Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[sogeki]

WONDER RED
CHANCE: 26.31%
WANT: 46.82%​

Wonder Red managed to pull off a decent score, maybe he can overcome the odds. Next up we're rating our first concept: can an AT, Pokeball, Stage hazard, or Smash Run enemy really become playable? Please rate how likely you think an NPC is to become playable.

No predictions?

 

[colder_than_ice]

No predictions?

Edited, I needed to go back and check to see who was at the top.

 

[JBRPG]

Concept: can an AT, Pokeball, Stage hazard, or Smash Run enemy really become playable?

Chance: 0.05%

I do not see the likelihood of any lesser-known or role-reduced entities becoming fighters, but some AT's might make the cut if their movesets are more fleshed out while fulfilling Sakurai's criteria

Want: 10%

Only for previously released AT's with fleshed out movesets. Otherwise I would not care.

Nomination:

Bayonetta x 5

 

[sogeki]

NPC Becoming a playable character concept:
15%.
Sorry guys, but I can't see this happening. Sure, Sakurai does change his mind a lot, but he made some of these characters assit trophies, or pokeballs for a reason. They don't have enough potential.

Want: 90%. Okay, not all of them don't have enough potential. You have Ridley, Waluigi, Zoroark, Girahim, and so many more.

Henry Fleming Prediction: 11%. I just can't see it happening since he was an actual person in real life.

Nominations: Bayonetta x5

 

[Moydow]

Henry Fleming Prediction: 11%. I just can't see it happening since he was an actual person in real life.

Not quite.

--------------------

Chance: 0%
I don't see this one happening at all. Assist trophy status seems to be where characters that Sakurai doesn't see as being viable, or he doesn't feel would be popular/recognisable enough (e.g. Takamaru), go.

Want: 55%
There are a few characters in this bracket I'd like to see be made playable - Takamaru and Chrom among them.

Prediction: Henry Fleming: 12.75%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Deleted member]

Promoted NPC's

Chance: 5%

I can imagine NPC's such as Assist Trophies, Pokeballs, or even Chrom or Ridley receiving a promotion in Smash 5. In Smash 4 however, their roles seem to have been set in stone for...reasons (Ridley is too big, Chrom would have been a typical swordsman, etc.). I'm not giving an absolute zero rating because there is the possibility that certain Assist Trophies and Pokeballs were originally planned to be playable and their movesets happen to be incomplete.

Want: 100%

Admittedly, I would enjoy playing as everyone from Mega Man's Final Smash, particularly X and MegaMan Volnutt.

Prediction: Henry Fleming - 2% 25%

And I thought Bubsy was scraped from the bottom of the barrel. Let's rate fictional interpretations of real life historical figures!

EDIT: Whoops! Wrong Henry Fleming!

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5 - "Die, monster! You don't belong in this world!"
Whoops! That's Richter's line, not Simon's.

 

[Senselessbreak]

Playable NPC

Chance: 3%

Don't have much to say but its not going to happen. Maybe for Smash 5.

Want: 50%

Would love to see Chrom or Ridley playable....or Dunban even!!

Fleming: 10%

Nominate Chorus Kids x 5

 

[sogeki]

Not quite.

--------------------

Chance: 0%
I don't see this one happening at all. Assist trophy status seems to be where characters that Sakurai doesn't see as being viable, or he doesn't feel would be popular/recognisable enough (e.g. Takamaru), go.

Want: 55%
There are a few characters in this bracket I'd like to see be made playable - Takamaru and Chrom among them.

Prediction: Henry Fleming: 12.75%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5

What do you mean by not quite?

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Sigh, here we go with this subject again....

Chance: 12%

Let's just face it, do you guys seriously expect Sakurai's team to give a character another chance when they already have a predetermined role? Assist Trophies are already a part of the game's code and there's no way to make any changes to that trophy when comparing it to the guy/girl who will promoted. Let's not forget the many fans would would be salty as hell if they give the wrong NPC a playable promotion (*cough* *cough* Tingle *cough*)

Want: 80%

I would do anything for a playable Takamaru and Dr. Kawashima, anything!.

Nomination:

Princess Daisy x 5

 

[Moydow]

What do you mean by not quite?

I mean he's not a person from real life, he's a character from a novel (the one I linked to).

 

[smileMasky]

NPC Characters
Chance: 10%
this concept seems very vague but if I were to guess it's supporting characters? I don't really see that happening.

Want: 5%
Really I'm meh about this concept.

Nomination: Ninten x5

 

[Seanp12]

Concept: Playable NPCs
Chance: 60%
Okay, here's an interesting one. There are three questions here. First, which, if any NPC can be made playable according to Sakurai's previous statements? Second, if so, do any of those have sufficient fan support? Third, do they avoid problems such as third party issues or technical limits?

For the first question, I'll cover them by category. First, bosses. Ridley's the only one of the bosses with any sort of chance, but he has entirely different reasons for not being possible, so I'll disregard him. Next, assist trophies/pokeballs. So far, we haven't had any character be an AT and a fighter in the same game, but we have had Little Mac graduate from AT to fighter from Brawl to Smash 4. Even so, I don't think that provides a precedent. Assist trophies can really go either way, but I think it's possible. (An AT could simply be restricted from appearing during a fight with its playable version) Next, characters from moves. (ie. Chrom, Toad) Given that we already have Pac-Man ghosts filling roles as stage hazards, an assist trophy, smash attacks, and a taunt, I don't think Sakurai considers this to be a problem. Finally, background characters and stage elements (besides bosses). Toon Link has already made this clearly possible.

