Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Skyblade12]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 3%

Yeah, I don't buy any of the arguments for him getting in. The only reason he's even on the speculation list is because Yacht Club shelled out for an amiibo, and his game released and was massively popular around the time Smash 4 released. His fifteen minutes of fame in the West was already dead by the time the game released in Japan, and even if he had some people looking at him from the ballot, I don't think they'd have missed that this "game changing retro character who represents everything that was gaming in the 8 bit era" was completely forgotten about in a year and a half. When was the last time you heard anyone online freaking out about how amazing Shovel Knight was, or how much they're looking forward to the next DLC that may eventually be released? The original game got a lot of buzz. Plenty of people didn't even notice the release of Specter of Torment. The character is dead, the game is released, it's gotten it's hype, and it's over. He was featured in plenty of other indie games as such a wonderful cameo character. And that didn't do much of anything. It may be great for Yacht Club if he gets in, but Nintendo has absolutely no reason to add him to Smash.

Want: 10%

With so many other characters to put in, he is not high on my list, and I would be kind of annoyed if he got in considering the characters who have not made it yet.

 

[Deleted member]

One of my favorite tracks in gaming.

Butt Butt

Chance: Abstain

Want: 100%
Shovel Knight is one of my favorite games of all time, and Shovel Knight could easily translate into Smash. He has so much potential.

Marx x5

 

[Deleted member]

The 8-bit references galore

Chance: 45%
He admittedly has the best chances to get included among all indie characters, thanks to his amiibo and to his game being released on Nintendo platforms (and Windows) first.

Want: 40%
I'm rather indifferent to him. I still have to play his game, and I'd much, much prefer to see Shantae if we had to have only one indie character.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Zelda newcomer prediction: 42.7%

 

[MasterWarlord]

Shovel Knight Chance - 3%: People are vastly overestimating an indie character that would be in a nobody in Japan just because the makers of the game shelled out cash for an Amiibo. The only reason he would ever be considered is the ballot, and I doubt he beat as many 3rd parties as people are suggesting he did.

Shovel Knight Want - 10%: He's a decent enough generic platformer protagonist, I just don't think indies should be in Smash.

Predict Zelda Newcomer 45%

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Knight of the Shovels

Chance: 20%
Want: 20%

No chance - this is a dead franchise. All of his games are old by now, and there hasn’t been a new one in ages.

Oh wait...that’s just the design. Retreaux - shorthand for “the peak of video gaming was back in the early 90s, and simply by cutting back on graphics, it is demonstrably a better game” or “we’re not able to keep up with the times”

I’m really not a fan of the classic hipster idea of “lol let’s make it look older becuz only old things are real art and new stuff is by definition trash.” I wasn’t really into games in the 8- and 16-bit eras because I couldn‘t really get into it then. Same now. This could be hands down the greatest video game of all time, and I wouldn’t be able to get past the art style. Also, I’m not a fan of platformers since my go to is an RPG I can lose myself in and play for 100+ hours and all but forget my real name since I’m too busy lost in Hyrule/Tamriel/Thedas/the year 2277.

Essentially like Megaman, but without the iconic status. And even Megaman’s got some games welcoming him into the modern age.

He’s got a design that would fit into Smash, and he’s even got an amiibo to go with it. But still a third party who is not majorly iconic. I think he’s got the best chance of the indies, but I’m not a fan of throwing open the floodgates for third parties in Smash in general. Sure there are some I like and I’d put in because I’m hypocritical like that, but I’m not at all going to be broken up if they’re not - they don’t belong here. I think 3rd parties are great DLC, and there are at least two major 1st parties who need to be in before any third parties.

At least this one would only make me roll my eyes instead of be annoyed if he got in, so it’s something.

Now I have a lot of analysis to prep for tomorrow...

Prediction: 73.9%
Nomination: Mewtwo x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

The day has finally come! FOR SHOVELRY!
​

Shovel Knight Chance 30%

Shovel Knight is an interesting character to consider, and in my opinion, is in a rather unique position as a possible contender for Smash.

Shovel Knight is the playable protagonist of a retro 2D platform game of the same name. The game has sold remarkably well overall, and that includes the Wii U and 3DS versions. Keep that in mind; the game not only managed to get on a Nintendo platform, but two Nintendo platforms, and that's just earlier releases. More recently, it's seen a Switch release as well. On top of all that, Shovel Knight even has his own Amiibo. It's perfectly reasonable to say that the strongest things Shovel Knight has going from him aside from popularity, which is something a lot of characters have anyway (to varying degrees) are his and Yacht Club's good relations with Nintendo, and the success the game has had on Nintendo platforms.

