Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wunderwaft]

Beatrice

Chance: 1%
I know more than anyone else that this series doesn't have a chance at being represented in Smash. Let's get this out of the way, When They Cry is a popular VN series with a large cult following, with Higurashi, Umineko, and Ciconia being the main entries. Higurashi is the most popular entry which does hamper the possibility of a Umineko character being picked instead. Regardless, the series is popular among VN fans, the only problem is that it's quite too small to be picked for Smash. Still, there are some points in it's favor, Umineko is on the Switch, which is better than nothing. The only VN characters I realistically can see getting picked is Phoenix Wright, but other than that VNs don't have a lick of a chance at getting a fighter in Smash.

Want: 100%
And it's a shame Beatrice doesn't have a chance because I really love Umineko and it's cast. I wrote up an entire moveset on Beatrice (which you can check out in her thread) to showcase how she could work. Umineko is a great mystery VN with an amazing soundtrack that has over 200 tracks! I could go on and write an essay about what I enjoyed from Umineko, but honestly I'm too tired to do it and I know I'll never get it ready before the day finishes. All I will say is that Umineko is one of my favorite fictional stories I've read, and I highly recommend it to any mystery visual novel fan.

The series is available in two parts, the question arc, and the answer arc, both are available on Steam:

Umineko When They Cry - Question Arcs on Steam

Umineko When They Cry is the 2nd series of Sound Novel released by 07th Expansion. The steam version features renewed character sprites which is swappable from the classic art.

store.steampowered.com

Umineko When They Cry - Answer Arcs on Steam

This is the 2nd half of the Umineko When They Cry sound novel series, featuring episodes 5 through 8. This steam version features multi-language options, swap-able renewed character sprites, as well as the original BGMs and un-cut content.

store.steampowered.com

If any of you is planning on reading Umineko then I highly recommend installing 07th mod patch, it includes voice acting to every line in the game and it includes high quality PS3 CGs and sprites, though the classic old sprites are charming in their own way as well.

07th-Mod

07th-mod.com

And that's all I have to say! I think Beatrice would be a cool fighter to include in Smash and I recommend you all to read Umineko if you're interested!


Nominations: Estelle x10

Funny enough Umineko translates to Seagull, don't get why Japan calls them sea cats but the title refers to the setting as it's a private island close to the beach

It's because Umi means Sea and Neko means Cat in Japanese, combine them both and you get Sea Cat! But uhh don't ask me how that naming became a thing because I'm clueless about it's origins lol

 

[ShotoStar]

My beloved Golden Witch, Beatrice (Umineko: no Naku Koro ni):

Chance: ... 5%

Spoiler: beeg amount of rambling

HURTS to put her chance so low cause Umineko is such SUCH a good game, may even be my favorite Video Game Ever (tied with Higu) but... She's in a strange position. the When They Cry series is niche but it's also very influential, for something I haven't heard of until one of my friends got me to play it, it has quite a large reach.

In-general the series has been adapted into plenty of different formats; Drama CDs (link), Manga (link) (link), Light Novels (link) (link), Anime (link) (link), OVAs (link), Live-action Movies and Dramas, Fighting Games (link), Even 3rd person shooters and plenty other spin-offs. It's music is so good it's even received plenty of standalone albums from remixes to orchestrations and even just selling the music separately from the games.

Originally a PC game it's got plenty of ports over the years too (PS2 port, PS3 port, PS4 port, etc. etc.) but notably, particularly ports to Nintendo Systems with a Higurashi DS port split into four different releases and both Higurashi and Umineko getting Switch ports, albeit Japan-exclusive. Over the course of it's 19 year history it's got quite a reach as you can see.

While not directly related to the chances of getting in nor to the gaming industry I wanna share cause it's a neat little fact. It's influence turned Shirakawa-go, the place Higurashi is based off of into quite a popular tourist location and they even put up statues of the characters to commemorate that (link).

Now what about it's influence and achievements to the gaming industry? Well, The first big one that I can find is that it initially sold over 100k copies, a feat the doujin genre had not achieved since Tsukihime at the time. Higurashi alone had sold over a million copies worldwide by the time of February 2019. It's also highly critically acclaimed. (link)

It seems like I've been mostly arguing for Higurashi but... what about Umineko, y'know, the game Beatrice originates from? First off I mentioned the music earlier but the music is so good the composer of Omori took influence from Umineko. Proof? Responding to someone mentioning Umineko in one of their songs they replied this (link) (link).

