Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[CapitaineCrash]

Geno
Chance: 25%
Sakurai loves him and he's very requested and Sakurai probably knows it. That's pretty much the only thing Geno have for him honestly, but it might be enough if Sakurai really want to please the fan. I think that we might see spirit as a fighter post pass.

Want: 5%
I loves Super Mario rpg, but I don't really care about Geno. I don't think his moveset would bring a lot in comparaison to the dlc we just got. There's also so many Square enix characters that I would prefer over him, and also so many Mario characters. The only reason I gave him 5% instead of 0% is that I guess that considering how popular he is, he would make a lot of people happy and I would be happy for them.

Kracko as a boss
Chance: 0%
Let's be honest, we probably won't even get new bosses at this point. Even if we do, and even if we get one more from Kirby, I don't think Kracko would be choose (Dynablae? Hyness? Maybe Whispy woods?).

Want: 0%
There's realy no reason to add another Kirby boss while some other big franchise don't even have one (Mario, Pokémon, Splatoon, Fire emblem etc.) And even if for some reason there's another Kirby boss, The other that I named would be better I think.

 

[3DSNinja]

Yes.
Chance:100%: Honestly, I think Geno is inevitable. The Mij costume was cut, 2 SMRPG songs were taken down with Megalovania... Sakurai likes the character. Ph, and apparently leaked think he is highly likely....
Want: OVER 9000!: I want this character so much. I love the Mario RPG's, I love his character, I love his desifn, I love everything about him. I really want him in.
Not Zero
Chance:0%: Probably not getting DLC bosses. And why would we get one for Kirby?
Want:0%: Nah. Zero and Dark Matter would be better. Or hell, Magolor or Star Dream.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Kracker's our word but you can say Kracko
Chance: 0%
I remember this being nominated before the release of the game. Boy, has this nomination not aged well. Judging by the DLC as of right now, it's safe to say we aren't getting anymore bosses added in the game. If that were to change, it still wouldn't help Kracko because they very likely wouldn't add in another boss from a series that already has one. The jester is enough. Kracko's also a spirit and while I do advocate for spirits upgrading into playable characters post Fighters pass, I'm not holding the same hope for bosses.

Want: 5%
I'm a Kirby fan but I have no real major feelings towards the cloud. If he somehow got to be a boss I'd be kinda confused at this point. They also don't really fix the problem with Kirby representation in Smash so I'd rather want them to spend their time and resources elsewhere.

You know for the longest time I thought his red ribbon was supposed to be a nose and his actual nose his lips
Chance: 25%
Being wanted by Sakurai himself and being regarded as ''the last never ever not yet in'' is nice and all but at the end of the day Square still has a say in this, so does Nintendo. Since he was removed from the Super Star Saga remake I don't think they really care for him. I see Geno's support as a bubble. Big corporations aren't gonna target us forum dwellers, they will go for the less vocal majority. If they can think of a character more recognizable and more profitable than him, chances are they would pick that character instead.

Want: 0%
Still no attachment to him. Still don't see the hype. Still prefer many other characters.

Hollow Knight costume x5
9volt: 1.19%
Rundas: 0.96%

 

[SKX31]

And now, ladies and gentlemen, starting at Point Guard for the Mario RPG Companions team, he's one of the stars (literally)...

#[Heart][MusicNote]!?, also known as, ehm, GEEEEEENNOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Chance: 10 % (Ultimate, primary rating) 50 % (Smash 6)

While he's a major league fan favorite within the community and a character Sakurai himself have outright considered, I'm giving him this pessimistic rating due to two unanswered questions:

What does S-E think of him compared to their other prospects? I'd be more confident in his chances had he appeared more often in other Nintendo-SE collaborations, but it's really difficult to tell. I'm gonna echo waddledeeonredyoshi 's sentiments here - a character's that niche by unfortunate circumstances is very easily overshadowed by other options. And S-E has still one of the deepest benches left.

What does Furukawa consider him? As Nintendo's President and Ultimate's Executive Producer, Furukawa's probably the main guy giving Sakurai the list of characters. I'm pretty sure Geno's on that list, but is he at the top even? Difficult to say there too for similar reasons.

It's also difficult to really predict his chances from this point. How many Post-Pass slots are left for example? How many such slots will Nintendo reserve for themselves? Are they going for fan favorites, or more third parties? Do the removed tracks mean stuff for Smash, or something else like a possible port, appearance elsewhere, or even a S-E led remake?

He's not impossible, but really, there are a lot of unanswered questions. His chances do increase tremendously with Smash 6 - probably not the outcome his fans would want, but Smash 6 will very likely (by neccessity, and I'm assuming Nintendo continues making Smash games because why would they let one of their biggest earners drop?) be the "clean slate" game, and that's the prime time to add first parties. I consider Geno partly first party due to his Mario connections, although S-E owns him.

Want: 45 %

More or less neutral on him, really. Don't have a huge impression on him, although he could certainly be a fun character mechanically.

Boss: Kracked.com (Kracko)

Chance: Tossed off stage (0 %)

He would have had some chance had there

* Been an inkling of DLC bosses
* Not been another Kirby boss already. You know, the one who thinks shooting you with a giant laser is a capital (getdahint? ) idea.

So, nope. Not this time.

Want: 10 %

Not my favorite out of the potential Kirby bosses, but could be interesting in a theoretical sense.

Noms: Thrall x 5

Predictions: 9Volts 0,80 % / Rundas 1,2 %

 

[Jomosensual]

Boss Kracko
Chance 0 - If theres a boss rush mode added then maybe, but there's not much of a sign that happening. Even then we already have a boss from Kirby so new bosses from Kirby probably wouldnt be a priority

Want 0 - Doubt Kracko even makes my top 5 most wanted new bosses in Smash list if I put one together


Geno
Chance 40 - Oh boy. The more I think about it the more I'm not sure what to do with this one. I think there's a good chance he makes it but SE has a lot of other good picks that would make them more money like Lara Croft or Sora. And while yes, Sakurai did say that you don't have to be super well known to get into Smash, SE might not think that way given they have Cloud and Dragon Quest in the game right now instead of someone like Crono. So while Sakurai might say Geno it's very likely SE would say "No, we want someone more well known if we're getting 1 more character." I think Sakurai will try to make this happen based on how many different new comers have been added to the game that have been long requested, but I don't think SE will care.

Want 70 - I'd like to see him get in just for the fan base. Also, it would be nice to finally put to rest the last major character from Smash speculation and start talking about different characters. It's been nice that weve been able to cycle so many in lately since most of the regulars are either in or are hard deconfirms.

Predict
Rundas - 1.50
9 Volt - .75

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[Deleted member]

The Star-Warrior himself, Geno

Chance: 45%
He has some stuff going for him currently like Sakurai wanting him from Brawl all the way to current day as I doubt we'd have gotten the Mii Costume otherwise with just how obscure he admittedly is so Sakurai wants him, He has massive fan appeal dating back to Melee at the earliest like Banjo, With Square's biggest franchises in Smash they may be more receptive to him getting in and his Mii Costume didn't come with Hero which may or may not be Suspicious.

That said I still don't think his chances go above the 50% mark as there's more relevant Square characters out there that makes a lot more sense as DLC like Sora which is both relevant and has fan appeal or even 2B and Lara Croft which are both relevant and Lara has certainly made herself known across the entire gaming industry as well as leaving a large legacy behind her and her franchise.

Plus would Square want to use Geno over double dipping on FF, Sora, 2B, Lara Croft or others? I don't really think so to be honest they've likely shot down the idea of Geno a couple of times already so whats to say they simply don't want him in over their other characters? I don't think it's that big of a stretch to suggest so but what do I know they may be more receptive to him like I said previously.

Overall there's some stuff going for him admittedly but there's equal or more stuff going against him and there's even other square characters that make more sense for DLC like Sora or 2B. I love Geno but unless Sakurai really wants Geno and pushes him to be another fan request character like Banjo was in Fighters Pass 1 I don't really see him as all too likely not to mention we don't know the state of spirits post-fighters pass.

