Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Deleted member]

We really out here pretending Cacomallow is real in 2020 huh

I mean it’s not debunked yet.

 

[Flyboy]

I mean it’s not debunked yet.

We've had two characters since.

The Doom guys have said they haven't been able to make much headway into getting into Smash.

It took place on Yggdrasil's Altar during a time people were thirsty for KOF and Terry info.

It's been proven to be able to be replicated.

It featured specific shoutouts to people who would know about the Ken leak.

Prognosis: not good.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I feel like the CacoMallow leak might be like 25% real now. But there is a limit to how far in advance that something can be reasonably developed. I say if Fighters 6 and 7 are not Geno and/or a Bethesda character, then CacoMallow is certainly fake at that point.

 

[Deleted member]

We've had two characters since.

The Doom guys have said they haven't been able to make much headway into getting into Smash.

It took place on Yggdrasil's Altar during a time people were thirsty for KOF and Terry info.

It's been proven to be able to be replicated.

It featured specific shoutouts to people who would know about the Ken leak.

Prognosis: not good.

And yet, Doom content is still possible. Doomguy doesn’t have to be playable for us to get a costume. It hasn’t been replicated that high quality.
Prognosis: still in the air.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Disney is known to be very hard to negotiate in regards to fighting games (read: Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite). And as well, he also is partially owned by Square who has A: Geno, and B: Is also very difficult to negotiate with. I just don't see this happening.

We rated Sora not too long ago and I already countered both these points. Please stop spreading falsehoods.

Both Cacomallow and the Mii Costume leak show that a Mallow mii costume is coming, and Geno is in neither as a mii costume

Assuming either of those are true.

View attachment 260852
This is the Mii Costume List. It was first posted on Discord to a few people on July 19th 2019. It's existence was only made public on October 18th 2019 when Papa Genos made a video mentioning it. So far, it has correctly listed 4 of it's 7 costumes. For clarification, Mallow/Smithy is supposed to be two separate costumes.

This is the video Papa Genos made wherein he made this Mii Fighter list public. (Relevant time code is 5:43)

View attachment 260853
This is the second list. It was provided by the same guy about a week or so before Terry's presentation, and everything it listed was correct. Initially it was assumed that these items were for Mii Fighter costumes, but it was later shown to have been for Terry's Spirit Board this whole time.

So, one leak gave 6 Mii Costumes, then later (I assume) clarifies that they actually meant 7. Why did they know 3 Mii Costumes so far in advance? If this was pre-Banjo, then we've gone three characters without those Costumes coming. Yeah, timeline doesn't work. Probably someone who had legit info and mixed in some bull****.

The Terry stuff is laughable, you don't get to type out "Classic SNK costumes" then pretend it was meant to be a Spirit list all along. Not to mention those characters are incredibly easy guesses regardless.

I mean it’s not debunked yet.

Neither is my claim that Fighter number 9 is Bad Box Art Mega Man. Or the fact that unicorns exist. Turns out that's not how facts work. Proof is positive, not negative.

 

[Perkilator]

Uh, guys? We’re getting a bit off topic.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Geno

20% chance

I was gonna go lower. I heavily considered it. But I had just enough faith that Geno could pull through.

Geno is a very easy character to discuss since the same arguements have existed for a long time. He has niche appeal and a strong fan base. His history is unique and likely never gonna be revisited. Basically, does Geno with his large fan support outweigh the fact he is a bandwagon character with no future?

When Geno got the Mii costume and we started going into Ultimate, I was way more confident. I felt that with Ridley and K Rool in, Geno seemed inevitable. With Banjo, you think I would have been steeled. Spirits might deconfirm, but Geno would be a special case right?

Here is the thing though: Geno ultimately I feel would have been in the base game if he were to get in. The fact he is a spirit is bad in my eyes, but the longer time goes I feel Geno is more unlikely. I see 2B as more likely than him, which should say something about how confident I am.

20% want

yeah.:. Usually when I give these sort of want ratings, it’s a sympathy towards fans. I might have hated the idea of Shantae in smash and still do, but I would give her fans a token present of want.As time has gone by, I have become bitter to Geno again. I never had the strongest attachment to him. If he gets in I will be happy for his fans and the smash community, but do not expect me to be hyped.

I will post sora’s Score later.

 

[wynn728]

It literally doesn't matter if the Cacomallow leak is real or not, it's not like Geno or Doomguy is getting in Ultimate anyways.

The Doom series is basically nonexistent for the Japanese audience, so he has no chance in getting. The best that Nintendo and Sakurai would be willing to do is make Doomguy a Mii Costume since it takes less effort to make.

