Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[smileMasky]

Arms

Chance: 80%
It's a solid IP, and is a very recent one at that. It would be just right to add at least spring man In. Though with the timing of development cycles go I'm not 100% sure about their inclusion on the base roster.

Want: 50%
personal I never played ARMS but I would not mind.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 85%
Again same as ARMS solid IP. This time around they may include them. With a smash run enemy, RH is relevant and has potential.

Want: 60%
I never played RH, BUT I'm very interested in the possibility of time based moves.

Nomination Django x5 (Boktai)

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Chrom was planned at one point (to those who say he was only considered, Sakurai is on record saying he even made a moveset for him, so he was MORE than considered)

There was no "made." Sakurai only thought of a moveset for him. He was considered.

Relevant quotes from here:
Sakurai: Here I give the example of Chrom. When it came time to decide on a character from “Fire Emblem: Awakening”, I had even thought of a moveset for him. However in the long run, he was just in between Marth and Ike, so he wasn’t added.

I played all the way through FE:A and really wanted to include a character from that rich cast in Smash Bros. Naturally, I considered adding Chrom to the roster, but the decision wasn’t easy by any means. At the end of the day, Chrom would just end up being another plain-old sword-wielder like Marth and Ike.

When the man himself only says Chrom was considered, that's what I'll choose to believe.

 

[Opossum]

There was no "made." Sakurai only thought of a moveset for him. He was considered.

Relevant quotes from here:
Sakurai: Here I give the example of Chrom. When it came time to decide on a character from “Fire Emblem: Awakening”, I had even thought of a moveset for him. However in the long run, he was just in between Marth and Ike, so he wasn’t added.

I played all the way through FE:A and really wanted to include a character from that rich cast in Smash Bros. Naturally, I considered adding Chrom to the roster, but the decision wasn’t easy by any means. At the end of the day, Chrom would just end up being another plain-old sword-wielder like Marth and Ike.

When the man himself only says Chrom was considered, that's what I'll choose to believe.

You're taking that wayyyy too hyper-literally. Considered and planned are synonymous in this context, is what I'm getting at. If you actually go into drawing up ideas for how something can work, it's more than just humoring the idea.

Too many people like to dismiss the Gematsu Leak as a lucky guess, and usually they resort to being overly pedantic with the considered/planned thing, all while completely writing off Wii Fit Trainer as a lucky guess and never so much as acknowledging the fact that the leak specifically called Miis "Mii Fighters," which no one did before Smash.

My point was that the Gematsu Leak was 100% legit, but outdated. Let's not stray too far from that point, because that's what's relevant to today's Rhythm Heaven discussion.

 

[Mighty Moose]

ARMS Character
Chance: 65%
It's a relatively popular fighting game IP, so transferring that into Smash should be easy. If Smash 5 development started significantly before ARMS was released though they might be in trouble

Want: 65%
Would be a cool new IP to showcase in Smash and I imagine any ARMS character would be fun in Smash otherwise what the **** was the point of creating ARMS? On the other hand i've never played the game, have no connection to the characters and thinking about it for a second the reach on those arms is going to actually kill me.

Rhythm Heaven Character
Chance: 50%
We know they were at least considered in Smash 4, but we don't know why they didn't make it in (unless I missed something). Will the reasoning have changed in time to make it into Smash 5?

Want: 40%
I don't know anything about these games so I can't muster enthusiasm or hatred.

 

[ChrysanthosVice]

Spring Man (ARMS)
78% Chance
New breakout IP for the Switch, gives the range that Little Mac doesn't have, but that is my main concern - is it too many boxers?
90% Want
I am absolutely genuinely curious as to what Sakurai's gonna do with his up special and his revenge mechanic.

Tebiri/Marshall (Rhythm Heaven)
68% Chance
A lovable IP, yes, and the Chorus Kids were in high demand in the Smash Ballot iirc, but the lack of a series "icon" (an overarching mascot like Pikachu or Villager) puts this in the "maybe so" pile.
100% Want
I love rhythm games and Rhythm Heaven Megamix is one of my favorite games.

Of course, movesets are always a problem. But that's what's fun about new characters: the speculation, the intrigue, the "juice", if you will. And hey, if the characters don't make it in, there's always just making it up yourself.

 

[ssbashworld]

ARMS Rep

Chances: 90%
It does not look like it took off like Splatoon but ARMS still seems to be a new, promising IP with a fanbase and lots of potential for Smash so it seems very likely.

Want: 100%
ARMS was a fun game, I am more wondering who they pick, Spring Man seems to be the face of the game yet Twintella and Min Min are very popular and could be chosen instead as a bit of a surprise (although unlikely).