Now the answer to the second question is obvious: of course! Before they became NPCs, characters like Midna, Chrom, and Tails all had fairly sizeable fan support. The only problem is that so many people have presumed that their NPC status disqualified them, so that many have stopped supporting them.

For the third question, it's hit and miss. Tails is third party, so that hurts him. I can't think of any popular ones with Ice Climber-style technical issues. Most of them shouldn't have any problems, so I think chances are good.

Want: 100%
As a Ridley fan, it's a given.

The Youth from The Red Badge of Courage
Prediction: 20%
If The Wonderful 101 was a commercial failure, then Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. did even worse, sadly. That'll surely affect the scores.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x3

 

[Deleted member]

I mean he's not a person from real life, he's a character from a novel (the one I linked to).

There exist quite a few Henry Flemings, both in real life and in fiction, so it's easy to make such a mistake.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Fleming

 

[Seanp12]

There exist quite a few Henry Flemings, both in real life and in fiction, so it's easy to make such a mistake.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Fleming

Ah, but only one is a video game character also.

Perhaps @ colder_than_ice should add that Fleming is from Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. for clarity's sake. We've already had two people who have been confused. (Which doesn't bode well for Fleming's chances and Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.'s sales)

 

[Aetheri]

Warning: A Huge Wall of Text Approaches!

Concept: Any NPC's Become Playable
take a seat because I got lots to say...

Chance: 35%
(decided to boost the ratings slightly because reasons)
I was going to rate a lower score considering only my wanted characters specifically, but we are, afterall, talking 'ANY' NPCs, it literally could be anyone...even if it's not my wanted characters I'm sure there's a less than decent chance of it happening in some way...even Stafy...or Kamek...heck I dunno... anybody....
Considering there has been no official confirmation that being an NPC within the game automatically means that the character is totally deconfirmed as a playable fighter, it is pretty naive IMO to assume that there is a 0% chance of it happening at all (edt: tbh I'm a little dissappointed that all NPC character support threads were closed as it really hurts their chances in the long run as far as support goes). Sure in our eyes we see it as 'highly unlikely' but at the same time, we are dealing with Sakurai here. Remember Toon Link? Spirit Tracks? A Playable character and an NPC. Also look at both Little Mac and Charizard who both got the promotion to playable characters from past games, sure we haven't got any characters that got the promotion in this game specifically, but my point still stands that characters that appear as NPC's are still liable for an inclusion into the Smash roster. I mean no one thought that we'd get either Mewtwo or Lucas because they were existing Trophies and now we know that being an in-game trophy means they still got a fair shot at becoming playable. I know they're just trophies but still it's the general mindset of the community....

I have actually thought up 4 distinct reasons why being an NPC does NOT necessarily condemn a character to 'NPC hell' as it were:

• 1. The best solution for the possible inclusion for an NPC, IMO, is to simply add a certain code attached to said character so that the NPC version simply does not show during the character's presence on the field. As is the case with Toon Link on the Spirit Tracks stage. This would work better for characters that are Assist Trophies, Poke-Ballmons, and harmelss stage elements (such as Tails or Blaziken), characters such as the Birdmen and Ridley would actually take away from their respective stage's gimmick which is something Sakurai would likely want to avoid...and in the case of Rikki or Chrom well........................I'm beat....

• 2. I'm sure we're all aware that patching is a thing...if Sakurai wanted to, he could simply patch, and remove such a character from the game as an NPC to make room for them as a fighter. The biggest problem with this is when it comes to certain stages with stage hazards it actually takes away some of the stage's gimmick such is the case with the aforementioned Birdmen and Ridley. At the same time some work was done to add the character in the game the way it is and patching it out pretty much means the smash team pretty much wasted some of it's time putting them in the game in the first place....however...

• 3. The common argument against NPC's becoming playable is that they are already in the game. Well, yes! Now that you mention it, the fighter IS in fact already in the game. Believe it or not this actually works in the character's favour as much as it does against. The character's already got a working model with animations, and attacks, sound effects with voice acting already implemented within the game. Heck, half of the work is already done! It's just a matter of polishing things up a bit, tweak a few things to certain moves and animations and getting the character finalized and Smash ready! When it comes to other newcomers everything tends to start from scratch (barring clones and such), but when the character is already implemented in the game's code the workload seems less strenuous...

• 4. And finally Picture this scenario for a second, just forget everything you ever knew in life and just picture this for a moment...a Nintendo Direct is live, we go through the usual news and trailers for a bunch Nintendo crap as usual blah blah, and then we get the black screen followed by the flaming cross signifying some sort of smash related news, then the trailer begins revealing...oh I dunno...let's say Ridley for example...Do you realize how much the smash community would explode if this seemingly 'deconfirmed' character were to become a playable DLC? Just picture it for a second, and forget about the 'too big' claims and whatnot...are you picturing it? Good then you should see my point...I mean remember when Mewtwo was revealed? No one ever saw it coming (of course at the time DLC wasn't confirmed either, but still) and everyone literally lost their mind...well actually I didn't, don't get me wrong I was happy Mewtwo came back but I wasn't all 'MA DIK!' and stuff....anyways DLC is a whole new ball game, and Sakurai often goes back on his original word sometimes...not necessarily lying but intentionally misleading the audience so that he can build the hype and keep a genuine level of excitment for the smash community. I'm not saying that he 'WILL' change his mind about Ridley specifically, was just throwing him out there as an example (keep in mind Ridley is still getting a generous amount of support despite being a so called 'deconfirmed' character, Sakurai may buckle, yuh never know...)

