Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[colder_than_ice]

Can I vote and nominate again even though I was here but an hour ago, colder_than_ice?

Yes you can, we just started a new day.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Tom Nook:

Chance:0%
Want:5%

He's already part of Villager's final smash so that really hurts his chances.

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 51%
Want: 75%

Normally I would put my score much lower. However because of a recent rumour that has some credibility and some credible people backing it up a little Shovel Knight has a 50/50 chance getting in IMO.

Predictions:

Issac: 37.3%

Additional All Star Battle Rounds: 29.65%

Nominate :

Concept: Only 6 DLC characters in total x10.

 

[LIQUID12A]

Double zeroes on Tom Nook, he's a Final Smash component that I don't care for. Would rather have Isabelle.

Shovel Knight

Chance: 25%
Want: 65%

This one's odd. We have first supposed insider information from user @Tama from Unseen64 that Shovel Knight would get into Smash, something we haven't seen take place yet. Then there was the whole Amiibo debacle, which many, myself included, believed fake for a while until an actual Amiibo came to be shown, and it had no association with Smash as many thought. Now that the hype catastrophe from PAX is over, the whole thing is left ambiguous. The supposed insider info claims Shovel Knight would be shown in a month or two's time. It's dubious for sure, but with higher ups such as SourceGaming's PushDustin believing it, there's a chance. I don't think it's high myself, but it exists.

Want-wise, SK falls into a gray area for me. Third party-wise, Snake first. On the other hand, I love Shovel Knight and his game, so I would welcome his presence in Smash even though a certain part of me would question why an indie character was added over more recognizable third parties. It would also be ironic that I would enjoy SK, an indie, despite dissing Shantae, another indie, to hell and back.

Predictions:

Isaac(ho boy): 45%
More All Star Rounds: 30%

No nominations today.

 

[Deleted member]

Tom Nook

Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

Shovel Knight

Chance: 1%

Yes, he has an Amiibo. Yes, I've read the rumors. Yes, he is demanded. However, that Amiibo isn't part of the Smash Bros. line and his game still isn't out in Japan yet, so I have my doubts. (Strangely, he will make a cameo in Bloodstained, a Japanese game.)

I also have difficulty placing Shovel Knight alongside the likes of Snake, Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man, Ryu, and even certain third party characters not featured in Smash such as Belmont and Bomberman; He isn't as iconic and he doesn't have an immense legacy.

Want: 50%

I'm completely neutral.

Predictions:

Isaac - 35%

Additional All-Star Rounds - 17%

Nominations: Zael Mii Costume x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

TOM NOOK​

Chance: 1% - He's in Villager's Final Smash, so I don't think it's very likely. Like Chrom, Dunban, etc.
Want: 0% - Nah, Villager is all Animal Crossing needs to b represented in Smash.

SHOVEL KNIGHT​

Chance: 5% - Well, he has an Amiibo now, so I'll give his chances a bit of a boost, but I still don't think that it is very likely. Plus, his series is just over a year old. Too young.
Want: 0% - No. He's existed for a little over a year, and people think he's worthy of getting in with a roster of Nintendo's All-Stars? Hell, no. At the most, I'd be alright with a Mii Swordfighter outfit of him though.

PREDICTIONS​

Isaac - 35%
Additional All-Star Rounds - 5%

NOMINATIONS​

Knuckles the Echidna - x5

 

[Kenith]

Shovel Knight:
Chance: 70%.
Want: 100%.

I was told by one of the people with knowledge about this rumour that he "70% believes it" and I have faith in him, so that's what I'm going with.
Even besides that, say what you will about Shovel Knight being "undeserving" but the amiibo is pretty telling on what Nintendo thinks of the IP. If Nintendo was so forward with letting third-parties make their own amiibos...then why is Shovel Knight the only one?
Come on.

As for want...well, admittedly I started supporting him as a dark horse candidate since people were hating on him so religiously. After playing his game however, I easily see his potential and I actually do strongly want him in.
Because when I stopped being political about Smash representation, what I saw was the potential for a tale of an indie dev who appeared from out of nowhere and quickly rose to fame so fast they slammed face first into having their mascot in Super Smash Bros.
Shovel Knight has the potential to be a very fun character, and his stage and music would be very great to have as well. There are a lot of characters I would complain about being in Smash, and Shovel Knight is not one of them.

Tom Nook:
Chance: 0.5%.
Want: 0%.

