Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Nimbostratus]

Chibi-Robo
Chance- 10%
The timing of his most recent game is great. The game itself... well...
It's one thing to add a character from an unproven series. It's another to add one from a proven failure. He also doesn't have the popularity of some other non-retro dead/dormant franchises like Isaac. But, it's not impossible, I suppose. He does have several games under his belt.
Want- 65%
He's cute and I like new series being represented, but I don't have any personal attachment. It is a shame that his series was mishandled so dramatically.

Shovel Knight Predictions- 43%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[smileMasky]

Chibi Robo

Chance: 9%
He is very much an obscure Character. Even with Zip Lash as a recent title. It's sad to say but I don't think he has a good chance of getting in. What really hurts is that his series could have done something amazing. But the people behind it didn't really want to take real risks and only played it safe.

Want:80%
I don't know what is it with me and simple cute mascot like characters. I seem to love them.

Nomination: Django x5

 

[Deleted member]

**** forgot nominations
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Chibi-Robo.

Chance: 50%
It could really go either way with Him I feel. He's well loved, however he isn't terribly relevant anymore, as his last game was Ziplash, and we all know how that one went.

Want: 40%
While I haven't really been pulling for him, I would certainly like to see him get in! I've not played many of his games, but I still like him all the same.



Nominations: Marx x5

 

[CannonStreak]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 50%

He hasn't ever been a fighter or assist in Smash, so I don't know what his chances are or if they are the same. If he has quite enough votes from the ballot for the last game, I could see him getting in.

Want: 90%

Chibi-Robo seems like a cool character who would be fun to fight with, so I would welcome him and try him out in a Smash game like Smash 5.

Nominations: Bomberman x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Chibi-Robo
Chance: 10%
Want: 40%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[RandomAce]

Chibi-Robo:

Chance: 50%
It’s either now or never for him. He is still one of the few first party Nintendo franchises not represented, so he is still likely to get in seeing how there isn’t a lot of competition for new franchises to get in, but we’re entering a Chibi Robo hiatus so who knows what will happen.

Want: 70%
He seems like a character that is very interesting and can have fun moveset so I am open arms for Chibi Robo to make it.

Nominations:
Lycanroc x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 10%

Want: 100%

filling this in later

Shovel Knight prediction: 26.58%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Chibi Robo
Chance: 55%
Call me a cynic but I genuinely think Chibi Robo's Ziplash was created with Smash in mind. It was his last chance to shine but Sakurai however may be able to give Chibi one more chance at salvation through Smash Bros. Exposure.

The pool of notable releases is lower than most other Smash games and Chibi Robo did have a notable game release. Whilst I don't think he's one of the more obvious Wii U-period characters like Inklings, Captain Toad and a Zelda rep(Hyrule Warriors) I still think Chibi has a decent shot being a new series rep, having a moveset basically in Zip-Lash and arriving maybe just in the nick of time.

Far from a lock though.

Want: 80%
Probably in my top 10 or top 15 at least biggest wants. I just feel like I let him down by not purchasing Zip-Lash. I'M SORRY CHIBI ROBO!

Prediction:
Shovel Knight: 22%

Nominations:
Isabelle X 5

 

[andimidna]

Chibi Robo:
I reallly don’t think it’s up to smash to save a series. If anything, it seems like something that’d be the other way around.
Chance: 9.5%
Want: 63%
I don’t see anything wrong with him ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Shovel Knight prediction: 26%

x3 Azura
x1 Sylux
x1 Isabelle

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Chib
Chance:10%
Dead series, RIP

Want: 80%
Zip-lash was a good game, prove me wrong.

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[Wyoming]

Chibi-Robo

Chance: 3%
Series going on a downward spiral that wasn't represented in Smash 4 as a trophy despite that being present in Brawl. I don't think this series is going anywhere to warrant a character in Smash. Maybe an assist trophy?

