Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Sid-cada]

Agumon

Chance - 0.05% - Digimon doesn't seem to pull as much as it used to. While it still is around, it's no longer a culture juggernaut that is once was. I think he's the closest thing it has to a mascot, but I don't have much faith in further third parties.

Want - 20% - Eh... honestly I would probably get the same thing with a Vivosaur (or however Fossil Fighters spells it).


Talim

Chance - 0% - Not anything remotely important for the series, Nightmare would be the way to go, I think.

Want - 1% - Only because I don't know her enough to see if she would be interesting.


Predictions

Gardevoir - 20.12% - Slightly higher than Gallade, maybe?

Rayman - 49.35% - Maybe a slight increase?


Nominations

Non-playable representation for Ballot Runners-up X5

 

[Smasher 101]

@ colder_than_ice I am fine with postponing Gardevoir's day.

@[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer] wins for Isabelle, and @JackerX wins for the Kirby stage.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Okay everyone, we're holding off on Gardevoir's day and only doing Rayman tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Talim:
Chance:0.1%
Want:0%
No thanks, that's all im going to say.
-------------------
Agumon:
Chance and Want:1%

Why the one percent in want you might ask? Well, that's because Digimon Adventure 01 is part of my childhood, and i get memories watching DA 01 whenever i remember this guy. Stil, i don't think he should be in smash at all.
The music's awsome tough I mean just listen to this:

----------------------
Preditctions:
Rayman:27.23%
I deleted Gardevoir's prediction after hearing the news.
----------------------
Nominations:
Tetris Stage X5
Hey @Robert77, since when did you started to nominate this concept? just curious .

 

[Aetheri]

Nominations:
Tetris Stage X5
Hey @ Aetheri , since when did you started to nominate this concept? just curious .

fixed...didn't get a notification but just happened to see it...

it was sometime last week when I won some extra noms, saw the concept in the Nominations list and gave it some of them, have liked the idea quite a lot since the Tetrimino's day, since Tetris is arguably the most iconic game ever made and pretty much deserves some greater Smash recognition, even though a playable fighter wouldn't exactly work out too well given the game's characteristics, a Tetris themed stage would be amazing though...Once Iwata's Tribute day arrived I started nominating it full time...

 

[Delzethin]

Uh oh. I could be flying blind for some pretty big parts of this one.

Wind, guide me!

-♪-

Agumon

Chance: 0.15%
Remember when Digimon was looking like a possible rival series to Pokémon? The series has really fallen off over time, more of a niche thing now than anything prominent. That's a massive strike against, considering how iconic every third party character we've seen so far is.

Oh, and you know how Sakurai is against adding non-video game characters? Well, Digimon's video games have always taken a back seat to the anime and various merchandise. Agumon might not even qualify at all!

Want: Abstain
That said, it's been a long time since I've followed the series in any way, shape, or form. Though I can see how unlikely Agumon's chances are, I can't make a fair guess on how interesting he'd be.


Talim

Chance: 0.2%
Meanwhile, we have another Namco-Bandai character. Soul Calibur has been one of Namco's premier series, fellow fighting games where all the characters wield weapons. If Ryu is any precedent, there's some chance we could get a character from it into Smash.

...Here's the thing, though. For one, it's only a chance, and one we can't rely on until we have a better idea of how and why Ryu got in. For two, even though Soul Calibur is popular, it isn't on level of Street Fighter, and has only had a main game on a Nintendo system once! For three? Even though Talim's a fan favorite, she's far from the most prominent of Soul Calibur's cast. If we were to get someone from the series, it'd probably be someone like Siegfried!

An outclassed character from a series that doesn't even seem like a likely choice, the wind is not with Talim today.

Want: Abstain
It's been a long while since I've seriously played a Soul Calibur game. Pass.


Rayman Rerate Prediction: 26.25%
There'll be a lot of conflicting opinions, but I think he'll fall off a little.


