Rate their Chances: the DLC Edition. Day: 192: The final day

[Laniv]

Dark Samus:

Chance: 1%
Assist Trophy.

Want: 55%
Well, if we can't have Ridley, she's my next choice.

Predictions for Jibanyan: 10% Chance, 50% Want

Nominate Homecoming Hijinx x 5

 

[Jestar]

Dark Samus:

Chance: 0%

Being an assist trophy pretty much kills its chances.

Want: 98%

Was a great boss in Prime 2 & 3 and has a really awesome theme. Would definitely use Dark Samus if it ever made it in.

 

[Fire_Voyager]

Dark Samus not third samus
Chances: 1% being a NPC is harmful
Want: 30% maybe in the next one.

Youkai Watch's Pikachu Jibanyan
Pred: 10% for the "who?"

Noms:
Bub/Bob x5

 

[Deleted member]

How did... Young Link beat Pichu...?
That day was absolute madness. Too many damn debates were happening all over the place. If this happens, then bring it to the PMs! If this happens again, then I will have the moderators take action to end it and I don't want to do that.

The Directory has been updated.

Dark Samus
Chance: 0%
Unless I see an AT become playable, I think she has no chance because she is an AT.

Want: 30%
60% if she is unique, 0% if she is a clone.

Jibanyan Prediction: 2.53%
I think this will require some explanation.
Jibanyan is a part of a series called Yo-Kai Watch, created by Level-5, the same people who make the Professor Layton games and Ni no Kuni. It has a manga and several games, mostly on the 3DS. This character in particular is one of the main characters and his name came up in PushDustin's Japanese poll... though his percentage was rather minor. The series hasn't reached to America yet as well.
Might as well save the people trouble of researching like I did.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[Burruni]

How did... Young Link beat Pichu...?
That day was absolute madness. Too many damn debates were happening all over the place. If this happens, then bring it to the PMs! If this happens again, then I will have the moderators take action to end it and I don't want to do that.

The Directory has been updated.

Dark Samus
Chance: 0%
Unless I see an AT become playable, I think she has no chance because she is an AT.

Want: 30%
60% if she is unique, 0% if she is a clone.

Jibanyan Prediction: 2.53%
I think this will require some explanation.
Jibanyan is a part of a series called Yo-Kai Watch, created by Level-5, the same people who make the Professor Layton games and Ni no Kuni. It has a manga and several games, mostly on the 3DS. This character in particular is one of the main characters and his name came up in PushDustin's Japanese poll... though his percentage was rather minor. The series hasn't reached to America yet as well.
Might as well save the people trouble of researching like I did.

Nominations: Owain 5x

Young Link had a couple odd outliers to the norm. One particular was 95% chance and 100% want. It's just a thing that we all are gonna come across from time to time with heated characters.

 

[Smasher 101]

Dark Samus' chances: 0.5%

Sticking with my belief that NPCs such as assists won't become playable, at least not this time. Chances are Sakurai and co. had their reasons for making them assists and whatnot, and will likely look towards other options for DLC. The fact that Samus has a Dark Samus palette swap probably doesn't help either.

Want: 100%

If we can't have Ridley, this would be by FAR the next best choice for a new Metroid character, in my opinion. Too bad one doesn't seem to be meant to be for this game, I think she has the potential to be a really good fighter.

Jibanyan prediction: 7.59%

Don't see it preforming extremely well.

Nominations: Karate Joe x5

 

[Kalimdori]

Oh yay, a character I care enough about to rate!

Dark Samus Chance: 2%

Unlike nearly everybody here, I don't put any stock in the baseless argument that AT's can't be made playable. Unfortunately, Dark Samus has almost nothing in her/his.... its? Favor.

For one thing, she only appeared in two Metroid games, and was most likely killed for good in the last one she appeared in. So unless we get a Metroid Prime 4 in which Dark Samus returns, there's no point in adding her in for promotional purposes, and that's the only way I can really see her being added.

Because there is almost no fan demand for her. I gave Ridley a 5%, I honestly believe that he's still the most likely Metroid rep (Or if you'd rather, that we won't get a Metroid rep). Ridley's got high fan demand and high importance to the Metroid series, it would make sense to add him in as a character. Adding in Dark Samus over him would be like Magolor getting in before King Dedede, or Lord Frederick making it in before K. Rool. Not even remotely as popular or important, doesn't make any sense.

