Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[NeonBurrito]

Dillon

Chance - 10%

I feel like he's too obscure to be a playable character, but also too new and relevant to be considered a "WTF?" pick, if that makes any sense. I think that there are other Assist Trophy characters that would probably get an upgrade to playable character before him, but he's probably the best pick for an eShop based character. If he can jump the gap from 3DS to Switch, I feel like it'd prove that Nintendo has some faith in the guy, but until then, I'm not convinced.

Want - ABSTAIN

Never played, not interested in playing. He looks cool though.

Nominations:
Professor Layton x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok so heres a brief update. Lyn's score is done, Celilca and Alm's will be on around 2.

Lyn
18.23% Chance
42.76% Want

So Lyn did ok, one huge outlier in chance almost got her to the top ten right now. She still did better than Chrom at least. Calcs for celica will be in a bit to see with her.

Nom list will be updated eventually, as of now I am using the list of a smart guy right now. As such, here is the schedule for the next few days.

4/3 Midna
4/4 Layton
4/5 Waluigi
4/6 Chibi Robo
4/7 Shovel Knight
4/8 Zelda Newcomer
4/9 Decidueye

I also will be posting a bit later this week, I have a ton of work I need to do before I go to PAX.

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Dillon:

Chance: 35%
He's still a little on the obscure side, but his series is still active and growing. Unfortunately, he's still stuck on the 3DS, which may hinder his exposure, and thus Nintendo's desire to really promote him and his series.

Want: 85%
I've played the first game and thought it was pretty fun. I'm am very curious as to how they could incorporate the Tower Defense aspect of his games into his moveset. The Wild West aesthetic would also bring something fresh in the term of theming, I've always been a fan of cowboy-related stuff. And of course there's the rolling around, which never ceases to be fun to me in gaming.

 

[BluePikmin11]

Dillon getting in as playable is very unlikely. The series managed to achieve getting a full-on physical game release outside of the 3DS eShop, but I cannot see the character happening in Smash Switch until his series excels in sales/popularity/critical acclaim for his upcoming game. I personally doubt the game will be super successful based on the attention the new game got in its reveal during the 3/8 Nintendo Direct. The series has not even received the same degree of sales/popularity/critical acclaim to at least Nintendo's more niche series like MOTHER and Xenoblade through its 6-year run to be considered for playability. As unique and awesome Dillon would be, he will likely become an assist trophy again for Smash Switch due to the franchise's very niche status.

x5 Octolings

 

[ProfPeanut]

Dillon

Chances: 27%
With Sakurai snapping up new franchises left and right, Dillon may look like a shoe-in to the typical observer, even back during Smash 4 speculation season. Despite his concept that basically sells itself, however, he finds himself held back by the tangible mediocrity of his games and significance.

Dillon looks cool, undoubtedly, but that's about the only outstanding thing about him. His games haven't really done much better than any other of Nintendo's small efforts, leaving him in about the same tiers of relevance as Drill Dozer and Harmoknight. Worse is his prospects in terms of movesets; it's hard to argue a set centered around rolling and dashing when Sonic already covers almost all the rolling and dashing that a roster could want. Dillon's usual playstyle of Spam Spindash may work fine against hoards of snail-paced rock monsters, but it'd need a lot more expansion to both stand out and work effectually in Smash Bros.

Want: 20%
Dillon's Rolling Western was a tangible disappointment to play, to the point that I didn't both trying to finish it after 4 maps in. I didn't expect a Nintendo game to reek of this kind of monotony, but that's the game they went just to make this armadillo the center star. Of course, Smash doing its own take on DIllon would provide a lot more exploration into the idea of a cowboy armadillo than his games provide, but it's not exactly enough to get me on board.


Predictions:
Midna: 31%

Nominations:
Arle Nadja 5x

 

[Arcanir]

Dillon

Chance: 30%
I'd say he has decent chances, though not too big. He was put into Smash with only one game known at the time (an e-shop game at that) under his belt and has a decent amount of popularity. However, while his series is still going, it's still rather small and there's no guarantee that Sakurai was familiar with the newest game coming out before production got going. He's still rather small time and that may leave him low on priority, but there is the chance he manages to break through.

Want: 85%
I played his game and ended up enjoying it despite not being able to finish it. I also like his design and fighting style in the game, so I'd be happy to see him get promoted.

