Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

2B

30% Chance

... I do not buy it.

Tbh, part of my issue is that NIER has literally no strong relation to Nintendo. If we get a Switch port of Nier Automata Ill be happy since the game is great, but the fact is Nier and Automata both are not on Nintendo systems. Even Joker and Cloud, if their core games were not on a Nintendo console at the time, still had franchise roots that could be traced to there. Nier... does not.

Also just gonna bring up the fact that Square did get a fighter in the pass. While it is likely that they got one in FP2, I would be eying Capcom and Namco more, since Square, Konami, and Sega via Atlus all got newcomers. I feel more confident in those as well.

That being said, she is easily the most likely Square character in my eyes. Yeah, expect a surprising score coming from me tomorrow.

90% Want

Nier Automata is a super good game, probs one of the better ones I played this gen. 2017 was a stacked year in general, Persona 5, Mario Oddyssey, BotW, Crash remakes, Sonic Mania, you name it. I can say confidently that Nier Automata was one of the best games that year. Also the soundtrack is cool and I would love to hear it.

Also expect 2B to have shorts on under her skirt. If Bayo had to cover more with her smashes, expect 2B to have shorts.

Neku

5% Chance

TWEWY Final Remix sold ok, but given how Square is I would not expect a sequel until it happens. At this point, it will join FFVersus 13 Verum Rex into the Kingdom Hearts Universe as Nomura uses Kingdom Hearts to promote his ideas.

The big issue I think Neku would find is that TWEWY is just not that mainstream. Smash has let niche characters in like Bayo and Joker, but Neku is still pretty dang niche. Niche characters always get a bit of a reduction in my eyes. What he offers is a ton of moveset potential. But even then, idk.

100% Want

TWEWY is the best game on the Nintendo DS. Period. It has amazing writing, an amazing soundtrack, great sprite work, everything in it is so good. Final Remix is solid but if you wanna play TWEWY do the DS version please it is a near perfect game. One of my all time favorites. I have not made a formal top most wanted characters list, but if I made a top ten, Neku would have a strong shot.

Nominating Travis x 5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain. Haven't played either of these games.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain on both Neku and 2B. I don't feel like I know enough about either to make a fair rating

Noms Octopath Rep x5

 

[Sari]

2B

Chance: 35%
NieR: Automata received universal acclaim so I think 2B is a frontrunner for a second Square Enix rep for Ultimate's DLC. Sakurai is even a big fan of NieR, as he praised Automata and said that he's played every game in the Drakengard series. Sakurai was also a big fan of the games/series of just about all of the first Fighter Pass characters so we could see that come into play again with 2B's inclusion. The only really bad thing is that neither 2B nor the NieR/Drakengard series as a whole have that much connection to Nintendo. The closest thing I could find was an Automata collab for Phantasy Star Online 2 which is on Switch. Maybe a Switch port of Automata could be announced soon but until then I think it could be a setback for her.

Want: 80%
Now this was a tough score to give. I usually don't give actual want scores (let alone high ones) for characters whose games I haven't played, but 2B is one of the exceptions to this. I've seen and heard amazing things about Automata, but I haven't been able to play it yet is because I don't have a system that could run it (I know it's on Steam but my laptop is crap). If Automata gets a Switch port you can guarantee that it will be a day one purchase for me. While my want score would probably be even higher once I've played through the game, I know for the time being that I'd be down for 2B in Smash.

-----

And I thought I was anti-social

Chance: 5%
TWEWY was one of the most well-received games on the DS and it even got a Switch port recently. While there aren't any specific things holding Neku back, his main issue is the immense Square Enix competition that he faces in the form of bigger names like Geno, Sora, 2B, Lara Croft, etc.

Want: 70%
I played about the first third or so of TWEWY. It's a pretty good game apart from the awful joycon controls on the Switch version. Neku himself has a ton of moveset potential and I can see him being a very fun fighter. Also TWEWY has a great soundtrack and I'd love to hear tracks like Calling in Smash.

-----

Geno chance prediction: 35.89%
Sora chance prediction: 37.88%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

NieR: Automata received universal acclaim so I think 2B is a frontrunner for a second Square Enix rep.

Bold statement for someone within Thwack range.

 

[Sid-cada]

2B

Chance - 17.5% - I can see her getting in, in a simmalr situation to how Joker did. The thing is there is massive competition to who exactly should get in, between her, Lara Croft, Sora, and Geno, competition is tight. It's hard to say who will get in between them, and we aren't exactly certain a Square character is getting in in the first place. She's certainly a standout, but I can't say for certain who would get in between the major competition.

Want - 45% - I don't have any consoles she's on, so I don't care about her. While I might be won over by her moveset, I also can't shake the feeling she might end up being a second Bayonetta situation...


Neku

Chance - 1% - The World Ends With You has a small but dedicated fanbase. It's regarded as one of the DS's greats among those who played it, but sadly is mostly obscure by everyone else. Considering how big the competition is, though, he's not exactly in a good spot. While he might get lucky, unless there's something specific we don't know about, it's unlikely.

Want - 75% - Not a hunge want, but I think I would prefer him over most of Square's current line up. I'd think he'd be fun. I don't know why, as I never played his games, but the more off-beatness makes it appreciate it more, probably? It's strange, but I think he'll fit in better.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[BowserKing]

2B

Chance: 10%. We already have 2 Square Enix reps, and the competition between the other characters from that company is intense, but 2B could have a chance to be in the game. The 2 biggest issues is the competition from many fighters, as well as certain bias when it comes to Square Enix, but she could get in.

Want: 65%. She would be fun to play as, and her weapons would be quite deadly. Of course, there might be censorship issues that can be fixed, but I think she can work in this game. And who knows, we could see potential for that franchise to get in Smash.

Neku

Chance: 10%. Neku has the same issues as 2B, which makes his inclusion more difficult. His obscurity makes it more difficult, but then again, we have been surprised by obscure reps, so who knows what will happen out there.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as, and while I prefer it if 2B got in, Neku would be a fun inclusion as well. That is all I have to say about that.

Predictions: Geno (15%) and Sora (10%)

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Boss: Ender Dragon

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

2B

Chance: 40% - Basically what KOS-MOS wishes she was, currently a modern icon and her game sold 4 million copies, and tons of crossover appearences. Plus Sakurai is good buddies with Yoko Taro, basically what this thread has been saying. Sakurai pushing for a character like this isn't unprecedented, given Joker, so history could repeat itself here.

Nonetheless, while she has fan demand, it is only more recent when compared to her competition within Square Enix. Geno and Sora have been requested for years, and despite their disadvantages (lack of recency and spirit; ownership by Disney), that demand they've built up over the years could more than make up for it. 2B is getting there but hasn't come close to the sheer level of demand for her competition, especially Geno. Plus there's still competition from other SE characters like another FF rep, Lara Croft, Gex, or even an Octopath or Bravely character if they decide to go down that route.

Issues of CERO aside (they could easily make her more kid friendly), there's the lack of appearences on Nintendo system. Automata has no games on Nintendo. Nier has no games on Nintendo. Drakengard had no games on Nintendo. It could be another Joker situation but I don't think Nintendo would want to spend the money for her if she wasn't going to bring them some kind of benefit. Even Joker has the Q games and Scramble.

