Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Ura]

Just because there is a need doesnt mean it will happen. You were using the lack of any applicable examples as evidence which is illogical. If young link were dlc and decloned that would be evidence but he hasnt been. THERE ARE 0 EXAMPLES OF DLC DECLONING.

And then you jump to a completely different topic as evidence that has nothimg to do with what we are talking about even though your argument was that there was a precedent.
oh look a precedent you used.
You just fought against your own argument. Thanks.

So what about normal decloning then? While it wasn't a major change, still got the decloning treatment. For Sakurai to be all like "na imma just charge these noobs money for a direct clone" is just rather absurd. It can happen yes but why he would want to do something like that IDK.

Please, don't patronize me. My point was that it would be pretty stupid to have a full clone as DLC with another full clone in the game. The whole "you need a precedent or your wrong" thing people were trying to say lead me to using the 3rd party example. I don't really care if theirs not an established precedent and whether or not Sakurai goes about it IDK. I'm saying that it's stupid for what I mentioned above to happen as well as the direct clone issue I mentioned.

Give me evidence that the developers believe that Roy needs to be changed, and I'll change my mind.

Roy's "need" is all opinion. The fans say he needs to be changed, but we also said that we needed K. Rool, Ridley (well, some fans), and myriad other things. Unless the developers believe it too, it makes no difference.

Nobody here is capable of speaking on behalf of the devs. I'm speaking from a logical standpoint of how nonsensical it would be to have Roy as he was in Melee without any changes. Whether or not it happens IDK but logic would tell you that's the best way to go about the issue.

I mean, clone characters like Luigi, Falco, Ganon, etc. have gotten fleshed out over the installments. Roy was also planned for Brawl, so the team probably had some rough ideas for changes to his moveset, especially considering how the other clones like Falco and Ganon got changes.

Fast forward to Smash 4, Mewtwo doesn't need drastic changes since his moveset is already unique. Lucas is unique enough. At the very least I could see Roy being similar to Ganon/Falco.

Roy's situation is different because with DLC you're selling a single character as oppose to the whole roster. They might go the extra mile and de-clone Roy (or make him similar to Lucas) if they feel like Roy being a clone may not be as profitable and would like Roy to have a better selling point (still think he'd be profitable if he's still clone-ish). I don't know how likely that situation is, however.

In the end, I think there's too many factors to take into account here. We'll have to wait and see how things turn out.

This is exactly what i've been trying to say for so long lol.

 

[ChronoBound]

I still think Sakurai is most likely going to use whatever plans he had for Roy during Brawl. I think many here are underestimating Sakurai, we are questoniong the guy who went against the conventional wisdom of adding Chrom and is a big fan of Fire Emblem itself. I think Sakurai knows that Roy needs to be be Luigi-fied at least a bit. I mean many thought Rosalina and Bowser Jr. were going to be clones, yet they ended up being among the most inventive newcomers.

Have faith in Sakurai. I still think aside from Luigification, Sakurai might try to make Roy's A-moves a mix of Marth and Ike, and perhaps give him an unique special.

 

[Seanp12]

I still think Sakurai is most likely going to use whatever plans he had for Roy during Brawl. I think many here are underestimating Sakurai, we are questoniong the guy who went against the conventional wisdom of adding Chrom and is a big fan of Fire Emblem itself. I think Sakurai knows that Roy needs to be be Luigi-fied at least a bit. I mean many thought Rosalina and Bowser Jr. were going to be clones, yet they ended up being among the most inventive newcomers.

Have faith in Sakurai. I still think aside from Luigification, Sakurai might try to make Roy's A-moves a mix of Marth and Ike, and perhaps give him an unique special.

I lost faith in Sakurai after the Ridley fiasco. I still admire him and I enjoy being surprised by him, but I've been both pleasantly and unpleasantly surprised by him. K. Rool and Dixie fans can tell you that the general attitude towards him has become much more cynical. While I highly doubt bias had anything to do with it, you can't deny that Fire Emblem fans have had it really good.

And I get the feeling,@ Ura , you think that we're trying to say it's impossible for Roy to be luigified. We're not. We're saying that it's unlikely because the trends go against it rather than for it. I'd give it a 40% chance. It's definitely possible, particularly if he goes off of any planned changes from Brawl, but so far the trends aren't in favor. If you can show precedent, I would change it up to 40%.