Whilst Higurashi is overall more recognizable for beginning the series and in the mid-2000s the anime took off which helped, Umineko is oft considered the better of the two and in-general is praised even more highly, for good reason too. Especially here in the west as it takes a lot from Western Mysteries. Umineko has likely sold around a similar figure as Higurashi but I can't find a definitive sales figure, unfortunately.

And the fighting game? Well, Higurashi doesn't have a fighting game but Umineko does that'd make it far easier for Sakurai to implement Beatrice using it as a sort of reference as to how she may play. That's quite a big advantage I'd say since it'd make things far easier.

They could also go for a Umineko character before a Higurashi character due to Umineko being the more beloved one in the community from what I've seen. It'd be a nice love letter to the fans in comparison to choosing a Higurashi character due to it's legacy.

In-general the series is highly acclaimed for it's stories, Music, Characterization and more. The series has a lot of reach whilst being niche with a good handful of spin-offs and ports and it's sold a... fair amount? It's not as big as Ace Attorney or Danganronpa but it isn't too unknown in the Visual Novel sphere.



Now... for the things going against it haha.... It's not unknown in areas but in the larger gaming scene it absolutely is still a niche series that the larger gaming scene unfortunately ignores. I somewhat feel like it's too niche to be in Smash currently but it's just a vibe I get, could be wrong would love to be wrong but I don't think I am.

And even if they did go for a WTC character they easily could go for someone from Higurashi which I'd be fine with but would hurt Beatrice's or a Umi character's chances. While I'd say Umineko is better overall, Higurashi is by far the bigger name of the two which would likely be a reason Sakurai would go for it instead, whilst they could choose a Umi character as a sort of love letter to the fans Sakurai tends to go for the legacy pick instead (see: Terry Bogard).

And even if they did go for a Umi character Beatrice is still the villain of the game, not the protagonist. That'd be Battler who they could choose instead, would be a bit lamer I'd be honest but they absolutely could do that. Battler would still be fun and I'd pop off for but... Would prefer Beatrice and there's a good chance they'd go for Battler due to his protagonist status.

There's just quite a lot going for and against a WTC character, leaning more so towards very unlikely unfortunately. Plus, if there was to be a VN character chosen it'd probably be Phoenix Wright.... Not that that's a bad thing, Love the guy. He's a great character and Ace Attorney is within my top 10 favorite gaming series but. It's a shame that he's the only feasibly possible VN rep.

Want: 100%, 1000% I'll say it in red BEATRICE, OR A WTC CHARACTER IN GENERAL IS ABSOLUTELY MY MOST WANTED CHARACTER.

The WTC series has quickly and swiftly become my favorite series in all of fiction and that's saying something due to Smash being at the top for the last... decade or so? It's always been my go-to #1 series, the uncontested untouchable king of favorite fictional series... until I played the WTC series. Those two games, Higurashi and Umineko? Absolutely tied for my favorite games ever. My top 10 favorite fictional characters is half-filled with WTC characters even. I'd absolutely die from sheer excitement if a WTC character got in.

Be it Beatrice, Rena Ryuugu, Rika Furude, Keiichi Maebara, Battler, ...erika furudo... etc. etc. I'd absolutely love it if any WTC character got in. And Beatrice specifically? High-Top tier WTC character. Specifically her appearing in Smash would give us a female DLC character, from an unrepresented genre, introduce a new company/studio (if you find that important), fill out the witch stereotype with a more "traditional" witch (non-bayo witch), would have a nice magic-focused move set and she's just a fun character with a fun personality. I'd love for her to get in.

And WTC content in-general? A Rokkenjima stage would absolutely slap maybe we could get cameos from the other Umineko characters like the Ushiromiya Family and Servants and maybe even The other witches and demons like Lambda, Bern, Ronove, Virgilia and possibly even.... Erika Furudo?, etc. etc.

Not to mention the Music aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa the Music !!! Genuinely may be top 3 possible additions music-wise. Reimu and a WTC character are like top-tier additions in that regard. Like really peep this one:

Spoiler: Umineko Music Spoilers

Umineko "Main Theme":

Umineko Ch7+ Theme:

and that's just a sample of what music Beatrice could bring. Realistically, Beatrice could bring 50 or even 75 songs with just Umineko music alone and 100 songs or over if you include Higurashi and Ciconia too.