Want: 100%
He's easily my most wanted character and has been for quite some time he's admittedly irrelevant and obscure but I love his design and the potential he has for Smash. He's also the way I would go for representing the Mario RPGs since he's from the game that started it all while Paper Mario and M&L are good I'd personally prefer to represent the beginnings of it all plus Paper Mario kinda moved away from being an RPG. I just love the dude and I love Super Mario RPG as a game it's easily in my top 5 favorite video games.

I'd pop-off for him so hard if he got in and I would love to see him in as he is my most wanted character with Reimu following shortly behind him.

Boss: Kracko
Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

Nominations: Reimu Hakurei x10

 

[TheCJBrine]

Pinocchio:

Chance: 50% - Based on things that have supposedly been heard, Sakurai’s view on him, and the Mii costume still missing, I think he has a pretty good shot. However, I don’t expect him to come until after the Fighters Pass, plus to be honest there are other characters from Square Sakurai could decide to prioritize still (if he doesn’t just get both him and another SE character) since they are all bigger names; but, yeah, I think he has a good shot.

Want: 100% - I really like Geno’s design and his personality in the game; he’s frickin’ cool, kind, and kinda silly. I may have only learned of him and SMRPG last year, but his design alone was enough to get me interested and start thinking he’s frickin’ cool, liking him even more when I learned about his character and played the game (which I found very enjoyable). He’s now my #2 most-wanted, just below Steve, and I definitely want to see him return in Smash; not just because he’s cool, but also for all of the people he’d please, including all of the fans who have known him for much longer than I have.

Kracko is coming backo:

Chance: 1% - Was gonna give this a flat out zero, but let’s face it, anything could happen. We haven’t gotten any new bosses so far, though, so I see no reason to expect anymore of them in the future.

Want: Abstain - I don’t really care either way; however, I love the Kirby series and wouldn’t mind another boss from it. I’m sure Kracko would be enjoyable, even if I like Marx a lot more (though yeah I also like Kracko, but I still don’t really care much).

Nominations:

Waluigi x3
Steve x2

 

[Sari]

Geno

Chance: 35%
Geno has been one of the biggest Smash requests over the years and Sakurai is definitely aware of his popularity with him mentioning Geno back in Brawl and adding the Geno mii costume in SSB4. With Ridley, K. Rool, and now Banjo being added it's clear that Sakurai has been going after fan favorites throughout Ultimate's lifespan and Geno may be one of the next in line. The main thing holding Geno back is his obscurity outside of the Smash community, especially when he may have to compete with bigger Square Enix characters out there like Lara Croft, 2B, and Sora. And that's to say if we'd be getting another SE character at all since they could be focusing on other companies.

Want: 5%
I beat Super Mario RPG many years back. It’s an amazing game and a must play for 16-bit era RPG fans. That said though I never got the hype behind Geno. In a game with colorful and memorable characters like Booster and the Axem Rangers, Geno was without a doubt the most uninteresting main character in the game. Had it not been for the Smash community I probably would’ve completely forgotten that he existed. As far as both Mario and Square Enix characters go he’s at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to my most wanted. Literally the only reason this is not a 0% is because I've seen some passionate Geno fans out there and a part of me sort of hopes they get their wish considering how demanded he is.

----------

Kracko as a boss

Chance: 0%
Sakurai flat out said during the Banjo showcase that homerun contest would be the last new singleplayer mode. That pretty much kills any chance of something like boss rush from happening as well as any new bosses being added. Even if they were to add new bosses, I don't see them adding a new Kirby boss with Marx being a thing. As far as new Kirby bosses go, Kracko would also have to compete with other big names like O² and Dyna Blade.

Want: 0%
There are a ton of new bosses I'd like to see get added but another Kirby boss isn't one of them. Bring in some bosses from unrepped series like Kid Icarus, Pikmin, and Xenoblade. Also I think Dyna Blade would be a much cooler Kirby boss anyway.

----------

9-Volt chance prediction: 2.02%
Rundas chance prediction: 5.61%

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Geno

Ok. Here is my chance to explain myself since I almost single-handedly nominated him up to the top.

Chance: 50%

Back in the last Geno rating, I gave him a 1% chance score. What changed? The fact that Geno's Mii costume did not come with Hero and the announcement of more DLC characters.

Here are my points toward his inclusion:

• Sakurai has wanted Geno for past titles.
• Geno is highly requested and one of the few longest requested characters after K Rool, Ridley, and Banjo. He does consistently well on fan polls.
• His Mii Costume did not return with Hero which is suspicious.
• Two songs (and those songs ony) associated with Geno were struck down by Nintendo. The same thing happened with Sans.
• Geno was requested enough to get a Mii Costume in Smash 4.
• There is nothing that directly says that spirits deconfirm characters.
• It would line up with the Mii costume leak that has mallow/smithy on it and has correctly predicted other Mii costumes like Rocket Grunt and Goemon and the Cacomallow leak which has not yet been disproven.
• Geno is in a similar situation that Banjo was in. "He's irrelevant." "No one knows who he is!" "He's owned by an uncooperative 3rd party company who will not give him up!" None of this stopped Banjo.
• Sakurai straight up said that it matters how fun the character is, not just how relevant they are. And Geno would certainly be a fun and unique character with his timed attacks.

With Sakurai wanting to please the fans, this is Geno's chance. Probably the best chance he's ever had. However, it is possible that his Mii Costume will return. I strongly believe that Geno will make an appearance in this game outside of a spirit. Whether it be playable or as a costume. Thus, I give him a 50% chance score.

The only thing really holding him back is competition from Sora and Lara Croft, who are more popular and requested. I would argue that Sora is one of the top contenders of DLC right now. However, he doesn't necessarily destroy Geno's chance as long as we get more than 5 DLC characters. Which is honestly a bit of a stretch considering we don't know anything about the post-pass characters, but considering everything I've stated, he has a very good shot.

Want: 80%

Not a 100? Indeed. I honestly just wanted to rate Geno again since so much has come out in support of him. I honestly don't have a lot of personal connection with him, but at the same time I really want him because he has been requested for so long and I think his fans deserve it. idk I guess I like to support some of the underdogs. Plus he could bring a cool moveset with him, as well as a neat stage and some jammin music.


Kracko as a boss

Chance: 1%

He is a recurring boss from the Kirby series. If Sakurai really wanted another boss from Kirby, there is a good chance it will be him. The problem is that we haven't gotten any DLC bosses, neither is there any indication that Sakurai is interested in adding more bosses. Plus, Kirby already has a boss and Sakurai would probably want to branch out to other franchises for a boss. Not to mention, I believe there isn't more than 1 boss per franchise. And I have to ask: Is there any significant demand for more bosses? I heard people wanted Gruntilda and a boss rush mode, but other than that I've heard no demand for anything boss-related. It just doesn't seem like a priority when everyone is talking about characters, stages, and Mii costumes.

Want: 5%

I could care less for any boss-related content. I'm just not interested. And if I had to choose a couple bosses to be added in a patch, I would prefer it to be someone like Gruntilda or another monster from Monster Hunter.

Predictions:
9-Volt - 5%
Rundas - 9%

Noms: Monokuma x5

 

[EarlTamm]

Geno:
Chance: 50%
I don't see him being fighter 5, that's for sure. I think he is more of a post pass addition, but we don't exactly know the nature of that, so how many characters that covers is up in the air. I think he has a lot going for him, from Sakurai wanting him to the whole costume thing, and I think that will only be enhanced with time.

Want: 100%
Definitely my most wanted character. I just think he's very cool, has great moveset potential, and is a character with great potential in general.

Krako Boss:
Chance: 0%
I don't see then putting in more bosses, especially another Kirby boss.