 

[A10theHero]

We should make it a rule that before you reply to someone's opinion, you have to give them a compliment.

Spoiler

And if you try to be a smart ass with it, we will publicly shame you.

 

[Ura]

Well if theirs any character that has taken the most crap in Smash overall, it would be Waluigi. I get the feeling that Ridley was a strong contender for being in the game though his "size" issue is preventing his inclusion in the game. Waluigi on the other hand wasn't even considered in the slightest. He's berated for not being in a main series Mario game and appreantly Sakurai is one of those people. He openly mocked Waluigi's fans in one of his Miiverse posts. Roy and Ridley are contenders for this yes but Waluigi is by far the character that takes the most flak from people for really stupid reasons.

As for Roy, we'll see. Worst case scenario, he'll have minor changes like Falco and Ganondorf though i'm really hoping for a good 3/5ths of his moveset to be revamped.

 

[ChronoBound]

Okay, I realize I have not put in a vote yet. I would have a lot more to say on this, but I really don't have a lot of time.

Likelihood - 80%.

The reason I give this rating as follows,
- Planned for Brawl
- Popularly requested worldwide. Among the Top 10 most wanted DLC characters amongst Western Smash fans, among the Top 3 among Japanese Smash fans.
- Obviously the internal files in the latest update.

He is by no means confirmed and I put his probability actually the same as Wolf, but things are definitely look good in his favor. Hopefully a confirmation comes in either June or July.

Want - 95%

I have wanted Roy to return in Smash Bros. for over seven years. He was one of my two mains in both Melee and Project M. He helped get me into Fire Emblem, and finally FE6 is one of my favorite games in the FE series. There is only one character that would get me more hyped than Roy's return in Smash Bros.

I would like to say more, but I guess I am pressed for time since today's vote is closing.

Ridley - 20% He has been my most wanted newcomer for Smash Bros. ever since the release of the first installment, but Sakurai's statement against him and role as a boss/stage hazard rules him out as DLC for Smash 4. Hopefully Project M picks up this crown jewel of a newcomer.

Nominate -
x 3 Ivysaur
x 2 Squirtle

 

[BKupa666]

Roy:

Chance - 99%
Barring something completely paradigm-shifting, he's coming in the next few months. Probably at that Fire Emblem concert Sakurai is attending.

Want - 5%
Why oh why is he being planned seemingly before Wolf? Also, not a fan of his Melee moveset. If Mewtwo of all characters didn't get changed, why on earth do people think Roy will? It honestly comes off as straw-grasping to portray the character in a more palatable light.

Ridley Prediction - 4.5%

Nominate Chorus Kids/Men x5

 

[Seanp12]

Don't be disappointed if you just get Melee Roy, though. Otherwise you'll end up like us Ridley fans: bitter and crotchety misers. Sorta like Cranky Kong.

 

[ChronoBound]

Want - 5%
Why oh why is he being planned seemingly before Wolf? Also, not a fan of his Melee moveset. If Mewtwo of all characters didn't get changed, why on earth do people think Roy will?

Mewtwo didn't need to be changed. Mewtwo retained the exact same moveset as he had in Melee in Project M, yet he is top tier in that game. Mewtwo's problems was his stats, not his moveset, and Sakurai and Project M correctly identified that the focus of his return should be the buffs he needed, not a moveset overhaul.

Also, Roy is not stealing Wolf's shot at returning. I think Wolf's return is coinciding with whenever Star Fox Wii U ends up releasing.

 

[Ura]

I also forgot to mention something else. Seeing as Roy was planned in Brawl and with the game not having any full clones in the game, would it be safe to say that if Sakurai was going to use his proposed Brawl Roy moveset as a basis for Sm4sH that he'll end up as a semi-clone at worst? Just an idea people.

Also, Roy is not stealing Wolf's shot at returning. I think Wolf's return is coinciding with whenever Star Fox Wii U ends up releasing.

TFW is with the logic of "this character is stealing this characters slot". That's the thing that aggravates me the most about this fanbase. Wolf is bound to return to the series eventually so take a deep breath.

