Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok at 12 we start Dillon calcs in the morning.

Also predict Midna tomorrow.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Gosh, I can't tell you how long I've been ready for these ratings!

Spoiler: Long List of Ratings

Machoke Chance: 100%

Why wouldn't they add this Digimon? It's been the face of the franchise ever since Pikachu was bought by Disney and became the mascot of the Skylanders franchise.

Want:100%

Digimon is nothing without it's mascot.

Gamera Chance: 50%

This one could go either way, really. We've never had a giant monster in Smash up until the latest game. However, Ridley, a much bigger monster, got in said game, so perhaps he's opened the door for other gigantic monsters to get in as well. Size is no longer an issue and certainly far less for a much smaller character. Aside from that, there's nothing keeping this character from getting in.

Want:70%

Not Ridley but hey, a fight between these two would be cool.

Zelda Chance: 100%

Reggy won't stay by the company if he doesn't get in at this point, and Nintendo is nothing without him. Sakurai has no choice but to add him, this time.

Want: 10%

I've always preferred Toon Zelda. And I don't want three of him on the roster.

Kirby Chance: 5%

Does Nintendo even own this character? He's certainly nowhere nearly as famous as Sonic, so as a third-party, that seriously hurts his chances. Shovel Knight is practically a guarantee compared to him.

Want: 10%

Who even is this?

Jimmy Neutron Chance: 100%

You have to push the buttons with the pictures of food on them.

Want: 100%

Big McThankies from McSpankies.

BERT AND ERNIE CHANCE: 1,000,000%

Sakurai has gone on record saying he's always wanted a Sesame Street representative in Smash, even if it means them stealing the Ice Climbers' slot on the roster.

Want: 100%

This video explains the entire reason why I want them in Smash:

Spoiler

Tony the Tiger Chance: 20%

They're gonna have to fight real hard to convince Kelloggs they should want him in Smash, but we know without a doubt that Frosted Flakes are Sakurai's favorite cereal, so that raises his odds a bit.

Want: 100%

Smash needs more cereal mascots on it's roster.

Jack Skellington Chance: 95%

I'm pretty damn confident on this one. He had two fairly successful video games, and starred in many Kingdom Hearts games as an important party member in his own home world, so being in video games is not a problem for him at all. There's nothing keeping him out unless Disney has some kind of dispute about the usage of the character with Nintendo.

Want: 1,000,000%

Are you kidding me?! I would main this guy! Jack is awesome and from one of my favorite movies of all time!

sam chance: 90%

sam's fans, both the good and the bad, would eat this up so much that it'd rake in a lotta money for 'em. and with undertale so relevant right now, they'd miss out on a HUGE opportunity to cash in on the profits right now. plus, sakurai loves the game, don't he? i don't see why he wouldn't get in.

want: 100%

do us a favor sakurai, and nintendon't forget to add sam. "wink"

THE GREAT WINGDING CHANCE: 100%

ONE HUNDRED IS THE PROPER MATHEMATICAL WAY TO STATE THE ODDS OS SOMETHING HAPPENING ARE PERFECT AND GUARANTEED ! WHY WOULD THIS MAGNIFICENT SKELETON NOT GET INTO THE GAME? HE'S MORE MEMORABLE THAN SAM, AND ONCE AGAIN, NINTENDO WOULD BE MISSING OUT ON THE ONLY CHANCE THEY'LL GET TO CASH IN IF NONE OF THESE UNDERTALE CHARACTERS GET IN THE GAME!

WANT: 100%

SPAGHETTI! THAT IS ALL!

Krack Chance: 50%

Want: 100%

I have no idea who this is but I know I want him in Smash. Please make it happen, Sakurai.

Boss Baby Chance: 1%

Sakurai reportedly hated this movie, but perhaps that was just another quote taken out of context. Until that's confirmed, I can't see this happening.

Want: 0%

Same reasons why I don't want Baby Mario in Smash.

Now then, onto the ratings that actually matter.

Our Supreme Leader Ridley Chance: 100%

After his amazing fan reception in the previous game and his status as Metroid's most significant character other than Samus, there's no way this veteran character won't be returning in the next game.

Want: 100%

Ridley is the meaning of life. Or at least video games.