What he has going for him is uniqueness. His moveset and abilities could prove to be a fascinating new play style. I just don't think he is a front runner. He isn't retro, barely relevant, and not a huge character or series in the grand scheme of things.

Want: 30%
I'd need something interesting about his moveset to be keen on it, as I find him unappealing in design. Nothing against him, and if he did get in, then at least it is another series represented in some way.

Shovel Knight prediction: 28.3%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Xenigma]

I honestly forgot about this all day. PAX is kind of overwhelming like that

Chibi-Robo
Chance - 33.33%
I don't have any special logic here, it just seems like a really plausible "surprise" character.
Want - 50%
Meh?

Nominations - Lucina x5
Unless she's been put on the schedule by now.

Shovel Knight Predictions - 13% Chance, 44% Want
Potential for overrating is pretty high.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Rumour has it that Nintendo hates this character so much, that they threw him into the fire.

Chibi Robo
Chance: 8% - None of his games have done particularly well financially, not even the original. He feels heavily outclassed by the more popular characters in Nintendo’s library. The only way I see him making it in is if Sakurai has some sort of personal love for Chibi Robo.
Want: 60% - I’d be okay with it, but I also feel that ROB already fulfills the cute robot niche quite well.

Shovel Knight prediction: 34%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Chibi robo
Chance: 5%
His franchise is dead. I just don't see him happening when no one at nintendo has any faith in him.

Want: 30%

I guess he would be interesting. The first chibi-robo game had interesting concepts.

Nominations: Ashley (warioware) x5

 

[Bradli Wartooth]

Chibi Robo-

Chance: 50% Nintendo actually put a lot into advertising his last game, even giving him an amiibo. Yeah the game was trash and the franchise could be dead, but Nintendo tweeted that weird flaming Chibi Robo just this past January, so clearly they aren't pretending he doesn't exist anymore. And for clarification, I;m not saying "flaming Cheebs means he's in Smash!", merely saying they wouldn't make any mention of him if the character was truly dead. There's still something there.

Want: 100% Been one of my most wanted since Brawl. I'd lose it if he actually became playable.

Nominations:
Ray (Custom Robo) x5

 

[Ura]

Chibi-kun

Chance: 5%

Chibi-Robo is going to be gone for a long time thanks to Zip-Lash's failure so relevancy is not on his side. He is a popular character requested by fans but I don't think it warrants him Smash inclusion.

Want: 30%

There's plenty of new series that need to be added in over him. That being said I would be happy for Chibi's fans if he got in.

Prediction: Shovel Knight

Chance: 23%
Want: 41%

Nominations

Mike Jones X 2
Masked Link X 2
Concept: Advance Wars CO X 1

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Chibi Robo
20% Chance
50% Want


Too tired for a long write up, good timing, franchise in questionable state, not familiar w series.


Nominating Spyro x 5

Day Over, rate Shovel Knight and PREDICT concept Zelda Newcomer. Calcs will likely be Sunday or monday.

 

[Ghirahilda]

FOR SHOVELRY

Chance: 30%
He is very requested and analyzing some fan ballots he was almost always on the top 10! I really think he got noticed! Also using a shovel: cool, beautiful, unique. But his third party/indie status could hurt him. BUT HE ALREADY HAVE HIS OWN AMIIBO

Want: 100%
One of my most wanted newcomers for sure! I will be soooo happy if we get him!

Nomitanions: Concept: Project Octopath Traveller 5

Prediction: Zelda Newcomer: 38%

 

[Troykv]

Ay...

Shovel Knight:

Chance: Abstain.

Predicting this guy is a complete??

Want: 55%

He's nice, my friends likes his name

_____________________________

Prediction time:

Zelda Newcomer: 40.2%

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Ura]

The guy that I once confused for

Chance: 25%

Shovel Knight seems to be the most popular choice for an indy character (unless you think Minecraft is indy) and if there was ever an indie character in Smash it would either be him or Shantae. Most likely him I think given that it's a bit more popular.