Rhythm Heaven Rep

Chances: 15%
Do not see a particular reason for this to happen although who knows especially after all the rumors going around about this possibillty for smash 4.

Want: 20%
IDK, never played these game, would this be more of a joke, surprise rep like ROB or Wii Fit Trainer, if so I would rather a different rep, particularly Labo Man.

Nomination: Azura X5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I've rethought how to do concepts that include multipe characters. I will take a weighted average of each character's want percentage according to how likely they are given that one character is added.

Arms character want: 1.5%

Rhythm Heaven character want: 0.5%

Nominations:

Neku x5

 

[masterluigi1]

thought id post this here

https://gonintendo.com/stories/3054...e-toughest-character-to-create-and-the-potent

“I think the correct reaction is to say ‘I can’t answer that!’. Another thing I’d say is that Arms is so young — it’s only a year old — that maybe it’s too early to think about that. But I think it’s absolutely fantastic that there are people out there talking about Arms characters in that way.”

ARMS REP
chances: 50% based on the link above the director says its still a pretty new series

Want: 75% I'd love an arms newcomer but my fear is that we'll get the generic springman over some of the other way more unique designs in that game


RYTHM HEAVEN

chance 30%

want 15%

 

[SmashChu]

No, it still could've been fake. It made nothing but safe picks, aside from the Wii Fit Trainer, which could easily be explained by the leaker having backstage knowledge from E3 2015 (since the leak came out literally one day before the reveal trailer).Yes, Sakurai made a moveset for Chrom, but that doesn't mean he presented it to anyone. For all we know, he could've just thought it in his head or jotted it down at home. From the interview, it's pretty obvious they almost immediately decided on Robin, so I'm gonna guess not. Also, the icon thing only proves they planned a Rhythm Heaven character, not specifically the Chorus Kids. And I know they chose Greninja very early into X/Y's development cycle, but come on. "A Pokemon from X/Y"? If literally anyone else came out with a leak and that was seriously on there, they'd be laughed out the door.

But the ultimate reason why this leak shouldn't be believed is because there's no actual evidence. Every single one of these (except WFT, who like I said, could be explained by backstage knowledge) could easily have just been good guesses, and there's no definitive way to prove otherwise. And if they could prove it, they would have. The ESRB leaker showed multiple screenshots. When that wasn't enough, he showed a video. Obviously he had a lot more physical evidence, but the point is that he showed his hand. The Gematsu leaker just said words with nothing to back it up. And unlike other leaks, like the SFV leak or last year's Nintendo E3 leak, their "leak" wasn't so specific and wild that there's no way it could've just been a correct guess. The only character (except, again, WFT) who wasn't an "obvious pick" were the Chorus Kids, and they were one of the two that were wrong. So believe whatever you want, but to say that it's definitively "not fake" is wrong.

I want to first say you make a really good case.

To add, what got Gematsu in the end was the Robin reveal. What happened is the director of Xenoblade (wanna say it was Takahashi but I could be wrong) retweeted an upcoming reveal that was going to be done on the main website. Most people assumed it was going to be Shulk. Gematsu came in afterward and said his sources said Shulk was going to happen. In the end, it was Robin. He disappeared after that.

The whole situation was odd. The guy made an account here just to say how people were wrong. I remember I made one big post on it where I said that it was false and people were seeing what they wanted to see. For instance, one thread on 4chan said "I really want Greninja" or something like that just before he was unveiled and the thread exploded. Basically, why are we trusting this guy when an anon on 4chan actually got it right. It was only after the thread became popular that he replied to me. There was also a private group (which were more of a thing on old SmashBoards) dedicated to him. The whole thing was weird.

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

Popping in real quick to give my ratings...

Day eighteen--Springy arms and musical charms.

ARMS Character

Chance: 90%

New IP with a very unique mechanic and a great character design? That is Sakurai's bread and butter right there. I remember him making a remark once about All Star, and how big of a new IP gap there was between Pokemon (I think) and Pikmin. He jumped on Shulk, despite JRPG characters being unusual to smash. There's no way he didn't hear about (or was told about) ARMS, and no way he didn't immediately see how viable the characters are for Smash. Then there's the Nintendo factor--they have poured a TON of effort into promoting ARMS, and there is literally no better way to promote any game or series than putting it in Smash, hands down (I'm sure even Ice Climber's sales went up on the eShop, if only a little bit.)