Grunkle Stan Chance: 70%

Nintendo's relationship with Disney has been somewhat rocky lately, but man, with Gravity Falls' massive success, it seems highly probable at this point that Disney and Sakurai would both think it's time that Disney TV shows finally get some reps, more than likely from one of it's most successful shows.

Want: 100%

He's a seemingly normal man that punched out a dinosaur. How does he NOT have potential for an epic moveset?!

Dipper & Mabel Tag Team Chance: 80%

These two would be considerably more likely to represent Disney TV shows given that they're the main protagonists of Gravity Falls.

Want: 100%

I'll take these two over the Ice Climbers or Rosalina any day.

Bill Cipher Chance: A percentage well beyond infinite

Man, if only you humans could comprehend just how infinite numbers and their ever increasing values really are! This percentage would be WAY higher than a mere "guaranteed" 100% that your mathematicians have come up with! Plus, I can see far enough in the future to know I'll be getting into a Smash game someday. All I'm saying is, most of you will most likely be not alive by that point, and that you'll be able to play as Mickey Mouse and Snoopy in Smash, too! Have fun trying to guess the full roster of that game, guys!

Want: 100%

I love Gravity Falls and Bill is best villain. That is all.

 

[NintenRob]

Dillon
Chance 10%
When it comes to the 3DS e'shop games, he's the front-runner, but I don't think we'll see anyone from there. Give his franchise more time to grow though and the next Smash could be a different story. But right now Assist Trophy suits him well.
Want: 20%
He's ok

Nominations
Skull Kid x3
Parabo & Satebo x1
Lara Croft x1

Midna Prediction 11%

 

[Opossum]

Dillon

Chance: 30%
I think his franchise is fourth in line for miscellaneous non-retro Nintendo franchises, after Splatoon, ARMS, and Rhythm Heaven in that order. The issue is that priority may be an issue. But hey, he outright got an Assist after one eshop title, as the second one came too late to impact Smash 4 beyond trophies...and now he's on his third game.

Want: 90%
Awesome design and his first game was hard, but fun.


Predicting a 19 for Midna.
Nominating Decidueye x5


Also TCT~Phantom , were the scores for Andy and Celica ever given?

 

[Lord-Zero]

Dillon

Chance: 11%

Well, he’s relevant and decently popular.

Want: Abstain

I haven’t played his games so it wouldn’t be fair to rate that.

Prediction

Midna: 13%

Nominations

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Black Shadow x2

 

[Troykv]

Oh? It ended up the Ridley and Dunkey fest?

Okay

Dillon:

Chance: 35%

A Small franchise, but at least one recognized for Nintendo and Sakurai, so I think that should help him.

Want: 55%

He looks kind of cool.

__________________

Prediction time!:

Midna: 12.5%

Nomination time!

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Dillon
Chance: 30%
He's got a new game soon, so he's definitely got the timing right. I don't feel like he or his series have achieved the success needed to get in as playable in Smash yet. Especially if there's fewer newcomers than we're used to.

Want: 15%
I haven't played his games, but he seems fun.

Midna prediction: 18.4%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x2, Impa, Mipha, Neku

 

[wildvine47]

Dillon

Chance: 45% - I dunno, I feel like a lot of things are stacking up in Dillon's favor. He's a first party character, so no hoops to jump through. He's from an increasingly large series, with three titles under his belt now. His latest game was announced the same direct as Smash, so he doesn't have to worry about relevancy. He was an Assist Trophy last go around, and we've seen those get upgraded before with Mac. But at the same time, his series is pretty minor compared to most others, and a lot of his moves are inevitably compared to Sonic's, and rightly so. He's certainly the strongest case for one of Nintendo's "little guys" right now, but he's got a lot of competition to roll over before he gets there. Gonna give the guy just 5% under a coin flip for managing to hang onto a successful series for as long as he has.

Want: 50% - I could take or leave him. I don't particularly care too much for Dillon, but he's definitely got the chops for a Smash fighter. If he's not a playable character, he'll stay as an Assist Trophy, and I won't lose any sleep over it.

Predictions

Midna: 20.18% - Normally, she'd be past her time, but Hyrule Warriors has given her and her fans an extra scrap of relevancy to hope for. Expecting minor optimism to show up as a result of that.

Nominations:

Dark Matter Blade x 5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

I was late to get my April Fools rating in, but it was worth it.

