Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

thats true, as far as we know only one person has ever approached sakurai about their character and it worked

Even then, not only is Kojima close friends with Sakurai, it was a different time (way more oversight and corporate synergy now), and Snake still had to wait until Brawl to get in.

 

[Lionfranky]

I guess it would depend on various factors, like licensing costs, or if Sakurai thinks he could make a moveset for him. My instincts say they'd agree to it, but who knows. Though from what we know, it's not the third parties who choose their characters, it's Nintendo, so I don't know how plausible this scenario is.

The only reason I think they would reject is if MS demands way too expansive fee.

Moveset? I know I've been guilty of this argument (Tf2 Heavy, but that is because feel Chief has way more moveset potential) but Smash brought characters that completely lacked moveset from their original games. He has so many more to choose from than Inkling.

History on Nintendo? Japanese market?
All these reasons don't make much sense.

 

[Sid-cada]

Steve?

Chance - 5% - Steve's a bit of an oddball; it's undinyably a world-famous and important game franchise that's on the Switch, yet overall the smash fandom has been tepid at best to him. When banjo wasn't around the two were seen as rivals at each other's throughs, though now that he's here Steve has had a more lukewarm reception. It's hard to say overall what the perception of Nintendo as a whole have over the inclusion; If Sakurai can make it work, it's possible, but otherwise kinda doubt it.

Want - 35% - Remember in Brawl when Dedede could infinity chain grab people if they were too close to a wall? Stuff like that was why walls have been banned in competitive play. Now imagine a character who's main gimmick it that they can make walls. That seems like a recipie for disaster to me.


Prof. Layton

Chance - 20% - Layton's more or less the mascot for Level-5. While Youkai Watch was a major rival of his back in the day, as of now Layton has endured while Youkai Watch has lost its fever while never reaching it's potential overseas that Layton had accomplished. While Level-5's involvement is questionable, it's no doubt that if Level-5 gets in it's going to be him. Given Level-5's longstanding support for Nintendo, I'm actually slightly surprised he's not in yet. While there's no character I would label as close to 50%, Layton is probably one of the character's I'm willing to call likely.

Want - 75% - Layton probably fits in just fine. I may not have played his games, but I'd welcome them.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

I was way too hard on this guy:

Chance: 1%. He's not in a good spot, thanks to Banjo's inclusion. While not impossible, something like that can kill you, since there are only 5 slots left, where anything that can be remotely detrimental to odds renders characters dead in the water.

Want: 50%. I was really hard on Steve the last time I rated him. But once you look past Microsoft/indie (if you count him as indie, that is) competition and the grotesque Steve side of his fandom (who mostly just wanted those characters BTFO), you got a character with legit reason to be in Smash. He's from the largest video game of all time. Whether they want him or not, Steve's got a ton of people who have fond memories of playing Minecraft.

Prof. Layton: Abstain on both. I don't think I can make an unbiased rating because all I know about him is "Puzzles, sidekick is named Luke, had an Ace Attorney crossover"

 

[Simnm]

No franchise is a lock, no matter how big or iconic it is. We've seen it with Resident Evil being Spirited, we've seen it with Tekken getting nothing but a Mii Costume, hell, we've seen it with Halo and Minecraft getting skipped over in favor of Banjo-Kazooie. If you think any big franchise is guaranteed a spot then you haven't been paying attention.

Not that I know how Microsoft would benefit, if anything it's Halo that needs the promotion, but that doesn't matter at all. Nintendo's choosing the characters, and they aren't going to pick out of anything but self-interest.

The reason why i think steve is close to a lock is minecraft is definitely something that nintendo want to add into smash due to how much business benefit minecraft in smash would bring.

History on Nintendo? Japanese market?
All these reasons don't make much sense.

Id argue that you are underestimating the importance of those factors as nintendo is a japanese company.

I was way too hard on this guy:

Chance: 1%. He's not in a good spot, thanks to Banjo's inclusion. While not impossible, something like that can kill you, since there are only 5 slots left, where anything that can be remotely detrimental to odds renders characters dead in the water.

Want: 50%. I was really hard on Steve the last time I rated him. But once you look past Microsoft/indie (if you count him as indie, that is) competition and the grotesque Steve side of his fandom (who mostly just wanted those characters BTFO), you got a character with legit reason to be in Smash. He's from the largest video game of all time. Whether they want him or not, Steve's got a ton of people who have fond memories of playing Minecraft.

Prof. Layton: Abstain on both. I don't think I can make an unbiased rating because all I know about him is "Puzzles, sidekick is named Luke, had an Ace Attorney crossover"

Why are steves chances dead in water.there is no reason to indicate that they wouldnt collabarate with microsoft again in smash especially if that franchise is minecraft?

 

[Lionfranky]

Id argue that you are underestimating the importance of those factors as nintendo is a japanese company.

Out of 20 million sales, Japan covers 3.8 million sales. Bandai Namco, a Japanese company that helped with Smash Ultimate added western characters to their games. Nintendo is bigger than Bandai. I don't see any excuse.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The reason why i think steve is close to a lock is minecraft is definitely something that nintendo want to add into smash due to how much business benefit minecraft in smash would bring.

There's more than five series that fit those criteria, and they aren't all going to get in. Either there's something else, or you're painfully biased.

 

[fogbadge]

The only reason I think they would reject is if MS demands way too expansive fee.

Moveset? I know I've been guilty of this argument (Tf2 Heavy, but that is because feel Chief has way more moveset potential) but Smash brought characters that completely lacked moveset from their original games. He has so many more to choose from than Inkling.

History on Nintendo? Japanese market?
All these reasons don't make much sense.

look we all have characters who think theres not any real reason that they would not be in smash but there comes a point where we have to accept that maybe sakurai has no interest in the character

 

[Simnm]

There's more than five series that fit those criteria, and they aren't all going to get in. Either there's something else, or you're painfully biased.