Not Isabelle/10.
---
Nominations:
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@KingBro1 wins for Isa and @ NintenRob wins for Terra.

 

[Affluent Brit]

I have been away, so I have not been able to participate much, but alas, I have returned. So today we are rating the jolly Tom Nook and this Shovel Knight? Certainly odd choices.

For Tom Nook, I'm sorry to say that I do not support him. I think it would have been grand to play as him, however with Villager already playable, I do not see any need for him. In addition to that, he is already apart of Villager's Final Smash. For Tom Nook:
Chance is 0%
Want is 0%

Now, for this 'Shovel Knight' character people seem to be so fascinated about. Based off what I know of him, he does not belong to Nintendo, or is even available for purchase in Japan. Why would you want to put a character that you do not own, and that isn't available in the country your business is based out of, into a game very popular in said country? It does not make any sense. I am aware of Roy's situation back in Super Smash Brothers Melee, but the same situation could have happened with Takamaru, and you know what they did? Went back on it because they felt that nobody outside of Japan would have known who he was. If Nintendo won't be do the same situation again, what makes you believe that they will do it again, only worse? For Shovel Knight:
Chance is 0%
Want is 0%

As for predictions, I'm not too sure what to put down. Anyways..
Prediction is 45% for Isaac
Prediction is 15% for the Additional All-Star Rounds

I don't really know who to nominate, so I am just going to copy my friend @ AlphaSSB .
5 Nominations for Knuckles the Echidna

 

[Scamper52596]

Tom Nook
Chance: 0.3%
He's part of Villager's Final Smash. That might even make him worse off than being an Assist Trophy to be honest. To me that means that he's utterly not able to be substituted. I'll give the owner of Nook's Cranny a small score of 0.3%.
He doesn't strike me as a character to be made playable...

Want: 8.5%
He's cool. Just not a character I would like to see playable.


Shovel Knight
Chance: 15%
In my original rating I started out by saying that Shovel Knight had little to no ties with Nintendo. That has obviously changed since then. The thing is that I don't see how an Amiibo helps him out all that much. It's not a Smash line, meaning that they would have to go through the trouble of making a secondary Amiibo if he is indeed added in Smash. The fact that Yacht Club Games is manufacturing it themselves is also a minus. They even made it an important point that it will be compatible with future Yacht Club video games. It seems to me like they're trying to distance themselves away from the other line of Amiibo in order to make the Shovel Knight Amiibo as much of its own thing as possible, which to me doesn't bode well for his chances in Smash.

Then we go into the usual on the surface stuff. Shovel Knight is barely a year old. It hasn't been released in Japan. He's not a widely known figure outside of hardcore gamers. All stuff that you would think limits the possibility of him as DLC. The only reason I'm giving him more than 1% is due to a recent rumor that credible staff like PushDustin and Neo are backing. I myself still don't feel that Shovel Knight is all that likely, but something about Tama's source has Push and Neo actually confident in the rumor. The problem is that for whatever reason they won't share what it is about the source's information that makes them feel confident, which doesn't allow me to come to my own conclusion as to whether Shovel Knight is truly more likely than not based on that held back knowledge. That leaves me with basing my final rating on the information I do know, and in my mind everything about the idea of Shovel Knight's potential inclusion as a playable DLC character in Smash says that he has no chance. I have much respect for Push and Neo as they're confidence in this rumor is literally the only reason I'm giving Shovel Knight an above average rating, but based on everything I do know I still can't think of Shovel Knight as a likely DLC candidate. Just a character I feel might happen, but I'm not expecting it. I'll go ahead and give the 8-bit nostalgia character a score of 15%, which is an additional 13.5% from my original rating.
The wait and see game has never been stronger...

Want: 2%
I'm not at all a fan of seeing indie characters make it into Smash, and besides that I feel there are other more deserving indie characters. Although, I'm still excited to purchase the Amiibo and add it to my collection.

 

[Sid-cada]

Tom Nook

Chance - 0% - Chrom would get in before him. Being tied to a Final Smash is a big dent.

Want - 30% - Villager kinda does whatever he does.


Shovel Knight

Chance - 5.25% - The amiibo is somewhat special, but I don't believe the rumors as of now. Otherwise, he still has many of the older problems that still plague him to this day; not quite as much Japanese exposure, not a new third party, not legendary, etc.

Want - 35% - I'd rather have Shantae as my indie character. I'll reconsider when we have a bit more time on our hands.


Predictions

Isaac - 50.35% - Just some variation with small deflation due to the clock ticking.

