Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Runic_SSB]

I don't care that no one else expects him. He has great chances and I like him. I don't need other people to expect him.

Then why did you reply at all? My post was in reply to MrElectroG64 saying that Takamaru was heavily expected, saying that I disagreed. I swear to god, you Takamaru people go out of your way to fight about Takamaru.

 

[Depressed Gengar]

I swear, you people are WAY too dead set that IF we get a retro, it's going to be Takamaru.

Excitebiker Chance: 5%
This case is similar to Urban Champion's: a character that was considered once, but ultimately got rejected because of difficulties of even making the character work.

Buuuut there's one thing that separates those two apart. Something that still lets Excitebiker stand a chance while Urban Champion holds basically none: relevance.

Now, relevance alone doesn't get a character in, nor does it disqualify them. But Excitebike's definitely more relevant, which means it's going to be standing a better chance at getting looked at again, and thus Sakurai could reconsider Excitebiker. Whereas Urban Champ is irrelevant to the point where he probably wouldn't even stand a chance at getting reconsidered.

... That doesn't mean Excitebiker's got great odds of getting added, but hey, just maybe.

Want: 40%
Excitebiker's arguably one of the more noteworthy characters not added yet, and I'm usually for getting those characters in, but... Excitebiker's not one of those. Everything the Excitebiker has is something that Mach Rider does too, and Mach Rider has a bit more than that. I'd accept Excitebiker's inclusion, but Mach Rider's more appealing.

Pyra/ Mythra Chance: 0%
Actually technically possible, as Pyra and Mythra can fight without Rex, so that's not the problem. The problem is that the Driver/ Blade stuff is still a core mechanic in Xenoblade 2. It really wouldn't make sense why Sakurai would just say no to excluding something as prominent as that mechanic if he's including anyone from Xenoblade 2.

Want: 0%
Nah.

Skyrim Prediction: 20%

Music Prediction: 70%

Nominations: Rex/ Pyra X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Maybe I should return to nominating Mach Rider. It seems people here really like him.

 

[Pacack]

I swear, you people are WAY too dead set that IF we get a retro, it's going to be Takamaru.

Is there a reason not to expect a retro? We've had one in every game since Melee. (Ice Climbers, Pit, Little Mac)

I can definitely understand why putting all eggs in one basket could be frustrating, but I would be very surprised to not see a retro character at all.

And, yes, Sakurai has made it clear that Little Mac is retro in his eyes despite the Wii game. I can dig up the quote for you, but I'm on my phone so it's a little more difficult to get it for you than normal.

 

[Organization XIII]

Then why did you reply at all? My post was in reply to MrElectroG64 saying that Takamaru was heavily expected, saying that I disagreed. I swear to god, you Takamaru people go out of your way to fight about Takamaru.

You said no one expects unless they're Japanese or hard core smash fans so I have you the reasons people actually expect him. I wasn't fighting I was clarifying. Even then plenty of people have bandwagoned on to him. And my next response was merely suggesting I don't need people to expect him for him to be likely. It wasn't meant to be combative.

 

[Koopaul]

I always figured the main gimmick of Excitebiker is that he is fast and powerful on his bike but if he is knocked off his bike he is weak and slow. He'd be like Little Mac in a way. Very dependant on his comfort zone, incredibly vulnerable off it.

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 0%

It will never happen. Why would Sakurai want to make the decision to not accurately represent the biggest mechanic of Xenoblade 2.

Rex is THEIR Driver and it WOULDN'T make sense for them to fight alone.

Want: 0%

It's a waste of potential. That's all I will say on the matter....

Excitebiker

Chance: 13%

Excitebiker is an iconic NES game next to Balloon Fighter. Used to be an Assist Trophy, but now made a regular trophy. They would have to figure out how to make his bike moveset work and the track is sadly more notable than the drivers themselves.

Want: 50%

Neutral, but I would love to see how it works. Balloon Fighter is more deserving IMO.

Prediction for Skyrim: 12%
FD V2 Music prediction: 28%

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[DaUsername]

Rex-jected
Chance: 0.01%
I don't know much about Xenoblade 2 characters, but I do know this is really unlikely. Especially since we probably won't even get a Xenoblade 2 character in the base roster.
Want: N/A
Excited Bike Man
Chance: 5%
While his franchise isn't completely dead (he had some Wii game) and Sakurai considered him once before, I don't really seem him as likely. I'm not really sure how they'd make him work in Smash. Though happened so anything is possible.
Want: 0%
No thanks, is the only biker I need. (Mach Rider would also be kinda cool.)