 

[Delzethin]

Some people also liked having a Fiery Marth with power at the hilt. People also liked having a Ness semi-clone, which is the main reason why we have Lucas back, and is very likely the reason why Roy will likely be back.

Furthermore, given what I've read, there are just as many people who hate Falcondorf's moveset as love it. Those people have been flat-out ignored for two games running, and they're usually Zelda fans, which comprise one of the largest Nintendo fanbases. Fire Emblem may be up-and-coming, but it's still not Zelda.

In short, I still see no reason why Roy's situation is significantly different from those of Ganondorf and Lucas.

A good point. They had extra time to tweak Ganondorf if they felt the need to. They could've given him a form of Dead Man's Volley. They could've had him materialize the Anti-Master Sword for an attack or two. Instead, they chose to keep him a semi-clone of Captain Falcon, and based on what we've heard from them, they didn't want to alienate the people who'd been using that style of Ganondorf for two games. They also kept Mewtwo's moveset intact from Melee despite having so many more Pokémon moves to choose from, some that'd arguably make more sense than what they stuck him with.

The odds point to Roy still being a full clone of Marth if he gets in...which wouldn't make many people happy.

but things have been leaked out before.As @oni333 ganondorf was in a commerical and they edited him out.As will the great cave offensive being leaked on facebook WAY before the stage was annouced(like a 1-3 weeks) just for it to be taken dwon.Let's not forget the ESRB leak which they toke down quickly than snap my fingers.I don't see why they wouldn't remove the files

If anything, the fact that the files weren't removed in the first patch after they were found might imply they have no current plans for it anyway. Maybe it was leftover junk data that piggybacked onto early Mewtwo data that was abandoned early on when it became clear they wouldn't have time to finish Mewtwo, but wasn't deleted when they went back and finished Mewtwo once they went forward with DLC.

More likely than not, though, it doesn't mean anything.

TFW is with the logic of "this character is stealing this characters slot". That's the thing that aggravates me the most about this fanbase.

As much as I disagree with you on other stuff...I'm with you on that one. The whole character slot argument is as big of BS as the "reps" argument.

 

[ChronoBound]

I also forgot to mention something else. Seeing as Roy was planned in Brawl and with the game not having any full clones in the game, would it be safe to say that if Sakurai was going to use his proposed Brawl Roy moveset as a basis for Sm4sH that he'll end up as a semi-clone at worst? Just an idea people.

TFW is with the logic of "this character is stealing this characters slot". That's the thing that aggravates me the most about this fanbase.

Roy almost certainly will be Luigi-fied to the extent that Falco and Ganondorf are in Brawl, whether Sakurai goes further is anyone's guess though.

 

[Seanp12]

I also forgot to mention something else. Seeing as Roy was planned in Brawl and with the game not having any full clones in the game, would it be safe to say that if Sakurai was going to use his proposed Brawl Roy moveset as a basis for Sm4sH that he'll end up as a semi-clone at worst? Just an idea people.

ChronoBound actually mentioned it. It's definitely a possibility, but it has no clear advantage over any other possibility.

I wouldn't bet on him changing though. It's definitely preferable, but calling it a sure thing is asking for disappointment. Keep your caveats in mind.

 

[Ura]

Roy almost certainly will be Luigi-fied to the extent that Falco and Ganondorf are in Brawl, whether Sakurai goes further is anyone's guess though.

I think that's a given almost really. Like I said many times before, were decloned to be semi-clones. For to get the crappy end of the stick and not be changed at all is just illogical.

ChronoBound actually mentioned it. It's definitely a possibility, but it has no clear advantage over any other possibility.

Personally, I think him being semi-cloned is the more likely route then him being a full clone or fully decloned but that's just me.

 

[A10theHero]

I think that's a given almost really. Like I said many times before, were decloned to be semi-clones. For to get the crappy end of the stick and not be changed at all is just illogical.

Sakurai makes illogical decisions all the time. Nobody can say for certain.

 

[Seanp12]

I think that's a given almost really. Like I said many times before, were decloned to be semi-clones. For to get the crappy end of the stick and not be changed at all is just illogical.

It wouldn't be the first time he did something that didn't make sense.