Nominations: Serperior x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Talim
Chance: 0%
No chance at all. She's not even the face of Soul Calibur, which is something reoccurring characters like Nightmare, Ivy, hell even Cervantes and Kilik can boast. To add further insult to injury; Talim was one of the many cut characters in SCV, something even the new protagonists; Patrokolos and Pyhraa's mother Sophitia, the most glaring omission and a series staple, was subject to.

I firmly believe Talim is one of the last possible choices they'd pick for a Soul Calibur character, even if she debuted on the Gamecube. And the Xbox. And the PS2. SIMULTANEOUSLY.

Hell, it's not like Talim's the only character who debuted in this (not at all Gamcube exclusive) release either; Raphael debuted in SCII too, and he's been far more plot relevant to the series and even managed to not get cut from Soul Calibur V, which is actually pretty impressive.

Want: 0%
Fun fact: I co-mained Talim on SCII. She's a lot of fun. She doesn't, however, have any reason at all to be in Smash Bros.

Agumon
Chance: 8%
I was originally going to go with 0%, but then I thought 'actually Pokemon Vs. Digimon IS kind of fanservice'. Super unlikely still though, but at least if a Digimon was going to be picked it WOULD be Agumon.

Want: 50%
Not my favourite Digimon, but not my least favourite either. I quite enjoyed the series as a kid and wouldn't have an issue seeing him and Pikachu lock horns, even if he's not my first choice on Smash Bros. third party character.

 

[Troykv]

Wow... I don't what say about these ones.

Quadruple abstain

Predictions:

Rayman: 24.3%

Nominations:

Rerate! Micaiah x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Talim chances: 0%
I really really hate giving flat zeroes in chances (or instead you may consider this a something technically possible but so unlikely it's not worth counting the decimals), but even though Soul Calibur is arguably iconic as a series, I can't really imagine the incentives to choose her specifically. I mean, I don't really see how she would represent Soul Calibur over the rest of the cast...

Talim want: 0%
And I have no reason to want her either.

-----

Agumon chances: 0.14%
Well, I suppose Digimon was trying to rival Pokémon at its time, but didn't really stand the test of time as an influent series today... at the point where Namco is developing a Pokémon game, lol. Maybe some minor representation through a Mii costume or something, but not a playable character.

Agumon want: 0%
Fun fact, the only connection I have with Digimon is through the anime. Considering I have absolutely no connection to Digimon games despite being aware of their existence much later than the anime, putting Agumon in Smash would feel out of place from my point of view. And overall I have absolutely no desire for Digimon representation in Smash.

-----

Well, that was (admittedly) a boring day for me... sorry for whoever nominated these.


Rayman prediction: 15.69%
Hopefully his chances will decrease by a considerable margin. Almost 30% and being featured in the top 10 most likely characters is way too high for him imo.

Nominating:
Concept: two or more DLC characters from the same series x5

 

[Deleted member]

All characters today i'm abstaining from


Predictions
Rayman 10.23

Nominating Galacta Knight x5

 

[Sir Gengar de Èctoplasma]

Talim
Chance and Want: Double Zeroes

Agumon
Chance: 3%
Want: 80%

Rayman prediction: 22%

Nominations:
Serperior 2x
Galacta Knight 3x

Talim
Chance: 85%

So much bias it hurts.

 

[YoshiandToad]

So much bias it hurts.

Let's break that down.

Is Soul Calibur a first party?
No. Obviously not. Owned by Namco, but they have had a hand in creating this Smash.

Is Soul Calibur a big deal?
Well actually; yes! Yes it's a pretty big Namco game. It is however their second most successful fighting game series after Tekken. Though that is after Tekken.

Has Soul Calibur got a character that's as big a deal as Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man and Ryu?
No. Nightmare and Ivy may be considered iconic for various reasons, but they're not of the same legendary status that those four are at.

Has Soul Calibur got strong ties to Nintendo?
No. In fact the one game it did release on a Nintendo console was simultaneously released on PS2 AND Xbox, before abandoning Nintendo altogether and releasing subsequent releases on the two rival consoles.

Is Talim popular?
Yes; she is amongst the SC fandom...but that wasn't enough to stop her getting cut alongside other favourites like Taki in SCV.