Music prediction: 95%
Skyrim prediction: 8%

Noms: Mach Rider x5

 

[Slavic]

Pyra & Mythra
Chance - 5%
​

This is actually a really tricky one to discuss, but in general I think it's unlikely compared to the inclusion of Rex and Pyra. Rex acts as the 'Shulk' of Xenoblade, almost all the story is either told from his perspective, to him, or about him at the beginning of the game, and despite my absolute disdain for him, he is one of the most likely newcomers in general, not just from Xenoblade. The points about this have been discussed today ad nauseum: Rex is the main character, Pyra is rarely seen without him, and the Blade-Driver combat is what XC2 focuses on. The first two points I think cinch it but I will contest the last point, as I don't think the uniqueness of RPG combat will carry over into Smash. XC has a pretty distinct combat style, but very little was carried over into Smash aside from Back Slash's directional boost. XC features a huge focus on Tension, Break/Topple/Daze Arts, and Chain Attacks, and only the last one is included and only as Shulk's Final Smash. With Rex's inclusion in Smash he might not utilize any of the interesting combat mechanics in XC2 for the simplicity of making a fighting game character, so we might not see Blade Combos or even possibly Blade-Driver combat. If this were the case, then there is a possibility that Sakurai would realize that Rex does almost nothing on his own and would put Pyra on her own, and that might include a transformation to Mythra. However, all of this I doubt will be the case, and mostly is just brought up to say the combat importance in XC2 might be overstated in this discussion.

Want - 65%​

I already talked about my Xeno wishes on KOS-MOS' day, but since she has virtually no chance, and my other top of the line choices like Fiora, Metal Face, and Morag are incredibly unlikely, this is something I would support because I cannot get myself to enjoy Rex no matter how hard I try. I know we're getting him, and this would essentially be the only alternative to his inclusion, so it is something I would want.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Pyra and Mythra

Chance: 9%

- It’s possible but I can see them being implemented with Rex.

Want: 3%

- They aren’t Nia.

Excitebike

Chance: 7%

- Unlikely but not impossible.

Want: 2%

- Not really interested.

Predictions

Skyrim: 16%
FD V2 Music: 21%

Nominations

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x3
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna end the day now, time for calcs.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Steve
22.34% Chance
14.33% Want

Minecraft clearly is not popular around here parts. God forbid the outrage at a reveal.

Pyra/Mythra (w/o) Rex
3.75% Chance
17.23% Want

People seem to be set on Rex and Pyra together. Quite a contrast from our current #1 in Chance.

Excitebiker
19.33% Chance
40.45% Want

For a non Takamaru retro I think this is pretty good.



Today we got a double day again. We got Skyrim representation of any kind in smash and the returning song Final Destinaion V2. Rate these in Chance and want. Also predict the scores for Lara Croft and Bubsy.


IM too tired to look through for who got noms, but I will in the morning. God the new layout makes this harder for me.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Dovahkiin, fah hin kogaan mu draal!

Appropriate music necessary:

Chance: 10% (1% for playable, up to 10% for other representation)
Want: 100%

Ok, so for all of my feelings that I’m not a huge fan of third parties in Smash, there is one that I would unabashedly celebrate. I completely admit that I'm a total hypocrite on this one.

However, I know that Dovahkiin becoming playable doesn’t have a snowball's chance. But that's not the only way something could get representation...

Skyrim's actually an older game now - first released in 2011 and since then rereleased on literally everything that could run it. True, it has its flaws and is starting to show its age a bit, but that doesn't take away from the fact that it was an amazing game and made an immense impact. Bethesda, for me at least, is the name in open-world RPGs since you can lose yourself so easily, and they're great to come back to over and over again (that reminds me, I need to go back and play Morrowind again).

Normally, despite being a groundbreaking game in the first place, I wouldn't bat my eyes at it in Smash...then the Switch was announced. Of course the announcement trailer showed off Breath of the Wild - everyone knew that BotW was going to be the game that sold Switches. And then...Skyrim? Nintendo's got a Bethesda RPG on it's new console? And it's portable? A Nintendo console is powerful enough for that!? Kinda says something when the second game ever shown off on the Switch behind Breath of the Wild is the archetypal Western RPG. Think about it: Skyrim was shown off before Mario.