Geno is just a character that people should give up on. They had their chance in Smash 4 base roster and didn't do it. They had their chance for Smash 4 DLC, and they made him into a Mii Costume. They had their chance in Ultimate's base roster and they put Piranha Plant in and turn Geno into a Spirit. They had their chance with the Fighers Pass, which was suppose to be the last content added to Ultimate and they still didn't put Geno in. What makes this fifth attempt any different? They already know Geno was very requested back then so it's not like Sakurai and Nintendo received some kind of revelation about Geno's popularity. It's just time to give it a rest.

 

[MisterMike]

It's been proven to be able to be replicated.

Oh, it's been replicated? Do you have a link?

So, one leak gave 6 Mii Costumes, then later (I assume) clarifies that they actually meant 7. Why did they know 3 Mii Costumes so far in advance?If this was pre-Banjo, then we've gone three characters without those Costumes coming. Yeah, timeline doesn't work. Probably someone who had legit info and mixed in some bull****.

Because DLC is usually developed pretty far in advance. For example, very recently there was an article posted on NintendoLife that references an interview that Gameindustry.biz had with Craig Duncan, the current head of Rare Studios, regarding Banjo getting into Smash.
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20..._super_smash_bros_ultimates_banjo-kazooie_dlc
"Minecraft had paved the way for that relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft. I met with Nintendo at the E3 before we announced it. And then we connected our teams, because we thought it seemed like a great opportunity."

This confirms that talks about getting Banjo into Smash began around E3 2018. If this is the case, it wouldn't be a stretch in any way for his Mii Costumes to have been made well in advance, or at the very least decided upon. I honestly have no idea why the idea of stuff like Mii Costumes being developed months before they're released is so hard for people to accept.

It literally doesn't matter if the Cacomallow leak is real or not, it's not like Geno or Doomguy is getting in Ultimate anyways.

The Doom series is basically nonexistent for the Japanese audience, so he has no chance in getting. The best that Nintendo and Sakurai would be willing to do is make Doomguy a Mii Costume since it takes less effort to make.

Geno is just a character that people should give up on. They had their chance in Smash 4 base roster and didn't do it. They had their chance for Smash 4 DLC, and they made him into a Mii Costume. They had their chance in Ultimate's base roster and they put Piranha Plant in and turn Geno into a Spirit. They had their chance with the Fighers Pass, which was suppose to be the last content added to Ultimate and they still didn't put Geno in. What makes this fifth attempt any different? They already know Geno was very requested back then so it's not like Sakurai and Nintendo received some kind of revelation about Geno's popularity. It's just time to give it a rest.

ok doomer

 

[Deleted member]

It literally doesn't matter if the Cacomallow leak is real or not, it's not like Geno or Doomguy is getting in Ultimate anyways.

The Doom series is basically nonexistent for the Japanese audience, so he has no chance in getting. The best that Nintendo and Sakurai would be willing to do is make Doomguy a Mii Costume since it takes less effort to make.

Geno is just a character that people should give up on. They had their chance in Smash 4 base roster and didn't do it. They had their chance for Smash 4 DLC, and they made him into a Mii Costume. They had their chance in Ultimate's base roster and they put Piranha Plant in and turn Geno into a Spirit. They had their chance with the Fighers Pass, which was suppose to be the last content added to Ultimate and they still didn't put Geno in. What makes this fifth attempt any different? They already know Geno was very requested back then so it's not like Sakurai and Nintendo received some kind of revelation about Geno's popularity. It's just time to give it a rest.

Good to know Wynn. Good to know.

 

[Malo Mart]

I've never done this before, but I'll give it a shot.

Geno

Chance: 85%

Simply put, this is the best shot Geno's ever had! Massive fan request for about as long as Smash has existed (much like , and ) with his popularity even being acknowledge by the game's creator. His parent company already has their two largest franchises repped and seems to be more open allow their content in the game. MIA costume back when it made the most sense to appear in 's presentation. Mii Costume list and the 101% true and real Cacomallow (did I mention it's real yet?) heavily implying him being a playable character. This is it, y'all.

Furthermore, I absolutely do not believe Spirits deconfirm. They'd hardly matter in FP2, since it was planned well after development of base game Spirits was done, unlike FP1 which was planned while the game was still in late development stage. To add to it, the recent name change with the Dimitri and Hilda Spirits sets a precedent for what would happen to Spirits of characters that might be added to DLC. And as for his supposed irrelevance, well...

"It's more important that the character is fun to play, not just recognizable" - Masahiro Sakurai

Enough said. I'm not giving Geno any higher of a rating to not seem overly optimistic, but rest assured, there's no other character I'm as confident in being a part of FP2 as much as him.

Want: 100%

Yeah, the fact that he's the one reason I even joined Smashboards to begin with says it all. I didn't grow up with Geno like many did, but once I started using the internet more often, I saw how much of a cult following he had and understood why he was wanted very easily. I supported him for a while, particularly after Ridley blew our collective minds and left the doors of speculation wide open, but it wasn't until I played SMRPG later in 2018 that I really started to want him. I love Geno, I love his design, I love his unique set of abilities, I love the game he is symbolic of and the legacy it's left with two (mostly) amazing RPG series starring Mario, I love much of his fanbase is and how dedicated it is, I love it all! I draw many parallels between him and , whom I also have a similar history with and just as much appreciation for. If not for how long I've been wishing for Waluigi and Bandana Dee, he'd straight up be my most wanted Smash character. Not bad for a "literal who".