So, I'm afraid, salty people who--for whatever inconceivable reason--have an issue with ARMS in Smash, this is one series who is most likely to be included. The "timeline" argument doesn't hold water when you're talking about internal development and marketing teams at Nintendo, who have their hands so deep into any possible plans for Smash that there is no way that the ARMS characters they developed/were developing/marketing would not be brought before Sakurai.

The only reason it doesn't get 100% is because there is some SLIGHT possibility that Nintendo was unsure if the series would live. That's it. But I've never been this sure of a character's inclusion in Smash before.

Oh, and for the record, I'm predicting Spring Man as a starter, with Ribbon Girl as an unlockable semi-clone. Mark my words.

Want: 100%

I Mean, duh. I still can't see how anyone, even non-ARMS fans, could possibly reject the idea of them being in. "Oh, a new IP oozing with personality and moveset potential? Ick, no! I want a a single obscure character from a longstanding repped franchise!" Really now, who would say that? New IP is always good for Smash, bar none. I'd even be open to something as uninteresting (to ME, let me be clear) as Style Savvy getting a rep over, say, more Fire Emblem or Pokemon.

Which segues nicely into our next entry...

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 65%

It pains me to give that rating, but it must be done. Rhythm Heaven has been around since the early oughts, but still, Sakurai denies its potential. Past experience tells me there is much doubt to be had.

But there is hope--RH could supply the ideal WTF character. You KNOW it's a given. Every Smash has had at least one. And now that Wii Fit Trainer is old news, we need a new one. The main competition for RH in this category would be a Labo character, which is a very real possibility--but RH also has the advantage of being viable as a retro rep, too. Plus, of course I must bring up the Sneaky Spirits in Smash Run--one of very few, if not the only, series without a rep to get an enemy. I feel that's still significant. This is why it gets 65%.

Want: 100%

Old supporter of Marshal, right here. Really though, anyone works for me. I love this series, and every new release is a big deal to me, along the lines of Kirby and Sonic.

Predictions

Daisy: 11%

Paper Mario: 5%

Nominations

Marx x5

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Arms

Chances: 58% - Can go either way. They're new and popular with the Switch. Have some good potential but I wouldn't be surprised if they were an AT and would be out in the next 6mash

Want: 85% - I love their designs and are pretty unique.


Rhythm Heaven


Chances: 30% - Probably would make a good wtf character for casual fans for this game. Just not sure if they will even be able to join the roster with all of the competition

Want: 69% - Love to have them, but I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up being AT.


Nominations: Zeraora x5

 

[Organization XIII]

He jumped on Shulk, despite JRPG characters being unusual to smash.

*Looks at the FE and Earthbound characters* What?

 

[Deleted member]

ARMs newcomer

Chance: 50%
I think Spring Man is pretty likely. The only issue is with timing, but I think Sakurai probably knew of him.

Want: 10%
I don't care about ARMs.
​

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer:

Chance: 30%
Chorus Kids were probably considered for Smash 4. That's it, really.

Want: 0%
Their minigame is terrible.​

Nominations: Labo newcomer x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Well. This is an interesting one.

ARMS Rep

Chance: 40% - until a few minutes ago this was much much MUCH higher. Like 99.9% but after reading that statement from the director of ARMS about the series appearing in smash. I feel a lot less sure on their chances. He raises a good point. The series is very new. Only 1 game and only a year old. And while he says that. The game has proven to be fairly popular and many people are expecting the inclusion of an ARMS character. It could still happen. But it feels like less of a sure thing now. That said, I’d no arms characters get in the base game. I could see them adding Springman as DLC post launch.

Want: 30% - the game was fun. And the stretchy arms could make for some interesting gameplay in smash

Rhythm Heaven Rep

Chance: 45% - rhythm heaven has been around for a while. And there was even an enemy in smash run form the series. It (and polar bear thanks to ice climbers getting cut) were the only enemies from games that didn’t have playable characters in smash. So it feels like there’s some interest in including rhythm heaven stuff on Sakurai’s part. Plus the “leaks” from the lead up to smash 4’s release really increased interest in including “the chorus kids” so with more interest going around online, maybe they have a chance this time

Want: 20% - I don’t really have much interest in the series of characters. But if they can work out a fun rhythm related move set for the character should one get included. It could be interesting to try out.


Predictions

Daisy: 38%

Paper mario: 63%

Nominations

Qbby x4
Banjo & Kazooie x1

 

[Mario123311]

ARMS character
Chance: 95%
Want: 78%

I wouldn't mind whoever, although I would personally prefer Ribbon Girl. I've played very little of Arms but I think it would be neat to include a fighter. The only roadblock it really has is the "too new" excuse, However, we are already in 2018.