If Dark Samus was going to be a character, they would have made her one in Brawl, that's when it would have made the most sense to add her. But ZSS out-prioritized her (Which was stupid) and her popularity has only faded since.

Only way can see her being added is if A) A new Metroid game is made that features her in a major role, or B) Sakurai is truly adamant keeping Ridley out of the roster, but is also really wanting to add a Metroid representative (Which, based on the current roster, I doubt)

Want: 25%

Ridley first

 

[Zerp]

Spoiler

Dark Samus
Chance: 2% Assist trophy? Check. Metroid Character? Check. Another Samus? (Sorta) Check. Alt costume? Check.
Want: 30% Dark Samus would be pretty cool, I just don't have any interest in her at all. But, Metroid DOES need another rep, so that bumps her want up, since I believe everyone should be represented fairly.

Nominations: 3x Dark Matter 2x Adeleine
Predictions: Poké-no? Digi-No? Yugi-Noooo? Jibanyan Prediction: 5% Third parties tend to not be seen as highly likely plus it's kinda sorta competition for Pokémon, which might affect some ratings.

 

[Scamper52596]

Dark Samus
Chance: 1.2%
She's already an Assist Trophy along with an alternate costume. I don't really think there's much else for me to say. I'll give the Phazon version of Samus a score of 1.2%.
Moving on...

Want: 30%
The Metroid Prime games are cool, so it would be neat to see a representative from those titles.

Prediction - Jibanyan: 2.1%

Nominations:
x3 !Rerate: Inklings
x2 Tails the Fox

 

[4theRECORD]

Damus (Metroid)

Chance:1%
Want:10%

Jibanyan predictions:18%

nomination: Slime (Dragon Quest) x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Dark Samus
Chance: 0%
Assist Trophy. 'Nuff said.

Want: 0%
Don't give two squats about Metroid.

Nominations:
Inkling x5

 

[Drason]

Dark Samus:
Chance:0%
She might've had a chance if she was JUST a assist trophy, but she is also a skin for Samus
Want: 20%
Nominations:
TalimX5(SoulCalibur)

 

[smileMasky]

Dark Samus
chance :0.01%
I don't want to seem like a **** but really guys? as for this instalment of smash no plain and simple. if It was not for her AT status she would have had greater chances. Also don't use the excuse of a item disable, thats a desperation attempt. Only exception to the NPC rule is only background entities. Sorry but this is how I see it and I do not think they are going to change AT in to playables of this current version.

Want: 10%
Samus times 3? >_> i never play as the 2 we have now not to say she is a bad character but I'm not so fond of range heavy characters at the current moment.

Nomination
Starman Pro wrestling x2
Django x2
3rd party 2nds x1

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

I'll abstain for Dark Samus today. I don't have a strong connection to the character, and if there was a Metroid character I'd choose, it'd be Ridley.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Dark Samus
Chance: 1% - I don't think having AT status is too much of a hindrance, but if Ridley can't get in then what chance does she have. It also doesn't' help that the Metroid content we've had so far is almost entirely from Other M.
Want: 30% - I love her design, and that's about it.

Jibanyan prediction: 4%

Nominations: Aqua x5

DAY OVER
PLEASE WAIT WHILE I CALCULATE THE RESULTS​

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Dark Samus

Chance: 2%

She's already an Assist Trophy and has that alternate color based on her older appearance for Samus. Unless we know that St's will get that promotion, he chances range from slim to none sadly. At least she has popularity, but far less ballot support than the infamous Ridley (Who is now unlikely thanks to Sakurai's implications on his portrayal and size issues). Prime is also long gone as long as Nintendo thinks about telling Retro to make a new entry in there series.

Want: 65%

Metroid needs more reps, Prime was my childhood, Dark Samus was up there with Ridley in terms of villainy, and she has the power of Phazon. You do the math.

Prediction - Jibanyan: 15%

Nominations: Takamaru x5 #SlashtheVote

 

[Arcanir]

Dark Samus
Chances: 1%
I gave Ridley a low score before, and many of his negative points carry over to her along with a couple of her own. Like Ridley, she already has a pre-determined role in the game, and while we don't know for sure if this can be mitigated, it doesn't bode well for her on the outset as she could very well be stuck in that role. What makes matters worse for her is that unlike Ridley, she has very little popularity with the ballot and thus can't even claim that it could win her favor and give her the push needed to get out of that role. So as things stand now, it looks like the dark doppelganger may have to sit another chance of becoming playable out.