2B's chances are looking good but she's by no means a frontrunner.

Want: 5% - She's be a surprising third party choice, but from what I've seen and played of her game I wouldn't be very interested in her. Plus after Bayonetta, I fear for the meta with another Platinum-related DLC character, and I'd hate to see the final days of Ultinate be 2B vs 2B, a character with nothing to do with Nintendo.

Which reminds me of a similar character's situation: Dante. But there's a key difference that I respect here. Dante's developers wanted him to be on a Nintendo system before appearing in Smash, and now he's got his Switch ports. I personally believe that a character should have to have something to do with Nintendo before making it into Smash, and unless Automata gets a Switch port I'd rather not see her be included over a more Nintendo-focused character.

There's also the factor of inter company competition, since I'd rather see Sora or Gex.

Either way, I apologize for being rather pessimistic here. If she made it into Smash I'd understand why even if I didn't care for the decision. But at the moment there are other characters I'd much rather see.


Neku

Gonna abstain on both since I know almost nothing about the series. But despite the relevancy via the recent Switch port, Neku's competition is really what kills him here. And unlike 2B there isn't much fan demand for his addition. Being a Square Enix rep is an extremely competitive catagory.


Nominations:
Bubsy x10

Predictions:
Sora - 26.42%
Geno - 10.57%

 

[Calamitas]

Nier Automata, by William Shakespeare

Chance: 20%
This is probably a bit low, huh? Call it a personal hunch, but I just feel like she's just too much of a "major, simple pick". I just. . . can't really properly put into words what I mean by this. At any rate, I have some severe doubts as to whether or not we'd get yet another Square Enix character.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Nier Automata, so I can't really make any judgment based on its gameplay. What I've seen of it doesn't strike me as a very interesting basis for an interesting moveset, but I don't want to make a rating.

What? Neko?

Chance: 5%
TWEWY may have had a rerelease on Switch, but it still doesn't strike me as a major title for Square in any way. I cannot in any conceivable way see it as something that Nintendo or Sakurai would go for.

Want Abstain
I barely know anything about TWEWY. So, skipping the rating of that again.

Nominating Any Octopath Traveler rep x10.

Predictions:
Sora - 29.68%
Geno - 13.24%

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Geno from Super Mario RPG as well as Sora from Kingdom Hearts.

Predict Heihachi from Tekken and Nightmare from Soul Calibur.

Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Geno

Spoiler: SMRPG Music

Sora

Spoiler: Kingdom Hearts Music

 

[DaUsername]

2B
Chance: 30%
She might not be as big a name as the last 2 SE characters, but she's definitely possible. Her main problem is that we might not get another SE characters, and there are still other SE characters that could show up before her.
Abstaining from everything else.

Sora prediction: 40%
Geno prediction: 19%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The toy made on the night Santa went crazy
Chance: 15%
Again, Sakurai may want him but there's still two other parties involved. With the way DLC is being picked, Geno would have to get the thumbs up from both Square as well as Nintendo. Square might not care either way, but the latter would have to like him more to pick him over other many characters that would strengthen their bond with other companies and expand the world of Smash in a more meaningfull. He's not impossible but I don't see him being chosen over the likes of Travis, Rayman, Layton, Sol, etc. There's a reason he's called the child neither parent company wants custody for. I'm feeling enhanced Mii costume for the doll.

Want: 0%
One game, 25 years old, spinoff side character, third-party Mario character, milk, eggs, cheese, yadda yadda. This isn't the first time we've rated this doll, it probably won't be the last but I think I have already made my opinions clear on the puppet.

Say fellas, did somebody metion the door to darkness?
Chance: 1%
It's known Disney owns the full rights to him so Square might not have to get involved but that won't help much. Some Disney executive said they'd be fine with having Sora in the game, wether they would stay true to their word doesn't matter to me. I honestly doubt Nintendo would approach them in the first place. Rumours have been going around FP2 might have a decreased budget. Since FP1 arguably didn't contain a lot of major, big-hitter characters anyway and considering we're talking goddamn Disney here, I'd say Sora might be a bite Nintendo wouldn't be able to chew. He's a character I consider way out of their budget range.

Want: Abstaining

Heihachi: 36.24%
Nightmare: 17.88%
Reporter and Wrestler x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

We've rated both these characters not too long ago, already with the knowledge of more DLC. Even now knowing the structure of the next Pass, I don't think anything's changed for these two, so I'll just quote myself from back then.

Puppet

Chance: 49%
It's a testament to Geno's massive fanbase that I can't think of any reason against his inclusion, even though by all means he should be the longest of shots. Like, even if we presume that the next season of DLC will follow the same exact guidelines as this one, we would get all third-party characters (which Geno is), and we would probably get at least one huge fan demand a la Banjo (which Geno is). Base game Spirits don't matter from then on, his Costume is MIA, he has a stage and music he could bring, and even if DLC is sold individually, or without stages, he's also the kind of character that could come without.

Conversely, even if we get a focus on Nintendo stuff, or solely fanservice, or promoting characters in non-playable roles, Geno fits in.

We also know Sakurai wants him in, and Dragon Quest is out of the way. There's still solid Square Enix competition, but they all also have cons (Western, too new, owned by Disney, not as big, irrelevant). Geno could end up victorious.

Want: 100%
I'm a Geno supporter. I have been for over ten years now. And I will continue to be for another decade if need be. Geno, at this point, is already a Smash legend, without even being in. The most mainstream of gaming news sites, when reporting on fan-demanded characters, mention Geno. It's that bad.

SMRPG is a masterpiece and a classic. People will try to pretend like it isn't, like they now pretend that Banjo-Kazooie aren't icons and that their duology is some obscure unknown unimportant platformer, but I see the nuance where it is.

Let's just get Geno, alright?

Keymaster

Chance: 50%
At this point, Sora has everything going for him. He's incredibly iconic, successful, relevant, demanded, has Nintendo history, loads of moveset potential. He's one of the most wanted characters for Smash, in Japan and in the West, by casuals and the hardcore. He's the showstopper, anywhere and anytime you drop him you break the internet. He could be an E3 reveal or a Pass starter. The only thing I can pretty much guarantee is that he isn't FP5 because he's just too big for that.

Much has been made about the fact that Disney owns him, and would therefore either be hard to deal with or make Sora super expensive. Seriously? Do you honestly think that Disney cares about the Kingdom Hearts IP, or for that matter, videogames? Need I remind you that this is the same company that made EA turn off microtransactions for a AAA online shooter? As far as respectful representation goes, Disney always leaves this in Nomura's hands, and I'm sure that would be perfectly fine with Sakurai as well. As far as pricing goes? I mean, if push comes to shove, they can just have less music. I doubt it'll be anything more than that.

As for having Disney elements, I think KH can absolutely be represented just through its original elements and that doesn't remove anything or lessen its accuracy. Sora himself doesn't need Donald & Goofy in his moveset, he has more than enough to work with. Frankly, I'd prefer it this way. I like to keep Smash strictly about games.

As for competition, Sora is technically owned by Disney, but very much a Square Enix character. So characters like Geno and Lara Croft could be competition (imo he easily wins). And while I don't think the "one character per company" thing is a rule per-se, I do think it'll hold up. However Sora is the perfect loophole, and as Disney competition goes, we just have, like, Guybrush Threepwood and Manny Calavera, who, while cool, are probably not getting in soon.