Nomination:
Lycanroc x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

Working on a noms update for you TCT~Phantom and @PhilosophicAnimal

 

[RouffWestie]

Dillon

Chance: 40%

He has a clear future. The franchise might not be impactful enough to warrant a playable character.

Want: 50%

He stands out among other potential characters at least. I just don't know anything about the franchise.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x5

 

[Graizen]

Dillon
Chances: 50%
Want: 50%

It's quite simple indeed! In addition to appearing that Nintendo loves this character, who is winning a new game for 3DS now, has the fact that he looks like a character that would really match with Smash Bros.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[PK_Wonder]

NeonBurrito and Erureido you guys might wanna post new nominations since Layton is already slotted in TCT~Phantom 's schedule:

April 3rd - Midna
April 4th - Professor Layton
April 5th - Waluigi
April 6th - Chibi-Robo
April 7th - Shovel Knight
April 8th - Concept: Zelda Newcomer
April 9th - Decidueye


Okay, working from a smart guy's post from Friday, here's what I have. Weeding thru all of the April Fools Day posts and nominations wasn't a pleasant experience, so pardon me for any mistakes

Veteran: Shulk x 180
Marx (Kirby) x 170
Dr. Eggman x 167
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 165
Doomguy x 155
Jibanyan x151
Veteran: Lucina x 145
Skull Kid x143
Bomberman x 138
Phoenix Wright x 138
Concept: No Cuts x 136
Geno x 129
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x128
Micaiah x 127
Veteran: Lucas x 125
Banjo & Kazooie x 121
Sora x 113
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x113
Dark Matter Blade (Kirby) x110
Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x105
Agumon x100
Sans (Undertale) x95
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x92
Concept: New story mode x90
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x90
Blue Bowser x90
Veteran: Mewtwo x90
Elma x88
Hades x87
Impa x 81
Travis Touchdown x 81
Funky Kong x77
Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x77
Black Shadow x76
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x75
2B (Nier: Automata) x 73
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x71
Ashley (WarioWare) x70
Kamek x70
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x69
Urban Champion x68
Excitebiker x64
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x60
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x60
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x60
Lycanroc x60
Labo Related Character x 56
Concept: Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x55
Ryu Hayabusa x50
Veteram: Roy x48
Concept: Skyrim representation x45
Octoling (Splatoon) x45
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x42
Masked Link x36
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x 36
Dark Samus x 35
Concept: New Mother Character x35
Simon Belmont x35
Azura (Fire Emblem) x 35
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x34
Lloyd Irving (Tales) x34
Parabo and Satebo x32
Mipha x32
Isabelle x31
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x30
Klonoa x30
Fawful x26
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x25
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x25
Takumi (FE Fates) x25
Susie (Kirby) x25
Sophitia x25
Concept Indie Character x 22
Style Savvy Rep x 22
Doshin the Giant x22
Scizor x 21
Veteran: Palutena x 21
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Lip (Panel de Pon) x19
Thwomp x18
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Spyro x17
Veteran: Bayonetta x17
Zeraora x16
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Robin x 14
9-Volt (WarioWare) x14
Nia and Dromarch x14
Katrielle Layton x14
Petey Piranha x13
Dragonite x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Starfy x12
Cranky Kong x12
Tingle x11
Sylux x11
Greninja x11
Cloud x11
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x11
Linkle x10
Prince Fluff x10
Viridi x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Mimikyu x 9
Pac-Man x9
Balloon Fighter x9
Toad x9
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x9
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x9
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Ray (Custom Robo) x7
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Tails x 7
Zangoose x6
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x5
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Galacta Knight x5
Morad and Brighid x5
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Samurai Goroh x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
Django (Boktai) x5
Snorlax x5
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
Mach Rider x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Tom Nook x3
Dragonborn x3
Tetra x2
King Boo x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Endou Mamoru x2
Concept: Snipperclips representation x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Jeanne (Bayonetta) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Sable Prince x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Sukapon x1
Slime (Dragon Quest) x1
Gengar x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1
Lara Croft x1

 

[Deleted member]

Is Decidueye still gonna get rated if I change my noms for today?