It's just... So good, yo. In terms of being from and representing fantastic games, in terms of bringing a lot of great content from music to a Rokkenjima stage to Spirits and more, In terms of being a great character and the series in general having a fantastic selection of characters they could choose and more. I can't personally think of a better series and I would absolutely love a WTC character. Shame it won't happen cause holy **** it'd be so good.


____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Also, finally would like to say I agree with Waft. If you haven't already done so go play the WTC series you will absolutely, 100% not regret it. They're fantastic games I can give you the ShotoStar Guarantee:tm: on that... Plus, Onikakushi (the first chapter of Higurashi) is free on steam so if you don't like it then... there's nothing to lose, You won't have to pay for it. And if you do like it? Well that's a perfect introduction to the series.

And even beyond that all the Higu bundle Steam made is on sale and Umineko is also on-sale so now's as good as ever.

Higurashi When They Cry Hou on Steam

store.steampowered.com

Umineko When They Cry - Question Arcs on Steam

Umineko When They Cry is the 2nd series of Sound Novel released by 07th Expansion. The steam version features renewed character sprites which is swappable from the classic art.

store.steampowered.com

Umineko When They Cry - Answer Arcs on Steam

This is the 2nd half of the Umineko When They Cry sound novel series, featuring episodes 5 through 8. This steam version features multi-language options, swap-able renewed character sprites, as well as the original BGMs and un-cut content.

store.steampowered.com

(also download the mod that Waft linked above you will not regret it, Steam kinda butchered Umineko with using the worst sprite set and not even committing to it by mixing it with another sprite set and they removed the original soundtrack of Higurashi's which the mod would fix both issues. Would also give Voice Acting which is <good> !!!)

 

[BowserKing]

Beatrice

Chance: 5%. Her franchise has appeared on the DS and Switch so her chance would be decent. But I have doubts that she would make it in the Fighter’s Pass, but then again we have seen impossible characters get in, so I won’t be dismissing her chance.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much about her franchise, but she would be fun to play as. Overall she would make a decent Smash Bros rep and perhaps her getting in will increase the hype.

Prediction: Rallen (5%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining. May check WTC out eventually, but not now.

Noms: Corvo x5

Predictions: Garchomp: 0.6%
How many of you guys think another Pokemon rep is likely?
...ooh, that ain't a lotta hands. OK, those of you who have your hands raised, keep 'em up if you think it'll be Garchomp?
...No?

 

[DanganZilla5]

Beat Rice

Chance: 1%

So, When They Cry is a visual novel series with 3 games as well as a manga and anime adaptation. I do see some passion with this I.P and it seems like it's one of those series that is niche, but almost everyone who experiences it loves it. I totally get the enthusiasm but I do have my doubts. It's a visual novel series that you can only get on PC in the West and while there are ports to modern systems including the Switch, those are only available in Japan (At least to my knowledge, the games have had a bunch of ports and editions which is a bit confusing so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). This is just one of those things that I can't see Nintendo choosing as even in Japan this series is niche and in the West, even more so. I know the parameter for third parties has gotten quite low but I'm hard pressed to see Nintendo deciding on this. Mostly because from what I've researched the series nor the group working on it hasn't made any noteworthy impact unlike SNK for example. Plus Beatrice has competition with the protagonists, even if she is probably more interesting moveset wise.

Want: Abstain

With that said, I better try out this series because it looks up my alley. Especially Umineko as the concept looks great. 18 people stuck together in an eerie mansion being killed off one by one in supernatural ways? Sign me up. I'm a sucker for murder mystery visual novels. Especially with how atmospheric the games look. I looked up some footage and the sound design and atmosphere look amazing. The music is great and overall it just seems like something that I can get invested in.

This is why I love RTC. It's as much of an advertising tool as it is a debate thread. Whoever nominated this, thank you. I now have another game series to check out.

Prediction: Rallen - 5%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x15

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining again. I have very limited knowledge on this genre.

