Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MrElectroG64]

Laura Croft

Chance: 3%
I guess anything is possible, but the likelyhood of this happening is really quite slim to none. I mean, who is asking for this? Laura Croft isn't even all that popular anymore. Even moreso, she uses a lot of guns for attacks that couldn't just be replaced with other things like snake could, so she's left with nothing for a moveset.

Want: 0%
you know, the usual: I've never played her games, nor do I care to. I also don't want any more third party characters unless they are either Doom Guy or Amaterasu, or both!


Bubsy

Chance: 0%
oh, come on. Do I really even have to explain myself? It's ****ing bubsy.

Want: 5%
Something devious inside me wants him to be in the game. He'd be the perfect character to add that would make everyone mad and go crazy, which would be great to see, considering he would still fit into smash somewhat well visually. That being said, my reasoning beyond that is the same as Laura's, so just see above.


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[MoonlitIllusion]

Lara Croft

Chance: 0%
Tomb Raider has nothing to do with Nintendo.

This is a straight up lie. Tomb raider had multiple games on the gamecube, wii, gba and gameboy. And says hi anyway.

Anyway,

Lara Croft:

Chance: 20%
Lara Croft is no doubt a video game icon and it'd be amazing to have her in to fight her fellow icons and as Square Enix's 3rd biggest franchise after Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest including Lara makes sense. However there's 3 major hurdles holding her back, 1) Her lack of familiarity in japan, I've heard her games do okay there but tomb raider is very much a western franchise and it shows. 2) Her use of realistic firearms, snake managed to get around this but you can't have Lara Croft without those iconic dual pistols and 3) Although she is now owned by a japanese publisher, she's a western created character and her developers are based in the US, contacting them and making sure she's properly represented is likely harder if sakurai can't meet with them face to face.

Another point against her is that Dragon Quest, which is also owned by square, is their actual second biggest franchise so including someone from that series could make more sense, especially since it's heavily popular in japan.

Want: 100%
I've loved Lara and the Tomb Raider games since I was a kid and I'd love to see her in. And although I love reboot Lara, I want the iconic old one with the tank, shorts and dual pistols.

Bubsy:
Chance: 1%
Why?

Want: 0%
Why?

 

[Troykv]

Lara Croft;

Chance and Want: Abstain

Well, she is popular, but she isn't japanese, but somehow now owned for japanese people... I'm not sure xDu

Bubsy

Chance and Want: 0%

Nah, no thanks, Bubsy exists mostly as a joke anyway. And it will be in that way always.

The only think I would like about him is that I actually found his voice funny XD (and I remember at least one version of him has Lani Minella voice.

____________

Predictions:

Cranky Kong: 14.3%
Brash: 1.4%

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x3
Neptune x2

 

[AlphaSSB]

Lara Croft

Chance: 5% - She's one of gaming's most famous female icons, and she has a tons of potential. However, I don't see her getting in unless her NA and EU ballot scores are high enough to warrant Sakurai going for her. I don't see her going too far with the JP ballot.

Want: 0% - I really enjoyed the new Tomb Raider games, and Lara is one of my favorite gaming characters in general. However, I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to Smash.


Bubsy

Chance: 1% - Anything is possible. Literally all I can say for the character.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to Smash.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Lara Croft:

Despite the impact she has in gaming history, I do not believe she will be happening. Her lack of notable ballot support makes it really hard for me to see her in. Perhaps when support becomes huge over time for Sakurai to notice during the Smash Switch hype period, I could see Lara with DLC. I just do not see her in the base game. I think it is far more likely that Sakurai will consider Japanese Square Enix third-parties like Sora and Erdrick before her.

x5 Balloon Fighter

 

[jamesster445]

Bubsy the Bobcat
Chance- 0%
Want- 0%

The fact that he got revived before Megaman makes me question humanity. Because his games were dumpster fires. The only reason Bubsy is remembered is so people can remember what NOT to do. There's no way he's coming to Smash, and as far as I'm concerned he shouldn't be coming back to anything.

Lara Croft
Chance- 50%
Want- 50%

So quick question, is this OG Lara, or reboot Lara? Regardless Lara is a gaming icon that has persevered throughout the years. Maybe Square can help get her in. I don't know and I don't really care.

