Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Aetheri]

One common argument I'm seeing from skeptics of this concept is the 'Defined roles' argument.
'These characters have defined roles so they won't be made playable.'

Ummm...First off, this is a non-canon game that has no plot...it is Smash a game which features hundreds of characters in some way doing literally anything from nothing to whatever the players makes them do, characters in the main roster just simply beat the sh*t out of each other...It's not like we are playing as a character and encountering random NPC's in some adventure, it's Smash...that now has DLC something that we haven't had before in this game...if it was Brawl with SSE maybe but even then Toon Link, Wolf and Jiggs had no role in SSE and if DLC was available, then they simply would've been added extras without being involved so even still...

Second, this argument is nullified by the fact that Toon Link is both an NPC and a playable character. 'But that's a different incarnation of Toon Link'....ok... so are there two different incarnations of Rikki? since he appears as both an Assist Trophy and in Shulk's Final smash, seems there's no issue when he's got two different roles...Also the Ghosts are found literally everywhere....from stage hazards, to Pac-Man's Smash attacks, to his taunts, to Assist Trophies....once again a non-canon game that can feature 8 of the same character on the same stage....

Besides would you call Tails running in the background as a 'defined role'?...I mean he's just there...running...not really doing much, the same can be said for other stage characters such as the Pokemon from Kalos, most of them are standing there spectating...is that really a defined role that Sakurai wouldn't want to tamper with...'No Blaziken is supposed to spectate and do nothing I don't care if he's popular, that's ridiculous that he'd be a playable character'...

Truth be told the only thing that seems to hold NPC's back is the mindset of the community assuming it is not a possibilty for them to be made playable...I mean look at this forum, no Character Support Threads are open if the character is an NPC simply because they 'assume' deconfirmation, even though there is no official word that it is true...so the Smash community is discouraging people from supporting their favourite characters simply because they are already in the game...remember this is without official word that goes against their possible promotion...

 

[Delzethin]

Because Sceptile doesn't come up because people legitimately liked the character (unlike Wolf). He came up because "Oh, as have a Fire and Water starter Pokemon. Well, we need a grass one too. And we need more Pokemon from the third gen." Sceptile is suppose to fill a quota. This happens all the time, and I've yet to see one of these characters make it into the roster.

So how does that explain all the high want ratings by people who said Sceptile was one of their favorite starters? It's proof right there that a significant amount of that support comes from people who thought Sceptile was cool but didn't think lending support would accomplish anything before DLC became a thing.

I could argue Ridley's biggest support comes from people saying he "deserves" to be in just as easily as you claim Sceptile is only there for people who want a complete starter triangle...but neither are true, and trying to claim they were wouldn't change that. In Scep's case, saying "we need a Grass starter" isn't a valid argument, but having abilities that no other current character has is pretty compelling, and a lot of support is focused on that.

"So many compelling options"? Just look at the want/chance scores most of the characters that we've rated have had so far. Outside of K. Rool, Isaac, and Wolf, most are barely rated more than fifty percent on either want or chance. A big reason for that is because many people's first choices are already NPCs. Just look at how many 100% want ratings this concept has gotten!/quote]
That kind of score is understandable when we're talking about a whole bunch of characters at once. I'd give 100% to a concept if, say, it made Absol that much likely, regardless of what other characters were involved. If we were talking individual NPCs, the ratings would vary just as much as the non-NPC ones we've had so far.

 

[Seanp12]

Looking back on the old thread, it appears you're right. They weren't as popular as I thought (Ridley excluded). Still, there's the fact that NPCs still give the devs more to work with than non-NPCs, most importantly an in-game model that's already got a few animations.

 

[SmashChu]

So how does that explain all the high want ratings by people who said Sceptile was one of their favorite starters? It's proof right there that a significant amount of that support comes from people who thought Sceptile was cool but didn't think lending support would accomplish anything before DLC became a thing.

I could argue Ridley's biggest support comes from people saying he "deserves" to be in just as easily as you claim Sceptile is only there for people who want a complete starter triangle...but neither are true, and trying to claim they were wouldn't change that. In Scep's case, saying "we need a Grass starter" isn't a valid argument, but having abilities that no other current character has is pretty compelling, and a lot of support is focused on that.