That said, Shovel Knight's chances remain considerably low not only because he's an Indie character, but a third-party one at that. We've never had an Indie character in Smash, so his inclusion, like Shantae's, would be unprecedented. For the time being, believing any Indie character is unlikely to get in Smash is still a well educated guess.

Also, for the most part, third-parties apparently to have to be "legendary" in order to get into the series. To that, I have to bring up Bayonetta . Sure, she and her franchise are pretty dang popular, no question about that, but when you compare Bayo to longtime, worldwide famous icons like Sonic, Mega Man or Pac-Man, I'd hardly call her "legendary". This is, if nothing else, an indication that there can be some exceptions to this supposed rule. Heck, we don't even know if it's a rule that's going to stay true for the next game. Much like DLC, I think that trying to figure out how third-parties are going to be handled in the next game is going to be beyond difficult. We just don't have enough information on the game yet to make any relatively safe bets.

I really want to say that Shovel Knight making numerous guest appearances in other games boosts his chances a little bit, but I can't. There's really no good reason why Sakurai would seriously take random guest appearances in unrelated games into consideration here.

That being said, all in all, I think Shovel Knight is by far the most likely Indie character we could see among the newcomers in the next game. Perhaps that's not saying much, given that no other Indies have high chances either, but with the game and it's developers being highly successful and very much on good terms with Nintendo, and the game still being fairly fresh and in it's prime right now, this is probably about as perfect of an opportunity to get into Smash as Shovel Knight is gonna get. Now's the time. Will he break some new ground? I wouldn't count on it, but don't dismiss the idea, either. There's much more going in the little guy's favor than any other Indie character out there, even more than Shantae, I'd argue.

Want: 95%

Hell yes! I'd like to mention that I got Shovel Knight as a Birthday gift from a good friend of mine. The game worked it's magic on me rather quickly, and I can firmly say it's now one of my favorite video games. It's just so fun and charming. It feels old with it's graphics and 8bit sounds, but at the same time feels new, modern and timeless. I'll admit to getting ticked off at the game a number of times, but that's just how I am with some video games (which I'm not proud of, mind you, but I digress; back to Shovelry). it's a difficult game, I won't lie, but where's the fun without a respectably good challenge? Beating those tough levels and boss fights feels absolutely satisfying, and when you get the hang of the gameplay, ti's a lot more fun. It's a really fantastic game, nostalgia factor or not (though it certainly helps add to the charm).

Shovel Knight himself is a character I'd have tons of fun playing in a Smash game. His standard abilities in his source material are pretty minimal, but he gets a lot of other abilities and weapons in his arsenal later in the game,so it's not like he'd be terribly basic as a Smash character. As long as he offers something new and fun to Smash, I simply couldn't say no to the little guy. It'd bring a lot of really great songs and surely a great new stage into the game, as well. With Shovel Knight's rich soundtrack and atmosphere, you can't bring him in while leaving out songs and a stage. Of all third-parties I could have in Smash, he's currently the one I want the most. I enjoy the game too much and the character is loads of fun in both gameplay and personality. The only reason my want score for him isn't 100% is because I'm not optimistic enough on his chances, so my disappointment with him not being on the roster would be greatly lessened knowing he's not that likely to get in to begin with. Still, I think I've made it clear by now that I adore the game. I'd be overjoyed if the character actually managed to make it into Smash Switch.

Zelda Newcomer Prediction: 46%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 75%
I'm assuming indie games are going to become a more recognized area this time around, and I'll admit there's little evidence supporting this. Under that assumption, I see the merits he has so I think he has a fair chance to be added.

Want 0%

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[Shinuto]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 10% - With how I put Shantae at 20% in regards to ALL other newcomers, I think that a lot of people are VASTLY overestimating SK's chances, the amiibo doesn't really hold much considering YCG had to make the request towards Nintendo and well other 3rd parties have one too like Monster Hunter and Dark Souls, and both have been around a lot longer than Shovel Knight

His game is really good but its being kept afloat in the proverbial spotlight solely due to the expansions and campaigns that are taking their sweet time coming out, Yacht Club Games has done NOTHING non Shovel Knight related in nearly 4 years since they began with his game and SK has no foreseeable sequel being hinted at in the works at all. He has moveset potential and all but he's simply too young of a series/game, no real legacy or history Nintendo or not, and is basically just a minor league one hit wonder right now.