Rallen: 1.41%
Gene x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Beatrice

Chance: 1% - Personally I feel like this series isn't on Nintendo's radar. Both Umineko and its' sister series have gotten anime adaptations and even a couple of mobile games, which are very impressive feats, and the series DOES have Nintendo history. But the problem is, even in Japan the series is very niche and well past its' glory days (at least as far as I know), plus Nintendo doesn't do much to promote it. The console ports aren't even available overseas. Furthermore, Beatrice's game is overshadowed by the much more famous sister series Higurashi, so if Nintendo were really deep diving for a character from this franchise they'd likely go with someone like Rena instead. Beatrice isn't even the player character, she's the villain. And we never have the villain be the first and only playable rep for a franchise, Sakurai prioritizes player characters. Some series are dark horses but this one's just a little TOO dark and not enough horse to back it up.

Want: 10% - I will give it some upfront points, due to its' Nintendo history, which is still a big prerequisite with me. Alongside that, my friend really liked Higurashi back in the day. Though visual novels already aren't my genre, I really don't consider most of them games to begin with (stuff like Ace Attorney and others like Danganronpa are the exception in the genre rather than the norm), and while I do enjoy a good murder mystery, Beatrice's game takes the horror approach and most horror stories just bother me and really aren't my thing. Compare that to my preferred rep from the genre, Phoenix Wright, whose games are murder mysteries but are a much more balanced tone and have plenty of comic and lighthearted moments alongside the serious plots. Plus, with only two slots remaining, that's way more franchises I'd rather see take those slots.


Nominations:
[Concept] Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
Rallen - 1.37%

 

[Commander_Alph]

The Golden Witch

Chances: 1%

The When They Cry series is probably well known among the VN community alongside Steins;Gate and probably Clannad but considering the nature of Doujin visual novel it is pretty much a niche subgenre moreso than Ace Attorney, Danganronpa or even Zero Escape. Other than that while Umineko is one of those series Sakurai will probably go with Higurashi, the first game and probably the most well known, it basically outnumbered Umineko in terms of adaptation and while it lack a fighting game I've seen several hilariously bad fan-game like the arena fighter one called "Higurashi Daybreak"
and that 'Dong Dong Never Die' inspired which is also a crossover with Touhou called "Zoku Sonohigurashi Vs Touhou Universe 2". And to add things up I know that we've been here before but despite being the more popular we probably get Phoenix Wright's Rich Cousin first considering throughout the story we play as him and proving that all the murder can be committed by a human being and that witch never exist which seems pretty ironic.


Want: 7%

I'm probably cursing myself here but my first exposure to Umineko is from the anime which, from the looks of things isn't really that well received compare to Higurashi which gets friggin' remake not too long ago and save to say that it ruined my perception of the game. Heck! I barely passed episode 3 and Beatrice still hasn't made an appearance outside giving Maria her umbrella back and from the looks of things this the same case in the game too although much more late.

Honestly from the character perspective I don't really like the design of the Witches, I know they are supposed to be inspired by victorian witch but I'm not really a fan of big puffy dress with the same base but different color and pattern which make the whole Ushironomiya family look more fancy. If I could choose my favorite character based on design I'm going to go with Maria in her regular and witch attire and she's the most annoying character in the series.

I don't really mind Beatrice really considering the gameplay is just reading a text (sometimes in a textbox and sometimes filling your whole screen with words) and don't really have a unique gameplay unlike Danganronpa.

Speaking of visual novel..

Noms:
Tsukihime rep 5%
I just hope everyone doesn't bring their biases against Fate and apply it here, I really want an honest opinion.

Agumon 15%

 

[Cutie Gwen]

and well past its' glory days (at least as far as I know),

Actually, Higurashi Gou wrapped up last month with fans feverishly waiting for Higurashi Sotsu which starts in July, which funny enough also builds up Umineko stuff

I'm probably cursing myself here but my first exposure to Umineko is from the anime

Hoo boy, the Umineko anime is universally considered bad, I hope you're willing to give the games themselves a proper try, Beatrice starts appearing after episode 1 which is a good 10 hours, so your issues of slow pacing may still be a turnoff

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain,

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction 0.5%

 

[Lionfranky]

Abstain

Ryza x 5

 

[Jomosensual]

Beatrice

Chance 0 - Same issue the last concept we rated had. This series is way, way, way too niche. While it's fairly likely we're getting someone not as big coming to smash in one of the last 2 spots, I really can't see Nintendo diving this deep. Then there's the problem that there's way better picks from its own genre. Ace Attorney and Danganronpa are more popular, and I really can't see Nintendo taking someone from a VN that isn't Phoenix Wright first. Overall I don't see a case here other than that it has history with Nintendo, which I don't think is nearly enough for When They Cry or Beatrice to get into Smash.