At the same time, what could be holding NPC's back? Sakurai clearly recognized the character's worth enough the make them into full functioning animated characters in the game, they just simply haven't been added to the playable roster. Perhaps Assist Trophies and Poke-ballmons are a sort of rejected characters list. Takamaru may have been considered for playable and Sakurai simply said, "naaah...I'm not 'really feeling it'...let's make him an Assist trophy instead"...could be the same for Zoroark, perhaps Sakurai flipped a coin between Zoroark and Greninja, and Greninja ended up winning the coin toss?, so Sakurai simply put Zoroark in as an Poke ball mon...perhaps some NPC's really ARE too big...
Perhaps Sakurai does indeed understand the fans love for certain characters but perhaps he himself didn't want that character specifically for the smash lineup? perhaps perhaps perhaps...Afterall I'm sure Sakurai wanted to do a little bit of quality control as he didn't want to add an extra 20 characters all willy nilly...and with even veterans making it short of inclusion hell it is possible that he simply did not prioritize some of these characters for a spot on the roster...

Even still, no official word has been said about NPC's not becoming a playable DLC, and we simply have nothing on the contrary to assume otherwise. With that said I am cautiously optimistic....still unlikely but not out of the question....

Want: 100%
But this could be just wishful thinking...There are a few characters that I'd like to see become playable as I'm sure almost everyone does...no?...c'mon there has to be at least one! I mean, there's quite a few characters that are in the game, many of them are fan favourites and I'm sure there's a few characters that would get many people excited to see become playable.
Midna, Dark Samus and Ridley are my personal top three that are currently NPC's, but at the same time there's Zoroark, Waluigi, Skull Kid, Tails, heck even Samurai Goroh would be pretty cool (I mean yeah we got lots of swordsmen already but none of them are slash-happy maniacal Samurai are they). Call me optimistic, a glass half full kinda guy, but since we have no official confirmation stating otherwise I personally don't see any reason why any NPC character can't become playable (well maybe not any, I doubt Mother Brain or Andross would work too well as a playable characters)
Either way, my top three are not only characters that I'd like to play as but they also provide more representation for their respective franchises and they are also well deserved IMO..for reasons that I will discuss when their times come...

phew....I told you there was quite a bit.....much appreciated if you actually bothered to read everything....

Prediction: 6.5%
Henry Fleming
Are you saying I have to do some more research? Man I thought I was done with homework...(why is it always the red characters, too?)

Nominations:
Midna & Wolf Link x5
It's like a heavier Duck Hunt, cept with less projectiles and more terrifying Hair Hands of destruction...

 

[Deleted member]

Ah, but only one is a video game character also.

Perhaps @ colder_than_ice should add that Fleming is from Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. for clarity's sake. We've already had two people who have been confused. (Which doesn't bode well for Fleming's chances and Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.'s sales)

To clarify, I knew this was the Codename: S.T.E.A.M. Fleming, but I assumed he was inspired by a real person, and I just figured out he wasn't.

 

[Seanp12]

Nah, everybody in that game is a literary character except for Lincoln, Victoria, Grant, and Milton. Oh, and the Fox, but she's apparently based on Zorro.

 

[Cress!]

Chance: 5%
I could think of some characters in the background of stages that could MAYBE get in, but anything else is no-way happening.

Want: 90%
Just because of Ghirahim.

Nomination: Lana x5 I guess.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Promoted NPCs... Specifically those with an in-game role from a stage hazard (Ridley), Poké Ball (Meowth) or Assist Trophy (Ghirahim/Takamaru)

Chances... 13%. They've got a role Sakurai gave them, and sometimes they do their job very well. Some Assist Trophies are fine, but there are some characters with assigned role that many would have loved to have seen playable.

Wants: 30% Some NPCs I would love to see playable, and the list includes Ridley, Takamaru and Ghirahim. I'm of course disappointed they weren't playable this time, but I think they should be saved for promoting in the next game.

Henry Fleming Chances:16%
I personally think that if Nintendo decides to make Codename S.T.E.A.M a successful and fine-tuned franchise of games, I think Henry would have plenty of chances with more titles under his Red Badge of Courage. Henry could make pretty good use of his steam powered artillery, so he has potential. I also think that he's maybe a bit better than Wonder Red, since I feel Nintendo picked up on the commercial failure of TW101 and implemented amiibo for a bit of promotion. All in all, I like Henry, would love to see him playable, but it all depends on how Nintendo wants to market Codename S.T.E.A.M, but the Inklings have more popularity and familiarity.
Nominations: Roy X3
Ridley X2 (Of which I can say that if Ridley got promoted, 100% chance that Smashboards would implode on itself )

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Sceptile: 25%
Want: 100%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Quote Chance: 10%
Want: 95%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

NPC DLC Character Chance Rating: EIGHTY SIXTY FIVE PERCENT
(Forgot to take into account that people believe made up rules, which will lower support for these characters on the ballot )

WHAT?! This is outrageous! How can I give such a high rating for something that OBVIOUSLY isn't going to happen. Have I gone mad? Am I being delusional? Am I trolling?