What are the series that fit this criteria?

Out of 20 million sales, Japan covers 3.8 million sales. Bandai Namco, a Japanese company that helped with Smash Ultimate added western characters to their games. Nintendo is bigger than Bandai. I don't see any excuse.

Nintendo is still pimarily japanese company and most of the dlc fighters are chosen apre popular in the japanese market with the exception of banjo.

 

[Lionfranky]

Nintendo is still pimarily japanese company and most of the dlc fighters are chosen apre popular in the japanese market with the exception of banjo.

So is Bandai Namco. Yet, they still managed to bring Yoda, Darth Vader, Spawn, Geralt, Negan to their games. Heck, Capcom has done Marvel vs Capcom which is essentially east vs west. Exception is made. We've seen so many fanrules getting broken. This is another one in chopping line.

look we all have characters who think theres not any real reason that they would not be in smash but there comes a point where we have to accept that maybe sakurai has no interest in the character

That's another reason I can accept.

 

[fogbadge]

That's another reason I can accept.

why?

 

[Lionfranky]

why?

I mean... Nintendo can't just force characters that Sakurai is not interested in. They give him pool to choose from. His input still matters. If he thinks certain characters are not realizeable, I will accept that for what it is.

 

[Jomosensual]

The reason why i think steve is close to a lock is minecraft is definitely something that nintendo want to add into smash due to how much business benefit minecraft in smash would bring.

If that was how things have been working for DLC we would have gotten Steve or Chief over Banjo, a number of fighting game characters over Terry, and likely a few characters over an Arms rep. They're not just throwing cash at the biggest names possible for DLC.

 

[fogbadge]

I mean... Nintendo can't just force characters that Sakurai is not interested in. They give him pool to choose from. His input still matters. If he thinks certain characters are not realizeable, I will accept that for what it is.

thats not what i was saying, i was saying might not be interested in a character and avoid including them at all. i never said anything about nintendo forcing him

 

[GoodGrief741]

What are the series that fit this criteria?

Are you seriously asking me what videogame series are successful and iconic? Yeah, I'm done with this conversation. Obviously there's nothing to be done here.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Sorry. accidentally posted ratings early

 

[DanganZilla5]

delete this. accidentally posted something

 

[Simnm]

I mean... Nintendo can't just force characters that Sakurai is not interested in. They give him pool to choose from. His input still matters. If he thinks certain characters are not realizeable, I will accept that for what it is.

Nintendo isnt bandai namco and the way they treat smash bros might be different how bandai namco treats tekken,etc.this might change in the future but having history on nintendo consoles and having a major presence in japan is still major advantage over a third party who dosemt have these factors

If that was how things have been working for DLC we would have gotten Steve or Chief over Banjo, a number of fighting game characters over Terry, and likely a few characters over an Arms rep. They're not just throwing cash at the biggest names possible for DLC.

Then what are they using to decide for dlc?legacy because minecraft has that in spades,relationship to nintendo?

Are you seriously asking me what videogame series are successful and iconic? Yeah, I'm done with this conversation. Obviously there's nothing to be done here.

Im asking What series specifically matches the success and influence of minecraft specififcally?

 

[Perkilator]

Delete, posted ratings early.

 

[SharkLord]

Shouldn't we be moving on now? It's been like three days already...

 

[3DSNinja]

Nintendo isnt bandai namco and the way they treat smash bros might be different how bandai namco treats tekken,etc.this might change in the future but having history on nintendo consoles and having a major presence in japan is still major advantage over a third party who dosemt have these factors

Then what are they using to decide for dlc?legacy because minecraft has that in spades,relationship to nintendo?

Im asking What series specifically matches the success and influence of minecraft specififcally?

Nintendo and Sakurai comfirmed that Sakurai made the final choice. If Nintendo chose, Joker and Terry probably wouldn't be in the game.

And for DLC? We don't know, tbh.

Success doesn't equal conformation.

 

[amageish]

Im asking What series specifically matches the success and influence of minecraft specififcally?

Is there a series that is more successful then the best-selling video game of all time?

Well, if we're defining success as sales, then no. That said, sales haven't really resulted in Smash roster spots historically - or else Tetris and Resident Evil wouldn't have been spirited away while franchises like Persona, King of Fighters, and Banjo Kazooie got in.

Now, as far as influence? MineCraft has definitely impacted survival games a tonne and has spawned an entire subgenre of MineCraft-alike games. That is very impressive! That said, tonnes of franchises were impactful on the overall gaming landscape and inspired copycats/created new subgenres.

Warcraft and other Blizzard products had major influences on the PC gaming scene. DOTA and League of Legends have massive impact on the founding of MOBAs as a genre, with both being very profitable - and now competing again in the auto-battler/auto-chess subgenre. Story of Seasons helped define life simulators as a genre... Heck, if we want to get very specific with our genres, then I'd like to nominate Katawa Shoujo for its role in making English-language visual novels a more commonly-accepted thing in the early 2010s.

Point Being: Smash picks characters for more nuanced corporate reasosn then just "This IP is successful and influential." If Nintendo wants Steve, then Nintendo could probably negotiate for Steve and Sakurai could probably make a moveset for him. That said, I don't think MineCraft's success makes him a shoo-in by any means.

 

[Neosonic97]

Warcraft and other Blizzard products had major influences on the PC gaming scene. DOTA and League of Legends have massive impact on the founding of MOBAs as a genre, with both being very profitable - and now competing again in the auto-battler/auto-chess subgenre. Story of Seasons helped define life simulators as a genre... Heck, if we want to get very specific with our genres, then I'd like to nominate Katawa Shoujo for its role in making English-language visual novels a more commonly-accepted thing in the early 2010s.