Want: 40%
I did like her in the Prime subseries, but she's not at the top of my list for a wanted character.

 

[colder_than_ice]

DARK SAMUS
CHANCE: 3.01%
WANT: 39.26%​

That awkward moment when your "want" rating is over 13 times higher than your "chance" rating. Next up we're rating Jibanyan of Yokai Watch and predicting what score Chibi-Robo will get tomorrow.

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Chance: 0%
She's an assist trophy... nuff said.

Want: 35%

Nominations: Viridi x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Before you start reading the rating, be sure to watch this first:

.....

You're welcome, now it's stuck in your head.

Jibanyan Chance: 20%

​

Jibanyan is the icon of the extremely popular franchise in Japan from Level-5. In the games, the gameplay revolves around searching around Sakura New Town for Yo-kai, Yo-kai are supernatural spirits who roam around the town haunting and causing mischief to people, one player can befriend (or catch to put it in Pokemon terms) one of these by giving them good they like before beginning the battle and defeating them (basically similar to Pokemon to a large extent). Jibanyan is one of these kinds of creatures found in-game, a fire-attribute Yo-kai and the most iconic out of all of them. The actual battle gameplay involves a rotating spinner that can be used to switch Yokai, clear up status effects, or charge up a Yo-kai's special abilities to win at battle.

Since the first game's debuted, it has become a massive phenomenon in Japan with exploding with manga, anime, and merchandise across every street of Japan, selling in at over 7 million copies of the games total, as much of a fast pace as Pokemon. With it's success and upcoming release in the West, he's already an immediate qualifier for Sakurai to advertise the game in West and increase Yo-kai Watch exposure. He's already being highly requested in Japan too, so he's definitely under Sakurai's radar right now if he didn't plan him pre-ballot.
_____________________________________________

Here's a potential special moves for Jibanyan for those who aren't convinced, created by @ BandanaWaddleDee :

B: Komanyachi (the wiki doesn't really explain what the animations for his moves are, so I can't be sure)

Side B: Possession (He possesses an opponent near him and puts a paralysis charm on them, which paralyzes them for a bit, that's what the wiki says his possession does)

Up B: Hyakuretsunikukyu (does a barrage of flurry punches with his paws, which can also be used to recover

Down B: Nyoe (works like Diddy Kong's peanut popgun. charges up his attack and hits anyone around him, but if he charges up too much, he hurts himself comedicly)

Final Smash: Robonyan (switches out with his future self, which is not really bigger, but he's stronger, and faster too. Can fire rocket punches, use his jetpack, transform into a car, etc)
_____________________________________________

If you need more proof that Yokai Watch is extremely popular, then check out this:

This of itself describes the amount of success shown Yokai Watch has gotten, it's like what happened when Pokemon boomed like crazy in Japan when the games were released.

If you want a quick summary of Yokai Watch from someone else, mai boy Etika has you covered:

_____________________________________________
Arguments:

But, but! His game hasn't been released in other regions yet! That means he's ineligible right?
Right now, the situation could change after the game releases in 2016 in America and Europe. Given the staggering popularity of the franchise right now, there is the potential good chance Smash may aid the Yokai Watch franchise with a newcomer just like with Marth and Roy when they were added in Melee when their franchise was very popular. Given with booming Pokemon-like success with Yokai Watch in Japan, Sakurai may give Jibanyan a shot at being playable even the game hasn't been localized yet.

HE'S NOT AS SUPER ICONIC AS RYU, MARIO, MEGAMAN, SONIC, AND PAC-MAN! He can't be in Smash ever.
Yet, there is no specific criteria rules other than the interview in Famitsu in October and his "special case" criteria. We don't know if Sakurai will just strictly add just super famous icons as DLC, for all we know, he could just change his mind even though Sakurai said things against certain characters like "no fighting game characters aloud" pre-Smash 4. If the rules can be broken for fighting game characters, the unconfirmed rules can be potentially broken for 3rd parties too.
_____________________________________________

Jibanyan Want:
85%
I've became very invested in the Yokai Watch anime as of recent, and I have watched a whole load of to understand why Yo-kai Watch is such a phenomenon in Japan. It has a lot of very inventive ideas and characters, the idea of Yo-kai creatures really warm up to you pretty easily, and it gets pretty addicting as more episodes come by (P.S. the protagonist also collects lots of different Yokai, including legendary ones, unlike Ash.