Honestly, given how much art and stuff I've been seeing recently from Japan with Shantae, if any indie is going to get in as unlikely as I believe it to be, it's going to be her.

Want: - 80% Cool character and game, just needs far more time under his armor so to speak.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 4% - The fact that he’s not popular in Japan alone is enough to completely decimate his chances. I know that could be overlooked with Nintendo owned IPs, but third party characters make up a much smaller portion of the roster and I imagine Sakurai will probably be looking for ones with broader appeal. I’m also not convinced that a indie rep is even necessary.
Want: 10%

Zelda newcomer prediction: 44%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 1% - I don't think we're going to be seeing Indies any time soon.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of adding Indies to the roster.

Nominations: New Story Mode x5

 

[Aetheri]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 20%
While an indie representative may not have as much of a shot as an icon of gaming due to overall impact...that doesn't really mean Sakurai will outright snub the character if he sees the appeal, especially if DLC for the game will happen, which Shovel Knight would be a prime candidate for...
Reminder that Nintendo has been heavily supporting indie games for the past few years and Shovel Knight is one of the biggest hits amoung pretty much all of them...Shovel Knight likely got a lot of support on the Ballot as well, and if that's the case his iconicism shouldn't even be an issue...But with all that said I'm still going to remain conservative with my rating cuz so far Bayonetta's really been the only exception with third parties and even though she got in through teh ballot it still doesn't mean shovel knight will for this game...

Let me also stress, having an amiibo will not affect a character's chances especially since it was largely Yacht club's responsibility to make it happen...it's also not a smash series amiibo so it really means nothing, remember there are plenty nintendo characters who have amiibos that are also not in smash (at least not yet)....

Want: 40%
Eh...he's alright, after playing his game on the Switch I can see how diverse his moveset potential could be, and he even has a decent selection of alts to choose from...

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Zelda Newcomer-23.41%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Shovel knight

Chance 35%
Shovel Knight is the best bet if we get a indie rep to be in. He also has a amiibo which at least means that they are able to communicate to nintendo. Also they had shovel knight for the switch pretty early on the systems lifetime (if not release day don't remember tbh). However I don't know if Indies are ready to be in Smash as great as SK is I still feel we need to get more 3rd party reps before we got to Indies

Want 95%
Would love to have him in Smash he just seems to fit so well and pretty much has a moveset ready to go

 

[YoshiandToad]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 2%
He's an Indie character first and foremost, one who isn't exclusively Nintendo at that.

His game apparently didn't do very well in Japan either and if having an Amiibo got you in Smash...well...looks like we're going to get to play Goomba, a Metroid, Bokoblin, a Guardian, Koopa Troopa, Boo, Blathers, Celeste, Chrom, Tiki and Timmy and Tommy in the next Smash game for sure. Exciting times.

He DOES have popularity in the west around the time of the ballot, but I'm really not convinced it's enough.

Want: 0%
Shovel Knight is a fine game. Undertale is a fine game. Shantae is a fine game. But I'm not sold on Indie darlings, and there's characters I think are far more deserving than the three big Indie S's of Shovel Knight, Shantae and Sans.

Name any third party big name and I'm more down with it than Shovel Knight as a Smasher.

Prediction:
Zelda Newcomer: 43%

Nomination: Isabelle X 5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Shovel Knight is one of the very few indies I can see playable if an indie candidate were to be chosen. Shovel Knight was a notable indie that was heavily promoted by Nintendo in Japan alongside the SK amiibo. I said it back in my Shantae analysis, I feel Sakurai will analyze the ballot to see which indie had the most votes and ask Nintendo to see which indie game is the most profitable to choose a Smash character out of. Sakurai likely has a lack of familiarity with communicating with Western indie developers, which could make character negotiation harder.

Whether Sakurai would agree on the idea of indie characters remains to be seen, but given the Nindies support from Nintendo of America, the recent Famitsu column that mentioned Sakurai playing indie games recently, and the things I mentioned with Shovel Knight in Japan, it could possibly make Sakurai more open to playable indies. We also had a BIT Trip trophy in Smash 4 thanks to Choice Provisions begging their character to be in the game in some capacity. Perhaps Shovel Knight’s likely immense demand in the Smash ballot will finally be answered.