Want: 10%
I would love to see more bosses someday, but Kraco isn't high on that list.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Cloud as boss fight

Chance: 0%
I don't see them dropping a random boss out of nowhere. I guess if a Boss Rush mode got added, we could get additional bosses, though that's very unlikely. Plus we probably wouldn't get another Kirby boss anyway, we already have Marx.

Want: 100%
I love the bosses in Ultimate, and there's way too few. I'll take any I can get. And Kracko would be a great one.

Is that the country from Princess Diaries or Magneto's island?

Chance: 49%
It's a testament to Geno's massive fanbase that I can't think of any reason against his inclusion, even though by all means he should be the longest of shots. Like, even if we presume that the next season of DLC will follow the same exact guidelines as this one, we would get all third-party characters (which Geno is), and we would probably get at least one huge fan demand a la Banjo (which Geno is). Base game Spirits don't matter from then on, his Costume is MIA, he has a stage and music he could bring, and even if DLC is sold individually, or without stages, he's also the kind of character that could come without.

Conversely, even if we get a focus on Nintendo stuff, or solely fanservice, or promoting characters in non-playable roles, Geno fits in.

We also know Sakurai wants him in, and Dragon Quest is out of the way. There's still solid Square Enix competition, but they all also have cons (Western, too new, owned by Disney, not as big, irrelevant). Geno could end up victorious.

Want: 100%
I'm a Geno supporter. I have been for over ten years now. And I will continue to be for another decade if need be. Geno, at this point, is already a Smash legend, without even being in. The most mainstream of gaming news sites, when reporting on fan-demanded characters, mention Geno. It's that bad.

SMRPG is a masterpiece and a classic. People will try to pretend like it isn't, like they now pretend that Banjo-Kazooie aren't icons and that their duology is some obscure unknown unimportant platformer, but I see the nuance where it is.

Let's just get Geno, alright?

Predictions:
9-Volt: 1.09%
Rundas: 2.37%

Nominations: Atari rep x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Geno:

Chance: 50% - Absolutely one of the most likely characters for post-Pass. The missing Mii Costume, Sakurai's own desire to get him in, Square maybe being more lenient after already having their two flagship franchises represented (if that was even ever an issue), and him being easily the most requested character for over a year now, he's got a lot going for him. The one thing that still stands in his way is his relative obscurity, Nintendo or even Square might fancy characters with a wider reach, or at least one that appeals to a different demographic than the one that already owns the game, but we literally know nothing about the post-Pass content, we can only make assumptions about how they might be picking characters going forward, so I'm not going to hold that as a strong point against him. Besides, when the core Smash fanbase gets hyped it tends to spread to the wider gaming community too, if Nintendo has observed this then that point won't matter anyways.

Want: 70% - Giving Geno a want rating gets more and more difficult over time for me. I'd really love to see him just for his fanbase's sake, it'd practically complete speculation, and the longer we go without him the more urgent his inclusion begins to feel, because it really would be a shame if he were to miss out on Ultimate. However, I don't have a huge personal desire to really play as him, I like him just fine, and he could potentially be a fun character to mess around with in casual matches and such, plus getting some SMRPG content would in general be neat as it's such a charming game, but I still don't really see him being someone that I'd end up playing regularly. I probably consider him the character we need the most at this point, but not one that I have any personal investment in, if that makes any sense. I'll still give him a positive rating though, because I would be legitimately bummed out if he doesn't make it, just more so on others' behalf than my own.

Kracko (Boss):

Chance: 0% - New bosses aren't happening.

Want: 60% - But if they did, Kracko would be pretty cool. Although even if I love Kirby, it would maybe be best to let other franchises get something first before Kirby gets two bosses.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-The Horrible Goose pre-Geno/Boss: Kracko

[Rerate] Quote x130
Thrall (Warcraft) x120
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x120
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x120
Concept: Any grass-type starter x120
[Rerate] Steve x115
Sol Badguy x110

150 - 101

Francis York Morgan x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x100
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x90
[Rerate] Sora x86
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x85
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x85
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
[Rerate] Heihachi x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x70
Sackboy x68
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x65
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Kunio (River City) x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x45
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x40
[Rerate] Dante x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Monokuma x34
Akira Howard x30
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x30
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x30
Earthworm Jim x30
Meowth x30

Under 25

Chun-Li x23
Urbosa x21
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
King Boo x19
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Kazuma Kiryu x15
Giygas x14
Boss: Ender Dragon x12
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
Concept: Atari rep x10
Rival Pokémon Trainer x8
Freddy Fazbear x7
Toxtricity x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Terra Branford x5
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x5
[Rerate] Waluigi x5

Protector, No more stages beyond the Pass, and Any grass-type starter pass Steve and tie with Thrall for second place.

Francis York Morgan crosses the 100 nom threshold.

Prince of All Cosmos rolls over 50 noms.

Meowth cashes in over 25 noms.

 

[RouffWestie]

Geno
Chance: 55%
If there is any spirits-to-fighter DLC happening he’s likely to be the prime candidate on account of how highly requested he is. There has yet to be any sign of what kind of characters are going to be the additional DLC, so it’s 50/50. Though I will lean more on the “it’s happening” side just because of how majority of Ultimate seems to be dream newcomers of the fanbase.
Want: 100%
Just because I want the long-time highly requested to all get in this time. I don’t have much history with SMRPG, but I know it was absolutely important in establishing a relationship between Nintendo & Square. And without it, my favorite franchise that’s no a shell of it’s former self wouldn’t exist, so I’d have no argument against it.

Kracko Boss
Chance: 0%
I doubt they’re going to add bosses at this point. Kracko also wouldn’t be the first in line imo. They just added Marx. though there’s no rule against it, adding 2 bosses from 1 franchise within the same game doesn’t seem fair.
Want: 100%
Kirby bosses translate perfectly into Smash, for obvious reasons. Even the Halberd stage manages to be an insanely faithful interpretation of its boss fight in RoMK. I could see Kracko being a fun new addition to go up against.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

The Star of the Show

Chance: 95%
Geno is going to be playable in Super Smash Brother Ultimate for the Nintendo Switch at some point in the future. There is truly no character that has ever existed with as much outcry to be in Smash as Geno. Sakurai wanted him in Brawl. Sakurai wanted him in Smash 4, but settled for a mii costume. Smash Ultimate would not be Ultimate without the most historically requested character for Smash of all time. Not even Ridley has been as big of a name in the Smash requests pantheon. We got Ridley, King K. Rool, Banjo Kazooie, Cloud, every returning Veteran, and even playable Master Hand in the story mode. Geno is next. He may not be the 5th fighter pass, and he may not even show up until the very end of DLC, but he's coming. Dread it, run from it... Geno still arrives.

The 5% chance keeping me from 100% is the possibility of his mii costume returning (hopefully upgraded) and coming with a song or two. I'd be okay with that, though.

Want: 100%
There are three characters I want more than anyone else. This is one of them. Other than characters I want that have zero chance of making it in (like PMD Grovyle or Vivian from TTYD) Geno is my number 3 pick for a character to be put in Smash.

Super Mario RPG is not the greatest RPG of all time, but it is the foundation for the series that created the greatest RPGs of all time. Paper Mario and Mario & Luigi would not exist without SMRPG coming first. Geno IS Super Mario RPG. He's not a side character, he is the embodiment of everything the game stands for, and if you ask me, him and Mallow are the reason so many fantastic characters in Paper Mario exist.

Every time I post here and rate a character on how much I want them, I talk about how interesting their moveset would be. I love coming up with movesets for characters, and even re-vamping old movesets for Veterans who aren't very well-represented. Geno is the only character I've made a moveset for multiple times. He's just way too cool and interesting to not have in Smash based on his potential moveset alone. Rocket punches?? Laser beams?? Gun hands??? Shooting a fist off his arm and then firing star-bullets out of the arm hole revealed by shooting said fist off???? If you think that isn't some badass **** you're just wrong.