New All-Star rounds - 7.34% - Possible, but probably too minor to consider.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Tom Nook
Chance: 3%
Sure, he's iconic and Animal Crossing is a big series that wouldn't mind a second rep. Hell, Earthbound got a second rep and it hasn't had a game for a decade.

Want: 10%
Don't really care about Animal Crossing personally. Though I like Nook well enough. Also, Tanuki!

Shovel Knight: 50%
Hoo boy. One the one hand, I would have said this was impossible but the more I think about it, the more plausible it seems. I mean, is there any bigger indie success story besides Shovel Knight? He also has all the tools to be a great fighter and maybe the devs just want to make a move set for him?
Or maybe Nintendo is getting smart and seeing that indie games are where all the talent is at and are looking to start recruiting? Maybe all the ridiculous support for SK all over the ballot and the Internet is actually sinking in? Maybe getting the rights to an indie game character is really really cheap and doesn't have all the stigma and posturing associated with trying to get say... Konami to give permission? Honestly it's that last one that has me convinced. None of their other third party characters are from this millennium, so they might very well want a new face among that list to keep it popular with the kids. And what's newer, hotter, more asked for, and most importantly cheaper than a popular indie character?
Also the amiibo is a thing I guess.

Want: 25%
For all that, I don't particular like Shovel Knight myself and would rather see Shantae but I wouldn't hate it if he made it in.

 

[Erureido]

Ah, now that's an interesting day to discuss.

Tom Nook

Chance: 0%

In the past, I used to be a bit optimistic in chances towards characters who already had predefined roles. Now, with only a month left until the Ballot closes, I highly doubt any Assist Trophies, Stage Hazards/Bosses, or Final Smashes will get upgrades to playable characters.

Despite being one of the most important characters to the Animal Crossing franchise, Tom Nook suffers from the exact same problem that Chrom and Dunban have. He already appears in a character's Final Smash. Combine that with lack of ballot support and the competition he faces with other popular Animal Crossing characters like Mr. Resetti and Isabelle (though Isabelle is the more likely competitor since she is shaping up to be the mascot of Animal Crossing) and it becomes clear that Tom's chances aren't looking that good at the moment.

Want: 1%

I guess he could have an interesting moveset built around house-building and items from his shop, but if a second Animal Crossing rep were to be considered, I would prefer seeing Isabelle fill that role at the moment.

Shovel Knight

Chance: 10%

One of the forerunners for a rep in the Indie game department (as well as coming from one of the most popular Indie games around at the moment), Shovel Knight is a popular character on the Smash Ballot scene. He offers some fairly interesting moveset potential where he could use his signature shovel in different ways. He is also a fairly new video game character, being a little over a year old since his first game's release. He also gained an Amiibo recently that is further proof of his popularity and success. There have even been recent rumors going around about Shovel Knight's possible inclusion into the Smash Bros roster a short while from now, and with some credibility to back it up, it's helping Shovel Knight's chances quite a bit.

Outside of that, the main issue he faces is that he may be a bit too new for a third party character. He might come out as an odd choice for a third party rep when compared to the likes of third parties in Smash and the most requested third party characters at the moment. He just doesn't have the sort of "legacy appeal" compared to third party reps like Sonic, Snake, Rayman, and even Professor Layton or Phoenix Wright.

It should also be worth noting that Shovel Knight hasn't exactly achieved a worldwide audience yet. He's only been released in North America and PAL, and while a Japanese version of the game has been announced, details are still vague regarding when it will be released. Thus, he is still very obscure in Japan at the moment. Considering how Sakurai decided to exclude Takamaru from the playable roster due to his lack of recognition outside of Japan, something tells me Shovel Knight will most likely get the same treatment. There is the small chance, however, that Shovel Knight's inclusion into Smash Bros could promote his game's release in Japan, but I don't have much confidence in that.

Want: 5%

I think he'd be a fun character to play with based on how he uses his shovel from the Shovel Knight games and the different possibilities that could stem from it, but he's not a character I'm particularly interested in seeing at the moment. If I had to pick an Indie rep for Smash, I'd go with Shantae, and when it comes to third party, I would take Professor Layton over everyone else (Layton is my most wanted after all). If Shovel Knight does make it in, however, I will likely be satisfied with his inclusion as long as his reveal trailer and moveset make him exciting enough.

Predictions:

We're rating Isaac again tomorrow?

I remember reading what happened the last time Isaac was re-rated, and it wasn't pretty. Let's hope there won't be a repeat of that day.

