Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Delzethin]

...Uh...crap, I don't have a witty intro this time. No music that fits perfectly, either, so...time to wing it.

-♪-
(What? It's my favorite Battlefield theme. >_>)

Concept: NPC Characters Promoted to Playable via DLC

Chance: 12%
I still remember the Smash Direct back...wow, it's been over a year now. They started talking about Assist Trophies, and then they went down the list of the characters that got the honor this time. Part of me was excited to see all the new faces...and another part of me went "damn, people are going to be mad about some of these". But now, could these characters that fell short in the developers' eyes make it in without having to wait for Smash 5?

While we can't get into the minds of the dev team to say for sure...the odds probably aren't good. Sakurai is a man with a very distinct mindset and a vision for his games that he goes above and beyond to reach, even if it means putting himself in mental and physical pain. There was probably a lot of deliberation involved in getting the games to be just right...and...I don't know if he'd be willing to shake things up so drastically and risk compromising his vision. Promoting a character from summon to playable between games is one thing, but to do so during a game's cycle would involve either going into the game and altering its code for those who purchase the DLC so that the summons or stage elements no longer appear or looking the other way as the character has both playable and non-playable versions running around. I don't know if Sakurai would be willing to do either.

Even beyond that, there are still other issues. The overall thought among the fanbase--at least the more dedicated parts of it--is that (with the exception of Ridley, apparently) they're super-unlikely and not worth nominating. That lack of support will hurt them compared to the characters who aren't in the games as NPCs. Not only that, but the fact that there're so many characters being nominated could hurt their chances in and of itself. If you were one of the developers, wouldn't you hesitate to do all the work necessary to make an NPC playable when there were so many other compelling options that wouldn't require that? The current summons and stage elements don't even have much of a moveset, just a few animations and usually just a couple attacks (with the exception of Ridley again), so the idea that it'd save them time isn't even true!

Again, I don't know exactly what the developers think on the matter, but based on what we know it doesn't seem very likely. But even despite that...the votes going for these characters could still mean something in the long run. Takamaru looks like an early frontrunner for Smash 5, and any votes could bolster his chances and help Sakurai realize he's not all that obscure now. And of course...enough fan support just might get him to change his mind about Ridley in time for the next game.

Want: 20%
To be honest? Most of them don't interest me all that much. There might be some personal bias involved--the characters I'm most interested in aren't in the game already, and if the NPCs were suddenly an option, they'd have a lot more competition to deal with...along with likely being left in the dust behind the bandwagons the NPCs would inevitably gain.

Why is it still 20%, though? Because, well...I have Wolf Link & Midna among my longshot characters. If it meant they had a legitimate chance, it'd be a silver lining. Even if it hurt the chances of my other characters, I'd still have a dog in the fight.

Heheh. See what I did there?


Henry Fleming Prediction: 9.74%
Code Name: S.T.E.A.M. hasn't taken off very well, and so his support is falling apart. He'll probably also lose some points for being a public domain character who originated from a novel.


Nominations:
Speaking of which...

Wolf Link & Midna x5

Worth doing it just to gauge want ratings, at least.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

NPlayC:

chance: 10%

-It could happen, AT's can either co-exist in a darker color scheme or be deleted.

Want: 100%

So many different, unique and cool character are locked into a role where nobody cares about them.

I at least hope in Smash 5, characters that would actually be impossible be imcluded as NPC, not completely valid characters like Waaster, Kololimpah and Toad.

Murica strikes again: 17.4%

Magolor x5

 

[NebulaWords]

DAY 19 : Playable NPCs
Chance : 20%
I don't think it's going to happen BUT just because it may not happen now doesn't mean it'll never happen.
Let me explain as best as I can.
NPCs in Smash have been given a specefic role to play in. It probably means that these character are better as Assist Trophees, Bosses,ect... then as a Playable fighter. Or that they don't have enough potential as a fighter but they still want them in the game so they give this role at this NPC.
Let's focus on Assist Trophees, mostly during Brawl times, you are probably rolling your eyes on what you know what I'm going to talk about but it's necessary.
Meet Little Mac', the Assist Trophee in Brawl. His role is to go out and punch his foes. Nothing else.
Years later, Little Mac' got a promotion. And a big one. He became a fighter.

The point I'm trying to show is that I seriously doubt that there is going to have Playable NPCs as DLC this year. But, who knows, there's a slight chance that they will in the future. Be it in DLC or in another Smash game.

Want : 0%
The crowd let out a big gasp, what ? This girl just tried to defend the ones who wants playable NPCs and her want is a big zero ? What's going on ?!
I'll be honest here. It's not that I don't want these playable NPCs but I don't want them because :
1) I have no NPC characters that I want to see as a playable character as for now.
2) NPCs are not ONE character, no specefic one. I don't think it's great if I give a good score in Want when there's probably some I REALLY don't want to see as fighters. (I'm not going to name them, I have some in mind). Call it selfish if you must but that's my opinion.
But to be forgiven, I'll add an extra 10% in chance.

Prediction : Henry Fleming (Oops, forgot to do this !)
Chance : 30%
Promotion : Geno (Super Mario RPG) x5

 

[Kenith]

Oh, I've been waiting to rate this.