Sora

Chance: 40%

Ok, I'm nowhere near as confident with Sora as I am with Geno. Not just with how likely I think he is, but just... in general. Is Disney a problem for him? Is the fact that Kingdom Hearts has very little presence in Nintendo platforms and absolutely nothing on the Switch much of an issue? Is another Square rep (like say, a certain puppet I just talked about) the death of his chances? I honestly don't know. Putting that aside, I know Sora has been blowing up as far as fan requests go, and I wouldn't be surprised if they stretched back to a while ago either. And Kingdom Hearts is definitely popular enough and has a legacy that other series wish they had. But there's too much uncertainty with other aspects for me to rate him any higher.

Want: 30%

Sora's... ok I guess. Tell the truth, I used to have KH1 and 2 as a kid before I even got into Nintendo and a played a lot of them, but Sora and the other original characters didn't do much for me back then and I doubt it'd be any different now. I mostly liked those games for the gameplay and for the Disney characters and locations, which I absolutely do not want in Smash as to not open the floodgates for the other so called 4th party characters (not that Sora would have to bring them with him, of course)

On the flipside, he does have a lot of supporters I'd be happy for, a potentially very flashy and interesting moveset and I just can't say no to that Yoko Shimomura soundtrack, man. I'd be open for his inclusion, but overall, meh...



Nominations:
Doomguy x5 idk
Abstain

 

[Firox]

We really out here pretending Cacomallow is real in 2020 huh

To be fair, it would be the first gameplay video leak to ever be faked if it isn't. Bowser Jr, Shulk and Ken were all leaked via gameplay footage and every single one was real, but if you'd rather blindly dismiss anything that doesn't fit your narrative, carry on.

It's been proven to be able to be replicated.

Since we want to play that game, source?

 

[Flyboy]

To be fair, it would be the first gameplay video leak to ever be faked if it isn't. Bowser Jr, Shulk and Ken were all leaked via gameplay footage and every single one was real, but if you'd rather blindly dismiss anything that doesn't fit your narrative, carry on.

I mean it's been proven that Mii heads with jiggle physics are able to be modded in complete with custom screen, select screen, and gameplay footage, and before this we've had things like faked Spring Man and Decidueye footage in prerelease and fake Palutena renders in 3DS and of course Rayman in Sm4sh's character select screen but, like, aight.

 

[Firox]

I mean it's been proven that Mii heads with jiggle physics are able to be modded in, and before this we've had things like faked Spring Man and Decidueye footage and fake Palutena renders and of course Rayman in Sm4sh but, like, aight.

Sweet anecdotes. Now again, source?

 

[Nemuresu]

Geno:
Chance: 60%-Not gonna lie, I find him to be one of the most likely newcomers, simply because I believe there will be another fan favourite in the Pass just like Banjo. I think that's more than enough to consider Geno a front-runner. And no, I don't believe any leaks unless Vergeben has something to say about it, since he's the only guy with any track record as far as these last months are concerned; even if some people find his costume leak to have come out too late, it's way bigger of a credential than some guy Papagenos told everyone to have leaked a bunch of costumes in the past instead of showing that back when they weren't a thing, only for his latests batch and his latest character to not pop up at all; and a gameplay video of a bunch of mii costumes that Nintendo never took down unlike all the Shulk and Bowser Jr. footage from Smash 4.
Want: 40%-Yeah, I've kind of grown bitter with the little guy, because there are other characters I'd rather support now. Doesn't mean I wouldn't be happy if he actually appeared though.

Sora:
Chance: 75%-I find him to be a greater front-runner towards that "masses appealing" spot that I mentioned. It's not like negotiating with Disney is super-impossible, given Nintendo themselves could work with Marvel for Ultimate Alliance 3, Namco made a brand-new game with their license and Sega was able to get two Mickey Mouse games for the Genesis Mini. Worst compromise I can imagine is that Sora won't have an english voice because Smash is a non-union project.
Want: 50%-I'm not interested in seeing Sora that much, since he doesn't have any particular moveset that really catches my attention. But I have a brother that really wants to see him, and since I've got Terry, I want him to get his top wanted as well.

Prediction:
Heihachi: 45.19%-I'm gonna cover some of Heihachi's counterpoints when the day comes, but I feel like some of them will wind up with some low scores.
Nightmare: 18.27%-I'll be sincere, Nightmare doesn't really looks like he stands a chance against other Namco characters.