Also Touhou and Bullet Hells- Most Modern Bullet Hell-style games take at least some inspiration from Touhou Project (I'm looking STRAIGHT at you, Undertale).

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Shouldn't we be moving on now? It's been like three days already...

day will end at Noon est. Kept it going due to there being some discussion and I did not want to kneecap it yet.

 

[Opossum]

Steve
Chance: 10%
I think he has a pretty damn good shot, all things considered. Nintendo has a good working relationship with Microsoft, with Minecraft being the reason Banjo is even here now, and Minecraft itself is super popular worldwide.
Want: 80%
Steve is a genuine icon. And I like that. That and I think his moveset could be similar to PSASBR Sackboy, and that is something I'd love.

Layton

Chance: 5%
A bit on the lower end due to being a more low-key than some other third parties in presence and demand. That being said, the franchise has a long and storied history with Nintendo.

Want: 80%
Layton is just a really charming character. I just like his vibe. Go puzzle man go. Slotmachinegun.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Rate Rex and Waluigi

Just for today, everyone gets 15 noms. Save what you want from the purge, this is mainly cuz 500 is a surprise .

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. I just wanna get to Day 500 and get that out of the way.

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo x8
Sakura Shinguji x7

 

[DanganZilla5]

Rex

Chance: 80%

This is the highest chance score I've ever given. And for good reasons.

First, Xenoblade is an ever-growing series with the first game having a Definitive Edition come to Switch this year, and it did quite well with it selling 1 million units in its first month. This shows that the series is still going strong. The main game of today's show, Xenoblade 2, came out 3 years ago and as of March 2019 (the most recent sales figures I could find), the game has sold more than 1.73 million copies, exceeding expectations. This makes it the best selling Xenoblade game and Monolith Soft's best selling game. Xenoblade 2 is a popular game and is often regarded as a notable game for the Switch.

Some people say that Xenoblade 2 is too old to be marketable, but just look at ARMS which got a character. Speaking of ARMS, Sakurai has specifically pointed out both ARMS and Xenoblade 2 as two games that missed the cut for base game due to them coming out too late in the development cycle. This shows that Sakurai and Nintendo are going back to slightly older games to make up for lost opportunities. If ARMS got a character, then so can Xenoblade 2.

Other naysayers will point out Rex's Mii costume and say that it deconfirms Rex. Normally, I would say DLC Mii costumes do deconfirm characters. But his Mii costume is a special case. Instead of being a standalone DLC, his Mii costume was a bonus for buying the Fighters Pass. The crucial difference is that you didn't directly pay money just to get Rex's Mii costume. You paid for the Fighters Pass, not for Rex's Mii costume, and they specifically stated that the Mii costume was a bonus. So it would not be a situation like with the other Mii costumes where you paid to get that Mii costume and then they would charge you more money to pay for the playable character. I hope I made this clear, but basically what I'm saying is that Rex's Mii costume doesn't deconfirm him as a playable character.

I've also seen some people say that there is already some Xenoblade 2 music in the game and that the Smash team might not bother with Rex because of that. While it's possible this could happen, the reality is that there is plenty of Xenoblade 2 music missing so if they needed to make a challenger pack, they would have no shortage of music to pick from. If Nintendo and Sakurai wanted to give Rex another chance, I highly doubt a couple music tracks will stop them.

Overall, Rex is in a great spot. The relevancy argument is dead, Rex is a popular and highly requested character, Xenoblade will continue to get more popular and Nintendo would likely want to capitalize on that by putting in another Xenoblade character, and Sakurai gave Rex a honorable mention. All the signs point to Rex, and dare I say it.....

....I think Rex is the most likely character. Hands down. He is THE frontrunner for this pass. He has virtually no obstacles aside from general competition and Elma, who I will say does have a slight chance but unless she gets another game soon, I can't see her getting in over Rex. This does not mean that I think Rex is a lock, but I would be very shocked if he does not become playable by the end of this pass.

Want: 70%

I'm mostly giving him this score as I think he got gypped of a spot in the base roster. I still don't have much experience with the Xenoblade series but I still think it deserves another rep. I have heard some music from Xenoblade 2 and I'll say that it would be a shame if we were just left with what few tracks we already have. You would think that I would have more to say after I just defended Rex so much, but I don't got much to say. I just think that he would be a fun character and I think he deserves a spot on the roster.

_____________________

The fan demand that never ends

Chance: 37%

That Mario 35th Direct really threw a wrench into my thinking with this one. You will have that group of people who will say "There was no Smash announcement, thus there are no Mario characters coming since that was the perfect time to announce one". And you will have the other group say "There is a Mario themed tournament coming later on rather than now, that means that we will get a Mario character announced alongside it!" So you know what, I'm just gonna say "**** it" and not consider this in my score. We don't know for certain what this Direct means for a Mario character. Besides, anniversaries rarely matter for Smash so this whole thing could lead to nothing.

With that out of the way, I will reiterate that I don't think assist trophies are deconfirmations. Min Min got in over Spring Man because Yabuki wanted her. Sakurai never stated that the assist trophy was the reason why Spring Man was skipped over. So for now, I will keep defending assist trophies until I see definitive proof that they deconfirm.

Moving onto Waluigi himself, what a history this guy has with Smash. And people had quite a reaction to his assist trophy reveal, to the point where there was a loud campaign for him online which was so huge that Reggie, the man himself, responded to the overwhelming support for Waluigi. Now granted, that was Nintendo of America. I don't know how people in Japan reacted to the reveal (It would be nice if someone here knew how that went). I do know that people were harassing Sakurai over it which is not cool, though I don't think that would impact Sakurai's thoughts on Waluigi much.