As for whether Sora is a videogame character, of course he is you idiot.

Want: 100%
Kingdom Hearts is just great. It's so genuine and earnest. Sora goes beyond being a generic RPG protagonist and honestly becomes something truly unique due to just how pure he is. And I dunno, it's just this whole epic saga that I've been following since I was like 9. Seeing him in Smash would be amazing.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Heihachi prediction: 46%
Nightmare prediction: 30.2%

 

[Sari]

Abstaining on Sora.

-----

Geno

Chance: 35%
Geno has been a big Smash request for years and while the absence of his mii costume may not mean anything in the end, I'd say it is something to watch out for. He's still a Square Enix character though, and in regards to other SE characters he has a ton of competition with more publicly well-known names like Sora.

Want: 5%
Same song, different day.

Even after beating SMRPG many years back, Geno is one of those characters in Smash speculation who I just never got the hype behind. When it comes to Mario characters, I would rather see the more notable names like Waluigi, Toad, and Paper Mario. When it comes to Square Enix characters, I'd much prefer characters like Lara Croft and Neku to name a few. All in all, Geno is near the bottom of my want lists in almost every category he's applicable for. Had it not been for the Smash community I probably would've forgotten that he existed. Literally the only reason this isn't a 0% is because I'm ok with big Smash requests make it in.

-----

Heihachi chance prediction: 35.96%
Nightmare chance prediction: 6.31%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-2B/Neku Sakuraba pre-Geno/Sora

Freddy Fazbear x155
Kazuma Kiryu x145
The Blob (De Blob) x140
Crypto x125
Carmen Sandiego x125
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x105
Gex x100

100 - 51

Ryo Hazuki x80
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Reporter & Wrestler x70
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Chun-Li x65
Decidueye x62
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x60
Meowth x58
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x57

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x50
Big Daddy (BioShock) x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x40
Ring Fit Adventurer x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Paper Mario x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Concept: Darksiders rep x25

Under 25

Giygas x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x20
Mii Costume: Quote x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x15
Segata Sanshiro x15
Terra Branford x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Kratos x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Bubsy x10
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x10
Concept: DLC music packs x10
Black Shadow x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Guardian (Destiny) x5
Chell x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
Taranza x1

Travis Touchdown crosses 50 noms.

Concept: Darksiders rep reaches 25 noms.

A challenger approaches! It's Bubsy, with 10 noms. What could pawssibly go wrong?

 

[Deleted member]

Geno

Chance: 75% I believe with this second wave of DLC he’d get in He has a good chance and I think now’s the time to add him.

Want: 100% Oh yes 100 times over Great character amazing move concept. Very great addition if and when it happens. Really want him in hope it happens.

Sora

Chance: 75% I know people say Having to ask Disney would be an issue but I think if they want it. Nintendo they’ll get it.

Want: 100% Yes love Kingdom Hearts Definitely want him hope it happens.


Nomination Travis Touchdown

Predictions: Heihachi 48.8%

 

[NintenRob]

Oh just **** off with this character already.

Chance 0%
Want 0%
His a one off character from a game that didn't even release in my region until the Wii. I'm so sick of seeing this name ****ing everywhere with Smash. There are much better Mario characters (Captain Toad, Waluigi, King Boo) and much better square characters (Lara Croft, Agnes, Sora if you count him). He'd be a waste of a fighter pass because we already we already have a ton of Mario stages and songs. Both double any other franchises. Best he should get is a Sans and Cuphead treatment.


Sora
Chance 5%
Want 10%
I'm not convinced Disney not an issue for Sakurai. No non video game character is our only hard rule. And I don't think Sakurai would want to ignore them either. But who knows, Kingdom Hearts is pretty big. I'd rather Lara croft but I'm curious about Kingdom Hearts. I'd just prefer keep Disney away.

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

When it comes to Geno and Sora, we've rated them not too long ago. And ever since then, nothing has changed their chances. So I'll just quote myself.

Geno

Ok. Here is my chance to explain myself since I almost single-handedly nominated him up to the top.

Chance: 50%

Back in the last Geno rating, I gave him a 1% chance score. What changed? The fact that Geno's Mii costume did not come with Hero and the announcement of more DLC characters.

Here are my points toward his inclusion:

• Sakurai has wanted Geno for past titles.
• Geno is highly requested and one of the few longest requested characters after K Rool, Ridley, and Banjo. He does consistently well on fan polls.
• His Mii Costume did not return with Hero which is suspicious.
• Two songs (and those songs ony) associated with Geno were struck down by Nintendo. The same thing happened with Sans.
• Geno was requested enough to get a Mii Costume in Smash 4.
• There is nothing that directly says that spirits deconfirm characters.
• It would line up with the Mii costume leak that has mallow/smithy on it and has correctly predicted other Mii costumes like Rocket Grunt and Goemon and the Cacomallow leak which has not yet been disproven.
• Geno is in a similar situation that Banjo was in. "He's irrelevant." "No one knows who he is!" "He's owned by an uncooperative 3rd party company who will not give him up!" None of this stopped Banjo.
• Sakurai straight up said that it matters how fun the character is, not just how relevant they are. And Geno would certainly be a fun and unique character with his timed attacks.

With Sakurai wanting to please the fans, this is Geno's chance. Probably the best chance he's ever had. However, it is possible that his Mii Costume will return. I strongly believe that Geno will make an appearance in this game outside of a spirit. Whether it be playable or as a costume. Thus, I give him a 50% chance score.

The only thing really holding him back is competition from Sora and Lara Croft, who are more popular and requested. I would argue that Sora is one of the top contenders of DLC right now. However, he doesn't necessarily destroy Geno's chance as long as we get more than 5 DLC characters. Which is honestly a bit of a stretch considering we don't know anything about the post-pass characters, but considering everything I've stated, he has a very good shot.

Want: 80%

Not a 100? Indeed. I honestly just wanted to rate Geno again since so much has come out in support of him. I honestly don't have a lot of personal connection with him, but at the same time I really want him because he has been requested for so long and I think his fans deserve it. idk I guess I like to support some of the underdogs. Plus he could bring a cool moveset with him, as well as a neat stage and some jammin music.

Simple and clean is the way that you make me feel tonight...

Chance: 50%

Oh boy. There is a lot to discuss about Sora. I'll dive in with his positives first.

Kingdom Hearts is iconic and very popular worldwide. I've seen Sora rank high in fan polls and I'll even go as far as say that he is one of the most requested characters not in Smash yet. He's got fan demand from both east and west. Kingdom Hearts has an art style that would fit wonderfully in Smash. Sora has a lot of potential to be an interesting character, with his keyblade and his many magic/special abilities. Kingdom Hearts has had several appearances on Nintendo systems, mostly with their portable systems and I can see Kingdom Hearts getting a collection on Switch some time in the future.

https://www.hypable.com/sora-in-smash-ultimate-kingdom-hearts/

The above source states that Sora is owned by Disney (though they can't leisurely use him without going to Square Enix first). It also states that Disney is not very strict and would probably be fine with Sora being in Smash. So to the people that say that Sora has no chance because "Disney", that is not a big issue at all. Disney is not this stingy company that won't allow anybody else to borrow their IPs. And when it comes to a reputable series like Smash and a renowned creator like Sakurai, it's very unlikely that they would outright reject Sora being in Smash.