Dillon Chance: 20%

In hindsight, he probably has better odds than he really did for Smash 4, but I still don't see him as being very likely. He's pretty popular among those who do know him, but he's also fairly obscure.

Want: 55%

Could be pretty fun to play as.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

What on earth is "Smash"? I came to these Boards to talk about RIDLEY!

Army Dillo

Chance- 35%
Hes in a much better spot than the last Smash with a few more rodeos he starred in, and while I think he without a doubt beats out other eshop exclusive characters like the Arcade Bunny or Pushmo, he doesnt stack up to characters from other modern mainstream Nintendo series. If his new game does well, I believe DLC would be strongly considered.

Want- 45%
Always down for new 1st party series being represents with characters, but Id prefer if older series like Murusame Castle, Advance Wars and Golden Sun got theyre characters before the newer series.

Midna-27.68%

Thwomp X 1
Doomguy X 2
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) X 2

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining from Dillon.

Prediction: Midna - 11.09%

Nomination: Shulk x5

 

[Skyblade12]

Does anyone have the results for Lyn and Celica? I asked yesterday, but it was lost in the festivities. I couldn't find the results, though.

Dillon
Chance: 5%
I'm really not seeing it. Yes, he has a new game coming up. But, I don't think his series has hit nearly the level of popularity or notoriety that most of the Smash franchises have. I think we'd have a much bigger focus on the game in the Direct (more akin to the sort of treatment ARMS and Splatoon have gotten) if Nintendo really felt it was big enough. He's not retro, he doesn't have near the sort of cult following as other characters... I really just don't see him as a big enough character.
Want: 30%
I wouldn't object, I guess? But he's not really a character I care for. Never played his games, know nothing about him. I don't think he's big enough, certainly not over a lot of other characters.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Dillon

Chance 40%
Want 40%

He seems like an eligible candidate to me. Small and growing series, he’s had a few games now. They always insert a few characters from new series so I could totally see him. I’ve never played his games but he reminds me of Sonic.

Cranky x4
Kamek x1

 

[Hinata]

Does anyone have the results for Lyn and Celica? I asked yesterday, but it was lost in the festivities. I couldn't find the results, though.

I don't think either of them ever actually got their results posted.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Does anyone have an updated nomination count? I might can compile it in the morning if nobody else has already done so.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Dillon

Chance 40%: Seems unlikely at this moment but things could change after E3.

Want 50%: Meh. He seems OK. If he got in it'd be fine.

Edit: Nominations: (new nominations)
Jibanyan 3x
Skull Kid 2x

 

[NintenRob]

Dillon

Chance 40%: Seems unlikely at this moment but things could change after E3.

Want 50%: Meh. He seems OK. If he got in it'd be fine.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

Midna is being rated tomorrow

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Dillon
Chance: 33%
He seems like a viable candidate, but I'd guess he won't make it in. Despite having some games under his belt, he still seems only barely recognizable.

Want: 30%
I have not played any of his games so I have no personal attachment, but he does look cool, seems like he could be pretty unique, and would rep a brand new series.

Nominate Anna x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Midna is being rated tomorrow

Oh? Well then I'll edit it.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dillon
Chance: 45%
For an eShop character he's actually pretty popular. Alongside Lyn, Isabelle, Waluigi, Isaac, Tingle and Takamaru I can see him being a front runner for consideration of Assist Trophy upgrade, although he's definitely on the lower end of the list in terms of fan popularity.

He's not got Isaac's passionate fanbase, Lyn's sheer fan favouritism, Nintendo pushing him as hard as they did Isabelle, Waluigi's memetic popularity nor does he fulfill a percieved 'slot' like Takamaru...but he does have new games from a new series and that's something!

That said the guy has three games under his belt now and doesn't seem to be slowing down just yet in terms of popularity or releases and in Japan and Europe is considered a big enough deal to get a physical release instead of just an eShop release. I'm not sure if that's a point in his favour or not as many consider him THE eShop rep, but the fact he's essentially been promoted to 'worth a physical release' in both areas is probably a good sign Nintendo feels the series has merit.

His inclusion would be pretty useful to Nintendo too. Dillon's popular...but he's not MEGA popular. An inclusion as a playable fighter may drive up the sales figures similarly to what it did for Fire Emblem with Marth/Roy and arguably the Xeno series with Shulk.

