Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[LIQUID12A]

This is unnecessary and is just going to make people mad.
Unless that's not how you meant it.

It's not.

Assist Trophies are the quickest things to rate anyway, so it's way of saying "move along, nothing more needs to be said".

 

[Kenith]

It's not.

Assist Trophies are the quickest things to rate anyway, so it's way of saying "move along, nothing more needs to be said".

Okay, my bad.

 

[Fire Rider]

Ghirahim:
Chance: 0% Assist Trophy NOW
Want: 0% No thanks

Exitebiker
Chance: 25%
I want more Mach Rider over Exite Biker could be and alt of it. Chance Alt of Mach Rider: 65%
Want: 75%
Could have a good fighting skills potential similar to Akira from Capcom's Rival Schools

Spoiler

But I want more Mach Rider.

Prediction:
Isabelle: 000000000000000000.00%
New Kirby Stage: 0%
I don't want more Kirby Stages

 

[Sid-cada]

Exitebiker

Chance - 0.67% - Good-ish for a retro, but I just don't think he has that push factor for him.

Want - 60% - While I would prefer Mach Rider insead, I think they can get away with comositing the two, and their' kinda cool.



Ghirahim

Chance - 0% - Assist trophies, in my eyes, have no chance in the game their in. Don't even have think about it. Maybe next game.

Want - 35% - I'd prefer focusing on the Toon games more, for the moment.


Predictions

Isabelle - 1.67% - A popular character, but an assist trophy.

Newer Kirby Stage - 2.52% - Not looking likely...


Nominations
Ballot Runner-ups get honors X5

Basically giving them a consolation prize, some sort of acknowledgement without actually being playable.

 

[POKEMANSPIKA]

Excitebiker:
Chance: 35%
Not much fan demand but is an icon of the NES. Sakurai couldn't find a way for him to logically jump in Melee (are you ****ing kidding me, just make him use a turbo boost.)
Want: 90%
Excitebiker isn't my favorite retro choice but I think his status as a retro icon and his classic franchise makes him more than deserving to be in Smash.

Ghirahim:
Chance: 5%
He's an AT and has only been a one off villain in the Zelda series. He did appear in Hyrule Warriors but tons of other Zelda characters did.
Want: 10%
He'd have a cool moveset. I don't really want him though since back in around 2012 that idea of Ghirahim replacing Ganondorf as the Zelda villain in Smash kind of ruined him for me. **** you AGEntertainment.

Predictions:
Isabelle: 5%
New Kirby Stage: 10%

Nominations:
Samurai Goroh 5x

 

[Smasher 101]

@ Aetheri wins for Tiki; @KingBro1 , @Nimbostratus , @ Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma , and @ Troykv all win for the Kirby song.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

@ Aetheri wins for Tiki; @KingBro1 , @Nimbostratus , @ Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma , and @ Troykv all win for the Kirby song.

YES! YES!

Adding five extra nominations to Agumon.

 

[Troykv]

@ Aetheri wins for Tiki; @KingBro1 , @Nimbostratus , @ Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma , and @ Troykv all win for the Kirby song.

Oh! Yay!

Rerate! Micaiah now is x10

 

[Icedragonadam]

Excitebiker:

Chance: 3%

Blah blah not enough support on the ballot because it's fanservice from here on out. Blah blah.

Want: 25%

Only because a bike/motorcycle themed moveset would be interesting.

Ghirahim

Chance: 2%

He's already an assist trophy.

Want: 30%

I don't like this guy as much compared to other Zelda characters.

Predictions:

Isabelle: 2.45%

New Kirby stage: 4.03%

Nominations:

Smash 4 NX port x5

 

[Laniv]

Excitebiker:

Chance: 17%
Out of all the retro characters, Excitebiker doesn't really come up that often. In the case of motorbike fighters, the poor fellow gets shunted aside in favor of Mach Rider.

Want: 50%
If I had to pick a retro it'd be Takamaru or Sable Prince, but...

Ghirahim:

Chance: 0%
Assist Trophy.

Want: 35%
Hey, another villain! It'd be cool. Man I need to finish Skyward Sword...