Want: 50%

I used to be very anti-Shovel Knight back in the DLC days but that had more to do with me being against the idea of non-iconic third party characters in Smash and with included I stopped caring. Indifferent to whether or not he's in.

Prediction: Concept: Zelda Newcomer

Chance: 35%
Want: 56%

Nominations

Mike Jones X 3
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X 2

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 30%
Indies aren't happening but if they do it's him.

Want: 60%
Shovel Knight is a great and so is his game. I'd love to see him but there are others I rather see.

noms: Tethu X5

Prediction: Zelda newcomer- 43%

 

[Deleted member]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 2.5%

Probably one of the likelier indie characters if we get any, but that's not saying much. While he did have a following when the Ballot was still a thing, he seemed like someone who'd be requested by a vocal minority.

A trophy cameo wouldn't surprise me, though, since Nintendo published their versions of his game in Japan. Supposedly that was how Rayman got his trophy, and ones of indie characters aren't unprecedented (see: Commander Video).

Want: 40%

More interested in him than Shantae, but there are other third parties I'd rather have.

Prediction: Zelda Newcomer - 46.5%

Lots and lots of overrating.

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[Wyoming]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
If we do get an indie character, a concept I am not certain at all about yet, then it will be this man. Officially published and recognized by Nintendo in amiibo form. Probably did decent on the ballot.

But does an indie character stand a chance against a bigger third party character? Keep in mind that money talks for third parties. Shovel Knight was a hit, but I don't think he still captures that essence of iconic status for a guest character.

But based on my chance ratings, I expect absolutely nobody to be added in this game. This character is tough to rate right now. Who knows what direction this game will take that we don't know based on previous iterations? If Sakurai is open to the idea of more third parties that aren't exactly huge deals (see: Bayonneta) then this character will stand a bigger chance. But as of right now, I severely doubt that an indie character will be added into Smash.

Want: Abstain
I don't feel suitably conscious enough to give this character a want score. Good for his supporters if he gets in.

Zelda newcomer: 52.4%

Noms: Phoenix Wright x4, Black Shadow x1

 

[Quetzal77]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 25%
He has an amiibo and his games are very popular. I'm just not sure how Sakurai feels about Indies.

Want: 5%
I just don't really want to open the floodgates for Indies. I'd prefer if third parties in general in this game were toned down.

Zelda newcomer prediction: 33%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Mipha x3, Neku

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Shovel Knight who? You're telling me the blue guy is named "Shovel Knight"? You're clearly mistaken, the intro clearly says his name, and it's NOT Shovel Knight.

Butt Butt

Chance- 35%
Bayonetta proved that you don't need to be an icon of history to get in, as long as you're tight with Nintendo. And Butt Butt is VERY tight with Nintendo. He is popular in America and Europe, and I'd say he did "very well on the ballot", and it's very possible he did, but it's getting to a point where the common consensus is EVERYONE did good on the ballot. Besides that, the character is quite popular, what with all the crossovers and all that. I think how well his game was received in Japan is a big factor here. Nintendo published it there, and with the voter support i'm sure Sakurai at least played a little bit of the game when it was localized. Yeah, and indie is unprecedented, but Indie games weren't quite a big selling point of Nintendo systems previous to Wii U, and as such the first 4 Smash Bros games didn't have a need to include a character. Now that Wii U and Switch are labeled as indie heavens, with Nintendo actively putting indie games under their spotlight as the title of "Nindies", Sakurai may think they're a big enough part of modern Nintendo to include them. Unless Sakurai sees Steve from Minecraft and thinks that he would better represent the impact of indie games on a world wide scale, I'd say the boy in blue would be a good bet for "the indie guy". Not saying it's gonna happen, but some food for thought.

Want- 95%
Shovel Knight (and Plague Knight) was there for me when the Wii U droughts were at their worst. I had such a blast playing this game, and I think he would fit right in as a "Wii U star" like Inkling. Also, having the music remixed/orchestrated would be amazing!