Now onto Sora's problems. One thing about Disney is that the licensing fees would probably be very high (just look at their DVDs/Blu-rays and merchandising which is high in pricing and rarely goes on sale). This problem would probably also involve the music, as the composer is known to be stingy (plus Square Enix's dumb 2 songs per game rule). I do think that Nintendo and Sakurai will make a valiant effort to get Sora into Smash before everything is said and done, but Sora might end up being a standalone DLC pack that will be slightly more expensive.

Now onto the elephant in the room: Kingdom Hearts being 50% Disney content (or in some cases more, cough cough Kingdom Hearts 3 cough cough). After seeing many discussions about this topic I can say with confidence that Sora would work fine without any Disney content. There are still plenty of Kingdom Hearts original locations, music, and characters that can be used for a stage and spirits while keeping the charm of Kingdom Hearts. Plus they can easily change the Mickey Mouse logo on the keyblade to something like the Smash logo. The problem with this whole thing is that Sakurai likes to keep franchises closely resembling to their home games as much as possible. Some people will say that just having Goofy and Donald in Sora's final smash or having some Disney characters be spirits would be okay. However, I'm not sure about that. Even including a tiny bit of Disney content would still open a can of worms and if there is one thing that Sakurai has stayed adamant about for a long time, it's that there will never be 4th party content in Smash. Again, it's totally possible for Kingdom Hearts representation to not have any Disney content, but if you remove 50% of the charm of Kingdom Hearts, is it really Kingdom Hearts at that point?

As for Sora's competition, I'm not sure how to feel about this. Disney does own Kingdom Hearts, but they still have to go to Square Enix for permission. So that might mean that Sora is competing against other Square characters like Geno and Lara Croft. I don't really know how to interpret this so I'll leave it there.

In conclusion, Sora has very high fan demand, Nintendo history, and Disney has seemingly already gave their blessing. But the fact that Kingdom Hearts is 50% Disney, combined with high licensing fees, means that there is a 50/50 chance of Sora getting into Smash. It really depends on if Nintendo and Sakurai wants to go through with the licensing fees and issues or not and if Sakurai is comfortable with Kingdom Hearts only having its original content represented.

Want: 70%

I haven't played the Kingdom Hearts games for too long, but they are definitely charming. I would like to see Sora get into Smash to see all his fans get hyped and be happy. Kingdom Hearts is huge, and deserves representation in the biggest crossover of all time. Finally, three words: Simple and Clean.

Predictions: Aloy - 0.50% (Sony character that isn't Kratos, Nathan Drake, Ellie, or Ratchet and Clank. Yeah no chance)

Noms: Crypto x5

Predictions:
Heihachi - 35%
Nightmare - 35%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Geno:

Chance: 50%

Want: 70%

I'll just quote my post from December on this since nothing much has changed since:

Geno:

Chance: 50% - Absolutely one of the most likely characters for post-Pass. The missing Mii Costume, Sakurai's own desire to get him in, Square maybe being more lenient after already having their two flagship franchises represented (if that was even ever an issue), and him being easily the most requested character for over a year now, he's got a lot going for him. The one thing that still stands in his way is his relative obscurity, Nintendo or even Square might fancy characters with a wider reach, or at least one that appeals to a different demographic than the one that already owns the game, but we literally know nothing about the post-Pass content, we can only make assumptions about how they might be picking characters going forward, so I'm not going to hold that as a strong point against him. Besides, when the core Smash fanbase gets hyped it tends to spread to the wider gaming community too, if Nintendo has observed this then that point won't matter anyways.

Want: 70% - Giving Geno a want rating gets more and more difficult over time for me. I'd really love to see him just for his fanbase's sake, it'd practically complete speculation, and the longer we go without him the more urgent his inclusion begins to feel, because it really would be a shame if he were to miss out on Ultimate. However, I don't have a huge personal desire to really play as him, I like him just fine, and he could potentially be a fun character to mess around with in casual matches and such, plus getting some SMRPG content would in general be neat as it's such a charming game, but I still don't really see him being someone that I'd end up playing regularly. I probably consider him the character we need the most at this point, but not one that I have any personal investment in, if that makes any sense. I'll still give him a positive rating though, because I would be legitimately bummed out if he doesn't make it, just more so on others' behalf than my own.

Sora:

Chance: 10% - I still think Sora is up against it due to the whole Disney ownership, I know many people dispute this (some more aggressively than others), but the counterarguments are largely based on assumptions and interpretations, and my own interpretation of the situation is that he's in a rough spot.

The primary issue I see is that Nintendo would potentially enter negotiations that they could quickly lose control of. In most cases Nintendo are bigger than the company that sits at the other end of the table, so that other company has a ton to gain from the exposure that Smash would grant them, and even then it's not always easy (we know for a fact that Square and Konami have been difficult in the past). The only exception to this is Microsoft, a company that Nintendo enjoy a very strong relationship with these days, and that are actively trying to build bridges between gaming's most influential studios. Disney is a completely different ballgame though, they're the media titans of the world and have no reason to do negotiations unless they're done under their premises, and there's especially no reason for them to compromise or flinch on something as small as a video game crossover appearance of one of their middling characters (at best, but probably not even that when you look at what they own).

Something that stuck with me when Sakurai talked about the inclusion of Hero was that he was genuinely surprised that Nintendo thought they could actually be successful in negotiating with Square for Dragon Quest content. If something like that was thought to be unbelievable, that begs the question of whether Nintendo will even as much as attempt to stick their hand in the potential hornet's nest that is negotiations with Disney.

With all that said, I'm not a man of absolutes, and I acknowledge that I may be wide of the mark with how I interpret the situation. There is always the chance that a character as big as Sora will be seen by Nintendo as being worth going the extra mile for, and perhaps they have managed to play their cards exactly right for it to go through. Should it happen it would be nothing less than a remarkable achievement on Nintendo's part though, I don't for one second buy that Nintendo can just waltz up to Disney and sort this deal out before breakfast like some people are making out, and I'm sure that if it were to become reality we'd hear a lot from Sakurai about just how monumental it is. The fact that Kingdom Hearts content would be in Smash would be huge on its own, but to have Disney's name in the game's credits? Now that would be a stunner, a real show of Nintendo's strength in forming strong relationships in the industry.

Want: 0% - And after writing so much stuff bigging up just how massive Sora's potential inclusion and Disney's involvement would be, I'm gonna end on a bit of a flat note here. I like Disney's old stuff, and I like Square Enix, but man do these two things just not go together imo. Kingdom Hearts will likely always remain one of gaming's biggest mysteries to me in just how much this series' supposed appeal flies over my head, there aren't a lot of things where I'm just completely flabbergasted over what the hype is about, but this is one of them. For the record I don't base this score off of any principles or anything like that, I sometimes see people who say they don't want Sora to get in because they think Disney is the devil, but that's not me, even if I'm hardly a fan of modern Disney and just wrote up a long post about how scary they are. My reason is as simple as not liking Kingdom Hearts and thinking Sora's design is ugly, that's really it. That does not mean that I'm blind towards how big of a deal he would be though, but because I don't like him I don't really care about that either.