Promoted NPC's:
Chance: 5%.
---
Let me get this out of the way right now: An Assist Trophy (or Ridley) getting promoted to playable through DLC is NOT impossible. That is yet another "rule" established by fans because it has yet to be broken, just like the rules that came before it.
That being said, the chances of us getting a character that also happens to BE an Assist Trophy is...well, quite low.
Most people, when approached with the idea of the likes of Ghirahim, Takamaru, Goroh, etc. becoming a playable character, think that means the Assist Trophy in their likeness will be completely cut from the game.

Frankly, I have no idea why. There's plenty of workarounds that DON'T involve cutting existing content...the most obvious and simple being to simply restrict the Assist Trophy appearing at the same time as the player character.

This would have a infinitesimal effect on gameplay, because if you remove one Assist Trophy appearing, there's nearly 50 others that could take his place...and you would never, ever notice, because you can't ever predict what Assist Trophy will come out.

The other workaround is to add an indicator differentiating an Assist Trophy from the same character. Indicators such as adding a unique title to Assist Trophies (AT) or having the Assist Trophy being a greyed out version of the existing character (like same-color and character team battles in previous Smash games).
I don't like this one because it's unnecessarily complicated, but it works too.

So those are the workarounds. But the real question is this:
Which character would be worth doing a workaround for? In terms of DLC, there's no character that's already an Assist Trophy that is trending as a Ballot contestant, nor is there particular demand for any of these characters. These character are popular...however nobody supports them anymore because they think that Assist Trophy is the ultimate end for that character's chances in Smash 4.
What this means while there's absolutely no issue with an Assist Trophy being made playable, there's not enough demand for this to happen, and thusly Nintendo will just look to less problematic and more popular characters to develop instead.

On the flip side, it's possible that Sakurai actively reserves a DLC slot for a Assist Trophy-Made character. In that case, who does he choose then? The most popular suggestion, or the one with the most potential?
----

tl;dr There's no rule saying an Assist Trophy can't be promoted through DLC and there are simple workarounds to prevent confusion between characters and their Assist Trophies, but the lack of support for these characters, mostly due to lack of faith for them being promoted, means that it's unlikely we'll see an Assist Trophy get promoted anyway.

Want: 1000000%.

But holy ****, I would love for it to happen. There are SO many great character Assist Trophies that I would love to see get promoted.
Namely, Midna, Ghirahim, Takamaru, Midna, Ashley, Midna, Phosphora, Ghirahim, and Midna.
Oh, and let's not forget Isabelle! Also, Midna.

...In all seriousness, though, my heart will always remain with Midna and Ghirahim. If one of them gets into Smash, ESPECIALLY in Smash 4, I will be absolutely ecstatic and my life will completely completely complete.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Henry Fleming prediction: 5.5%. People who slightly overrated him mixed in with the people who will say, "wait, who?"
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nominations:
Jill Valentine x2
(Oh hey, look who it is!) Wolf Link and Midna x3

 

[ShinyRegice]

NPC promotion to playable chances: 25%
I don't give a very high chance score because I simply don't think anyone who's an NPC was ever planned to be playable, maybe considered, but I doubt they were planned, probably for different reasons according to Sakurai himself - too obscure, not enough legacy within their own series, unworkable as a fighter, etc. That said, some of these characters get animations that could clearly be used for playable role - some Assist Trophies like Magnus, Waluigi, Takamaru and Ghirahim seem like they're built just like a playable character, and don't forget Ridley who has a lot of moves similar to actual character moves. They could promote to playable if there's enough support, but considering my pessimism towards how Sakurai saw them in the first place, I have a feeling it's not very likely to happen. My chances score mostly comes from the fact there would be some huge modeling and animation work already done in some NPCs.

NPC promotion to playable want: 32%
There's not a lot of NPC in SSB4 I would be interested to see playable besides Ridley (mostly for the hypestorm coming from the announcement) or Midna (best sidekick ever in Zelda, I think she'd be a great character choice despite being a one-off). Maybe Ashley or Takamaru to a much further extent. Anyone else doesn't really interest me at all.
Edit: maybe Riki as well, though that's not saying very much.

Henry Fleming prediction: 12.02%
A new IP from Nintendo whose promotion seems to be nowhere near as pushed as Splatoon. I'm still excepting a >10% overall chances score because he suffers from neither "muh Microsoft" or "muh indie".

Nominating:
Concept: DLC characters get custom moves (including Mewtwo through patching) x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Chance: 5%
Want: 100% (Ridley)

Henry Fleming prediction: 8%

Nominations: DLC Alt Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[FalKoopa]

PROMOTED NPCs:
CHANCE: 33%
WANT: ALL THE PERCENT

I don't have a lot of faith about this happening. A lot of ATs had large support bases before their disconfirmation, but sadly, they have died down since then, so they likely won't make a significant dent in the Smash Ballot. Technically speaking, it's certainly not impossible, but it's probably much more likely that Sakurai will save them for next time, rather than add them as DLC.

As for want:

• Waluigi
• Tingle
• Lyn
• Isabelle
• Ashley
• Knuckle Joe

Too many of my wanted character ended up as Assist Trophies . I'll be overjoyed if even one of them make the jump to playable.

