Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[LIQUID12A]

50 days since the last Isaac rating.

Let's begin.

Chance: 50%--->40%

I'll be honest, the reveal of the KKR costume means everyone is in the deadpool now. A supposed ballot juggernaut got reduced to Mii, and I believe that anyone could be next. Will the suggestion box save the blonde swordsman? We don't know. But I'm not betting on it considering that GS is, for the moment, dead and there's that priority Sakurai talks about.

Want: 40%

This remains unchanged for me.

Abstaining on All Star rounds.

Predictions:

Zeroes for both Tyrantrum and Mike.

Nominate: Rerate Inklings x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Isaac

Chance - 33.5% - Still one of the most likely in my eyes, but not quite as likely as before. Yeah, it's getting hard to say who gets in, and I may have overrated him still last time.

Want - 75% - Still has some great potential, though.


All Star Rounds

Chance - 20% - Eh... I don't think so. Maybe if we really do get tons of DLC characters, but I don't think they will change it around.

Want - 50% - Eh. Just eh.


Predictions

Tyrantrum - 0.13% - Sure, go ignore Fossil Fighters. It's not like it cant' do anything like this...

Mike - 0.24% - Well, it's another third party...


Nominations

Henry Fleming X5

 

[Mario123311]

Issac:
Chance: 75% (I'm afraid)
Want: 0%

Generic Swordsman, Kthxbye. After all the Fire Emblem clones we have, I'd rather have more unique fighters. I would rather not have another generic RPG character, honestly though. (Flame Shield)

More All-Star Rounds
Chance: 90% ((Didn't Ryu get added to Allstar or so if downloaded?))
Want: Abstain
I'm okay with it personally, I guess.
*Once again, Nominate Giana x5*

 

[XeVioN]

Issac:
Chance: 60%
He's wanted here and in japan too, he's also one of the most wanted characters for smash bros, he was already an assit trophy.
Want: 99%
Golden sun is a frigging classic I don't know why isen't he in smash yet.

More all star rounds
abstain.

Nominate
Nipples the enchilada x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

For Isaac I'll just copy-paste what I said in my last rating since I feel that nothing has changed:

Isaac chances: 19.45%

I wasn't confident about Isaac's chances when we first rated him, and I'm still not confident about his chances today. The series for sure has a strong following especially considering both the original Golden Sun and Lost Age broke the 1 million sales mark, but I'm not sure whether the series has an influence comparable to most series represented in Smash, even the more "niche" ones like Pikmin, Mother or Xenoblade, and I don't have much faith in Nintendo considering it worthy of being one of their flagship series. The fact the series didn't get playable representation in Brawl when it was the closest to its peak at the release of a new Smash game and instead got an unlockable Assist Trophy is telling a lot imo.

The Smash Ballot definitely helps him though, considering his popularity as a Smash DLC pick is considerably above average, especially in Europe from what I've seen, though Japan seems to care a little less about him than the rest of the world from what I've understood (they still care about him, at least much more than Little Mac prior to his reveal, just not exactly as much as the rest of the world). The Virtual Console releases on Wii U also help him to get more exposure, so I suppose it's something.

Overall I don't expect Isaac, though I wouldn't be too surprised to be proven wrong. For my standards a chances score close to 20% is good for someone I wouldn't bet on.

Isaac want: 72%

I don't really expect Isaac, but that wouldn't mean I wouldn't want him. I remember I bandwagoned him prior to the ESRB leak because of "GBA rep" and "MUH MOVESET POTENTIAL", and I even bought the first Golden Sun on the GBA (didn't have a Wii U yet, so no GS virtual console for me at the time), but ever since I've changed my roster philosophy and I came to think that "GBA rep" is not really a good primary reason and I've accepted that just because a character has an overly massive arsenal filled with a huge number of different attacks that can easily be ported from the source material doesn't mean they need to be in Smash.

Did those philosophy changes completely killed my want for Isaac? Actually, no, I think Golden Sun is popular enough to warrant a playable character in Smash and it'd be sad to see a big fanbase of a two million seller series ignored in Smash. His moveset possibilities still manage to catch my interest, and overall I still want him to a certain degree. I would be happy to see him making it in, especially with a cool Venus Lighthouse stage with a big central platform, two elevators at each side which can act as additional platforms when they appear, and some occasional gravity changes.