No.

The concept of an NPC being impossible to turn into a playable character is by far my favorite made up rule that the Smash community has come up with, as it's also one of the dumbest. It's an offshoot of the "Trophies can't be playable characters" rule, an equally stupid rule that people believed, which was effectively squashed by Mewtwo and Lucas.

Let me ask you, what basis does this argument have? What official sources have we been given to conclude that this can't happen?

"Because Sakurai already decided to make them an AT/Pokeball/Boss/whatever!"

And that matters... why?

"Well... because they have already been given a defined role in the game! Sakurai wouldn't dare change his mind about a character's role in the game!"

And you know this... how?

"......................"

There is no official source, not even a HINT, that NPC's can't be considered to become DLC. There has never been any sort of statement that Waluigi/Tingle/Dark Samus/Ridley/Takamaru/Zoroark/Freaking Starfy etc. can't become playable characters in THIS game, and no indications that they can't be voted for in the ballot. And do you know why?

Because turning those characters into fighters is much, MUCH easier then creating new characters to become fighters. Let's all put on our thinking caps and I'll teach you a bit about how game design works.

I study game design at a university. I've worked in the gaming industry before, and have had the opportunity to talk with developers from Blizzard, Valve, Nintendo, Bungie, EA, and many more. I'm also trying to make a living as a Youtube gamer. I'm going to go out on a limb and say I know more about the industry then the majority of the Smash community.

Let's draw up a scenario. Sakurai is choosing between two characters, let's say Isaac and Waluigi. Both have an equal amount of votes in the Smash ballot, you can think of movesets for both of them, you'd be fine with creating both of them, but you can only choose one. Now, do you pick the character who you have to build from scratch? Or do you pick the character who already has a fully functional 3D model and has several animations that you can use, AND is recognizable to a wider audience?

Let's draw up another! Say Ridley gets a redesign for an upcoming Metroid game. This redesign would work perfectly in Smash Bros, he's a popular pick, might be able to reuse a few assets from the existing Ridley, and his announcement would cause the Smash community to explode. Do you create the requested fighter to promote an upcoming game? Or do you follow a made up principle by the Smash community?

How about one more, just for fun? Sakurai said he didn't include Takamaru due to a lack of familiarity with a western audience. Say a game is announced that stars Takamaru, or Takamaru gets a ton of support in the Smash ballot from the west. Do you use the fully functional 3D model with several working animations? Or do you choose not to, because.... reasons?

Obvious answers are obvious. In the gaming industry, it's common practice to reuse assets in order to create more content, as it's the easiest way to expand a game in the shortest amount of time. But then we come to the AT/Pokeball/Boss in question. What do we do with the assets that are already in the game? Surely this must be a very daunting task if the Smash community is so adamantly supporting this made up rule, right?



1. The first, and easiest option, is to simply not do anything at all. Sure, it would mean that a character could summon themselves into the game, and that makes no sense, but so what? This is Smash Bros, a game where 7 Marios can team up and murder Peach in a Sonic themed stage! The issue arises that people might be confused about who is the AT and who is the character, too which I would point you to Dark Samus and Samus's Dark Pallette Swap. They look almost identical! Or play an 8 player Rosalina and Luma match, how hard is it too keep track of your Luma?

2. But say you want to avoid that anyway, because, reasons. So the next easiest step is too simply remove the AT/Pokeball/Boss/etc. This is actually a stupidly easy task to do, yet people treat it as if it would take tons of effort. No, ADDING things into the game is a ton of effort, that's why you'd reuse assets, remember? But removing assets?

Simple. Comment out/delete the code that tells this character to appear, and that character will not appear. There are already examples of this in the game, if you get the Pyrosphere level in All Star Mode, Ridley won't show up, even though the other hazards do. 8 Player Smash removes a lot of hazards on stages.

3. And if they want to keep the assets in the game? Slightly more difficult, and by slightly I mean you'd have to type a little bit more. Have the game ask a simple question. "Is X character being played as?" If the answer is "yes", the character won't show up as an NPC. If the answer is "no", the character will show up as an NPC.

Only reasons this isn't at a 100% is A) It's perfectly possible that an NPC will simply not be chosen, and B) Japan's a traditionalist country, and maybe Sakurai has some sort of tabuu (hehe) against changing a characters role in a single game. Perfectly fine if it's between games, but a single game? Blasphemous!!!

Want: 100%

I'd rate higher if I could.

Ridley. Takamaru. Dillon. Saki. Waluigi. Meowth. Genesect. There are so many characters that are NPC's that I'd love to see promoted to be playable fighters.

I'd also get a lot of enjoyment out of all the times I'd get to say "I told you so!"

Predictions: Henry Fleming: 10%

Classic Literature character? Not gonna do to well.