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x5

 

[SSGuy]

Abstaining on Sora


I completely understand Geno arguments seems to be running in circles at this point but every single thing mentioned about Geno not having a chance to get in has been said about Ridley, K.Rool, Banjo etc. Really seems like it will only be a matter of time before Geno fans (and Lloyd Irving if we want to include all 5 of the biggest fan legacy picks for Smash) will get their fair shake.

However, there is always a closing window of opportunity and his window of opportunity has been slammed shut, ripped back open, bolted down, left ajarred, etc. It is really difficult to tell where he is. However, regardless of whatever Geno's fate may be, it is a ship I am willing to sink or ceremoniously parade with. He's been my most wanted since 2005 after all.

Chance: 50%
Want: 110%

Nominate: Sirfetch'd x5

 

[BowserKing]

Geno

Chance: 25%. He is higher then other Square Enix reps, due to being a Mario character. Leaks have increased his chance as well. Competition is still an issue, but it's not as strong as many others. Despite having a spirit, he could still have a chance to appear in this game, mostly likely in the second fighter's pass, but who knows who will show up.

Want: 90%. While I'd prefer it if Fawful or Dark Bowser got in, Geno would still be fun to play as. I mean even if Square Enix wont bring in too much tracks from Super Mario RPG, we can still get soundtracks from other Mario RPGS. Outside, Geno would complement the second fighter's pass. Plus we can have Geno team up with Bowser once more, which is a good thing.

Sora

Chance: 10%. Chances are, Sora cannot bring many of his buddies in the kingdom hearts games, without support from Disney. Competition from other Square Enix characters does not help Sora's case, but it does not mean that it's impossible. We have been surprised before, but who knows who will be next.

Want: 60% He would be fun to play as, and even if you cant get certain characters, you can just use similar characters or stage builder to even it out. There is some potential as well, and even if Sora is not playable, there could be loopholes for him to be in the game. Either way, Sora would be a fun addition.

Prediction: Heihachi (20%) and Nightmare (10%)

Noms: 1 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E), 2 for Giygas and 2 for Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates

 

[Jomosensual]

Sora

Chance 60 - Sora falls into the issue I mentioned yesterday. The Disney issue is overrated, but the SE one still exits. If Sora was a Capcom character I'd give him a really high score, but with the price for Sora likely being as high as it is and with SE likely to stiff Nintendo on content again they might decide it's not worth it and pick someone else. However, the first reveal in Smash is always a really hype one as seen with Ridley and Joker so he's getting a small boost from that. There's competition for that spot but very few have the same amount of check marks next to their names like Sora. If someone else gets reveled in that spot I'm likely to drop the chance lower.

Want 80 - No connection to the series or character, but this would still be a fantastic add imo. Extremely iconic, relevant, and requested. It's tough to find a character with a better resume than Sora.


Geno
Chance 30 - Oh boy, this is a tough one. Does fan demand beat relevance and probably the lack of anything coming in the future? It's really tough when the fan demand is the highest of all the requested characters but the relevance is probably the lowest. For SE I think this is a problem. Will they want to promote a character that they haven't used in a meaningful way in 25 years and are likely to not use ever again? Probably not. That being said, Nintendo also has to want him, and that might be an issue too. Overall I think there might be chance but I'm not feeling confident about it.

Want 50 - No real feelings either way. I'm hitting the Banjo vs. Steve and Erdrick debates point with him where I just want a definitive answer so we can finally move on to other characters. I was in high support of the fan base last time but now I'm just getting annoyed by them, especially the portion of them rejecting everyone who isn't Geno at this point. Just either do it or make it obvious you're not doing it at this point.

Predictions
Heihachi 40%
Knightmare 10%

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[Firox]

Geno

Chance: 80%. A good combination of leaks, historical fan demand, and a suspicious lack of pre-existing Mii Costume put him in a surprisingly good place for FP2.

Want: 100%. Anyone with an actual knowledge of the character and his moveset from the original game knows as much as Sakurai does that he'd be a shoe-in for Smash. Plus, FP1 was sorely lacking in "Gunner" archetype characters. It'd be nice to get fewer swordsmen in FP2.

Sora

Chance: 10%. Possible, but I'm still convinced that the red tape of dealing with both Disney AND SE will be a hurdle most likely left un-jumped.

Want: 75%. As a fan of the KH franchise as a whole, I would totally be hyped for his moveset and potential form changes (though I would prefer the KH2 form changes over the "Shikai/Bankai" Key Blade transformations of KH3).

Prediction: Travis Touchdown (15%)

 

[Jomosensual]

I'm getting amused by people using leaks as evidence of a character again. If they meant anything then Doom Guy, Ryu Hayabusa, and KOS MOS would all be in the game right now. Unless we're approaching a direct of some kind leaks don't matter

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know anything about Geno or Sora.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sora:

Chance: 40%
Want: 20%

Gonna repost my recent Sora rating since it hasn't changed much since then and there hasn't been any news that could affect Sora's chances.

Sora

Chance: 40% - Sora's a very iconic character from an extremely popular franchise, and regularly appears in a top spot on fan polls. Despite the main series Kingdom Hearts games not appearing on Nintendo systems, there's still the fair share of spinoff adventures such as Dream Drop Distance (though I don't know the series too well so feel free to correct me). That's still more than can be said for a lot of characters! While Sora's owned by Disney, they still need to negotiate with Square to use him, so with him also being Square on a technicality (and his games being made for them) I doubt he'll be FP5 (since there probably won't be double dipping). But post-pass DLC is a much different story!

Disney is surprisingly easy to negotiate with, and are no stranger to crossovers, so I doubt they'd deny Sora in Smash, especially given Sakurai's good reputation. While Sora could be done without any extra Disney content (there's many Kingdom Hearts-specific locations and characters, which could easily fill the stage and spirits), I'm sure Disney would allow for a few of their characters to make an appearance and Sakurai could allow it, as long as they stick to their game incarnations. Sora's just not complete without Donald and Goofy! But even if it came down to purely Kingdom Hearts-Original content, Disney I'm sure would make negotiations easy. The main issue on the Disney side is price. Licensing Disney-owned characters is extremely expensive, and Nintendo might not find the cost worth it. But I'm sure they could work out a good deal since both sides benefit.

Then there's the Square Enix side. Square is also pretty easy to negotiate with and has the advantage of legacy, having already negotiated two other characters for Smash. If Disney agreed then I don't see why Square wouldn't agree either. being Square though, the issue is music, though I doubt Sakurai would let that stop Sora. He'd figure something out, especially since some composers are more generous than others.

Overall, there's no downside to Sora's inclusion, and with both sides being easy to negotiate with and the fan demand behind the character, Sora's chances are looking good as ever!

Want: 20% - I've never played a Kingdom Hearts game myself, but the whole Disney element and Sora's unique weapon make him a more anime-esque character that I'd be surprisingly interested in seeing! He's really made a legacy for himself, and even if he was originally a joke and a pipe dream I think this is his time to shine. Plus I know his inclusion would make a lot of people happy!


Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
Aloy - 0.41%

Geno

Chance: 30% - This is honestly a super difficult call. Sakurai is going crazy with the fan service this game, and even Nintendo knows how profitable he'd be judging by the Mii Costume's special reveal last game. Furthermore, Cacomallow has yet to be completely debunked so that's another point in his favor. Everyone knows the demand for Geno and at this point it might just be enough to bring him to the roster this time. WHile he doesn't promote anything and is a one-off character from the SNES days, he may get in the same way Banjo did. Has no recency but is so popular and connected to Nintendo that he could easily be convinced to be profitable.

Though the rights tangle regarding him and his lack of recency may still come back to bite him. he could return as a premium Mii costume, seeing as two popular Super Mario RPG tracks were taken down on Youtube, and Nintendo proved with Megalovania that it can hint at a premium costume. But then again, it didn't happen with Cuphead and Floral Fury so it's all up in the air anyway.

Either way, there's plenty of hope for Geno!

Want: 20% - I don't have much of a connection to Super Mario RPG, but he's a long requested Mario character and I know he'd make a lot of people happy! Plus he could be worked into an extremely unique moveset!


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Heihachi - 40.82%
Nightmare - 14.75%

 

[Firox]

I'm getting amused by people using leaks as evidence of a character again. If they meant anything then Doom Guy, Ryu Hayabusa, and KOS MOS would all be in the game right now. Unless we're approaching a direct of some kind leaks don't matter

You're confusing leaks with rumors. It's entirely possible for a leak to be real as long as it has adequate substance and credibility. Tons of character leaks have ended up 100% real in the past. Bowser Jr, Shulk and Banjo to name a few. Doom Guy, Ryu and KOS-MOS were pushed entirely by rumors without any actual kind of evidence beyond hearsay.

 

[TriggerX]

Sora
Chance:50%
Want:100%

First and foremost, I think most people who believe Sora cant work without Disney characters really haven’t played the games. Now that I think about it Dream Drop distance is an entire game where Sora specifically isn’t accompanied by Donald and Goofy. Segments of Kh3 and CoM also show the same potential. He has a fluid design as well, so it’s not like that Mickey key chain is always visible
As far as Disney goes, Idk, it could either be a plus or negative in his favor. Nintendo wouldn’t be much of a company if it werent for their relationship in the past, and there are plenty of collaboration projects between the two companies to show that they are on good grounds with eachother. Unfortunately the fact that he’s tied up with multiple companies is a pain. Fortunately I don’t think there is a single issue that prevents him from joining the roster except for pure competition for a slot space and potentially budget restraints for dlc.

Geno

Chance:60%

Want:80%

I think Geno would be cool, he’s quite different from your other Mario characters in terms of ability , and SMRPG is one the best Mario games.
However if I had to be brutally honest, the only absolute evidence that he even stands a chance of joining the roster is due to Sakurai’s interest in the character for previous titles and the fact his mii costume is still missing. Although that’s not saying much, it’s still more than most other characters have received. Other than pure fan service, I can’t see why Nintendo or Square would waste their time putting resources towards a character that they potentially don’t end up using.

 

[Heoj]

Not super familiar with this but imma try.

Geno:

Chance: 99% - Oh yeah I just went there, I just went there and I ain't moving an inch! Is this risky, yeah but i just really believe its Geno's time. And if I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I simply believe.

Want: 100% - Geno is my most wanted along with phoenix wright and knuckles so I'm going all in!

Sora:

Chance: Abstain - I dont even know who properly owns sora/kingdom hearts so i cant say much anything of soras chances.

Want: 20% - ehh, not much for me to really say, Sora getting in would not be that exciting for me as that instantly kills one of my most wanted. A lot of people really want sora so if Geno gets in then ill probably raise my score on sora.

 

[Ridrool64]

They'll pay for this. - Mickey Mouse

Chance: 40%. Sora has everything that any character could ever want, and that's mainstream popularity. The character is from games that received worldwide attention and acclaim, have been asked for a Smash appearance for decades, and in general would make waves across media of all types, putting Ultimate on the map even further. I now believe that Disney actually will not **** it up in negotiations with forcing Mickey Mouse. But the problem is that he might actually be too big. Somebody who could only get in with a massive budget. Lara Croft is also a bigger name, but wouldn't quite as hard to get. 2B is a recent face that I could see worming her way in on the Joker clause. Disney is also bigger than Nintendo and could probably get away with having rejected a Smash character, if they haven't already. But overall I'd say Sora has a decent shot, though he's also all or nothing. Can't imagine Nintendo would even try for a Kingdom Hearts Spirit event or Mii Costume without getting the boy himself.

Want: 50%. I mean the guy deserves it. Kingdom Hearts has earned accolade after accolade, and for good reason. I think Sora would bring a lot of good content into Smash, Disney or KH original only content regardless. But I'm personally not a fan of KH so I don't care about him on a personal level.

The guy who lives in SmashFAQ's head.

Chance: Oh boy. I'm gonna give him a 15%. Geno's biggest claim to fame is his widespread fan demand, but I think that it's just... not good enough anymore. Up to this point, we've had characters whose biggest reason for getting in was fan demand, but... Ridley and King K. Rool were both Nintendo owned, and iconic villains from two of Nintendo's most popular franchises. The veterans already have Smash content to work off of. Simon Belmont is an NES icon, and Castlevania is a widely beloved series in general. Banjo & Kazooie were also third parties stuck between two gaming titans (Master Chief, Steve) that slipped through the cracks, but they also represent the fifth generation of Nintendo and were some of their all stars at the time. Geno... represents a spinoff series consisting of one game. He has a bit of legacy in the Mario series, but Mario's the star of Super Mario RPG. At this point, the moveset's the only reason he's not dead in the water. But I think his Mii Costume is, indeed, coming back at some point, whether it's a remake with a song or a port of the original. The fact that it didn't with Hero being a coincidence rather than indicative of something more. His base game Spirit I don't think is much of a problem, at least...

Want: 55%. Geno slips further and further down my totem pole of actual desires every time. The more I think about it, the less he makes sense, the less I feel the need, and overall the less I can really say I care. He's a drop in the bucket put next to Lara Croft or Sora, and I'd say even 2B has surpassed him in legacy at this point. If nothing else, he'll end all the arguments about if he should get in, and that alone is more than enough for myself. But if I just wanna play as Geno in Smash... the Brawl mods that have him do him so perfectly that I don't feel the need to play as an official version. The factor of being able to use Geno in a Smash setting doesn't help him in my eyes, because that moveset is so perfect that it reduces how much I actually want him, I don't think Sakurai's could compare. There's a reason why it's been almost a year since Frisk overtook him for my number 5 spot, and it's because Geno only really brings himself. Still, Super Mario RPG is damned great and a character from it would be fantastic too, and of course fan favorites can say they've earned a spot on that cred aone. But between him and Paper Mario, I'd take PM any day. Granted, Brawl mods can only take away so much, but that's a whopping -20% since it's so good.

Heihachi is widely considered likely, so 27.29%. Nightmare isn't Heihachi and is perhaps the most obvious form of competition, so 9.75%. Paper Mario x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Alright, anyone mentioning them 'leaks' better produce some evidence that there have been any leaks. Otherwise I'll consider them false statements and they won't count.

 

[MisterMike]

I think I may have rated Geno before, but what the hell, I'll do it again.