I will say this, I do think Waluigi is the most likely assist trophy. I mean what other character can say that they had so many people campaigning for them that Nintendo had to respond? And honestly Waluigi should have been in a mainline Mario game by now. He has been appearing in so many spinoff games for so long now that he has become quite recognizable even to the casual audience. He could also take elements from the different spinoff games like Mario Tennis, Golf, all the other sports games and maybe even Mario Kart to implement into a moveset. While Mario already has a **** ton of music tracks, I'm sure there is enough music from all the spinoff games to make for a satisfactory selection for a challenger pack.

Now the question is, would Nintendo pick Waluigi? Nintendo of Japan should be aware of the huge amount of fan demand for Waluigi and I imagine he did well on the ballot. I still think Geno is the most likely Mario character but if in the case that Nintendo just doesn't care about Geno, Waluigi should be the top candidate for another Mario character. Keyword is "should". We do got all the major Mario characters, but with Waluigi's luck, we might end up with someone else like King Boo instead. I'm not saying that is likely, but after Piranha Plant I think we might end up in a timeline where we get someone other than Waluigi. People will also point out Paper Mario, but if you ask me I think that Origami King spirit event kills his chances.

Overall, I am pretty confident in Waluigi. If I had to bet on an assist trophy upgrade, it would be him or Isaac, though I would probably lean more toward Waluigi. He is recognizable, has huge fan demand, and my gut feeling says that this might finally be his time.

Want: 75%

Just make him playable already for pete’s sake. I’m not a big supporter of Waluigi, but I think he would be funny and his moveset could be really fun if they got creative and used various kinds of sports equipment or maybe have him ride a kart for some of his moves. But yeah the main reason why this score is so high is because it would be a big deal if Waluigi became playable. Imagine all the hype reactions. Plus my best friend is a big Waluigi fan so it would make my day to see his reaction.


Noms:
Ezio x5
Klonoa x10

 

[Calamitas]

Hark, tell the wah!

Chance: 35%
Out of all potential Assist Trophy promotions, Waluigi is the most likely in my eyes. Thanks to the Min Min presentation, we already know that being an Assist Trophy isn't an inherent death sentence, and the disappointment over Waluigi's snub was loud and wide. The fact that they didn't reveal him or any other Mario newcomer in the recent 35th anniversary Direct however, is the biggest strike against him, I feel. I'm well aware that Sakurai and his team generally don't care about series anniversaries - I've made that point often enough myself - the Mario series I feel would've been the one exception to this. So while I think there's still a good chance for our Wa. . . I don't see him as a guarantee.

Want: 100%
I want the funny purple man. That's all there is too it.

And now. . . urgh.

Spoiler: Reaction image, spoilered for size

Mr "Bad Character Design": Brexit

I'll just quote my rating from last time. This character is not worth my energy, and barely anything has changed for him.

Chance part:

Chance: 0%
Nope. That ship has sailed. So, sure you may say, he has a lot of fan support, and apparently could have happened in the base game. But so what? Just look at Dixie Kong. She was going to happen in Brawl, has a Mii costume now, and the Donkey Kong series has received more attention now than it has received in any game since Brawl! And yet, Dixie Kong is nowhere to be seen. And beyond that, Bandana Waddle Dee and Geno also have yet to happen, despite the massive fan support (although the latter of course also has the issue Square Enix). Plus, unlike any of those three examples, here's what Rex is missing: Future relevance. Considering that Xenoblade as a series seems to be following the Final Fantasy model of sequels, it is a reasonably likely assumption to make that he isn't going to have the main character role in any future Xenoblade game, let alone make any kind of appearance. I would say that we're already seeing this with Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition, but considering that that game just came out, and patches with additional content are at least possible and could give him some role, I don't wanna don the clown outfit for making that statement.
And now, for the apparently more minor points: The Mii costume was specifically added in as DLC, and promoted along with the first fighter pass on multiple occasions. And so what if an ARMS character is coming? You wanna know what ARMS lacked that Rex' game already has? Music. And if you wanna talk about a Xenoblade game that has no music and that got snubbed pretty hard in Smash Ultimate, you need to look one entry further back.

Want part:

Want: 0%
This is easily gonna be the longer paragraph here, I can already say without any hesitation. Let me make one thing clear: The first Xenoblade is one of my favourite games of all time, right up there with Majora's Mask and Okami. And as something that markets itself as a sequel to that, Xenoblade Chronicles 2 fails on just about every level to make something better, or even something anywhere near as good as the original.

Spoiler: More detailed explanation in here to not clog up the page and to step on less toes; don't complain about stepped toes if you ignored the warning