HENRY FLEMING PREDICTION: 8%

IVYSAUR × 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Spoiler

K. Rool
Day missed. Absent.

Banjo-Kazooie
Chance: 9%, Want: 85%

Isaac
Chance: 55%, Want: 75%

Bandana Dee
Chance: 40%, Want: 100%

Captain Toad
Chance: 45%, Want: 100%

Krystal
Chance: 25%, Want: 50%

Dixie Kong
Chance: 66%, Want: 100%

Impa
Chance: 28%, Want: 100%

Shantae
Chance: 1%, Want: 5%

Inklings
Chance: 62%, Want: 70%

Rayman
Chance: 33%, Want: 90%


Day missed. Whoops.


Chance: 100%, Want: 80%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0.3%, Want: 0%

Quote
Chance: 0.5%, Want: 3%


Chance: 5%, Want: 10%

Sceptile
Chance: 20%, Want: 55%

Wonder RedChance: 15%, Want: 68%

Promoted NPCs
Chance: 25%
So first of all I don't think any ATs are going to get made playable. Likewise for any Pokeball Pokemon. Or Final Smashes(Nook, Dunban and Chrom I'm looking at you). Nor Ridley. Nor even Toad, which pains me.

But I could see a background character easily making it in. I don't think Cranky's silhouette would be enough of a reason to not include him should Sakurai WANT Cranky for example.

If we count Waddle Dee as a Smash Run enemy, I don't think that alone would be enough to keep Bandana Waddle Dee off the battlefield.

Want: 100%
My most wanted list prior to any AT reveals?

1. Toad: Once again demoted to Peach's meatshield despite Toadsworth being more fitting and with less fans. Infuriating considering he's one of the few well recognised Nintendo characters still not in. Least Captain Toad shone some hope down from the heavens.
   
   
2. Meowth: Once again demoted to Pokeball despite easily being one of the most well known Pokemon due to the anime. The anime that has influenced Lucario, Charizard, Pikachu, Mewtwo, Pichu, Squirtle and Jigglypuff's popularity. That one. The fact he's not gotten a second look is a little depressing, but I've come to accept he just won't ever happen.
   
   
3. Samurai Goroh: My ideal second F-Zero character, essentially a Wario-esque rival character to Captain Falcon, Goroh would of been chock full of personality and would of been one of the few swordsmen I cared about. Also better to include as a character than Black Shadow who was only wanted to replace Ganondorf's current moveset. Again, Goroh ended up an AT. Doomed to AT forever due to F-Zero being dead.
   
   
4. Dillon: Assist Trophied. He's a good Assist Trophy, but one of the few new Nintendo IPs I really liked.

You better believe I'd love to see all four of these guys get in. Whilst Captain Toad is a close enough replacement for me for Toad(with additional abilities no less!), Meowth and Goroh I'd easily rank above Impa, Dixie and Bandana Waddle Dee for personal want, with Dillon ranking slightly below.

Regarding Ridley...I don't care for him myself. But I'd like to see him get in just so we never have to witness another Ridley For Smash thread ever again. Ridley talk has become repetitive and dull and there's a few genuinely good Ridley fans I'd like to see rewarded for their behaviour last year as other characters were being sent to the graveyard.

Henry Fleming prediction: 6.5%
Project S.T.E.A.M. has only just been released in the UK(I think anyway) and I haven't seen it get much excitement or attention anywhere yet.

Nominations:
X3
X2

 

[Martingale]

Andross Deconfirmed?!? NPC to Playable Character Concept Chances
Chance: 48%
I am READY to eat criticism for this. So ready. Fill my bowl with a healthy breakfast of criticism so I can continue working on my in-depth ready-to-roll-out Magikarp playable argument piece. Anyway, enough ado about nothing, let's dive in!

Waluigi. One word, several waaaas, and a heaping pile of votes on the Smash Ballot. Ridley. Too big, too bossy, not gonna happen despite fans baying for him for years. Takamaru. Um, who is this guy? ...Anyway. A lot of Assist Trophies have reasonable fan support, and could see inclusion. Now, I know folks will say "but they're already in as bosses and assist trophies!" Okay, that's true. So, why not do stuff like:

-Freeze the character from appearing in AT/Pokeball while they are being played. Hell, you could include 50% of the assist trophies and pokeballs in the game, get them into a god-knows-how-many Smash, and still have reasonably small ratios of appearance for the other characters in these items. If we include one or two in DLC, and they get frozen from the AT or Pokeball cycle while in battle, nobody would even NOTICE. Most folk here don't even play with items on, so the idea that because a character is one of these roles doesn't even really come into play for most.

-Replace Ridley on the Pyrosphere stage with Meta Ridley; he only gains his super Meta Ridley attacks upon sapping that energy though. Really, I don't see why this would be essential if Ridley is scaled down to a gangly Charizard, but it's a strong argument against his inclusion. Again, Pyrosphere is "uncompetitive" so folk here wouldn't likely notice the change.

-If they're in Smash Run, yadda yadda yadda. Freeze them like an 8-hammer.

My only argument against character inclusion from NPC status is in Final Smashes. Chrom's screwed over by his no-holds-barred Palutena's Guidance roasting, and Tom Nook is ridiculously unlikely to work on his own. Crippling Debt would be a good Neutral B though. But the final smashes of Robin and Villager would lose a lot of character if these were elevated to playables.