Concept- Zelda Newcomer- 86.19%

Doomguy X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[Honest Slug]

Chance: 40%
I could see Sakurai going either way for indies, if indies are allowed, he'll be the first pick, with Shantae being the only plausible competition.

Want: 55%
There's other third party characters I have more desire to be in Smash. He'd be kinda cool though.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Shovel Knight

Chance - 2%

He's a western indie 3rd party character with seemingly no support in Japan (this is from 2015 but I don't really think anything has changed for him in Japan). If that isn't a recipe for "most likely not getting into Smash," I really don't know what is. Hell, even the director of the game, Sean Velasco, says he only thinks there's a 0.01% chance of him ever being in Smash, so I'm still being a bit generous here.

I'm giving him a little more than a 1% because I think that his general popularity in the west (even though it seems to have declined a good amount since the ballot), being published by Nintendo in Japan, and his amiibo sets give him a significant edge over his other indie competitors. However, that still doesn't take away from the fact that he still is a western indie character.

Want - 0%

Indie characters do not have a place in Super Smash Brothers.

Spoiler

Part of me wanted to give him some more points because it means we could hear this BANGER in Smash, but my "Mr. No Fun" side takes priority. Even though I love Shovel Knight.

Nominations:
Doomguy x4
Thwomp x1

 

[slambros]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 20%
He is a very popular and heavily requested character for sure. I'd even argue that Shovel Knight has reached viable iconic status. I don't remember what percentage I gave for Shantae, but I think Shantae has a much better chance her.

Want: 100%
Shovel Knight is one of my favorite games of all time, and I would love to play as the character in Smash.

Predictions:
Zelda Newcomer - 31.22%

Nominations:
Skull Kid x5

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 10%
Indie characters are a meme.

Want: 10%
He's moderately attractive.

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[NintenRob]

Shovel Knight
Chance 6%
He's popular. But it takes more than that for a third party character to get in.
Want 2%
I have very high standards for third party characters and Shovel Knight doesn't even come cloy

Prediction Zelda newcomer 57%

Nominate
Skull Kid x3
Parabo & Satebo x1
Lara Croft x1

 

[Mario123311]

Shovel Knight
Chance: 36%
Want: 85%

I said last time that back when people were asking for him during the ballot, he was for too new and wasn't even out in Japan yet. Now that some time has passed, I'd say it's upped his chance SLIGHTLY. But he still has to compete with the likes of characters like Qoute, Meat Boy and Shantae. It's debatable who the Mario of indies is, really. Yeah, SK has had an amiibo but it was basically a one and done thing, never really brought up again we didn't have any other indie characters get any other amiibos.

With that being said, I wouldn't mind seeing him. Although you all know what my personal choice for indie would be. It all depends on how well he did in Japan at this point for ol' Shovel Knight.

Nominate:

Klonoa x5

 

[Deleted member]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 20%

He's very popular in the west, indicating favorable ballot results, and is the face of indie games. At this point he's an indie in name only. He's also pretty close with Nintendo. At the end of the day though, he's still an indie that isn't that well liked in Japan (although his game released there).

Want: 90%

I'm a big fan of Shovel Knight. It's been a while since I've played though.

Zelda Newcomer Prediction: 33.33%
Nominations: Tingle x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Shovel Knight want: 0% (2-10*)

His design is only slightly interesting, and he barely does anything with his shovel that other don't do with swords. A few of his specials are interesting. Plague Knight would be more fun.

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[AvionFinch]

Shoves

Chance: 30%

Western 3rd parties still have a big barrier to entry, but Nintendo seems to like the guy, what with publishing his game in Japan (which has REALLY good timing with when the game's roster was probably finalized, it was released in Japan in mid 2016). Then there's the amiibo, which, while not quite a big deal as many suggest, Yacht Club basically asked if they could make one themselves, and Nintendo said yes, its existence is still something, and he's very highly requested.
As far as an indie characters go, his only real competition is Shantae and Quote, I could personally see any of the three getting in, assuming we get an indie character in the first place. I don't personally think an indie character is quite the sure thing that a lot of people think it is, granted Nintendo has put a lot of importance on indies lately so who knows.