Want 0 - Might actually go negative here if I could. First like I said in the past, I have no desire to see Smash start randomly repping extremely niche series. On top of that, if we're going to rep visual novels in Smash you have significantly better picks in Monokuma and Phoenix Wright. Those 2 are also 2 characters who I'd love to see in the game, so to see both of them, especially Pheonix, get passed over for a series with this little following would be a pretty massive bummer for me. There's also the issue that I don't believe it has much of a following outside of Japan and once again, western gaming is already pretty starved for content in Smash in general. So yeah, just overall very much do not want this.


Predictions:
Rallen - 3.21%

Noms:
Riptor x10

 

[Flyboy]

My Beloved Golden Witch

Chance: 3%
While people have laid out their pros and cons (the When They Cry series DOES have Nintendo history...in Japan, the When They Cry series is incredibly popular...in its niche, Beatrice is a very popular and both antagonist and secondary protagonist in a sense...but Battler is generally the de facto protagonist, the WTC series is big...but Higurashi is arguably larger) I do want to argue for a few points I'm seeing brought up. First things first, I will contend that in many ways this seems to be a niche series on the outside, but if you really dig down deep you'll find that it has just as large a following as some of the supposed "Heavy hitters" like Danganronpa or Ace Attorney, even if releases aren't seem as flashy. It got anime way before Ace Attorney or Danganronpa ever did, both Higurashi and Umineko. And while I'd say that Higurashi is definitely more well-known on the anime side of things, if you look at any ranking for best VNs, you will find Umineko topping the charts consistently. Both Higurashi and Umineko get constant ports, including Umineko's big-budget PS3 port that came with full voice acting and excellent redrawn art. When They Cry as a whole is spoken of so highly within the genre, and you can't tell me that Umineko's way of taking the And Then There Were None story and adapting it like it did hasn't influenced stories and VNs that follow.

Hell, look at The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles. It's a VN series that is released in two parts - Adventures and Resolve. You wanna know what VN did that first? That's right, Umineko, releasing four episode collections called Question and Answer respectively.

You don't get a fighting game and several anime adaptations, including the new Higurashi retelling/sequel, if you're "niche" with "no following", especially when that **** comes twenty years after the original game. It's almost comparable to The World Ends With You in that way, a cult classic with an incredible following in the niche that is universally regarded as a masterpiece of the genre. The only difference is the company behind it.

That said, as mentioned, Beatrice herself is something of a long shot. She's the opposing force of Umineko, compared to the character we spend the most time with, Battler. I don't think that in a series like WTC there's an obvious rep, and Beatrice has the popularity and iconic nature to genre fans to make it, but there's still the roadblock of Higurashi's popularity in the anime circle. Still, Umineko jokes and references have real provenance and again, you don't become one of the most highly-rated visual novels in the world, beaten only by the equally-excellent Steins;Gate and Muv-Luv Alternative, if you don't have genre permeation.

That said, it's still someone that Nintendo would have to dig deep to consider. When They Cry isn't quite like Terry or a Falcom rep would be in my eyes. Yes, WTC is influential. Yes, WTC is known. Yes, WTC is popular. And yes, WTC is on Nintendo...but none of those things necessarily translate to money for Nintendo or a lucrative business partnership, and those are things they'd be looking at first and foremost.

With all that said, I'm glad that me nominating her and Waft making that awesome thread got people to really break out of their comfort zone and look with interest at a VN they think they'll like. That's the only reason I nominate who I do. I love that people have been really thinking about her chances and doing their own research - keep it up!

Want: 100%
Yes. A thousand times yes. I wouldn't have pushed for her nomination if I didn't think she'd be awesome. I again point to Waft's moveset for her, taken in equal parts from the VN, the fighting game, and the anime. She would be a creepy, badass magic user with crazy traps and mindgames galore. I love that. Plus, if you couldn't tell, I absolutely love what I've played of Umineko. I've been taking it slowly, so I have around a hundred hours in and I'm on the second episode, but the atmosphere, the music, the sound design, the characters, the story, everything I've seen plus everything I know from hearing friends talk about the anime and knowing about Higurashi has all been absolutely spectacular.