Isaac (Golden Sun): 44.39%
Additional Stages for All-Star Mode: 6.56%

Nominations:

Jin Kazama (Tekken): x5

 

[NintenRob]

Another 5 for my concept please

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Tom Nook: Double Zeroes

Isaac: 49%
Additional All-Star stages: 4%

Tyrantrum 5x

 

[ShinyRegice]

Tom Nook chances: 0.01%
One of the most important figures of the Animal Crossing series, but already a Final Smash cameo, and even if against all odds we get an animal from the series as a playable character I'd fully expect it to be Isabelle considering she's pretty much the series main mascot at this point. At least he was not openly mocked by Sakurai like Chrom was.

Tom Nook want: 30%
I'd be open to the idea of an animal from AC as a Smash fighter, but more for SSB5 rather than SSB4 DLC.

-----

Shovel Knight chances: 3.10%
A chances score multiplied by over 100 times compared to my last rating... okay I'll start by admitting that comparing his chances with a Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor was stupid bashing, lol. However the only reason why I'm giving him a considerably higher score is because of some rumors, most notably from the guy who claimed that Shovel Knight was getting an amiibo while still claiming that he would still be revealed as a Smash fighter even after that the amiibo was confirmed to be unrelated to Smash, and some other though much more iffy claims, for example a comment on a online store from someone who supposedly got exclusive early access to the amiibo telling that he would be a Smash character. I overall don't believe those rumors, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and thus give Shovel Knight a chances score high enough to not be negligible. If at the end of October Shovel Knight isn't revealed then I'll consider those rumors as false and go back to consider his chances as close to none.

Besides, Shovel Knight isn't a character I see being chosen by Sakurai himself, due to lacking appeal in the East and having yet to stand the test of time (because really, one year is not enough for third-party standards). I've seen a supposed 4chan leak (obviously most likely fake) claiming that Sakurai originally was against him but did put him due to both strong ballot support in America and some talk with NoA representatives such as Reggie who convinced him to do this choice, which I suppose may sound plausible. The ballot is said to be open to all video game characters, so at least he's not downright ineligible, and his game is set to launch soon in Japan.

Shovel Nope (0% want)
Sorry, no. I've often joked about MUH RELEVANCE RECENCY!!!!1!1!! for characters whose recency seems to be their most obvious redeeming quality, but Shovel Knight would be even worse due to being a third-party character. It should be remembered that Super Smash Bros. at its core is about the Nintendo lore, and I'm of the opinion that third-party characters by nature don't belong in the series and should be reserved for exceptional opportunities for the sake of adding pure awesomeness first-party characters aren't going to deliver. Compared to the third-party characters who actually appeared in Smash as of now, Shovel Knight really feels like his inclusion would just be a promotional trick profiting from the one-year old hype which recently surrounded him, well before he proves himself to stand the test of time as an highly influential gaming character, and overall he would feel like a very intrusive inclusion for the sake of it.

"B-butt his game is so awesome!!" Yeah but just because a game is awesome doesn't mean it should overweigh the fact it's third-party and not one with high historical influence and relevance. Not to mention him making it in thanks to the ballot would represent a thing I thought about and somewhat feared during the April direct when it was announced, "I just hope people won't suddenly massively vote on someone who doesn't belong in Smash at all", which was a thought which came in my mind mostly as a joke I did to myself but could actually come to truth. Also we literally already have a third-party platformer hero with retro appeal and a huge arsenal at his disposal... honestly as a third-party Shovel Knight doesn't seem like he would add much to Smash when we already have Mega Man.

Now I don't want to hate on Shovel Knight or the series itself, and I have nothing against the fact he is getting an amiibo. Nintendo is supporting their fellow indie developers and I think it's a good thing, and I would be okay with Shovel Knight getting a cute cameo appearance in Smash such as a trophy or a Mii costume. It's not like Shovel Knight needs to be playable to get promotion and exposure thanks to Smash - trophies in the Wii U version made me interested in picking up The Wonderful 101 after all. A fully-fledged playable appearance, on the other hand, would feel way too intrusive and not worth it due to not expanding on what I expect Super Smash Bros. to be about first and foremost - representing Nintendo.

-----

Isaac prediction: 50.95%
I don't expect him to go bellow the 50% chances mark anytime soon.

Additional rounds in all-star more prediction: 37.88%
There are files in the game that suggest it after all.