Want: 95%

One of my most wanted, as far as indie characters go he's edged a bit out by Shantae, but if we got him instead of her, I'd still be elated.

Prediction Zelda Newcomer: 63% Chance / 72% Want

Nomination: Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[WingedSupernova]

Boi you guys are wack
Shovel Knight
Chance: 75%
I see this guy being one of the most likely to get in based on his overwhelming popularity in Europe and North America. Not only is he one of the most popular indie characters outside of those from Undertale and Minecraft in the last 10 years, but Yacht Club is on great terms with Nintendo. The only way I see him not getting in is if Sakurai deems that an indie should have more than one game in order to be represented in Smash Bros. It is no doubt in my mind that he was at least considered for the next Smash Bros, however.

Want: 50%
I have not had the chance to play his game, so I cannot say whether or not I really love him. However, I have a soft spot for underdogs, and an indie character getting into Smash would be the ultimate form of joy for me since I aspire to work on and design video games myself. Therefore not only do I want Shovel Knight, I need Shovel Knight since he's the most likely indie rep.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 5%
He's a 3rd party with very little to do with Nintendo, and he's not very popular in Japan.

Want: 0%
I hate Shovel Knight. I hate that the difficulty spike between World 1 and World 2 is higher than Mount Everest. I hate that they have mechanics like armor and relics that are entirely useless because 99% of your kills are shovel pogos, and like meal tickets and ichors that are useless because 99% of your deaths are instakill pits. I hate that you lose money when you die- dying is enough of a penalty and it makes players scared to take risks, it's really no better than having lives. I hate that it romanticizes the age when developers purposely made games super hard to either con you out of your money at arcades or screw over rental companies by artificially padding out game time. And worst of all, I hate that there's actually a really good game in there that's ruined by all this bull****.

Zelda Newcomer prediction: 45%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x3

Funky Kong x2

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 65%

His game is released in Japan now and I doubt his ballot popularity went unnoticed.
Tho again, like with every 3rd party character competiton might be a problem.

Want: 80%

Sure, game's fun.

Predictions:
Zelda newcomer 28.36%

Nominations:
Hades x5

 

[Scamper52596]

Shovel Knight

Chance: 12%
Probably the most likely Indie representative we could get as a playable character. I still think it's between him and Shantae for the hypothetical spot, but Shovel Knight does seem to be a bit closer to Nintendo these days with his game launching on the Switch day one along with Nintendo allowing Yacht Club Games to launch their own Amiibo. Of course the concept of Indie characters in Smash is still very unlikely, but not to the point where I can't imagine it happening. We got some pretty unlikely characters in Smash for Wii U/3DS after all...
I'll give the Knight with the iconic shovel a 12%. Let's see what Indie will reign supreme, if any at all...

Want: 60%
My preferred playable Indie representative is still Shantae, but I think Shovel Knight would be very cool to see. Plus I bet he'd bring with him a cool stage and some great music from his soundtrack.

Prediction
Zelda Newcomer: 58.6%

Nominations
Concept: No Cuts x 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Shovel Knight:

Chance: 15% - I don't think indie characters are likely to happen, but if they do then he'll be the one.

Want: 85% - Shovel Knight is the best Nintendo game that isn't made by Nintendo, it's one of the best sidescrolling platformers ever as it takes all of the things we love about it and quietly disposes of the bad mechanics that we in our nostalgia might forget about some of the classics. Shovel Knight himself is also a very endearing character with a ton of moveset potential, the tone of the game generally does a lot for its characters, it's both hilarious and campy, but still pulls off the more emotional and serious moments really well, it's just an absolute gem.

Nominations: Lucina x5