Beyond that, I feel Skyrim was influential on Breath of the Wild itself. The two games were compared frequently, and there's a lot of BotW that feels more 'Western RPG' than 'Traditional Zelda.' Sure, each is its own game, but I really did get a 'Skyrim' vibe playing through BotW. I'm willing to bet that the devs did enjoy parts of the game. And, that did end up going both ways as well - Skyrim's Switch release has a few unique features, including BotW-style chests containing a full set of Link's gear (Master Sword, Hylian Shield, and the Champions Tunic), and the new option to make a Wood Elf with blue eyes. Ostensibly so you could play as Link and add 'Dragonborn' to his already impressive array of titles.

As to representation of Skyrim in Smash, though...there's very little precedent. Honestly, I never even considered it until some YouTuber commented "Dovahkiin for Smash!" on the announcement trailer. Sakurai has never put a Western character in as playable, and Dovahkiin also suffers a bit of empty avatar that Robin had - he is a blank character to be filled in by the player, but there is a definite canon look and feel for him. I tried to play the default male Nord Barbarian once, and ended up as a stealth archer again by the first dungeon. Still, I prefer his default look and feel. He'd make a cool barbarian archetype - his concept art has him dual wielding a sword and dagger which would be awesome for normals, but he's also got the potential for a bunch of other weapons if that's too boring - I've got a full moveset using all of his weapons and a few other things in the playable Dovahkiin thread, which I've copied here if anyone's interested. Also, no matter which set of normals, the specials would be great Dragon Shouts:

Spoiler: Costumes and Possible Moveset

As Skyrim allows for full character customization and full choice on armor (and their associated questlines), it would be most interesting for the various costumes to reference each in some way. The various costumes could be:

· The default Dragonborn in his iconic outfit, as shown in the wallpaper.
· A female in steel armor, like Lydia
· A male in Stormcloak gear, like Ralof
· A female in Imperial armor, like Legate Rikke
· A male Thieves Guild member, like Brynjolf
· A female Dark Brotherhood assassin, like Astrid
· A male Greybeard, like the one on the loading screen
· A female College of Winterhold mage, like the loading screen

Different costumes could also change the race of the player, giving Redguard Alik’r Warriors, High Elf Thalmor, or Orcs. The looks of fan-favorite styles like Aela or Serana (yes, those two are fan favorites for a reason) could also be used.

To avoid being too similar to a standard sword style in Smash already, Dovahkiin could use hammerspace to pull out different weapons for attacks. For the default, a longsword and a dagger in the off hand would be default, but the off hand could switch out for a staff, a shield, or any other weapon as needed.

Dovahkiin can crawl (uses sneaking animation)

Neutral: a simple sword slash, followed by a dagger thrust.
Ftilt: Equips a shield and does a shield bash.
Utilt: A simple uppercut without a weapon.
Dtilt: Stabs low with dagger.
Dash: Equips a battleaxe and makes a large vertical swipe
Fsmash: Equips a bow and shoots forward. Arrows are affected by gravity, but not to the extent of an uncharged Link bow.
Usmash: Forms an ice rune on the ground, which explodes and launches foes upward.
Dsmash: Equips a battleaxe and sweeps the ground.
Nair: Holds sword and dagger out and spins.
Fair: Swings sword in front.
Bair: Equips a shield and bashes behind.
Uair: Equips a staff and sends a fire blast upwards, like Zelda’s Uair.
Dair: Equips a bow and fires straight down.
Grab: Grabs the enemy with free left hand.
Pummel: Hilt strike with sword.
Fthrow: Kicks enemy to ground, then equips a bow and shoots arrows at him, like Green Arrow’s throw in Injustice 2.
Bthrow: Equips a staff and uses Telekinesis to hoist enemy and throw behind.
Uthrow: Elbows enemy away, then equips a battleaxe and launches enemy upwards.
Dthrow: Turns enemy around and stabs with a dagger, and allows him to fall (similar to Snake’s throw). No knockback, but high damage.

The specials are all based around Shouts in the game

NSpecial: Unrelenting Force – level changes depending on length button is held. Level 1 staggers enemies, level 2 has slight damage and knockback, level 3 has impressive knockback. There is a recharge timer for this.
SSpecial: Fire Breath – Blasts a quick burst of fire forward.
USpecial: Dragon Aspect – An ethereal draconic suit appears around Dovahkiin, and he jets upward on his wings, causing damage and knockback as he flies. After a short upward flight, the armor disappears and he goes into free fall.
DSpecial: Ice Form – Makes a blizzard in a small radius around the Dovahkiin which freezes enemies.