For reference, here's the latest Geno moveset I've made.

Spoiler: Geno Moveset

Concept:
Geno in SMRPG is a glass cannon. He's fast, hits hard, and has insanely strong special moves. Geno in Smash will be much the same- very fast, has overwhelming stage control with various moves that cover a lot of space, and special moves that are very strong, but with a terrible disadvantage state that's hard to get out of, and a light weight that makes him easy to KO.

Stats:
Lightweight, a bit heavier than Mewtwo. Above average run speed, quick initial dash with a good foxtrot. One double jump, above average air acceleration and max speed, low-ish fall speed. Overall, above-average horizontal movement, but a bit floaty. Great in advantage, bad in disadvantage.

Timed Hits:
Certain moves will deal double damage if they're executed properly. If timing is slightly off, the move will still deal extra damage, but not the full amount. If timed perfectly, a special sound effect will play, as well as making Geno's eyes sparkle in his portrait. Exactly how timing works is different per-move this gimmick affects. (See Smash Attacks, Grab, and Specials)

Rocket Punches:
For some moves, Geno will attack by firing his hand off his body to punch far-away enemies. In SMRPG, because it was turn-based, the return trip wasn't a factor, but losing an hand temporarily will matter a lot in a real-time fighting game like Smash. For moves where Geno uses a rocket punch, he will actually lose hands, making it impossible to use certain moves until the hand returns.

Moves which only fire 1 rocket punch can be used even if one hand is gone, but using the "wrong" hand will slightly increase the move's start-up time. The default hand for one-handed rocket punches will be noted with each move. Moves that fire 2 rocket punches can still be used with one hand missing, but will obviously have no projectile on one side. The start-up time is unchanged. If no hand can be fired as a projectile, and Geno will make a disappointed facial expression. All the moves have (weak) hitboxes on his arm, regardless of whether a projectile is fired or not.

Rocket Punches act as projectiles. They travel from Geno's body straight forward until reaching a certain distance, before heading back to him with a strong homing. Geno moving won't affect the punches' trajectory. They have no hitbox on the way back. If reflected (only reflectable on the way out) they will immediately travel back to Geno, faster than usual, and hurt him before re-attaching. Unlike most reflected projectiles, his hands deal set damage and knockback to Geno no matter how they were reflected. (Mostly because of how many projectiles he has, reflectors would otherwise be broken against him.)

Normals:

Jab- A quick punch, followed by an arm flex to reveal his Hand Cannon, and a rapid jab bullet barrage similar to Inkling's multijab. Fires a large star from his arm as the finisher. If he doesn't have his left hand, he can only do the first hit with less range, but unchanged damage.
F-Tilt- A slightly slower punch based on his unarmed attack. Pressing A again fires his hand out as a Rocket Punch. Only can use his right hand. Both hits of this attack are useful, unlike similar f-tilts.
D-Tilt- Geno fires a single star at the ground in front of him, with a long-lasting hitbox. Good combo starter, good for 2-framing. Unnaffected by lack of hands.
U-Tilt- Geno raises his hands up in a "praise the sun"-esque pose, a star appearing above his head that hits multiple times. Mostly an anti-air, but can hit very close-by grounded opponents.

N-Air- Geno faces the camera and fires a rocket punch to each side of him, using both hands.
F-Air- A rocket punch directly forward, with a very strong hitbox right as the fist fires that gets weaker when the fist starts travelling. Defaults to right hand.
B-Air- Geno fires three star bullets behind him. They don't travel very far, but are very powerful. Gives him a bit of momentum when used. Similar to Gunner F-Air, in the opposite direction. Unnaffected by lack of hands.
U-Air- A rocket punch sent directly upward, defaulting to his right hand.
D-Air- A rocket punch directly downward, functioning very similar to Megaman's Dair, just with Geno's gimmick.

Dash Attack- An quick elbow forward, removing all momentum if it hits an opponent. Similar to the toy Geno's "attack" on toy Bowser, but with a bit of an animation to be less stiff.

Smash Attacks:
Up Smash and Forward Smash have a Timed Hit mechanic. Release the button right when it finishes charging (before the shaking animation stops) to deal much more damage than usual. Stars will appear above Geno's head to indicate the timing of the charge, and the stars will disappear once fully charged. A sound effect will play if perfectly timed.

U-Smash- Geno lifts his hands up to charge, before bowing to the ground and summoning a Geno Blast pillar of light. Slower but stronger version of Palutena's Up-Smash.
F-Smash- Geno uses his signature move, Geno Beam. The beam is a multihit attack with long range, about half the length of FD, but with a long start-up time even if not charged up. Functionally similar to Mii Gunner's F-Smash, but with more range and longer start-up.
D-Smash- Geno fires a rocket punch low to the ground in both directions. His fastest Smash attack, but still relatively slow, and easy to avoid by jumping over.

Grab and throws:
When Geno has no hands, he can't grab, doing a 'whiff' animation where he looks confused. Pummelling has him fire stars point-blank from one arm. Up/Forward/Back throw all have Geno transform into a cannon a la Geno Flash and fire the opponent out of himself. Down throw is similar to Falco's down throw but with a star shot instead of a laser, obviously.

Specials:
Neutral B- Geno Whirl
Geno fires a projectile that travels quickly in a straight line. It pierces through players, high damage but low knockback, very slow attack. Timing a B press when it touches the opponent deals double damage. If items are turned on, then timing a B press for when the 'whirl' despawns (goes off-screen or touches a wall) will make it do 99.9% damage, but much less knockback to compensate.

Not very good for zoning due to its slowness and punishability on whiff. Great at long range for anti-zoning, or against slow opponents.

Side B- Star Gun
Geno fires his most powerful weapon, the Star Gun. This shoots a barrage of 4 stars that travel in a straight line with some variance in angle. Similar in frame data and damage/knockback to Falco's lasers if all four hit, but the stars move slower, allowing Geno to potentially chase after them and get a follow-up at certain ranges.

Up B- Geno Boost
Geno raises his hands to the sky for a moment (stalling mid-air) before given a "boost" upwards. While under the effect, Geno has stars below his feet, and he slowly rises, but he has complete control over his aerial moveset and left/right movement while rising. Not very good for vertical recovery, but GREAT for horizontal movement. The upwards momentum is cancelled upon jumping or airdodging, and ends after a few seconds. Geno must land on the ground to regain "fuel" for this move, similar to R.O.B. and Villager/Isabelle.

Down B- Geno Flash
Geno turns into a cannon and launches a star up and forward, which creates a multihit explosion as it expands. The explosion is similar to Hero's magic burst, but half the size. After the explosion, Geno appears in the center of it and then drops like a rock. If he's not above a platform after using this he's KO'd. Geno takes damage for using this move, too. (He literally blows himself up, after all.) Can be used as a recovery, but the cannon falls while it's firing, making its vertical distance pretty bad. Very high-risk high-reward move.

Final Smash- Star Road Beam
The camera zooms in to Geno's face as he prays, before the 7 pieces of the Star Road start to circle behind him... and then the 7 Star Spirits start to circle behind those (with Twink!), and then the 7 Crystal stars circle behind that. (Optional: The Pure Hearts also show up? Maybe the Bean Star? Something from other M&L games?) With the power of all the stars behind him, Geno flies up to the top of the screen and uses Geno Beam and Star Beam at the same time, creating a massive laser that destroys everything below him. He can be moved left/right slowly while firing. (Literally moves him, doesn't angle the laser like with Lucario.)

Taunts:
Up Taunt- The classic arms folded nod. Mallow also shows up to pose with him!
Side Taunt- Geno makes a pose similar to his 'guard' animation in-battle in SMRPG. "I serve... a higher authority."
Down Taunt- Geno trips and falls on his face, then stands back up and shakes his head quickly to shake it off. Coupled with the classic SMRPG sound effect.