Predictions for Isabelle: 0.5% Chance, 70% Want
Predictions for New Kirby Stage: 4% Chance, 72% Want

Nominate Daisy rerate x 5

 

[Scamper52596]

Excitebiker
Chance: 9.2%
If we're going to get another retro character as DLC, Excitebiker is certainly an option. The problem is that I don't think we'll get a retro DLC character unless it's somehow Ice Climbers. The developers have to play it more safe when it comes to selling DLC characters, and there are too many casual players who just won't be interested in a retro newcomer. I'll give the retro biker a chance of 9.2%.
I wonder if his stage would be anything similar to the F-Zero stage...

Want: 12%
I guess you could say that I'm indifferent, but nothing about the Excitebiker's inclusion really appeals to me.


Ghirahim
Chance: 0.2%
I was never confident in his chances even before his role as an Assist was revealed. Sure he's a memorable character and all, but the Zelda franchise is just too big to warrant him representing only one game from it. I'll give the Demon Lord a small rating of 0.2%.
At least he made it as an Assist Trophy...

Want: 0.3%
There are other Zelda characters that I'd much rather have over him.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Excitebiker Chance:
10%

Named one of Nintendo's classic NES characters, Excitebiker is one of the few retro characters left who has an actual shot left as Smash DLC. He has gotten recent exposure again through Excitebiker World Rally for the Wiiware and its own course in Mario Kart 8. I'm not confident in a retro in general, but it is certainly an open possibility for pre-ballot DLC.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Deleted member]

@ Aetheri wins for Tiki; @KingBro1 , @Nimbostratus , @ Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma , and @ Troykv all win for the Kirby song.

Five extra nominations to the concept of an NX Port.

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Excitebiker

Chance: 10%

Want: 25%

Ghirahim

Chance: 0%

Want: 5%

Predictions: Isabelle 1%

Predictions: New Kirby stage 5%

Nominations: Pious X5.

 

[Delzethin]

Both of today's characters were heavily speculated even as recently as a year ago. I guess it goes to show you just how unpredictable these things are.

-♪-

Excitebiker

Chance: 9%
A retro character with some ties to previous games, if rumors are to be believed. Sakurai considered an Excitebiker character for Melee (as well as Mach Rider), but had trouble figuring out how they'd get around and coming up with a full moveset. Anything can happen now with DLC, though, right?

The biggest strike against the Excitebiker comes from the Smash Ballot...and how little support there is for any retro character that isn't the Ice Climbers. The fans aren't clamoring for it, and so for it to happen, Sakurai would have to add more newcomers outside of the Ballot and pick the Excitebiker over however many others.

And with no notable roles lately or reason to think he was looked at early on, I can't put a lot of faith in this one.

Want: 20%
A character fighting from a bike would be a novelty, but beyond that, I'm not interested. If we're going to get a character who fights from a vehicle, I'd rather it was Mach Rider.


Ghirahim

Chance: 4%
Seen as a frontrunner for the longest time, Ghirahim was relegated to being an Assist Trophy. I wonder how that makes him feel?

That very status is what has killed his support. Even though support for so many Zelda newcomers is still strong, Ghirahim's hemorrhaged followers over the last few months. Impa, Tetra, and Toon Zelda seem to have overtaken him, and among the Zelda ATs, even Midna has a leg up now in popularity!

And with no proof they're even considering making summons playable...well, I imagine Ghirahim's heart is filled with anything but rainbows right now.

Want: 30%
My own interest has fallen off as well. (Insert third witty reference here)


Isabelle Prediction: 1.50%
A character no one is asking for that is already a summon.

Prediction for the Concept of a Modern Kirby Stage: 30.50%
Most of this will probably revolve around Bandana Dee's chances and if a new stage would accompany him.


Nominations: Serperior x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Got a birthday date coming soon so I can't hang around here much longer.

Excitebiker

Chance: 10%

Want: 75%

Ghirahim

Chance: 0%

Want: 60%

Predictions: Isabelle 2%

Predictions: New Kirby stage 5%

Nominations: Lana x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Excitebiker's chances: 10%

If we got a retro character he has a chance, but I'm not expecting a new retro character at all.