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Tomb Raider

Chance: 30%
Lara is a gaming legend, and that can’t be taken away from her. She is also the likeliest character Square Enix would peg to represent them after Cloud (sorry Sora). Despite that, she does have some disadvantages, like being west-created, and the fact that we all want her to dual wield guns. Otherwise, she’s been in plenty Nintendo games so no obstacles there.

Want: 80%
In a game like Smash, where legends go to duke it out, we need to have Samus and Lara duel. Maybe not this game, but someday.

Fractured Furry

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

And tomorrow we’re getting two joke characters? Jeez...

Predictions:
Cranky 3%
Brash (dunno who that is): 1%

Nominations: Mach RiderX5

 

[Dee Dude]

Bubsy- Chance: 3%, Want: 11%

Would make excellent shock value, a purrfect punching bag and would have a pretty funny trailer for Smash but nah. :U

Lara Croft- Chance: 2%, Want: 0%

Can’t see her happening, I’m not sure how popular she or Tomb Raider is but nothing is impossible I’m sure.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Lara Croft

Chance- 10%
HUGE deal back in the day, and she still gets games today. However, seating is limited for 3rd parties, and since she os a Square character she has to fight Geno, Dragon Quest, etc. Icon status is about all her merits as it stands.

Want- 10%
Not big on Tomb Raider. Wouldnt get upset if she did get in, though.

Bubsy

Chance- 2%
Meme status is all he has. His whole sthick has been being mediocre.

Want- 5%
Id laugh at his inclusion. Then id pick a better character.

Cranky- 17.31%
Brash- 0.11%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[Deleted member]

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Dead franchise, and not interested.

Lara Croft

Chance: 25%
Want: abstain

She's the new basically.
A not so considered choice for Smash while she's easily one of the biggest icons in gaming on the same league as and .
Can't add much tho as I've yet to play a Tomb Raider game.


Noms:
Female announcer x5

Cranky Kong prediction: 12.74%
Brash the Bear prediction: 3.12%

 

[Troykv]

Day 86 - Lara Croft and Bubsy

Approved by @NonSpecificGuy

Welcome to Rate Their Chances! This is a reboot of the game played during Smash 4 and Smash 4 DLC Speculation.

How to Play
Each day there will be a focus on a specific character or concept for smash switch. We shall rate these characters both on how likely we view them and how much we desire them from 0-100%. When posting, you also can nominate characters to rate. Each poster is given five nominations per day. The list of nominations will be found in a post below. You also can potentially predict the chance score for the character that will be predicted next, which the closest guess will get an extra 5 noms. An exact guess will get 10 extra noms.

Rules
1. Characters must originate from a video game. It is preferred that they must have been featured on at least one Nintendo console.

2. -You're allowed to debate but please no flame wars. Also please refrain from non explanations, as a spirit of debate is encouraged. Posts lacking at least 2 sentences of reasoning will be invalid and your nominations will be ignored. Abstaining from a rating will not require reasoning, though it would be appreciated.

3. Please do not discuss a character after their day has ended. If you wish to discuss a character again start nominating them for a rerate, however please wait at least two weeks before renominating a character.

4. Please avoid counter votes. You are free to disagree but do not rate something negatively to be a jerk.

5. Explicit character deconfirmation means a character will not be rated again.

6. Any of the following veterans should not be discussed as it is likely that they will return.


Mario (Mario Bros.) Confirmed
Bowser (Mario Bros.)
Luigi (Mario Bros.)
Peach (Mario Bros.)
Donkey Kong (Donkey Kong)
Diddy Kong (Donkey Kong)
Link (The Legend of Zelda) Confirmed
Zelda (The Legend of Zelda)
Samus (Metroid)
Kirby (Kirby)
Fox (Star Fox)
Pikachu (Pokemon)
Pit (Kid Icarus)
Yoshi (Yoshi)
Captain Falcon (F-Zero)
Ness (Mother)
Wario (Wario)
Meta-Knight (Kirby)
King Dedede (Kirby)
Marth (Fire Emblem)
Ganondorf (Zelda)
Zero Suit Samus (Metroid)
Lucario (Pokemon)
Charizard (Pokemon)
Ike (Fire Emblem)
Olimar (Pikmin)
Villager (Animal Crossing)
Little Mac (Punch Out!)
Mr Game and Watch
Jigglypuff (Pokemon)

7. After the day ends, participants will have 60 minutes to get final late votes in. After that point votes will no longer be counted. Nominations will be counted until the new day begins.