I'm sure the appeal is probably the same with the games too. I really want to see Jibanyan in, Jibanyan vs. Pikachu is probably the biggest rivalry I want to see right now. Trust me when I say it will become a phenomenon in other countries too (quite possibly outnumbering Pokemon too), I can guarantee that many of you are going to be fans of it once it releases in 2016.

Nominations:
x5 Viridi

If you're interested, feel free to take a look at the support thread if you're interested in learning more about the franchise.

 

[NintenRob]

Jibanyan

Chance: 0%
I don't care if it is popular or Nintendo exclusive, third party + Japan exclusive = not happening in my book. And DLC? I already don't expect too many DLC newcomers and this guy hasn't even been released overseas yet.

Want: 0%
DLC should only be used for veterans, fan favourite Nintendo characters and ICONIC third party, This creature is none of the above.

Nominate R.O.B. eye bug fix x5 (Almost there)

prediction: Chibi Robo 13%

 

[Deleted member]

Jibanyan

Chance: 9.5%

Level-5's Yokai Watch franchise has always been popular in Japan, but only recently has the first entry in the series been confirmed for an international release.

Jibanyan from Yokai Watch is a Japanese third party character with a purely Japanese, but large and vocal support base, and Sakurai is a citizen of Japan himself. Compare that cat to someone like the previously rated Spyro (I'm just using the first example that came to mind for the sake of comparsion), who is a western third party character with a minuscule western support base and a severe lack of Japanese popularity. I'll let you guess which of these two candidates automatically has more going for him.

Want: Abstain

I don't have an opinion on this cat.

Prediction: Chibi Robo - 5%

Nomination: Zael x5

 

[Aetheri]

People actually thought that Samus's alt was a factor against Dark Samus...even though it was just a colour swap...Guess people will use the same argument against Waluigi right?

Anyways...

----

PiCATchu...

Jibanyan

Chance: 8%
He is apparently the new pikachu in Japan and a new craze amoung the Japanese crowd...Thing is, sure Yokai Watch may be new competition for Pokemon...but it's still not Pokemon, and it is likely that both Level-5 and Nintendo know this...Plus Level-5 is on good terms with Nintendo and is almost considered second party even though it still isn't...With that said Jibanyan (and Yokai Watch in general) hasn't struck outside of Japan (yet) and I think this does play a factor...Here's the thing, the majority of the Smash fanbase is international, sure introducing Jibanyan to the international; crowd is a good way to get Yokai-Watch international exposure, but doing through DLC, though PAID DLC may not be the best decision...If he's being added to the base roster there's minimal risk whether or not it'll sell...

Let's also not forget that he's a non-iconic third party character, if he was nintendo property then his chances would no doubtedly go way up (probably by 50-60% or so) but as a third party character that simply does not compare to the likes of Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Snake, and Ryu...and as one that may be viewed as a 'pokemon rip-off' by some...yeah this may not be happening...Professor Layton is a more popular and more recognized character through the majority of the smash fanbase and not just a Japan exclusive, who will most likely be a better choice, but Jibanyan may have to wait a bit before he can break into the Smash scene...Next game, he has a slightly better chance but for DLC, not likely...

----

Want: 5%
I'm quite content with Pokemon as it is, and I spend too much money on that product to want to get into what is the 'new pokemon' craze...That said, I don't know too much about it (since it hasn't been released outside of Japan yet) and his moveset may be fairly decent and fun to play with...being what appears to be a fire cat of some kind...but he hasn't really caught my interest so far...

----

Prediction: 24.5%
Chibi Robo
People are gonna bring up the amiibo and the new side scrolling game and stuff...though I don't think his chances are astronomically low, he doesn't have the support that most other characters have...

----

Nominations:
Concept: DLC Adventure Mode x3
Concept: Alpha Stages x1
Concept: 7+ DLC Characters x1

 

[Smasher 101]

[Obnoxshush/Dasshizer] and @M.P. get extra nominations today; they were a mere hundredth of a percent off Dark Samus' score.

 

[Deleted member]

The Directory has been updated.