Sceptile is at the bottom in terms of want at about 41 percent (15 out of 18). Even if a few people really liked him, the majority doesn't and don't think he'll be included. Ridley, on the other hand, has been a major villain in the series appearing in most of the games and was the one responsible for killing Samus's parents. People want Ridley because they like Ridley. Sceptile came up because he fit a quota (Grass Starter).

 

[a smart guy]

NPCs becoming playable?
Chance: 45% I'm leaning on the side of no, but I'm having a hard time explaining why. To me it seems like a coin flip, but these characters already being in the game has ironically lowered their fan bases.
Want: 50% I want some of them to be playable later, but I don't think any of them need to be in the game as DLC right now.

Predictions: 24.4% He's in the same boat as Wonder Red, without any trophies in game.

Ryu x5 We have to rate him eventually

 

[Aetheri]

Sceptile is at the bottom in terms of want at about 41 percent (15 out of 18). Even if a few people really liked him, the majority doesn't and don't think he'll be included. Ridley, on the other hand, has been a major villain in the series appearing in most of the games and was the one responsible for killing Samus's parents. People want Ridley because they like Ridley. Sceptile came up because he fit a quota (Grass Starter).

We still talking Sceptile?
The Grass Starter argument isn't the only thing people are bringing up...he's relevant, unique, and represents a new pokemon generation...
Also notice that he still is more desired than Ivysaur who is a grass starter and a veteran...
Sceptile's want scores are lower mainly due to the fact that people don't want another pokemon rep...even some people that like him will give lower ratings for that reason...
Either way yeah...lets save this for a more relevant topic...

 

[Dastardly Ridleylash]

We still talking Sceptile?
The Grass Starter argument isn't the only thing people are bringing up...he's relevant, unique, and represents a new pokemon generation...
Sceptile's want scores are lower mainly due to the fact that people don't want another pokemon rep...even some people that like him will give lower ratings for that reason...
Either way yeah...lets save this for a more relevant topic...

...Sceptile is from Generation 3, though. The only way he'd represent Gen 6 is because of his ORAS Mega, and that's it. And we already have three Megas for Final Smashes.

In terms of other NPC's, Ridley would have the biggest chance simply because he's the most demanded and longest requested of them (since even Melee, people have wanted Ridley as a fighter in Smash). There's also the currently in-the-pipes book that Ridley fans are making entirely on their own, translating to Japanese and sending off to Nintendo themselves to raise awareness of the demand Ridley has as a fighter to think about, as well (pluggingtheRevolution). In terms of popularity, pretty much no other newcomer can touch Ridley or K.Rool; these guys have been big Nintendo characters for longer than a number of the other ideas have even existed.

So really, if the Revolution succeeds, we very well may get a playable Ridley; if not now, than certainly in the next game.

 

[Delzethin]

Sceptile is at the bottom in terms of want at about 41 percent (15 out of 18). Even if a few people really liked him, the majority doesn't and don't think he'll be included. Ridley, on the other hand, has been a major villain in the series appearing in most of the games and was the one responsible for killing Samus's parents. People want Ridley because they like Ridley. Sceptile came up because he fit a quota (Grass Starter).

That's still a double standard. You bring up multiple facets for why one character is supported, while simultaneously acting like one facet of a different character is the only one that counts. As I've said before, there're plenty of Sceptile supporters bringing up the Grass starter angle as a point of uniqueness, not a quota to be filled, and plenty others who just like the character. Those are just as valid.

Furthermore, sitting at 15th of 18 in Want right now reflects a small sample size more than anything. We've rated almost nothing but the frontrunner characters so far. It's like comparing a AAA ballplayer with potential who isn't quite there yet to the roster of the All-Star Game. For all we know, in a couple months Scep could be sitting at, say...19th of 50.

You act like this is a matter of us-versus-them. I don't have anything against you, and I definitely don't have anything against Ridley. I just want to set the record straight, and keep a complex situation from being overly simplified.


...But yeah. Let's...keep this from going off the rails.