Besides, Falco and Ganondorf weren't DLC. They were changed between games. Like with assist trophies potentially becoming characters, we can't know until it happens. Until it does, to call it a sure thing is setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[AirshBornely]

I really was wanting to sit this one out, but..what the heck.

Chances: 80%
Its been pretty much said already. Don't feel like repeating.

Want: %50
Mostly indifferent. I wouldn't mind having Roy, even if he had the same specials as the ones in Melee, but I hope he at least has some different attacks. (charges, tilts, etc.) Though, I'm not expecting it.

Nomination: Zael 5x

 

[Ura]

Still, you can't brush aside the fact that theirs a lot of good reasons for Roy to be decloned to a semi-clone level at best.

- A good number of Roy fans wanting him to be decloned along with other people not being pleased with a fully cloned Roy
- The case with Lucina
- Falco and Ganondorf being changed for free
- Him being planned for Brawl, a game that had no full clones in it

While it's not a given it will happen, theirs a good reason for it to happen. I can't see Sakurai not taking these things in to consideration in making Sm4sH Roy.

 

[Aetheri]

Remember people all melee clones were upgraded in Brawl both Roy and Dr. Mario were cut because of time...
Dr. Mario was a last minute addon for this game hence why his moveset wasn't upgraded...Roy most likely had his moveset upgraded a bit in Brawl before getting cut...Mewtwo wasn't a clone so no reason to change his moveset...

 

[IceBreakerXY]

If anything, the fact that the files weren't removed in the first patch after they were found might imply they have no current plans for it anyway. Maybe it was leftover junk data that piggybacked onto early Mewtwo data that was abandoned early on when it became clear they wouldn't have time to finish Mewtwo, but wasn't deleted when they went back and finished Mewtwo once they went forward with DLC.

bite myself in the ass didn't i.At the end of the day it all comes down to what sakurai wants and man this E3 is gonna be tense

 

[Seanp12]

Still, you can't brush aside the fact that theirs a lot of good reasons for Roy to be decloned to a semi-clone level at best.

- A good number of Roy fans wanting him to be decloned along with other people not being pleased with a fully cloned Roy
- The case with Lucina
- Falco and Ganondorf being changed for free
- Him being planned for Brawl, a game that had no full clones in it

While it's not a given it will happen, theirs a good reason for it to happen. I can't see Sakurai not taking these things in to consideration in making Sm4sH Roy.

-A good number of fans want a lot of things. It guarantees nothing. Sometimes even huge numbers of fans don't matter. See K. Rool, Ridley, etc.
-Lucina is unprecedented. We don't know if that makes a difference or not yet.
-They weren't changed for free. They came as part of a sixty dollar game.
-We don't know how far along they got or if they even plan on using any ideas from Brawl.

I can see Sakurai going either way. That last point is definitely the best one, but it's the only one that doesn't have any major issues.

 

[BKupa666]

Mewtwo didn't need to be changed. Mewtwo retained the exact same moveset as he had in Melee in Project M, yet he is top tier in that game. Mewtwo's problems was his stats, not his moveset, and Sakurai and Project M correctly identified that the focus of his return should be the buffs he needed, not a moveset overhaul.

Also, Roy is not stealing Wolf's shot at returning. I think Wolf's return is coinciding with whenever Star Fox Wii U ends up releasing.

Could happen, but when so much of his support hinges on fond Melee memories, including Sakurai's recollection of "meeting a black man who said 'Roy was designed perfectly for him,'" I'm skeptical. It's not as though new moves couldn't have solved Mewtwo's problems as well, since there's more than one way to skin a cat or balance a character.

 

[ChronoBound]

Could happen, but when so much of his support hinges on fond Melee memories, including Sakurai's recollection of "meeting a black man who said 'Roy was designed perfectly for him,'" I'm skeptical.r.

You know that FE6 and Roy are well-liked among Japanese FE fans right. FE6 is the fourth highest selling game in the series in Japan, of a series with 13 games.

It would be like saying K. Rool does not deserve to come in because he has not been a villain in a mainline DK title since 1999.

 

[ES. Dinah]

Roy

Chances: 90%

The leak says it all. I am holding him in high regard because of the leak. I want him in so badly. He was my main in melee and I really enjoyed his style.