Rhythm Heaven Character
Chance: 76%
Want: abstain

Don't know what to really say as I haven't even looked into the series so all I know is it's a rhythm based game by the same team who does WarioWare... I guess I wouldn't mind considering I find most of the character designs unique and the gameplay seems like it could serve for some "oddball" moveset akin to Villager and Pac-Man. I don't really have much else I can say other than I could take it or leave it.

Nominate Klonoa x5

 

[FrozenRoy]

Oops, I missed yesterday! Unfortunate, I was looking forward to it. Really sad I missed Chrom, as I feel he has significantly higher chance than 8% (How is this less than Krystal?).

Chance, ARMs Character - 78%

Prooobably one of the better bets for a newcomer in Smash 5, being a popular new IP with a distinctive flair that is selling well and has a good fighting flavor for getting into the game. When combined with Inklings in Smash 5, it seems like a natural pairing, so I put it pretty high. At the same time, I could see it being a case where an ARMs character might actually be in Smash Six, perhaps being a bit too new or wanting to see how a prospective sequel turns out or so on. While Nintendo's divisions assuredly communicate with each other, we don't know how they internally thought ARMs would do when it was released, and the game IS only one year old. So, I'm gonna put it below some other options like Bandana Dee due to this very real possibility. It is still one of the likelier picks, I feel.

Chance, Rhythm Heaven - 39%

Chorus Kids were probably considered for Smash 4, but they didn't make it in. Is Rhythm Heaven relevant enough? Possibly. How far did they get into developement? We have no idea, so that doesn't really help. I'm not sure how much this is known to the average fan, but maybe that makes them a solid surprise pick? They make me think of Wolf in terms of possibility, so I'll rank them roughly the same, giving Wolf a 1% edge because I feel he's a smidge more likely.

Want, ARMs Character - 30%

If I could CHOOSE the ARMs character, this would be different, for example if I could say Barq and Byte got in. On the other hand, I'm not a fan of a good deal of ARMs design, and unlike Splatoon (A game I initially disliked, but rather came to enjoy to a degree) ARMs just really has failed to capture me. Spring Man is the most likely to get in and he's...okay. I'm not a big fan of him, but he would rep ARMs well enough, and probably have an interesting enough set. I'm just...really not enthused.

Want, Rhythm Heaven - 5%

I haven't looked much into Rhythm Heaven and what I've seen hasn't especially interested me for the moment. I feel there's a lot of characters from franchises we have, including Fire Emblem and Pokemon, or other potential new franchises, like if we got Dillon or Travis Touchdown in, who would be a lot more interesting to me. I don't have the dislike of Rex & Pyra to push it to 0%, but I think a sound based set could be cool or could potentially flop really hard, so I'm putting it below other super meh picks like Squirtle.

Prediction

Daisy: 65.9%
Paper Mario: 22.7%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x4
Takumi (FE Fates) x1

 

[JamesDNaux]

ARMS

Chance: 50%
It probably won't be on the base roster, but I expect it to come eventually.

Want: 10%
Only played the test punch and found the gameplay to be incredibly shallow.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 10%
It missed the boat with Smash 4.

Want: 0%
Never played it before.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Son of a... Long day at work, so I’m super late with this.

ARMS (all in caps, in case the topic was too subtle)

Chance: 50%
Want: 10%

New IP, and they hyped it up a lot. Seems a bit new for that, but I do remember them discussing the concept when Switch was announced. And then...really not much noise on that front.

I could see them adding a rep for the game, but that would really just translate to Little Mac with range. The game itself never caught me, and since release, I honestly don’t hear much about it anymore.

Gotta say though, that concept weirds me the F out. What, like some people are born with extendo-limbs instead of arms? How F’d up is that?! And then these people are predestined to be in a fighting ring? What, mom has the baby and the doctor’s like “Ma’am, your son was born with noodles for arms so the government will take possession of him and train him to be a springo-boxer.

Maybe I’m just overthinking this.

Rhythm Guys

Chance: 50%
Want: 0%

Blah blah Gematsu blah...

Even when they were leaked, I rolled my eyes. The RH series has very few consistent characters, so I can’t see how they would possibly work out.

Yes, the series is popular in Japan, but still...

Now RH does have some cool songs and would make an excellent stage, so I’m all for that. But a fighter? I get it, WTF characters are fun for a bit, but after three days, not so much. That was my experience with the Wii Fit trainer - an initial “that’s so funny and bizarre!” which quickly turned to “why is this stupid character here?” once I started playing.