Jibanyan
Chance: 0%
In terms of third party characters, Sakurai said that they are characters that are "special cases" that are in "leagues of their own." This is vital information because Jibanyan isn't really considered legendary. Popular yes... but only in Japan. But legendary? That is a bit more farfetched.
I believe if Nintendo, or Sakurai, went up to Level-5 to ask for a character, they would most likely ask for Professor Layton; Layton is popular, iconic, and kinda requested... Nintendo would make a lot of profit off of him. Then we have Jibanyan, who is obscure outside of Japan and wouldn't sell as much; this is very, very risky to do from a sales standpoint.
He doesn't really have the superstar status that Mario, Sonic, Mega Man, or Pac-Man have.

HE'S NOT AS SUPER ICONIC AS RYU, MARIO, MEGAMAN, SONIC, AND PAC-MAN! He can't be in Smash ever.
Yet, there is no specific criteria rules other than the interview in Famitsu in October and his "special case" criteria. We don't know if Sakurai will just strictly add just super famous icons as DLC, for all we know, he could just change his mind even though Sakurai said things against certain characters like "no fighting game characters aloud" pre-Smash 4. If the rules can be broken for fighting game characters, the unconfirmed rules can be potentially broken for 3rd parties too.

While this is true, it is important to put icons in as DLC as they will sell the most. Putting in characters like Mega Man, Sonic, and Pac-Man from the beginning will have Nintendo gain sales because these characters are extremely popular in the media. Ryu is a fighting game icon; people will recognize him from the tremendously popular Street Fighter series and will buy him as a result.
Then we have Jibanyan, who is popular in Japan and is a complete unknown elsewhere. While rules can break, breaking this rule would be a massive risk for Nintendo, especially if he gets in over Professor Layton.
Also, Sakurai was pretty vague about fighting game characters before. I think he told people to not get their hopes up about them because he liked creating characters that don't come from them; it gives him creative liberties. Honestly, Ryu is a plus for Nintendo because of his popularity and he already has a moveset made for him... he'll be relatively easy to create and still be profitable.

Want: 0%
I didn't know about this guy until I heard his name from PushDustin's poll and I didn't do research on him until today.
I won't deny that he would be unique, but I don't have a connection with him and I rather have other characters.

Chibi-Robo Prediction: 18.03%
I'll give him some benefit of the doubt.

Nominations: Owain 5x

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Jibanyan

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

So not too many differences between Jibanyan and Quote...​

Blah blah who is that...blah blah not groundbreaking...blah blah same arguments as before
I really feel we're rehashing the same things over and over again. So let me instead talk about what Quote Jibanyan has over the others.
I feel that Quote Jibanyan is very similar to Shantae - both are indie third-party characters who have a heavy history of exclusivity with Nintendo...The big difference between the two is that Shantae is basically unknown in the east, and Quote Jibanyan has a Japanese following. And that gives him the advantage in a race like this. Remember, Nintendo is Japanese, and will naturally favor Japanese characters. I don't know how well requested he is, but remember that Sm4sh is very sensitive to the Japanese fanbase.
But really, same problems as Shantae. And Shovel Knight. And Banjo.

Like I've said, I should know who the character is. I always want to go to the characters page on X wiki, just to look at them, but I should be able to see the character and recognize them from the beginning. Blah blah, rehash all arguments from before.
​

True, SSB has (once) added a character who was a Japanese exclusive, but DLC is a wild card. Even if it's got a huge following in Japan, it really isn't popular enough in the US/EUR/AUS to get a foothold. And despite what Sakurai wants to believe, the Japanese fanbase is relatively small, so it may not be worth the time and money needed to make a character which only one region will buy - if they even want it.

And besides, this is the same company as Prof. Layton, who I think is a bit more requested...
​

Chibi-Robo: 17.9%
Nomination: New Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5

 

[JBRPG]

Jibanyan:

Chance: 15%

Want: 5%

Prediction:

Chibi Robo: 13%

Nomination: Medusa x 5

 

[BKupa666]

Jibanyan:

Chance - 0.5%
If Takamaru got shot down for "not being known overseas" despite actually having pockets of fans, what does that say about this guy? And outside the main roster as DLC to boot?

Want - 0%

Chibi-Robo Prediction - 17.5%

Nominate Boss Battles Mode x5

 

[Chandeelure]

-Jibanyan:
Chances: 5%
Want: 10%

-Nominations:
New Kirby stage from newer Kirby games X5

 

[Deleted member]

JibanHOO?

