I posted this a while back, but I never really got any feedback on it, so thoughts would be appreciated. This is what I personally think as the "eligible" reps for Smash 4, meaning that they're the ones that I think have a decent to likely chance of making playability. I DO NOT think all of them will be playable, but that only about 45-55 of the characters on this list will be. If anyone OUTSIDE of this list appears however, I will be genuinely surprised.
Under the jump are my actual predictions and reasoning.
[COLLAPSE="Prediction Roster Here"]
Mario Series: Mario, Luigi, Peach, Bowser, Bowser Jr., Toad*
Zelda Series: Link, Impa* and Zelda, Ganondorf, Toon Link, Ghirahim
Pokemon Series: Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Mewtwo, Pokemon Trainer, Lucario*, Zoroark
Kirby Series: Kirby, Metaknight, King Dedede
Metroid Series: Samus/ZSS, Ridley
Starfox Series: Fox, Falco, Wolf
Donkey Kong Series: DK, Diddy, King K. Rool
Mario Spinoffs: Yoshi, Wario
F-Zero: Captain Falcon, Samurai Goroh
Mother: Ness, Lucas
Fire Emblem: Marth, Ike, Roy*, Chrom*
Kid Icarus: Pit, Palutena
"Modern" Series: Olimar, Little Mac, Isaac*, Starfy*, Shulk*, Saki*
Retros: Ice Climbers, Mr. Game and Watch, ROB, Takamaru
Third Parties: Snake, Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man
Characters with an * are characters I'm more iffy on than others, with explanations below.
Toad: Never been too sold on him myself, but his popularity more than anything could give him the boost to get into Smash 4.
Impa: Arguably the most controversial character on my roster, I personally believe that Sheik has a good possibility of becoming Impa, but recent developments, such as the reveal of the Sheik costume in TTT2, have caused me to waver on this front.
Lucario: Lucario, in my opinion, is the most likely character to get dropped from Brawl to Smash 4. With heavy competition from Mewtwo and Zoroark, it would not surprise me if he was dropped. However, I feel the more likely scenario is that all three will make the cut.
Roy and Chrom: Ah, yes. The eternal debate: Roy or Chrom. While it's nice to finally have an official name for Chrom, and he does have the latest FE title to his name, a lack of individuality could do him in if Sakurai decides to only use his basic skillset. Meanwhile, Roy is easily the most popularly requested character to return after Mewtwo himself, which alone could bump him into the playable slot. However, Roy has lack of relevance to deal with, as a simple DLC packet I don't feel is quite enough to make Roy "current", something Chrom has over his competitor. However, as with Mewtwo, Lucario, and Zoroark, I feel that having both is the most likely scenario, as four Fire Emblem characters is by no stretch undeserved, and Marth and Ike are going nowhere fast.
Isaac, Starfy, Saki, and Shulk: This is personally my most difficult call on the roster, as I feel that all four of these characters have a great shot at playability, but at the same time, I don't feel that all four will make it at the same time. When originally making this roster, I was not too convinced as to Saki's chances, hence why he's been left off this roster, but after hearing some more recent arguments towards his inclusion, I've become increasingly convinced that he also has a very good shot at obtaining an ever-elusive character slot. However, Saki has to contend with Isaac, Starfy, and Shulk for the spot as well, with Isaac coming off the popularity of Golden Sun, the relative recentness of Dark Dawn and his AT appearance, Starfy coming from possibly having been planned for Brawl and receiving a decently well performing internationally released game since Brawl, and with Shulk riding off of the popularity and exposure from Project Rainfall and having the benefit of being the most "modern" character in the section. As much as I'd love to see all four characters playable, I simply think that the roster is cramped enough as is, and that one or two will have to be cut, but doing so is ridiculously difficult. This is the one I'd prefer to have the most input on, if people do comment.
Overall, 53 slots, 57 characters total if Zelda/Impa, Samus/ZSS and PT's Pokemon are counted separately. Cutting Toad, Lucario, one of Roy and Chrom, and two of Isaac, Starfy, Shulk and Saki, this could be narrowed down to 49 slots and 53 characters. Both of these seem like doable numbers, and hopefully are decently agreed upon. Again, I'd love input, especially on the Saki/Starfy/Shulk/Isaac issue.[/COLLAPSE]