 

[Thereallucario]

NPC's becoming playable
Chance: 30%
I unfortunately think its wishful thinking. Assuming where referring to bosses (aka "stage hazards"), AT, SR enemies, and pokeballs (not move specific characters or background cameos) sakurai has already put them in a place he thought was right... and I don't think that will change any time soon. So the only real chance would be the smash ballot. So my chance is my thoughts on the ballot spaces, which right now happens to be about 30% of the characters put out.

Want: 50%
Meh.

 

[ES. Dinah]

NPC

Chance: 5-10%

I would actually love to see Phosphora become playable. She looks amazing and could be a really cool fighter. I can see it happening in the next game because she is an assist trophy. Either her or Magnus.

Want: 50%

I want a lot of NPC to become playable but we can't always have nice things. It happened with Mac, at least. Not sure what else to say besides Phosophora would be cool.

Nominations: KOS-MOS X5

 

[Arcanir]

We probably should move the Sceptile debate over to the Official Character thread or something as it seems we have a lot to talk about with him, but we are getting quite off-topic in this thread.

Anyway...

Promoted NPC
Chances: 5%
This is probably the most debatable of what we'll vote for, unlike the characters where we can access their "chances" by what Sakurai has said, done, looked for, etc., a concept like this is rather new as this is the first time we'll be able to get an NPC upgraded in the same game. So I will start off by saying I don't think it's impossible, but I'm not sure I'd say I think it's likely. The main reasons I believe that are two things, the first is the intent going into the game/DLC, and the support surrounding the characters. For the former, it is greatly implied from what we've found in data and interviews that Sakurai did have DLC on the mind while making the game, and we've seen that in things like the arrows on the 3DS version and the eshop icons. So if that was the case, I don't think he would've put in characters in those roles if he was just going to reconsider them for DLC as they do take time to get to work and undoing that may not be pleasing for the team. Having said that, it is possible that they could though with the right amount of support, but that leads into my second point.

Aside from Ridley (who has his own unfortunate issues), none of the characters really have that much support to them. A lot of people aren't placing their bets on these characters and many are prioritizing those that don't have NPC roles like Isaac, so even if Sakurai is willing to change the NPC roles, they don't have the strongest support for him to reconsider. So that brings this concept's chances down even further as the characters that could advance are not really getting attention, so it may not come to pass.

Want: 80%
I would be lying if I said I didn't want a few characters from the NPC roles, Ridley in particular is one I'd love to see and it would be nice if it happened.

 

[A Distant Demon]

TBH i was expecting much higher want scores.
takamaru, toad*, ridley, waluigi, lyn, ghirahim. . .all popular characters (some more than others) and im seeing very low want scores. heck blue didnt give 100% for kawashima or sable.

*yes toad is a species but shhhh.

 

[Scamper52596]

Playable NPC's
Chance: 16.5%
Let's put it this way. Smash 4 is a completed game in the eyes of Sakurai. He already stated this. I really don't think he's going to do anything that might compromise that via DLC. He sees DLC as a means of adding content to the game. I don't believe he's thinking of going back to change the base game's content (Balance patches and glitch fixes aside). Now of course I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but it seems very unlikely when you try to look at Smash through Sakurai's point of view. I know my explanation isn't quite as lengthy as some of the other explanations I've seen in this thread, but I think both sides have explained their arguments thoroughly enough and I'm of the opinion that it's not likely. The only way that opinion will change is when I see it happen. I'll give this controversial topic a percentage of 16.5%.
It's all up to Sakurai and his team...

Want: 5%
There were enough NPC reveals that made me sigh a relief, and I don't have much of a desire to see the floodgates open again. The only NPC I would love to see become playable is already very unlikely due to his third party status.

Prediction - Henry Fleming: 11.6%

Nominations:
x4 Toon Zelda
X1 Tetra

 

[MainJPW]

Promoted NPC's

Chances: 45%
It could happen.