-----

Additional all-star rounds chances: 22.5%
This mostly depends on how many DLC characters we will get and from which era they are, but I'd say those additional round data were most likely scrapped contents done before they fully knew how to handle the mode.

Additional all-star rounds want: 50%
I'm indifferent.

-----

Mike prediction: 0%
I thought it was a stretch, but I just learned that it also was third-party. He'd doomed.

Random Pokémon of the day prediction: 0%

Nominating:
Balance change: universal hitstun increase x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Isaac
Chance: 50% (Same as Bandana Dee, 50/50)
Want: 55% (Wouldn't mind him)

Additional All-Star rounds
Chance: 20%
Want: Abstain

Tyrantrum: 0%
Mike: 0%

Gooey 5x (I'm really running out of characters/concepts to nominate)

 

[Zerp]

Isaac:
Chances: 30%
This guy in a nutshell is a inverted Bandana Dee, is super popular over in the West, still behind K. Rool, but has only decent (Top 10-20) support in Japan. I do feel his counterpart, Bandana Dee is slightly more likely than him due to one reason, and that would be that his series is basically dead while Kirby is still going strong. Yes, it's sad but it's also the truth, Golden Sun is at a lower priority than it was in Brawl, because it's dead now.

Want: 20%
Slight sympathy for his fanbase, and the character looks like it'd be a meaningful addition, but I'm going to have to say I don't really want it since slots are so low now (Predicting 4 left) that Isaac's inclusion might as well be a deathblow to my wanted character's chances. Sorry if that sounds asinine (Probably because it kind of is), but I haven't gotten any characters I want this game, and all my most wanted before the game were either screwed over or ignored, while my best friend gets 4 of his top 5 in game, so I'm a wee bit jealous and would like some sort of compensation, however small. Don't get me wrong though, I'd still be glad if he makes it, I'm just very paranoid about him "Stealing" muh slot. Don't really get why people mock that view, when it's a perfectly valid concern, because you know, games do have development time limits, so there really is only a certain amount of things Sakurai can get done.

Would gladly welcome Isaac next game though.

Additional All star rounds: Abstain

predictions: Tyrantrum: 0.8% It's probably going to be a ton of zeroes, but look at the bright side, at least Jirachi and Absol aren't alone anymore in the seemingly random Pokemon but not really random department :D.
Mike: 0%
Nominations: Clefairy x 5

 

[NintenRob]

Isaac
Chance 40%
Want 20%

Extra All-Star Rounds
Chance 50%
Want ?%

Tyrantrum 0%
Mike 0%

Nominate BF/FD retro skins x5

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac:
Chance:40%
Yeah, i also think Isaac is looking less and less likely as time passes by.

Want:100%
Nothing has changed for my want score.
----------------------------------
Abstaining on the other stuff.
----------------------------------
Noms:
Zero (from Megaman) X5

 

[Laniv]

Isaac:

Chance: 50%


Want: Abstain


Additional All-Star Rounds:

Chance: 4%

Want: 50%


Predictions for Tyrantrum: 1% Chance, 0.6% Want
Predictions for Mike: 0.4% Chance, 0.22% Want

Nominate: Nester x 5

 

[The Light Music Club]

Isaac
Chance: 3%
Want: 30%

Abstain from All Star

Nominations:
Idolm@ster Representation x 5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Isaac:

Chance:18%
Want:50%

Additional All-Star Rounds:

Chance: 26%
Want:55%

Predictions:

Tyrantrum:0.45%
Mike:0.55%

Nominate Rerate: 7+ DLC characters x5.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Isaac
Chance: 10%
Copy and paste:

Isaac
Chance: 15%
The positives with Isaac are that he comes from a game with a cult status, his demand, and his uniqueness. The latter two things are really important. Since Isaac is a pretty popular choice, he will pretty well in the ballot. His uniqueness with his psyenergy makes him stand out as a fighter, another thing that helps in his case.