 

[NeonBurrito]

NeonBurrito and Erureido you guys might wanna post new nominations since Layton is already slotted in TCT~Phantom 's schedule:

April 3rd - Midna
April 4th - Professor Layton
April 5th - Waluigi
April 6th - Chibi-Robo
April 7th - Shovel Knight
April 8th - Concept: Zelda Newcomer
April 9th - Decidueye


Okay, working from a smart guy's post from Friday, here's what I have. Weeding thru all of the April Fools Day posts and nominations wasn't a pleasant experience, so pardon me for any mistakes

Veteran: Shulk x 180
Marx (Kirby) x 170
Dr. Eggman x 167
Anna (Fire Emblem) x 165
Doomguy x 155
Jibanyan x151
Veteran: Lucina x 145
Skull Kid x143
Bomberman x 138
Phoenix Wright x 138
Concept: No Cuts x 136
Geno x 129
Lana (Hyrule Warriors) x128
Micaiah x 127
Veteran: Lucas x 125
Banjo & Kazooie x 121
Sora x 113
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x113
Dark Matter Blade (Kirby) x110
Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x105
Agumon x100
Sans (Undertale) x95
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x92
Concept: New story mode x90
Tethu (Ever Oasis) x90
Blue Bowser x90
Veteran: Mewtwo x90
Elma x88
Hades x87
Impa x 81
Travis Touchdown x 81
Funky Kong x77
Henry Fleming (Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.) x77
Black Shadow x76
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x75
2B (Nier: Automata) x 73
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x71
Ashley (WarioWare) x70
Kamek x70
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x69
Urban Champion x68
Excitebiker x64
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x60
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x60
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x60
Lycanroc x60
Labo Related Character x 56
Concept: Ken Masters Alt Costume for Ryu x55
Ryu Hayabusa x50
Veteram: Roy x48
Concept: Skyrim representation x45
Octoling (Splatoon) x45
Ganon (not Ganondorf) x42
Masked Link x36
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x 36
Dark Samus x 35
Concept: New Mother Character x35
Simon Belmont x35
Azura (Fire Emblem) x 35
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x34
Lloyd Irving (Tales) x34
Parabo and Satebo x32
Mipha x32
Isabelle x31
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x30
Klonoa x30
Fawful x26
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x25
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x25
Takumi (FE Fates) x25
Susie (Kirby) x25
Sophitia x25
Concept Indie Character x 22
Style Savvy Rep x 22
Doshin the Giant x22
Scizor x 21
Veteran: Palutena x 21
Arcade Rabbit x 20
Concept: Historical Nintendo character (Similar to Game and Watch or R.O.B.) x20
Lip (Panel de Pon) x19
Thwomp x18
Poipole (Pokemon) x17
Spyro x17
Veteran: Bayonetta x17
Zeraora x16
Concept: Advance Wars CO x16
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x15
Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x15
Robin x 14
9-Volt (WarioWare) x14
Nia and Dromarch x14
Katrielle Layton x14
Petey Piranha x13
Dragonite x13
Concept: Custom Moves Return x12
Mallo (Pushmo) x 12
Concept: Sonic Mania Stage x12
Concept: Capcom Character x12
Starfy x12
Cranky Kong x12
Tingle x11
Sylux x11
Greninja x11
Cloud x11
Fjorm (Fire Emblem Heroes) x11
Linkle x10
Prince Fluff x10
Viridi x10
Concept: F-Zero Newcomer x9
Mimikyu x 9
Pac-Man x9
Balloon Fighter x9
Toad x9
Scorpion (Mortal Kombat) x9
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x9
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x8
Ray (Custom Robo) x7
Sonic x 7
Incineroar x7
Tails x 7
Zangoose x6
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x5
Concept: Decloned Lucina x5
Galacta Knight x5
Morad and Brighid x5
Master Chief x 5
Steve (Minecraft) x5
Ninten x 5
Concept: Mega Man 11 stage x5
Concept: Return of transformation characters x5
Slippy Toad x5
Concept - Melee/Brawl style Classic mode x5
Ayane x5
Alm (Fire Emblem) x 5
Concept: Metroid: Samus Returns Stage x5
Asuka x5
Abraham Lincoln (Codename STEAM) x5
Masked Man (Mother 3) x5
Gooey (Kirby Series) x5
Ayumi Tachibana x5
Itsuki Aoi x5
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Protagonist x5
Monita (NintendoLand) x5
Cross/Rook/Avatar (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x5
Toon Link x5
Yooka & Laylee x5
Samurai Goroh x5
Caeda x5
Concept: Charizard Remerged with Pokemon Trainer+complete movesets x5
Django (Boktai) x5
Snorlax x5
Hyness (Kirby Star Allies) x4
Rick the Hamster x4
Shadow the Hedgehog x4
Ghirahim x4
Mii Fighters x 4
KOS-MOS x4
Mach Rider x4
Geese Howard (Fatal Fury/ King of Fighters) x3
Mario RPG representation (Including Paper Mario and M&L) x3
Poochy (Yoshi series) x3
Corrin x 3
Porky Minch x3
Wii Fit Trainer x3
Specter Knight x3
Solaire (Dark Souls) x3
Tom Nook x3
Dragonborn x3
Tetra x2
King Boo x2
Vaati x2
Nightmare (SoulCalibur) x2
Joker (Persona 5) x2
Concept: The Sims character x2
Toon Zelda x2
Toadette x2
Jack Frost (Shin Megami Tensei) x2
Endou Mamoru x2
Concept: Snipperclips representation x2
Tora and Poppi x2
Jeanne (Bayonetta) x2
Garon x1
Rosalina & Luma x1
Bowser Jr. x1
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x1
Knuckles the Echidna x1
Dark Pit x1
New Mii Fighter types (concept) x 1
Harry (Teleroboxer) x 1
Sheik x1
Undertale Representation x1
Revali x1
Daruk x1
Urbosa x1
Jack (Harvest Moon) x1
Sol Badguy x1
Kyo Kusanagi x1
Leo (FE Fates) x1
Ryoma (FE Fates) x1
Falco x1
Vivian (Paper Mario) x1
Mallow (SMRPG) x1
Concept: Playable Master/Crazy Hand x1
Blastoise x1
Alph x1
Marshal (Rhythm Heaven) x1
Tapu Koko x1
Bubbles (Clu Clu Land) x1
Hyper Light Drifter x1
Dark Falz x1
Silvally x1
Sable Prince x1
Hat Kid (A Hat in Time) x1
Sukapon x1
Slime (Dragon Quest) x1
Gengar x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or Assist Trophy x1
Concept: Ms.Pac Man alt costume for Pac Man x1
Lara Croft x1