Prediction for Daisy: 33.3%
Prediction for Paper: 15.7%

Nom: Skyrim x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

ARMS Rep

Chances: 80%
I think it's practically guaranteed, between Sakurai's newfound love of new franchises to pull ideas from and the free exposure it'd give to a potentially-successful Nintendo franchise. While there's a few things things that might make such an inclusion problematic (most prominently, the inherently-impressive horizontal range all the fighters have), ARMS is fortunate enough to come out so early in the Switch's life cycle that their absence from Smash 5 would be felt pretty keenly by the Switch user base. And if they don't make it into the base roster, there'd probably be enough clamor to get them in as DLC.

Want: 15%
It's not a game I've tried yet, so I don't have the motivation to properly root for this franchise. But the potential is certainly there, and I'm sure more invested fans will have a better handle on who ought to be the best inclusion and what they should bring with them.


Rhythm Heaven Rep

Chances: 35%
Despite being one of many Nintendo franchises currently in limbo, Rhythm Heaven has a knack for constantly showing up every time speculation season begins. It certainly hasn't been forgotten, and it has just enough quirks to make a moveset representing the entirety of it an interesting idea, but time is working against it like it does so many other franchises. As well as the lack of a good "main" character to design a moveset around.

Want: 1%
I can't support picking just one character out of all those minigames to represent everyone else. The individual games just don't really stand above the others unless it's the wrestler-reporter one, so trying to shoe in Karate Kid or Chorus Kids feels like representation for representation's sake, instead of an actual interest in the character itself - because in the case of Rhythm Heaven, it's all those minigames played together that gives it its identity, not just one of them.


Predictions:
Daisy: 27%
Paper Mario: 48%

Nominations:
Arle Nadja 5x

 

[DaUsername]

whoops almost forgot to do this
ARMS
Chance: 75%
Want: 65%
Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 50%
Want: N/A

Daisy prediction: 4%
Paper Mario prediction: 20%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Arms Character
80% Chance

Timing is something that could play a role into ARMS's chances. It could be too late for the franchise to have gotten into the base roster. However, I feel that it still has a good chance. It just feels like a safe bet. I could easily visualize Spring Man or Ribbon Girl duking it out with other Nintendo Characters. It also is in a good spot as it has been out for a god bit of time while still getting support. I could easily see the franchise enter the ring.

50% Want

Ribbon Girl is a cutie, but Spring Man is fugly. I would rather have the character that is not hideous. I could see them try to pull a Robin scenario and have the two characters be skins of each other with perhaps merging their movesets.

Rhythm Heaven Character
90% Chance

Yeah I think this is more likely than ARMS. The biggest thing helping it is we have good knowledge that there was RH content planned for Smash 4. Why it was cut we do not know, but people can speculate on time constraints or 3DS issues. I feel we could easily see Sakurai return to previously looked at ideas in this Smash, especially if this game is being built off of 4.

100% Want

See my sig. I love this franchise. It is so cute, even if i suck at it I love it. The idea of a Rhythm based fighter is captivating to see. I would love to see how it would work.

Nominating No Cuts x 5

DAY OVER, CALCS INCOMING

 

[PhilosophicAnimal]

*Looks at the FE and Earthbound characters* What?

Those are a little bit of a different story. When I say JRPG, I'm referring to the heavily anime-influenced, mana-referencing, everlasting life-giving tree kind of RPGs. Earthbound is decidedly different from all of those, and Fire Emblem, while anime-heavy, is mostly pretty straight-laced, real war epic sort of stuff, especially in it's early years--plus, it's more of a strategy game, lacking a lot of elements standard to most JRPGs and having others foreign to them (like permadeath.) Sakurai himself even stated that Shulk was "not the kind of character that is typically in Super Smash Bros," (paraphrasing--too lazy to look up the quote, lol.) I mean, compare Earthbound or even FE side-to-side with the Tales series, for example--I can't imagine anyone who would say they're at ALL similar.

Beyond that, I would argue that, at the time of their reveal, Marth and Roy were also a bit of an oddity in Smash. They were a pair of decidedly Japanese-style characters, unknown to half the world, suddenly showing up in a game full of Nintendo's all time greats. People are just used to Fire Emblem now--they don't quite remember how very weird it was for those two to pop up at first. It was only after people played them and found out how cool they were that everyone wanted to know where they came from. I imagine there's plenty of folks who had that very same reaction to beam sword anime guy (AKA Shulk) when he first showed up. Even Ness probably got some of that back in the 64 days--there are some who still don't know what Earthbound is all about.