I love seeing non-traditional and unusual picks from influential games get repped in Smash. I love when we get a deep cut or a character that makes people wonder if they were even possible, or how they would even fight. I want to see another creepy mansion stage in Smash. I want to see a Victorian witch use her magic to torment other characters. And above all I want this damn music! Listen to this!

"But don't you want Phoenix Wright as one of your most wanted? What about Ayumi, or a Danganronpa character?" Yeah of course I want those. I want Rintarou Okabe from Steins;Gate and a Zero Escape rep too. But what I want the most is to see cool, unusual, crazy characters from unrepped and under-repped genres fight each other. It's that simple. Beatrice is one of the most memorable antagonists I've seen from one of the coolest VNs I can think of. She's so fascinating as a character, and also so funny and fun, sadistic and twisted and a little sad too. There's no reason I wouldn't want her. Now here's a theme that plays whenever she sends a letter. You'll listen to it.

Nominations: Corvo x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Japanese people pronouncing Italian names

Chance: 0.5%

Alright so I just realized that I played Umineko years ago and I'd forgotten. I always remembered this as one of the Infinity games (the ones by Uchikoshi? Anyone?) but now it turns out it was Umineko! Funny how things turn out.

That said, realizing my own personal attachment to the game doesn't change my expectations much. Umineko is pretty obscure. It's a franchise, it has its spin-offs, so it was probably profitable. It has its audience to be sure, but I can't imagine it being large enough to warrant even consideration. Visual novels are a niche genre, we don't have a single representative of it yet, and candidates like Phoenix Wright and Professor Layton basically stand in everyone's way the way I see it. I don't think the Nintendo connection will help in this case. Best thing I can say is that I don't think she has to worry about Battler, though I don't know if Higurashi has any character as popular as her.

Want: 10%
It's a good thing that I remembered playing Umineko because it spares me from having to explain my other, more bizarre connection to the series. I'll just say that I played Higurashi with a bunch of friends, but not in the way you'd expect.

Regardless, When They Cry is a series that I have a personal connection with, and it would be hilarious to see it of all things get into Smash. And I know people irl who would go insane for this. But I can't say it would be more than a momentary "oh **** it's Beatrice" reaction. I prefer my fighters to actually be deserving of the gaming pantheon that Smash is. Plus I want the first VN rep to be someone like Phoenix or Layton or at least a first party character like Kyle Hyde or Ayumi. There are simply too many characters that should be added before I start seeing Beatrice as a logical addition.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Rallen prediction: 0% lol

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Disgaea rep pre-Beatrice

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x285
Bill Rizer x270
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x251
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
Tetra x230
Ryza (Atelier) x225
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x225
Concept: From Software rep x225

250 - 201

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x220
Estelle Bright x220

200 - 151

Senator Armstrong x195
Sackboy x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x157

150 - 101

Riptor x150
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Meat Boy x140
Corvo Attano x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Todd Snap x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
[Rerate] Louie x120
Echo (Bowser) x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Junpei (Zero Escape) x100
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Gunvolt x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Garchomp x72
Rean Schwarzer x70
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Magolor x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
[Rerate] Tails x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Conker x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Reimu x10
Springtrap x10
Ratchet & Clank x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
[Rerate] Gene x5
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x5
Firebrand x1
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x1

Bill Rizer shoots Mike Haggar and takes second place. Ryza, Grunty and From Software rep pass Carmen Sandiego and Estelle Bright, but remain tied for seventh place. Alas, we miss out on the legendary five-way tie...

Tails floats past 50 noms.

Yuri Lowell slashes past 25 noms.

Your newcomers for today are Ratchet & Clank, with 10 noms, Concept: Crazy Taxi character and a rerate of Gene (both with 5).

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Springtrap x5

 

[Pacack]

Beatrice:

Chance - 0%
I know it's a bit of a taboo to give a straight zero, but I think it's justified in this instance. Simply put, there are so few characters left to include in the game and so many possibilities that an obscure third party strikes me as next to impossible.

On the third party front, there is an absurd amount of competition. On the visual novel/mystery front, there's significantly more notable characters that could be chosen (Phoenix Wright, Professor Layton, Ayumi Tachibana).