Nominating:
Balance change: universal hitstun increase x5

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Toom Nook Chance and Want: Abstain
Shovel Knight Chance: Abstain
Want: 0%- Absolutely not! I want third-party characters that are actually iconic among a wider gaming audience, not niche third-party characters. Shovel Knight would just stick out like a sore thumb for all the wrong reasons.

 

[Troykv]

Tom Nook:

Chance: 0%

He isn't officialy deconfirmed unlike Chrom, but he is still in a similar sittuation

Want: Abstain

Shovel Knight...

Ugh... This character has special bangwangoning that makes impossible to me calified him.

Chance and Want: Abstain

Predictions:

Issac: 52.24% (Something pretty much the same)
Additional All-Stars rounds: 33.21%

Edit:

Nominations:

Idolm@ster Representation x2
Fire Emblem Stage DLC x1
Shadow the Edge Hedgedog x1
Rerate! Micaiah x1

(Saving five extra-nominations).

 

[Laniv]

Shovel Knight:

Chance and Want: Abstain


Tom Nook:

Chance: 1%
Villager's Final Smash

Want: 78%
Remember pre-Brawl when everyone pegged him as the AC rep? Maybe next time.

Predictions for Isaac: 60% Chance, 86% Want
Predictions for Additional All-Star stages: 6% Chance, 52% Want

Nominate Nester x 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Shovel Knight Chance:
25%
Push thinks that it is 75%, but unless I actually see the sources he confronted, I'm on the skeptical side. My gut tells me that this could be fake. An indie character being added was a notable possibility I considered, but I didn't think it would be now.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
I checked the Directory and saw what I said on Shovel Knight's day. I said to look back on Shantae's day, and I did. So, I will copy and paste what I said on that day, but just replace "Shantae" with "Shovel Knight".

The main thing that is really holding her back is iconic / legendary status. Technically, no such rule actually exists, but you have to sit and ask yourself if the character is legendary or worthy enough to be placed alongside gaming icons like Sonic, Mega Man, and Pac-Man. Shantae is a character that really can't be placed among these icons due to a lack of iconic status. As for legendary, she really isn't that either. Characters like Bomberman, Simon Belmont, Ryu, and veteran Snake are legendary and iconic, Rayman is kinda legendary, Phoenix Wright and Professor Layton are pseudo-legendary. Then we have Shantae, who is really an icon for indie developers; I don't think that is a good enough push for her to get in before the characters I just mentioned.
I am aware that her developer said that they want her in the game, but a lot of developers do. Suda 51 wants Travis Touchdown in Smash and some devs from Microsoft want Banjo-Kazooie in the game, so this really isn't special. You can chalk up Snake here, but at least he is, again, iconic and legendary and the person who requested to put their character in the game, Hideo Kojima, is a friend of Sakurai.
Overall, I think some of these scores that I am seeing right now are a bit inflated.

But I have two more things to add.
1. Shovel Knight is a complete unknown in Japan. Hell, his game hasn't even been released in Japan yet. That's a major detriment to his chances.
2. The Shovel Knight amiibo is significant for many reasons. However, this does not point to him being in Smash. It was a nice, promotional thing that Nintendo allowed Yacht Club Games to do. The amiibo was worked on for a year as well, which hurts the possibility of it being made for Smash Bros.

Now this leak... I think that it shouldn't be trusted. Sure, the guy is credible, but he has gotten several things wrong in the past. As such, we shouldn't take it as a Word of God, messiah, prophet, or whatever. Remember the Gematsu leak?

Overall, I don't think Shovel Knight stands a chance.

Want: 0%
To be honest, I am tired of hearing about Shovel Knight. I think that if he appeared over other 3rd party characters with great legacies, like Bomberman or Simon Belmont, I would find it to be insulting.

Tom Nook
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes
He is a part of a Final Smash, which would be a lot harder to change because you are essentially changing a part of a character on the roster.
I never wanted him anyway. I'm fine with Villager.

Additional All-Star Stages Prediction: 5.17%
*shrugs*
Isaac Prediction: 37.23%
Oh dear, Isaac again?

This is going to suck.

Nominations: Lyn 5x

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Shovel Knight's Chance: 10%
I just don't get it. Some random kid on the internet states a rumor, with no evidence to back it up, that the character might get into Smash Bros and people actually take it seriously? Unless we hear it from an official source, this one is about as true as any of the other countless hoaxes out there.