Want: 50%

If we were to get a bike-based character, I would prefer Mach Rider as I feel they would be more interesting. I would be fine with this though.

Ghirahim's chances: 0.5%

Want: 20%

He'd be ok I guess, but to be honest I personally feel that assist is the right spot for him.

Isabelle prediction: 3.50%
Kirby stage prediction: 6.87%

Nominations: Gardevoir x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Excitebiker
Chance: 2% - I can see it happening, barely.
Want: 80% - I'd personally prefer them over Mach Rider at least.

Ghirahim
Chance: 1%
Want: 60%

Nominations: Tag team stock mode x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

EXCITEBIKER
CHANCE: 12.19%
WANT: 46.47%

GHIRAHIM
CHANCE: 1.02%
WANT: 41.89%
​

Next up we're rating Isabelle of the Animal Crossing series and the concept of us getting a Kirby stage from a newer Kirby game. Also please predict what scores Agumon and Talim will get tomorrow.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Isabelle Chance:
5%
Pre-planned to be a DLC costume, I don't think she'll stand much of a chance at all unless the ballot votes are high.
Given with the Isabelle fanbase, I'd like to say it's support pretty decent, but not enough for Sakurai to notice. She definitely has the merits to get in as the top contender in Smash 5. I am 90% sure of that (and the fact that Isabelle support will multiply by x5) with her being pushed by Nintendo, being an extremely popular AC character, and some relatively unique characteristics to offer.

Hopefully she gets in along with Tom Nook, because the merchant is who I really want.

Nominations:
x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[Deleted member]

Isabelle

Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

She's both an Assist Trophy AND a Mii costume. NEXT!

Stage From a Newer Kirby Game

Chance: 1%

There's Sakurai's bias and I don't expect many stages.

Want: 70%

Predictions:

Agumon - 5%

Talim - 2.5%

Hmm...

Nomination: NX Port x5

 

[Fire Rider]

Again...

Isabelle
Chance: 000000000000000000.00% Mii & Assist Trophy
Want: -9999.99% = 0%

New Kirby Stage
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I don't want more Kirby Stages

Predictions:
Agumon: 0% ¿Digimon? Are you serious?
Talim: Abstain

Sorry

Nomination: Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes) x5

 

[Aetheri]

Isabelle

Chance: 5%
Nintendo's new baby basically, she surged in popularity with the success of Animal Crossing, but she's got the NPC label that hinders her as much as others...She's got a new Mii Outfit though (which shouldn't really affect her chances on it's own)

----

Want: 5%
She's cute (and I'm a dog person)...and that's about as positive as I'd get for her...don't care for her all that much, not a fan of Animal Crossing (or any Life simulation games tbh, I find them to be very pointless) and there are a particular few characters I'd be fine to get the promotion over my most wanted and she's not one of them...

----

Concept: New Kirby Stage

Chance: 23%
There is a chance we may get a stage with each newcomer, in this case it would most likely be Bandana Dee, although so far Suzaku Castle came with Ryu who's part of a previously unrepresented frachise, not to mention we did just get the Dreamland stage. However if the demand is there for a new Kirby stage to go with B Dee's possible addition then it may happen...but that's based on the assumption that we'd even get Bandana Dee, yes he's one of the more popular candidates but at this point that doesn't guarantee their addition

----

Want: 100%
Don't have too many complaints about any of the Kirby stages we've had and they are amoung some of the most fun to play on...I would love for Fountain of Dreams to return with it's epic music and atmosphere but a new stage sounds just as appealing...

----

Predictions:
Agumon: 1.34%

Talim: 4.56%

Two Namco's in one day dayum...

----

Nominations:
Using my extra nomnomnomnoms from yesterday...
Concept: New Metroid Prime Stage x5 (almost there )
Concept: Tetris Stage x3 (getting there...)
!Rerate: Midna x2 (well if people are starting to nominate Midna again for a rerate then Wynaut?)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Isabelle

Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

The only reason she's got a non-zero want score is that I can recognize she has popularity, and is basically the secondary face of Animal Crossing (and considering the primary face is a customizable playable character, she's the most important set character now). That and Nintendo's pushing her to no end.