Remember that we have plain requirements for third parties in Smash Bros:

“While it’s true that we’ve added characters from other companies, it’s not going to be anyone and everyone. (1)

Both companies have to want the character to join the battle. (2)

I need them to let me take charge of the character. In order to fit the character into the world of Smash, I need them to allow me some artistic license. (3)

The character must carry game history with them. (4)

Besides that, it might be something like a courtesy to include a character who has the experience of being on a Nintendo platform.

I believe that a plain reading of these statements implies that Beatrice does not satisfy qualifications 1 or 4.

Want - 0%
I have no attachment to the character or the franchise. I am not interested, but have no distaste for them either.

Nominations:
Ms. Pac-Man (Echo) x5

 

[Inue Houji]

Beatrice
Chance: 0.05%
While the When They Cry series is not as obscure as some people would have it, it's still a "who?" for most people in the West. As for Umineko itself, if we get a When They Cry rep, Higurashi would probably beat it. Beatrice is also not the protagonist, Battler is, and if there's one thing Sakurai loves, it's protagonists.
But for now, let's pretend these were non-issues. Even then, it's still not likely. If we were to get a VN rep, series like Stein's Gate, Danganronpa or Ace Attorney are way more popular.
Of course, that is assuming Nintendo even cares about genre repping, which I don't think they do.

Want: 60%
I've watched the anime, and while it wasn't the best, it was still interesting. I'm planning to play the games Soon™.
I'm all for more niche titles getting repped in Smash, and Umineko seems like a great one.
Of course, it helps that the music is top tier. I've played a lot of of it through the rhythm game osu!. These are probably my favorite tracks:

Predictions
Rallen: 1.1%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x10

 

[Yiptap]

Abstaining. I've never heard of Umineko.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Rallen from Spectrobes.

Predict Trevor Philips from Grand Theft Auto.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Spectrobes mood (courtesy of Inue Houji ):

Spoiler: Spectrobes Music

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Beatrice.
Rallen prediction: 0.5%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Pillow]

Rallen
Chance - 0%
Disney. Interactive. Studios.

There's no need to say much else here. But even if we move past the fact that he's a Disney character not named Sora, Spectrobes is a forgotten series that was never very popular to begin with. So yeah, Rallen's got pretty much nothing going for him

Want - 0%
While I do like other Pokemon-esque series such as Digimon and Monster Rancher, Rallen being an actual protagonist character instead of a monster mascot is actually a downside for me. He looks extremely generic to me, and I'm just not a fan of his overall design. I did own Spectrobes, but I barely played it and thought it was kind of trash so I I don't have much of an attachment to his series either. So yeah, not interested.

Noms:
xMax FromSoft

 

[BowserKing]

Rallen

Chance: 5%. While I don’t see Rallen showing up in the fighter’s pass, but that does not mean that Rallen is impossible. This is in addition to the possibility of Rallen being a Mii Costume and/or spirit.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much about spectrobes, but Rallen would be fun to play as. Overall, Rallen would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Trevor (10%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Trevor Philips: 1%

Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[Sari]

Abstaining since the most I remember about Spectrobes are some commercials about it.

Trevor Philips chance prediction: 2.09%

Nominations:
Conker x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Rallen
Chance: 0%
I don’t like giving out zeroes, but I feel pretty comfortable with this one. This is one obscure, third party series that hasn’t had a game in over a decade. Can you honestly picture Nintendo approaching Disney Interactive of all companies and then requesting Rallen of all characters? Even if it was a Nintendo-owned franchise, it would still probably be too obscure to get a character. If Custom Robo, Golden Sun, Advance Wars, Fossil Fighters, Starfy, Rhythm Heaven, and all of these other handheld franchises were passed up, then I highly doubt Spectrobes would stand a chance.
Want: Abstain
I think my brother had Spectrobes? That’s my experience with the series. I won’t throw out another zero because of that limited experience. He definitely doesn’t sound that interesting to me, but maybe I just need to give the games a try and my opinion would turn around.
Trevor Prediction: 7.4%
Noms: Bill Rizer x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I'm gonna abstain, all I know about Spectrobes is that it was apparantly pretty damn popular for a while and how I used to see it in the bargain bin for 5 euros until I had enough financial stability to buy games for myself, to which it disappeared forever...

Junpei x5

 

[ahemtoday]

Abstaining. I have never heard of this game in my life.

Junpei x5,

 

[fogbadge]

abstain. ive heard of it but i cant remember which one it is. nom grunty x5

 

[Lyncario]

Abstain, I have no idea.