Want: 85%
Outside my four most wanted it's a toss up for 5th place. Dillon is one major contender for the spot, just etching out even Isaac. His games look pretty fun(although I've long since lost my 3DS and Dillon isn't QUITE enough an excuse to buy a new one) and his design is very reminiscent of 90s video game characters; aka animals with attitude(Sonic, Crash, Spyro...err...Ty the Tasmanian Tiger?) which whilst frowned upon by many is still one of my most adored cliches if done well.

Tower defence lends a lot of different moveset options to Dillon so I can't see how, like some say, he'd be forced to be a Sonic semiclone. Definite potential and hey; you want new game series so Smash doesn't become Pokemon Vs. Fire Emblem (featuring Mario) this is a pretty prime candidate.

Midna prediction: 14.4%

Nomination:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Dillon

Chance: 30%
He was an assist trophy, so he has that going for him. Plus he's got a new game coming out. On the other hand, his first game got mediocre reviews and there's not as much support for him as opposed to other characters.

Want: 10%
His game sucked.

Midna prediction: 60%

Nominations

Travis Touchdown x 3

Funky Kong x 2

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dillon:

Chance: 25%

Want: 50%

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[Megaban]

DILLON
Chance -7%
Tbh, I know little about Dillon, but I don't think his chances are that big.
Want -40%
I think there ar generally better choices, but I don't rly mind or care about him.

Prediction: Midna -40%

Nominations -Lana x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dillon

Chance: 20%

I feel like his new game started development after the roster was decided. His first two games got mixed reception so I don't know how many people would be excited for his inclusion. I just see him staying as an AT for now.

Want: 15%

Never played his games and have no desire to do so.

Predictions:
Midna 16.34%

Nominations:
Hades x5

 

[Deleted member]

Dillon! You son of a-- oh wait, wrong one again.

Chance: 25%
The fact his games are only available digitally may hinder his chances, as the Smash roster consists of characters originating from games which have been available at retailers, and thus, to the wider audience.

Want: abstain
Haven't played to his games, tho he looks kinda cool.


Nominations:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Midna prediction:
36.3%

 

[AlphaSSB]

Dillon

Chance: 10% - Was an Assist Trophy, and has a game coming out soon, which is certainly in his favor. But I don't think that'll be enough for him to make it onto the roster.

Want: 5% - Other than a neat design, I have no real interest.

Nominations: Decidueye x5

 

[Wyoming]

Dillon

Chance: 15%
I think there's a chance, but with his games receiving mixed reviews and only available from the eShop, one has to wonder how recognizable he would be as a first-party character across the world. Move set wise, I don't think it would peek Sakurai's interest to make an exception for him.

Want: Abstain
No connection and don't have a strong enough opinion about him or the series to give a proper want rating. If he got in, we'll see how he functions.

Midna prediction: 13.4%

Noms: Phoenix Wright x3, Black Shadow x2

 

[DNeon]

Ok at 12 we start Dillon calcs in the morning.

Also predict Midna tomorrow.

It's really hard to know when exactly 12 is...I presume this is 12am as it's the start of a day and you're referencing the morning coming after, and in your timezone, which after digging through your previous responses for a timezone reference and googling it to find out Daylight Savings has started, would be EDT, which is UTC -4?

I think I'm good.

Dillon

Chance: 30%

I honestly struggle to remember that he's not an independent, that's how low profile he is. Honestly the only reason he's not 10% or lower is that he has an Assist Trophy and that means he's being considered by Sakurai, and that can't be ignored, plus there's always propmotional purposes.

Want: 10%

Soni with guns isn't a terrible idea but he's very low priority.

Midna Prediction: 33.34%

Nominations:
Spyro x 3
Travis Touchdown x 2

 

[ShinyRegice]

Dillon chances: 4%
Seems very unlikely to be prioritized to me, the last game seems too recent to have much of an impact. I imagine it will remain as an Assist Trophy.

Dillon want: 15%
Whatever, I don't have much to say asides that I don't care very much.

Midna prediction: 13.62%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[Deleted member]

Geez, I can't believe we're rating this bunch of jokers.

Knack?

Listen here you little ****...
mods don't kill me I just wanted to meme

Dillon

Chance: 25%
His first 2 games got pretty mediocre receptions and didn't really sell very well, and I don't think his demand is too vocal.
His 3rd game definetly came in too late so unless he somehow gets the Isaac treatment and his next game does well enough, he's probably just gonna stay an assist trophy.