Nomination: Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Abstain on Geno

Sora
Chance:10%.
I admit there is probsy gonna be some trouble getting him

Want 100%
But I really really want him anyway

Nom: Cyrus Albright x5

 

[Flyboy]

Sweet anecdotes. Now again, source?

Anyway.

Geno
Chance: Abstain
Geno is the weirdest character in Smash speculation, man. I remember being a tiny baby in 1999 and logging onto the Smash Bros section of VGChat.com and seeing user Peach talk about how much they wanted "Geno from Super Mario RPG" in "Smash for Dolphin". He's had fans forever and they've come and gone and come back as the years have went by. There's the Mii costume possibility lurking on the horizon. There's the fact that no one actively knows why Nintendo hasn't just bought the character back or...something. The rights are a mess but he's also in one of the most unique situations of any big time Smash request out there. It's complicated, too complicated for me to assign a number to.

Want: 60%
He's neat! He's a cute little doll and very nostalgic for a lot of people that aren't me. But I absolutely understand his appeal as a character. As mentioned I've always held him in my heart because of how Peach wanted him (and they supported my dream of Marina Liteyears so, y'know, you don't forget the people who told you you were cool when you're 12) and I think he has a lot of charm to him. He reminds people of a simpler time, kinda like Banjo, and Mario RPG is a really nice game. I'm not attached to him, but I have friends who want him and I want to see them happy. Let's go Geno.

Sora
Chance: 25%
Sora is another weird one, though not for the same reason. I don't think Disney would stonewall it but there's a lot of question as to how he'd work exactly. The dude has tons of moves, but hey, I'm not Sakurai. I'm sure he could find a unique tenet to focus around and make him work. Kingdom Hearts in Smash is a series that Just Makes Sense. But it's also one I could see being passed over because negotiations for him aren't going to be easy. That doesn't mean impossible though and if anyone can do it, Sakurai can.

Want: 80%
Iconic. Tons of moveset potential. Games I'm a fan of. My partner wants him. Defined a genre and a generation. Yet he's not really on my most-wanted list. He's a character I'd love and I'd smile super hard for and I can just imagine a trailer where he gets a message in a bottle and he is just bursting with great music and moveset potential and stage potential, even without the Disney stuff, so why not?

Of course if he did get Disney stuff we'd be one step closer to Scrooge McDuck and I see this as an absolute win.

Nominations: Ring Fit Adventurer x5

 

[MisterMike]

That's not evidence that it was faked, though. All that shows is that it's possible. In order to prove definitively that it could be faked, someone would need to make an accurate recreation of them working in-game, which still hasn't happened yet.

Geno
Chance: Abstain
Geno is the weirdest character in Smash speculation, man. I remember being a tiny baby in 1999 and logging onto the Smash Bros section of VGChat.com and seeing user Peach talk about how much they wanted "Geno from Super Mario RPG" in "Smash for Dolphin". He's had fans forever and they've come and gone and come back as the years have went by. There's the Mii costume possibility lurking on the horizon. There's the fact that no one actively knows why Nintendo hasn't just bought the character back or...something. The rights are a mess but he's also in one of the most unique situations of any big time Smash request out there. It's complicated, too complicated for me to assign a number to.

Want: 60%
He's neat! He's a cute little doll and very nostalgic for a lot of people that aren't me. But I absolutely understand his appeal as a character. As mentioned I've always held him in my heart because of how Peach wanted him (and they supported my dream of Marina Liteyears so, y'know, you don't forget the people who told you you were cool when you're 12) and I think he has a lot of charm to him. He reminds people of a simpler time, kinda like Banjo, and Mario RPG is a really nice game. I'm not attached to him, but I have friends who want him and I want to see them happy. Let's go Geno.

Y'know, I've always heard Mischief Makers was a really good game. Can you confirm?

 

[NintenRob]

That's not evidence that it was faked, though. All that shows is that it's possible. In order to prove definitively that it could be faked, someone would need to make an accurate recreation of them working in-game, which still hasn't happened yet.


Y'know, I've always heard Mischief Makers was a really good game. Can you confirm?

What sort of goal post moving is this? He wasn't even asked to definitively prove its fake. He was asked to prove it can be modded.

And why would anyone blindly believe something that has very clearly been shown as possible to fake. That the absolute dumbest **** I've heard.

Can we end this day quickly so Geno fanatics can back to their echo chamber

 

[MisterMike]

What sort of goal post moving is this? He wasn't even asked to definitively prove its fake. He was asked to prove it can be modded.

Yes, he didn't say that exactly. But him saying "It's been proven to be able to be replicated." is still incorrect. The word replicate primarily means "to make an exact copy of; reproduce.". While people have made similar hats to the ones in the image and videos, there has not been one successful recreation that replicates what we see in the CacoMallow Post. The following is a comparison image I made of the Cacodemon Hat from the CacoMallow Post, and two immitations made to be passed off as the same one seen in the CacoMallow Post.