Noms:
You know what, why not?
x5 Ridley

 

[Aetheri]

*GASP* I have competition!!!

seems we both came up with similar arguments though...I'm still somewhat paranoid about the idea that 'My Character Won't Make The Cut'...but at the same time without confirmation otherwise....Never say never...

edit: actually you brought up another point that I missed regarding 'Not doing anything' sure characters can have multiple roles within the game as shown with Toon Link and the Ghosts appearing pretty much everywhere.....Imagine Dark Samus summoning another Dark Samus! (actually that is feasible as Dark Samus does indeed summon a Dark Echo, being a copy of herself, in Prime 3, possible Down B?)...8 Player Smash pretty much nullifies the fact that a charaacter can't appear multiple times...I mean 8 of any character in the game may seem odd but in smash anything is possible (well according to Sakurai making Ridley and Ice Climbers playable is not, but you get my point)

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

An NPC becomes playable:
Chance - 12%
Ridley is not happening, but as for others, I don't think being an assist trophy or having a small stage appearance will stop Sakurai from making them playable if the fan support in the ballot is strong enough. At the same time, I don't think any of the ones in this game will be getting that promotion for this game's DLC.

Want - 10%?
There are a few NPCs I'd like to see playable, but none are a huge deal.

Nominate Anna x5.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Concept: Promoted NPC's
Chance: 10%
Look, I don't see it happening. I think the ones saying "60" to "80" percent are being ridiculous. That's way, way too high. They're already in a defined role in the game. I don't think they'll be promoted via DLC, period.

Want: 60%
The only one I really want is Ridley. Lyn I kinda want but don't really want any more FE characters right now, and that's really about it. Don't care about the rest.

An NPC becomes playable:
Chance - 12%
Ridley is not happening, but as for others, I don't think being an assist trophy or having a small stage appearance will stop Sakurai from making them playable if the fan support in the ballot is strong enough. At the same time, I don't think any of the ones in this game will be getting that promotion for this game's DLC.

Want - 10%?
There are a few NPCs I'd like to see playable, but none are a huge deal.

Nominate Anna x5.

The other problem is that because they are AT's, Pokeballs, or bosses, etc., they'll also get less ballot votes in general because most people think they have no chance of happening. So its a double-edged sword. I do agree that I don't think it outright keeps them out, but it indirectly does, plus I don't think they'd be considered unless they got a MASSIVELY HUGE vote in the poll. And most of the characters already in such rolls aren't that popular except Ridley, really.


Predictions:
Henry Fleming - 22%

I think some will give him a decent ranking.


Nominations:
Lip (Panel de Pon) x5

 

[Kalimdori]

Chance: 10%
Look, I don't see it happening. I think the ones saying "60" to "80" percent are being ridiculous. That's way, way too high. They're already in a defined role in the game. I don't think they'll be promoted via DLC, period.

Forgive me, but when I'm "being ridiculous", I would prefer my accuser to at least back up his point with more then "I don't see it happening"

 

[Chandeelure]

-Promoted NPCs:

Chances: 30%
Want: 100% Ridley, Dillon, Shy Guy, Ashley, Oshawott, Spewpa, etc.

-Nominations: Pichu X5

 

[Smasher 101]

I will resume my extra nomination handling duties starting on the next day, if that's ok.

NPC becoming playable: 0.5%

Sorry, but I don't see this happening. They already have a defined role in the game, and while I understand it's possible to change that, I personally don't see them really wanting to. It doesn't help that most of the current NPCs aren't going to get a lot of support nowadays.

Want: 100%

That being said I'd love to be wrong, there's plenty of NPCs I'd enjoy seeing as playable.

Henry Fleming prediction: 15.95%

I have no idea.

Nominations: if this is allowed again, Ryu (Street Fighter) x5)

 

[Icedragonadam]

You made a mistake on the front page. You listed Mother 3 stage twice as it's the second time I nominated it. So it should be Concept: Mother 3 Stage x7.

Anyways,

NPC becoming playable:

Chance: 6.78% I don't see it happening at all.

Want: 10% Most of them are characters I don't really care for at all.

Prediction: Henry Flemming: 14.56%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

NPC
Chance: 5% It doesn't seem very likely, but who knows.

Want: Waluigi+Dillon 100% They were my top 2 most wanted newcomers for Smash 4.

Nomination: BB bandit trio X5

 

[Ura]

NPC's becoming playable

Chance: 1%

Just can't see this happening at all really.

Want: 10%

Not really intrigued by the idea either.

Nominations
Roy X5

 

[Kalimdori]

"Can't see it happening"

"They wouldn't want too"

">10% Score"

I'm not trying to be rude, but you are all being a bit close-minded on this subject.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

NPC promotions

Ooh, I’ve been waiting for this day…I hope we get some good discussions. I hope people don’t just look at it and say “Oop, it’ll never happen, 0%” without some hard evidence that it is impossible… After all, remember when the Japanese version of the 3DS came out last year? How many people saw Mewtwo’s trophy and considered him deconfirmed forever? This rule of ‘Assist Trophies can never be made playable. Ever.’ seems to have the same amount of backing as ‘They’re a trophy, so they’ll never be playable. Ever.’, and we all know how that one turned out.