Want: 40%
Never played his game but his design is neat.

Decidueye x5

 

[SuperFatMan]

Dillon
Chance: 30%
Want: 80%

 

[-crump-]

Dillion
Chance: 35%
I think he’s got an alright chance, but I’m not betting the farm on it. Yes, he has two games to his name currently, and a new one on the way (which wouldn’t affect his chances in Smash), but I’m still not sure that he’s big enough for Sakurai to consider him worthy of breaking out of the AT status.

Want: 65%
I have never played his games, but I really like his design. The character and his abilities seem unique and fun, and I’d like to see him come to life in Smash. That said, I wouldn’t be heartbroken if he remained an Assist Trophy.
And when it comes to e-Shop only characters, QBBY FOR LIFE

Predictions:
Midna- 21%

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[skylanders fan]

Dillon

Chance 20% while he is a newer character in the Nintendo world I think there is just so many more that should be in here first and I think right now a AT is perfect for him
Want 65%
would be interesting moveset and new series

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Dillion
Chance: 10%
I don't think he is one of the ATs that is going to get a promotion, but he has a new game coming up, so DLC is always an option.

Want: 0%
I didn't play any game of his nor do I know anything about his personality or abilities, so he is not on my radar.

Predictions:
Midna: 23.1%

x5 to Waluigi

 

[slambros]

Dillon

Chance: 40%
Dillon has a very goos chance as the main character of a new franchise that Nintendo has chosen to move forward with. That assist trophy is a statement that Nintendo is aware of the possibilities.

Want: 100%
Dillon would be an absolute perfect fit for Smash. I'd argue that the roster needs another character like him.

Predictions:
Midna - 10.44%

(I am abstaining from nominations until the nomination list is updated again.)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Rolling Western Armadillo

Chance: 15%
Want: 20%

He's new enough, and has some support behind him. He's been an assist for a bit now, and it's easy to see him move up.

That is, if anyone looks at him and recognizes him.

He's in a weird state as an eShop exclusive - he's not that well known as a result. Compare him to Spring Man: Dillon's been around longer, has more games, but talk to casual Nintendo fans and they'll be able to describe Spring Man from memory based on how heavily he was promoted, and will most likely give a "Literally who?" for the cowboy armadillo.

Because of this massive lack of notoriety, I can't see him getting more than the assist he has now.

Personally, he has a cool enough design, but the spinning charge moveset is taken by some blue hedgehog looking thing, and like I said, he's not exactly notable so there are loads more characters I'd want in first.

Prediction for Midna: 19.3%
Nom: anything from Skyrim x3, Mewtwo x2

 

[Sid-cada]

Dillon

Chance - 20% - While not a certainty, Dillon is a respectable choice. Two games, although not exactly notable or ground-breaking, did decently enough. It's hard to say if he can escape obscurity, but he's got something, at least.

Want - 55% - Vaguely interested, but not by much.


Predictions

Midna - 15.24% - Old news at this point, I think...


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[andimidna]

Dillon:
Chance: 18%
Want: 55%
Seems like a decent pick
Can’t say anything hat hasn’t been said already

Midna prediction: 16.5%
As a big fan that’s been trying to get her rated I know I won’t even be rating her highly oof

x2 Anna
x2 Azura
x1 Veronica

 

[DBPirate]

Dillon
Chance: 30%
Want: 20%

I can't really see him happening at this point. He seems more like an assist trophy type character unless Sakurai thinks he could be really unique. He just seems too low-profile to me. Obscure characters that have got into Smash have either been retro or joke characters. Dillon doesn't fit either of those categories.

Nominating Bayonetta x5

 

[Erureido]

Dillon

Chance: 20%

As a newer and up and coming star in Nintendo's lineup, he has had two games thus far, with a third one recently revealed. He was also an Assist Trophy in Smash 4 with a decent support base behind him. Dillon's only real issue is that he is an eshop exclusive, and whether or not how Sakurai views that role can determine if Dillon has a good chance or not.

Want: Abstain

Haven't played his games or had much exposure to him, so I can't give an accurate want score.

------

Predictions

Midna (The Legend of Zelda): 12.43%

A popular Zelda character who is held back by the issue of being a one-time major character.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5