However, there are also three things going against him, namely being a newcomer, having little content in Smash, and perhaps even Dawn Dawn. Newcomers will definitely take a lot of time to create as their moveset needs to be created from scratch. Having little content in Smash is also very concerning... perhaps Sakurai thought that Golden Sun didn't deserve a lot of content in Smash? Things look bleak if a pretty major franchise didn't get too much content. Lastly, maybe Dark Dawn's failure was the cause of Golden Sun getting little content; maybe Nintendo and Sakurai think that the franchise isn't worth too much investing on (I should mention Camelot has stated that creating a Golden Sun game takes a lot of work and it's troubling for their financials apparently).

Although he his a unique sword fighter in that he can use magic, I think Robin potential sapped that away from him.

I lowered it because of the King K. Rool costume. He was a big contender for the ballot and it seems as though Sakurai thinks that the most that he deserves is a costume. Perhaps he might think the same for Isaac, as two are in a similar predicament; both are popular characters and both haven't been in a new game for years, losing some relevancy to them.
I am not saying that this fate will happen to Isaac, but it could.

Want: 50%
Indifference.

Additional All-Star Rounds
Chance: 50%
If there are a lot of DLC characters, then maybe.
Want: 0%
I hate All-Star Mode. It gets tiring and repetitive after a while.

Tyrantrum Prediction: .42%
I dunno.
Mike Prediction: .74%
*shrugs*

Nominations: Lyn 5x

 

[POKEMANSPIKA]

Sees people thinking all Isaac can do is swing a sword.

I see no one bothers too do any research about any character. btw Isaac can ****ing manipulate the earth. TOTALLY GENERIC!

 

[Skyblade12]

Isaac:

Chance: 66%
This has dropped since my last rating due to some worries of how the ballot may be treated/used by Nintendo going forward. While I don't think the K. Rool situation is a disconfirm by any means, there are a couple other minor issues that have cropped up that, bundled together, hurt his chances.

Want: 100%
No change.

 

[Accursed]

Isaac

Chance: 55

Want: 100

 

[dangeraaron10]

Isaac:

Chance: 35%
Yes, Isaac is quite popular in the West, but middling popularity in Japan. His AT was removed yet there was nothing to compensate. In fact I think the only thing from Golden Sun is the final boss music from Brawl being on the Norfair stage? This means Golden Sun would have less content in Smash than Wonderful 101 (this game at least has trophies, or one trophy)...which is pretty harsh. A game series that sold millions having less content than one that is widely known as a total bomb. It's clear Sakurai doesn't think too highly of Golden Sun, but the Smash Ballot could very well change his mind. I still think Isaac will be one of the frontrunners but seeing what happened to K. Rool and the Mii Costume (even if it's not a deconfirmation outright), the same thing could potentially happen to Isaac.

Want: REVISED: 50%
Having never played Golden Sun, and after doing some research into the character and series, I eventually warmed up to the character when visiting his thread. I'm starting to like the idea of adding an earth magic user to Smash, to balance out the fire, water, and lightning already in use.

Additional All-Star Rounds:

Chance: Abstain
That depends entirely on how many DLC characters we get, which I have no clue how many we will have. Part of me thinks the logical number would be small, due to time constraints. Another part of me thinks that Sakurai and Co. could NOT have been just sitting on their hands since releasing Tourny and the Stages. They have to have been doing something up until the Ballot if they weren't already working on top Ballot picks.

Want: 100%
Because that means we will receive lots of DLC characters to warrant it. You know what they say, they more the merrier!

 

[FalKoopa]

Isaac:
Chance: 60%
Want: 100%

Unlike the other big DLC contender, nothing has really changed about Isaac. So I'm sticking to my previous rating.

 

[Zerp]

Sees people thinking all Isaac can do is swing a sword.

I see no one bothers too do any research about any character. btw Isaac can ****ing manipulate the earth. TOTALLY GENERIC!