Want: 100%

Roy is our boy and he has been leaked (kinda) because of stage music. He deserves a really high want rate.

Nominations: KOS-MOSX5.

 

[Seanp12]

You know that FE6 and Roy are well-liked among Japanese FE fans right. FE6 is the fourth highest selling game in the series in Japan, of a series with 13 games.

It would be like saying K. Rool does not deserve to come in because he has not been a villain in a mainline DK title since 1999.

But do those fans explicitly want a different Roy? Many Roy fans I've come across don't care. They're happy as long as he's in, clone or otherwise. And those fans who specifically want Melee Roy have influence too.

And then there's that whole problem of Sakurai ignoring/overlooking huge fanbases anyway, like K. Rool.

 

[ChronoBound]

But do those fans explicitly want a different Roy? Many Roy fans I've come across don't care. They're happy as long as he's in, clone or otherwise. And those fans who specifically want Melee Roy have influence too.

Sakurai is not an idiot. Luigi-fication is not going to alienate anyone.

 

[Seanp12]

Sakurai is not an idiot. Luigi-fication is not going to alienate anyone.

No, it's not. But does he think it's necessary? He didn't think that the costume clones would create trouble, but most of the fanbase could see it coming as soon as the leaks came out.

 

[Ura]

-A good number of fans want a lot of things. It guarantees nothing. Sometimes even huge numbers of fans don't matter. See K. Rool, Ridley, etc.
-Lucina is unprecedented. We don't know if that makes a difference or not yet.
-They weren't changed for free. They came as part of a sixty dollar game.
-We don't know how far along they got or if they even plan on using any ideas from Brawl.

I can see Sakurai going either way. That last point is definitely the best one, but it's the only one that doesn't have any major issues.

- DLC is different from the initial roster. Popularity isn't as big of a deal as it was in the initial phase.
- Her being a full clone and Melee Roy being a full clone is something Sakurai has to at least consider
- Sakurai wasn't lazy for those 2 characters and took the time to make them semi-clones. That's sorta the point here.
- With the amount of characters in that list and Roy (and Mewtwo) having a unique victory theme, I don't think it's not fair to say that he could have gotten in the game as a semi-clone like the rest of the other clones. If Sakurai had that in mind for Brawl, I don't see why he wouldn't do it for Sm4sH really.

Sakurai is not an idiot. Luigi-fication is not going to alienate anyone.

This. Fans that wanted Roy back from Melee would still be happy to see him as a semi-clone or even fully decloned.

 

[Zerp]

Is there any proof that Roy would have been Luigified in Brawl? I'm not doubting you, but I've never heard this before, so I'd like to know if there's any proof or strong evidence.

 

[ChronoBound]

No, it's not. But does he think it's necessary? He didn't think that the costume clones would create trouble, but most of the fanbase could see it coming as soon as the leaks came out.

The only costume turned character people cried about was Dark Pit.

 

[Seanp12]

- DLC is different from the initial roster. Popularity isn't as big of a deal as it was in the initial phase.
- Her being a full clone and Melee Roy being a full clone is something Sakurai has to at least consider
- Sakurai wasn't lazy for those 2 characters and took the time to make them semi-clones. That's sorta the point here.
- With the amount of characters in that list and Roy (and Mewtwo) having a unique victory theme, I don't think it's not fair to say that he could have gotten in the game as a semi-clone like the rest of the other clones. If Sakurai had that in mind for Brawl, I don't see why he wouldn't do it for Sm4sH really.

-Considering that they have a fan ballot, I'd say that popularity is actually a much bigger deal. But you're right, DLC is different. The only precedents we have on it are Mewtwo and Lucas, which remain unchanged.
-He doesn't have to consider anything unless the higher-ups at Nintendo tell him to.
-Who's to say that the changes to them weren't last minute tweaks like what happened to the costume clones?
-Dark Pit has his own victory theme, but he was a last minute costume clone.

@ ChronoBound : I witnessed loads of salt over all three costume clones. Lucina and DP had it worst for inflating their series' reps to disproportionate amounts. And we still don't know Sakurai's state of mind towards Melee Roy.

