I have little experience in the match-up, yet I can give various imputs in the match-ups.
Little Mac has super armor and slip counter to eat through several spacing attempts and can take a stock very early fron Rosalina
That said, I think that he is a pretty underrated character, but this match-up just isn't for him.
Neutral:
Back to the counter and super armor, Rosalina can Lunar Land her aerials in order to make any of his options, being it using super armor and rolling unsafe because of Rosalina being free in that moment, with grab being unuseable for obvious reasons, jab and the likes other fast attacks of him clash with Luma and expose him, I don't think I have to explain why Jolt Haymaker and Straight Lunge are not an option, as such, he's limited to rolling away wich is just the least punishable of his options, sidestepping is his only actually safe option, and not because of frame data but because it cannot be punished on reaction, in that case be careful because his jab comes out in frame one, as such you cannot frametrap his side step, you need a proper read for punishing it, otherwise start another Lunar Landing. His only truly safe options are perfect pivot, dance trotting or countering, as such he will at best reset the situation and deal with another Lunar Landing, at worst lose space in the first two cases, and in the third he 'll easily let Rosalina to change space control( if he is grounded he has invincibility frames while countering so it can't be punished, but he cannot trigger it on reaction but needs to read Rosalina, so you can Lunar Land another aerial and grab him instead).
The best aerial to Lunar Land from my experience is the Fair because of his upward trajectory.
This is about the neutral, just before jumping to other situations let's get everything straight:
Mac can Dash Attack, perfect pivot jab and something else to hit Rosalina before Rosalina hits the ground on reaction, punishing the hop.
However, Rosalina can short hop retreating Dair to prevent him to before rushing him with the Lunar Land.
He can counter the afermentioned Dair if done at short hop height, but will miss the attack if used at most heights, but he could take away Luma, so don't get too predictable with them and mix it up with fastfallen lunar landed empty hops.
In any case, Rosalina has a slight advantage in neutral and she is the factor determining how the neutral will become, Mac has to respect her actions everytime in order to gain the lead, though she isn't completely safe in neutral, making the neutral a situation based on mindgames, but with her fullhopped Dair, though she can hardly ever Lunar Land safely, Little Mac has a very hard time punishing it, meaning that the zone lost will hardly ever be taken back from Mac.
On a side note, launching Luma out in neutral isn't the best option at all.
Juggling:
Little Mac's air speed is faster than Rosalina's, so you'll need to fastfall and chase him to the ground before delivering the hit. In the air Little Mac has literally only two options in the air: air dodgge and counter. There could be Nair there since it comes out in frame two but his range is awful, so I don't think that at this point of the metagame anyone falls for that anymore, so I don't consider that as a valid option.
His air dodge has 15 frame airdodge as opposed to 22 every other character has, yet it's still easily punishable, though your USmash might be countered, I'm not entirely sure, it might not. Anyway, about air juggling, counter cannot be used against a well spaced Uair and is most likely to get punished both with and without the counter being triggered as long as you aren't too close to him, in the first case he will eat a Bair, at that point fastfall and continue the chase, leaving an air-dodge as his only option, that can be punished on reaction if you refuse to attack and mix a delayed Uair, leaving him vulnerable to the close hitbox of the Duo's Uair, wich is strongher than the farther one.
But since we cannot use the strongest hitbox of Uair without mixing up and taking the risk of a slip counter how can we safely K.O. him?
You can by spacing yourself so that by Shooting Luma, he'll end up under Little Mac, you must be grounded while Luma is slighty above the ground but not too much and facing Rosalina(such as by shorthopping and immediately fastfalling, then using the Neutral B before landing and FTilting to make Luma Face Rosalina)use the Uair if he continues to fall through Luma, in that case:
- If he airdodges Dair him with the landing lag;
- If he counters hit him with Rosa's USmash.
- Aerial attacks get outprioritized
If he tries to go away then Bair him, then:
- If he airdodges, FSmash him with Luma, tilted downward
- If he counters, FSmash with Rosalina
- Aerials get outprioritized
If in neutral heclashes against a Lunar Landing, or punish a roll/sidestep/counter/whatever he uses(punish a roll outward with boost grab), you can FThrow, DSmash, DTilt, FTilt and BThrow him in order to have him offstage.
If Little Mac recovers high, of course, you can juste juggle him to death, but if you need to take a stock early you can Fair/Bair him(you can also abuse the autolink angle of the Fair in order to drag him far offstage before the attack launches him), but they can be countered or air dodged.
If he recovers at ledge height via Jolt Haymaker you can Bair him with ease(in case you didn't know, his Side B loses his invincibility if aerial).
If he recovers below the ledge position your self(with perfect pivots if necessary) and charge a FSmash(you may need to tilt it down). His Tornado Uppecut cannot grab the ledge while the attack is going, but only after he enters the helpless state, as such you can just wait for him to go near the ledge and hit him.