Left: CacoMallow Post
Middle: Blender model
Right: In-game mod

Notice the red lines I've applied to the image. They are there to showcase one of the most consistent flaws in these recreations, that being their inability to perfectly encircle the Mii's face. The right image has very obvious clipping that the CacoMallow Post version does not, and the middle image doesn't encircle the Mii's face whatsoever. While they are similar hats, they are not replications, and unless there's some sort of really high-quality mod I've missed, so far we have yet to see an accurate replication.

And why would anyone blindly believe something that has very clearly been shown as possible to fake. That the absolute dumbest **** I've heard.

I did not say that I believe it 100%, in fact I would never say that. While I do find them to be very believable looking, there's still the possibility that it was indeed faked. However, after 3 months of nobody being able to accurately replicate what we've seen, I do believe the chance of that is somewhat lower that the opposite hypothesis. But aside from that, if all you're going to do when people bring this topic up is dismiss it as ridiculous, why should it matter to you? Unless you're planning on actually talking to people who believe this may be real, and providing sound counterclaims to their assertions, then I would suggest shutting up and simply ignoring it, because whining about people disagreeing with you won't make them go away or stop saying the things you don't like.

Can we end this day quickly so Geno fanatics can back to their echo chamber

>Can we stop talking about Geno so the people who disagree with me can leave my echo chamber?
We're allowed to be here, and we're not doing anything against the rules. I'm sorry we say things that disagree with what you believe, but we can't help that we like to discuss things like this.

 

[NintendoKnight]

Geno
Chance - 50%

His chances have never looked better, especially since his costume still hasn't reappeared.

Want - 90%

I want very few characters now after everything Ultimate's given us. Geno is among them, and I truly hope he gets in.

Sora
Chance - 45%

Not really sure where his chances stand. Disney said they'd ok the character if asked for him.

Want - 40%

His series is fun, though I've only played 1(+ the DS version of 1), and Chain of Memories and don't really have a huge amount of love for the character. Would be nice to see him though, and I feel he would deserve the spot if he gets in.

Nominations: Dante x5

What sort of goal post moving is this? He wasn't even asked to definitively prove its fake. He was asked to prove it can be modded.

And why would anyone blindly believe something that has very clearly been shown as possible to fake. That the absolute dumbest **** I've heard.

Just a note: This does not mean that the leak is fake. This video proves that it's possible to mod Mii Fighters. But the hard part was not the model but rather the texture. I can't compress the texture due to it being over the compression size. So I posterize it to make it lower.

— Migz92398 🌐 (@Miguel92398) November 9, 2019

Just to note, this tweet is by the guy who posted the video. Basically he says that while modding is possible, the quality is the hard part. The quality of the leak is very high, something that modders have yet to replicate due to how the dev team compresses the textures.

We're not the ones shifting the goalposts if the guy who made that video as evidence for modding says the leak isn't debunked by it. Nice try, though.

Can we end this day quickly so Geno fanatics can back to their echo chamber

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm sorry, why is CacoMallow unironically being discussed again?
It's been three months, we've had two sets of costumes release since the leak and neither hat is amongst them.
Fighter 6 isn't releasing for another few months at best, I severely doubt these hats were made this far in advance.
Since Doomguy also got deconfirmed, this really feels like a grasp at straws from Geno fans specifically.

 

[Firox]

That's not evidence that it was faked, though. All that shows is that it's possible. In order to prove definitively that it could be faked, someone would need to make an accurate recreation of them working in-game, which still hasn't happened yet.

Whoop, beat me to it. Yeah, I wanted a source that demonstrated the full replication of the "leak", not proof that a costume mod was possible. We already knew full well that such a thing is NOW possible, however it's interesting to note that the modding community as a whole hadn't even though such a thing was possible until AFTER the "leak". To reiterate your point, I've yet to see a full replication, nor has the alleged "faker" ever come forward to claim credit for their work which is unusual for what would otherwise be an excellent demonstration of mod skills.

 

[Deleted member]

I'm sorry, why is CacoMallow unironically being discussed again?
It's been three months, we've had two sets of costumes release since the leak and neither hat is amongst them.
Fighter 6 isn't releasing for another few months at best, I severely doubt these hats were made this far in advance.
Since Doomguy also got deconfirmed, this really feels like a grasp at straws from Geno fans specifically.

If I had a dollar someone calls us Geno fans straw graspers and echo chambers, I’d be a rich man by now.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

If I had a dollar someone calls us Geno fans straw graspers and echo chambers, I’d be a rich by now.

Well you wouldn't be if it weren't so true.

 

[MisterMike]

I'm sorry, why is CacoMallow unironically being discussed again?
It's been three months, we've had two sets of costumes release since the leak and neither hat is amongst them.
Fighter 6 isn't releasing for another few months at best, I severely doubt these hats were made this far in advance.