The story is a mess that was clearly written in a rush, the main cast is absolutely bloated (depending on how you count it, your main party consists of twelve to fourteen characters, and there's six main villains of varying importance, even more if you count their Blades) and nowhere near as well developed as the main casts of any of the other games, the Blade gacha system is a horrible idea that, from what I can tell, not even fans of this game tend to enjoy, field skills constantly grind your exploration to a screeching halt, and, what is to me the biggest misstep, the side quests are nowhere near as plentiful or deep as they were in 1 and X. Oh, and most character designs are pretty bad, but there's no need to hammer that point down any further.
And at the center of all my problems with this game, all the things that I hate, sits Rex. He's incredibly bland in terms of his personality, his character arc is extremely understated to the point where I've seen multiple people argue that perhaps Pyra or Mythra are the actual protagonist (who wouldn't be much better protagonists, even if they were), constantly takes away the attention of the story and even side quests/stories from more interesting characters, and yet the game's narrative constantly worships the very ground that he walks on, and expects the player to do the same. And, sure, a character's writing has no bearing on how they'd appear in Smash, and we have plenty of badly written protagonist characters in the game, such as [insert Fire Emblem protagonist of your choice here]. But a character's writing in their home game is pretty important to actually make them likable in the first place, and Rex clearly doesn't manage that for me.
As for moveset potential and the like? I don't see it. Sure, he could switch between Blades, but. . . so what? What Blades do you even give him? Pyra and Mythra? The moveset he gets from is virtually identical, especially since I'm pretty sure that Blade specials would be reserved for a Final Smash. The Blades he canonicaly gets? The only ones there are both spoilers, and I doubt that Sakurai and his team would do that (though then again, they also pointlessly added Seven to Shulk's Final Smash in Ultimate. . .). Do the Byleth thing and give him the Blades of his party members? Also a spoiler, and it runs risk of giving him two weapons that are very similar to the ones he already has (Zeke/Pandora's sword is similar to Pyra/Mythra's swords, Nia/Dromarch and Mòrag/Brighid are very similar). Pick a buncha random Blades from the dozen or so rare ones? That would be way too random of an option. And really, both of the big things that get touted as unique mechanics that he could bring to the game can be done more interestingly by other characters. Switching movesets via weapon switch? Go for Elma. Puppet fighter? Astral Chain protagonist is right there.
And even in a more general sense, all that Rex would really add to the game in terms of Xenoblade representation is basically "more of the same but worse", when Xenoblade as a series has already done very different and more interesting things.

Bottom line, this is one of the very few characters that I'm actively against. You know, I generally try to be a positive person. But literally the only set of circumstances where I wouldn't be dead against Rex making it into this game were if by some bizarre set of choices by Sakurai and Nintendo, Elma makes it in before him. And I think I don't need to push for this concept to be rated in this thread to accurately make the statement that everyone agrees that the chance of that happening (especially in the confines of this current Fighter Pass) is 0%.

Now, nominations. . . heck, I'll still wait until either this concept gets rated or we get a reveal of FP7.
Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x15[/QUOTE]

 

[SharkLord]

Welp, here we go. Hopefully this isn't too controversial.
Rex-Rexstar and his Stand, ｢STAR PYRATINUM｣
Chance: 70%. Things are looking pretty good for the Driver. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 surpassed expectations and broke Xenoblade out of it's cult classic status, much like Awakening for Fire Emblem. They went on to become a popular request for Smash, and topped quite a few polls in Japan. In addition, Sakurai stated that he'd have added characters from XC2 and ARMS if they had been released sooner, though he also added that an ARMS character would have been too complex at the time after Min Min, which could or could not apply to Rex as well.
What I think is the most important part is that XC2 is still getting promotions from MonoSoft and Nintendo. It is co-featured with XC: DE in MonoSoft's Twitter banner, it was also co-featured in XC: DE's page in a magazine (Famitsu? Nintendo Dream? I don't quite remember which one, but it got co-featured for sure), and when XC: DE released, Nintendo sent out a poll asking if you got into it from XC2. It's clear Nintendo still cares about this game, even if it's not frsh out of the oven yet.
As for his Mii Costume, I'm making an exception because it was a bonus that was decided during the base game's planning. It's just some free thing that comes bundled with the full FP1. There's been more than enough time for Sakurai to go back on his decision.
Want: 60%. He's not overly high on my list, but I'd be fine with him. I have a friend who wants him, and I want to see how the Blade system would translate to Smash. Plus, there's a metric ****load of great soundtracks missing from Smash that he could bring. As the musicman, that would make me very happy.
Funny Purple Man
Chance: 35%. Waluigi is a massively popular request, no doubt about it. Heck, he even got actual news sites reporting on him. The problem is, he's just Waluigi, for better or for worse. He's not tied down to a specific game, he doesn't have many Spirits that aren't much more than tangentially related to him, and his own theme is already in Smash. If we were getting Piranha Plant-esque solo fighters, I'd rank him higher, but we're not, so I'm not.
Want: 65%. Honestly? He'd be pretty darn funny. I was once wrapped up in the anti-Waluigi bandwagon, but thankfully I've grown out of that. He's funny, he can pull off wacky ****, and he's a recurring character. I'd be completely fine with him on his own, though I'd admittedly be a bit disappointed if a Challenger Pack covered well-tread ground again.

Nomination: Klonoa x15

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Xenoblade 2 mood:

Spoiler: Xenoblade 2 Music

Some songs to get into the Waluigi mood:

Spoiler: Waluigi Music

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Costume turned playable
Chance: 45%
Definitely among the likelier first-parties. It's hard to deny the inclusion of an Arms rep being the most beneficial to Rex with how both Arms and Xenoblade 2 were in pretty much the same situation. Still, I wouldn't say it guarantees Rex. Nintendo's sudden push for Arms gives me the feeling they have more plans for that IP than Xenoblade 2. We should remember that Nintendo chooses the lineup so Sakurai's fanboyism may not matter but the demand from the actual fanboys certainly does, especially with Rex being crazy popular in Japan.

Want 0%
I wouldn't be as mad at this inclusion compared to two years ago but I still wouldn't buy him. Rex and his game simply don't appealing to me and despite not having played a Xenoblade game, Elma would be my preferred. Being a first-party in general would likely mean he's competition to my most wanted.

2nd bud of all Smash jokes
Chance: 35%
Assist Trophies likely don't disconfirm because of Springman even being om the table during ARMS speculation. That said, being an Assist Trophy makes a character still more likely to be overlooked. Waluigi I consider a special case however. Amongst all the remaining first-parties in speculation, he's the one you could argue to be mainstream. His assist reveal was probably the biggest reaction the media had to a disconfirmation in Smash history. He'd definitely please normies, making him a smart financial decision, especially since his model's already there. Desinging the other aspects of a Challenger pack around him might be tricky but I'm not sure if that would prevent Nintendo from choosing him. I also think the Mario tournament happening so late this year holds some merit and it helps Waluigi just as much imo as a certain other Mario character. (so does a certain Brawl mod being taken down)

Want: 75%
Yeah I'm not made out of stone so I'd have no problem with Waluigi. Heck, with Paper Mario arguably out of the running Waluigi might've become my most wanted Mario character, even tho I often don't use him in the games he's playable in.