Want: 30%
There's a few I want playable. Like Ridley

Prediction - Henry Fleming: 10%

Nominations:
Concept: DLC Costumes for Characters x3
Viridi x1
Ninten x1

 

[edsett]

Playable NPCs
Chance: 5%
While it isn't technically impossible to promote NPCs, I doubt it'll happen.
Characters who are ATs, FSes, and/or stage bosses are represented in a non-playable active role. It doesn't help that we have reasons why are a few aren't playable (Takamaru is too obscure, Chrom is too generic, Ridley is too Ridley.) This doesn't bode well for active NPCs as Sakurai may decide their current role is good enough. Remember what he said about Waluigi.
But background NPCs aren't active, do any of them have good support? Doubt it. Even the biggest NPC fanbases have dwindled.
About characters in movesets and Smash Run enemies, Captain Toad and Bandana Dee are shown in their respective franchises to coexist with other members of their species. Peach's Toad and Smash Run's Waddle Dees can stay.

Want: 5%
My most wanted characters aren't NPCs. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ While there are some NPCs I wouldn't mind being promoted, I also don't mind waiting for the next Smash installment.

Henry Fleming Prediction: 8%

 

[AlphaSSB]

CONCEPT: NPC'S BECOMING PLAYABLE​

Chance: 20%
- I mean, hey. It's Sakurai's game. He can do whatever the hell he wants. I'm sure that if the fans put up the preassure, he'd adjust a few scripts and make NPC's playable. Just look at Toon Link on the Spirit Tracks stage. When not in the fight, he's in the back, but when he does fight, someone takes over for him. Think about it. Replace Ridley's stage-hazard position with another formidable foe from Metroid, replace Chrom with another important Fire Emblem: Awakening character, and just disable Pokeball Pokemon or Assist Trophy NPCs from appearing whilst they are currently being played. Either that, or just go all-the-way and completely strip them of their Stage Hazard/Assist Trophy/Pokeball Pokemon/ status and give them full playable character status. It wouldn't be the best choice, but it'd be the easiest one.

Want: 100%
- I've always wanted to play as Ridley since I saw him in Melee's opening sequence, and I feel bad for Chrom ever since watching the Robin and Lucina reveal. Just seems so unfair. Plus, I'd love to see Midna, Zoroark, and others get onto the roster for once. That seems like a good idea for another Top 5 I could do... I'll keep you all posted

Prediction: Henry Fleming - 15% Chance/15% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Wolf Link/Shadow Wolf and Midna x5
- Werewolves are cool

 

[FancySmash]

So, do the NPC's deserve a...

Chance: 20% - Well, enough people have been voting for characters such as Waluigi and Ridely in the ballot. Personally, I've never really understood this, as I assumed that this dis-confirmed the characters, but I guess change is possible. Maybe more so assist trophies than stage bosses, and even then more so background characters than both of them.

Want 50% - Eh, no character's that I desperately want are assist trophies, bosses, or background characters. I admit that Ridely has the star power, and has been requested since Brawl, and to an extent, so does Waluigi. I wouldn't be mad if they made it in, but I won't beg for them.

Prediction: Ah, Henry Fleming. I only have one thing to say on that...
WHO?
Sorry, I have no clue who this is, and research I believe is failing me. I can't make a prediction today. When I find out more about this character, I'll vote and possibly predict. As for now, I just need to know who this is.

Nominations:
Roy Alt for Marth X3 (I know this is unlikely, but I just wanna see the possibility, as it might apply for future characters, and Roy has been "leaked")
This is the last Smash Bros Game X2

 

[IceBreakerXY]

on the phone(in the moives so gotta be quick)

Promoted NPc changes:10%
There not in the game for a reason and even if we voted for them i don't think sakurai would go through the trouble of doing something like this

Promoted NPC want:90%
Who wouldn't want ridley,takamaru,dillion,waluigi,saki,and ashley as characters i know i do and i would love to see them playable one day.

Harry fleming prediction:12.5%

slippy x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

A huge thank you to @ Arcanir for steering the conversation away from Sceptile. I'll try to remind everyone again, please do not debate characters after their has day ended. Remember that they each have their own support thread you can carry the discussion there.

Playable NPCs
Chance: 30% - Let's face it, the biggest problem that NPCs face is that no ones voting for them or supporting them anymore. The once huge fan support for characters like Takamaru, Ghirahim, or Dillon have all but vanished since they were announced as ATs. I'm personally not sure whether or not there's a predetermined rule that NPCs could not be promoted but the fact that their getting very little support doesn't help them at all.
Want: 50% - I'm neutral here.