Final Smash: Bend Will – Dovahkiin calls a dragon and mounts. The dragon flies off, and then loops around to cover the screen in a jet of fire, similar to Game of Thrones’ Loot Train Attack.

But there's something I can't ignore: Rayman. He got a trophy in the game despite having no playable representation at all. I think it'd honestly be cool to see loads of trophies to show off third-parties important to Nintendo even without playable representation (and as we mentioned a few days ago, some third-parties would make great stages instead of characters like Minecraft), so this would be awesome. I threw together some quick mockups of trophies that would look incredible.

Or, what about Akira, Jacky, Heihachi, Lloyd, Dragon Hunter, Gil...all Mii Costumes from unrepresented franchises. Again, these are mostly Eastern, but it would be cool enough to stuff a Mii Swordfighter in the iconic armor like the Xbox avatar here. I'd play the heck out of that Mii then.

There's also the option of representation based on music (that awesome soundtrack!), and I'd love to see the Draugr running (well, shuffling) around Smash Run.

I'd love to see any kind of representation for Skyrim really. Of course I'd die of excitement if he were playable, but even so I'd rather him be DLC in the first place. Still not a fan of overstocking the vanilla roster with third parties, and I realize that he doesn't 'fit' in smash thematically to a lot of people so I'd like that as an option. However for me that would be a day one purchase and I would have loads of fun with it.

And just imagine of Dovahkiin and Ridley are both confirmed...? Every dragon needs a hunter! Truly epic Smashfests! Or imagine this: Found on Google...

[Squeaky Kirby voice] FUS RO DAH!

---

I'll abstain on the music thing - I'm a bit sidetracked by Skyrim and have to go start playing that again (and this post is long enough)

Prediction for Lara: 9.9%
Nom: Transformations x5

 

[CometX-ing]

Skyrim and FD V2

Chances: 0% & abstain
Ya know, just because your game is on Nintendo consoles doesn't automatically give you a chance at representation. And I find it very hard to believe that as a third party Skyrim will get anything at all. Even a trophy is extremely unlikely.

Want: 0% & Abstain
Played Skyrim, got pretty bored pretty fast. On top of just being bland aestheticly, I just don't find it very fun to play.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[Deleted member]

Skyrim Content

Chance: Abstain

I'm not sure how to feel about this one.

Want: 65%

Mostly for the music, really. I'd also be okay with Dragonborn as a playable character or trophy.

Final Destination Ver. 2 (Smash 4)

Chance: Abstain

Take what I said about Skyrim and apply it here.

Want: 80%

Brawl's Final Destination theme was the best in my opinion, but this was good too.

Nomination: Bayonetta x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Some interesting arguments against Pyra/Mythra, a few good points for support, and quite a lot of dislike for them/impulsive takes. Overall I'm not surprised Rex is seen as more likely but I wasn't expecting such a low rating! Glad to read people's thoughts though.

Skyrim
Chance: abstain
Definitely 0% for playable characters, stages, or music. Maybe a trophy, but I have no idea what number I'd assign to it. Certainly a low one.

Want: 0%
It's an old game and a late port to Nintendo hardware. Just because it's on Switch doesn't mean it should be in Smash.

FD 2.0
Chance: 50%
I mean, it probably literally comes down to a yes/no decision. If there's a ton of music again it'll probably appear.

Want: abstain
No real preference one way or the other. More music is always good.

Lara: 22.1%
Bubsy: 3.7%
Nominations: Neku x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Skyrim Representation:
Chance: 25.41% - Maybe it could happen, but only a song or something. I don't see anything else getting in.
Want: 0% - Meh. Not a fan.

Final Destination (Ver. 2)
Chance: ABSTAIN - How am I supposed to rate a song's chance?
Want: ABSTAIN - And nor do I care.