8. Although you are encouraged to be creative with your posts, please make sure the chance and want scores and nominations are distinctly visible. If you are concerned about a basic format, see the example below.

Basic post model

Spoiler: sample

Megaman
90% Chance
He's a cool vet but he is third party and capcom can be dumb. However, cutting him would seem super weird given how much people love him.
100% Want
Thank god he was in 4. He is one of my favorites. Also the soundtrack is tight.

9. Starting 5/3/18, a character must have a support thread to be nominated. If you want to do a dumb character like Blue Bowser, then at least make a support thread.

Schedule for the next week
6/2 Steve
6/3 Game inactive, Site Maintenance
6/4 Excitebiker and Pyra/Mythra
6/5 Skyrim Representation and Music: Final Destination V2
6/6 Lara Croft and Bubsy
6/7 Cranky Kong and Brash the Bear
6/8 Gengar and Yarne/Owain Tag Team
6/9 Masked Link and B.B Bandit Trio

E3 WEEK SCHEDULE
6/10 Favorite Days of RTC so far
6/11 Nintendo E3 Predictions
6/12 Reactions and Cool Down Day
6/13 Satisfaction ratings of Inklings and any other Newcomers/Cut Veterans they show off
6/14 Top Four Most Overrated and Underrated Characters We Have Rated (No confirmed Characters or deconfirmed characters)
6/15 Top Two Most Overrated and Underrated
6/16 Overrated and Underrated Day 2

Top Ten of Chance

Top Ten of Want

​

The Top Ten Pictures will remain broken?

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Lara Croft Chance: 25%

She's a pretty famous icon of gaming from a highly successful franchise. However she's also got competition from other Square characters (Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts, heck even Geno, if to a lesser degree) and frankly I never feel safe rating third parties highly. The circumstances for one to join the roster are special and unique, and requires negotiations between Nintendo and the company who owns the character. Either Sakurai or someone from Square would have to bring up the idea of the character in Smash, then from there both parties would have to agree to making it happen. We have no way of knowing whether this has or will happen for Lara Croft or any other third party characters yet. All Lara does have going for her to make this happen is her fame and status as an icon. Which doesn't make her unlikely, either, but there's really no reason why we can reasonably give her a high chance when all we currently have to go off of is her fame, followed byassumptions and speculation that would largely be baseless.

In short, we know next to nothing that we can determine makes Lara likely to join the roster, aside from, once again, her fame. As a result, rating her is difficult, but I think that a more reasonable score would be a lower one, because we do know that third parties get into Smash only on special conditions. Plus, as I previously stated, she's also got plenty of competition from the company that owns her IP.

Want: 50%

I have no connection to Tomb Raider, although is is yet another series of games I'm curious about. Perhaps one day I'll check the games out and play them for myself. Until then, I'm neither against nor rooting for Lara.

Bubsy Chance: 0%

I don't normally like to hand out zeroes, but this character is the star of a largely failed and borderline dead franchise, one that a lot of people have come to detest, and his positive reception doesn't compare to the likes of people who loathe the franchise or at least see it as being mediocre. The character himself isn't particularly popular, either. His first game had moderate success, but it was also his only game that saw any real success, and it was released a very long time ago (back in 1993). The few sequels that followed shortly thereafter were mostly failures, and Bubsy 3D is rightfully considered one of the worst games of all time to the point of widespread infamy. The Woolies Strike Back, Bubsy'ss first game since 3D, came out last year, and released to mere mixed reviews.

Really, people once thought this guy and his games were gonna be the next Mario; the next Sonic. He hasn't even come close. His franchise has hit so many lows at this point, and with the company's one attempt at revival in over two decades receiving mixed reviews at best, why on Earth would anyone look to this character or his franchise and say "This is a character with potential, from a influential franchise of gaming, and he's someone who a lot of fans want" or any one of such things or any combination of them? I don't see any single good reason why Sakurai or any of the other devs would think to bring this character to the Smash roster. Bubsy has absolutely nothing going for him that any past third parties did, far, far from it. And hell I would even argue some Indie third parties are way more likely than him, largely because they are at least from successful franchises, especially when compared to the likes of this bob cat's games.

Want: 0%

Not even for the sake of memes. There's no good excuse to have this character in Smash and I can say he's one of the few that would genuinely tick me off if the snowball's chance in hell he had of getting into it came to pass.