Chance: 85%

Personally, I would give this a high chance of happening. Maybe this is a bit optimistic, but this is asking if at least one of a vast number of characters ends up making it, so altogether it seems reasonable. After all, NOWHERE does it say that a single character can have only one role in the game, and can never ever change. Zelda/Shiek are both playable, yet the same person, as are Samus/Zero Suit and Mario/Doc. We can even talk about how Palutena is playable despite being in statues all over her stage, or that Toon Link can alternate between playable and Spirit Tracks conductor. And it’s not just limited to playable characters – Inky, Blinky, Pinky, and Clyde are all stage hazards on Pac-Maze, but that doesn’t prevent them from being Assist trophies as well (or elements of PAC-MAN's moveset...). Assuming any character was promoted, the developers could easily take the original form out of the game in some way. Or not, really – Smash has a history of letting the same character be on stage at the same time.​

Really, I think one of the most important factors is that these characters were all popular enough to make it into smash, just not selected for playable. Would Nintendo rather bring in a new character with an unknown fanbase, or make an assist character playable who has a known fanbase? Particularly for some of the NPCs, Nintendo has even acknowledged their fanbases. I think it’s much more likely that Nintendo would rather make a NPC playable that they know will sell, over something like a third party from a series that is unknown in a decent portion of the world.​

I’m going to split this up and discuss the chances of making the NPCs playable, in the order of ease:​

• Current Assist Trophies/Pokéball Pokémon (Waluigi, Midna, Takamaru, Gardevoir, Zoroark, etc.)

There are currently 39 Assist Trophies and 41 Pokémon as NPCs. They appear to be selected based on a random number generator (RNG), which is very easy to replace or modify to not pick a certain number. In the case any of them is made playable, a single line of code could just reroll the RNG to get a different number and put up a different character. As a bonus, these characters are all modeled and rigged; some even have animations. Since animations and rigging are the hardest parts, this means that a lot of the work is done for the devs already. Some, like Waluigi, have several animations already, e.g. running, down attack, side smash, etc., making a very easy job for the dev team to just add in the remaining animations and take them out of the lists. Furthermore, the now vacant AT slot could be given to another character – if Midna were made playable and we needed another Zelda assist trophy, the devs could patch Impa or someone in to take her place while Midna sits on the select screen. Sakurai has even admitted some, like Takamaru, were considered for playability…and Little Mac has shown that the jump can be made.​

• Current Stage Hazards/Bosses (Twinrova, Flying Men, Reshiram/Zekrom, Dark Emperor, Yellow Devil, Nabbit, 5-Volt, Metal Face, and some big purple dragon-looking thing)

These are really all over the place. Some, like 5-Volt, are too tied into the stage to be anything but a hazard; others, like the Bosses, are generally disliked on principle and people would rather they be out. One of the most common requests is a hazard switch – to be able to play the stage with platforms, but without a boss coming by to wreck everyone’s day. For the stages that have made it to 8-player mode, the hazards are all off, so we know there is a switch. The game could easily be set similarly to how Alfonzo takes over for Toon Link (“Leave it to me!”): If Ridley is playing on Pyrosphere, do not have Boss Ridley show up. Otherwise, fair game (or unfair, depending on how you see bosses…). Furthermore, as with the previous category, some of these have a lot of model rigging finished – Nabbit walks around and has a grab, Twinrova have movement and a special attack, while Ridley has almost a complete attack moveset. As before, some of these could be promoted to playable without breaking the stage, or at least having the stage’s hazard be deactivated if the character is playable (or at will – like I said, a lot of people want that too). And the stage icon can just be patched to a different one in case the character is displayed too prominently.​

• Current Smash Run Enemies (Bonkers, Darknut, Shy Guy, Waddle Dee, etc.)

The 3DS version contains about 79 enemies in Smash Run, however only a fraction of this number appear in one round. As with the assist trophies, they can easily be commented out of the lists and made playable, and have several attack animations – most even have animations for lying prone and being grabbed. However, these are very generic enemies, so have little chance. What could happen, though, is that one is used as a base for a similar playable character, e.g. Bandana Dee could be made by using the animations that the Waddle Dee has in the game, again, making life easier for the devs.​

• Current Stage Background Characters (Viridi, Tails, Silver, Knuckles, and a host of various Pokémon and Animal Crossing citizens)

These may be a bit tougher to include depending on what the stage is. With the exception of a few, the Animal Crossing citizens are all interchangeable and put in with a RNG– this means an individual could be commented out to appear as a playable character or another role (in case anyone wanted Mr. Resetti’s ‘assist’ trophy back). The Sonic characters, likewise, are sent at random times, and could thus be excluded from running across the stage – all of them also have rigging and a few animations. Viridi is a special case – she shows up to call the Reset Bomb down, but is only put up as a sprite. Thus, she could be replaced by a blank image, and then she never shows up on that stage, allowing her to be playable. The only ones who may be problematic are the Pokémon on those stages – they are not randomly put in, and are always the same. If any of them (e.g. Blaziken) were to be replaced, it may involve remodeling something a lot more complicated rather than just commenting out a RNG outcome.​

• Current Playable Characters’ Moves (Toad, Chrom, Doc Louis)

These may not be able to make the jump. Despite having animations already, changing these would involve giving Peach a new sideB/Robin a new Final Smash/Little Mac new win poses.​