With that said, Shovel Knight not only suffers from being too new, but he's also from a tiny developer and isn't well known. There's also the fact that he's not heard of in Japan yet at all, which doesn't help his chances. The Amiibo may be a real thing, but it's confirmed to not be a Smash Bros one, and my guess is Nintendo's attempt to get the game recognized in Japan since they are publishing it there.

Honestly, I have the feeling a Mii Costume is the more-likely route for this character.

Shovel Knight's Want: 55%
I think he'd be an alright addition, but I've been started to not want him in just to prove this rumor false.

----------

Tom Nook's Chance: 0%
Hoo boy, now this one takes me back. In the Pre-Brawl days, this guy was pretty decisive and whole "wars" would spout between supporters and haters on Nintendo's own forums. Alot has changed since then, and Nook's popularity isn't what it used to be. Animal Crossing fans seem to be satisfied with Villager, as they should be since he's a really fun character, so I don't see much demand for another AC character. Also, there's that whole NPC thing going against him.

Tom Nook's Want: 0%
If Villager didn't make it in, I'd be perfectly happy with Animal Crossing getting the same treatment it had in Brawl. The series is so peaceful that having a fighter from it still feels weird, but Villager was so well done that I am glad he got in. But I really don't see anything else they could do with any of the other characters, so I don't have any interest in Nook in Smash Bros.

 

[a smart guy]

Shovel Knight:
Chance: 40% He doesn't have a Japanese translation yet. He would alienate half the fanbase if he was added in.
Want: 40% I would rather have other characters.

Tom Nook: Double 0s

Dr. Lobe x5 (A Mario Maker Costume counts for something, right?)

 

[Chandeelure]

-Shovel Knight:
Chances: 40%
Want: 30%

-Toom Nook:
Chances: 0%
Want: 50%

-Nominations:
Rerate Lana X5

 

[Zerp]

Shovel Knight:
Chances: 20% I'm not sure whether or not I believe the leak, but I feel that even if the leak is true he still has a chance to not make it, simply due to the obscene negative reception he's already gotten, pretty sure Sakurai would have seen that.
Want:0% The uproar was for good reason, Shovel Knight, while I like the character, truly does not deserve to be in Smash Bros.
Tom Nook:
Chances: 2%
Want: 40%
Predictions:
Additional All-Star Rounds: 18%
Isaac : 43.96%
Nominating: Clefairy x 5

 

[Mario123311]

Shovel Night:
Chance - 29%
Want - I don't mind.

The problem with him is that he is a new born indie who is not only NOT Nintendo, but he hasn't had much of a history with Nintendo. I'm sorry, but I don't think he's likely. At best we will get a swordfighter costume.

Tom Nook:
Chance/Want - Abstain (We have Villager already :/)


Now for someone who started as a clone later to become independent ((and still has a history with Nintendo...))

*Nomonates Giana x5*

 

[Deleted member]

Shovel Knight:
Chance:10%
If i was rating SK before all this rumor and amiibo shenanigans, i would have give him a 1%.
I could write a huge wall of text as to why but im not that kind of guy. Some people here have explained my feelings towards his chances.

Want: Abstain.
I haven't played Shovel Knight yet, but im planning on getting the Pyshical version once it gets released.
------------------------------
Tom Nook: ZeRo both for chance and want.
Shovel Knight is more likely than any AT/Boss/Final Smash promotion in my personal opinion. As for want, no thanks, the Villager is enough for me. (and i don't really care for AC)
------------------------------
Isaac:49.54
I maaaaaaaay post one of the comics tomorrow on a spoiler tag. But i hope people keep it civil tomrrow.
------------------------------
Noms:
Chrom X5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Tom Nook:

Chance: 0%
Want: 15%

He's already part of Villager's final smash and chances are that he won't get a promotion. While I would want him for Smash, I just find the idea of Isabelle much more appealing.

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 15%
Want: 20%

While he does have an Amiibo and ballot support, I seriously don;t see him happening since his game wasn't released in Japan yet. Then there's the fact that he is popular in the West, but unknown to the East (Which doesn't really matter for Mac since he was at least released there a few times). In the end, I'd prefer Shantae over him.

Predictions:

Issac: 37%

Additional All Star Battle Rounds: 29%

Nominate :

Ow the Edge (Shadow) x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Predictions: Tom Nook 2%
Predictions: Shovel Knight 2%

Tom Nook

Chance: 0%
Maybe next game.