Cranky Kong Prediction: 10.09%

Brash the Bear Prediction: 7%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bubsy- Chance: 3%, Want: 11%

Would make excellent shock value, a purrfect punching bag and would have a pretty funny trailer for Smash but nah. :U

Lara Croft- Chance: 2%, Want: 0%

Can’t see her happening, I’m not sure how popular she or Tomb Raider is but nothing is impossible I’m sure.

So Bubsy is likelier than Lara Croft? That’s what you’re saying?

 

[Opossum]

Lara Croft (take a shot for how many people misspell her name as Laura)

Chance: 8%
Somewhat lower than my other third party scores due to lower demand. She's definitely got the history though, and being owned by Square Enix gives her a foot in the door. Plus she's gaming's most iconic leading lady, and that's a great achievement to have.

Want: 100%
Hell yeah. She more than deserves it.

Double zeroes for Bubsy. I normally hate the "he's just a meme" reasoning, but in his case it is absolutely true.

Predicting a 14% for Cranky
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Lara Croft

Chance: 15%
Want: 30%

She's certainly an iconic character in Video Gaming and is clearly one of the top runnings for 2nd SE rep. But unfortunately I never notice any requests or even see any ballot support for her which hurt her. But Ryu managed to get in despite not being requested himself as well. So who knows. Not that much of a fan of her though.

Bubsy..........

Chance: 0.01%
Want: 0%

That 0.01 is just me being generous here. Simply put, he's a laughing stock in the Gaming Community. It's even a miracle he even got a new game after the complete disaster that was Bubsy 3D.

Cranky Kong Prediction: 8.79%
Brash Prediction: 1.81%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Koopaul]

Lara Croft
Chance: 0.5%
For those of you who say Lara Croft is a huge icon. Let me remind you that Arle Naja is also a huge icon (in Japan) and Jibanyan is also a huge icon (in Japan). And yet those were still rated very low. Why? Because in the West they aren't seen as anything too special. So think about Lara for a second. I'm sure her relationship in Japan is the same as Yo-Kai Watch in the West.

It's there. It does okay. But it is not this huge iconic franchise like it is where it comes from. And for that reason Lara is very unlikely.

Want: 0%
There are very few 3rd parties I want.

Bubsy
Double Zeroes

Predictions for Cranky Kong
Chance: 14%
Want: 30%

Nominations
Barbara ×3
Dr. Wright ×2

 

[Dee Dude]

So Bubsy is likelier than Lara Croft? That’s what you’re saying?

I mean...the former did have a revival so.....

 

[Opossum]

I mean...the former did have a revival so.....

And Tomb Raider had one that was actually a critical and commercial success.

 

[slambros]

Lara Croft

Chance: 1%
She'd have a higher chance if her games were still in the older style and if her games were still on Nintendo systems. Instead, Lara Croft has entered a different AAA sphere where no third party character has become playable from as of yet.

Want: 25%
She's an icon and a great character. I have no idea how she'd fit, but she'd be a welcome addition.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Things might've been different if the games had been developed properly. But alas. They weren't.

Nominations:
Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Esquelen]

Lara Croft

Chance: 5%
She is an iconic character in video games, if it were still as popular as in the past and was in more consoles than Nintendo could see, if Cloud is, why not her?

Want: 25%
I never played any of his games but I would like to see another video game icon more in Smash.

Bubsy:
Double Zero

Spoiler

 

[VexTheHex]

Lara Croft

Chance - 12%
She had her share of fame and glory, but she still is a 3rd party facing competition from more beloved characters. It's also likely her lower popularity in Japan and Western creation will hinder her.
Want - 0%
I have very little connection to the series. My main issue however is that she seems boring. She doesn't stand out in any way from a normal everyday person. Even Travis has some styling done to him that makes him look fun. Lara is just realism... bland design and boring colors. In no way. shape, or form could I say seeing her would make me think awesome or cool. I'd probably just shrug and ignore her addition in general as something just there.

Bubsy - Abstain
I'm going to stay out of complete joke characters, especially when I don't know them.

Nominations 5x Monster Hunter

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Lara Croft
Chance: 8% - She's popular as a character, holds a gaming legacy; and her company already has a character in Smash. That said, she's a Western character and other Square characters hold more relevancy today and are better general fits for Smash.
Want: 15% - I never was big into Tomb Raider. Sora would be my pick for next Square Enix.