So I guess it's a sort of "Niche fandom" character thing that sets them apart. You have to remember, Smash has an enormous fanbase, an unfortunately large portion of which actually consider Goku, Shrek, or any number of other non-game characters legitimately viable.

So yes, I'd argue that all of the above characters are unusual for Smash. My point was that I believe he was dipping into the "niche" series with Shulk, as there weren't a whole lot of options for new IP that weren't third party at the time.

But anyway, I've derailed this thread long enough, lol.

 

[Organization XIII]

Fire Emblem, while anime-heavy, is mostly pretty straight-laced, real war epic sort of stuff, especially in it's early years--plus, it's more of a strategy game, lacking a lot of elements standard to most JRPGs and having others foreign to them (like permadeath.)

Well FE is actually a straight tactical JRPG but ok yeah I see what you mean. Shulk was a far more niche choice than anything added before.

 

[Deleted member]

Sakurai himself even stated that Shulk was "not the kind of character that is typically in Super Smash Bros," (paraphrasing--too lazy to look up the quote, lol.)

"He's not the type of character that would usually appear in the Smash Bros. series, but we worked really hard to make it happen. We're very happy with how he turned out."

I'll admit Sakurai was pretty vague on that statement, but it sounds more like he was referring to Shulk's moveset than anything else. You can see the full original quote here.

That's all I have to say on the matter, especially since it isn't Shulk's day yet.

 

[farvin111]

ARMS chance: 90%

Presumably Sakurai's been informed of future releases, so I think the recent release of Arms shouldn't be an issue. Whoever's chosen, I'm very confident there'll be an Arms rep, as it's a new original IP from Nintendo that they've been trying to push. Also, they're a perfect fit for Smash both aesthetically and practically, so I see little reason why Sakurai wouldn't include them besides maybe he didn't know about them during development.

ARMS want: 55%

I never played ARMS, but it looks interesting enough. It would feel weird if they didn't make it in, so that's the only reason why I'm leaning more towards "want" than neutral.

Rhythm Heaven chance: 80%

It's a popular, unrepped, relatively recent Nintendo IP that absolutely deserves a spot. The whole Gematsu hoopla gives them a pretty big edge, as I fully believe someone was intended to be playable but couldn't make it in. I don't really know which RH character would be chosen, but I think it's pretty damn likely we'll get a rep this time.

Rhythm Heaven want: 90%

I am so curious how they'd handle it and what character Sakurai would choose, not to mention the series itself is really dope.

 

[3D Dillon]

Lots of people were expecting the Chorus Kids to represent Rhythm Heaven, but Rhythm Troupe (which is the Rhythm girl with powers to summon Rhythm Heaven characters) would seem to have more potential.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Arms

80%
It's new. It's cool. The sales passed 1 million. The only thing that can hurt their chances are the time that the roster was decided. But DLC is here. So we will get them on a way or on another

Want: 100%
My favourite is Min Min

Rhythm Heaven (every glow is a guitar string)
Chance: 50%
I'm not giving a higher chance on them based on found game data. Remember Dixie, Toon Zelda, Toon Sheik and Pra_Mai data in Brawl? Well they didn't appear in Smash 4

Want: 75%
It's really confusing thinking on a character from this series. Chorus Men always come first because of the Gematsu leak

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Arms
70.45% Chance
58.12% Want

Rhythm Heaven
49.94% Chance
52.88% Want

Arms seems like a big contender in the eyes of many, while Rhythm Heaven still seems likely in the eyes of many. Excited to see how these scores break down over other nominated characters.

Today we shall have yet another double day. Please rate Daisy and Paper Mario in chance and want. Also, please predict the scores for Pichu and Young Link tomorrow.

DaUsername and @Runic_SSB won noms for ARMS, while CaptainAmerica won noms for Rhythm Heaven, you all get 5 extra noms.

 

[Opossum]

Daisy.
Chance - 1%
There are many Mario characters I think would have higher priority. Captain Toad quickly reached all-star status. Waluigi has ascended to god of memes and has more obvious potential for a moveset. Hell, I'd even say the likes of Geno or Pauline are more likely, not to mention Paper Mario. At the end of the day, Sakurai could also just see nothing interesting about Daisy. Throwing random references to sports and party games together does not a moveset make.

Want: 0%
A certain someone ruined the character for me, and I wasn't even a fan before that...



Paper Mario time.

Chance: 10%
Stiff competition, but he's popular.

Want: 0%
I can't say enough how much I loathe having two characters on the roster twice, no matter how unique. Toon Link was only one I was remotely happy about.