Henry Fleming prediction: 6%

Nominations: Concept - DLC music pack x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[jahkzheng]

Hmmm... we're doing concepts now and my usual format for addressing characters simply would not work well for this. I mean, I could force it to work by speaking generally about all potential NPC characters that could convert into playable characters, but it would be awkward. Seems I'll just have to wing this. Cut out all the main points and cover my reasons after each rating.

Chance: Abstain

There are just waaaay too many variables for me to hand out a chance vote in confidence. My gut tells me to vote low, but my gut isn't a great reason. We'll just go over the apparent limitations and opportunities NPCs have in joining the roster.


Pros

- NPCs have models in game already to various degrees of detail. Some are simply unsophisticated stage elements while others are models animated with detail. Among ATs and Pokemon, the level of sophistication is broad. Some characters hardly move or have basic actions that are always the same. Other characters are more AI oriented and have relatively sophisticated models that can perform numerous adaptive actions. Ridley is a great example of a very sophisticated model for a NPC. Staryu on the other hand...

- NPCs have already achieved a form of representation. Like Little Mac in Brawl, some NPCs are actually just characters in waiting. Not all are "playable" material, but certainly some have a vibe like they could be.

- There's no reason to believe yet that NPCs have to stay that way. Simple as that, possible until proven otherwise.


Cons

- NPCs have apparently already had their fate decided. There's not universal evidence to this being fact, but we do have examples and explanations from Sakurai for both Chrom and Ridley, two of the most popular NPCs. He's indicated that their fate is sealed... for now. Ridley in particular, however, seems he's locked down to a stage long term. Chrom muses he'll get his chance some day, but that could be future DLC or Smash 5. The fact that Sakurai has explained why he's not in and decided to make him a part of Robin's Final Smash seems to indicate that he wanted a compromise for Chrom. Rather than all or nothing, he compromised with fans and threw him a cameo bone. Same with Ridley. Of course, not everyone is happy about that, but in Sakurai's eyes, it's a solution. Of course he could turn around and change his tune like he often has.

- NPCs being playable presents a conflict with their NPC selves. I know, there's that Toon Link joke, but not all NPC conflicts could be so easily resolved without making things awkward. Does Sakurai and co remove the NPC version of a character from a game if the character becomes playable? How much trouble is this really? Chrom in Robin's Final Smash would be awkward, but ignorable I guess. Ridley would be.... well, I hear people say they could just make the stage hazard "Meta Ridley". These solutions seem only like "half solutions". ATs and Pokemon in particular seem like they present awkward conflicts that demand the NPC version be removed for the playable character to be added. It's difficult to know if Sakurai would be willing to remove or change major content choices in his game or how he'd go about doing it through DLC. This is new territory admittedly.

- NPCs are generally not the most popular requests. It would be one thing if an NPC got huge support on the ballot. It would automatically improve it's odds of breaking the playable barrier. But that's the other thing... there's a real feeling that there is a major barrier imposed by Sakurai in making a character an NPC. It could be his explanations for Chrom and Ridley that has most people thinking that, "once an NPC, always an NPC". Incidentally, Chrom and Ridley are two of the most popular and Sakurai has basically removed them from ballot contention with his implications. After them, there's not a whole lot that even breaks top 20 in terms of newcomer requests. Ashley and Takamaru maybe. Top 40 likely adds names like Isabelle, Lyn, Viridi, and Zorark to the conversation, but that's far from real ballot contention. It's this barrier that Sakurai has evidentally built that has held back some NPCs support. Even the powerhouse that was Ridley pre-release, has had his support wane in light of his apparently set fate.


Want: 30%

There's really almost no NPC character in the game that I have to have, or even believe will be made playable. This rating is basically my hope for Ridely honestly, and even then I've mostly accepted his role in Smash 4. I've stopped caring that he's playable or not. Sakurai has given his reasons and I've basically accepted them until Smash 5. I've decided to focus on other characters with chances that aren't NPCs instead.

...

Funny, actually, that I'm supporting Krystal in Smash since she technically has an NPC role. I disregarded this however since it's proven to be an example of a kind of character representation that's not in conflict with the playable characters and thus doesn't appear to apply to this question. It is an example of precedent of a sort however. Fox and Falco appear in the Lylat and Orbital Gate Assault cameos, and yet they're playable... the latter requiring that they're not on the field of battle however. This basically makes any character appearing in these cameos fair game.