I guess it does help my point that Isaac and Bandana Dee are two of a kind though, since nobody ever does research on either of them, and always call them generic solely based on their appearances . Seriously though, I'll never understand the claim that Isaac is generic, when the guy can use Djinn/Djinni, psynergy, can heal himself, and create earthquakes, all of which are totally generic and commonplace in Smash Bros.
(And yes that's sarcasm, he isn't generic at all)

 

[Flavius]

Isaac

Chance: 65%
Want: 100%

I love Isaac and so do a lot of other people. He has a lot of potential to be a character like no other and he's been requested since Brawl. The only thing holding him back is that he's not as popular in Japan which does hurt him a little bit. However, Little Mac wasn't that popular either if I remember.

Additional All-Star Rounds

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

The only thing I could say for this is... maybe?

 

[The Light Music Club]

Sees people thinking all Isaac can do is swing a sword.

I see no one bothers too do any research about any character. btw Isaac can ****ing manipulate the earth. TOTALLY GENERIC!

It's not that he is generic, it's that he was dead enough to be cut as an AT, and only get musical representation. He would have been preballot, had he been cut from AT to be playable, but he wasn't. He's not that popular in Japan either, which to me holds lots of importance, since we've seen so much JPN only stuff, but Little Mac is the only really western character we have.

 

[POKEMANSPIKA]

It's not that he is generic, it's that he was dead enough to be cut as an AT, and only get musical representation. He would have been preballot, had he been cut from AT to be playable, but he wasn't. He's not that popular in Japan either, which to me holds lots of importance, since we've seen so much JPN only stuff, but Little Mac is the only really western character we have.

This doesn't have to do with my post...
Most people who don't like Isaac don't think he can do much because he has a sword. Look at the posts above. That's all I was talking about. I wasn't talking about his chance at being playable. (still better than any AT imo #OnedayTingle #Reach4theStarsStarfy #Goroh4DLC #Ridleyaint2big).

 

[The Light Music Club]

This doesn't have to do with my post...
Most people who don't like Isaac don't think he can do much because he has a sword. Look at the posts above. That's all I was talking about. I wasn't talking about his chance at being playable. (still better than any AT imo #OnedayTingle #Reach4theStarsStarfy #Goroh4DLC #Ridleyaint2big).

Oh I see, my apologies. It was to my understanding that you were speaking of all low scores in general.

 

[Troykv]

Isaac:

Chance: Abstain

Many possibilities affects his chance.

Want: 50%

I'm okay with him

Extra Stages in All Stars.

Chance: Abstain

Want: 80%

Predictions

Tytranum: 0.34%

Mike: 0.54%

Nominations:

Idolm@ster Representation x1
Shadow the Hedgedog x2
Fire Emblem Stage DLC x1
Rerate!Micaiah x1

(Saving 5 extra-nominations).

 

[_Sheik]

Isaac

Chance - 90% - He's got both popularity (as in fan demand) and likeliness. Great moveset potential, too - too good of an opportunity for Sakurai to pass.

Want - 100% - Been supporting him since the pre-Brawl days.

All Star Rounds

Chance - Abstain

Want - 0% - I'd rather not have them.

Predictions

Tyrantrum - 0%

Mike - 0% - Who?

Nominations:

Henry Fleming x4
Fire Emblem stage DLC x1

 

[Scamper52596]

Isaac
Chance: 15%
I've never been all that confident in Isaac's chances, and it seems as if the possible blow to K. Rool has finally gotten people to realize that a character isn't safe behind popularity and moveset potential alone. There are still other factors that go into choosing a DLC character even with the Smash Ballot in the mix. I personally believe that Isaac's main issue is his recognizable factor outside of Smashboards and other Internet forums not being so great due to only having a few handheld games. Golden Sun hasn't even had a 3DS release. Sakurai might only see Golden Sun as a low priority franchise because of that, and he already stated how representation works for franchises he considers low priority. I'll give the former Assist Trophy a score of 15%, which is only a 0.5% drop from my original rating.
Without a future installment in the Golden Sun franchise, I just don't feel that Isaac has what it takes...

Want: 30%
My want rating keeps dropping every time we rate him. The truth is I just don't really care for this character. I would be happy to see him get in for his fans (literally the only reason for the 30%), but Isaac isn't a character I'm personally attached to. And it's not because I don't think he has moveset potential; I've acknowledged that he does in my past ratings.