I'd post movesets with my posts more often if there were characters I liked more often

Also, Geno represents my childhood. When I was a kid, I stumbled across a video on youtube, "Rawest Forest." I don't think I have to explain any further. I still cry of nostalgia every time I see that video, however silly it is. Geno represents not only Super Mario RPG for me, but the wonder and pure joy of my childhood, going to early youtube for YTPs and Newgrounds to play silly flash games.

Lastly, and arguably most importantly... Geno is the perfect choice for Smash Bros. Smash started out as a series based on a kid using his toys and having them fight each other. What if Mario fought Link??? Whoa... Geno is, quite literally, a kid's toy that was brought to life by the power of wishes. Having Geno be "brought to life" by being put in Smash, all through the power of "wishes" (read: fan requests) is about as meta and amazing as you could get. Put him in Sakurai.

Anyway uhhhhh Geno is cool and epic. Now for Kracko.

Chance: 0%
We're not getting any bosses as DLC, and if we did, Kracko is nowhere near the first one we'd get when we already have Marx. If we did get a Kirby boss... I guess Kracko would be next in line? We can't really have Whispy or MK/D3 for obvious reasons... But there's also plenty of other options, like Galacta Knight or Dark Matter?

Want: Abstain
I really just don't care enough about bosses to give a score, I don't wanna ruin Kracko's chance score with my indifference. I've fought him plenty of times in Kirby games anyway.


Predictions:
9-Volt: 1.21%
Rundas: 1.97%

Grass Starters x5 once again
(When are the top spots gonna be locked in? What happens with the tie? GoodGrief741 )

 

[GoodGrief741]

PokéfreakofBACON The top seven gets locked after tomorrow (9-Volt and Rundas' day). If the ties mean there's more than 7 characters in the top 7, then we'll get at least one double day, like what happened this week. If the ties remain but there's still only 7, then they'll be locked in the order they appear in the nominations list.

 

[SSGuy]

I don't know much about Kracko to put together an opinion on but I will comment on Geno for now.

Geno:

Chance: 20%
I still feel like a lot of Geno's is going to be based on who gets in and what happens with whatever Mii Costumes come with said character. With nothing in regards to Spirits deconfirming or not being a thing. I don't really have a say on whether he is going to break the mold or not. His following is big enough to where he has a better shot than most if not all the spirits currently in the game to be that one spirit to become a character.

Want: 100%
There is no doubt that I want Geno in this game. Hr has been my most wanted Smash Bros character since 2005. I have been waiting ever since and will probably continue to wait if still does not show up. I've invested too much of my time to walk away and just give up hoping that he could get in. A lot of that is thanks to such an incredible community that has always manage to stay extremely positive and has even helped me at times become a better person in the face of disappointment or hostility from Geno's rival communities/groups. I really hope Sakurai is still thinking about us after all these years.

Nominations:
Chell x3
Grass Starter (mainly Meganium) x2

 

[NintenRob]

Geno
Chance: 1% and that's being generous
How Geno got the cult following he has is beyond me. But it doesn't change the fact he's from one game in a franchise with way more notable characters from a company with way more notable characters.
Want: Hard 0%
The at this point I just want someone to come forward and say "Geno is never gonna be playable" so people would finally shut up about him.

Kracko
Chance 0.1%
We haven't had any dlc bosses, and Kirby already has a boss.
Want 70%
I like Kracko, I would've actually really liked to see him as a boss. It's a shame he's barely in the game. He's a very notable boss (and would make a better playable character than Geno)

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction 0.9% for both

 

[Dynamic Worlok]

Geno:

Chance: 80%
I feel like Geno's fan demand and the very conspicuous absence of his costume amongst those presented with hero portend extremely well for his Post-pass DLC chances. I am, however, aware that this is by no means a guarantee, But things are looking just a mite too suspicious to ignore entirely. The fact that he's already a spirit definitely hurts the possibility of his inclusion, but I'm confident that this will be a much lesser hurdle post-pass. Doubly so with Square's two biggest juggernaut franchises already in the game.

Want: 100%
I'll admit, I have a bias, and I'm far more likely to read the situation as a positive. I'd really like to see my blue boi come home, I feel like he got a raw deal when square and nintendo split, and I feel like he has so much potential (along with the rest of the SMRPG cast) for further characterization and utilization in other mario franchise games. I feel like Geno in particular has a moveset that fits perfectly into the smash mold, and the potential for a timed hit mechanic that would make him both fun and nuanced in his playstyle. Ever since I played SMRPG I've always been a fan of his design and aesthetic. Something about a weaponized puppet with star powers just butters my crumpet.

Here's hoping things come through.

Nominations:
(I don't know how the multipliers work on these things, so I'm not gonna include them)
Viewtiful Joe
Juno and Vela (jet force gemini)

 

[MasterOfKnees]

There is truly no character that has ever existed with as much outcry to be in Smash as Geno. Sakurai wanted him in Brawl. Sakurai wanted him in Smash 4, but settled for a mii costume. Smash Ultimate would not be Ultimate without the most historically requested character for Smash of all time. Not even Ridley has been as big of a name in the Smash requests pantheon.

Hopefully this won't derail the thread, but you might want to hold your horses on that one. Geno has a lot of history in Smash speculation, but let's not forget that his fanbase basically sat over Smash 4 speculation, and that for Ultimate he only became the most requested character after K. Rool's announcement. Geno was huge during mid-late Brawl speculation, and has had a revival in Ultimate speculation thanks to Sakurai's acknowledgement of him + the game's focus on including long time fan requests, but his popularity has not been consistent enough for him to be called the most requested character ever.

Like, if we charted Geno's popularity, his peaks have basically been from 2007-2008 and then 2018-2020 (at least), with everything in between ranging from low to middling popularity, where as Ridley was consistently at the top stretching all the way from 2001-2018. Of course Smash speculation wasn't as big in the Melee days, but even if we cut it to 2006-2018 that's still significantly longer than anyone else (except maybe K. Rool, but imo he only solidified his place as a top request from 2012 and on due to Diddy keeping him back during Brawl speculation). If we're talking peak popularity then Sonic easily takes it over everyone else, even during a time where Ridley and Geno were as popular as they've ever been (as well as Dedede and Diddy still not being in).

Geno's popularity is impressive enough as is, especially given the nature of the character, I really don't feel like we need to embellish it. He's not the most requested character ever, but next to Ridley and K. Rool he probably has the greatest history in Smash speculation out of anyone.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Hopefully this won't derail the thread, but you might want to hold your horses on that one. Geno has a lot of history in Smash speculation, but let's not forget that his fanbase basically sat over Smash 4 speculation, and that for Ultimate he only became the most requested character after K. Rool's announcement. Geno was huge during mid-late Brawl speculation, and has had a revival in Ultimate speculation thanks to Sakurai's acknowledgement of him + the game's focus on including long time fan requests, but his popularity has not been consistent enough for him to be called the most requested character ever.

Like, if we charted Geno's popularity, his peaks have basically been from 2007-2008 and then 2018-2020 (at least), with everything in between ranging from low to middling popularity, where as Ridley was consistently at the top stretching all the way from 2001-2018. Of course Smash speculation wasn't as big in the Melee days, but even if we cut it to 2006-2018 that's still significantly longer than anyone else (except maybe K. Rool, but imo he only solidified his place as a top request from 2012 and on due to Diddy keeping him back during Brawl speculation). If we're talking peak popularity then Sonic easily takes it over everyone else, even during a time where Ridley and Geno were as popular as they've ever been (as well as Dedede and Diddy still not being in).

Geno's popularity is impressive enough as is, especially given the nature of the character, I really don't feel like we need to embellish it. He's not the most requested character ever, but next to Ridley and K. Rool he probably has the greatest history in Smash speculation out of anyone.