I change my nomination to whatever Erureido nominates
Edit: So Greninja x5

 

[Deleted member]

I'll take it as a "yes".
Phoenix Wright x5

 

[Erureido]

Seeing how Layton will be rated this Wednesday, I will change my nominations appropriately.

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

This was the next character I had in mind to discuss about.

 

[PK_Wonder]

Dillon chance: 33%
Dillon in the span of 2015-2018 is more significant than many of the fan favorites from unrepped series. He's not a nobody, he has some unique moveset potential (and would represent a genre, tower defense, that few other eligibles can). That said, the Rolling Western franchise isn't exactly the most light-the-world-on-fire 2010s IP compared to Splatoon or even ARMS. I can see some desire with Nintendo to continue to promote him and his series. His relevancy and AT status is promising.

Dillon want: 25%
I like seeing new series get represented and I think his is average enough to not be upset about, but he's not very high on my priority list. I would certainly like to see the next entry in his series expand in scope and budget if it


predict: Midna 9%

nom: Balloon Fighter x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Dillon want: 2% (12-10*)

Would be higher if Sonic weren't in the game.

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[chemo]

Dillon

Chance: 40%

He has his relevancy and he could make a great representative for the 3DS in general, but at the same time, that system is showing signs of nearing the end of its life-cycle, even with the support Nintendo continues to provide it, so Dillon's chances seem a bit more questionable to me.

Want: Abstain

I have little clue about him or his home series, so I can't give a judgment.

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Dillon Chance: 10%
Seems too obscure and he doesn't have the biggest support base out there.

Want: 50%
Eh.

Midna Prediction: 15%

Nominations: Dr. Eggman X5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 60%
This score may seem high but, honestly, I think most of you are underestimating his chances. The thing is Smash Switch is in a weird position, 4 came out at the end of the life cycle of the Wii U and the Switch game is coming out at the beginning of the Switch's lifespan. This means all the big ticket characters from the Wii U days are already in and there aren't many new games on the Switch to draw from, not to mention almost every famous character Nintendo has is already added. So for the Switch, if they don't have characters from the Wii U or the Switch or any famous characters, the only thing they can do is add more obscure titles. The only characters added to this game can't just be ICs, K. Rool, Inklings, and Wolf. As far as more obscure characters go Dillion is in a good place, he's interesting, he's got games coming out, he's first party, and I'm sure Sakurai can make a unique moveset for him, not to mention his assist trophy shows Sakurai knows about him. I'd say he's got a good shot of making the jump.