Bubsy
Chance: 0% - He's Western, no one likes him, he doesn't really have relevancy in the gaming world of today, he's not a gaming icon, and he's a relic of a bygone age.
Want: 0% - After about another 80 characters, maybe he could make an appearance as a joke character, IF he gets another game.

Prediction: Cranky Kong
Chance: 4.21%
Want: 41.86%

Prediction: Brash the Friggin' Bear
Chance: 0.32%
Want: 2.11%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

ribbit ribbit

 

[Runic_SSB]

This is a straight up lie. Tomb raider had multiple games on the gamecube, wii, gba and gameboy. And says hi anyway.

I explicitly said why Cloud doesn't count in this same post. Also, I admit I didn't do my homework. However, after looking into it, I can still safely say that her connection to Nintendo is very small. There were only 3 Nintendo exclusives, all for portable consoles, and the last one was pretty poorly received. Of the multi-plat games, Legend was a last-minute port handled by a 3rd party, and the Wii version of Underworld was a buggy mess. Not to mention she hasn't had a game on a Nintendo console in almost a decade. I'll bump my rating up to a 5%, though, because she at least has some Nintendo exclusive games.

 

[Sid-cada]

Lara Croft

Chance - 4.5% - As popular as she is among the general public, there is relatively little demand for her among the smash populace. However, she is notable more western focused. Compared to, say, Dragon Quest, I'm not certain she can go head to head with her compettion among her own company, let alone others.

Want - 25% - Meh. Other third parties interest me more.


Bubsy the Bobcat

Chance - 0% - Bubsy is dead. The only reason he was revived was that the company responsible was noted for reviving other dead franchies and planed to close their doors, but felt obliged to do it to the most infamous among them. Otherwise, he is practially a laughing-stock among the gaming comunity.

Want - 0% - I can't think of a positive about him. He'd litteraly be a waste of a slot in my eyes.



Prediction

Cranky Kong - 4.24% - Something maybe?

Brash the Bear - 0.08% - He's an injoke only among us.


Nominaitons

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Top Ten Pictures will remain broken?

Yeah, I forgot who the original one who made them was, need to get them fixed or get new ones.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Lara Croft

Chance: 5%
She is third party, and competing with many other SE characters I'm sure nya. She's an icon nyapparently, so maybe she could be an AT or trophy nya?

Want: 25%
Never played Tome Raider nya, so she has nyo meaning to me nya. She could be interesting mew? I never really hear much nyabout her nya.

Bubsy
Chance: 0%
He is dead nya. Dead as a doornail nya. Dead as the body I have buried in my yard nya. When Bubsy happens, Blue Bowser will be confirmed the very next day nya. I guarantee nya.

Want: 0%
Bubsy as our kitty character in smash nya? ...... Much as I'd love a kitty in smash, I'm gonya say nyo thanks to this thing pretending to be a bobcat or whatever mew. I'd much rather have a cat pokemon or Chen mew~ "Bubsy is coming to smash!" "Cat lovers rejoice!" Words spoken 3 seconds before I'd drill a hole in my head to remove the filth that just entered my memory nya. If nyu support neko genocide, this character is for nyu.

Nyominations
Eevee: x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Lara Croft chances: 14%
She's without a very successful and famous character, and I could imagine her fame as a reason to include her in Smash; Tomb Raider is a big deal after all. However, I believe said fame exsist mostly in the West, as far as I'm aware her popularity isn't that strong in Japan. Being owned by a company that already has a character in Smash also helps her.

Lara Croft want: 28%
She really isn't one of the video game characters I'm the most familiar with at a personal level. I however always have been aware of her popularity, and she looks like an appropriate choice on star power alone. I'm just not extremely interested in seeing her in Smash.

Rate Their Chances, joke character special bonus edition, day 1: double zeroes
Although I'm expecting third-party newcomers in this new Smash, I'm really confident on no one in particular, so rather I give relatively low scores to a bunch of them with the expectation that their cumulated chances means we'll likely get at least one of them. As I said Lara Croft might be one of those third-parties who can reasonably pretend to stand a chance, but Bubsy sure isn't. His 2D games are mostly unremarkable in the grand scheme of 16-bit video games, and Bubsy 3D is at the bottom of the barrel of 3D platformers when it comes to quality. This made Bubsy a meme of some sort, as a symbol of failed platforming mascots of the 90s. He recently got a new game whose purpose basically was an attempt to ironically revive a burried character, which I expected to be rated as average at best, and a quick Google research confirms that none of the tests in the first page give him more than half the maximum score (not US Google though, maybe it's not the same in different languages), so I have no reason to believe than the general consensus about this game is anything other than what I initially expected or worse. There are overall no redeeming qualities that would make Bubsy a serious contender considered by Sakurai.