I would say it's up to opinion on that. I didn't mean to downplay Ridley or K Rool at all. From my perspective, Geno fans still wanted him just as much during that time, but he wasn't as possible as Ridley/K Rool. It doesn't really matter though. Point is that he's popular and has been highly requested for like 20 years.

There's also a distinction between them I'd say, since Geno is almost exclusively known for being highly-requested in Smash, whereas Ridley is popular for more than just 1 game. Symbolism and whatnot.

let me embellish damn it

Nominations:
(I don't know how the multipliers work on these things, so I'm not gonna include them)
Viewtiful Joe
Juno and Vela (jet force gemini)

You get 5 nominations for every day, most people put all 5 towards one character. You could do 3 for viewtiful joe and 2 for juno/velo, for example.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Kracko:

Chance - 0%

We haven't seen any new additions for bosses so I don't see why he would be added all of a sudden. Also Marx is the Kirby boss here already I don't see why they would choose him.

Want - 0%

I REALLY want a boss rush mode! But I would much rather we get bosses from the franchises that don't already have bosses in the game. I really want something stupid like Shadow Lugia or Eggman.

Geno:

Chance - 60%

I do sort of think Geno is inevitible and I mostly agree with what @GoodGried741 said. Sakurai wants him, the fans want him..... Ultimate has given us many of the long time requested characters and Geno is one of the few remaining and is very deserving to get in and I think Sakurai will deliver.

Want - 75%

My history with Geno has ben a bit iffy, I have never played Super Mario RPG and I think as a Mario character Geno is a stupid idea since hes a side character from one game... BUT he is extremely populr and I'd be kidding myself if I said he wouldn't have a fun moveset since as a character he is such a unique concept. Also I'm an Isaac supporter, us and the Geno supporters are the two largest support groups on this site and those groups have been big and popular for a long time now and I think we should both work to push these final long time requests together. If Geno gets in I hope they help push Isaac because if Isaac gets in I will sure as hell push Geno.

Nominations: Isaac x5 (I have no idea if I can nominate assist trophies but who cares)

 

[owjies]

Geno
Chance: 60%
I agree that we don't know the nature of post-pass DLC enough yet to make accurate predictions. While my gut is saying 50/50, I'm leaning "Yes" for Geno. Without being a playable fighter or assist trophy, Geno has become an iconic member of the Smash Bros. universe almost purely through resilience. It's a testament to Super Mario RPG that one of its characters is still a frequent topic of conversation in Nintendo circles over twenty years later.

A lot of great points have been made already, so I'll just add that one thing. One of the most interesting aspects of Smash Ultimate's speculation cycle is that a lot of the perceived barriers that prevented characters in the past past have lifted:
Too hard to implement? || Too Old? || Legal Nightmare? || Console Competitor? || Supporting Character?

He's still far from a lock, but I believe Geno is one of the more likely candidates for post pass DLC, especially if there are spots open for characters similar to Ridley, K. Rool, and Banjo. Geno's missing costume is also suspicious and a point of interest as future character reveals occur.

Want: 100%
I've posted this story before in the Geno thread. I started a small, neighborhood car wash business when I was about 6-7 years old and put the money I made toward a Super Nintendo. Mario RPG was the first game that I purchased once I reached my goal, and it remains my all-time favorite game. I feel like Geno would be a blast to play and would hopefully bring elements of SMRPG's charm. Timed hit mechanics already exist in smash through . Finally, Geno would represent the Mario RPG series as a whole (Paper Mario / Mario & Luigi) and could double as a way to gauge interest in the series if Nintendo is considering a revival.


Kracko
Chance: 5%
As a longtime Geno supporter, I'm never one to dismiss a character's chances. You really never know and Smash Ultimate continues to surprise us. That said, to me, if there were ever plans to add DLC boss fights, I would've expected Grunty to be one of them. For that reason I feel Kracko's chances are quite low for now.

Want: 30%
While I haven't followed the Kirby series much beyond the SNES era, the more the merrier as far as I'm concerned.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I would say it's up to opinion on that. I didn't mean to downplay Ridley or K Rool at all. From my perspective, Geno fans still wanted him just as much during that time, but he wasn't as possible as Ridley/K Rool. It doesn't really matter though. Point is that he's popular and has been highly requested for like 20 years.

There's also a distinction between them I'd say, since Geno is almost exclusively known for being highly-requested in Smash, whereas Ridley is popular for more than just 1 game. Symbolism and whatnot.

let me embellish damn it

I'll definitely agree on the latter point, if Geno does get in, then he'll be the ultimate symbol of a character getting in solely due to fan demand. That's a big part of why I find the idea so charming, to have someone in that embodies that would be quite special.

 

[Jomosensual]

PokéfreakofBACON The top seven gets locked after tomorrow (9-Volt and Rundas' day). If the ties mean there's more than 7 characters in the top 7, then we'll get at least one double day, like what happened this week. If the ties remain but there's still only 7, then they'll be locked in the order they appear in the nominations list.

What's the plan if we get a reveal at the VGA? Will 9-Volt, Rundas, Frogger, and whoever is going with Frogger going back to the noms pool or are we going to get them done before we start doing rerates ?

 

[Deleted member]

Kracko boss battle

Chance: 0%

Boss battles are the lowest of priorities for Sakurai and his team to focus on with Ultimate currently. The lilelihood of this happening is incredibly low as is, but considering Kracko is a Kirby character, I just don't see it happening at all with Marx already being a boss from the Kirby series.

Want: 70%

I mean, it's more single player content to go through, so I'm obliged to say any boss battle will be cool for me. Even if I'm really indifferent to Kracko and want other characters as bosses, I'll still be up to fighting it as a boss with the entire Smash roster cause man Ultimate could still use some more singleplayer content if you ask me.
----------------
I had a picture for this day but I already used it on the Speculation thread and would be too soon to use again

Chance: 0.1%

I'm 1 of the people that think spirits are not eligible for DLC unless Sakurai makes a character who is 1, but because spirits =/= deconfirmed is a "see it to believe it" case, it makes it hard for me to believe a spirit will become playable in the future. Geno happens to be a spirit, so I can already rule him out on that basis despite the fan demand, the MIA mii costume, and that hat leak. The main question we should be asking for Geno is why did Sakurai settle for a spirit instead of a fully fledged fighter when he's said in the past that he wanted Geno in Smash and Squaresoft allowed Sakurai to make spirit battles out of him and Mallow? Ridley, K Rool, and Simon were all added to Ultimate because of the Ballot, which was a glorified popularity contest, and Banjo-Kazooie had no presence in Smash before his reveal. I don't believe for a moment that Square Enix would be the 1s that prevented Sakurai from adding him as a fighter because Geno wouldn't have been a spirit at all if that were the case.

Want: 10%

I'll keep it short. He just doesn't appeal to me, and fan demand isn't going to cut it for wanting a character because I'll be far more interested in seeing how people react to him being in it than wanting to actually see/play Geno in it.
----------------
Predictions:
9-volt: 1.22%
Rundas: 1.02%
----------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[Ridrool64]

First, here's the no hoper: Kracko

I will give him double zeroes. For chance, this is because of the one-two punch many other people have brought up. Assuming we can take Home Run Contest as the definitive final full-on selectable mode, then there's nowhere for any extra boss battles to fit. Next, even if we DO somehow get something for more boss battles, then why Kracko? Why not Eggman? Why not Necrozma? Why not the Titan Dweevil? Marx fulfills the role of Kirby's boss quite well. That's also the same reason I really wouldn't care about him for Want. Kracko would just be a drain of resources that could be put elsewhere.

So, how about Mr. Smashboards thread king here?

Chance: 35%. This guy really seems like he's counting on a bunch of unknowns right now. Will post-pass have third party characters? How long is it gonna be, really long or really short? Does Banjo overlap with his fanbase too much for him to be commercially viable? And that's without getting into stuff like, since Geno appears in both Smash 4 and Ultimate, did he just end up not getting picked for playability or is Square-Enix mandating that Geno can be in the game, but not directly playable? Then there's Lara Croft, who perhaps stands the best chance of getting in his way.