Want: 60%
Sadly, I've never played his games for myself but I mean he's cowboy Armadillo, he looks pretty rad and I totally be fine with seeing him in.


noms: Tethu X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

And now for Celica and Andy

Celica
37.93% Chance
37.31% Want

Andy
8.87% Chance
47.73% Want

Bit of a shake up for the top tens. Andy, while having the second lowest chance score so far, had the tenth highest want score, booting Rex and Pyra out of the top ten. On the Chance side, Celica dethroned Ridley from the Top Ten of Chance, which is something. She still scored lower than Lyn in want.

Wyoming Managed to guess the noms for both Celica and Andy, props to them. Have 15 extra noms for guessing both.

a smart guy TheDukeofDorks @andimidna Yomi's Biggest Fan were the closest for Lyn. You guys get 5 extra noms each.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Chance: 50%

Want: ABSTAINED

He seems a good candidate for new IP.

Midna Prediction: 22.45%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[ssbashworld]

Got some catching up to do

Celica
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%

Andy
Chance: 55%
Want: 100%

Large Set of April Fools Characters
Chance: 0%
Want: 100%

Dillon
Chance: 40%
Want: 5%

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[ChrysanthosVice]

Dillon
Chances: ??? (potentially 30%)
I have honestly never played a Dillon game in my life. They certainly seem like they'd be fun, but I feel as though he'd be better off as an Assist Trophy.
Want: 30%
Although I'm convinced he'd be stuck as a Sonic clone, it'd be interesting to see a Sonic clone that's more focused on actual damage instead of sheer speed.

Prediction: Midna
70% (True Form: 20%)

 

[Xenigma]

I also will be posting a bit later this week, I have a ton of work I need to do before I go to PAX.

Exactly where I'll be in a few days! I'm honestly not sure how or even if I'll be keeping up with this thread during the event, but even if I miss a bit PAX East is totally worth it.

Also, I'm glad people liked my dumb post about Superman 64. The rating was fake, but the mental trauma is very real.

Dillon
Chance - 25%
Prior to the March 8th Direct I would have considered Dillon a fringe candidate at best. With his third game, Dillon's Dead-Heat Breakers, now set to release worldwide this spring, I feel I have to treat his candidacy much more seriously. I couldn't tell you a thing about how much the two prior games sold, nor how many fans they actually have, but the simple fact that Nintendo saw fit to have a third game made tells me they consider it at least moderately successful. Perhaps more importantly, this new game is coming out the same year we're supposedly getting Smash for Switch, which is pretty dang good timing if you ask me. Sakurai clearly already knows about the character since he got an assist trophy in Sm4sh, and it seems plausible that Sakurai would have known about the new game's development early enough to put him on the roster, so to me the question then becomes if Dillon is actually popular enough to make the cut. I think it's a much safer assumption he remains an assist trophy, but there's enough there that I think he's a credible potential newcomer.
Want - 50%
I bought the first game and it did absolutely nothing for me. It wasn't bad, but it didn't make me want to keep playing past the first couple of hours. I don't really mind if he makes it in, but I can't imagine being excited at him beyond the inherent novelty of a unique newcomer.

Nominations - Lucina x5
The light at the end of the tunnel is near, but we're not there yet.

Midna Predictions - 11.25% Chance, 47% Want
Surely it's too late for her, right? I'm only guessing this high because she's a fan favorite.

 

[Opossum]

Gonna fix my nominations since I didn't see Decidueye on the schedule.

Henry Fleming x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Didn't notice Decidueye on the schedule either.

Changing my nominations to 'Concept - New Story Mode' (x5)

 

[ZealousGamer]

Wow! I just looked at the nominations list! Jibanyan is even above Banjo & Kazooie and Geno! What a surprise!

 

[Tew]

Dillon Chances:
33%
While more on the smaller side of Nintendo game series, he did pretty good in the last years and gets a third game soon. If his franchise makes it on the switch and keeps going I can see it growing quite a lot.

Dillon Want:
99%
I love his design and really liked the games. Probably one of my top 15 most wanted characters


Midna Predictions:
26,81%

Nominations:
5x Black Mage

 

[Wyoming]

Wyoming Managed to guess the noms for both Celica and Andy, props to them. Have 15 extra noms for guessing both..

Is it fine if I use them for the Midna round since I already did Dillon's ratings? Keeping it clean

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Dillon

Chance: 13%

I feel like this is both too high and far too low. On the surface, Dillon fits all the criteria to be playable in Smash Brothers. He's got a unique (Not to mention badass) design, he's got a few games under his belt, and he's got a surprisingly large fanbase. He's even appeared in Smash Brothers before as an Assist Trophy! But he's been stuck on the Eshop for most of his series lifespan, and as such his games simply haven't reached a wider audience.