Additional All-Star Rounds
Chance: 18.2%
It's possible, but I doubt the developers going to add more rounds to this mode when there are already a few Challenge Board pieces that require you to get through the mode in a certain time limit with different characters. Adding more rounds would make the challenges way more difficult. Not to mention there are probably only 2-4 more characters we'll end up getting, which to me isn't enough to add another round to All-Star Mode. I'll give this All-Star concept a rating of 18.2%.
Seems like an arbitrary thing to do...

Want: 5%
I think the mode is fine as is.

 

[Chandeelure]

Isaac

Chance - 90% - He's got both popularity (as in fan demand) and likeliness. Great moveset potential, too - too good of an opportunity for Sakurai to pass.

You can say that about literally all the characters of the Top 10.
Popularity and moveset potential are not the only factors for the inclusion of a character.
The roster would be very different if those were the only factors.

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Erureido wins for Tom Nook and @~Krystal~ wins for Shovel Knight.

 

[dangeraaron10]

You can say that about literally all the characters of the Top 10.
Popularity and moveset potential are not the only factors for the inclusion of a character.
The roster would be very different it those were the only factors.

I'd love to see that roster.

No really. I'm generally curious to see what Smash would look like, between all four games, if popularity and moveset potential would be the only deciding factors.

Probably not TOO different from what we have now, though Sakurai probably wouldn't have taken risks on characters like Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt, Game n' Watch, or Wii Fit Trainer.

 

[_Sheik]

You can say that about literally all the characters of the Top 10.
Popularity and moveset potential are not the only factors for the inclusion of a character.
The roster would be very different if those were the only factors.

I am asked to RATE his chances, so I AM rating his chances. Since he's part of that very top 10 you mention, it is only normal that I use said factors to describe his situation. kthxbye?

 

[Chandeelure]

I am asked to RATE his chances, so I AM rating his chances. Since he's part of that very top 10 you mention, it is only normal that I use said factors to describe his situation. kthxbye?

The problem is that said factors are not the only factors and that you ignored the negative things only because you want the character, but yeah, it's OK, biased or not, it's your opinion.
It's funny how everybody here can post a totally biased score and say "it's my opinion! X character is a shoo-in! You can't change my opinion!" as an excuse.

 

[JohnnySparkxs]

Isaac

Chance - 60%
I'm not a big fan of this whole numerical system, but I guess 60 fits the likely part. As for my rating, Isaac's probably the in the top 3/4 characters for DLC (the others being Wolf, K. Rool and Inklings), as well as one of the most voted. He has a huge moveset potencial (psynergy, djinn, summons) and his inclusion would be the boost that the franchise probably needs to get the 4th game. As for the whole priority argument, I'm pretty sure Sakurai also said the DLC objective is to be fanservice and Isaac would probably fit in the whole fanservice thing (like I said, he's one of the most voted characters). As for the casual fanbase argument, most of them probably have dropped the game and don't know about the ballot and even if they knew, their votes would probably be pretty dispersed (after all, there are 721 Pokémon to choose from).

Want - 100%
Golden Sun is my favorite franchise of all time and Isaac and Matthew are my favorite videogame characters from all time. Been supporting him since I started playing Smash and I'm still surprised he hasn't been made a playable yet.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Isaac. Again...

So I'll give this one a coin toss. May be a bit overreaching, but he seems to have a lot going for him, at least more so than most other characters. For one, he's a Nintendo character, so they don't need to deal with trying to get rights or anything like that. Second, he was in Brawl, and then mysteriously disappeared thereafter. He seems like a great candidate with a strong fanbase.
Notoriety may be a factor against him. He's only had 3 games, with a huge gap between the last two (then again...). The latest game wasn't well received - reviews were OK, but it wasn't a huge smash hit. Smash could go a long way to bring the franchise back into the light. And if I'm not mistaken, he isn't really a one-region-wonder either.

I don't really have any loyalty to the Golden Sun series, but I am not at all in the club of "Wah, too many swordzmenz!!!11 " Frankly, the one who brings a weapon to a fighting game is the one who's prepared. I'd not have a problem with it.
And plus, his adult look from the latest game is awesome, and I'd much rather have older Isaac than younger.