Overall I think folk are just quickly dismissing this as "I don't see it happening." Because everyone saw Pac-Man happening, right? A reminder, Sakurai and his team are smart. They will come up with alternatives if people so desperately want the characters in battle.

Want: 5%
None of the assist trophies are a character I desire, though I would like to see Darkrai take the stage over Lucario in later games. Darkrai is the only villainous Pokemon, trapping children in eternal nightmares and even straight-up killing someone for lols in one game. Mewtwo was antagonised by humans and isn't really a villain. But I digress. Darkrai would be cool in a later game. All other characters I could pass on.

Henry Fleming Prediction: 11.214%
Codename Steam doesn't quite have enough following yet to deserve a Smash character. Besides, why are we picking this guy when you could straight up play as Abraham goddamn Lincoln? Anyway, I don't see great things happening for him.

In lieu of Abe Lincoln's damn fine top hat, another top hatted hero will do. Five Professor Layton votes please!

 

[A Distant Demon]

Chance
.5%
the only chance i see this happening is if there are more than 8 newcomers as dlc or something which is also unlikely as hell.

first we know ridley is out. Its been said by sakurai why. clone ridley is all ridleys for some ridiculous reason.

2nd most AT certainly are getting less votes in the ballot than other characters. Waluigi seems to be the exception. (Who has also been given a jab at his status by sakurai)

So for one to become playable they would essentially have to pick a character with less votes in the ballot and undo a largr of their work. RIP ai and model.

Or they could pick a character that will, from what they see in the ballot, be more popular and hasnt already been decided on not being playable.


Want 999. 100%
Ridley
dillon
lyn
chrom as a clone/alt/unique idc
some would argue viridi.

Not much to say here


Prediction 20%

Noms
2 roy
2 viridi
1 viewtiful joe

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Promoted NPCs
Chance: 10%
I honestly believe that I don't think this will happen.
Yes, we have Little Mac, Charizard, and King Dedede, but they weren't playable in previous iterations and later became playable. However, we are talking about Smash 4, which is the latest iteration. So far, there hasn't been a case where an Assist Trophy or Poke Ball Pokemon become playable. So, we don't know if Sakurai should agree that they should get the upgrade or remain how he intended them to be.
I should also mention that the demand for these characters is a bit lower than before. Characters like King K. Rool still have on-going demand because they have the hope and potential to become playable as their only role is a trophy. In cases like Takamaru, he's an Assist Trophy, which is a very defined role and thus made his support and hope die out.
I think that if some NPC could be playable, I think that Assist Trophies and Poke Ball Pokemon have the best chances. I doubt that stage hazards like Ridley will be playable because that would mean that they would need to change the stage and characters that are a part of another character's move will mean the original character's moveset needs to be tinkered with (such as how Chrom is in Robin's Final Smash).

Want: 100%
Lyn, Takamaru, Riki, Toad, Starfy, etc...
Yeah, I would love for them to get the upgrade.

Henry Fleming Prediction: .93%
I don't know how to assess this.

Nominations: DLC Alt Costumes for Characters 5x

 

[DNeon]

NPC Promotion

Chance: 85%

If they've made it to assist trophies then they've got enough potential for some moves in the game, and assist trophies are easily replaceable. I don't see how Nintendo would be too tied to their position as an assist trophy to move them if there's enough fan support and move potential to upgrade them. Stage bosses are much more difficult to replace, but an assist trophy isn't attached to the flow of the game in any way other than being a possible item.

Want: 100%

There's a so much tied up in assist trophies.

Henry Fleming

Prediction: 5%

Don't even know them, had 1 game?

Votes: 5x Advance Wars character

 

[BluePikmin11]

Well... damn... I'm surprised with the ratings here, Kalimodori made a large analysis of how it's a made up rule. I'm gonna have to think about my rating again. :L

 

[Sarki Soliloquy]

Spoiler: Captain Hotcakes's Ratings History (as of 5/1/15)

Character Chance Ratings

1: Wolf - 97.5%
2: Rayman - 60%
3: Snake - 55%
4: Inkling - 50%
5: Sceptile - 45%
5: Krystal - 45%
6: Dixie Kong - 43%
7: Wonder Red - 40%
8: Impa - 40.5%
9: Ice Climbers - 30%
10: Captain Toad - 30%
11: Quote - 21.5%
12: Shovel Knight - 20%
13: Shantae - 20.5%

Character Want Ratings

1: Shovel Knight - 100%
1: Wolf - 100%
2: Sceptile - 90.5%
3: Shantae - 87%
4: Wonder Red - 86.5%
5: Snake - 85%
5: Impa - 85%
6: Ice Climbers - 80%
7: Inkling - 30%
8: Rayman - 25%
9: Quote - 23%
10: Krystal - 20%
10: Dixie Kong - 20%
11: Captain Toad: 5.5%

Concept Chance Ratings

1: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 65.7%

Concept Want Ratings

1: Any NPC Becomes Playable - 50.5%

Abstains (Inactivity)

King K. Rool
Banjo-Kazooie
Isaac

Abtsains (Indifference)

n/A

"Deconfirm them all!" -Nikonomar

RATINGS

Concept: Any NPC Becomes Playable

Chance - 65.7%: This will be limited to Assist Trophies, PokéballMon, Stage Hazards/Bosses, Stage Background Cameos, and Character Moveset Cameos. Trophies do not count, for they are collectible forms of characters that serve function in or outside the game. Which really sucks since that kills any thoughts about full-on stage-vs-stage battles. Oh, the hype that would be garnered!

