japanese poll. In fact, he'd be pretty close to the bottom. Definite localized popularity, but enough that Sakurai will still take notice.
5.King K. Rool [Donkey Kong] 465
Makes sense, even if he hasn't had a very large role for a long time. Unless Sakurai is dead set on returning to adding Dixie, which I doubt, I'd say this guy has one of the best chances. Universal popularity, importance in a major series, plenty of potential, the question is not if he'll be revealed but when. I can honestly see him going either way, unlockability-wise, but I don't think he'll show up at E3. Would probably place fourth on a Japanese poll, behind Mewtwo, Roy, and Mega Man.
6.Waluigi [Super Mario] 407
Damn 4chan. Well, he's popular, but that's about it. I mean he has potential as well, but so do all the serious Mario newcomers. I wouldn't be upset if he was added, but I do think there are better choices. If he was added, it would be pretty much due to his odd amount of popularity, which he also has (maybe not to this extent) in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if the characters below him overtook him, as long as the poll stays away from Waluigi hotspots. Don't think he'll be at E3, don't think he'll be a starter. His popularity, even though it's strong, will waver if another Mario character is revealed (plus then he probably won't get in).
7.Isaac [Golden Sun] 390
I'm honestly very very surprised and delighted that Isaac has managed to maintain the amount of popularity he still has. I mean, the last game in his series that really left a noticeable impact was ten years ago, and he wasn't even the sole protagonist of it. I mean, he appeared in Brawl and DD since then, but really, his popularity is one of the longest lasting. I think Golden Sun is one of Nintendo's most notable franchises left (after Punch-Out), so I wouldn't be surprised if he was added, even with diminishing Japanese popularity, but at this point popularity, which he still manages to keep, would play a relatively large factor in his inclusion. I don't expect him to be at E3, but being a starter wouldn't be surprising. If Shulk is confirmed earlier than he is, I expect his popularity to take a hit.
8.Palutena [Kid Icarus] 353
She's made quite an impact for a supporting role in one game, but her popularity and accolades are pretty deserved. She's a great character with lots of potential, so her popularity is probably where is should be. The only thing I see keeping her from being added is Sakurai'w own humility, but I think she has enough in her favour that he will look past it. I'd say her E3 chances were really high, and she's probably one of the most likely starters. I don't see her popularity lowering. Maybe if we get another female revealed beforehand, but one, we probably won't, and two, it still wouldn't effect her chances.
9.Ghirahim [Legend Of Zelda] 339
I don't know why this guy has so much popularity. He's an interesting character, yeah, and he could definitely work in Smash, but he's still a flavour-of-the-month who's popularity will dissipate as soon as the next Zelda comes along. Needless to say, I think his chances are overrated, but the fact that he does have so much remaining popularity is a bit of a surprise. I'm guessing it came mostly from places other than Smashboards, who just see a cool new character and want them included.
10.Roy [Fire Emblem] 328
Yup. His popularity, especially in the west, may have derived from Smash, but the fact is he still has a lot of popularity. As a veteran, and a semi-clone, and the second most popular character in Japan, I think his chances are quite good, but if Sakurai goes down the recency route, that won't be too surprising either honestly. It's either him or Chrom. Or maybe a new character we don't know about, but I doubt it. Not much to say about him, he'll definitely be an unlockable if included, which means we probably won't know until towards the end if he's included. If Chrom is revealed, his popularity will take a nose dive.
11.Bowser Junior [Super Mario] 315
He may not be as popular as Waluigi, he may not be as iconic as Toad, but he's still a valid candidate with a good deal of popularity. If Sakurai dismisses Toad, and wants a character who actually plays a role in Mario games other than spin-offs, he'd probably be the choice to go with. He'd also work as a semi-clone, which could help his chances over the other Mario characters. Like the rest though, if another Mario character gets confirmed, his popularity will tank.
12.Krom [Fire Emblem] 304
The gap between him a Roy are becoming a bit more noticeable, but he wouldn't get in through popularity anyway. A decent character who definitely does have
some popularity and
some support, he'd probably only be adding if Sakurai goes to IS for suggestions. Right now he's experienced the heightened popularity that comes with Awakening, but it still doesn't match Roy's, so when the game moves out of the spotlight, he'll probably descend. Possible for a starter character, but if a semi-clone, unlikely.
13.Shulk [Xenoblade] 300
Really, considering Xenoblade isn't too well known in the west, Shulk's popularity is about right. It's higher in the east. Pretty likely for inclusion, though it's possible Sakurai doesn't think the series warrants it yet, especially if X turns out to be unrelated, but both of those situations are unlikely. Probably will get a popularity surge with more details about X, and is fairly likely to be a starter, though it really could go either way IMO.
14.Pac - Man [Namco] 259
This guy owes his popularity to Namco's involvement. Without him, he would hardly get brought up. That said, his chances are pretty good, I'd say he's the most likely Namco character, and while his popularity for Smash is due to Namco, his popularity in general is pretty deserved. His popularity probably won't change unless Sakurai makes a negative statment about a Namco character, or another Namco character does in fact get in, in which case, he'll probably slip back to close to where he originally was, though there will be some people who think more than one Namco character is a possibility. If he's included, pretty likely to be at E3. Sakurai could go with Mega Man, but one will be saved for later, and honestly I think it'd be the blue bomber.