Prediction: Lara Croft
Chance: 21.13%
Want: 36.34%

Prediction: Bubsy
Chance: 1.21%
Want: 1.21%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit

 

[Runic_SSB]

Steve
22.34% Chance

According to this thread, the Minecraft guy has a better chance of making it into Smash Bros. than Chibi Robo, Ridley, Lyn, Professor Layton, Isaac, Banjo and Kazooie, Simon Belmont, Travis Touchdown, Jibanyan, Tom Nook, Arle Nadja, Daisy, Shantae, Phoenix Wright, Sylux, Skull Kid, Marx, Funky Kong, Dark Samus, Mipha, Dr. Eggman, Midna, Lip, Krystal, Andy, and Sora (along with a bunch of others). I wonder how Freddy Fazbear or Tracer or Teemo would do here. Those are laughably absurd predictions that only a child would make, but they're icons from popular games like Steve, so I guess they also have a better chance than Ridley.

I'd go on a bigger rant, but I have to conserve my energy. I'm already charging up my Chaos Dunk for when Steve inevitably does not get into this Nintendo crossover game, so be ready for that.

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 0%
The "This 3rd-party character had their game ported so they have a chance" mindset needs to die. It's like Kingdom Hearts fans when Disney buys a company. They keep saying "omg now they can put this character in the game" even though they've said it every single time it happened and have literally never been right.

Want: 0%
I don't like Elder Scrolls.

Final Destination Ver. 2 (Smash 4)

Abstain
I don't care and I couldn't give an accurate prediction.

Lara Croft prediction: 10%

Bubsy prediction: 2%

Nominations:
Viewtiful Joe x5

 

[Troykv]

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 5%

Eh... This is a long shot, but at least it's something I can see happening thanks to the colaboration stuff from the port.

Want: 50%

I'm okay with this.

Final Destination Ver.2

Chance: 50%

This will be considered, but unlike other themes, this is more... dispensable...

Want: 50%

It's nice, but I perfect the other FD themes

_________________________

Predictions:

Lara Croft: 10.5%

Bubsy: 1.3%

Nominations:

Neptune (Neptune/Neptunia Series) x5

 

[NintenRob]

Pretty meh day honestly

Skyrim
Chance 3%
I could see a trophy or a song. While third party don't normally get much without going all out. We did get Tetris and Baiten Kaitos songs and Rayman and Runner trophies. So it's possible I guess
Want 4%
I haven't played much of Skyrim but there's not much here that takes my fancy. I find the world and characters hideous. Maybe a song would be nice but hardly necessary.

Chance 57%
It's mostly filler and definitely not needed or even memorable. But more songs return then are cut. So it's more likely than not in my opinion
Want 30%
It's kinda average. I don't even know why we're rating it

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Predictions

Lara Croft, so we're finally here are we? I'll go 11% Thanks again to all who helped


And bubsy...... 0.7%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wow who cares, really just wow.
Skyrim’s one of the all time most important games, but Jesus if it doesn’t piss me off to have that kind of tokenism. It feels really half-assed to have a trophy thrown in like ‘hey, this exists and is sort of deserving to be in Smash but not really’. (Not that I would even want Dovakhiin to be in Smash either way).

Abstaining from everything

Lara Croft prediction: Well it has to be higher than freaking Steve so 29%. That’s on you people.

Bubsy prediction: 3%
I’m really not seeing the point to these joke days but hey, if someone’s having fun...

Nominations: Prince SableX1
Mach RiderX4

 

[NeonBurrito]

Skyrim Representation (trophy, character, music, anything)

Chance - 5%

Considering today is about just having anything from Skyrim show up, not just as a character, but in absolutely any form, I feel like it certainly isn't out of the question. I can easily see Bethesda just throwing Nintendo a Dragonborn model or something of the sort, and having it be a trophy, somewhat like Rayman and Commander Video in Smash 4. I really doubt it'd get anything more than a trophy though. Switch port was likely way too late for something on the scale of a character, a stage, or even an assist trophy.

The game also did pretty good in Japan from what I hear, especially for a western title, so it wouldn't be that out of place in terms of a worldwide scale. It's iconic enough, just the Switch port was probably too late to the party to get anything substantial.

Want - 50%

I'd be fine with Skyrim getting something like a trophy or even a song in Smash. It'd be a nice way to celebrate the recent collaborations between Nintendo and Bethesda. I'd rather not have Dragonborn in Smash, but I don't think it'll happen so it doesn't really affect my score.

[Song] Final Destination Ver. 2

Chance - 90%

I don't really know why they would cut it. It seems like a pretty popular song. I think a lot of the Brawl theme remixes came over to Smash 4, didn't they?

Want - ABSTAIN

I really don't care. The Smash 4 theme is probably my least favorite main theme out of all of the games, so if it does come back, I'll just turn it off in My Music.