Deltarune content x15

 

[Sari]

Rex

Chance: 90%

Alright here we go:

• Sakurai greatly enjoyed Xenoblade 2 and even viewed it as a considerable achievement.
• Rex is a very popular Smash request especially in Japan even after his Mii Costume reveal.
• During the Rex Mii Costume reveal in the November 2018 Direct, Sakurai pretty much said “sorry Rex couldn’t get in” so he is well aware of his popularity.
• The Xenoblade series as a whole has also been becoming more and more popular each year especially with Xenoblade Chronicles: DE being one of Nintendo's main highlights of 2020. There's a good chance Nintendo could shill for it further by adding the protagonist of their most recent game. Yes Xenoblade 2 is a few years old but Nintendo is still keen on promoting it as seen in this official Nintendo magazine page from last month (for reference some more recent games like Three Houses and Link's Awakening had much smaller promotional space). Also we still got Byleth months after Three Houses released so timing shouldn't be too much of an issue.
• Sakurai said that had it not been for bad timing, a Xenoblade 2 character (AKA Rex) most likely would’ve been in the base game. You know what other series Sakurai said would’ve gotten a base game rep in that very same interview? ARMS. And we all know how that turned out.
• Speaking of ARMS, Min Min shows that spirits aren't a death sentence so Rex can easily be made a fighter with no issue at all.
• Existing Xenoblade 2 content in Smash is not an issue at all:
  • Rex's Mii Costume was a promotional one for people who bought the first Fighters Pass and was decided on before the base game launched. I think it hurt Rex's chance for FP1, but with FP2 essentially being like speculating for a new game I don't think it matters anymore especially with base game spirit promotions being a thing.
  • Some might say that Nia's Mii Costume would affect Rex's chances since they should've released it alongside Rex as a playable character. However we still got a Ninjara Mii Costume alongside Min Min despite there already being Spring Man and Ribbon Girl costumes in the base game. If Rex was added, they could easily just add a costume from one of the other party members (Morag swordfighter pls).
  • Min Min's spirit board shows that existing spirits can be reused for it, so the spirits of Rex's party members that are already in the game can easily be put up there. Also there are still a ton of other Xenoblade 2 characters to use as spirits (like Vandham, the blades, and the villains to name a few) so the current Xenoblade 2 spirits representing the entire game is absolutely not an issue here.
  • There are 3 Xenoblade 2 songs in Smash right now which doesn't mean much since Xenoblade 2 has a ton of tracks to take from. If Min Min could get 18 ARMS songs in the game then Rex could easily get just as much if not more.
  • And of course there is no Xenoblade 2 stage. Nothing to say here except that there are a ton of unique locations so they could easily make a stage that's not too similar to Gaur Plains (Leftherian Archipelago is my personal pick).

If there is one character I'd be willing to bet my life on happening, it's Rex. I can't think of any other character that has this much going for them. Rex really is the SSBU equivalent of Chrom so I think he's definitely gonna make it in.

Want: 100%
So first off I’ll post my usual Why I want Rex in Smash post that I’ve done for the past few ratings since my thoughts on Rex himself hasn’t changed.

Spoiler

It's crazy looking back on my experience with Xenoblade 2. At first I didn't really like it since I wasn't a fan of the battle system and the writing was cringeworthy at times. But after getting used to the combat and doing a bunch of sidequests, it became one of my favorite Switch games.

I'd be lying if I said Rex was some deep and complex character. For starters he's the textbook example of a Stock Shōnen Hero not to mention most of his English screams legit made me laugh when I first heard them. While my dream Xenoblade 2 pick would be Morag/Brighid (because flaming whip swords are a new level of cool), Rex would still be an amazing fighter thanks to his blade combos and of course Pyra (and possibly Mythra) being a part of his moveset.

Oh and Xenoblade 2's OST is phenomenal. If it hadn't been for my usual three song limit for the music posts, I totally would've posted the themes of Gormott and Uraya. The Mor Ardain theme (second track I posted in today's Rex music post) is also one of my most wanted music tracks for Ultimate. Not to mention if the Torna DLC is counted then we've got a ton of other amazing tracks available for Smash as well.

In addition to all of this, I’d also like to add that I’ve recently been playing Xenoblade Chronicles: DE and I’m loving it so far. So after experiencing all of the Xenoblade titles (except for X) I'd just like to say: this is a series that I really want to see grow. I think Xenoblade has more than enough potential to become the next giant Nintendo IP which is why I want Rex more than ever.

-----

Waluigi

Chance: Abstain
I'm really not sure where assist trophy's stand after Min Min so I'll abstain. I do think that Waluigi is one of the most likely to be promoted though if it were to happen considering his popularity.

Want: 100%
Please just give him his chance already Nintendo/Sakurai. He's one of the most hilarious Mario characters and one of the most frequently appearing spin-off characters not yet playable. He'd be perfect for representing all of the spin-off games from Mario Kart to the various sports titles. Waluigi is easily my most wanted Mario character and one of my most wanted in general.

-----

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x15

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining on chance for Rex. It's hard for me to judge his odds because he's in a legitimately weird spot compared to a lot of other characters. I will say, though, that he's one of the very few first parties I think has a non-zero chance at the moment.