Ultimate was in development since around the end of 2015 when the DLC for 4 was finishing up.
The Ken Leak was out for four months before Ken was officially revealed.
Talks for getting Banjo & Kazooie in Smash were confirmed to have started at E3 2018.

Why is it so hard for people to believe that things are developed long before they're released? Why is it that everyone seems to believe these DLC things are released as soon as they're done rather than being developed when they can be and then left to sit until the proper time? Do you actually think that's how game development works? Do you really think Sakurai and company work that linearly with this kind of stuff?

Since Doomguy also got deconfirmed, this really feels like a grasp at straws from Geno fans specifically.

First off, Doomguy wasn't 100% disconfirmed, though I'm not gonna disagree that it's not a good sign. And second, just because Doomguy isn't getting into Smash as a fighter doesn't mean that no DOOM content will be coming to the game whatsoever. It's still possible that we could just get a costume or two and that's it.

 

[Malo Mart]

I'm sorry, why is CacoMallow unironically being discussed again?
It's been three months, we've had two sets of costumes release since the leak and neither hat is amongst them.
Fighter 6 isn't releasing for another few months at best, I severely doubt these hats were made this far in advance.
Since Doomguy also got deconfirmed, this really feels like a grasp at straws from Geno fans specifically.

I really wouldn't put it past them to have have Mii Costumes that far in advance actually. Sakurai and crew work on several fighters/stages/costumes/etc at a time, and some of those assets can be done or at least close to done way ahead of time. For example, Banjo's presentation was recorded all the way back in July despite him dropping months after in September, and of course, his initial showing at E3 a month prior to that was also fairly late in development. With that in mind, would it really be that much of a stretch that some Mii Costumes would be tested in November, be done some time after and held back for later until whenever fighter 6 or even 7 releases? I don't think so.

Also I'd argue Doomguy isn't quite deconfirmed. He might not seem as likely now, sure, but Marty Stratton's interview really just left things ambiguous. Say, if Doomguy really is in Smash, how exactly would he answer to the question of whether he's in or not? Any other answer but a drawn out "no" would come off as a soft confirmation at best and a hard one at worst, and break an NDA.

tl;dr Cacomallow is real, babyyyy

 

[GoodGrief741]

As always debate is encouraged, just remember to keep things civil and keep things on-topic.

Minecraft had paved the way for that relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft. I met with Nintendo at the E3 before we announced it. And then we connected our teams, because we thought it seemed like a great opportunity."

This confirms that talks about getting Banjo into Smash began around E3 2018. If this is the case, it wouldn't be a stretch in any way for his Mii Costumes to have been made well in advance, or at the very least decided upon. I honestly have no idea why the idea of stuff like Mii Costumes being developed months before they're released is so hard for people to accept.

It's one thing for discussions for licensing to have begun one year before reveal. That makes sense.

It's another, completely different thing, to have already licensed, modeled, and fully implemented two Mii Costumes to be released nearly a year later. It's too easy a job to be done so early in advance.

Is the fact that Kingdom Hearts has very little presence in Nintendo platforms

I would hardly say that KH has little presence on Nintendo, Chain of Memories and Dream Drop Distance are two of the most important KH games story-wise and Days isn't too far behind.

Doomguy x5 idk

Sorry, but you can't give nominations for Doomguy. We've already rated him a couple of days ago.

All that shows is that it's possible. In order to prove definitively that it could be faked,

If it's possible to be faked then it's proven that it could be faked.

Y'know, I've always heard Mischief Makers was a really good game. Can you confirm?

Not Flyboy, but I can confirm that it's great. Super fun, very inventive.

 

[Calamitas]

He is called Sora, yet he does not soar

Chance: 30%
Sora's chances are certainly not too bad. Sure, people bring up the entire Disney connection as a legal rights nightmare, but from Disney's side, we've already heard that they'd be down for it. The question is, though, are Nintendo willing to spend the money on the rights, and would Sakurai go for Sora, considering that it'd be kinda tricky for him not to acknowledge the Disney connection in any form. Considering Sakurai's insistence on "video games only" when it comes to Smash, I feel like this is a notable hurdle.

Want: 25%
I'd be alright with him. I've never played a single KH game - still holding out hope that this compilations are coming to Switch one day - but I know enough about the series. Still, far from my most wanted.

Can we please stop rating this character already

Chance: 1%
A side character from a decade-old game that initially never even released in Europe (and I assume also not in Australia/Oceania), who is already represented as a very prominent Spirit in-game. Considering that we now know that future DLC will follow the same model as the Fighter Pass, I just don't see it at all. Geno coming with his own music, stage, and a whole set of Spirits? Extremely unlikely. Besides, the character would only really appeal to an extremely niche but vocal sub-set of the Smash fanbase. Other fan-favourites, like Ridley, K. Rool and B&K at least had a wider appeal than just that.