Likewise with Palutena's Guidence. Although, Viridi and Chrom have other limitations.


Conclusion

There's too many variables. Too many characters. Each deserves their own assessment with the weight of the barrier they face being different in a lot of cases. For instance, the evidence against Ridley is stacked high, but his popularity is still relatively good. Viridi feels much easier to work around if they chose to, but she suffers from having only a little support.

 

[colder_than_ice]

PLAYABLE NPCs
CHANCE: 21.01%
WANT: 65.22%​

Here's an example of something everyone wanted but no believed in. Next up we're rating Henry Fleming from Code Name S.T.E.A.M. also please predict what rating Paper Mario will get tomorrow.

 

[sogeki]

Henry Fleming:
Chance: 5%. I already said why in my prediction.
Want:0%.

Paper Mario Prediction: 37%.

Nominations: Concept: Characters coming out to promote new games.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Viridi feels much easier to work around if they chose to, but she suffers from having only a little support.

. . .I want to argue this point so badly but its true. Blegh.



Did this concept beat sh9vel knight in chance? Ouch.


As for henry. . .
Chance 7%
this was higher 2 minutes ago but i have realized that not only is fleming a literary character (technically) but his game hasnt even been released in japan yet. The fact that many membets here have said "who?" Just shows howlittle popularity he has as well.

It doesn't help the esrb might not be happy with a rifle


Want 55%
hes cool and has a lot of weapons to choose from. I havent played his game yet but something just feels right.

Now if this were lincoln it would be 100% no doubt


Paper mario predictions
42%

Noms
viridi 2
Roy 2
viewtiful joe 1

 

[Moydow]

Henry Fleming:

Chance: 12%
The majority response yesterday during the predictions was "who?" Judging by that alone, he doesn't seem very likely. He seems to have some support among those who have heard of him, though.

Want: Abstain
The game hasn't even been released outside of the US yet (not until the end of May), so it's far too early to say for most of the rest of us. (I personally think this should be delayed until then because of this, but I'm not going to argue either way... and we've already had the Inklings, so *shrug*)

Prediction - Paper Mario: 17.62%

Nominations: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

HENRY FLEMMING​

Chance: 5%
- Edited: Didn't realize Henry Fleming originated outside of gaming. I'd give him a zero, but I like my percents in fives, and he did get into a video-game in general

Want: 0%
- He is meh

Prediction: Paper Mario - 15% Chance/15% Want
- Note, my prediction does not reflect my opinion

Nomination: Wolf Link/Shadow Wolf and Midna x5
- Werewolves are cool

 

[Aetheri]

Nominations: Magikarp x5

GUYS CAN WE PLEASE

Henry Fleming

Chance: 3.5%
Don't feel like splaining myself this time around...too much typing for yesterday's rating....

Want: 0%
Don't care...

Prediction: 21.5%
Paper Mario
Grumpy Cat's getting to me.....|:<

Nominations:
Wolf Link & Midna x5
So Dixie Kong and Shantae would use their hair in their attacks, eh? But can they turn their hair into a FIST OF DEATH!!! (this is some Chuck Norris sh*t right here)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Fleming:

Chance: 1%

Sorry, who? Oh, the literary character that was adapted into a steampunk game which is flying a bit under the radar since it hasn't even been released and whose claim to fame is functionality with the amiibo that are next to impossible to get? That one?
Just see everything we all said for the inklings, and tack on the obscurity factor of Shantae/Shovel Knight.​

Want: 0%

As above.
​

Prediction: Paper Mario

Chance: 32.5% Want: 42.5%
​

Nominations:

Flying Purple Samus'-Parents Eater x5
Speaking of, he's got a stock icon. Why don't we have that as a smiley option?​

 

[Kalimdori]

Spoiler: My Chance Ratings

To compare with my other ratings. I'm of the opinion that Nintendo will milk the DLC hype train for as much cash as they can, and recent events have only strengthened that notion. As such, I expect plenty of DLC characters.