Want: 0%
I'd really rather not have Rex. I don't like his design, his voice annoys me, and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 falls too hard into embarrassing anime tropes for my liking. It's the same issue I had with Fire Emblem Fates compared to the rest of the series. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is just kind of...embarrassing. As such, I'd rather not have Rex, especially since there are numerous other characters I'd like more. Not even just third parties. Not even just first parties either. There are other Xenoblade characters I'd prefer. Like Melia or Dunban and whatnot.


Waluigi Time.
Chance: 30%
He has pretty good odds for a first party, imo...but I'm nervous, not gonna lie. I think the chance of any Mario newcomer depends on whether or not they get revealed before the tournament. If the tourney goes by and fighter seven isn't a Mario character then hoo boy, this is gonna drop about 29 percent. I think the Assist thing is a total non-issue. It's the tourney I'm worried about.

Want: 100%
I love Waluigi. He's one of my favorite Mario characters, and I think he'd be super fun in Smash as a playable fighter. If I were to put a number on it, I'd say he's my third most wanted character that isn't already in.

Might do noms later.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Rex

Chance: 80% - One of the few characters that could basically be considered a shoe-in at this point. Second only to Shulk in iconicness for Xenoblade protagonists, it was his game that truly established the franchise and was a big success on Switch, plus Rex has a decent amount of fan demand in the West and is huge in Japan. A character Sakurai clearly likes, he was passed over in the base roster for being too recent like ARMS, and now with Min Min in he's almost inevitable at this point. The only thing that holds him back is his Mii Costume being a bonus incentive for the first fighters pass, but outside of that he has everything he could need. Popular, relevant, Sakurai likes him, no negotiations needed which makes him easier, and undisputed frontrunner for his franchise (Elma has considerably less fan demand and Nintendo doesn't care much for Xenoblade X compared to 2, remakes have never gotten promotional picks so another Xenoblade 1 rep is out, Jin and Lora (while protagonists of standalone game Torna) aren't as iconic or requested and I doubt they'd prioritize Torna over the main event)). Everything is looking fantastic for Rex!

Want: 35% - Playing half of Xenoblade 2 has warmed me up to him a bit (but nowhere near the levels of "OH MY GOD I SUDDENLY WANT THIS CHARACTER 100% IN SMASH OH MY GOD!!!!!!!!" levels that fans of animeesque JRPG/Persona characters expect people to have after playing said characters' games.), and while I do like his personality (even if he's a little vanilla, he's a good person and has a fun attitude! What's wrong with that?), JRPG gameplay doesn't really keep me playing. It was alright and doing team combos is fun, but the gameplay hasn't been fun enough to make me want to pick up the game again. Plus there are plenty of other first party characters I'd much rather see. So while I'd definitely be fine with Rex being in the game, he isn't topping my want list any time soon. Still I think he'd be fun! I just hope his spirit board comes with some new spirits. I know there are plenty in-game Xenoblade 2 spirits that could fill one but having only base game spirits on an advertised DLC spirit board would honestly be pretty lame, especially with so many important Xenoblade 2 characters that don't have spirits at all.

Rex is second only to Dughall as the best second Xenoblade rep.


(They Call Me) Waluigi

Chance: 50% - Waluigi is honestly a coin toss at this point. On one hand, Nintendo is slightly teasing a new Mario rep for the second pass (along with a major competitor in Paper Mario down for the count), Waluigi is always relevant and HEAVILY requested, and his initial disclusion even made major news articles. Waluigi , alongside Isaac, is the most heavily requested character for an assist trophy upgrade. However, Sakurai has passed him over before, made fun of him, and that's not even getting into the Min min situation. Nintendo wanted an ARMS rep and more than likely let Sakurai choose. Sakurai wanted Min min or Ninjara, Yabuki wanted Min Min, and the mutially agreed upon character was chosen. If Nintendo had been a little stricter they could've pushed for Spring Man but the fact he wasn't chosen shows that they either aren't upgrading assists or are simply saving this honor for another character (an assist trophy being introduced and then upgraded in the same game would've generated bad publicity, especially since fan-favorite assists have been waiting since Brawl). Nintendo may push for Waluigi this time around, it really requires someone to pull the trigger at this point. And Waluigi has plenty of Sports and Party content he could come with, along with plenty of music and spirits (the Party series has plenty of OCs, plus spirits like MC Ballyhoo can be reused as evidenced by Min Min's board). "He'd have no content for a challenger pack!" would be a non-issue.

Want: 100% - Waluigi's by far one of my most wanted characters and would be a hilarious addition to the game. His moveset would no doubt be funny and unorthodox (could even have silly RNG elements to simulate Mario Party). He's heavily requested and has been in (almost) every Mario spinoff since his introduction. Plus Party and Sports have little to no representation in Smash, and those are major pillars of the franchise! Why not represent them? Waluigi feels like one of the only characters missing at this point. His reason for omission is honestly stupid (the only difference between him and Daisy is the latter appearing as a glob of pixels for 5 seconds at the end of Super Mario Land). He's funny, could play uniquely, would represent two pillars of the Mario franchise, what's not to love?


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Austin the Butler x10

think the chance of any Mario newcomer depends on whether or not they get revealed before the tournament. If the tourney goes by and fighter seven isn't a Mario character then hoo boy, this is gonna drop about 29 percent. I think the Assist thing is a total non-issue. It's the tourney I'm worried about.

Though even after that people will still believe a certain character is a 100% lock sadly.

and there's six main villains of varying importance

That was one of my big issues with the game, especially how they just felt super thrown-in without thought (and the character design one one of them feels like it belongs in a completely different game), and understanding them basically amounted to a message saying "Come buy our Torna DLC!".