Chances : 10%

+Cute fella
+If Layton gets in somehow, this guy might be next seeing as how third parties have a opportunity to get a 2nd fighter in (Ryu)
-I only heard of Jibanyan recently, thanks to the fact this is a JP character.
-(random player) = WOW who is dis?!

Want : 17%
Wouldn't mind, in all honesty. Maybe a little spook, but thats it.

Chibi Robo Prediction - 19.0
New game is coming out for this character soon enough, so i do actually would like to see what are the opinions now...

NOMINATIONS!
Black Shadow (F-Zero) X3
Rival Battles with Cutscenes x1
Jin Kazama ( Tekken ) X1 ( Yes this character has been on a Nintendo platform! )

 

[Burruni]

Jibanyan is Fossil Fighters but being 3rd Party and not being an established series at the cost of more popularity. That aid.

Chance: 5%

Want: 40%

 

[smileMasky]

Jibanyan
chance 5%
I really don't know what to say about this guy I usually am one to something out over seas butt this did not get my attention. Did we get this game here am I missing something? I have done a little research and from the looks of it. the game looks ok... But It's really popular in japan. I don't think this guy will come on to the DLC train but he did appear in Nintendo consoles.

Want 1%
Umm I really don't know about this character no attachment now also after looking at game play. :/ sorry YW fans.

Nomination
Starman x 2
Django x 2
3rd party 2nds x1

Chibi robo predictions
42.7%
new game relevance but there is a high unstable rate

 

[Double0Groove]

Thankyou @BluePikmin11 for that info, would've been a pain to research.

Jibanyan

Chance: 30%
Being extremely popular and highly requested in Japan doesn't hurt his chances.

Want: 75%

*Hums to the song*
... Please don't judge me... (ತ ൧͑ ತ)

Prediction: Chibi-Robo:
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

Nomination: Sora x5

 

[Roaring Salsa]

Jibanyan

Chance: 10%
From what I've read, the series is largely associated with Nintendo and has a large following in Japan, but it's still a third party and I feel Professor Layton appeals more worldwide if we're searching for a Level-5 candidate.

Want: Abstain
I've investigated about the series and what Jibanyan is capable of, but I'm still unsure of my want rating due to no knowledge of the series prior to this week.

Nominations
Takamaru x5

 

[Troykv]

Jibanyan:

Chance: 5%

It's a third party.... a very popular one, but still a Japan-Only Franchise

Want: 50%

I don't care about this guy.

Predictions: Chibi-Robo

Chance: 26%
Want: 43%

Nominations:

Micaiah x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Jibanyan
Chance- 8.6%
Actually a higher score than I expected to give.
Not released outside of Japan yet… but Lucas
Not known overseas… but if the support is strong in Japan, the team will know.
Not first or second party… but has tight Nintendo exclusivity.

Not to say that he's likely, but he has more of a case then some of the other characters we've rated.

Want- 32%
Again, actually a higher score than I expected to give.
Not a huge guy on nonionic 3rd parties… but he does have tight Nintendo connections (from what I can, completely Nintendo, something Shantae can't match… correct me if I'm wrong?) and looks somewhat interesting.

Chibi Robo Predictions- 25%
Nominations:
Crono x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Jibanyan

Chance - 0.01% - I have no faith in any third party being put in, especially not one that has not been released as much internationally yet. He may have taken Japan by storm, but lacking international fame is a big blow to determining how much he will sell internationally. He simply doesn't stand a chance.

Want - 50% - Meh. Interested in Japanese mythology, but Layton would be more appreciated.


Chibi-Robo Prediction - 13.45% - New game gives folks a confidence boost.

Nominations
New Palutena's Guidance Conversations X5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Resident of Japan here. The comments make it obvious that people do not realize the magnitude of this stupid ghost cat's popularity in this country. Jibanyan is more visible than Mario and Pikachu combined right now.

I can literally look outside my window right now and see Yokai Watch merchandise. Kids everywhere have Jibanyan lunch boxes and backpacks to the point they have completely supplanted Pokemon, Sentai, and Magical Girl merchandise that used to make up the variety of series that the kids showed off at school and on the playground. This is the daily landscape that Sakurai sees. Not being released in the west would be a minor point against him at most.