Nominations:
[Veteran] Corrin x5

 

[wildvine47]

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 18% - If nothing else I could see a trophy or a song happening. It's a big deal of a game, was one of the first shown off for the Switch, and had a hefty influence on big Nintendo hit BOTW. I'd not be surprised to see a Dragonborn trophy pop up at the very least. But, at the same time, I can't see Bethesda really going the extra mile of lending Nintendo the rights just to have one of their flagship series show up in trophy form. The Rayman trophy is an oddity for a reason after all.

Want: 50% - Eh, I'm fine with it. Less ok with a playable character, but I'm not against trophies or music or even a stage. Though even if we were to get a character, there's worse third party options to pick than Dragonborn in the long run.

Final Destination Ver. 2

Chance: 95% - Pretty much all the Brawl remixes got kept in Smash 4, I'd expect the same here. This is a really weird thing to rate though, especially in our last week leading up to E3. Glad it's at least on a double day.

Want: 75% - I like the song quite a lot, it's great to fight to. I'll be bummed if it's gone but not heartbroken.

Predictions

Lara Croft: 11.11% - She's definitely got the iconicity chops, but isn't really tied super strongly to Nintendo, nor is she heavily requested. That could very well change in the future though. We've seen characters snowball in popularity before. Maybe Lara could be next.

Bubsy: 1.32% - I can't be the only one who thinks it's kinda dumb to rate a joke character this close to E3. I'd rather we double up on actually nominated characters just to widen our prediction net for who else could get revealed then, no matter how unlikely, instead of definite no-hoper jokes.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Buy Skyrim again

Chance: 30% (with DLC in mind)

Skyrim is a huge deal, getting constant rereleases, popularizing massive open world games, even inspiring Botw. (Correct me if I'm wrong) It's iconic enough that I wouldn't be suprised to atleast see it get a throphy.

Want: ABSTAIN

FD V2

Chance: 85%

Sakurai likes recycling Smash music, and the track does seem to be quite popular.

Want: 60%

It's okay but I'm primarily looking forward to this game's theme.

Lara Croft: 13.86%
Bubsy: 1.82%

Leon Kennedy x5

I wonder how Freddy Fazbear or Tracer or Teemo would do here. Those are laughably absurd predictions that only a child would make, but they're icons from popular games like Steve, so I guess they also have a better chance than Ridley.

Very low since:
1 None of them have appeared on Nintendo systems.

2 Their games are nowhere near Minecraft's international popularity.

I don't want Steve myself but I'd be delusional if I expected him to end up with a overall chance percentage below 10.
Don't make these dumb assumptions of us.

 

[Runic_SSB]

1 None of them have appeared on Nintendo systems.

Getting ported to a Nintendo console means nothing, especially when everyone else got it several years ago. No 3rd-party character has ever gotten in just because of a port.

2 Their games are nowhere near Minecraft's international popularity.

League of Legends has 25 million more players per month than Minecraft. Overwatch, while not as big as Minecraft, still has over 40 million players worldwide. There actually aren't any sales figures for any of the FNAF games, so I can't defend that.

Don't make these dumb assumptions of us.

It's really hard not to when you're talking about Steve from Minecraft being in Smash.

 

[andimidna]

All abstain at least for now

Lara Croft prediction: 16%
Not sure of any obvious signs, but still a solid pick
Bubsy prediction: 0.9%

x5 Eevee

 

[slambros]

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 75%
I'm sure it'll at least get a trophy.

Want: 100%
A trophy couldn't hurt, that much is for sure!

Final Destination Ver. 2

Chance: Abstain
Want: 100%

The more music, the merrier! Why would I not want that?

Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[DNeon]

Alright, it's been a fair while since I dropped into this.

Skyrim

Chance: 65%

A trophy or music (it became a pretty iconic soudtrack) are easy as hell. Peronally I think there's a VERY high chance it becomes a Mii Costume, and I don't even think Dovahkiin is that out there as a character option (though I'd give them a 10-15% max). Only reason this isn't in the 90s to me is because I'm not predicting for DLC.

Want: 100%

I like open world RPGs so naturally Skyrim would be pretty cool, but I'm not as attached to it as the 100s of rereleases would justify. That said the soundtrack, especially the openning would by hype as **** music to fight to. Only 100% and not 60-70% because it's such a wide category that yeah I'd be down for something from it.

FD v.2

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%

Who says no to optional music?