-= Geno =-
Chance - 70%
What can really be said about Geno that hasn't been said a hundred times already? The little guy has been able to amass a very vocal and dedicated fanbase that can only the likes of King K. Rool and Ridley can match. Unlike those two, he's manage to gain that kind of demand despite being a relative nobody with regards to gaming at large, whose most notable role has been playing sidekick to Mario in all of one game over 20 years ago with very few appearances afterwards. Depending on how you look at it, it's either incredibly impressive or downright baffling, but regardless of your personal feelings on the matter, it's no doubt a very good point in his favor, especially considering who else has managed to get in.

Spoiler: List of Characters

- Heavily requested since their game came out and often considered a shoe-in by practically everyone.
- Highly requested since Melee, often discounted due to be too similar to .
- You already know.
- Castlevania in general was a highly requested franchise in general.
- Very popular requests, and Sakurai specifically stated that they were included to cater to the western and eastern fanbases respectively.
- You already know.
- Astonishingly popular among more casual fans, became the de facto mascot on the entire Animal Crossing franchise after only one game.
- A popular request in general, but especially since Echo Fighters became a thing.
- Massively popular overseas, often thought of as incredibly unlikely or even downright impossible.
- You already know.

But it's not just fan demand that makes him so likely. One of the biggest points in his favor is that Sakurai had considered him for Smash not once, but twice. Hell, he's even gone on record noting Geno's popularity among as well as stating that he thinks Geno would be a great fit for Smash. How many characters can you say that for? Some might counter this by stating there was a "good reason" he didn't make it in both those times, but there's nothing solid on either end to prove anything one way or the other so there's not really much of a point in arguing that. After all, Smash is a big game, and there could be numerous reasons as to why certain characters didn't get in: Villager and Pac-Man were considered and passed up for Brawl due to being considered unfit for battle, but they made it in the very next game no problem.

There's also the lack of Geno's Mii Costume. So far, returning costumes have come back in groups of two, and Geno's Costume and the Chocobo Hat would have certainly fit with Hero's release, being owned by SquareEnix and all that. And yet, despite Hero being a SquareEnix character, despite SquareEnix being very weird when it comes to providing content for Smash (SquareEnix costumes come with SquareEnix characters only, each characters get 2 songs each, with each Hero alt apparently being considered a different character), and despite seeming like the most likely outcome, it didn't happen.

Spoiler: Spoiler'd for size

Now while all of us can agree that it's lack of an appearance is weird, there appear to be at least three prominent houses camps people have fallen into when it comes to explaining why:

1. Geno's Costume is still coming, and it will probably be released any day now.
2. Geno's Costume from Smash 4 isn't coming back, because it's being upgraded a la Sans and Cuphead.
3. Geno's Costume isn't coming, because Geno himself is coming to Smash as a fighter.

The first one is an insufficient answer for numerous reasons, but mainly because of how weird SquareEnix is with their contributions to Smash, namely with how they seem to prefer their content only be released alongside one of their characters. This would make it unlikely that they'd want these two costumes to return alongside some random character unlike Capcom or Ubisoft, who don't really seem to care. This would mean that, if these costumes were to come back, they'd have to return alongside another SquareEnix character. While this is admittedly is possible, you'd have to argue for who that other SquareEnix character would be and why they'd be more likely than Geno, and by that point you might as well just stop right there.

The second one comes up a lot, and I can totally see why people would consider this a likely option, but I also think a lot of the people who make this argument are the kinds of people who are heavily biased, perfectly willing to outright dismiss any character who isn't one that they actually want for any reason, no matter how flimsy, unfounded, or purely subjective their so-called "evidence" is.

The kind of people whose least wanted characters are entirely dependant on who's currently the most popular and most requested fighter at that moment, and who take great pleasure in telling other people who want those characters that they're never going to happen because they're simply sick of hearing about them everywhere, using the aformentioned terrible "evidence" to try and convince them otherwise.

The kind of people who, if "Deluxe Mii Costumes" were a known thing before Ultimate was released, would've argued that King K. Rool could've been one with a Gangplank Galleon music track, or that Banjo & Kazooie should be relegated to a Mii Costume with a Spiral Mountain music track so the more "popular" Steve from Minecraft can get in. After all, both King K. Rool and Banjo are irrelevant to gaming as a whole and are only highly requested by Smash fans and nobody else.

I really think that people are kind of missing the point of Sans and Cuphead being Deluxe Mii Costumes. Everyone seems to think that because they ended up being made into those, any character they don't want can just be relegated to a Deluxe Mii Costume because "Hey, as long as it works!". While there have only been two examples of this kind of thing thus far, it seems that the kinds of characters who get this sort of upgrade are either:

1. Popular indie characters who they think wouldn't cut it as fighters. (Basically everyone, if Shovel Knight is any indiecation.)
2. Characters who aren't indies or massively popular, but are still somewhat well liked.

Geno doesn't really fit either of these criteria since he's not an indie, and is significantly more popular than most when it comes to Smash character requests. The same goes for Lloyd Irving, for Heihachi, for Phoenix Wright, for Master Chief, for Crash Bandicoot. Can you imagine any of those guys being relegated to a full-body Mii Costume and a music track? I don't think so.

The third one, I feel, is the more likely scenario here. If Geno's Costume was coming back, it would've come back with Hero. Given how SquareEnix has released their content, I'm very doubtful that Geno's Costume will be released with anyone else. Given the two kind of Deluxe Mii Costume we've got, I doubt they'd make such a highly requested character like Geno into one of those either.

Another point in Geno's favor is the potential leaks that have come out pertaining him. To keep it brief, since there's typically quite a lot to be said regarding these:

• The Mii Costume List, which contained almost all of the Mii Costumes that came with Banjo, a Mallow costume, a Smithy costume, and the returning Chocobo Hat, with no mention of the Geno Costume. The person who shared this list also shared a list of Terry's Spirits, which were all correct.
• The CacoMallow Post, which still hasn't been disconfirmed almost 3 months after it was posted back in November.

All of this stuff together really gets me thinking Geno has a great shot at making it in.

Want - 60%
I'll admit, I've never played Super Mario RPG before, nor am I that personally attached to the character like most others. However, I find the discussion around the character to be entertaining, and I'm all for showing support for characters who I think has a good chance of making it in. Besides, I've already gotten most of the characters I've wanted in Smash already, so I might as well.

-= Sora =-
Chance - 50%
Unlike most people, I don't think the whole "being owned by Disney" thing is enough to prevent him from getting in. At this point, I think if Sakurai wants to use a character, he'll be able to get that character. Since there hasn't been much either way in terms of reputable leaks or rumors that would imply Sora will or willn't get in, I think he could go either way.

Want - 50%
Never played a Kingdom Hearts game, and I don't really care to, either. The plot is a colossal mess that, while fascinating, isn't enough to make me want to get into the series in any way. That said, I wouldn't be upset if Sora got in, as there would no doubt be more people out there who would absolutely freak out over that, and that's always fun to watch, so whatever.

I predict Heihachi.