Why the low chance then? She's got a role in the game already - true, that doesn't necessarily nix anyone, but it does mean they'd need extra pull to get in, and a lot of her fanbase has moved on. Also, and unlike any of the other assists we've rater thus far, she got a Mii costume. Both of these together kind of make her seem really unlikely.

I'd almost put her at a lock for 5mash, but for now...probably not...
​

New Kirby Stage

Chance: 1%
Want: 50%

A lot of people have been pointing to the bias that Sakurai admits he totally, absolutely, positively does not have, so that in iteslf seems unlikely. We don't know much about stage DLC so far - we've got Retro returns and a brand new stage to come with a newcomer franchise. Will we get a new stage from an existing franchise anyway?

Want? meh...I like stages. Don't really need Kirby but meh.
​

Agumon prediction: 1.5%
Talim prediction: 0.7%

Nom: Gardevoir x5

 

[Deleted member]

Isabelle

Abstained

New Kirby level

Chances : 7

Want : 33

Predictions

Unavailable

Nominating Galacta Knight x5

 

[Smasher 101]

@ ShinyRegice wins for Excitebiker, @XenoBrawler610 wins for Ghirahim.

 

[Drason]

Isabelle
Chance: 0%
*Looks at Mii Outfit*
Want: 0%
New Kirby Stage
Chance: 25%
Want:50%
Predictions:
Agumon
0.9%
Talim
23.76%
Nomination:
KnucklesX3(Sonic)
Silver(Sonic)

 

[JBRPG]

Isabelle
Chance: 1%
Want: 4%

New Kirby Stage
Chance: 5%
Want: 5%

Augumon - 2%

Talim - 18%

Nomination

Serperior x 5

 

[Deleted member]

Modern Kirby stage:
Chance:Abstain
I have no idea
Want:23%
It would be cool i guess?
------------------------------
Isabelle:
Chance and Want:

(oh look, another Zero joke)
I already talked about in Ghirahim's day that for me, AT's are screwed over and have 0 chance in my opinion.

As for Want, sorry Isabelle, but you're not my top pick for a promotion from AT (Waluigi, Ghirahim and Takamaru are my choices) or a Mii costume (the Inklings are my choices for that and Zero just for Giggles).

I should mention that i don't think beign a Mii costume makes you have 0% chance, i just think it hurts a for the most part in the long run. (not as much as beign an AT tough for sure).
-------------------------------------
Predictions:
Agumon:1.44

Spoiler

i just love this song okay?

Talim:1.11 This is the Soul Calibur character right?
--------------------------------------
Nominations:
Fire Emblem Mii costumes X5.

 

[Sid-cada]

Isabelle

Chance - 0% - Assist trophy. With a Mii Costume. A double cross out...

Want - 10% - Eh... I think the Villager does about everything a character can do from Animal Crossing...


Kirby Stage

Chance - 1.25% - One might get bundled with Bandanna Dee, but right now I'm convinced that Sakurai's bias for his Kirby games is too big of an obstetrical to overcome.

Want - 100% - Honestly would like to have this more than Fountain of Dreams, if only to prove that Sakurai does, in fact, care about modern Kirby.


Predictions

Agumon - 2.13%- Well, he should be considered, at least.

Talim - 0.24% - I'd think Nightmare would be chosen first...


Nominations

Non-playable representation for Ballot Runners-up X5 (Thanks, Captain, for giving a better name for this.)

 

[Chandeelure]

-New Kirby stage from newer Kirby games:
Chances: 5%
Want: 100%

-Nominations:
!Rerate Magolor X5

 

[NintenRob]

Isabelle
Both 0%
I'm not exactly a fan of Animal Crossing and being in Mario Kart already annoys me, thankfully she's already an Assist and Mii Costume.