But for my personal/current stance, I am unsure about the possibility to add him to my new prediction rosters, mostly due to Sakurai’s 3rd-party character criteria. Technically, he does carry game history, as his game was one of the few games that revitalized the platformer genre for gaming, changing the outlook of indie games for the modern era. But how far of an extent does Sakurai’s game history criteria go? As low as Bayonetta’s somewhat niche success? Or can it go deeper. There are so many questions that pop up in my mind, that predicting Shovel Knight as playable feels like an extremely risky move.

 

[jamesster445]

Shovel Knight

Chance- 25%
Want- 50%
Wouldn't be the worst indie character but certainly isn't my personal pick (Shantae) or even the most likely (Minecraft)

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Shovel Knight:
Chances: 20%
I really don't think they are going to add much new third party characters if all of the six return, and even then I doubt indie characters will be on top of the list. While Shovel Knight enjoys western popularity, he doesn't have to much of a presence in Japan.

Want: 60%
I keep forgetting to play his game, I really need to get on that, but like I said earlier I welcome all characters who can bring in a truly unique moveset.

Zelda newcomer: 25.7%

5 noms for Geno.

 

[smileMasky]

Shovel knight
Chances: 5%
Even though indies are acknowledged I don't think they have a place in the roster. Not to say that won't happen but still. I feel indies are not in the same league as other more substantial 3rd parties.

Want: 60%
I do love indies. But shovel knight isn't my first pick. But he would be great Choice nonetheless.

Nomination: Django x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Shovel Knight

Chance - 35% - As far as indie characters go, he's probably one of the front runners. Amiibo support, regular updates to his game, and just plain being everywhere makes him among the most notable indies, but indies as a whole are a tough nut.

Want - 65% - I'd prefer Shantae as an Indie character, but I'd be satisfied with him.


Predictions

Zelda Newcomer - 10.23% - Not much confidence.


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[DNeon]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 17.5%

Well they let him use the Amiibo, so that's cool. Still unlikely especially without Japanese reach, but at least he's on the radar...sorta.

Want: 75%

I think he's cool and a neat indie that not only showed dedication to the Wii U despite the state of its sales but enough for them to get on the Amiibo wagon. He's an homage to the old Nintendo games and clearly has developers that love the style.

Zelda Newcomer Prediction: 27.61%

Nominations:
Spyro x 5

 

[ikke471]

chances 5%

I don't think he's all that likely. he's not an exclusive nor does he add anything to "gaming history" The game he's from is phenomenal but I don't think that's quite enough.

Want 45%

He'd be pretty cool I think

 

[Geno Boost]

Shovel knight
Chance 5%
I can't see any indie character becoming playable in this game especially in the biggest gaming crossover ever where Sakurai has the power to bring someone like Why would Sakurai go to a small new gaming company for a character when he could go and get someone like Bomberman, Heihachi, Rayman, Spyro and many many others or even gaming console mascots like Crash bandicoot and Alex Kidd
The only thing I see from Shovel knight is a Mii costume or a trophy
However I think he has a chance to become playable only because he might did well in the ballout but I still don't get why some people say that he is extremely likely Sakurai hasn't shown any interest toward indies rep

Want 0%
Why? This game doesn't need indies and I never played an indie game (or maybe I did but completely forgot that I played it)
I'll take CATS from zero wing, Cooking mama, Bubsy, Q*bert, A Club penguin rep, Steve over any indie rep anyday.

Nomination:
Geno x5

 

[Erureido]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 12%

Arguably the best chance of all the indies to be in Smash due to his popularity and receiving an amiibo, but being indie is still an issue.

Want: Abstain

I can't really give an accurate score for this character.

------

Predictions

Zelda newcomer: 34.56%

The scores might be all over the place, but I feel it'll be on the lower side due to many of the most requested candidates being one-timers and the whole thing about "Link, Zelda, and Ganondorf already represent Zelda perfectly."

------

Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 11%
If I gave Shantae a 10, then I give SK an 11.
Want: 40%
I'd want Shantae first

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Kotor]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 15%
I see Shovel Knight as the only Indie darling that actually has a shot of being added as a playable character. Unfortunately for him, Yacht Club Games has been stuck doing expansion campaigns starting different characters rather than full-fledged sequels starring Shovel Knight. Best case scenario is that he shows up as simply a trophy.

Want: 25%
I'm wouldn't mind burying the roster.