 

[Deleted member]

Gonna repost what I said about Geno for today since nothing has changed on what my thoughts are on him:

Chance: 0.1%

I'm 1 of the people that think spirits are not eligible for DLC unless Sakurai makes a character who is 1, but because spirits =/= deconfirmed is a "see it to believe it" case, it makes it hard for me to believe a spirit will become playable in the future. Geno happens to be a spirit, so I can already rule him out on that basis despite the fan demand, the MIA mii costume, and that hat leak. The main question we should be asking for Geno is why did Sakurai settle for a spirit instead of a fully fledged fighter when he's said in the past that he wanted Geno in Smash and Squaresoft allowed Sakurai to make spirit battles out of him and Mallow? Ridley, K Rool, and Simon were all added to Ultimate because of the Ballot, which was a glorified popularity contest, and Banjo-Kazooie had no presence in Smash before his reveal. I don't believe for a moment that Square Enix would be the 1s that prevented Sakurai from adding him as a fighter because Geno wouldn't have been a spirit at all if that were the case.

Want: 10%

I'll keep it short. He just doesn't appeal to me, and fan demand isn't going to cut it for wanting a character because I'll be far more interested in seeing how people react to him being in it than wanting to actually see/play Geno in it.

--------------
Sora Sora Sora the Exploraaaaaa

Chance: 25%

When it comes to talking about Sora, I don't see Kingdom Hearts lore colliding with other Disney properties being a drawback since Kingdom Hearts has enough original characters in the games to at least fill in for Smash, and Sakurai probably wouldn't even care about it that much if Sora is going to be in the game anyways. You could also believe Sakurai wouldn't want Sora in Smash because the possibility of bringing him back in the future Smash games would be nearly impossible (which was what I used to believe in around the time I first rated Sora), but since Hero probably won't be in a future Smash game with Dragon Quest music requiring a percentage of Smash sales, that could be ruled out. The only question that could be asked is can Nintendo and Disney work out a deal for Sora in Smash?

Honestly, I don't know. Disney could always try to get it their way when it comes to negotiations like when they initially wanted a 50-50 revenue split with Sony over the Spider-Man movies, but then again, Nintendo did publish Epic Mickey in Japan which does show Disney can be cooperative with video game publishers. Sora may be 1 of the most fan-requested characters in Smash to date, but because Disney is the most unpredictable factor here, I can't really rate his chances any higher than a quarter.

Want: 20%

Tbh, I don't have much to add here. Aside from me not liking Disney all that much, Sora and the Kingdom Hearts game don't appeal to me, but unlike Geno, I do have a bigger preference for Sora mainly because he's a way bigger character than Geno ever was and would probably have a much more preferable moveset for me. It may be predictable that the reactions he'll get are closer to Banjo-Kazooie's, but I can't deny Sora would somewhat interest me despite how low the score is.
-------------
Predictions:
Heihachi: 34.54%
Nightmare: 11.12%
--------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital rep x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Mii Costume List

Source?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sora
Chance: 55%
One of the most highly requested characters and part of a well beloved franchise. I'd say his chances are decent.

Want: 100%
Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite franchises so I really want him in. Same as I said before.


Abstain on Geno.

Noms: Chun-Li x5

 

[3DSNinja]

The Star Sent Saviour
Chance:100%:

Now before people start saying that I'm being completely ridicoulous, hear me out on this one!
Points:
1.) Neither he nor Chocobo's mii costumes returned with Hero, when EVERY OTHER DLC CHARACTER had returning Mii Costumes with them.
2.) Both Cacomallow and the Mii Costume leak show that a Mallow mii costume is coming, and Geno is in neither as a mii costume.
3.) He's a fan favorite that Sakurai has stated multiple times that he wants to put in the game.
4.) It has been proven by the Three Houses DLC that spirits can be renamed, which means that they could rename the existing Geno spirit to something like Geno (Super Mario RPG).
And Cacomallow everyone almost certainly knows about by now.
The Mii Costume leak was a list of ALL of Banjo's mii costumes, Akira, Smithy, and Mallow given to PapaGeno's in July.
Want:100%:
YES.
Geno is one of my most wanted for a reason. He has a badass design, comes from an amazing game that is one of the best SNES JRPG'S. As well, he would represent the Mario RPG's, which desperately need representation in Smash Bros. Also, he would provide some variety to the cast that is desperately needed.
Oh boy...
Chance:1%: I don't see this happening. Disney is known to be very hard to negotiate in regards to fighting games (read: Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite). And as well, he also is partially owned by Square who has A: Geno, and B: Is also very difficult to negotiate with. I just don't see this happening.
Want:0%: Note, this isn't because of the character. Sora getting in Smash would be awesome and I'm down for it. But I don't want Disney anywhere NEAR Smash after what they did to MvC. Sorry, I can't reasonabally say i can want Sora in Smash because of this. He would be cool... but Disney.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstaining on Geno, and quoting what I said in this thread the week before Geno's reveal:

MY BOY

Chance: 50%

Sora’s stuck in the Realm Between in terms of chances. On one hand, he is owned by Disney, a company very protective of their IP’s. On the other hand, that doesn’t 100% stop him from getting in. Here’s some proof:

He might not be FP5, per se, but I’m confident he’ll at least be future DLC.



Want: 100%

YES. YES. YES. Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite franchises EVER. I’ve been wanting Sora in Smash ever since early 2017, when I was well a fan of the series. The KH YouTuber HMK has organized everything I could ever want if Sora ever got in Smash:

Plus, Sora's on my FP Vol. 2 wishlist.

Heihachi: 20%

Noms: Ring Fit Adventurer

 

[DanganZilla5]

Ok. To the people who think that Sora is not likely because "Disney", I will provide some counterpoints. First, Nintendo and Disney have a good relationship. There is the Aladdin/Lion King game bundle on Switch which is somewhat reasonably priced and they have been putting games on Nintendo systems for a while now. Not just the DS Kingdom hearts games, but also a bunch of wreck-it-ralph games, Jedi Knight, Ducktales on Wii U, etc. Second, the vice president of Disney of Japan said that they would be open to having Sora in Smash and it's stated they would not be very picky (https://www.khinsider.com/forums/in...nd-his-chances-at-being-in-smash-bros.216412/). Third, Disney is not always picky and doesn't always charge a fortune. Sega even managed to get not one, but two Mickey Mouse games on the Sega Genesis Mini for example.

Yes Disney is an ever-consuming conglomerate, but that doesn't mean they don't negotiate when another party approaches them. Nintendo is a big company, and Sakurai is a very respected and reputable person in the industry. I'm confident that Disney would listen to them. I think people are overreacting way too much when it comes to Disney. I don't like how big they are, but that does not mean that they are evil and will take over Smash if they lay a finger on the game.

 

[MisterMike]

Source?

This is the Mii Costume List. It was first posted on Discord to a few people on July 19th 2019. It's existence was only made public on October 18th 2019 when Papa Genos made a video mentioning it. So far, it has correctly listed 4 of it's 7 costumes. For clarification, Mallow/Smithy is supposed to be two separate costumes.

This is the video Papa Genos made wherein he made this Mii Fighter list public. (Relevant time code is 5:43)

This is the second list. It was provided by the same guy about a week or so before Terry's presentation, and everything it listed was correct. Initially it was assumed that these items were for Mii Fighter costumes, but it was later shown to have been for Terry's Spirit Board this whole time.

 

[Flyboy]

We really out here pretending Cacomallow is real in 2020 huh