Newer Kirby Stage
Chance: 2%
We already have one Kirby dlc stage and we've never had a Kirby stage from a game Sakurai didn't make. The 2% is the possibility that Bandana Dee is added and he gets a stage with him.

Want: 70%
The more Kirby the better, and also increases the possibility of CROWNED, I hope for something like Another Dimension, Nutty Noon, Royal Road, Squeak Hideout or Nutty Noon.

Prediction
Augumon 2%
Tallim 2.1%

Nominate Baby Mario x5

 

[GaroMaster]

Well, this is going to be my first rating on this thread. Here's to hoping I don't mess up.


Isabelle
Chance: 0%
First an Assist Trophy, now a Mii Costume. If they would have made her a fighter, it would've happened before Smash 4's release.
Want: 0%
I'm not the biggest fan of Animal Crossing nor am I in want to for a new representative. Maybe Smash 5.

A Kirby stage from a newer Kirby game
Chance: 1%
With limited resources on stages, Dreamland already DLC, and Sakurai constantly not giving recognition to the more recent Kirby games, he might want to promote DLC characters by making them stages. Then again, there could be a new stage that comes along with Bandana Dee, but Dreamland is already DLC.
Want: 0%
I'm perfectly content with the Kirby stage roster as of now.

Predictions:
Augumon: 3.84%
Tallim: 2%

Nominations:
Rerate Rayman x5

 

[Delzethin]

Tonight's first candidate would do anything to-

...Okay, probably not anything, but she'd put up with a lot of paperwork if it meant having the chance of the previous two.

-♪-

Isabelle
(There we go. This color works better for her.)

Chance: 1.5%
Animal Crossing finally broke into the roster this time around with the Villager and his #@%&ing slingshot, and some are already wondering if any more could join him or her in the next Smash. Isabelle gained a lot of fans from her role in New Leaf as the player's assistant, leaving some to wonder if we could see a second Animal Crossing character sooner than Smash 5.

It's a huge stretch, though. Isabelle is already an Assist Trophy, and a pretty rare defensive one, at that. There's already the roadblock of having to be supported enough for the developers to feel like turning her from a summon to a playable character, something we still don't know if they'd even be willing to do!

I doubt it'd ever come to that, though, because Isabelle's support for DLC is almost nothing.

Want: Abstain
I never did get around to playing New Leaf--it's been a while since I've played an Animal Crossing game at all. I only have a vague idea of what her moveset could be like, so I'll sit this one out.


Concept: New "Modern" Kirby Stage

Chance: 20%
Let's get something out of the way first: This whole "Sakurai doesn't like the new Kirby games" thing is a load of bull. Sure, the two new Kirby stages this time around were based on games he was a part of, but since when does that mean he automatically hates modern Kirby? It might've even been a reason as a simple as letting him skip a step by not having to get the rights for content he himself created. If the fact that there're a few music tracks from modern Kirby games means anything, including one from Kirby Triple Deluxe on new addition Dream Land 64, I think we can safely say he has nothing against them.

What does interefere with this is how many more new stages his team is willing to make. He left us with an ambiguous line last month about how they could "only make so many" stages, which could be on the mark but could also be Sakurai playing it safe again with what he announces. The only DLC newcomer so far came with a stage, but Ryu was a very big deal, and so we don't know if that'll carry over to future newcomers.

The good news is, if it does, there's a very good chance we'll see a new Kirby stage from the modern era. Bandana Dee's a frontrunner in the Smash Ballot, and modern Kirby is where he's risen to prominence. He has a pretty solid chance, and so the bigger question is whether a stage would accompany him.

Want: 50%
Kirby games are always some of the best looking on their systems, their stages in Smash have been no exception, and if it's a tournament-viable stage it gets that much better. Plus, it means more awesome Kirby music.


Agumon Prediction: 2.37%
You may think I'm overrating this one. Let's just say I have a feeling there'll be a couple outliers...

Talim Prediction: 2.13%
The same applies here.


Nominations: Serperior x5

 

[Zerp]

Isabelle

Chances: 2% Assist Trophy, don't feel like explaining, but will give benefit of doubt to a smash 5 appearance.