So, in conclusion, I don’t think that a character existing in Smash already permanently cements him to one spot, particularly if he has a big enough fanbase. Anything can happen, and a lot of the highly requested characters are in the game, but not in the way we’d have liked. And there’s no rule that says things can’t change…​

TL/DR: There’s no rule saying they can’t, and most of the NPCs are very popular characters. Most can easily be taken out of their current role and make playable. ​

Want: 100%

I’d go higher if I could. Aside from K.Rool, everyone I want playable is either a veteran or an NPC. And really, it would not bother me at all if Midna or Ghirahim called him/herself as an assist while playing, or if Boss Ridley showed up to wreck Playable Ridley’s day, or whatever. I would just like to see these popular characters playable, and I think they have a better chance than obscure third-parties or niche first-party characters.​

Prediction: [ABSTAIN]

Nominations:

Ridley x1
Midna x1
Ghirahim x1
Squirtle x2
​

And side note - the Avengers movie was so intense! I'm so glad I pre-wrote this esterday since I can barely type I'm shaking so hard. I need to see that movie again immedieaty.

 

[Ura]

"Can't see it happening"

"They wouldn't want too"

">10% Score"

I'm not trying to be rude, but you are all are being a bit close-minded on this subject.

I don't really think anyone's opposed to the idea. Most of us just can't see it happen. Personally, I would be neutral if it happened.

Also, that pic is going to haunt my dreams now (thanks a lot bruh). The Grinch has always creeped me out since I was a kid.

 

[PK_Wonder]

@ Smasher 101 Roger that.

@Chalo5000 , you win an additional FIVE bonus nominations to use as you'd like for being the closest Wonder Red prediction.

@ Icedragonadam , good catch, Mother 3 stage noms have been combined.

Shout out to @ Aetheri @ Kalimdori and @ CaptainAmerica for compelling arguments.

 

[Aetheri]

Double GASP!! More competition!!!

"Can't see it happening"

"They wouldn't want too"

">10% Score"

I'm not trying to be rude, but you are all are being a bit close-minded on this subject.

Something I noticed as a general consensus, bias tends to sway people's opinions quite a bit...at the same time notice how long their arguments are? doesn't appear they put very much thought into it other than 'don't think it will happen'...

If people would actually try to bring up arguments against this concept rather than dismissing the idea...at the same time if there are no characters that the person cares about then there really is no reason too, I guess....

 

[AirshBornely]

Aw I missed out on Red.... :/

-Promoted NPCs

EDITED
Chances: 5%
I mostly don't see it happening... I mean, Riki can be an AT and part of Shulk's FS, but that's different. They could always patch the AT from happening I guess, but seems unlikely and I'm sure Sakurai and the rest of the devs. already considered them once before. Now if we're talking about trophies, that's another thing.

Want: 100%
Saki, Lyn, and Takamaru were some of the ones I was really hoping for before they were sadly shown off as AT. So yeah, it would be nice.

Nomination: Zael 5x

 

[A10theHero]

NPCs becoming playable
Chance: 1.5%
I don't see it happening. Period.
Well, since I'd rather not see someone wagging his (@ Kalimdori , you're male, right? ) finger at me and saying "You have no proof of that!", I'll elaborate.
First off, I'll say that this is not impossible. Sakurai can do whatever he wants, so there's always a chance of a surprise.
But in my opinion, I think he has a process of determining if a character should be a playable fighter or an Assist Trophy. He can change his mind of course (case in point, Little Mac), but if he wanted to promote an Assist Trophy, he would probably wait until the next Smash game to do so. Just because he can change it with DLC right now, doesn't mean he will.
Why I think that, you might ask? Okay, this next part is very interpretative on my part, but it makes sense. Ready? Here goes: I do not think Sakurai would want to alter the contents currently available in the game. They have already been finalized in defined roles. From what he said in this article, it looks like Sakurai views DLC as a treat. The game is already complete, so now they're only gonna add to it. Moving a character from Assist Trophy/Stage Hazard/Whatever to playable character involves removing them from their previous roles. You could say that he could add something new to fill this gap, but I don't think the purpose of DLC was to make you buy new content that you can't even use, really. Downloading a new Assist Trophy or Stage Hazard is not the same as downloading a playable character or customizable Mii Fighter outfits.
What I just said works well despite Mewtwo's and Lucas's inclusion because even though they were trophies, making them fighters does not require any work to be done on the previously available trophies of them. Their inclusion was only an addition. There was no alteration of the established content in the original game.
To summarize, if the process requires subtraction of any kind (even if they can replace it), I don't see it happening.

Want: 95%
Of course I would want this to happen!

Prediction:
Henry Flemming: 13%

Nomination:
Spyro the Dragon [x5]

 

[ZeldaFan01]

NPC's becoming playable

Chance: 50%
No one can read Sakurai's mind.
I just want to say that maybe there'll be dlc that turns some assist trophies into playable characters! Assist trophies coming as dlc could just be disabled if they are played...or just removed entirely, its that simple.

Want: 100%
Saki, Shadow, Lyn, Midna, Daisy, Toon Zelda/Tetra, Phosphora, Magnus, Kat & Ana, Tails, Blaze, Silver.....

Nominations:
Saki X5

 

[PK_Wonder]

I'm going to make kind of a stream of consciousness post as I battle with the possibility here, so bear with me.