Want: 60%. Geno's been slipping on my want tier list. Super Mario RPG is great, but a coveted position of playability just feels... weirder and weirder the more I think about it. If Legacy XP is anything to go by, he'd have an awesome moveset, so that carries him a lot, but when entire franchises like Tomb Raider, Kingdom Hearts, and Bubble Bobble are missing (among other ones), I'm not quite sure about him like I was a year or so ago... Oh well. Though, I don't have nostalgic experiences with those.

Sunflower x 5. No predictions.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nominations:
(I don't know how the multipliers work on these things, so I'm not gonna include them)
Viewtiful Joe
Juno and Vela (jet force gemini)

They're not multipliers, they're the number of nominations. You have 5 nominations per day, and you can allocate them between any characters or concepts you want.

However, I'm gonna need to you to specify the number of nominations you're giving each, otherwise I won't be able to count them.

What's the plan if we get a reveal at the VGA? Will 9-Volt, Rundas, Frogger, and whoever is going with Frogger going back to the noms pool or are we going to get them done before we start doing rerates ?

We have no definitive plans to do a fixed schedule (though it's been discussed). However, if we end up doing one, I'd assume it would start after this week is done (well, technically the next one, as the top seven will be locked down before TGA); that way we could make the schedule, listen to feedback, maybe have polls, that kind of thing.

 

[P47]

The Bubbliest Cloud (as a boss)

Chance: 0%

I really doubt they'll add more bosses to the game and even if they do I really doubt Kracko will be one of them rather than a boss from a series that doesn't already have one in the game rn.

Want: 2%

If you put a gun to my head and asked me to pick a boss from a Sakurai-Kirby game (besides Marx) to be in Smash I'd choose Kracko. He's a series mainstay and I've always liked his fights (moreso than Whispy tbh) but I just don't think now is the time.

Doll from the Super Mario Role Playing Game

Chance: 10% as Fighter #5, 55% overall

Not only has he been a popular pick among Smash fans for a long time, Sakurai himself has acknowledged him and flat-out said he wanted to to make him playable. With more fighters being in development after the FP and less obstacles being in the way than ever, it really feels like he's coming (eventually).

Want: 100%

One of my most absolute most-wanteds alongside the other 3 in my sig (or 4 if you count Red lol). Out of all of them I probably have the most emotional attachment to him since I've wanted him and Ridley since the Brawl days (even though I consider Bandana Dee to be my absolute #1 rn). Bring my boi back!

EDIT: Almost forgot my noms
Andy (Advance Wars): 2x
Skull Kid (Zelda): 2x
Taranza (Kirby): 1x

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on Geno. I don't have an opinion on him.

Boss: Kracko

Chance: 0%
I'll admit, I mostly nominated this to provide a different type of discussion from the norm. I don't even know if they'll add DLC bosses at all. Even then, Kracko isn't that big a priority, all things considered.
Want: 5%
Eh, you can never have too much Kirby. Plus, Kracko would provide a more unique boss fight. However, there are other bosses I'd rather see first.

Nominations: Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x5

 

[DaUsername]

Boss Kracko
Chance: 0%
We haven't had any new bosses added to the game yet and I don't think they're gonna start now. Even if they did, we're probably not gonna get another Kirby boss.
Abstaining from everything else.

9v prediction: 2.9%
rundas prediction: 1.7%
Noms: Atari rep x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Kracko boss

Chance - 0% - We already have a Kirby boss. Even if we were to get another boss, which I find supper unlikely in the first place, Kracko probably wouldn't be on the list.

Want - 20% - Listen, Kirby is my favorite franchise, but I don't think this is worth it. Give me something else, please.


Geno

Chance - 30% - I do think it's about now or never for him; if he doesn't get in this game, he's never going in at all. I don't see him as as #5, as he has a spirit, but otherwise he's got a respectable, but no where certain shot, as his sole claim to fame may just not be enough.

Want - 10% - There are both third parties and Mario characters I want more. I have no connection.

Nominations -
Kunio X 5

 

[FancySmash]

Dark Matter Cloud

Chance: 0.01%
If the Marx Boss battle didn't already shoot his chances into the dirt, then the ever more recognizable Kirby Boss, Whispy Woods, uses his remains as fertilizer. Not to say Kracko isn't a recognizable Kirby Boss, because he certainly is, but Marx really stole this guys thunder, if you could pardon the pun.

Want: 50%
Meh, I could take it or leave it. It'd be more classic Kirby representation, true, but at the end of the day, he'd just be a boss. There are other series in Smash anyways that could use a boss battle but just don't have one. I'll be honest, I'm tired of fighting Master and Crazy hand for nearly all characters that don't even remotely have a boss associated with them.

RPG Woody

Chance: 35%
Things are certainly looking up for the doll. With all the love to third party franchises in the pass and fan favorites in general like Banjo, King K. Rool, and Ridley, Geno's certainly got a bright future, even more so for a literal star. But alas, even the brightest stars grow dim, and that's where we discuss his flaws. First and foremost, he's incredibly obscure. Smash fans might love (and hate) him, but the general person probably doesn't know who Geno is. Give Banjo this, with Rare Replays, he's still getting his face out there. What's Geno done lately? SMRPG Virtual Console? Last I checked, Nintendo (in their infinite wisdom) did away with VC, and replaced it with a service that, as of now, doesn't include SMRPG. Point is, Geno and Banjo both might be obscure, but Banjo still has ways of being seen by today's modern audience, Geno really doesn't. Then there's there's his company. Square Enix. Square Enix, Square Enix, Square Enix. It... really doesn't seem they care one way or the other for him. The reality is, as people have put it, that they'd rather promote more profitable faces. Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and if, if they did get a second character in the game, would they want to go with a one off character from a decades old game that originated from a franchise that they don't even own? Logically, I'd say no. But for those who yearn for the wooden wonder, fear not. At the end of the day, Nintendo and Sakurai still call the shots. The best Square could do is offer up another option only to be turned down if Ninty is adamant about getting their doll back. Of course, there's no proving his mii costume still can't return, but honestly, he's looking pretty good right now. Oh not for fighter 5, of course not, I personally believe that ship has sailed (though considering the chaos that is speculation on 'ol #5 at the moment, I could easily be wrong), but for future DLC, he's a lot more likely. So, unlikely near future, better odds down the road, I'll even 'em out to a 35%.

Want: 5%
Yeah, this is where the awkward part comes in. For everyone who does want to see him, I respect ya. It's hard fighting for a character that constantly seems like an impossible pipe dream. For a character so niche and forgotten to time, it's probably hard to hold hope to see 'em again in Smash. The only thing you can do his keep a little bit of hope inside so that one day that dream can emerge from said pipe (Mario series, thought the pun was warranted). Believe me, as someone who supports a non-Sakurai developed Kirby character like Bandana Dee, I've been in situations where I really feel like the odds are against ya. I in the long run wish you luck on getting that character of yours, and that's where the 5% comes in, but honestly, Geno doesn't do much for me. Never have played SMRPG, though I respect it a bunch for getting Paper Mario's ball rolling. Though I can't deny I'd probably prefer a duo of Geno and Mallow if he were to happen. That said, I have little to connect with there considering I've never played the game. I did play Superstar Saga, the original. Though, at that point, that wasn't Geno. I'm largely sure that was the husk, the doll that the star possessed in SMRGP to interact with those around it. Somehow, the toads of Little Fungitown came across the doll, and decided it'd be cute to use it as a prop in their arcade (or at least that's what I believe). I guess what I'm getting at is, with little connection to him, and his overall appearances in any game being very sparse (seriously, not even in Mario Sports Mix or Fortune Street?), there isn't much for me to get excited over. But please, don't let my lack of a preference for character stop you from wanting him. Sometimes people just want a good comeback, right? And what better way for this character to make a comeback than to be surrounded by those you started the show with. Good luck puppet boy, I might not prefer you myself, but I admire your fight to reach the top!