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Waluigi

Chance: 0% I consider ATs a death sentence and while there's nothing stopping Sakurai from promoting one in terms of programming, I feel that him asking Yabuki which ARMS character to add means he didn't default to Spring Man due to his AT status, especially as Sakurai's preference went to Ninjara instead of the main face of the game.

Want: Abstain, no strong feeling one way or the other


Nintendo's Harem Protagonist who was last rated 3 months ago and didn't need nominations for some reason

Chance: 0% "We got ARMS content! Rex confirmed! Spirits don't deconfirm, Rex confirmed!" is the reason why people suddenly expect him to happen as Sakurai said he shot him and Spring Man down for the base game for their games not being far enough in development to accurately represent in Smash, which Sakurai learned after adding Roy before his entire character was finalized whereas Pokemon are so simplistic that they don't need personality, story and gameplay mechanics taken into consideration. "But that was the past! We got Min Min! Rex confirmed!" you may say, and to that I say, Nintendo wanted to promote ARMS as a franchise as it only had 1 game but they want to make it bigger. Rex's game is already a franchise, so unless they specifically want to make XB2 bigger instead of Xenoblade as a franchise, they wouldn't pick him, but rather a character from the latest installment, which came out 3 months ago or if they're working on a Xenoblade game and it's almost gone gold somehow, the protag from that. When it comes to rotating casts, Smash only went back to older installments for the most iconic character in said franchise, who's already in with Shulk, or a quick echo, something that wouldn't work for Rex and isn't being sold for DLC

Want: 0% I absolutely despise XB2 and damn near everything about it from it's presentation, art style, voice direction, gameplay, writing and influence on the franchise judging by Future Connected, so Rex is already an incredibly hard sell, but EVERY moveset I've seen fans make is either "Oooh he swaps a fire sword for a light sword" or "My waifu sits in the back and looks pretty while Rex does all the work!". For me, weapon switching should feel more different such as idk, Dante switching his typical sword for his motorcycle or electric guitar weapons and while you can point to Min Min being simplistic like Rex would be, I didn't find her weapon switching to be very fun, so I wouldn't find it fun for anyone regardless of my opinion and as for the second one, that sounds so easy to both overpower and underpower that it sounds laughably unfun to me, especially as instead of feeling like you're a team, it can easily end up making Pyra feel like a ball and chain.


Nominations: SMT rep x15

 

[Calamitas]

Sakurai said that had it not been for bad timing, a Xenoblade 2 character (AKA Rex) would’ve been in the base game. You know what other series Sakurai said would’ve gotten a base game rep in that very same interview? ARMS. And we all know how that turned out.

Based on PushDustin's Tweet, the quote doesn't actually say that. It just explains why they didn't make it, not that they would have made it.

 

[GoodGrief741]

"Let's show 'em a thing or three!"

Chance: 99%
I'm incredibly confident in Rex being in. He's the man who has everything. Owned by Nintendo, popular, from a successful game, in a franchise that's growing rapidly and could use the Smash boost, Sakurai himself apologized for not making the guy playable, and now ARMS got a fighter. I'll be shocked if the Pass is over and he didn't get in.

Want: 100%
Mostly because I feel like he got hella robbed, so he gets the sympathy vote for me. But I also really like his design and he'd have a cool moveset.

The Purple Man

Abstain on chance

Want: 100%
Waluigi's iconic, he's funny, he's a cheater and a loser and I just can't help but adore the guy. After all these years, he should get his break.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x15

 

[YoshiandToad]

Waambulance
Chance: 3%
An Assist Trophy which...had Springman busted the rule would probably be seen as far more likely.

Having seen the recent Mario Direct and finding out Nintendo apparently had BIG PLANS for Mario and friends this year that got messed up due to the dreaded covid-19, I can see a Mario cast member making it onto Sakurai's list. Heck, Paper Mario and Captain Toad IMO may have just got a few percentages boost.

Waluigi on the other hand...well, he's in an odd position. He's popular, he's known to be wanted by Nintendo but he's also not really part of the Super Mario Bros. celebration it seems with Waluigi not making even one appearance in a platformer title which this is celebrating. I think his assist status and Nintendo not really seeming to push Waluigi are pretty damning. Sakurai also seems to not care about the character much so that's another possible factor.

Waluigi only really has fan demand, but even in that he's competing with Geno and maybe Paper Mario for a popular Mario character inclusion.

Want: 75%
If it wasn't for the lack of playable Toad, Waluigi would likely be much higher in want for me, but until that day Waluigi only sits at the bottom of my top ten list.
I like Waluigi a lot, certainly more than Daisy, Rosalina, Jr, Plant and Doc but he's not exactly a vital member of the Mario cast in the same way the Toads are.

In a perfect world(or rather MY perfect world) we'd have recieved Waluigi and Toad/Captain Toad for Ultimate as the two Mario characters over Daisy, who is basically a glorified alt for all her differences to Peach, and Piranha Plant who is a joke character who is mildly amusing at best and a clunky mess of a fighter at worst.

Get Rextz son
Chance: Abstain
I'm struggling to decide if Rex is now the most likely Xenoblade character or not. With Xenoblade Chronicles DE releasing this year and being a pretty big success, it's hard to say if Xenoblade 2 is where the next Xenoblade character would come from. Sakurai has apologised for not being able to include him, so that's a point in his favour, but what's to stop Fiora from making the leap over Rex and Pyra at this point? And what if Xenoblade X also gets re-released? Do they go to Elma, Fiora or Rex?

Want: Abstain
Not familiar enough with Xenoblade 2. I may just watch the cutscenes at some point.

Nominations:
Bowsers Castle X 5
Lu Bu X 5
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd X 5

 

[Lionfranky]

Sorry again. I don't have enough attachment on either of these to rate.

Nom: Neptune from Neptunia x 15