 

[ChronoBound]

@ ChronoBound : I witnessed loads of salt over all three costume clones. Lucina and DP had it worst for inflating their series' reps to disproportionate amounts.

Lucina definitely is not as bashed as she should be. If a male FE character was made into a Marth clone whose sole difference was the lack of a tipper, he would be just as unpopular as Dark Pit. Muh waifu goes a long way for a lot more people than it should.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Is there any proof that Roy would have been Luigified in Brawl? I'm not doubting you, but I've never heard this before, so I'd like to know if there's any proof or strong evidence.

If there's one thing, it's Ike's Eruption that seemingly came out of nowhere. And also Marth has had his Neutral B changed. If nothing else, Roy keeping his Neutral B from Melee would make him pretty similar to Dr.Mario, but seeing as Roy has been chosen outside of the ballot to be added as DLC, and Dr.Mario was a late addition in Smash 4, I see no reasons for Sakurai not to give Roy more than that. I think his Specials will stay mostly the same as in Melee, maybe a new Side B though. But I think he'll see quite some changes in his normals.

 

[DaUsername]

:
Chance: 99% - Yeah.
Want 99% - #BringBackTheVeterans

Ridley Prediction: 4%

Nominations: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

I'm trying to figure out how on earth you guys managed to use up about 6 pages of this thread even though there was only just under 90 ratings. Honestly you guys have been carrying this debate on WAY too long and it sometimes even bordered on arguing. I feel that the official Roy discussion thread would have been a better platform for most of this debating. Honestly the fact that we're rating Ridley tomorrow scares the heck out of me as know it will probably be even worse then.

Roy
Chance: 100% - I simply couldn't think of any reason to doubt him at this point.
Want: 60% - It's always nice to have a veteran back.

Ridley prediction: unlucky 13%

Nominations: DLC music x5

DAY OVER
DEBATE OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE ROY'S EXTREMELY HIGH RESULTS​

 

[BKupa666]

You know that FE6 and Roy are well-liked among Japanese FE fans right. FE6 is the fourth highest selling game in the series in Japan, of a series with 13 games.

It would be like saying K. Rool does not deserve to come in because he has not been a villain in a mainline DK title since 1999.

You're the one talking "deserves," not me. If K. Rool had appeared in Melee, gotten cut and never appeared as main villain again, his support would hinge on fond Melee memories as well.

And now, his day is over, so I have nothing more to say on the matter.

 

[ChronoBound]

You're the one talking "deserves," not me. If K. Rool had appeared in Melee, gotten cut and never appeared as main villain again, his support would hinge on fond Melee memories as well.

Fond memories are what drives a lot of K. Rool's fanbase buddy.

 

[JBRPG]

I'm trying to figure out how on earth you guys managed to use up about 6 pages of this thread even though there was only just under 90 ratings. Honestly you guys have been carrying this debate on WAY too long and it sometimes even bordered on arguing. I feel that the official Roy discussion thread would have been a better platform for most of this debating. Honestly the fact that we're rating Ridley tomorrow scares the heck out of me as know it will probably be even worse then.

Roy
Chance: 100% - I simply couldn't think of any reason to doubt him at this point.
Want: 60% - It's always nice to have a veteran back.

Ridley prediction: unlucky 13%

Nominations: DLC music x5

DAY OVER
DEBATE OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE ROY'S EXTREMELY HIGH RESULTS​

I agree with your stance because with Roy's sound files present in 3DS and we are dealing with a popular but controversial character Ridley, we will have to do our best to keep the debate to Ridley in Ridley character thread or visit BaganSmashBros's Project M Ridley page. We will do our best to do the ratings for Ridley.

 

[Zerp]

Oh boy, Ridley's next?

Spoiler

I can already see the flame wars . I hope we can stay civil, but I doubt that will be the case.

 

[BKupa666]

Fond memories are what drives a lot of K. Rool's fanbase buddy.

Him and every other fanbase, but that's not the point. Roy and every other cut past veteran now receive support not to be given a Smash incarnation like a newcomer, but for the return of their old Smash incarnation specifically. That's not going to be jettisoned by Sakurai for Roy alone just because it'll hurt online Roy fans' feelings when fans throw hate at the character for a few days max. about him being a second Marth derivative.