Nominaitons

Virtual idols like Miku x5

Predictions

Trevor: 4.9%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Rallen from Specter Robes

Chance: 0.01%

To give this some credit, the Spectrobes trilogy did well for itself and is primarily on Nintendo systems. But let's not beat around the bush here. Disney would be expensive to work with, and so Nintendo would want to grab a big character if they were to approach them for a character. Thus, I can't see them going for anybody other than Sora. Usually I avoid directly comparing characters, but Sora just curbstomps Rallen in every way. It doesn't help that Spectrobes has been dead for over a decade and there is little support for Rallen. So even if for some reason Nintendo couldn't get the rights to Sora, I can't see them going "Well, while we are here, minus as well as try to get Rallen then." I'm not trying to dismiss the success that the series had at its peak, but this does seem like a random pick to me.

Want: Abstain

Haven't heard of it til' now. I'm sure it's good and I've heard some positive things about it, but I would be really underwhelmed if we got a Disney character that is not Sora.

Prediction - Trevor - 7%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Rallen

Chance 0 - It's a Disney character that isn't Sora. I feel like that's an absolute killshot to anyone elses chances. I cannot imagine Nintendo trying to work with Dinsey to get anyone else besides him. This is one of those days that feels like a 5 second Google search told me all I needed to know. Not to be disrespectful of the character, the series, or it's fans, but when you have your top competition being Sora then I struggle to be optimistic unless you have just a ton of stuff in your favor. And for Rallen I just don't think he measures up. That's not a slam, most characters don't have that resume either.

Want 0 - If we go to Disney for anyone other than Sora I'd be shocked and a bit bummed. He's just got so much more in the way of legacy and popularity than anyone else from Disney could possibly bring. It would be like if we got Fat Princess or someone like that from Sony before Kratos or Nathan Drake. To me it just wouldn't make a single drop of sense.

Predictions:
Trevor(He'll be the first character in 3 days to get a score above a 0 in either chance or want from me, so there's that) -5.32

Noms:
Riptor x10

 

[Pacack]

Rallen:

Chance - 0%
Non-Sora Disney character from an obscure trilogy? I'm sorry, but it's not happening.

Want - Abstain

Nominate:
Ms. Pac-Man (echo) x5

 

[AirMac1]

Chance: 3% I can’t see it happening. SpongeBob probably has a better chance of being in Smash.

Want: Abstain

Prediction: Trevor Phillips 15%

Nomination: Crazy TaxI rep x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today, though considering the obscurity of the character, and competition with Sora, things are....not looking good.

Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

Predictions:
Trevor - 6.92%

 

[Lionfranky]

I am abstaining as well. Others already addressed the same reason multiple times, so I don't want to bother beating the dead horse.

Nom: Ryza x 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rally
Chance: 0%
This character is 100% Disney property and ain't no way Nintendo approached them to negotiate for Spectrobes of all things. Not only would Sora from KH be the clear choice but this IP not only was shortlived, virtually nobody remembers it in current year. It has been completely dead and forgotten since 2010. There are games that have been dead for a longer time than that yet still have a bigger cult-following.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I haven't played it but c'mon. I don't believe overly obscure third-partys like this should get a roster spot. Not to mention this would also be a blatant spit in the face to anybody who hoped for Sora.

Trevor: 4.86%
Plague Knight x5

 

[Inue Houji]

Rallen (Spectrobes)
Abstaining, doesn't seem like there's a point in me doing a writeup.
People really want Sora, huh :/

Predictions
Trevor: 1.4%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for being away for a bit, we just got a puppy and he’s been taking up most of my time.


Spectrobes

0% chance

Spectrobes is owned by Disney. Disney owns Sora. If Disney gets a character in smash, it’s sora. I was tempted to post two picture of the back of the box highlighting the Disney copyright and a pic of sora, but that would be mean. It doesn’t help the series is kind of dormant right now. Overall, while the series has done well, it isn’t kingdom hearts.

50% want

I actually kind of like Spectrobes, it’s weird and quirky. I’m not too experience in the franchise, but I wouldn’t hate it. I would kind of be miffed Sora didn’t get in first, but hey at least the foot is in the door. I might play through it after I beat TWEWY and Ghost Trick again and finish up the Trails series. It’s ok and has my interest, but I’m not fully on board.

Rean Schwarzer x 60

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Spectrobes.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5