Chance: 99%
Want: 100%

King K. Rool Chance 80%
Want: 75%

Bandanna Dee Chance: 70%
Want: 95%

NPC DLC Character Chance: 65%
Want: 100%

Isaac Chance: 65%
Want: 85%

Captain Toad Chance: 58%
Want: 90%

Chance: 50%
Want: 80%

Inkling Chance: 50%
Want: 20%

Rayman Chance: 40%
Want: 100%

Chance: 40%
Want: 60%

Dixie Chances: 39%
Want: 49%

Sceptile: 25%
Want: 100%

Impa Chance: 25%
Want: 60%

Banjo Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Krystal Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Quote Chance: 10%
Want: 95%

Shantae Chance: 5%
Want: 15%

Shovel Knight Chance: 3%
Want: 70%

Henry Fleming Chance: 1%

I will never give a character a 0%. Smash has proven time and time again that anything is possible, and giving a 0% for anything is akin to claiming that you can see the future, and there is no foreseeable outcome where this can occur. And I'm not that delusional!

I will also never give a character a decimal percent, because I hate math

But I was very, verrrrrrrryyyyyy tempted to do so with Henry Fleming.

Why?

Henry Fleming is not a video game character. He is the main character of the classic literature book shown above. (And breaks our rule of "A character must originate in a video game", why are we rating him?)

And if that wasn't enough, his game hasn't sold well, hasn't been released in Japan yet (Probably due to the fact that it's the most AMERICAN **** YEAH game in existence), and it wasn't even that well received. There is no way he will do well on the Smash Ballot, he's got very little to draw from for a moveset, and, honestly, he's a bit of a dull character.

Henry Fleming's a perfect example of why the Mii Fighters were created. Make a Mii look like him, give him the Steampunk Gunner outfit, and BAM! Henry Fleming!

Want: 5%

Like I said, dull character. Don't like him, didn't really like his game. Only reason he isn't an absolute zero is because his inclusion could open the door to Abe Lincoln's A.B.E. bot cameoing in some form. Final Smash, AT, Stage Hazard, etc. And the very idea of Abraham Lincoln decimating the battlefield while yelling "EXECUTIVE DECISION!" makes Henry Fleming's inclusion more then worth it.

Paper Mario Predictions: 11%
Dunno how he'll do, but he won't do well.

Noms:
Pichu x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Henry Fleming
Chance- 2%
I remember his game being announced, and I remember that the Fire Emblem amiibos would be compatible. The game's made so small of a splash, though, that I didn't even realize that it had come out (NA only at the moment? At least according to Wikipedia). I didn't realize Henry Fleming was a character from it until I looked him up. As someone who knows quite a bit about Nintendo characters… that's pretty obscure. Not sure if this guy is going to get any votes other than the people who voted for them in this game.
Want- 0%
Maybe the game's great (reviews suggest it isn't anything that special), but I haven't played it myself. I'm not that interested in a recent, obscure character from a novel.

Paper Mario Predictions- 16%
People will talk about having three Marios in a game, though that probably belongs more in the Want category than the Chance.

Nominations:
Ridley x2
Roy x2
Crono x1

 

[Deleted member]

Henry Fleming (Codename: S.T.E.A.M.)

Chance: 5% 10%

Let's review the requirements for a character to appear in Smash and see if Fleming qualifies.

• Character must have originated from a video game.

Fleming is based on literary public domain, and to my knowledge, Sakurai and his team have never worked with public domain in a Smash game before. The closest the series has ever gotten was the Donbe and Hikari trophy in Melee, two characters whose game was influenced by Japanese fairy tales.

EDIT: Never mind. Kawashima is a real person and an Assist Trophy in Smash 4. Argument invalid.​

• Character must have appeared on a Nintendo platform at least once.

This interpretation of Fleming is from a first (though I've heard some people claim second) party Nintendo game, so no problems here.​

Aside from Fleming being public domain, I'll also have to take points off for Codename: S.T.E.A.M. not being commercially successful, much like W101. Similar to the latter game's protagonist, Wonder Red, he does have his share of supporters, so he at least has a chance, albeit a slim one.

Want: 50%

Codename S.T.E.A.M. doesn't interest me in the slightest, so I'd be indifferent to Fleming's inclusion.