The thing about all the NPC roles provided for Smash is that they conveniently allow for characters who wouldn't make it as playable (for whatever reasons) appear within the game. Out of the stable of all these summed up, there's a fair number of characters who satisfy Sakurai's criteria enough to pass up a playable promotion. There's certainly enough even for just one.

After all, Sakurai hasn't made any Word of God statements discrediting any NPC from being promoted. Perhaps further evidence of this is that Toon Link was thought to be deconfirmed with Conductor Link's cameo on Spirit Tracks. Later, fans were baffled by his appearance, seeing as Sakurai had fooled them into thinking he was reduced to a non-playable role. Only to be replaced by Alfonzo when he's in play. Not to mention that Little Mac was an Assist Trophy in Brawl, and got a major overhaul and was teased for a long time up to his reveal as a playable character.

Much like @ Kalimdori , I too study game design. Granted, I'm yet to have work experience. But I have a better idea of how a character's "promotion process" might be like. For all roles described in the first paragraph, the workload for making them a full character would be reduced roughly to 25% or 45% completion from start of development. Much of this is due to elements already being provided in the game across all three essential disciplines (art, design, programming). A 3D model and rig means making all other animations for the character is reduced by a significant margin. Attack animation(s) provided could be converted easily into a special attack(s) or tweaked to work as one. Additional animations & assets would be generated and worked through. A code to remove or replace the character's appearance when in play would be implemented. Not to mention there's already code to start working the character from, possibly with special moves to be used. Even with all of this, it'll still take months of manpower to generate all other character elements and flavor that would not be much different from developing a character from scratch. Then comes the strenuous playtesting process before the character is launched.

Despite all this convenience, Sakurai may feel that it's unnecessary to bring up characters who have already been assigned defined roles in the game, possibly seeing it as redundant. And because of these character being classified as deconfirmed, the fans have banked on them being unplayable. This significantly decreases their fan demand right from the get-go, making it harder for them to climb poll rankings than it already would be. Without knowing how Sakurai thinks about this matter, we may have dug ourselves into the mud for all those characters.

Want - 50.5%: Absolutely neutral on this. I tacked on an extra .05 because I want to see the concept disproven. The game has been out for less than a year and most pre-release speculation gripes have been cauterized by now. I accept where every character stands and am even thankful some of them still had a role instead of being no-shows.

However, with something as prolithic as the Fighter Ballot, I am in favor of inducting new characters and getting harder-to-reach characters, such as Banjo-Kazooie or an indie character. All these NPCs have had their chance and it's better they stick with it until Smash 5. Besides, most of the characters I want or would be excited to get are cut vets or newcomers.

Is there any character I want badly out of this lot? Eh, I'd be behind Chrom if Roy's even a possibility. You may remember I was one of his staunchest supporters and even made a damn-good, unique moveset in the face of Sakurai's shallow-mindedness. And yes, I still think Lucina's place is undeserved to this day. I don't understand why people make such a big deal out of Toad when we have mutliple species characters like Yoshi & Pikachu. Peach just having one, even if it's THE Toad we know from flagship Mario titles, is not enough to hamper his chances. If I had to pull an Alfonzo for either, put Morgan in Robin's Final Smash in place of Chrom and either keep Toad or use Toadsworth instead. He's the royal retainer, after all.

For most other characters such as Takamaru, Waluigi, Lyn, Viridi, Tails, etc., I can't see myself having too much of a problem with them. Judging each by their own merits shouldn't be too different from any other non-NPC character.

PREDICTION

Henry Fleming

Chance - 25.36%
Want - 37.40%

NOMINATIONS

*Concept: No DLC Characters After Fighter Ballot x3
Galacta Knight x2

 

[Aetheri]

When you bring up Chrom's moveset potential I find it laughably ironic that the reason he wasn't made playable is because he'd be too close to Marth...'Oh hello Lucina'...
However as random as she seems, Lucina is apparently extremely popular in Japan and had a huge demand to be included into the game hence why she's in...

 

[A Distant Demon]

When you bring up Chrom's moveset potential I find it laughably ironic that the reason he wasn't made playable is because he'd be too close to Marth...'Oh hello Lucina'...
However as random as she seems, Lucina is apparently extremely popular in Japan and had a huge demand to be included into the game hence why she's in...

I know this is joking but It wasnt chrom vs lucina but robin vs chrom. Robin won and lucina became a marth alt.

People get this wrong and im making an example of you.

 

[Kenith]

I know this is joking but It wasnt chrom vs lucina but robin vs chrom. Robin won and lucina became a marth alt.
People get this wrong and im making an example of you.

Exactly...the conditions for Lucina and Robin getting in are completely different and every time I hear "Chrom was passed for Lucina?" I legitimately want to pull my hair out >.>

 

[Aetheri]

I know this is joking but It wasnt chrom vs lucina but robin vs chrom. Robin won and lucina became a marth alt.

People get this wrong and im making an example of you.