Want: 0% No real interest here.

Modern Kirby Stage

Chances: 6% If Bandana Dee gets in, it would be the only real opportunity now to add it.

Want: 100% Kirby is literally the only first party non-retro franchise without a stage from a somewhat recent game, it's a bit overdue now, and Kirby has what I find to be the best soundtracks, and some of the best settings too. It would be perfect in my opinion, and if there's a series I'd personally most like to see be given more just representation, it's Kirby.

Predictions: Agumon: 7% I predict quite a bit of madness tomorrow.
Talim: 4% Should be relatively tame in comparison.
Nominations: Rerate! Wolf x 5, I'm really confused as to why, Wolf has above a 90% chance?

 

[ShinyRegice]

I accidentally posted this on the Smash Wii U stage discussion thread...

Isabelle chances: 0.38%
For the goods, she's basically Animal Crossing's official mascot at this point. However, she's both an Assist Trophy and a Mii costume. I doubt Sakurai is interested in making her playable right now.

Isabelle want: 25%
I don't care much about her or Animal Crossing in general, but I admit it could reasonably get another character considering the fame of the franchise and the recognizability of its animal characters. Isabelle is easily one of the most iconic animal characters from AC, and she looks like she'd be an okay choice to represent AC alongside Villager. I don't have a clue about what her moveset would be, though.

-----

Stage from "muh relevant" Kirby game chances: 3%
I really doubt we're getting any brand new stage unless they're bundled with characters, and even then I only expect characters bringing a new series to Smash to be bundled with these stages. Of course that's only based on the stage DLC precedence we currently have (which is not a lot for now), but I wouldn't be surprised if it's the pattern we follow. Sakurai's apparent apathy towards the Kirby games he didn't work on is also something that would make this even more unlikely.

Stage from "muh relevant" Kirby game want: 48%
I've played Triple Deluxe, but there's no specific location from that game which made me think "OMG!! This location needs to be in Smash!" but I wouldn't object a new stage anyway. At least as long as it's not some overly gimmick stage totally unplayable in serious 1vs1 stock battle no items, because you can bet I'm not going to buy these stages.

-----

Agumon prediction: 2.02%
Not sure if we will get Digimon contents even though Namco owns the series.

Talim prediction: 1.09%
A Soul Calibur character? I suppose it won't do well.

Nominating:
(Rerate) Playable newcomer: Rayman x5
I'll probably hold back my extra nominations until Rayman's day is set to happen.

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Isabelle
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

Stage from new Kirby game
Chance: 8%
Want: 100%

Agumon prediction: 2%
Talim prediction: 1%

Nominations:
Serperior 2x
Galacta Knight 3x

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Isabelle:
Chance: 0.1%
AT AND dang ugly Mii costume.

Want: 60%
She'd be cool

Muh Sakurai bias
Chance: 8%
Bandana Dee or Magolor needs to happen, along with a stage, that must be from post-Sakurai-era

Want: 100%
Bandana Dee or Magolor needs to happen.

Lana x5

 

[Troykv]

Isabelle:

Chance and want: Abstain

I don't care about the "doggy waifu"

Kirby Stage from Newer Games:

Chance: 20%

This needs two things: the Newcomers always have a Stage, and Bandana Dee is DLC (this is likeable).

Want: 75%

I don't know what level uses as a Stage, but I really like the idea to see no-Sakurai games get more love.

Predictions:

Agumon: 3.4%
Talim: 3.4%

Nominations:

Rerate! Micaiah x5

 

[Wintropy]

Isabelle

Chance: 5%

Want: 85%

She's very popular and Nintendo is very keen to market her, and I am a huge fan, yet she's an Assist Trophy in this game. For what we know right now, I think that undermines what chance she'd otherwise have.

Stage from a newer Kirby game

Chance: 10%

Want: 60%

I haven't played any of 'em, yet they look fun and new stages are very welcome. I only expect quick 'n' easy veteran stages at this stage of the game's development cycle, of course, so I doubt it's too likely.

Nomination: Gardevoir x 5