Bubsy is an undeserving character for Smash and whatever funny factor in including him would be largely insufficient to make up for how undeserving he is. I like to see myself as being more open-minded for this Smash than I was during the Smash 4 DLC era, but not so open-minded I'll seriously consider anything.

Cranky Kong prediction: 15.38%
Brash the Bear prediction: 0.00%

Nominating:
Concept: Battlefield form stages x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Lara Croft Chance: 10%
She's undeniably a gaming icon, but she wasn't requested much back during the time when it mattered, if at all. And I don't see her suddenly becoming a highly requested character for DLC either.

Want: 50%

Bubsy Chance: 0%
... Do I really have to say it? He's a genuinely irrelevant character. Basically no one likes the guy, nonetheless wants him in Smash. He stands literally no chance.

Want: 5%
I'm only giving him that five instead of a zero because he's so bad he's actually really funny. He'd undeniably be an awful character to include, but a part of me would still find it too amusing to hate him entirely.

Cranky Kong Prediction: 15%
Brash The Almighty Legend Bear Prediction: 0%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[smash puffle]

Bubsy
Chance: 5%
I mean, it's frickin Bubsy, no one really likes him unironically, but at the same time, he's iconic for being THE bad platforming mascot of the 90s.

Want: 110%
Oh boy. Imagine. He is already considered a joke, so making HIM the joke character in this game would be the most amazing thing. He would be the ultimate joke character in video game history. He would represent bad games in general and it would remind people that video games are meant to be fun, and not a politic/religious kind of thing where everyone gets mad at a piece of media like a PG rated video game. He would fit perfectly in Smash.
His main gimmick would be his voice. He would not shut up while in the battlefield and will keep players annoyed and wanting to KO him quickly, leading up to being careless while fighting him, giving Bubsy the chance to outsmart the opponent.
I know I'm thinking too deeply with this, but it's something that's been on my mind as of late.

 

[FrozenRoy]

Chances - Lara Croft: 4%

She is fairly popular and somewhat iconic character who has a noticeable western fanbase. That is where the good points of Lara's chances begin and end. She isn't especially popular in Japan, her developers are primarily US developed even if she is under Square's header, Square would put in about 20 Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy characters before a Tomb Raider character, not to mention something like Kingdom Hearts. Or, hell, at that point even Geno. Also arguably a "realistic firearm" issue, but I feel Sakurai is willing to try and get around it. I would be heavily surprised if she got in.

Want - Lara Croft: 18%

Eeeehh? Having a female gaming icon in would be cool, but I've never been into Tomb Raider in any way, and in terms of fun sets there's a lot better options for sets, including for kickass females. I wouldn't be upset, but the hype would mostly be in the sense of her being somewhat iconic.

Chances - Bubsy: 1%

If Sakurai is feeling retro and goofy, Bubsy could get in, I could definitely see him being included as a kind of comedy rival. The problem is literally everything else suggests he will not get in. But if Sakurai really goes hard on nostalgia...

Chances - Bubsy: 100%

air. control. to. the. maximum.

Predictions

Cranky Kong: 15.5%
Brash the Bear: 3%

Nomination

5x 2B

 

[Smasher 101]

Lara Croft

Chance: 5%

Tomb Raider has been very successful, and as a result Lara Croft is quite possibly the most iconic female lead in the history of video games, so she does have a small chance. And Square Enix has already had some content, so there's that. I think what ultimately makes her unlikely to me is the fact that she's more Western, the fact that she's not really as requested as a good amount of other third parties, and her competition from Square Enix itself such as Geno and Dragon Quest. Again though, it's not completely impossible.

Want: 50%

I actually obtained the first four Tomb Raider games a couple of years ago and have yet to play them. I probably need to change that.

As of now I don't have much connection to her and I usually prefer a bit more Nintendo connection than what Lara has, but in this case she's so much of an icon that I can't say I'd be annoyed to see her.