Is Talim the most likely Soul Calibur character?
Doubtful. Whilst popular, she's a bit like Pokemon's Hawlucha; popular in the fanbase, but not pushed forward by the company as a series mascot.

---------

Now, obviously this is all opinion, but 85% for chance confuses me.

Is the 85% an 85% chance of Talim being picked from the Soul Calibur series meaning there's a 100% chance of a Soul Calibur character, or a 85% chance of a Soul Calibur character appearing with Talim being the 100% obvious character to choose from all the characters?

Either way it's a ridiculously overinflated chance score. I'd only give K. Rool or Wolf a score that ridiculously high and that's due to the insane ballot popularity of the former, and the veteran status and popularity of the latter making him a relatively easy inclusion.

By all means; put what you want for 'Want'(that's the point), put what you want for a nomination(also the point), but for goodness sake chance try to stay balanced for chance, guys.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

All Zeroes.

Rayman: 27%

Lana x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Talim AND Agumon
Chance and Want for BOTH:

The "F" stands for "Four" for this situation, so 4 Zeroes
For Talim, she is an unimportant character in the Soul Calibur franchise. She debuted in the only Soul Calibur released on a Nintendo console and was cut from 5. I know that someone is seen as the most popular or important to the main story in the SC games, but she shouldn't get in before them. Putting Talim in would be like putting in Crimson Viper before Ryu; popular in her own right, but she shouldn't get in before the main character. As for want, I didn't know this character existed until she started gaining nominations. If she got in, it would be a waste of a spot and I know there are a lot of Namco characters to choose from before going to the bottom of the barrel.
For Agumon, there is no ballot support. For want, I don't have any connection with Digimon.

Rayman Prediction: 17.45%
This should be interesting.

Nominations: Guile's Theme 5x

 

[Kenith]

Talim:
Chance: 0.01%.
Want: 5%.

This is one of the last Namco characters they would ever choose for Smash Bros. She debuted in the only Soulcalibur game on Nintendo platforms (which was also on every other platform), true, however, so did Raphael, who is way more prominent in the story, and survived the transition from Soulcalibur IV to V, unlike Talim.
Then there's Nightmare, who is basically the series mascot (even being in the logo for Project Soul), as well as the main antagonist (and the corrupted protagonist in SC and SC2).
Not to mention Mitsurugi and Taki, in addition to being series staples have been in multiple series crossovers to represent Soulcalibur.
Talim being at the top of an official character for Soulcalibur shouldn't be justification for her in Smash; the only reason she was so voted for is because people wanted her back in Soulcalibur.
With all of the things against her, I can't see Talim even being chosen.

And frankly, I wouldn't like it very much. I much prefer Nightmare as the Soulcalibur character, if there was ever a chance of getting one anyways.

Agumon:
Chance: 3%.
Want: Abstain.

---
Nominations: Midna x3, Two DLC characters from one series x2

 

[Smasher 101]

Talim: DOUBLE ZEROES

Yeah, sorry, this isn't happening. Even in the very unlikely event that Soul gets a playable character, it wouldn't be Talim. I don't think she's a good choice to represent the series, either.

Agumon's chances: 0.5%

A Digimon's really unlikely too. At least Agumon is the most likely one, though.

Want: 50%

I actually wouldn't mind this. I like Agumon and think he could be a fun character. That said, there are better third party choices out there, such as, say...

Rayman prediction: 20.12%

Nominations: Fossil Fighter x5

 

[Arc_Thunder]

thought I would join in on this thread

Talim:
Chance:2% it's possible i geuss? I can't see it happening though.
want:0%

Agumon:
chance:0%
want:0%

Nomination: MonsterHunter x5

 

[PokéMurio]

Talim
Chance 0%
Want 0%

Agumon
Chance 1%
Want 100%

I'm hardcore Digimon fan and Agumon basically already have moveset (Digimon Rumble Arena/2) for Smash Bros. I actually even voted Agumon in Ballot. Still, I think Digimon characters are not getting in Smash anytime soon.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Agumon's Chance: 0%
I'm not sure if virtual pets count as video games, so that may disqualify him. Also, Digimon's pretty much fallen of the face of the earth in popularity, so no ballot support either.