Lara Croft Prediction: 5.67%

Bubsy Prediction: 1.21%

Nominations:
**** it lets go
Master Chief x 5

 

[Opossum]

Triple abstaining and putting a Want of 100% toward FDv2. One of the few really good new songs.

Predicting a 12.3 for Lara, 2.3 for Bubsy
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Skyrim representation in any form

Chance: 20%
Let me just get this out there from the beginning, I don't think we're getting a skyrim character as playable at all. However, we MIGHT get an assist of some kind, but even then it seems a bit unlikely. Getting a regular trophy seems to be its best bet, and something that I'm pretty confident it will get in fact, but definitely nothing more.

Want: 1%
I really don't care for the Elder Scrolls series, so I already don't have a dog in this fight, but on top of that I really don't want any more third party characters being added unless it's either Doom Guy or Amaterasu, both aren't all that likely I'd say though. An assist would be fine I guess, and a regular trophy I wouldn't mind at all.


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Skyrim representation

Chance: 10%

Almost no shot of getting anything major. The port is pretty recent and thus far there hasn't been any strong demand for it for it that I know of. I don't expect anything minor either, but it's not impossible. It's fairly iconic, and we had stuff like the Raymon trophies last game, after all.

Want: 50%

This is really just for a trophy or something else minor. I don't want Skyrim to get a character or anything over a variety of other third parties, but minor content wouldn't bother me at all. I think that's all this will get anyway, so 50% it is.

Final Destination V2

ABSTAIN

I do not know how likely this song appearing would be. I also do not care.

Lara Croft prediction: 10.47%
Bubsy prediction: 0.46%

Nominations: Corrin x5

 

[Kotor]

Anything Skyrim

Chance: 10%
Want: Abstain

We were able to get a Rayman trophy so to get content from a non-Japanese company isn't impossible. As for what we could possibly get from Skyrim.... well we got Monster Hunter armor as part of the Mii Fighter DLC costume packs. I can sort of see something like that with the Dragonborn outfit. Never owned Skyrim. Todd would be pretty upset with me if he found out.

Final Destination V2

Chance: 95%
Want: Abstain

What a bizarre choice. It's not from a third party franchise so there's no crazy hurdles to go through to get that song. I have no real attachment to this particular song. It's kinda just there. It wasn't in Final Destination 3DS. I don't think as a choice in Smash Run either. It'll be buried among the sea of music that Smash Switch will have. I'm expecting we'll break 500, but I could see the total number break 600 if they're bold.

Nominations
Rowlet x5

 

[DaUsername]

Buy it
Chance: 5%
Todd might be desperate enough to ask for a trophy at the very least.
Want: N/A
FDV2
Chance: 95%
I don't see any reason for them to not bring it back.
Want: 99%
It's a good song.

Lara prediction: 7%
Bubsy prediction: 3%
Noms: Dr. Mario x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 5% - Skyrim is one of the best selling video games of all time, a part of one of the most famous video game series to boot. There's no doubt in my mind that if Bethesda was asked by Sakurai for some Skyrim stuff to put in Smash, they'd be all for it. However, I don't know if Sakurai really would, and I don't see Bethesda asking/pushing for Skyrim to be in Smash either.

Want: 0% - I love Skyrim, one of my favorite games ever, but I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties into Smash.


Final Destination V2 Music

Chance: 90% - It's music. Easy to port.

Want: 100% - It's music.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

According to this thread, the Minecraft guy has a better chance of making it into Smash Bros. than Chibi Robo, Ridley, Lyn, Professor Layton, Isaac, Banjo and Kazooie, Simon Belmont, Travis Touchdown, Jibanyan, Tom Nook, Arle Nadja, Daisy, Shantae, Phoenix Wright, Sylux, Skull Kid, Marx, Funky Kong, Dark Samus, Mipha, Dr. Eggman, Midna, Lip, Krystal, Andy, and Sora (along with a bunch of others). I wonder how Freddy Fazbear or Tracer or Teemo would do here. Those are laughably absurd predictions that only a child would make, but they're icons from popular games like Steve, so I guess they also have a better chance than Ridley.

I know right, they are laughably absurd predictions! Comparing the blocky face of the most influential game of the last decade to a bunch of one off Nintendo characters and comparably unknown third parties? None of the rest of the characters here come close to the amount of new players Steve would bring to the game. Only a child would misunderstand the amount of business sense that would make!

Anywho!