Bubsy

DOUBLE ZEROES

Generally won't bother explaining for joke choices but since he's gotten some non-zeroes in chance I'll do it today. I mean...yeah, I generally don't think giving a 0% in chance to a "notable" third party is ever a good idea, but in his case, lol this is never happening. In all fairness he didn't start out that bad, but it was never a massive success or anything, and was really just kind of there until Bubsy 3D became known as one of the worst games ever and pretty much killed him off. He got a revive recently but it didn't really do anything to change his status, he's really only requested as a joke. In the rather large sea of more popular and/or legendary third party choices, I can't see a single outcome that ends in Sakurai deciding that including Bubsy over any of them is a good idea.

As for want I'm not interested in a joke character wasting a third party slot. Sorry Bubsy, but you can go away.

Cranky Kong prediction: 18.48%
Brash prediction: 2.01%

Nominations: Corrin x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Lara Croft want: 0% (1-10*)

Her moveset doesn't seem that compelling. Pickaxe and pistols? Plus I feel like Tomb Raider is iconic for her big boobs, which would bother me a little bit in Smash.

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Erureido]

I can't say I can give an accurate score for Lara Croft despite being well aware about her fame, so I'm just going to double abstain for today.

Bubsy

Chance and Want:

Regarding Chance:

He comes from a series that is infamously panned. On top of that, he doesn't have much popularity when it comes to Smash.

Regarding Want:

Do I need to explain why I'm opposed to this? I just don't see the appeal at all, and even if he can be added as a joke character, there are better choices for that.

------

Predictions

Cranky Kong (Donkey Kong): 22.56%

Being playable in Tropical Freeze does do him favors, but competition with the likes of K. Rool and Dixie Kong hold him back.

Brash the Bear (Donkey Kong): 0.34%

Another joke character?

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[DaUsername]

Lara Croft
Chance: 5%
She's a well-known character, but not really that popular in the context of Smash, and there's several other SE characters that would most likely get in before her.
However, happened so I guess anything is possible.
Want: 1%
I never really got in to the Tomb Raider series. I'd rather have Geno.

Bubsy
Chance: 0.01%
It's Bubsy. Do I really need to elaborate on this?
Want: 1%
One percent just because the memes would be great if he got in.

Cranky Kong prediction: 15%
Brash the Bear prediction: 3%
Noms: Nikki x15

 

[wildvine47]

Ooooh extra noms! Don't mind if I do...

Lara Croft

Chance: 15% - She's a huge third party icon, is owned by the already-onboard Square Enix, and carries the unique distinction of being potentially THE most iconic female third party character, with her only real competition being Resident Evil's Jill Valentine. However, there's still a lot of things that knock her down a peg.

First of all, her popularity and iconicity isn't as strong in Japan as it is elsewhere, which makes sense for a character who originated in the West. Though, to her credit, she is now squarely (hehe) the property of a Japanese third party company. Second, she's not really got a strong Nintendo presence. Sure she's gotten a few exclusives over the years, but she's definitely not an honorary Nintendo icon ala Megaman. Third, her company of ownership, Square, has plenty of characters to donate, with Geno, other FF characters, and a Dragon Quest rep all being strong competition. Finally, and most damningly, she's not really a very popular choice for a new Smash character. Until this game's prerelease period, I don't think many even considered her an option. She definitely feels like a choice that will only snowball from here, but for now it feels a bit too early for her to have a legitimate shot.

Want: 58% - She'd be a great pick for a third party rep, but I've never really had a particular attachment to the series, and there's plenty of third parties I'd rather see like Rayman, Simon Belmont, Crash, and others. Once some of those guys start rolling in, she'll definitely move up the list, but for now? She gets just a bit more than 50%.

Bubsy

Chance: 1% - Literally the definition of a joke character, and there's no way Sakurai would waste a precious third party slot on a joke like Bubsy. Disappointing that we're really doing these unfunny jokes the week before E3 of all things. You think we'd want to get as many characters in as we could, especially when there's legitimate contenders like Wonder Red, Kamek, Tingle, and Lloyd Irving who we could be rating instead. It doesn't even make sense from a simplicity angle, because TCT~Phantom still has to do the same amount of work whether we're rating a joke character or a real one. Sigh.

Want: 0% - Sakurai shouldn't waste a third party slot on a joke. Just like we shouldn't waste a potential RTC double day on one.