15.Krystal [StarFox] 256
Yeah. This isn't too surprising. It's actually more surprising her popularity (for what it is) has remained this high, considering SF has gotten no new original games, Wolf got in Brawl over her, and Palutena has (deservedly) stolen many of the "we need a female" crowd. Popularity was always her biggest asset, and it still is, but that's all she really has now. And it's honestly not enough to likely get her in. Of course, if we get a new SF game announced at E3, it will most likely skyrocket. I don't think it will effect her chances though tbh, unless Sakurai has known about it for a while, and Krystal plays a relatively big role. If she does end up being included, I honestly do think she'd be a starter, no matter what, but... she's lucky she still has that popularity to cling to.
16.Zoroark [Pokemon] 242
Well, he was probably always a little more expected than wanted, but he did have some popularity. If the 6th gen doesn't provide a clear Smash-feasible character pretty soon, but GF still wants a Pokemon newcomer (a true newcomers), he probably still has the best chance. Though now GF would probably be satisfied with re-adding Mewtwo, considering he's back in promotion and everything. I'd say Zoroark's chances were shaky at best. His popularity is ready to topple whenever we get a 6th gen character feasible for Smash, that GF promotes. If included, probably as an unlockable. Actually does have more popularity in Japan than here, but not by a crazy amount.
17.Geno [Square Enix] 237
haha. Well, yeah, he's popular. But that's it. He's not likely. And he's not that popular anymore either. I'd say his only shot would be if Sakurai based the inclusions this time on Brawl-era popularity, and Square was willing to play ball. I highly doubt it though, Mega Man and Namco will probably take priority. His popularity will continue to decline...
18.Takamaru [Murasame Castle] 207
Honestly, pretty surprising he can manage this much in general, considering he's had one obscure game and been referenced a couple times. People might think this is low, but for who the character is, it's pretty high. Of course his chances are great, and he's likely the "revival" character Sakurai was hinting at, and will probably be at E3. Nintendo Land helped a lot to get his name out.
19.Toad [Super Mario]205
Poor Toad. He really does deserve inclusion, but I don't think he'll get it. He has very little Smash demand in Japan, and only mediocre demand here. If Sakurai hasn't thought about him as a playable character before, he likely still won't, and this amount of popularity probably won't change his mind if he already has. Of course, he has become more prominent again as of late, so Sakurai's opinion might be different now, but personally I don't think it's too likely. Though he definitely deserves it. Another Mario character being confirmed will rob his popularity, and likely his chance.
20.Dixie Kong [Donkey Kong] 184
Dixie's never been the most popular, and it's not too surprising considering she's only had like two major roles, both two decades ago. Her inclusion is likely based on Sakurai wanting to revisit his idea from Brawl, not popularity anyway. Though she also has decent popularity in Japan. Higher than Krystal. If K. Rool gets confirmed, her popularity will likely decrease, but it's possible we get both. A more recent appearance (outside of spin-offs) would help her chances though. Actually even a spin-off would help at this point.
21.Saki [Sin & Punishment] 179
Saki's a cool guy, he'd be a good character in Smash, but I think his chances are always being overrated. S&P has never been very successful, and even in Japan Saki isn't the most popular. People assume he has a good chance because of Sakurai bias... but Sakurai doesn't act on his bias very often. In any case, his popularity isn't surprising. I don't see him being included, though if he did make it I wouldn't complain.
22.Samurai Goroh [F-Zero] 169
Now, this here is a real shame. Personally I don't think Goroh will be included, but I thought that was mostly because of F-Zero being kinda dead right now, with no follow-up coming anytime soon, judging from Miyamoto's statements. Now it seems his overall lack of popularity, which I thought he had more of, will also negatively affect his chances. He really is the best choice for a 2nd F-Zero character, but I just don't see it this time around. Plus he doesn't have much popularity in Japan either, it was all stolen by Black Shadow.
23.Mona [WarioWare] 135
I honestly expected her to be last. Her being this high is surprising. If Sakurai wanted to add a WarioWare character, she'd be one of the more likely ones, but... even with Game & Wario, I don't think any of them really stand out enough. Though they would have some pretty entertaining movesets. I'd rather have Jimmy T. Interesting that she wasn't last though... it must be because she's female.
24.Black Shadow [F-Zero] 135
I don't really like Black Shadow, but I thought he'd be a little higher than this. Even with his notable (yet not too high) popularity in Japan, I still don't see him being included. I know a lot of people say this, but the only way I see him being added is if Ganondorf gets a new moveset and Sakurai wants to keep his old one somehow. Anyway, his popularity isn't going to be changing any time soon. If Goroh gets in, it'll be even lower (and vice versa).
25.Bandana Dee [Kirby] 132
I never really thought he was the most likely candidate, personally I think we have all we need from Kirby, but I did think he'd be a little higher than this. Odd. He would be in Japan, though not by much. If we were closer to Return to Dreamland, or there had been another recent or upcoming Kirby game, he'd probably be a bit higher, but although low, I don't think his chances are that great anyhow. Plus Sakurai was reluctant to add his own characters until they were amongst the most popular, I doubt he'll find this addition worthy, at this time at least.
So... that took longer than I thought. Overall the only surprises for me were how far ahead Mega Man is, Ghirahim, Goroh, Mona, and Bandana Dee. Waluigi would be as well if I hadn't known where that poll has been.
Isaac will never receive as much love as he deserves. =X
That's not how you spell Isaac.
We're totally friends now.