Nominations
Callie and Marie x5

 

[Starcutter]

Shovel Knight: 50%

I think the fact that NINTENDO publishes Shovel Knight in Japan means a lot actually. That means in Japan Shovel Knight would be exclusively correlated to Nintendo. In addition to this, I believe Shovel Knight did absurdly good over here in the west for the smash ballot. I'm pretty sure they will be looking to showcase more indie characters this time too, since Commander Video was a trophy in the last game.

Make no mistake, SOMETHING from Shovel Knight WILL be in smash. Whether it's just a stage, a trophy or two, or even a Character. Him being just a trophy seems the likliest though.

Want: 60%

An indie character would be cool since I'm looking to become an indie dev myself in the near future. Even so, I'd prefer Quote from Cave Story.

Zelda character prediction: 42.22%

Nominate
Isabelle x3
Dark Matter x1
Snip & Clip x1

 

[Shinuto]

Shovel Knight: 50%

I think the fact that NINTENDO publishes Shovel Knight in Japan means a lot actually. That means in Japan Shovel Knight would be exclusively correlated to Nintendo. In addition to this, I believe Shovel Knight did absurdly good over here in the west for the smash ballot. I'm pretty sure they will be looking to showcase more indie characters this time too, since Commander Video was a trophy in the last game.

Make no mistake, SOMETHING from Shovel Knight WILL be in smash. Whether it's just a stage, a trophy or two, or even a Character. Him being just a trophy seems the likliest though.

Want: 60%

An indie character would be cool since I'm looking to become an indie dev myself in the near future. Even so, I'd prefer Quote from Cave Story.

Zelda character prediction: 42.22%

Nominate
Isabelle x3
Dark Matter x1
Snip & Clip x1

Not gonna lie, I'm gonna laugh at this being wrong simply due to my annoyance at others' hubris.

 

[Mario123311]

changed my post last page considering it seems everyone only gets 5 nom points per day. Turns out I was correct about my assumption.

 

[Starcutter]

Not gonna lie, I'm gonna laugh at this being wrong simply due to my annoyance at others' hubris.

That's rude.

Trust me, I only ever give high grades to characters I think are realistically likely, I'm not crazy like some people here. I try to be unbiased as possible and look at facts.

 

[ikke471]

I don't think Nintendo publishing Shovel Knight in Japan does thaaaaat much for the character tbh. Rayman, rabbids and just dance games are published by Nintendo in Japan as well.

 

[-crump-]

Shovel Knight

LET’S GET DIGGING
Chance: 35%
Popularity on the Smash Ballot is the major thing that he has going for him, and we all know he was popular. However, I feel he does have other merits to at least consider.

1.) His game launched in Japan published by Nintendo, showing that the Big N has confidence in the series and has more ties to Yacht Club than other Indie companies.

2.) Nintendo has become a huge Indie platform, and it’s not out of the question for them to suggest Sakurai add an indie rep to the newest Smash. Who is arguably the most relevant and iconic mascot for indie games? I would reckon Shovel Knight. It certainly doesn’t hurt that his game appeared on every recent Nintendo console and had incredible sales each time.

3.) Has his own amiibo; the first ever figure to be produced and not made for a Nintendo-owned game. Later got 3 more based on other characters in the series.

4.) If I remember correctly, Sakurai has played Shovel Knight and thus is familiar with the character.

Overall these are more thoughts swirling in my head than concrete proof of anything, but I do think he’s by far the most likely indie choice.

FOR SHOVELRY
Want: 100%
Shovel Knight is easily my second most wanted newcomer for Smash, not far behind K. Rool. While I’m not getting my hopes up, I would die of hype if he made it in. With all the relics and different armor abilities he has, the moveset potential is crazy strong, and I would love to see what Sakurai does with his music and stage potential.

Predictions:
Zelda Newcomer: 58%

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[Opossum]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 60%
IMO the most likely third party character because of one thing: the ballot. It's hilariously ironic that a lot of the people who think the ballot helps guarantee a crocodile forgotten by his own franchise does nothing for a break out star with relatively easy to obtain rights, when both clearly had a ton of ballot support. Being an indie only helps in attaining his rights, and Nintendo even published the game in Japan.

Want: 90%
He's cool. Some folks are too salty. Plus it'd help further break down the purists' view that Smash is some ultimate pantheon with stringent entry requirements.