The problem with NPCs becoming playable is clear, as we have plenty of evidence against them. The past games have set several firm precedents:

• Once a Pokeballmon, always a Pokeballmon.
• Once an Assist Trophy, always an Assist Trophy.
• Once a background cameo, always a background cameo.
• Once a boss always a boss.

Oh.

Wait a second here...

But allow me to address the flaw in my logic. All of the examples I gave weren't nullified until a new entry in the series was released, correct? That's true, but we didn't have DLC before, so a character was always confined to the solitary role it had within that entry in the series. Using that rule, it would not have been possible for a character to be, for example, both an enemy in the story mode and a playable character. Oh... wait... (I'm aware that this R.O.B. argument isn't a heavy blow as the nature of SSE made the Ancient Minister, "THE R.O.B." a separate character from the generic robots).

I could go on and on in circles arguing with myself here, as every argument on each side could have an equally valid counterpoint. is going to be a common argument in favor of playable NPC characters, but you must also consider that that Toon Link is a separate incarnation from the playable Toon Link.

There's really no technical issue that a patch and some coding can't fix (don't make the AT/Pokeball show up), although they aren't going to completely edit any existing characters, so that makes me think Chrom and a couple of others are completely ineligible. I don't think they would tamper with any stages either, so characters that are integral to the stage are probably ineligible (i.e. Kamek), while those that aren't actually a hazard of some kind, just a background element, (i.e. Tails, not that he has high chances, would be considered). Ridley is an interesting case, as even though he is a tangible part of his stage, like Toon Link, he has multiple incarnations, the one appearing on Pyrosphere the "less iconic" form. I'll debate about him on his day.

Then we've got the collectible trophies to use as evidence. Yes, these in no way, shape, or form mean they won't consider a character (Mewtwo and Lucas both had them). The evidence, or at least tidbit worth mentioning, is that they left in Mewtwo's original trophy in the Wii U while giving him new ones as a fighter. It's just interesting that he was allowed to have multiple trophies that are just... "Mewtwo." Every other character with multiple trophies, like Mario, is at least wearing a costume, or the trophy is doing something from his series that the fighter trophy can't represent. This probably doesn't mean a damn thing. Just something I thought I'd mention.

Okay, so chances.
20% It could physically happen because of the miracle of patching and Sakurai isn't someone who cares intensely about paradoxes, so it IS POSSIBLE. Unfortunately, none of the characters seem highly requested enough yet for this iteration of Smash's fighter ballot, because self-fulfilling prophecies suck. Don't let them happen, guys.

My rating is subject to change on this concept. It's the most debate I've ever put into a rating so far, and I'm still developing my opinion.

nominate - Crono x5

 

[IvanQuote]

Playable NPC:

Chance: 22%

No clue how to rate this honestly. I'm going it say not likely due to how one even treats the repeat characters (then again there is Duck Hunt).

Want: 65%

Mostly indifferent (believe me this would have been MUCH higher if Isaac were an assist trophy). There's no real character that stands out to me apart from Takamaru or Banana Waddle Dee that may even fall into the catagory.

Fleming:
Chance: 7%

Want: 34%

Noms: moonstruck blossom x2
Homecoming Hijinx x3

 

[JaidynReiman]

"Can't see it happening"

"They wouldn't want too"

">10% Score"

I'm not trying to be rude, but you are all are being a bit close-minded on this subject.

There's numerous, multiple problems stacking against them. Its not just one small issue.


First off, there's no evidence this can happen via DLC, and until that happens everyone will naturally be skeptical. They picked these characters as Assist Trophies or Pokeballs or stage hazards FOR A REASON. Yes, this can be rectified 5-6 years later, but this is NOT 5-6 years later, this is a year later. There's also numerous evidence in game that they took into account the possibility of DLC before the game was released.


Was DLC outright PLANNED to happen before release? There's possible evidence that it was, most notably the legitimate "Smash 6" job hiring that opened up. It wasn't a fake, it was real, it truly existed, and they obviously planned on this. Whatever it is, they planned it out in advance. Sakurai has also stated there's a smaller team working on DLC. These are probably interns they hired for release.


Ok, with that out of the way... they clearly had it in mind to choose characters as NPC roles prior to the game was even released. Odds are, they picked popular characters they didn't really plan on making playable.


Now, COULD that change if they have a character who is highly rated? Yes, in fact, I doubt they'd ignore a character who became extremely popular in a poll. But first off, there really aren't many notable characters who could fit this anyway. The only one who could likely even come close to topping the polls is Ridley (who is so blatantly out that even if he does top the poll there's probably no chance of him happening regardless).

Second of all, there's also the fact that because many of these characters are already NPC's, it doesn't really look like they'd be valid candidates as DLC in the game as is. And ultimately, not many are actually talking about voting for them. Some still are, but many are skipping them, thereby making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.


The reason I thought the 80-85% ranking is ridiculous is because it doesn't take every factor into account. Thinking that its possible is one thing, but the rating just seems way too high, there's too many factors to conceivably think that this scenario has that high of a chance to happen.

Unless you count trophies as NPC's, in which case that's 100%.


There's too many factors for this to simply, logically, be that high of a ranking. Admittedly, I shouldn't have ruled out 60%; that's not nearly so bad.