Want: 0%
Never got the hype, never will. Last time around I think I gave him about a 10% want rating, but this good will has worn out already. There's still countless characters that I'd much rather see that him. Hell, I'd take multiple Fire Emblem protagonists over Geno.

Nominating Octopath Traveler rep x5

Predictions:
Heihachi - 46.24%
Nightmare - 12.58%

 

[Pinguino21v]

Rate Geno from Super Mario RPG as well as Sora from Kingdom Hearts.

Geno

Chance: 15%
I firmly believe he is not that important in Nintendo mind. Moreover, by being owned by Square-Enix, I think they will want another of their characters to be promoted instead of him, namely 2B, Lara Croft, somewhat Sora, eventually a FFXIV rep, or maybe Neku. Geno may happen only if Sakurai still want it and Square-Enix get a good deal of it.
However, I believe he has a strong chance of being back as deluxe costume.

Want: 0%
Same argument as the other people. Nothing new, it's a character really polarizing. Moreover, I would be pissed if he get in before some other recurrent wanted characters.

Sora

Chance: 50%
Disney isn't that much a problem I think, on the contrary, but we're still in the dark. There are 6 slots, and they will need 2 or 3 heavy hitters; there's not much left.

Want: 85%
I loved Kingdom Hearts back in KH1 and KH2 days. Nowadays, it has been demoted, Sora is not my first want, but it's still a game I like and would be pleased to get him. He also has great potential for a moveset.

 

[Ben Holt]

My god, a better duo could not have been more perfect for my short and sweet commentary.

Geno:
Chance: 100%
Out of all possible characters, I am no more sure of anyone's chances than I am of Geno's.
He's coming.

Want: 90%
Honestly, if I were offered only one Mario character, I'd rather have Toad (with Toadette), Waluigi, Paper Mario, or King Boo.
But Geno is definitely unique and a cult favorite like Banjo-Kazooie, who went almost immediately from Phil Spencer's approval to being playable. Since Melee, people wanted Sonic, Mega Man, and Ridley. We waited 6 1/2 years for Sonic, 13 for Mega Man, and 16 for Ridley. Sakurai has **** teased us with Geno for long enough; I think it's time.

Sora:
Chance: 0%
Disney.

Want: 50%
I personally don't care whether he makes it or not, but YOU guys clearly want him, and I support any character that makes people happy.

 

[Ninjaed]

Geno

Chance: 0%
The one thing Geno has going for him is a dedicatd and vocal fanbase. How big it is is actually fairly ambiguous... not like it matters at this point. Geno was rejected once during a time when it'd have made more sense to include him and no reasons were given, unlike Heihachi or Dixie Kong. That basically means there was no one reason to reject him and it simply didn't work out. Today, those reasons likely haven't changed and Geno only exists within a smash community anymore. You don't hear talk of Geno within the Mario fanbase, he's become largely irrelevant to them, souring the one good point Geno had.

On top of that, he's already a spirit and it stands to logic that Sakurai made spirits of characters who are never going to become playable. Those who could've been may have been withheld, possibly to be released at a later date in a Spirit Event (e.g. Resident Evil, Astral Chain...). Those were circumstantial evidence. Then you have iconic status (while not as important as gameplay, it's still important and Sakurai never denied this fact) which Geno doesn't have... We're talking DLC pass where Geno has to compete with the likes of Dante who pioneered a whole new genre. Marking an entire generation of players. Forget it, Geno will never make it in as DLC. Base roster is another story, one we know about for this game, still unclear for the next one.

Want: 0%
I played and loved SMRPG years ago. Geno was my favourite character then. Now, I'm sick of hearing about him and sometimes I find myself projecting that frustration and hate on Geno himself. I just wish people would stop force-feeding us more Geno "leaks", "theories" and whatnot all the damn time (not necessarily in this thread but in other places). I've no issue with supporting a character you like but I've seen Geno fans acting entitled, belittling others supporting other characters etc... and of course, they (both sides actually) refuse to actually listen, birthing the same tired "debates" over and over again. This is toxic behaviour. I support Riesz, Isaac, Amaterasu, Eggman and plenty others but I won't shove it in everyone's faces. Ugh, sorry... this topic irritates me every time.

Sora

Chance: 60%
Kingdom Hearts is a massive and very well-known franchise. There may be some issues when it comes to licensing but that's not what could stop Sakurai. You know what could stop him? Preventing him from using a design he likes or a moveset he feels represents well the character. He admitted fearing to have to cancel the Pac-Man fighter project if his concept hadn't been well-received by Namco. He didn't want to use the latest Pac-Man design after all. Anyway, that's the biggest negative to Sora's chances I can see. Disney is known to have meddled in KH3's Frozen storyline and check youtubers etc adhere to their vision. If they try to cast those chains on Sakurai, Sora simply won't be in.