Predicting a 38 for a Zelda newcomer.
Nominating Henry Fleming x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Shovel Knight

Chance 50%
Want 50%

People that rule him out remind me of those that used to argue against Bayonetta. It’s the same arguments transferred over from her to him. I think he’s got a decent chance because indies are significant to Nintendo and he’s one of the bigger names out there.

Cranky x3
Kamek x2

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 3% - Indie trophies are one thing; an actual playable character is another. Nintendo does love Shovel Knight, but he's not a Japanese character nor is he as iconic as any of the other third party characters already in Smash; Bayonetta included.
Want: 5% - If were getting an indie rep, I'd much rather have Shantae or hell, even Sans.

Prediction: Zelda Newcomer
Chance: 16.30%
Want: 67.43%

Nominations:
Sora x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Make no mistake, SOMETHING from Shovel Knight WILL be in smash. Whether it's just a stage, a trophy or two, or even a Character. Him being just a trophy seems the likliest though.

It would make sense. If Rayman and Commander Video got trophies, there's no way Shovel Knight, a series with 4 amiibo and a game published by Nintendo in the east, won't get any.

Hell, I wouldn't even be that shocked if we got him as an Assist Trophy or something. I don't think he'll be playable, but I do expect him to get some goodies in Smash.

 

[RandomAce]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 25%
Although the Knight has close ties with Nintendo I still doubt that Sakurai will add him to the roster. His saving grace is gonna be the Smash ballot, but seeing how Bayonetta end up getting the top spot of who they were able to add, I’m not even sure if he did well as we thought he was. But he still has a chance, but is not as likely.

Want: 85%
Shovel Knight seems like a very fun and interesting character that I would play if he ends up getting in. Though there are other characters I want to be in more than him.

Nominations:
Lycanroc x5

 

[Nimbostratus]

Won’t have time for more details in the next couple of days, unfortunately.

Shovel Knight
Chance- 22%
Want- 8%

Zelda Newcomer Predictions- 49%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

SHOVEL KNIIIIIIIGHT!

*ahem* FOR SHOVELRY!!!

Chance: 35% - Indie characters don't seem super likely. but Shovel Knight's game proved to be quite a success in the west. which may have led to him doing decently well in the ballot. The fact he/she has an amiibo is a (tiny) point in his/her favor, but doesn't say too too much. really if ANY indie character was to get in Smash it'll be Shovel Knight. given their Cameo in games like Yooka-Laylee and Runbow and several other Indie games he/she is arguably THE face of Indie Gaming. and indie gaming is becoming a bigger and bigger thing as time goes on. Nintendo seems to be somewhat aware of the growth of the Indie scene, given their whole "Nindies" thing. so while I don't see Shovel Knight as being SUPER likely, they have a better chance than they did back in the days of smash 4. Nintendo may decide to capitalize on that.

Want: 65% - I used to be very against the idea of Shovel Knight getting in. sure I loved his/her game and I can definitely see the potential in him/her for Smash, but I just felt that Indies didn't belong in smash. as time has passed my opinion has changed and I've definitely warmed to the idea of having him in the game. he is my top want for an indie character. but not my top want for a 3rd Party

Zelda Newcomer prediction: 78%

Nominations

Qbby x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Shovel Knight chances: 11%
At this point I could imagine an indie being added for the sake of one, and Shovel Knight seems like the most obvious choice considering his pretty much mainstream fame at this point. This however seems more likely to be added as DLC than the base game to me, and even then I have my doubts.

Shovel Knight want: 16%
I've warmed up to the idea of being more liberal about third-parties since the Smash DLC era, but that doesn't mean I want it. If he gets in, fine, but right now I don't really care. At least I can admit he's much more likely than a Roller Coaster Tycoon park visitor (I compared SK to that about three years ago in RTC DLC, I wasn't really lucid about his impact in the indie scene at that time )

Any Legend of Zelda newcomer prediction: 42.36%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 25%

Want: 60%

I doubt there will be an Indie character in Smash but if there was, Shovel Knight is a top contender.

Prediction

Zelda Newcomer: 61.56%

Nominations

Lucas x5

 

[Graizen]

Shovel Knight
Chances: 30%
Want: 100%

The guys giving him little chance do not understand the size of this character's importance. He is literally the most famous and also the most requested Indie character to be placed in Smash Bros. In my honest opinion if Nintendo has to put an Indie character in the game, which already has an Amiibo, it would certainly be the Shovel Knight.

Nomination: Agumon x5