Agumon's Want: 0%
Never cared about Digimon and with transformations omitted from the game, so no evolution gimmick, I don't see him being anything that already isn't covered by Charizard or Bowser.

----------

Talim's Chance: 1%
One fighting character in a game of many, she isn't the face of her series like Ryu. If Soul Calibur gets a character, I'd more expect Nightmare, Cervantes, Ivy, Mitsurugi or Yoshimitsu. Either way, SC is getting pretty much zero support so I don't see her or any of them making it.

Talim's Want: 0%
It'd take something really unique to make me interested in yet another sword user, and Talim just doesn't have it.

{edit}

Talim's Revised Want: 10%
Ok, so I stand corrected about the sword thing. That definitely helps her appeal some. I'm still mostly indifferent toward her, but at least she isn't a sword user.

 

[Kenith]

Talim's Chance: 0%
It'd take something really unique to make me interested in yet another sword user, and Talim just doesn't have it.

Talim doesn't use swords.

She uses tonfas.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Talim doesn't use swords.

She uses tonfas.

Since I was incorrect, I revised my post, thanks.

 

[WiiDude83]

As for talim, as much as I love her character...I just don't see it happening as Namco has just forgot about her. And I honestly don't think we're getting any other fighting game characters other than ryu

 

[Laniv]

Talim:

Chance and Want: 0%
We'd sooner get Yoshimitsu.

Agumon:

Chance: 0.5%
Relatively speaking, Agumon has a high chance compared to the other characters from his game.

Want: 0%
Nah.

Predictions for Rayman: 59% Chance, 87% Want

Nominate Daisy rerate x 5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Talim:
Chance: 0%
Want:ABSTAINED

Nope.

Agumon:

Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
But only because of the Agumon vs Pikachu potential.

Prediction:

Rayman: 41.3%

Nominations:

Smash 4 NX Port x3
Wolf Rerate x2

 

[Deleted member]

@JackerX wins for the Kirby stage.

Barely noticed i actually won bonus nominations. Extra 5 towards Galacta Knight

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Talim and Agumon
Quadruple 0 Magnums

Rayman Prediction: 35%

Nominations:
Bandana Dee x5

 

[Scamper52596]

Talim
Chance: 0.3%
Abstain from explanation. I'll give Talim from Soul Calibur a small rating of 0.3%.
I'm not in the mood today...

Want: 0.2%
Abstain from explanation


Agumon
Chance: 0.4%
Abstain from explanation. I'll give the rex-like Digimon a small score of 0.4%.
I'm still not in the mood...

Want: 0.3%
Abstain from explanation.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Talim
Chance- 0.35%
To say she was "cut" from SC5 is pretty unfair, considering just how many of the characters, many of whom were important, didn't return. Let's just ignore that game ever happened (along with SC4, for that matter).
She is a pretty popular character from a big franchise (at least at one point) whose company has done work on the game, so it's not impossible. But I won't call it likely. SC likely won't have a rep, and it probably wouldn't even be Talim.
Want- 85%
She doesn't deserve to be in this game. She's a third party. There's a lot of things that should be wrong.
The truth, though, is that Talim is one of my sister's favorite video game characters. She'd be super hyped if Talim was in Smash, so I can't help but be, too. Talim's actually a cool character, and would have a new move set. So there.

Agumon
Chance- 0.3%
Want- 10%
Like many others, just because Pokemon vs. Digimon.
Unlike seemingly everyone else, I actually know who Talim is pretty well, but I had forgotten Agumon's name…

Rayman Predictions- 19%
Nominations:
Porky x5

 

[[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer]]

Talim

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Agumon

Chance: 0%

Want: 0%

Predictions: Gardevoir 2%

Predictions: Rayman 23%

Nominations: Pious X10.

 

[Kenith]

Talim
Chance- 0.35%
To say she was "cut" from SC5 is pretty unfair, considering just how many of the characters, many of whom were important, didn't return. Let's just ignore that game ever happened (along with SC4, for that matter).

...
I loved SC4...