Predictions

Cranky Kong: 19.81% - K. Rool and Dixie rule the day in the DK category, but Cranky is a definite underdog contender that could surprise, either by beating one to the punch or by being an unprecedented third newcomer. Given Sakurai's poor treatment of the DK franchise up to this point though, I kind of doubt it.

Very Definitely Funny and Worthwhile Joke Bear: 1.11% - :/

Nominations

Scorpion x 10

 

[Troykv]

Bubsy

Chance: 1% - Literally the definition of a joke character, and there's no way Sakurai would waste a precious third party slot on a joke like Bubsy. Disappointing that we're really doing these unfunny jokes the week before E3 of all things. You think we'd want to get as many characters in as we could, especially when there's legitimate contenders like Wonder Red, Kamek, Tingle, and Lloyd Irving who we could be rating instead. It doesn't even make sense from a simplicity angle, because TCT~Phantom still has to do the same amount of work whether we're rating a joke character or a real one. Sigh.

I think it's a bit late to fix the schendule, because it was set in stone, and he would need some kind of agreement to avoid conflicts between other nominated characters.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lara Croft
Chance: 8% - Despite being one of the biggest gaming icons ever, she seems to get very few requests to be in Smash compared to other Square characters like Sora and Geno. Her lack of popularity in Japan doesn't help her much either.
Want: 40%

Double zeroes for the cat that nobody likes.

Cranky prediction: 14%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Lara Croft

Chance: 15%
Has a long history and plenty of fame, but almost all Tomb Raider games worth talking about have been off Nintendo systems, and haven't exactly done the game industry any real favors. Lara's influence is more multimedia-based as well, edging her a little closer to Digimon in that people know her somewhat more for her cinematic appearances than her game ones.

Want: 10%
Honestly, pretty questionable choice for me. The gameplay of her games has never, ever been the standout topic of discussion, and the stories were never really worth writing home about either. It feels kind of like picking Mortal Kombat to represent fighting games - you wouldn't be picking them for their mechanics. Would they really be representing the game, or just the ancestor of attractive women with guns in video games?

Also, we'd be putting her in before Crash Bandicoot, and I don't think I could accept something like that happening.


Bubsy

Chance: 0.1%
What'd he ever do, besides make people shake their heads at the state of the industry? He's not even sad enough to parody being a platformer cash-in properly.

Want: 0%
Don't we have anyone better to think about?


Predictions:
Cranky Kong: 18%
Brash the Bear: 1.2%

Nominations:
Takumi x10

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Lara Croft
Chance 25%
Want 75%

Bubsy
Chance 2%
Want 0%

It’s kind of weird to me that people are rating Lara, a gaming icon, lower than Bubsy. I think she makes sense on the basis of her being a gaming icon alone. She’s a much bigger name than several 3rd parties already in, and I’d like to see the showdown between her and Samus (two iconic women). However I don’t see too many people requesting her for some odd reason.

Bubsy seems less likely because he’s a smaller name and more gimmicky and meme-y.

x5 Arcade Bunny

 

[Cycrum]

Lara Croft

Chance: 15%
Lara Croft is extremely iconic, has some history with Nintendo, and owned by Square Enix, which has already allowed one of their characters to be used in Smash. She has some moveset potential with her bow, climbing axe, and grappling hook, but her moveset potential is severely hampered with the likelihood of her being able to use her guns in Smash being extremely limited. However, she was western-created, making it much more difficult for Sakurai to talk to her creators regarding her in Smash. She is also not very well-known in Japan, which means that she is much less likely than many other third party characters from getting into Smash who are well-known there. Also, she was only on a few lesser known Tomb Raider games on Nintendo consoles and not any massive successes. She also faces competition from other possible Square Enix reps like Geno and a Dragon Quest rep (which basically has the inverse situation of Lara Croft when it comes to notoriety).

Want: 85%
I've never played Tomb Raider, but she seems cool and her arsenal would be fun to utilize as well in Smash. I would definitely like to see her against Samus as well as they are both gaming icons who both revolutionized female representation in video gaming.

Bubsy

Chance: 0%
A failed mascot who is not iconic at all. Sakurai would not waste time considering him.

Want: 0%
Hard pass. I would not want him to get in over any third-party character actually worthy of getting into Smash.

Predictions:
Cranky Kong: 16.97%
Brash the Bear: 0.88%

Nominations:
All-Star Versus x5