Prediction: Paper Mario - 10%

I can already imagine pessimists claiming that Sakurai wouldn't dare to add a third Mario.

Nomination: Simon Belmont x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@ BluePikmin11 gets the extra nominations today.

 

[Seanp12]

Henry Fleming
Chance: 5%
Originally, I would have given him ten, but seeing so many people who don't even know who he is lowered my expectations further. Plus, Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. has pretty much bombed. Sad. I liked the idea. Besides that, if that game has any character in Smash, I expect it to be the Great Emancipator.

Want: 25%
I'm frankly much more interested in Lincoln. He has more name recognition anyway.

Paper Mario
Prediction: 45%
I think most people will believe that Mario has had its day. I don't think that's wise, but that's what they'll think.

Nominations:
Abraham Lincoln (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x1
Ridley x1
Concept: Any Star Fox character DLC released near Star Fox U release date x3

 

[BluePikmin11]

Uuuuuuuuhhhh??? Honestly what's stopping Henry Fleming at all? Being based on a fictional book character? Come on, we have one based on a real person (Dr. Kawashima) and almost everyone thought he would never appear in the game at all because of that, it would be no different for Henry if he were to appear in the game in some form.

@ BluePikmin11 gets the extra nominations today.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!
I'll be deciding who to nominate tomorrow, this is pretty exciting.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Henry Fleming
Chance - 6%
Very doubtful. Steam wasn't too highly promoted or received, and he's not got a lot of fan support, either.

Want - 5%
Naw. I only played the demo, but even from there I liked neither him nor the game.

Nominate Anna x2, Toon Zelda x3.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Day 20: Agents of S.T.E.A.M, deploy!

I feel everyone's going to get those extra nominations given they were all around the 10% range.
So I'll say 13.20% for Henry's chances.
He's from a new Nintendo IP, and he's certainly got potential to draw from to make him a unique fighter, such as a long-range moveset that fluctuates in power based on how much steam Henry has left. He could also draw from the other Agents of S.T.E.A.M like John Henry or Lion. The main problems I foresee with Henry at the moment is that he too, is a young Nintendo character, originally a literary character which is now public domain - also, Codename S.T.E.A.M's spotlight of popularity was captured immediately by the Inklings, who people are more familiar with.

Wants: 57%
I like Henry and Codename S.T.E.A.M, so perhaps if Nintendo decides to keep the series alive and successful, I wouldn't mind seeing Henry playable. But if it had to be, I wouldn't mind waiting for Henry in Smash 5 and by then Codename S.T.E.A.M becomes more prominent as a series.

Nominations:
Roy X5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

@ BluePikmin11 gets the extra nominations today.

Dang it! I was so freaking close!

 

[Kalimdori]

Uuuuuuuuhhhh??? Honestly what's stopping Henry Fleming at all? Being based on a fictional book character? Come on, we have one based on a real person (Dr. Kawashima) and almost everyone thought he would never appear in the game at all because of that, it would be no different for Henry if he were to appear in the game in some form.

Lack of popularity? Lack of support in the Smash Ballot? Catered to an American audience? A rather lackluster array of abilities to draw a moveset from?

Take your pick.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I'm only issuing the fictional book/real life character argument, and I suggest you change the rating a bit because that argument doesn't work.

 

[Seanp12]

Lack of popularity? Lack of support in the Smash Ballot? Catered to an American audience? A rather lackluster array of abilities to draw a moveset from?

Take your pick.

These are all reasons why I think Lincoln is more likely. He's actually well-known, even if it's not because of his game. He probably has ballot support just because Sakurai put the idea into people's heads through the Mii Fighter announcement. He makes more sense to have a moveset drawing from the entire team, since he comissioned them, and he's stinkin' Abraham Lincoln for crying out loud!

Even so, both Lincoln and Fleming's biggest problem is their game's unfortunately rotten sales. Doesn't mean I still don't want Lincoln just for the fun of it. I'll have to settle with the Lincoln Mii fighter, I guess.

 

[sogeki]

Just a little thing I did.

For every 5 percent, someone got one point.
The only exceptions were the ICS and Dee because they were extremely close to the cutoff.