Skyrim Representation

Chance: 40%

I do not see us getting a playable character/stage/assist trophy/anything particularly noteworthy. But this is about any form of representation, and I could very easily see us getting some kind of trophy or Mii costume.

Want: Abstain

Never played it, don't particularly care one way or the other.

Final Destination v2: Double 100%

On both accounts, why not? This feels like a very silly thing to bother rating to me.

 

[CometX-ing]

the most influential game of the last decade to a bunch of one off Nintendo characters

Popular, sure. But I wouldn't say influential. It's not like the concept of crafting was never in a game before, and not many games are copying the block aesthetic. Plus, popular or not, first parties by default have a better shot than third parties and Japanese third parties have a better shot than western third parties due to how much easier it is to work with Japanese devs.

 

[Cycrum]

None of the rest of the characters here come close to the amount of new players Steve would bring to the game.

I completely forgot about that! If a Minecraft fan were to see Steve on the cover of Smash, they would probably be more inclined to buy it knowing that Minecraft, a game that they know and love, is in the game. It could steer some people away, but the amount of people drawn in will heavily outweigh those who decide not to buy it knowing Steve is in Smash.

Anyway...

Skyrim Representation

Chance: Abstain

No one knows if Sakurai had known about the Skyrim port for the Switch by the time the project plan was finalized and had time to plan representation for it in Smash accordingly. As such, I am abstaining.

Want: 90%

I have never played the game, but it has aged considerably well for a 2011 game. Its groundbreaking graphics and great gameplay that have impacted games like Breath of the Wild make it truly worthy of some representation in Smash.

Final Destination (ver. 2)

Chance: 90%
I am a little bit hesitant to give it such a high chance rating, especially since version 2's of any original song seldom come back for the next Smash, but music is pretty easy to port and it is far more popular than the original version. Because of this, this song is very likely to return.

Want: 100%
I absolutely want this to return! It is by far one of my favorite songs in Smash 4 just because of its high intensity and energy.

Predictions:
Lara Croft (finally!): 12.14%
Bubsy: 0.21%

Nominations:
All-Star Versus x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

the blocky face of the most influential game of the last decade

Which has absolutely nothing to do with Nintendo.

to a bunch of one off Nintendo characters

Yes, because we're talking about a Nintendo crossover game. Also, only three or four of those characters are one-offs.

and comparably unknown third parties?

Who have a relationship to Nintendo.

None of the rest of the characters here come close to the amount of new players Steve would bring to the game. Only a child would misunderstand the amount of business sense that would make!

All of the rest of those characters are related to Nintendo. Only a child would misunderstand the entire point of the game (I'm not copying that dumb meme face everyone stopped using a decade ago).

 

[skylanders fan]

skyrim represantation
chance and Want 1%
yeah nope. To late in development for much at all even a trophy. Could be a dlc charcter if,if they want to but thats what I'm predicitng. Also not really a fan of m rated stuff coming to Smash (including snake)

Final Destination music
chance and want 80%
music is easy to port and if they are using the engine of Smash 4 why not port the music. If its a new engine then maybe the could do new remixes but not counting on it.

nominating labo guy x5

predicting
lara at 4%
bubsy at 2%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Runic_SSB

This is a game of prediction. I can confidently say outside of Ridley and Sora who I feel the thread underrated, or potential last minute clones like Funky or Chrom, these ratings are decently accurate. If you honestly think that Minecraft, the second best selling video game of all time that is still relevant over a decade after it launched has no chance that you are flat out mistaken. Also keep in mind you like you cherrypick your evidence. It got ported to Nintendo systems unlike the other games you mentioned. Also, Steve is the fourth lowest character in Want so far. Outside of the joke characters he is second. Finally, Steve’s day ended two days ago. Further discussion of Steve from anyone will result in their scores and nominations being ignored for the day.

Finally, I have seen how some people were upset that joke characters were chosen over actual ideas. There were two reasons for this. First is aside from Corrin I did not think any of the higher nominated ideas would be at E3. No hate on Wonder Red but he doesn’t scream e3 reveal to me. Second of all I did this because it is fun when these characters are rated alongside a real choice. The reason Blue Bowsers day was so bland was it was a double day. Finally, I did this because I wanted to. I also did not want to go through and boost ideas or concepts that I thought would be interesting to discuss again like a rerate of the gen 7 mons or K. Rool or pushing Eevee up to the top. They weren’t nommed enough I had to let it be.