I think what could hurt his chances are general newness and not being first party (though literally every YW game is Nintendo exclusive). I'm not sure what Level 5 thinks of Jibanyan in Smash, but if they pushed for it, I can't see Sakurai turning them down.

Chances: 50%
If it was first party, it would likely have already been put into the game.

Want: 10%

For all that he's everywhere, I'm personally not a fan.

Chibi Robo prediction: 10%

Nomination: Inkling x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

I really feel sorry for those who predicted Dark Samus at 3% and missed the 15 extra noms for just one hundredth of a percent...
(I remember predicting the exact score in the original RTC gave you 15 extra noms... I guess it still apply in this DLC edition right?)

Jibanyan chances: 3.1%
Remember what I said in Rayman's day about him being unlikely because of his lack of popularity in Japan compared to the western audience? Well, Jibanyan is like the reverse of this, except that we have precedent about Smash helping a Japan-exclusive series becoming well liked overseas (Fire Emblem). Yōkai Watch is a craze and cultural phenomenon in Japan, with Jibanyan supposedly rivaling with Pikachu as far as mainstream popularity goes. Not to mention we also have a precedent of a third-party newcomer added through DLC for his merits related to his iconicness despite the initial demand from the Smash audience being nothing special (Ryu if the sound files mean anything).

That said, Jibanyan I think has some non-negligible things going against him. Whereas Nintendo partially owns Pokémon, Yōkai Watch is fully third-party due to being owned by a company Nintendo doesn't own in any way (Level-5) though they admittedly have a good relationship. Getting into Smash Bros. is never an easy thing for any character owned by neither Nintendo or one of their subsidiaries, and can Yōkai Watch's popularity justify Jibanyan's inclusion in Smash? The games for what I believe have not been imported overseas, though Nintendo is planning to do it by publishing the games by themselves similar to how they published the Professor Layton series. Being third-party or not established outside of Japan aren't a deal breaker as proven by characters like Marth and Sonic, but when combined I believe they're multiplying, not adding, their negative effect on Jibanyan's chances. Third-party characters always had been huge deals in Smash Bros. with mainstream appeal, standing-out historical importance and "WOH!" factor, and while Jibanyan may have these in Japan, he absolutely lacks them overseas, as the overall reaction of western fans will mostly be like "Who?" which is the exact contrary of what you want for putting a third-party character in SSB.

Overall I don't see Jibanyan as a likely contender due to lacking the worldwide mainstream appeal which means his inclusion would kind of go against Sakurai's philosophy about third-party characters getting into Smash Bros. The Yōkai Watch games had not been released overseas yet and while it may change in the future, it getting a playable character in Smash Bros. as a way to secure its popularity instead of rewarding the series for what it did for Nintendo is something unprecedented in the history of Super Smash Bros. and something most likely going against Sakurai's current philosophy about third-party characters getting in. But if it's that much of a big deal in Japan at the point it's worth rewarding it by adding Jibanyan as a playable character in Smash Bros. I could see it happening, especially considering Nintendo's excellent relationship with Level-5.

Jibanyan want: 0.2%
Ugh, no thanks. Regardless of how much Yōkai Watch may be a big deal in Japan it really doesn't make me want to see it get playable representation in Smash Bros. Third-party characters are a huge deal in SSB which is about Nintendo characters first and foremost and as such I'd rather see it not wide open to third-parties, and I want them to be added to be rewarded for what they did for Nintendo and not as a way to give them more exposure, the later which I'm fine with first-party characters. Sure, Yōkai Watch may be imported outside of Japan in the near future, but we really don't know if it is going to become that big and influential overseas.

I think the series needs to become more established than it currently is, especially outside of Japan, and prove itself to be able to stand the test of time before being considered Smash material. For a Level-5 character Professor Layton would feel more natural due to being more established worldwide plus an important face of Nintendo's recent handheld system and his own gaming genre. That said I still give more than a flat zero in want as at least I see how Jibanyan in Smash would make some sense.

Chibi-Robo prediction: 18.35%
This character's rating will be interesting. His chances score will probably be higher than what it could have been if rated a week ago.

Nominating:
Concept: Battlefield form stages x4
Playable newcomer: Tetrimino x1

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Jibanyan:
Chance: 20%
I gave Shantae a 10% (or so I should've)
Jibanyan has the popularity in Japan instead of the West. +2
Huge popularity +5
Retail game +5
Only one game -2

Want:
0%
Do not care.

Takamaru x5