Predictions:
9-Volt: Wario character huh? I'd think Gamer is already specific to him, but OK. 2.04%
Rundas: I know next to nothing here. How about 1.99%?

Nominations: Meowth x5

 

[MisterMike]

-= Geno =-
Chance: 65%
Geno as a character has a lot of things going in his favor. While he may be an older character who lacks relevancy in terms of the modern gaming landscape and has made few game appearances since his debut, he's remained a frequent topic of discussion within Smash speculation with a very dedicated and vocal fanbase that many character wish they had. He has plenty to work with in terms of a moveset, being able to shoot numerous projectiles, fire his arms like rockets, transform his limbs into guns, or even transform his whole body into a cannon that channels the power of the Mario universe's equivalent of god to strike his enemies down in a massive burst of energy.

The lack of Geno's Mii Costume alongside the release of Hero back in late July is also a point in his favor. Given how popular he is, you'd think that his old Mii Costume would be an obvious inclusion, especially alongside a fellow SquareEnix character, and yet it remains suspiciously unaccounted for. Geno also has the benefit of being implicated in several major rumors/leaks over the past several months, those being the Mii Costumes list and the CacoMallow post.

The former correctly guessed four of the five Mii Costumes that came with Banjo well before they were officially announced and states that the Chocobo Hat and a Mallow Hat are to be coming to the game, but doesn't mention Geno's Costume returning. The latter shows gameplay of a very convincing-looking Mallow Hat with no sign of Geno's Costume in sight. Now it's true that Geno isn't the only character that has been rumored thus far, obviously, but unlike plenty of rumored characters whose evidence has already been deftly debunked, the rumors/leaks surrounding Geno have yet to be definitively disproven, and have in fact even gotten a few things right in the case of the Mii Fighter list.

Want: 75%
I'll admit, I've never once played Super Mario RPG. I've always known of the character thanks to the numerous Newgrounds flash animations I've watched in my early internet days, so it's not like he's completely alien to me, but I've yet to actually play the game he comes from. In spite of that, however, I find myself really rooting for him to get in compared to most other characters people have mentioned. Perhaps this is a result of me getting pretty much all of the characters I've wanted for Smash (namely King K. Rool and Banjo) and I just want to see these people finally get their character. Or maybe it's the sheer enthusiasm his fanbase has for him has simply rubbed off on me. Either way, I very much would like to see him get into Smash.

I'll abstain from rating Kracko.

 

[Tonberry2k]

Geno

Chance: 30%
Geno is the last character that fans have been screaming for for a decade. I think if Geno was going to happen, he would have happened by now. Something behind the scenes, either at Nintendo or Square, has held him up.
Sakurai has been aware of Geno's fanbase since Brawl, he added his costume in 4, and he made him a Spirit in Ultimate (and a 4-star one at that!). If Geno was going to be in Ultimate as a playable character, I think he would have had to be included in the base game. He doesn't make sense as DLC, because unlike every other DLC character, who is a main character from their own, brand-new-to-Smash franchise, Geno is a supporting character from a niche game in a series that is already included. He doesn't have mainstream appeal like Hero or Ryu, (his game is over 20 years old), he doesn't draw in any new players like Cloud or Joker (people who want him are already fans of Smash and already plan to buy all the DLC), and taking a financial gamble on someone who isn't as likely to make money is a bad business move. And at the end of the day, Nintendo and Square are businesses. And honestly, if you're going to go through all the trouble to get the rights to a Square property (after FF and DQ) you're going to go with something that is popular now, like Kingdom Hearts or NieR, or something with a huge legacy like Chrono Trigger or Tomb Raider.
Additionally, with the inclusion of Spirits, a mode where the team took a good, hard look at every potential fighter, created a scenario that felt appropriate for them, thought out what moves and weapons they could use to behave more like the character in question, and got the rights to feature them in Smash, it seems like Geno was considered and they chose to use him as a Spirit instead. This means he probably wasn't considered for the first DLC pack, either.

Fan reaction could turn it around for him in Pack 2, but if they have the choice to get Geno or a new, more lucrative franchise, we all know what the choice will be.
The fact that Sakurai also seems to be going all-out with pleasing fans in this game (and I have a sneaking suspicion that this is his final Smash game, based on the work he's put into it), I may be surprised, but I'm not holding my breath.

Want: 80%
Geno is my most wanted character, and he always has been. Now that B-K and K. Rool and Megaman, and Simon are in, he's the last one (except Dixie) that would make the game feel complete to me. I refuse to get my hopes up, though.

Kracko: As a boss? 0%. We have Marx.

 

[warpenguin55]

Geno

Chance: 20%
I think Geno is definitely out of the running for the fighters pass, but I don't think spirits ever had a chance for this pass. He's not out of contention for the next wave/pass/however they're doing it though, but I think 1st parties will be eligible for that. He's still possible

Want: 50%

Kracko as a boss

Chance 0%
I don't think they're adding bosses. Even if they were, Kracko isn't exactly at the top of the list to be added imo.

Want: 0%

Noms: unsafe wiimote guy x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

G?NO

Chance: 1%
Geno was already judged for Ultimate's roster. He was found wanting and given a 4-star spirit in compensation.

The difference between Geno and every other Nintendo candidate praying that Sakurai, Reggie, and Nintendo didn't really mean what they said about wanting to add more new worlds just like Persona 5 is that Geno has had Sakurai namedrop him as a candidate. Given both Square Enix's early involvement with Ultimate and a concentrated effort to fulfill fan desires, one would be forgiven last year for thinking that Ultimate was Geno's best chance to at last get into Smash Bros.

And yet even when the stars were aligned, Sakurai chose not to make him a character after all. These were the best possible circumstances that Geno could have asked for, and yet he still didn't get his ticket.

I'm of the mind that if he couldn't get in before the third-party floodgates opened, then he's not getting in until the next Smash game at the very soonest. There's just too many other characters to consider now, characters with significantly greater clout and broader reach whose only chance at Smash is going to be in Ultimate's DLC cycles. Geno may have a chance against the rest of Nintendo's leftover candidates, but against the rest of gaming? Tell it to last four newcomers we just got.


Want: 0%
I've never supported Geno, and I don't think I ever will. Geno's arguments are the same as they've been since the Brawl era, and there's nothing I see down his road anymore but a lifetime of self-inflicted disappointment. If I'm going to pick a side character from an ancient obscure game to support, I may as well pick one I've actually played.


Kracko

Chance: 0.1%
We can't even get any additional bosses out. Kracko isn't even in the Top 20 of Best Game bosses, and Marx's presence means it's extremely unlikely we'll see another boss from Kirby.

Want: 1%
No thank you. Whispy Woods would be more Iconic, and Galacta Knight more awesome.


Nominations
Papyrus x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

It's that time of year again: time for The Game Awards. Over the years the reveals from the awards have gotten bigger and better. We even got a Smash reveal during the awards last year in the form of Joker. You can watch The Game Awards here as well as on several other social media platforms at 8:30 pm EST this Thursday.

So from now until the actual awards start, write down what game reveals/trailers you are expecting as well as what Smash character(s) you think could possibly be announced. Also for fun you are free to guess what games you think will win certain categories.

Megadoomer

 

[Calamitas]

I'm not really gonna go into speculation or wish-listing for the Game Awards, since I generally have really low expectations for them. All I really hope for is Breath of the Wild 2 to have gameplay shown - and of course, FP5.

Nominating Concept: Any Xenoblade Newcomer x5

 

[Perkilator]

My Wishlist:
-Sora for FP5
-BOTW2
-The supposed new Crash Bandicoot project

And that's really it. Of course, there's a chance none of these may come true, so I'm keeping expectations low.

Noms: Claude von Rerate x5