 

[CometX-ing]

Gonna be upfront and say I have no idea who this Talim is and only have seen pictures, but of course I'm not to well versed in SoulCalibur. Agumon on the other hand I do know.

Talim: 0%
like I said I know nothing of this character but I honestly doubt SoulCalibur of any series on Namco's own roster would get a rep. I'm more inclined to say it would be Tekken if anything to get a rep because other than Pac-man I feel like that's its most well known series, much to my dismay as a Klonoa supporter.

Also, Pokken Tournament.

Want:0%

I doubt I need to say

Agumon: Lets just say 0.3

I doubt many people think of Digimon nowadays, unless you watch the Nick show, but who watches Nick.

Want: 1%

If only to see Pocket Monsters vs Digital Monsters.


Nomination: Klonoa cause why not.

 

[ryuu seika]

Oh, and you know how Sakurai is against adding non-video game characters? Well, Digimon's video games have always taken a back seat to the anime and various merchandise. Agumon might not even qualify at all!

Bandai Namco owns him, but he didn't originate from a video game, therefore he is ineligible.

Unlike say, Goku, Agumon originated from a Tamigotchi clone. Given that Mr. Game & Watch is considered a video game character, Agumon should be too. His origins are in gaming at the very least.

As main digimon of 2 distinct seasons and many of the video game and manga stories, Agumon is by far the most likely character from the series.His only rivals are Shoutmon and Guilmon, one being current and the other being the main character of season 3, arguably the best season, and thus one of the most popular digimon ever. I would add Patamon to that list as he is probably the second most repeatedly important digimon in the show but Patamon was inexplicably left out of the latest Rumble game, implying the makers don't see his worth.

Agumon Chances: 1% - Possible but highly unlikely.
Aguman Want: 50% - Not Guilmon or Patamon but still enough to warrant my vote.

This is one of the last Namco characters they would ever choose for Smash Bros. She debuted in the only Soulcalibur game on Nintendo platforms (which was also on every other platform), true, however, so did Raphael, who is way more prominent in the story, and survived the transition from Soulcalibur IV to V, unlike Talim.
Then there's Nightmare, who is basically the series mascot (even being in the logo for Project Soul), as well as the main antagonist (and the corrupted protagonist in SC and SC2).
Not to mention Mitsurugi and Taki, in addition to being series staples have been in multiple series crossovers to represent Soulcalibur.
Talim being at the top of an official character for Soulcalibur shouldn't be justification for her in Smash; the only reason she was so voted for is because people wanted her back in Soulcalibur.
With all of the things against her, I can't see Talim even being chosen.

And frankly, I wouldn't like it very much. I much prefer Nightmare as the Soulcalibur character, if there was ever a chance of getting one anyways.

Technically Soul Calibur Legends exists, meaning that there are two Soul Calibur games for Nintendo, one of which is even exclusive. That game, however, was recieved apallingly by fans and for decent reason. It also does not feature Talim, potentially making it another strike to her chances.

Talim is my favourite in the series but if an SC character gets in it will be either a Seigfried/Nightmare fusion (see SC2) or Yoshimitsu.

Talim Chance: 0% - Her series will not get 3+ characters and their are other priorities within it.
Talim Want: 16% - I don't see her bringing anything too amazing to Smash, even if I like her, and don't love her or her series enough to be swayed.

 

[Kenith]

Technically Soul Calibur Legends exists, meaning that there are two Soul Calibur games for Nintendo, one of which is even exclusive. That game, however, was recieved apallingly by fans and for decent reason. It also does not feature Talim, potentially making it another strike to her chances.

I know that Soulcalibur Legends exists. I own it.
I neglected to mention it for a reason.

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Been busy all day and have something to do for the night, so I'll sum up these characters in one image.

Before anyone grabs their torch and pitchforks, allow me to explain. In Agumon's case, he has many problems that range from lack of requests to the series's dying popularity in the West. I love Digimon and Agumon's my personal favorite, but I seriously don't see Namco going out of their way to promote him again.