I didn't actually say Lucina was put in over Chrom...Chrom was excluded because of similarities to other characters and Robin had a more unique moveset to work with...Lucina was added because of fan demand, but she ended up being pretty much the same as Marth (besides no tippers and being slightly floatier than Marth) when she was added anyways...so Sakurai basically contradicted himself...especially when he added Dark Pit and Dr. Mario as well...hence the whole irony thing...

 

[RobinOnDrugs]

I know I'm late, but oh well.

Promoted NPCs

Chance: 0%

I don't see any of the ATs being promoted through DLC in Sm4sh at all. It would be weird to see someone like Takamaru summon himself via assist trophy. Same with anybody who appears in a Final Smash (Chrom) or in a pokeball. It's just not going to happen for this game. That said...

Want: 50%

I'm at least neutral about seeing somebody being promoted in the next installment of the series.

Votes: 5x DLC Music Pack

 

[A Distant Demon]

I didn't actually say Lucina was put in over Chrom...Chrom was excluded because of similarities to other characters and Robin had a more unique moveset to work with...Lucina was added because of fan demand, but she ended up being pretty much the same as Marth (besides no tippers and being slightly floatier than Marth) when she was added anyways...so Sakurai basically contradicted himself...especially when he added Dark Pit and Dr. Mario as well...hence the whole irony thing...

but he didnt because lucina wasnt originally planned. She was an alt just like aplh and not an actual newcomer. It was originally just Robin.

by coincidence she was upgraded. he didnt contradict himself in anyway. Lucina wasnt meant to be original.

 

[Aetheri]

but he didnt because lucina wasnt originally planned. She was an alt just like aplh and not an actual newcomer. It was originally just Robin.

by coincidence she was upgraded. he didnt contradict himself in anyway. Lucina wasnt meant to be original.

Doesn't really matter if she wasn't planned or not she's still got her own spot on the roster as a separate character, despite having an almost identical moveset to Marth hence my whole point about irony...

 

[4theRECORD]

NPC Promotions concept

chance:15%
I'm with the group that dosen't really think this is likely. I would go over my reasons but it's 12:00 am here and I can't bother to give a lengthy explanation on my reasons. Sorry.

want:1%
This is partly due to a part of me thinking a character getting both NPC status and PC status is a little unfair, and another part of me feeling this is going to end up in mass confusion, which ain't my thing. Threw the 1% in because Ridley and Takamaru.

Predictions: Henry Flaming? 10%
Who even is this guy?

Nominations:
Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Toon612Link]

Promoted NPC's
Chance: 100%
I say this because it has already happened with Toon Link, Alfonzo can replace anyone. (That's not too big of course)

Want: 100%
Only for Ashley though... I don't care about the rest.

Prediction: Henry fleming 5.67%

Nomination:
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) X3
Elma (Xenoblade) X2

 

[Troykv]

Concept: NPC Promotions

Chance: 25%

Well ... I could not be sure, there are some characters that obviously would be easier to remove from its original position than others (such as background characters or as shown above, the trophies), but beyond that it can not say... it is possible but not likely see it.

Want: 50%

If this ends up being true ... It depends on matching characters if I like it or not; and of course, as are their movements.

Predictions:

Henry Fleming: 25%

Nominations:

Micaiah x2
Tiki x2
Kos-mos x1

 

[Chalo5000]

Promoted NPC 35%

As I said before, we don't really know how Sakurai's mind works so it's impossible to predict this stuff
I can see them making NPCs playables, but I also think that they wouldn't bother in changing something like that

Want 99%

Waluigi, Midna, Lyn, Prince of Sablé
That would be beautiful
It would have been a 100% but, if the NPCs are playables, the Ridley fans would get their hopes up
I mean Sakurai already stated specificaly on why Ridley is too big can't be playable
Well, the Ridley fans already have their hopes up with the Ridley stage hazard being a clone of the original Ridley so right now I'm just being paranoic

Henry Fleming 10%
Who is this guy?

Moonstruck Blossom x 2
Tetra x 8

 

[Sid-cada]

Promoted NPC

Chance - 17.75% - Possible, but not all that likely. While it is possible for one to be promoted, there are several problems in the way:

1 - Being an NPC typically causes a drop in support due to lack of faith.

2 - Doing so would cause work about a character to be rendered undone.

3 - It's possible that model in-game are not good enough for playable status, so they have to make a new model out of scratch, not saving time.

All said and done, if there is enough public outcry for a character, it might be possible, but otherwise I don't see it happening.

Want - 50% - Mostly comes down to the character, I guess. Some I want, other bleh.


Henry Fleming - 22.96% - Closer to Wonder Red did, but possibly worse due to being released after the game came out.


Nominations
New Guidance Conversations X3
Anna (FE) X2

 

[Rockaphin]

Promoted NPC's:

Chance: 5%

Want: 25%

Not many of the choices really interest me. The only two that I can think of at this moment that I'd love to see promoted are Snivy and Lyn.

Nominations:
Paper Mario x2
*Concept Full Ken Alt x3

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Promoted NPC 20%

I think assist trophys/stages hazards/pokeball pokemon are stuck with they're roles (except background characters)

Theres only 2 i can see. (Point out more if a missed some)

Wolf on corneria stage no explamation need check the wolf votes and requests for wolf hes pretty much shoe in likey.

Viridi is the only other main character in kid icarus upspring not playable, bu chances are slim.

And why ridley is not up there......dont even think about asking it will start a flame war here.