His E-shop status almost had me abstain from rating his chances, it's weirding me out and I can't quite figure out why.

Want: 70%

Never played the games, but Dillon's got such a cool design that I want him anyway. Look at his hat! I want that hat!

Midna Predictions: 18%

Nominating: Ganon (not Ganondorf) x10

 

[Nimbostratus]

Dillon
Chance- 35%
Is relevant and got an AT nod last time. Even if Sakurai didn't know about the new game officially being in production when the roster was decided, at the very least it would have been known that they didn't plan on leaving the series to die. Dillon already had two relatively recent games, so relevance was never a problem. He doesn't have a wide audience yet, though, which might hurt. Then again, I'm not sure a character like Shulk had much more. It will be interesting to see if Nintendo is willing to gamble on adding a character from a series that hasn't entirely proven itself yet. I wouldn't be too surprised either way.
Want- 100%
This guy just oozes cool. I like Dillon's aesthetic and think it would both fit in Smash wonderfully. More often then not, I'll be in favor of new first party series being represented. Dillon getting in Smash would immediately raise his profile.

Midna Prediction- 15%

Nominations:
Ashley x5

 

[Mighty Moose]

Dillon

Chance: 40%
He's had 3 games in just over 5 years on the 3DS now, it's safe to assume he would've done relatively well on the Ballot and he fits the unique, fun criteria that Sakurai looks at. At the same time there are clearly options who are far more popular and we don't have any sign that Smash is going to throw indie a bone to something with such a niche audience, being on the eShop after all it never got as big as it could have.

Want: 55%
I've never played a Dillon game but his design is pretty awesome and it'd be a nice shout out to a new IP.

Nominate Ganon x5

 

[AvionFinch]

Dillon

Chance: 35%

When it comes to newer, unrepresented franchises, he has a lot of pretty stiff competition from stuff like Rhythm Heaven, Arms, and even something like Style Savvy or (Sakurai Pls) Wonderful 101. I have no idea how well his games do, however, to have 3 games, they'd have to at least do somewhat well. He also got an assist trophy in Smash 4, so he was at least somewhat on the radar. I honestly think his best chances are if they decide to specifically have a character that represents the E-Shop original games, in that case, hes definitely the most logical choice.

Want: 60%

Yeah, I'm gonna parrot what a lot of people here say, never played his game, but his character design is great, and I'm always down for newer series getting some love, but there are quite a few characters I'd rather see

Midna Prediction: 19%

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x 5

 

[a smart guy]

Dillon
Chance: 33% It is Nintendo licensed property, with an assist trophy. Only downside is that the series is digital only. This is a good opportunity for cross promotion, so a 1 in 3 chance seems about right. Otherwise, he will stay as an assist trophy.

Want: 70% No attachment to the character, but new IP is always good.

Prediction: Midna 28%

Ooh. Extra nominations. But Chibi-Robo is already on the schedule. So...

Nominations: Qbby x10

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Ok so heres a brief update. Lyn's score is done, Celilca and Alm's will be on around 2.

...Alm?

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Dillon

Chance: 50%
He's an assist trophy who's getting new games.

Want: 75%
We could really use a Sonic clone.

Nominations:
Dark Matter Blade x3
Dragonite x2

 

[CannonStreak]

Dillon

Chance: 50%

I can see him being in, as he is still getting new games, and he was an assist in Smash 4, as the person above me said. I can see him becoming a fighter like Little Mac in Smash 4 from Brawl.

Want:100%

He was one of my most wanted fighters since before Smash 4 was announced, and I would love to play as Dillon in Smash 5 a lot.

 

[Ghirahilda]

Dillon

Chance: 20%
He could be a cool addition, also he is already a Assist Trophy. He could get a promotion for playable

Want: 30%
I like him, but not that much.

Nomination:
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x5

Midna Prediction: 9.69%

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Dillon

Chance: 15%
Want: 30%

Midna Prediction: 9.98%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Yomi's Biggest Fan]

Dillon

Chance: 18%

Even if Dillon's franchise had grown, I am not sure on how likely an eShop character can be as a fighter. But he does have his fans and an Assist Trophy at least.

Want: 100%

He would be nice. Badass armadillo.

Prediction for Midna: 10%

Nominations: Sans x10