Want: 10%

Shovel Knight

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions: Isaac 45%

Predictions: All star 1%

Nominations: John Raimi X5.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Nook

Chance: 1%, Want: 0%
He's a big recurring name in the Animal Crossing world, but the two they're pushing seems to be the villager him/herself and Isabelle. The way it's going, he may have to get in line.
Besides, he's part of a moveset, which can't be as easily commented out as ATs or bosses.
​

Shovel Knight

Chance: 25%, Want: 0%
Isn't this interesting...a rumor, and then an amiibo. Thinks are definitely looking good for him. Except he's still pretty much a one-region wonder, and is honestly not the most iconic third party character possible. I don't think the strict rules for third-parties could or should be relaxed just because the third party in question is indie.

I don't really want any third-parties who are not super gaming icons in their own right, and I don't think that bandwagons or begging developers or indie status automatically makes someone an icon. Frankly, I don't like the look of the game as is. Sure, 16-bit graphics were the height of technology...in the 90s. Now, it's got the same retreaux feeling that allows certain people to pretend they're better than everyone else since they listen to obsolete vinyl records. There may be charm in using certain graphical styles, but it is hard to pull off correctly. Done well, it's artistic. If they do it so they can be "OMG so retro let's get the 90s fans!" it honestly comes off a bit pathetic to me. But that's just how I feel, and I accept that some people like it. I just don't.

I think that most non-iconic third parties would work best as Mii costumes. They'd then be referenced, but then it would not feel like they're taking the spot from deserving characters from Nintendo's history. Shovel Knight in particular would make a great swordsman costume, as he also has the same proportions as a Mii.
​

Isaac prediction: 39.8%
More battle rounds prediction: 21.2%

Nom: 7+ DLC x5

 

[Rockaphin]

Tom Nook:

Chance: 2.5%
Want: 85%

Yes, I want Mr. Nook. Animal Crossing could merit at least 2 characters.

Shovel Knight:

Chance: Abstain
Want: 8%

Seems like a game that I'd like, but I'm not interested seeing him in Smash.

Nominations:
Paper Mario Theatre Stage x5

 

[Oasis Dealer]

Tom Nook
Chance: 0%
Part of Villager's final smash, doesn't have much of a shot after that.

Want: Abstain

Shovel Knight
Chance: 25%
Gone up a bit since my last rating of him, but not by much. There's still the rumor that he's possibly planned for to appear in Smash 4 as a playable character, but who knows what's happening with that. It's been said since August he will be revealed in about a month or two, and the ballot is almost over. Maybe by then, we'll know his fate. For now, I'm keeping low on his chances, though I'll be cautious about him.

Want: 90%
I've since gone down from my original rating of him, but not by much. Shovel Knight is a pretty cool character. Is that enough to make him playable? No, but it's because of the ballot why there's the very small chance of it happening. Would love to see music, a stage, and that great 3D model. On top of that, Shovel Knight is on the rise to be a pretty prominent indie character, possibly even one of the faces of it. If you look at what he's accomplished in one year, (More than 10 different appearances in other indie games, Crossed over with two IPs from Sony and Microsoft, and now has an amiibo that has been stated to work with Nintendo products along with future Yacht Club Games) he's done some big things. I know people wouldn't like his inclusion, but whatever, this is what I want to see.

 

[Smasher 101]

No time to explain today:

Tom Nook's chances: 0%
Want: 70%

Shovel Knight's chances: 20%
Want: 0%

Skipping predictions today.

Nominations: Lyn x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Tom Nook
Chance: 0%
Want: 55%

Shovel Knight
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Isaac again Prediction: 54.67%
More All Star Battles Prediction: 20%

Nominations:
Rerate Jibanyan x3
Endou Mamoru x2

 

[colder_than_ice]

Tom Nook
Double Zeroes

Shovel Knight
Chance: 10% - He's unknown in Japan, and most of his popularity seems like bandwagon support. The amiibo is a little suspicious though.
Want: 0% - He's a completely generic knight with bull horns and a shovel. I find his design more unoriginal than the 1980 artwork for Pacman.

Nominations: Solo Ice Climber x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

TOM NOOK
CHANCE: 0.38%
WANT: 20.09%

SHOVEL KNIGHT
CHANCE: 17.99%
WANT: 22.22%
​

Shovel Knight "chance" rating went way up but WOW did he ever get a low "want" rating for a character that is widely believed to have a shot. Next up we're rating Isaac (please be gentle) and the concept of us getting new All Star rounds. Also please predict what score Mike from Drawn to Life and Tyrantrum from Pokemon will get tomorrow.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Question: Is my last nomination not eligible or something, because I don't see it on the nominations list.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Question: Is my last nomination not eligible or something, because I don't see it on the nominations list.