Want: abstain
His moveset could be interesting, could even include some Chain of Memories (with the card system) but I'm not really a fan of the franchise. I don't hate or even dislike it mind you. I just don't give it much mind is all. Hard to voice a want then, wouldn't you agree?

Predictions:
Heihachi - 38%
Nightmare - 3%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x10

 

[I.D.]

Geno:

Chance: 0.01%
I don't think Geno is coming because of that recent interview where some Rare guy talked a bit about how Banjo happened. Basically thanks to Minecraft the relationship between Ninty and Microsoft was going swell, so some Rare members saw their chance and contacted Nintendo and Sakurai to ask and negotiate for Banjo. Fan demand alone doesn't cut it, somebody in power also has to break the ice so to speak.
A few pages back I gave Kosmos a 1% because AT LEAST it looked like Tetsuya Takahashi from Monolithsoft and Katsuhiro Harada from Namco would ask for her, at least someone in both companies would show interest. Who exactly from Square-Enix (or Nintendo) is going to make that first move? Who in Square-Enix would make an attempt for this? It doesn't look to me this necessary first step exists at all.
Also I don't believe upgrades of any kind are happening. So there's that too.

Want: 10%
I admit his moveset would be probably be pretty nifty. But that's about it. I don't care about him. I have not played his game. I'd rather have other "living arsenal" type of characters before Geno.

Sora:

Chance: 10%
What Disney says and what Disney does are two very different beasts. That's all I can say. It's hard to talk about Sora since he's in such a peculiar position.

Want: 0%
Fans can scream all they want about how Sora doesn't need Disney. I don't buy it. He has the gatdam mickey mouse logo on his signature weapon. His main party members are Donald and Goofy who follow him almost everywhere. And if he truly is 100% owned by Disney do you think they would allow him with all Disney content scrubbed out? Nah. I never particulary liked Kingdom Hearts and I doubt his moveset would redeem him in my eyes.
"DISNEY BAD"
Yes. Keep that **** away from Smash.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

First off, Doomguy wasn't 100% disconfirmed, though I'm not gonna disagree that it's not a good sign. And second, just because Doomguy isn't getting into Smash as a fighter doesn't mean that no DOOM content will be coming to the game whatsoever. It's still possible that we could just get a costume or two and that's it.

Id confirmed they weren't approached by Nintendo at all. That should basically mean zero Doom content is coming to the game, no matter how miniscule.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Is the fact that Kingdom Hearts has very little presence in Nintendo platforms

Let me tell you why you are a 100% wrong about that

 

[Opossum]

Sora
Chance: 2%
This is the absolute most I can give him. Disney makes things a bit tricky. Yeah, one cog of the massive Disney enterprise said he'd be fine with it. They were also fine with MvCI, but still meddled with it quite a bit. Sakurai, being a creative, may not see it as worth it.

Want: 80%
That being said, Sora would be undeniably cool. Though knowing Nintendo they'd probably skimp out on paying union fees like with Cloud because they're cheap as hell, which sucks. That's the main reason I can't go higher than 80.



Geno
Chance: 0.01%
One percent of one percent. I firmly believe spirits are a death sentence, but Geno is one of the two I could see making the jump...but it's more than a longshot. Also Cacomallow being obviously fake doesn't help. Not sure why some are still clinging to it. Come on, guys. That's not a hill worth dying on.

Want: 10%
Geno's cool. That being said, he's also from Square-Enix. Considering we're absolutely NOT getting a THIRD pass, and I personally have a hard time believing that more than one of the final six will be from Square-Enix, Geno definitely loses points from me due to other Square-Enix characters being higher up on the hype meter for me. Characters like 2B or Lara Croft, or even going for a super long shot like Agent Otto from Elevator Action, would make me much more happy than Geno would. Add into that that if we're hypothetically upgrading a Smash NPC from the Mario universe, I'd also rather have Waluigi. Basically, Geno's neat, but he's definitely not my preferred Square-Enix choice, or my preferred Mario upgrade.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Though knowing Nintendo they'd probably skimp out on paying union fees like with Cloud because they're cheap as hell, which sucks.

No english sora would make me saaadd but just having sora would make me happy

 

[Opossum]

No english sora would make me saaadd but just having sora would make me happy

It's mostly just my own personal frustration with how Nintendo treats unions, lol. I'd elaborate more but this definitely isn't the thread for it.

 

[Malo Mart]

Sorry, but you can't give nominations for Doomguy. We've already rated him a couple of days ago.

Aight, I'm dumb dumb. Guess I'm abstaining from my nomination then

Let me tell you why you are a 100% wrong about that

-Chain of Memories
-358/2 Days
-Re:Coded
-Dream Drop Distance

4 games. Maybe saying "very little" was a bit much but it's certainly not a lot. Especially compared to the gazillion releases and re-releases the Playstation consoles got

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

4 games

yeah, 4 games that are veerry important to the series so id say down playing them is a mistake