Predicting a 4.5 for Pichu, and a 2.4 for Young Link
Nominating Celica x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

You're taking that wayyyy too hyper-literally. Considered and planned are synonymous in this context, is what I'm getting at. If you actually go into drawing up ideas for how something can work, it's more than just humoring the idea.

Too many people like to dismiss the Gematsu Leak as a lucky guess, and usually they resort to being overly pedantic with the considered/planned thing, all while completely writing off Wii Fit Trainer as a lucky guess and never so much as acknowledging the fact that the leak specifically called Miis "Mii Fighters," which no one did before Smash.

My point was that the Gematsu Leak was 100% legit, but outdated. Let's not stray too far from that point, because that's what's relevant to today's Rhythm Heaven discussion.

For the record, I do think the Gematsu leak was legit, but you yourself said your post was a "minor but important nitpick," and so is this. Yeah, I know this isn't the point you were making, so I promise this will be the last post I make on the subject. We don't know how many layers Sakurai goes through, how much he really considered anything that didn't make it into the game, and terminology means a lot when it comes to something like this, so considered and planned are certainly not synonymous. If you're going to be the one trying to smooth out minute details, make sure your own are already smoothed out.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Rhythm Heaven
49.94% Chance
52.88% Want

I'm so proud of Rhythm Heaven. It did a lot better than I expected it to.
I think we're going to need to add some of the nominations to the schedule soon, because we only have a few more days ahead of us.

It's late, so I'll write something up about Paper Mario and Daisy in the morning. Although, I'll probably TEAR them to shreds, even though I do love me some Paper Mario.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Daisy

Chance: 10%

Want: 50%

I still like Daisy despite those two certain fanboys of her. Mario has 7 reps already so I don't think they will get an newcomers for this installment.

Paper Mario

Chance: 20%

Want: 50%

Could be interesting, but as I said for Daisy I don't see any new mario characters for Switch.

Predictions:

Young Link: 12.56%

Pichu: 14.77%

Nominate Lucas x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'm so proud of Rhythm Heaven. It did a lot better than I expected it to.
I think we're going to need to add some of the nominations to the schedule soon, because we only have a few more days ahead of us.

It's late, so I'll write something up about Paper Mario and Daisy in the morning. Although, I'll probably TEAR them to shreds, even though I do love me some Paper Mario.

Once we get out off March we start to go down the nominations list.The primary purpose of initial structured days was to get the thread rolling. Now that we have a large amount of nominations we are golden.

 

[Ura]

The Sassy Princess and her Paper Companion

Chance

Daisy: 7%
Paper Mario: 65%

Daisy is pretty popular in the Smash fanbase from what i've seen but I don't see her as a viable contender being mostly relegated to spinoffs. Top that off with the competition she faces from Captain Toad, Paper Mario himself, and possibly Geno and things don't look good for her. That being said, I could see her working as a semi-clone of Peach if Sakurai ever wanted to do that. Paper Mario on the other hand I feel had a decent chance with Color Splash being a recent title and being arguably the most popular prospective Mario newcomer.

Want

Daisy: 60%
Paper Mario: 75%

That being said I think Daisy could be a fine addition to the roster clone or not. I could see her being much more unique compared to Peach and Rosa. Paper Mario I would have been more enthusiastic about a decade ago but i'd still like him in. Hopefully more based on his first two games.

Prediction

Chance
Pichu: 12%
Young Link: 4%

Want
Pichu: 10%
Young Link: 14%

Nominations

Andy X 5

 

[NintenRob]

Daisy
Chance 30%
I don't think she stands much of a chance in own right, but her similarities to Peach make her prime clone material. I actually expect her to be an alt like Alph but I could see her going the Lucina route
Want 40%
I don't want her as a unique character, but I wouldn't be bothered that much by it. I actually really want to see her as alt for peach, and clone isn't that far removed from it.

Paper Mario
Chance 35%
He's popular, but I don't see him being prioritized over characters from the core series, I'm not even convinced his model would work in Smash
Want 20%
I don't really want another Mario who isn't my adorable childhood main from the spin-offs Baby Mario (although even I love him, I admit he probably shouldn't be in Smash) but I have no care about Paper Mario. To me he's just Mario.

Prediction
Both 4%

Nominate Skull Kid x1
Parabo and Satebo x4

 

[MasterWarlord]

Sticker Star Mario Chance - 40%: This character used to be predicted a lot more during the SSB4 era, now that's not quite as common. I couldn't really tell you why when it's had Color Splash released recently. The Paper Mario franchise is plenty more prominent than Captain Toad, so this has a real chance to get in over it.