As well, if he is close to the ledge and can counter to recover, just send Luma there, so that he'll eat a F/DSmash if he counters the Luma's hit, I would suggest to use the Jab cancelling so that he'll eventually be easily trapped in a rapid jab, eat Rosa's FSmash, airdodge through the Ledge and be vulnerable to a FSmash intercept(you may need to reposition yourself).
While edgeguarding Rosalina can convert a high edgeguard with a juggle, otherwise she can easily edgeguard him easily and without chance of being countered, as such the situation is nearly broken.
Being juggled:
The only way Little Mac can actually juggle her if she is in the air is by using his Up B, if he tries to ground juggle she can space him out with a Dair like she does in neutral (with the difference that it cannot be countered because of her being too high).
Little Mac has a single unsafe move to really capitalize on juggling, and Rosalina needs to be at a certain height, as such, he gets a single, useable yet punishable action based on mix-ups.
Recovering:
Trying to recover high with Launch Star is easily punishable so it's advisable to always sweetspot the ledge and using Rosalina's floatiness to be unpredictable while doing so. In order to not take a DSmash. If you menage to do it, usually a ledge jump Dair is your best option, though he can Tornado Uppercut in some cases (though it's hard for him to bypass the Dair) he may USmash but I'm pretty sure he can't.
Little Mac is at an advantage while edgeguarding, having a safe move to edgeguard her, and she needs to mix-up to dodge it, after sweetspotting the ledge, though, it'll be hard fo Little Mac to intercept her.
What if Luma dies?
Little Mac is definitely at an advantage without Luma, since we can no longer pressure him in neutral, pressure him for a K.O. After being juggled, escape the juggling close to the ground safely, finally guard breaking and to a lesser extent edgeguarding come at no easy task.
However, he has no safe way of getting rid of Luma safely, he'll always take some sort of punish for hitting Luma, and is likely to end a stock before Luma dies, unless he falls into a blast line, something that is hardly ever going to happen since he can hardly ever gain space without reading Rosalina, so Luma will most likely hit the ground.
What about the stages?
I would suggest to ban Final Destination ASAP since that is the legal stage where this match-up is most even, though what I wrote before, you may have noticed, didn't take in account platforms, so the match-up is "even" relatively to other stages where you can just platform camp 25/24h with Dair, the most unpredictable way of Little Mac for hitting you is with his Up B, so you can just hold shield until it breaks.
He has no way of reaching any of the platforms on Duck Hunt without expending his Up B if stalling wasn't banned and any Little Mac wouldn't ban the stage as soon as they can. If you are winning a set, you may gentleman to walk-offs, since they are the stage where Little Mac performs better, so you can try a fight there if you need some hard training, Wii Fit is the best for this.
Speaking of walk-offs, yes, he can use those of Castle Siege, especially those in the middle of trasformation, but good luck at using those of the second trasformation against the platform camping.
What about the customs?
Luma Shot vs. Luma Warp
Luma Warp can set up for pressure after juggling to take a stock more easily compared to Luma Shot, but Luma Shot can massively pressure Little Mac's edge options if spaced correctly, but that's not necessary for edgeguarding Little Mac.
Floaty Star Bit vs. Shooting Star Bit
Shooting Star Bits can be powershielded on reacttion if expected and, in some cases, he can dash counter them. On the other hand, Little Mac has hard time in bypassing a Floaty Star Bit, being forced to use Dash Counter.
Guardian Luma
Simply Little Mac has no projectiles or items, but you shouldn't use this move too much anyway.
So I would suggest the 2-2-1-3 set.
Neutral B
All of his variations are considered worthless, but apparently his Side B 2 can help him very slighty in recoverying.
Side B
I do have neither of the customs but from what I understood he has another super armor tool, but when using it to counter Lunar Landing you'll need to sidestep instead of shielding it. He can use it against any variation of the star bits, but gets more predictable against floaty star bits.
Up B
Apparently both customs are considered worthless, and they are, just don't get surprised if you fight one with them.
Down B:
Compact counter will be hard to punish when trying to get a kill after juggling or after recoverying, however it won't help nearly at all against the Dair, in neutral, and doesn't help his recovery at all, hampers his capacity to go against Floaty Star Bits.
Dash Counter makes Rosalina and Mac swap their position if he uses it against Lunar Landing, making it unable to be used to punish it at close range, it also helps against Floaty Star Bits and for recoverying and you need a different positioning while pressuring after a juggling.
Recapping everything:
Pros:
- The neutral
- Edgeguarding
- Juggling
- Very rare to lose Luma before losing a stock
- While being edgeguarded and juggled, she is at a less drastic disadvantage than she should...
Cons:
- ...but she is disadvantaged nevertheless
- If she loses Luma everything becomes harder.
Overall with and without customs I would rate this match-up 70:30 but I need some confirmation about what I said, especially for what matters customs, I also didn't understand if the grounded version of Slip Counter has invincibility during the entire counterattack animation or until the hitbox ends.