Want 100%

So many more chaactrs that could have made smash 4 the best roster ever.


Nominations

Roy (fire emblem) 4x

Viridi 1x

 

[SvartWolf]

Chances: N.A.
Dunno if as a concept this can be debatable, since it's mostly should be understood as case by case, I mean, i don't think that if by some sort of unkown miracle ashley tops the ballot, and sakurai can think of an interesting moveset i don't see them saying "Oh, but she is already in, so i guess that bad luck, i should put the second winner instead, so shrek joins smash"

The biggest problem this guy face is that they already were rejected once due to either, not being popular enough, not having enough priority (takamaru case i guess) or having technical problems that sakurai or his team couldn't solve yet (Ridley's case, should he be big and fast? or should he be big and slow and stop feeling like Ridley).

Of this 3 problems, the priority one should be somewhat "solved" depending on how much characters they want to put in (are we getting more characters after the 6 first? will be nintendo still doing Smash DLC in 2017?), the technical problems may or may not get resolved (If Sakurai or team still doesn't know how to implement Ridley he won't get in I guess, not because he is a "boss", Ice climbers probably face a similar problem) and if people already abandoned their "popular" assist trophies they won't have a chance because they simply aren't popular enough.

The NPCs that more chance of being in IMO are probably Ridley and Takamaru (and maaaaybe Midna) but thats is only if Takamaru or Midna get popular enough (or a new important game having them gets released) and if they manage to solve the Ridley Dilemma in a way that is satisfying to Sakurai. The others I don't see too good chances, mostly because they are only supported by their most hardcore fans. I just think that It can't be DLC BECAUSE they are already in the game is an arbitrary rule that I hope is just an invention of the fans.

WANT: Depends..
Ridley: 100% yeah, I do want Ridley, not beacause Metroid Needs another rep, or because we need more dragons in the roster, but because I just like the character and would love to use it, sue me.
Lyn: 70% Yeah, I want her, but she is pretty much imposible, specially if roy comes in. plus i think i would prefer them to overhaul Lucina, but heh, still there is project M :D.
Ashley: 40% could be interesting, but I think i would prefer mona though...
Takamaru: 35% never played the game(s?), but looks like he can be fun addition to the roster.
Midna: 25% Dunno, she also could be interesting
Everyone else that isn't an extremely boring choice: 15% It's great when your favorite character gets in even against the odds so I would be somewhat happy if some fanbase manages to get their character.

 

[Fire_Voyager]

NPCs
Chances: 10%
Want: 30%
I give up on some characters. so I'll wait for 5mash... Sakurai and his team aren't showing any work on something new, just old characters. maybe they will surprise us, but I think that the only new character will be the winner of the ballot... and it could be Roy or Wolf... pfff...

Flemming
Predictions: 20%

Noms
Bub/Bob x5

 

[Kalimdori]

There's numerous, multiple problems stacking against them. Its not just one small issue.


First off, there's no evidence this can happen via DLC, and until that happens everyone will naturally be skeptical. They picked these characters as Assist Trophies or Pokeballs or stage hazards FOR A REASON. Yes, this can be rectified 5-6 years later, but this is NOT 5-6 years later, this is a year later. There's also numerous evidence in game that they took into account the possibility of DLC before the game was released.


Was DLC outright PLANNED to happen before release? There's possible evidence that it was, most notably the legitimate "Smash 6" job hiring that opened up. It wasn't a fake, it was real, it truly existed, and they obviously planned on this. Whatever it is, they planned it out in advance. Sakurai has also stated there's a smaller team working on DLC. These are probably interns they hired for release.


Ok, with that out of the way... they clearly had it in mind to choose characters as NPC roles prior to the game was even released. Odds are, they picked popular characters they didn't really plan on making playable.


Now, COULD that change if they have a character who is highly rated? Yes, in fact, I doubt they'd ignore a character who became extremely popular in a poll. But first off, there really aren't many notable characters who could fit this anyway. The only one who could likely even come close to topping the polls is Ridley (who is so blatantly out that even if he does top the poll there's probably no chance of him happening regardless).

Second of all, there's also the fact that because many of these characters are already NPC's, it doesn't really look like they'd be valid candidates as DLC in the game as is. And ultimately, not many are actually talking about voting for them. Some still are, but many are skipping them, thereby making it a self-fulfilling prophecy.


The reason I thought the 80-85% ranking is ridiculous is because it doesn't take every factor into account. Thinking that its possible is one thing, but the rating just seems way too high, there's too many factors to conceivably think that this scenario has that high of a chance to happen.

Unless you count trophies as NPC's, in which case that's 100%.


There's too many factors for this to simply, logically, be that high of a ranking. Admittedly, I shouldn't have ruled out 60%; that's not nearly so bad.

I'll admit, I forgot to take into account that the view that these characters won't be valid candidates would lower support for them on the ballot. I'll bump my score down a bit

 

[BluePikmin11]

NPC Character Chance:
Abstain
I guess there are NPC Sakurai could revert to playable, but there are very few notable viable ones like Isabelle, Tom Nook, Midna, Ghirahim, Waluigi, and Skull Kid who could legitimately take the spot. I don't see other ATs making it as playable. Can't really judge the chance of this, very hard to determine.