Sticker Star Mario Want - 0%: No alternate characters, please. I love Paper Mario, TTYD, and SPM, but it would represent the cancer that is Sticker Star and Color Splash and fill the moveset with horrible tacky props. That is not my Paper Mario. Get it out of here. Add an actual character from one of the earlier games instead, or Fawful given he's "recent."

Daisy Chance - 2%: Sorry to be blunt, but she's basically just a worse Waluigi, who Sakurai arbitrarily hates. Yes, she appeared outside of spin offs a couple times, but that's long past and forgotten by now. Waluigi is far more popular, as seen in threads like top 10 wanted here and various Reddit/4chan polls. If anything, it's better for Waluigi he only shows up in spin offs, as that would let him represent them better. Mario spin offs as a franchise are bigger than Splatoon, Arms, and RH combined.

I know this makes Daisy fans angry, but I think her most likely shot is still as a Peach clone. Yes, I know she can do other things and could have a moveset as good as Waluigi's theoretically. Ganondorf has a lot of potential too, that's not the point. The point is I don't think she'll be prioritized enough to be added without being a """""""dessert""""""" like Dark Pit.

Daisy Want - 0%: Sorry, she just doesn't have the personality of Waluigi for me.

Predict Pichu 4.5%
Predict Young Link 4.5%

Nominations

Blue Bowser x5

 

[Deleted member]

"Hi I'm Daisy!"

Chance: 5%

She's a rather popular character who I suppose who could have her moveset inspired by Super Mario Land and some of the spin-offs, but Peach already covers some of the latter with some of her moves. Though I'm sure there are ways she can be unique.

Want: 15%

There are other Mario characters I'd much rather have. Her inclusion wouldn't be the end of the world for me, though.

Paper Mario

Chance: 7%

He has his unique appeal, but Sakurai has yet to add alternate versions of characters that aren't last-minute (semi-)clones or initially part of existing movesets like Sheik. Though if anyone breaks the mold, I can see it being Paper Mario, despite his more recent games being not very well-received critically.

Want: 55%

I don't mind.

Prediction: Young Link - 3.7% (There will probably be some overrating.); Pichu - 4.5% (Ditto.)

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[andimidna]

. I could see her being much more unique compared to Peach and Rosa.

It’s late so I’ll post later, but I’m just wondering what this means
Like what? I’m terms of personality? Lmao

 

[Quetzal77]

Daisy
Chance: 15%
I see other Mario characters (especially C. Toad) as more likely, but she could get in as a second Mario newcomer IF there are more than a handful or so total (which I also doubt).

Want: 0%
She just annoys me in every game she's in.

Paper Mario
Chance: 30%
Same situation as Daisy but I feel he has slightly better odds because it's easier to see how he could be unique.

Want: 0%
I like(d) Paper Mario a lot, but when it comes to Mario characters I'm really selective in who I want added. I don't see Paper Mario as necessary.

Prediction:
Pichu: 6.5%
Young Link: 17%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Neku, Elma, Mipha, Celica

 

[Organization XIII]

Daisy

Chance:30%

When it comes to Daisy, I don't think her chances are very good. Sure, Mario spin-offs will continue long after everyone on this forum's grandchildren are dead, making relevancy a non-issue, and just being a Mario character makes 70x more known than just about anyone else in Nintendo's catalog of characters but the thing is she isn't important. She's a tertiary character at best and there are far better choices from the Mario series to choose over her.


Want: 0%

I don't play Mario sports titles where most of her fans seem to draw from to give her individuality, so to me, she's just recolored Peach.


Paper Mario

Chance: 40%

To me, this is the only big Mario character they have yet to add. I always found it weird that Mario and Luigi didn't use hammers in their movesets and I figured it was because Paper Mario would be filling that role eventually. It's been a few games since then so my optimism for PM has died quite a bit. Especially after IS confirmed that the important RPG series is the M&L one and not PM, since they've altered the formula to feel more distinct(even though it wasn't necessary in the first place). With that in mind, I don't think Nintendo as a whole views it as important. If that's the case then PM may never appear.


Want: 100%

I LOOOOOVE JRPG's and Paper Mario are some of the best. The first three games anyways, Color Splash was good but it was held back by that horrible card system(which is a shame as most people are going to write it off as another SS when it is so much better. If they had just made it turn based it might be called a return to form), and Sticker Star is just a piece of garbage, though that's an unfair comparison to garbage. I'd love to see Paper Mario in Smash and hopefully with Paper Mario Switch with gameplay from TTYD and a story on par with Super. A man can dream.

noms Tethu X5