As for Talim, this one's going to be a bit hard to say. There are plenty of third parties I'd prefer over her and there are are a few plot relevant characters (Nightmare, Seigfried, Sophitia, Mistrurugi, Taki, Ivy, and Algol) I feel have a better chance than her. The absence of Soul Calibur V and her less than major importance in the franchise's plot is what truly hurts her chances. Minimal requests is another problem for her and not many Namco fans in general are keen on a second rep happening as DLC any time soon. Like the character, but she has so many odds stacked against her unlike the more major Soul Calibur characters (And even they seem pretty unlikely).

Rayman Prediction: 24%

Nominations: Lana x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Talim
Chance: 0% - Perhaps Namco could get a second rep, but I have an extremely hard time imagining it would come from Soul Calibur. It is completely dwarfed in popularity by Tekken and Tales especially in Japan. Talim is really only popular within the Soul Calibur fanbase, but she's almost completely unknown outside of it. Also Siegfried/Knightmare are far more iconic to the series.
Want: 40%

Agumon
Chance: 0% - Nintendo and Bandai have both pretty much refused to acknowledge the Pokemon-Digimon rivalry. Why would they suddenly start now?
Want: 10%

Nominations: Tag team mode x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[colder_than_ice]

TALIM
PRETTY MUCH JUST DRASON'S CHANCE RATING DIVIDED BY THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO VOTED: 2.80%
WANT: 9.24%

AGUMON
CHANCE: 1.08%
WANT: 15.67%
​

Next up we're rerating Rayman and predicting what score Gardevoir and Serpior will get tomorrow.

 

[LIQUID12A]

HAI FOLKS, YOU WANNA KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON? LET ME TELL YOU THE STORY OF RAAAAAYMAAAAAAAAN!

Chance: 30%

Honestly, the stuff is there for Rayman to appear; he's popular and already has a trophy in the game. Hell, Ubisoft gave them the model. Globox and Barbara are also there. Three trophies for a third party franchise? His issues mainly lie with being a third party, but third party DLC is a thing, so who knows.

Want: 95%

I'd be lying if I said I didn't want Snake first, but I would also be lying if I said I wouldn't want Rayman playable in this game.

Predictions:

Gardevoir and Serperior: 2%

Nominate: Metroid Prime stage x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Rayman Chance:
30%

Nothing has changed much with Rayman's chances really, I say the pros (25%) + trophy appearance (5%) already constitute an easier time to obtain the character, but not much hints have been given to give him a better chance, which is why I'm giving a bit of a lower score. Here are some points that I brought up before:

• With Rayman trophies in the game, Sakurai has easy access to using the characters in the game.
• I don't think the controversy with Ubisoft and Nintendo would really matter for Rayman's case, it's probably really irrelevant to Sakurai's decisions on newcomers.
• His popularity certainly has grown by large margin with the Omni leak and the ballot, that support is probably enough for Sakurai to notice.
• Has a somewhat large iconic status not a large plus by any means, as being from a third-party popular franchise is probably enough to consider the character.
• Popularity within his franchise.
• Has a bit of a close relationship with Nintendo.
• Has a moveset that basically can be transferred from Legends to Smash easily, not a very unique moveset (It's pretty standard for the most part), but he is visually unique in terms of appearance.
• The only minor negative is that he's third-party, and the fact he'll have to go through some many agreements to get the character in the game, to be honest I don't think it's much of a problem anymore, especially with the amount of third-party trophies from other IPs in the game. Agreeing to a third-party deal is not hell to do, some people over-exaggerate that.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[NintenRob]

Rayman
Chance 3%
Want: 1%
Gardevoir 1%
Serperior 0.6%

nominate Baby Mario x5

 

[Deleted member]

Rayman

Chance: 10%

While his series is already represented in the form of a few trophies and I'm sure he has healthy ballot support, there won't be many more DLC characters left. Higher-contending first party candidates such as Isaac and K. Rool might be a higher priority than third party characters, especially ones whose respective patron companies likely aren't on the best of terms with Nintendo.

To Ubisoft's credit, though, at least they're not in Konami's shoes right now.

Want: 75%

Predictions:

Gardevoir - 2.5%

Serperior - 2.5%

Nomination: NX Port x5