I don't like rerating things which really haven't had any changes. Still nothing 's really changed, but I'm getting more selective since slots seem really limited. 50/30
​

Additional Rounds in All-Star
Chance: 50%, Want: 50%

I love all-star mode. As fun as it was in Melee where we played randomly 4 1v1s, 4 1v2s, and 4 1v3s, the reverse chronology is nice too. I could guess that eventually some extentions would need to be made - in vanilla, all rounds had 7 characters save the last with 6. Mewtwo's addition added a single fighter to round 3. With the next update, we've now got an extra in round 5 and TWO in round 2.
I don't know if they'd move the current sorting around, but if we get too many more 2001-2006 characters, that's going to get really tough compared to other rounds.
​

Predictions: 0.2%

Nom: 7+ DLC x5

​

 

[Apollyon]

Isaac.

Chance -> 100%.

Want -> 100%.

Everything else -> 0%
If you want to know the reason why my want is 100%, stop by the Isaac thread, you'll notice that he's not just another "anime swordsman." That is all.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Chance -> 100%.

Spoiler

Let's not make this go horribly ok?

 

[_Sheik]

The problem is that said factors are not the only factors and that you ignored the negative things only because you want the character, but yeah, it's OK, biased or not, it's your opinion.
It's funny how everybody here can post a totally biased score and say "it's my opinion! X character is a shoo-in! You can't change my opinion!" as an excuse.

No. Just no. I would have given K.Rool the exact same treatment even though I don't like him. Plus I don't see what negative parts there are about Isaac.

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Isaac
Chance: 64%
Want: 100%

Additional all star rounds
Chance: 10%
Abstain on want

Tyrantum Prediction: 1.12%
Mike Prediction: .01%

Nominations:
Rerate Jibanyan x3
Endou Mamoru x2

 

[LIQUID12A]

Isaac.

Chance -> 100%.

Here's some fun trivia for you, the last guy who did this got slammed on by the rest of the thread.

I would suggest changing it to something that doesn't immediately scream trouble, especially since Isaac is still not confirmed, which a 100% chance effectively says.

 

[Erureido]

Abstaining from Isaac from Golden Sun.

Going to make this quick since I have little time today.

Additional All-Star Rounds

Chance: 25%

I am convinced that we'll be seeing more than 2 DLC characters, and if it does happen, I can see why there would be more rounds added. It would be too much to fight around 10 fighters at once. The only issue is that as of now, DLC fighters are simply added to an already existing round even if it may be too much (most notable example being the 2001-2007 era characters where they have the most fighters you need to battle at once thanks to Roy and Lucas's inclusions.

Want: 50%

I wouldn't mind seeing this concept included either way.

Predictions:

Tyrantrum (Pokemon): 0.27%
Mike (Drawn to Life): 0.14%

Nominations:

@ Erureido wins for Tom Nook and @~Krystal~ wins for Shovel Knight.

Aw yeah!

Jin Kazama (Tekken): x10

 

[LasermasterA]

Issac:
Chance: 75% (I'm afraid)
Want: 0%

Generic Swordsman, Kthxbye. After all the Fire Emblem clones we have, I'd rather have more unique fighters. I would rather not have another generic RPG character, honestly though. (Flame Shield)

Back to Business:
Haven't visited this thread for quite a while and we are re-rating Isaac, again, for the 3rd time -_-

Want: 100%
His awesome earth manipulating powers, god summoning Djinns, and earth rending weapon unleashes make him far too interesting to not have. Plus I absolutely love Golden Sun and have been rooting for him since forever so this rating is never going to drop down.

Chance: 50%
Despite the recent Mii costume fiasco with K. Rool, I still believe the Ballot will give Isaac a fair chance, putting it at 50%. He's pretty popular, has pretty decent western support and Japanese support, despite being small, still exists. The franchise still has a future despite what a lot think, and although he wasn't AT (which many people have called bad news) didn't nuke him from getting a playable chance as DLC.

Although I (and tons of GS fans) have already said this all before, I will repeat it. Isaac can still rock the party in Smash.

Nominations:
Not re-rating characters (for a 3rd time and above) whose positions haven't changed x9001 x5