NPC Character Want:
80%
If it means we can get Tom Nook, I'm all for it. Sadly I don't see much going for Sable, he's getting less support with the deconfirmed mentality most Smash fans have.

Henry Fleming Prediction:
13.42% This probably going to end up with a nasty rating.

Nominations:
x5 Young Link

 

[Nimbostratus]

Promoted NPCs
Chance- 35%
Want- 100%
Nothing new to say, really. This day has already seen some great posts!

Henry Fleming Predictions- 11%
I admittedly had to look this guy up…

Nominations:
Ridley x2
Roy x2
Crono x1

 

[MagnesD3]

Actuality: 0%
Want: Ridley

 

[BKupa666]

NPC Promotions:

Chance - 5%
It comes down to that no NPC is going to get even remotely enough votes to the point where it would make sense to backtrack on their role in the game to add them as a character.

Even Ridley seems to be losing steam, sadly, due to judgmental fans forcing his supporters into a no-win situation: either keep talking about the character and get s*** because said fans personally don't care about the character/are content in giving up, or stay silent and get written off as not popular anymore.

Heck, for all we know, characters have been removed from their former NPC roles (like Isaac) because they are receiving consideration, unlike the likes of Waluigi or Tingle.

Basically, the odds of this are higher for a potential NX port, but not for actual DLC.

Want - 100%
Because Ridley and to a lesser extent Waluigi would be back in the running again.

Henry Flemming Prediction - 14.5%

Nominate Chorus Kids/Men x5

 

[Bill Nye]

NPC Promotions
Chance: 30%
I don't think votes for NPC's are "wasted" by any means. I don't get why people immediately assumed NPCs can't be DLC. Assist trophies could just be removed when the character is being used, and Ridley is canonically and visually different from the Super Metroid Ridley a majority of his fans want (whether or not Sakurai actually KNOWS this is a different issue). I also don't see a problem with a playable Ghirahim summoning himself with an assist trophy. Sure, it doesn't make sense, but neither does an 8-Sheik deathmatch. Fighting games already have the "problem" of two of the same character being on the screen at once. Two of the same character fighting each other is okay, but when one of the characters isn't playable it becomes a problem?

Regardless of whether or not it is possible, most of the NPC's have limited support due to their deconfirmations. I think they are all great choices for Smash, but the only one with much of a shot in the ballot is Ridley, and that's another can of worms.

Want: 100%
Mainly for Ridley, but I would be happy with any of the Zelda assist trophies, Dillon, and Saki.

Nominations: Agnes Oblige x 2
Ridley x 3

 

[SmashChu]

Wait a minute...how is that any different from everyone who rated Wolf high and gave "he needs to come back" as a reason?

Neither argument works, and more importantly, neither of them is the major argument for their respective characters' inclusion. Notice how everyone who's given Sceptile the highest chance ratings have appealed to uniqueness, just like so many of Wolf's high ratings suggested he was probably one of the last few left off the initial roster and how he has as much of an argument as Lucas?

Because Sceptile doesn't come up because people legitimately liked the character (unlike Wolf). He came up because "Oh, as have a Fire and Water starter Pokemon. Well, we need a grass one too. And we need more Pokemon from the third gen." Sceptile is suppose to fill a quota. This happens all the time, and I've yet to see one of these characters make it into the roster.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

(Going back on what I said, concepts get no pun)
Chance: .05%
Those characters already have defined roles as ATs, bosses, etc. I really doubt Sakurai is going promote them, this game at least.

Want: 51%
It would really depend on which characters get promoted. If it's someone like Shadow, Ghiraham, or Shy Guy, then heck yeah. If it's someone like Nintendog or Ridley, then heck no.

FLEMING!!! **** YEAH. PREDICTION! **** YEAH: 12.75%

Nominations:
9-Volt x5

 

[Seanp12]

If you were one of the developers, wouldn't you hesitate to do all the work necessary to make an NPC playable when there were so many other compelling options that wouldn't require that? The current summons and stage elements don't even have much of a moveset, just a few animations and usually just a couple attacks (with the exception of Ridley again), so the idea that it'd save them time isn't even true!

"So many compelling options"? Just look at the want/chance scores most of the characters that we've rated have had so far. Outside of K. Rool, Isaac, and Wolf, most are barely rated more than fifty percent on either want or chance. A big reason for that is because many people's first choices are already NPCs. Just look at how many 100% want ratings this concept has gotten! And the fact that they have "just a few animations and usually just a couple attacks" still means that they already are just a little bit easier to add than a ground-up character. Something is still more than nothing.

first we know ridley is out. Its been said by sakurai why. clone ridley is all ridleys for some ridiculous reason.

Well, yes, but that's not the reason he gave. Even so, why does it matter which Ridley it is if he already thought that having Wind Waker Toon Link and his Spirit Tracks descendant on the same stage was a problem?

 

[Kalimdori]

The current summons and stage elements don't even have much of a moveset, just a few animations and usually just a couple attacks (with the exception of Ridley again), so the idea that it'd save them time isn't even true!

You dunno that much about game design, do you?

Creating a high quality 3D model takes time. Rigging and texturing that high quality model takes even more time. ANY sort of high quality animation for any character, be it an attack, walking, or a simple idle animation, takes a ton time.

It would still take a while to make them into characters, but it would definitely skip several steps that other characters would have to take.