It's counted as "Rerate: 7+ DLC characters" That's basically the same thing, you're just nominating the opposite direction.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining from the concept of new All-Star rounds.

Isaac

Chance: 30%

I may have overrated him last time. After what happened with K. Rool, part of me wouldn't be surprised if Isaac also got the Mii costume treatment. In hindsight, I also think giving him a chance score near Wolf's 50% is a bit too high.

Want: 100%

Predictions:

Mike (Drawn to Life) - 0%

This won't end well.

Tyrantrum - 1%

Nominations: Zael Mii Costume x10

 

[BluePikmin11]

Isaac Chance:
12.5%
Remains the same as before, as no real news has popped up to warrant a change in his score. I don't expect him to be playable even though I have a bit of a liking of his moveset potential.

To summarize it before:
+Moveset potential
+Popularity
+Decent franchise popularity
-A franchise that has a low priority of getting of a future release with Camelot focusing on Mario Tennis.
-A noticeably lack of Smash content, treated with the amount of content as other small Nintendo franchises.
-May not have enough beneficial factors for Sakurai to consider for playability, his absence in the roster in Brawl and Smash 4 shows.

I'll requite if you need it.

He's pretty much set on terms of moveset potential and already has the demand to get considered yet again. I am still not confident in Isaac, his demand doesn't magically make his main issue go away.

Sakurai has stated before that "characters and series that have no plans for future releases, or a low possibility of future releases, inevitably will be considered lower priority." Golden Sun is likely one of those franchises who he considered to have a bleak future. Camelot has stated that if there was enough demand for a Golden Sun 4, they would do it, but not much demand regarding a sequel has spawned since. (character demand doesn't count) Even K. Rool fans have managed to get Retro Studio's attention when it comes to K. Rool coming back, and the demand for a new GS low in comparison.

Camelot is a small development studio and only able to focus and develop one game at a time, unlike others like Retro Studios and Intelligent Systems who are able to develop multiple games at the same time due to their massive success in many of their games. Camelot's current focus is on the Mario Tennis: Ultra Smash for the Wii U. With no new GS currently in development, Sakurai will likely consider Isaac a lower priority again since the franchise's state hasn't changed since the debut of Dark Dawn. (Dark Dawn itself didn't reach the high expectations Camelot was hoping for)

Isaac's biggest opportunity in getting in Smash was during Brawl, when the series peaked large popularity. He did have the demand and moveset potential at the time. But despite of all of the things GS has accomplished, the franchise has gotten just an AT and a music track. Let's also bring up the this quote straight from the Brawl dojo:

When they’re all lined up like this, it becomes obvious that there is roughly 6-year blank before and after Pikmin. While there have been big series since then like "Animal Crossing," "Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day," and "Wii Sports" it does seem that coming up with a completely new character-driven series has gotten more difficult recently.

Among the many new series newcomers he added, he did not consider GS to be big enough to be playable. The biggest opportunity vanished, and Sakurai did not think he was worthy for character, but instead as an AT.

The matters get worse for Smash 4, little content has merged in the game this time. The only content GS has managed to get is two music tracks, getting the same treatment as many other C-Tier list series like Style Savvy, Wonderful 101, Glory of Heracles and many other series. It's likely that his opinion hasn't changed with Isaac since deciding Smash 4's roster, and I doubt that he will somehow change his mind even if he considers Isaac for the 3rd time with the ballot.

Isaac came at a really bad time. With Camelot focusing on a different project, the bleak future for the franchise, and Sakurai past treatment of the GS series in Smash, I feel he's one of the less likely characters to get chosen. Ballot demand isn't going to change his position on Isaac, his franchise needs more notable factors to be a playable character.

Still not as confident as last time.

 

[Chandeelure]

-Isaac:
Chances: 30%
He is popular here and that's it IMO.
His AT was removed and he was not a pre-ballot character, I'm pretty sure that's something negative.
His popularity in Japan is meh and Sakurai said that characters from franchises with no future are low priority.
It's also a pretty small and unpopular franchise, like Custom Robo.
So yeah, I honestly think he is pretty overrated.
Want: 30%

-More All-Star rounds:
Chances: 25%
Want: 100%
Some rounds have a lot of characters.

-Nominations:
Rerate Lana X5